market_pulse — Monday 07:00 CEST run: equity/index/commodity marks are verified 2026-07-31 Friday closes (yahoo); BTC/ETH are live Sunday-night CoinGecko prints. Oil (CL=F) -6.0% reflects pre-market peace-talk repricing, not Friday cash close.
us_equity_ideas — Aggregator price waterfall returned null/stooq-garbage for PLTR/VRTX/FANG Friday marks — published from verified exa.ai/Yahoo Jul 31 closes. Fundamentals circuit-open across providers.
forex_rebalancing — Aggregator EUR-cross /history returned empty rows for all five pairs this run — FX scores use Friday EURUSD=X close (1.1538) and web-sourced intervention/peace-talk context. Norges Bank guidance still from 2026-06-17 (46+ days), score capped per recency rule.
portfolio_reality_check — INTC avg_price backend aggregation bug persists — reported verbatim. Hit rate covers 15 days post-reset (2026-07-19), not a full 30-day window.
GeneralMarket Pulse 2 minFriday's tape was narrower than the headline: the Nasdaq rose 1.0% to 25,373.85 on Amazon's earnings reaction while the Russell 2000 fell -0.5% and the VIX dropped -6.44% to 15.99 — calm su…
MARKET PULSE
Friday's tape was narrower than the headline: the Nasdaq rose 1.0% to 25,373.85 on Amazon's earnings reaction while the Russell 2000 fell -0.5% and the VIX dropped -6.44% to 15.99 — calm surface, tense underneath. The bond market still leads: the 10-year jumped to 4.745% even as equities closed green. Monday's setup is binary — OPEC+ ratified +188k bpd Sunday (Aug 2) while Trump signaled resumed Iran peace talks, gapping WTI pre-market -6.0% to $79.59; ISM Manufacturing at 10:00 ET and Palantir earnings after the close are today's catalysts, with Friday's August 7 jobs report the week's macro pivot.
• Trim pre-earnings AI longs (PLTR/AMD) toward 15% cash if VIX spikes post-print
• Add VIXY or SPY put spreads while VIX <16 — convexity is cheap into a binary earnings week
• Hold energy beta (FANG) only above $80 WTI; cut on peace-talk failure reversal
• Rotate to GLD/TLT only after HY OAS clears 3.5%
AIRegime stays risk-on — VIX 15.99, curve +0.47bp, HY OAS 2.84% — but today's top risks are gap risks: PLTR/AMD earnings can move the Nasdaq 2-3% overnight, and peace-talk failure would snap oil back above $90 while the VIX sits near 16. Credit is not confirming stress (HY 2.84%), so hedges stay small and convex, not a full de-gross.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 3 minFriday was a narrow mega-cap rescue: Amazon's +15.3% AWS print dragged the Nasdaq +1.00% to 25,373.85 even as decliners beat advancers 1.3-to-1 and Apple sank -7.4% on a supply-constrained…
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Friday was a narrow mega-cap rescue: Amazon's +15.3% AWS print dragged the Nasdaq +1.00% to 25,373.85 even as decliners beat advancers 1.3-to-1 and Apple sank -7.4% on a supply-constrained guide. The bond market refused to celebrate — the 10-year rose 8bp to 4.745% and the 30-year hit 5.26%, its highest since 2007, as $100 Brent kept September-hike odds near 80%. Over the weekend OPEC+ ratified the final 188k bpd September quota hike (Aug 2) while President Trump signaled resumed Iran peace talks, setting up Monday's oil gap lower as the first real test of whether equities can rally without energy inflation.
How Yesterday Unfolded
Asia Asia extended Thursday's US tech bounce: KOSPI closed +17.91% at 6,595.45 — its largest single-day gain ever — as Samsung (+28%) and SK Hynix (+30%) snapped back, while Tokyo's Nikkei added +4.03% to 64,362.02 after the BoJ held at 1.0% as expected; coordinated yen intervention earlier in the week capped USD/JPY weakness.
Europe Europe printed records then faded: Stoxx 600 touched 656.67 intraday before closing -0.12% at 649.19 on month-end profit-taking; FTSE -0.27%, DAX +0.07%. Energy (+1.2%) led Stoxx sectors as oil firmed into the US close.
US The US session was a two-stock tape: Amazon +15.32% to $271.58 (EPS $5.75 vs $1.99, AWS +37%) against Apple -7.35% to $308.91, leaving the S&P 500 +0.70% at 7,489.72 despite narrow breadth. Exxon and Chevron printed windfall oil profits; the 10-year rose to 4.745% with the 30-year at 5.26%.
Mega-cap quality / Apple (AAPL -7.4%) → Cloud hyperscalers (AMZN +15.3%, MSFT +3.0%) · AAPL -7.35% vs AMZN +15.32% on the day; Nasdaq +1.00% vs Russell 2000 -0.50%
Investors rewarded AI monetization (AWS +37%) and punished supply-constrained guides — a quality-within-quality rotation, not broad risk-on.
Long-duration growth → Energy (XLE leadership in Europe +1.2%; oil majors beat) · 30-year Treasury 5.26% (+19-year high) while equities closed green
Bond vigilantes priced stagflation risk faster than equity multiples adjusted.
Key Drivers
Amazon AWS acceleration proves AI capex monetization — Q2 EPS $5.75 vs $1.99 consensus; AWS revenue +37% to $42.2B drove AMZN +15.3%.
OPEC+ weekend: final 188k bpd hike ratified Aug 2 — Seven core members completed the 2023 voluntary-cut unwind; Trump peace-talk signal adds Monday oil gap risk.
Bridge to Today
Watch whether Monday's pre-market oil gap (peace-talk headlines vs OPEC+ supply add) extends Friday's energy-to-tech rotation or snaps it once ISM Manufacturing (10:00 ET) and Palantir's after-close print set the week's tone.
Over the next 24 hours, expect PLTR to trade the Aug 3 after-close print as a binary on whether government + US commercial AIP growth can justify ~61x sales: consensus looks for ~$1.81B revenue (+81% y/y) and $0.34 EPS…
Q2 earnings Aug 3 after close — consensus $1.812B rev, $0.34 EPSOptions imply 10-12% move; eight consecutive beats sets a high barDIA bid protest withdrawal (Jul 31) re-opens defense contract path
Target
$140.00
Conviction 65%
TradingView's price for PLTR. It is not the last print in this letter.
Into the Aug 5 after-close print, expect AMD to trade the Helios/MI450 ramp narrative: management previously guided ~$11.2B revenue with data-center GPU shipments accelerating in H2, and the Aug 4-5 report is the first…
Q2 earnings Aug 5 after close — consensus ~$11.2B revenueHelios rack-scale MI450 shipments: production confirmed, Q3 initial volumeAnthropic up-to-2GW MI450 deal announced at Advancing AI 2026
Target
$520.00
Conviction 70%
TradingView's price for AMD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next session, expect VRTX to trade Monday's Q2 print and pipeline updates: the stock closed $477.10 Friday ahead of earnings, and the setup is a classic large-cap biotech gate — beat/miss on CF franchise growth…
Q2 earnings Aug 3 — among 140 reports scheduled MondayCF franchise revenue trajectory and pipeline milestonesVertex on Khel Ja Monday earnings focus list alongside PLTR/MAR
Target
$510.00
Conviction 60%
TradingView's price for VRTX. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next week, expect FANG to outperform integrated majors on Permian leverage if oil stabilizes post-gap: at $202.95 Friday (+1.6%) the pure-play shale name keeps beta to WTI without downstream drag, but Monday's…
Trump peace-talk signal gaps oil lower MondayOPEC+ Aug 2: final 188k bpd hike from SeptemberPermian production growth vs peer majors' downstream misses
Target
$225.00
Conviction 60%
TradingView's price for FANG. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 1 minPHIA.AS BUY · RR.L BUY
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
PHIA.AS=
Koninklijke Philips N.V.
6.5
+0.04%
RR.LNEW
Rolls-Royce Holdings plc
6.5
+3.07%
PHIA.ASRECOVERYBUY🔥 3-issue streak=
Koninklijke Philips N.V. • Health Care
6.5/10Conviction
$22.74
▲ +0.04%
Over Monday's first session, expect PHIA to gap on the weekend guidance raise: FY26 adjusted-EBITA margin lifted to 13.5-14.0% (from 12.5-13.0%) and FCF to €1.5-1.7B on a €186M US tariff refund, while Friday's €22.74…
FY26 guidance raised Aug 1 — first tradeable session Monday Aug 3Q2 adjusted EBITA margin 16.4% incl. ~4.2pp tariff refundSEC 6-K filed Jul 31 with full quarterly detail
Target
$26.00
Conviction 65%
TradingView's price for PHIA.AS. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next quarter, expect RR.L to extend its re-rating toward 1,500p+ as civil aerospace hours and defense backlog compound: Friday's close at 1,463p (+3.1%) caps a run from ~1,350p mid-month on sustained engine…
Friday +3.07% to 1,463p on elevated volumeCivil aerospace flying-hour recovery + defense backlog tailwindEuropean defense spending cycle — peer read-across from RTX/LMT prints
Target
$1600.00
Conviction 65%
TradingView's price for RR.L. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 minPYPD BUY
PENNY PLAYS
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
PYPD=
PolyPid Ltd.
7
+5.15%
PYPDPENNYBUY🔥 8-issue streak=
PolyPid Ltd. • Health Care
7/10Conviction
$4.29
▲ +5.15%
Over the next four months into the Nov 28 PDUFA, expect PYPD to stair-step toward $7 as D-PLEX100's Priority Review (accepted Jul 29) de-risks the path — a proxy on the hospital surgical-infection-prevention procurement…
Narrative
2/2
Catalyst
2/2
Balance sheet
1/2
Price suppression
1/2
Institutional
1/1
Social
0/1
PDUFA Nov 28, 2026Q2 earnings Aug 12 — cash runwayPriority Review accepted Jul 29
Target
$7.00
PYPD between stop and target4.29
2.57
Stop on the left, target on the right. Red and green mark those ends only. The tick is the last price.
TradingView's price for PYPD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
INCREASE JPY vs EUR — Intervention aftermath still favors yen vs EUR; at ~0.002% conversion cost, modest add is nearly free insurance.
Conviction 50%
HOLD GBP vs EUR — BoE hike path intact but peace-talk oil drop is a headwind for UK inflation pricing — wait for Aug 7 US data before…
Conviction 40%
Crypto
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minInstitutional flows keep diverging: July ETH ETFs took in $365M vs BTC's $172M (weakest positive month since launch for BTC products), and Friday's -$265M BTC outflow (IBIT -$123M) while ET…
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Institutional flows keep diverging: July ETH ETFs took in $365M vs BTC's $172M (weakest positive month since launch for BTC products), and Friday's -$265M BTC outflow (IBIT -$123M) while ETHA gained $9M extends the rotation into yield-bearing wrappers. BTC holds ~$62.9k Sunday while ETH slips to $1,859 — the macro gate is still Friday's jobs print, not crypto-native news.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC
Bitcoin
5
-0.93%
ETH
Ethereum
6.5
-1.09%
BTCHOLD🔥 28-issue streak
Bitcoin
5/10Conviction
$62900.00
▼ -0.93%
Into the Aug 7 jobs print, expect BTC to stay a macro beta: Sunday $62.9k (-0.9%) holds the low-$60ks but Friday's -$265M ETF outflow says institutions de-risk first when the 30-year is 5.26%. HOLD — July's +$172M…
US jobs Aug 7Daily ETF flow tapePeace-talk oil gap — risk-on headwind for defensive BTC bid
Conviction 50%
TradingView's price for BTC. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 2-4 weeks, expect ETH to keep outperforming BTC on flows even if absolute prices chop: July ETF inflows of $365M vs BTC's $172M plus BlackRock's IBIT→ETHA rotation is the institutional trade. BUY at $1,859…
Weekly ETH vs BTC ETF flow printBitMine weekly accumulationAug 7 jobs — macro gate for absolute upside
Conviction 65%
TradingView's price for ETH. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 2 minOPEC+ completed its 2023 cut unwind Sunday (+188k bpd from September) while Trump's peace-talk signal gaps oil lower into Monday — gold holds above $4,100 as the 30-year stays near 5.26%, a…
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
OPEC+ completed its 2023 cut unwind Sunday (+188k bpd from September) while Trump's peace-talk signal gaps oil lower into Monday — gold holds above $4,100 as the 30-year stays near 5.26%, and copper ETFs tread water as the growth-scare channel competes with supply tightness.
Gold futures +0.4% to $4,123.50 while WTI pre-market marks -6.0% to $79.59 and the 10-year holds 4.745% — a classic de-escalation day-one pattern where energy…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
GLD
Gold
6.5
-1.49%
USO
WTI Crude
4
+7.32%
CPER
Copper
5.5
+0.56%
GoldPRECIOUS METALBUY🔥 2-issue streak
GLD
6.5/10Conviction
$371.54
▼ -1.49%
Over the next week into the Aug 7 jobs print, expect gold to hold $370+ on GLD (≈$4,100 spot) as the 30-year at 5.26% keeps official-sector and fiscal-stress hedging alive even if Monday's oil gap pulls headline…
US jobs Aug 7 — soft print pulls real yields, hard print extends hike odds30-year at 5.26% sustains fiscal-stress bidMonday oil gap lowers near-term CPI fears but not the stock of inflation
Conviction 65%
TradingView's price for GLD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Into Monday's open, expect crude to gap lower on the Trump peace-talk headline and OPEC+'s completed cut unwind — but do not chase the short: Hormuz transits remain a fraction of pre-war levels and the 188k bpd quota…
OPEC+ Aug 2: +188k bpd from September, unwind completeTrump signals Iran peace talks resume MondayUS jobs Aug 7 — demand read-through
Conviction 40%
TradingView's price for USO. It is not the last print in this letter.
Expect copper to trade sideways near $39.50 on CPER until the Aug 7 jobs print resolves the growth-versus-inflation fight: Friday's HG futures +2.3% on supply tightness competes with Monday's oil-led risk-on bid that…
US jobs Aug 7China PMI / stimulus headlinesLME stock draws — monitor weekly
Conviction 55%
TradingView's price for CPER. It is not the last print in this letter.
undefined · 20d illustrative range
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
GeneralTop 5 Risks Right Now 1 min#1 Hawkish central-bank drift / September Fed hike
TOP 5 RISKS RIGHT NOW
#
Risk
Probability
Impact
Trend
1
Hawkish central-bank drift / September Fed hikeNEW
High
High
Stable
2
AI/software earnings dispersion (PLTR tonight, AMD Aug 5)NEW
Medium
High
Escalating
3
Iran peace-talk failure / oil snap-backNEW
Medium
High
Fading
4
Yen intervention / carry-trade unwindNEW
Medium
Medium
Stable
5
Credit complacency / HY spread compressionNEW
Low
High
New
Watch: US jobs report Aug 7 8:30 ET
Stocks
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 5 min30d hit rate 63%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech US
+2.30%
Euro Only
-1.87%
Penny Plays
-4.58%
Anti-Fragile
+0.00%
Trend Follow
+0.00%
Commodities
+0.00%
Crypto
+0.00%
Named holdings. 24 smaller positions (10.23%) are off this picture.
Tech US
Performance
Total Value
$102302.39
Cash
$54750.50
P&L
$2302.39 (+2.30%)
Realized P&L
$-2664.87
TWR
+2.30%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
-2.39%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions46%
Cash54%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
PLTR
8.9
pending
Buy
AMD
2.26
pending
Buy
VRTX
2.3
pending
Buy
FANG
5.4
pending
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$8522.18
—
XOM ×120
$18330.57
—
UNH ×8.49
$3618.61
—
INTC ×14.08
$6182.42
—
MSFT ×11.91
$4848.05
—
SBUX ×11.63
$1239.82
—
CBRE ×8.29
$1239.81
—
AMZN ×4.38
$1190.23
—
+2 more holdings
Track Record
9 On Track · 5 Lagging · 1 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
ASML (2026-07-19)
7/10
-5.5%
Lagging
GOOGL (2026-07-20)
7/10
-5.2%
Lagging
INTC (2026-07-24)
7.5/10
-2.3%
Lagging
META (2026-07-28)
6.5/10
-9.2%
Stopped Out
MSFT (2026-07-28)
6.5/10
+18.1%
On Track
TSM (2026-07-19)
7/10
+1.5%
On Track
UNH (2026-07-19)
6.5/10
-2.7%
Lagging
XOM (2026-07-19)
8/10
+5.5%
On Track
INTC (2026-07-30)
7.5/10
-1.0%
Lagging
SBUX (2026-07-30)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
CBRE (2026-07-30)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
AMZN (2026-07-31)
8/10
+0.0%
On Track
PWR (2026-07-31)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
MPWR (2026-08-01)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
CVX (2026-08-01)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
Euro Only
Performance
Total Value
$98129.72
Cash
$63269.71
P&L
$-1870.28 (-1.87%)
Realized P&L
$-1870.28
TWR
-1.87%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
-1.87%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions36%
Cash64%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
PHIA.AS
55.65
pending
Buy
RR.L
0.8649
pending
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TTE.PA ×283
$20739.46
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
—
KER.PA ×5.3
$1553.28
—
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
—
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
—
GLE.PA ×17.29
$1402.26
—
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
—
NWG.L ×191
$1346.17
—
+2 more holdings
Track Record
11 On Track · 1 Lagging · 1 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
ASML.AS (2026-07-19)
7/10
-9.7%
Stopped Out
TTE.PA (2026-07-19)
7.5/10
+8.4%
On Track
UNA.AS (2026-07-29)
7/10
-3.1%
Lagging
KER.PA (2026-07-30)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
RR.L (2026-07-30)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
VIE.PA (2026-07-30)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
GLE.PA (2026-07-30)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
MNDI.L (2026-07-30)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
SU.PA (2026-07-31)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
UBSG.SW (2026-07-31)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
GSK.L (2026-07-31)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ACA.PA (2026-08-01)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
NWG.L (2026-08-01)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
Penny Plays
Performance
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$84510.79
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
TWR
-4.58%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
-4.58%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions11%
Cash89%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
PYPD
394
pending
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578
$3755.55
—
PYPD ×860
$3593.88
—
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
—
Track Record
1 On Track · 1 Lagging · 3 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
OTLK (2026-07-19)
7/10
-25.2%
Stopped Out
NRXP (2026-07-28)
6.5/10
-11.9%
Stopped Out
GOSS (2026-07-28)
6/10
-17.4%
Stopped Out
PYPD (2026-07-30)
6/10
+5.2%
On Track
STXS (2026-07-30)
7/10
-5.3%
Lagging
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$100000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Cash100%
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Trend Follow
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$100000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Cash100%
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Commodities
Performance
Total Value
$100001.92
Cash
$76870.31
P&L
$1.92 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions23%
Cash77%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
GLD
4.14
pending
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×128
$16577.16
-0.3%
GLD ×8.79
$3267.25
-0.0%
CPER ×83.09
$3287.20
+1.6%
Track Record
2 On Track · 1 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
CL=F (2026-07-19)
8/10
+4.0%
On Track
GC=F (2026-07-27)
6.5/10
-1.0%
Lagging
HG=F (2026-07-30)
6.5/10
+2.3%
On Track
Crypto
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$76809.99
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions23%
Cash77%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
ETH
0.8262
pending
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.1970
$12825.04
—
ETH-USD ×5.45
$10364.98
—
Track Record
1 On Track · 1 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BTC (2026-07-19)
7/10
-1.8%
Lagging
ETH (2026-07-20)
6.5/10
+0.6%
On Track
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +63.20%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Penny-stock risk: very low-priced, thinly traded securities can be illiquid, volatile and easy to manipulate. Spreads can be wide, exits may be impossible at the quoted price, and you can lose your entire investment. Ideas in this category are diligence starting points, not a buy list.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.