market_pulse — Cockpit tiles for the S&P and VIX are still Monday, at 7549.94 and 19.92. The index band uses Tuesday's closes, including the S&P at 7520.93 and VIX at 19.46. The broad dollar tile is still Friday.
market_pulse — Index analytics is dated Nov 10 but its close is still Monday's 7549.94, and breadth of 188 advancers versus 241 decliners does not match Tuesday's near-even tape. The Europe block is a starter list, not the official Stoxx 600.
market_pulse — Nikkei panel d1 of 5.27% is the Friday-to-Tuesday gap. The official Tuesday close was 60459.58, up 2.87% from Monday. Wednesday's close, 61248.59, is up 1.31% and is the figure on the index band. Hang Seng, FTSE MIB, OMX and stale commodity futures were left off the band. Movers returned HTTP 400 and squawk returned HTTP 401.
us_equity_ideas — Screener category=us returned 343 names. The fresh qualifying catalyst was Jefferies' Nov 10 upgrade of RIOT, not another mega-cap. RIOT history returned a single bar, so the one-day change is omitted. Take-Two's Nov 9 bookings miss was not published.
eu_equity_ideas — Screener category=eu returned 31 names. None had a buy-qualifying catalyst inside 48 hours.
penny_plays — Screener category=penny returned an empty list. No sub-$5 name with a dated catalyst cleared the multi-bagger bar.
commodities_outlook — Published settles are cited, not the aggregator quotes. Gold's aggregator print is 4067 dated Nov 11, versus the Tuesday settle of 4030.20. WTI's aggregator print is 86.47 dated Nov 11, versus the Tuesday settle of 86.04, and the prior aggregator bar of 85.27 has the wrong sign versus the settle. Soybeans' aggregator bar is 1195.75 dated Nov 9, versus the cited 1224.5 settle. Gas and copper were not repeated.
crypto_landscape — Bitcoin ETF flow of -95.0 million is the Coinlab/SoSoValue close. Lookonchain printed a bitcoin outflow of 228.74 million and an ether outflow of 137.92 million, against TokenPost's ether figure of -1.32 million. The ether row is the TokenPost print and should be treated as disputed.
trend_follow — Sector ETF history still ends Friday, Nov 6, so every 50-day test misses Monday and Tuesday. QQQ has 41 sessions. ITA's adjusted series is split-broken and was excluded. Buys and exits that already have a pending ticket were not re-ticketed.
forex_rebalancing — Squawk alerts returned HTTP 401. The prediction-market query did not return a usable December hike probability. The fully priced 25bp hike and the 13.6% odds of 50bp are the CNBC FedWatch citation. EURUSD history does include Monday's 1.12221.
risk_cover_playbook — Stock-bond and sector correlations use history through Friday. Initial-claims observations did not return a usable recent tail, and no put/call ratio was priced. Sleeve prices on the book are Friday adjusted closes. Conflicting anti-fragile tickets were already pending, and cash is about 4851, so no new sleeve order was stacked.
yesterday_retrospective — US sector SPDRs have no Tuesday bar, so rotation is the gold-versus-front-end pair rather than an SPDR ranking. The Nikkei panel gap was not used as a one-day change.
portfolio_reality_check — Six books came back fully price-estimated and are excluded from the blended result. The hit rate is 6 of 10 Tech-US open marks with a live price, the prior nine plus AMD, which is now held. Names already through the stop already had a pending sell.
A 0.4% CPI print now puts a half-point December hike in play
Probability: High • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $96463.83
Blended P&L: -3.54% • 30d Hit Rate: +60.00%
1 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 6 of 10 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 12.5%, average loss -10.0%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 9 minThe 2-year yield is 4.73%, up 17bp, and the 10-year is 4.98%. Tuesday's DAX close is 26347.45, so the US slip is not a global washout.
MARKET PULSE
Breadth shows 188 advancers against 241 decliners, and SPY lagged RSP by 1.52pp. Tuesday's S&P close is 7520.93, and the analytics snapshot is still 3.68% under the 52-week high.
Mixed tape constructive +1 Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
AIThe 2-year yield is 4.73%, up 17bp, and the 10-year is 4.98%. Tuesday's DAX close is 26347.45, so the US slip is not a global washout.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,520.93
yday 7,549.94
▼ -0.38%
NASDAQ Data
25,065.87
yday 25,253.14
▼ -0.74%
Nasdaq-100 Data
27,907.63
yday 27,907.63
▲ +3.40%
Dow Jones Data
52,231.89
yday 52,389.75
▼ -0.30%
Russell 2K Data
2,821.38
yday 2,840.81
▼ -0.68%
Euro Stoxx 50 Data
6,327.87
yday 6,290.45
▲ +0.59%
STOXX 600 Data
658.32
yday 656.52
▲ +0.27%
DAX Data
26,347.45
yday 26,267.19
▲ +0.31%
CAC 40 Data
8,278.59
yday 8,233.30
▲ +0.55%
FTSE 100 Data
10,751.60
yday 10,782.90
▼ -0.29%
Nikkei 225 Data
61,248.59
yday 60,459.58
▲ +1.31%
Hang Seng Data
24,547.42
yday 24,547.42
▲ +0.10%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
4,030.20
▼ -2.05%
Energy
WTI crude Data
86.04
yday 85.27
▼ -0.93%
Agriculture
Soybeans Data
1,224.50
▲ +3.57%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
73,551.00
yday 74,551.00
▼ -1.34%
Ether Data
2,063.07
yday 2,115.39
▼ -2.47%
Solana Data
82.99
yday 85.94
▼ -3.43%
US spot Bitcoin ETFs AI
-95.0 $m
yday -201.1 $m
Outbound
US spot Ether ETFs AI
-1.3 $m
yday -184.5 $m
Outbound
Rates
US 2Y Data
4.73
yday 4.56
+17bp
US 10Y Data
4.98
yday 4.88
+10bp
US 30Y Data
5.35
yday 5.26
+9bp
2s10s spread is the 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year yield, in basis points.">2s10s spread Data
25.00
yday 32.00
-7bp
10Y-3M spread Data
68.00
yday 64.00
+4bp
Credit
US HY OAS Data
334.00
yday 342.00
-8bp
Baa-10Y spread Data
156.00
yday 157.00
-1bp
IG OAS Data
91.00 bp
yday 0.93 percent
calm
HY minus IG spread Data
243.00 bp
yday 249.00 bp
watch
Volatility
VIX Data
19.92
yday 19.92
-5.72 (-22.3%)
VIX9D/VIX Data
0.95 ratio
yday 1.36 ratio
calm
VIX/VIX3M Data
0.94 ratio
yday 0.81 ratio
calm
MOVE index Data
92.43 pts
watch
Dollar & FX
US Dollar Index (DXY) Data
102.28
yday 102.28
+0.73 (+0.7%)
EUR/USD Data
1.12
yday 1.12
▼ -0.48%
Breadth
% > 50d Data
60.6%
yday 60.6%
—
% > 200d Data
62.4%
yday 62.4%
—
Adv / Dec Data
188 / 241
yday 189 / 240
—
New hi / lo Data
64 / 16
yday 63 / 16
—
SPY−RSP 1d Data
-1.5pp
yday -1.5pp
—
SPY−RSP 5d Data
-4.83pp
yday -4.83pp
—
SPY−RSP 21d Data
-7.82pp
yday -7.82pp
—
% from 52w Data
-3.68%
yday -5.88%
—
Europe % > SMA50 Data
36.7%
yday 36.7%
—
Europe % > SMA200 Data
70.0%
yday 70.0%
—
Europe % advancing Data
33.3%
yday 33.3%
—
Stock-bond 20d correlation (SPY vs TLT) Data
-0.06 ratio
watch
S&P 500 share above the 200-day Data
62.38 pct
watch
Liquidity
SOFR minus fed funds Data
0.00 bp
calm
Cross-asset
Average pairwise sector correlation Data
0.30 ratio
calm
Cover checks
VIX Data
19.46 / 25.00
yday 19.92
Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread Data
0.25 / -0.20
yday 32.00
Not Triggered
HY OAS Data
334.00 / 500.00
yday 342.00
Not Triggered
S&P drawdown from high Data
-4.05 / -20.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AIOctober CPI at 0.4% and a 2-year yield at 4.73% are an inflation impulse, while HY OAS at 334bp says growth has not broken. Oil and gold did not confirm a commodity boom, so the book uses the inflationary-boom weights rather than a custom mix. Long bonds go to zero because that i
• Let the Anti-Fragile book do the hedging; do not add a second inverse overlay by hand.
AIZero of four hard triggers are fired, so the stance stays risk-on even after a hot CPI. Four internals are on watch and none are in stress, which is not enough to own the inverse sleeve. The quadrant shifts to an inflationary boom because the 2-year rose 17bp to 4.73% while credit, at 334bp of HY OAS, has not broken.
Each symbol is compared with the S&P 500, not with its own price. Left to right (RS-ratio) is relative strength: above 100 means it has been stronger than the market. Bottom to top (RS-momentum) is whether that lead is growing: above 100 means it is getting stronger. Leading, top right, is strong and still improving. Weakening, bottom right, is still ahead but fading. Lagging, bottom left, is behind and still losing ground. Improving, top left, is behind but turning up. Leadership usually moves clockwise. The list and the chart are the same symbols.
Quadrant
Symbols
Leading
XLV Health Care, XLP Staples, XLY Discretionary, XLU Utilities, XLRE Real Estate, XLF Financials, XLB Materials
Improving
XLI Industrials
Weakening
XLE Energy
Lagging
XLC Communication, XLK Technology
Relative rotation (RS-ratio vs momentum)
Yield curve: today vs prior
VIX term structure
Event radar · next 7 days
Date
Event
11-13 12:30
● Producer Price Index US
TradingView
This heatmap is TradingView, with its own data and its mark left in place. It is not the numbers in this letter. The other panels load when you choose them. If a panel is empty, their data-set name changed; the charts above still stand.
Global indices
8/11 above 200d · 5/11 above 50d · 11/11 up today · 2 within 3% of 52w high · best 1m: CAC 40 +4.3% · worst 1m: Nasdaq-100 -9.2%
Index
Last
1d
5d
1m
3m
YTD
vs 52w hi
vs 200d
vs 50d
RS
United States
S&P 500
7,549.94
+2.35%
+0.11%
-2.88%
+0.68%
+10.29%
-3.66%
+3.77%
-1.57%
bench.
Nasdaq-100
27,907.63
+3.40%
-0.29%
-9.17%
-5.79%
+10.53%
-10.62%
-0.25%
-5.73%
Lagging96.2
Nasdaq Composite
25,253.14
+2.74%
+0.35%
-7.13%
-5.08%
+8.65%
-8.50%
+0.64%
-4.49%
Lagging97.4
Dow Jones Industrial
52,389.75
+2.15%
+0.78%
+2.26%
-2.94%
+9.00%
-3.61%
+3.38%
+0.62%
Leading101.8
Russell 2000
2,840.81
+3.15%
+1.24%
+1.67%
-5.85%
+14.46%
-7.42%
+1.16%
+0.06%
Leading100.9
Europe
Euro Stoxx 50
6,290.45
+1.94%
+1.85%
-0.15%
+1.29%
+8.53%
-3.98%
+3.14%
-0.37%
Leading101.0
DAX
26,267.19
+1.73%
+1.10%
+4.11%
+5.02%
+7.26%
-0.65%
+5.49%
+1.75%
Leading103.5
CAC 40
8,233.3
+1.16%
+2.31%
+4.26%
-1.55%
+1.03%
-5.65%
+0.19%
+0.66%
Leading102.1
FTSE 100
10,782.9
+1.02%
+0.20%
+0.96%
+1.72%
+8.57%
-1.17%
+2.74%
+0.34%
Leading101.7
Asia
Nikkei 225
60,459.58
+5.27%
-6.50%
-7.67%
-6.89%
+20.10%
-16.45%
-1.97%
-7.85%
Lagging91.3
Hang Seng
24,547.42
+0.10%
+6.30%
-0.82%
+1.44%
-4.23%
-12.23%
-3.53%
-1.40%
Leading100.0
daily close, local currency (not FX-adjusted); 52w high uses closes
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 1 minTuesday's S&P fell 0.38% to 7520.93 after October CPI rose 0.4%, above the 0.3% forecast, and the 2-year yield jumped 17bp to 4.73%. Europe still closed higher, and Nvidia fell about 5.5% o…
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Tuesday's S&P fell 0.38% to 7520.93 after October CPI rose 0.4%, above the 0.3% forecast, and the 2-year yield jumped 17bp to 4.73%. Europe still closed higher, and Nvidia fell about 5.5% on the CEO probe.
Bridge to Today
Watch whether the 2-year stays near 4.73% into Friday's PPI, or whether the post-CPI dollar bid fades before then.
Nasdaq Composite+2.74% today
−3%+3%
US 10Y4.98%
3%6%
Now. The Nasdaq's move on this tape, and the 10-year. Yesterday's close stays in the sentence above.
GeneralConcept of the Day 1 minWhat the 2s10s spread is actually measuring
CONCEPT OF THE DAY
What the 2s10s spread is actually measuring
Why today : Today's curve shows the 2s10s spread at 25bp, 7bp tighter, because the 2-year rose more than the 10-year.
The 2s10s spread is the 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year yield, in basis points. It is a slope, not a forecast. A positive number means the market charges more to lend for ten years than for two, the ordinary shape when growth is expected to continue. A negative number, an inversion, means the front end is higher than the long end, usually because the policy rate is tight relative to the growth investors will underwrite. The spread can widen because the 10-year rose, because the 2-year fell, or both, and those are different stories. A backup led by the 2-year is a policy-rate story. A backup led by the 10-year is a term-premium or inflation story. The next time this newsletter prints a 2s10s number, check which end moved before reading the slope as a growth signal.
Stocks
StocksUS Equity Ideas 1 minRIOT BUY
US EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
RIOTNEW
Riot Platforms
6.3
—
RIOTNARRATIVEBUYNEW
Riot Platforms • Digital infrastructure
6.3/10Conviction
$18.08
▲ N/A
Into the next filing, Jefferies' Buy and $28 target can support RIOT if the Corsicana lease stays intact and no new shares are issued.
Jefferies BuyPT $28FY25 margin negative
Fundamentals
4/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
—
Jefferies upgraded RIOT to Buy on Nov 10 and raised the target to $28 from $13.JPMorgan lifted its target to $28 from $22 and kept Overweight.The Corsicana powered-land lease is about $28 billion over 15 years.
Mkt Cap
$4.3B
P/E
-6.5
Target
$28.00
Invalidation: The Corsicana lease is cut, delayed, or funded with new shares.
TradingView's price for RIOT. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 1 min
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 6 minStaples and financials still clear the trend rules on Friday's close, the last bar in the sector history. Technology, semiconductors, energy and biotech stay exits until a close back above…
TREND FOLLOW
Staples and financials still clear the trend rules on Friday's close, the last bar in the sector history. Technology, semiconductors, energy and biotech stay exits until a close back above the 50-day.
7 of 16 names with a usable 50-day are above it. QQQ has only 41 sessions, and ITA is excluded because the series looks split-broken.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
XLP
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR
6
-1.28%
XLF
Financial Select Sector SPDR
6
-0.59%
XLV
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
5
-0.06%
XLB
Materials Select Sector SPDR
5
-0.73%
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR
3
-0.02%
XLK
Technology Select Sector SPDR
3
+1.45%
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
3
+3.62%
XBI
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
3
+2.57%
XLPCONSUMER STAPLESBUY🔥 27-issue streak
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR
6/10Conviction
$90.08
▼ -1.28%
Stay with XLP while Friday's close holds above the 50-day; the next add waits on a Tuesday bar that is not in the history yet.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sFriday close is the last bar; Tuesday is mRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sFriday close 90.08 is above the 50-day nea
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
7/10
Trend rule applied to the Friday close; Tuesday's sector bar is missing.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$85.51).
TradingView's price for XLP. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLP · 20d illustrative range
XLFFINANCIALSBUY🔥 12-issue streak
Financial Select Sector SPDR
6/10Conviction
$57.16
▼ -0.59%
Stay with XLF while Friday's close holds above the 50-day; the next add waits on a Tuesday bar that is not in the history yet.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sFriday close is the last bar; Tuesday is mRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sFriday close 57.16 is above a rising 50-da
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
7/10
Trend rule applied to the Friday close; Tuesday's sector bar is missing.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$56.42).
TradingView's price for XLF. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLF · 20d illustrative range
XLVHEALTH CAREHOLD🔥 32-issue streak
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
5/10Conviction
$184.80
▼ -0.06%
XLV is already held and still above its 50-day. It is not a fresh add until a newer bar confirms the relative-strength lead.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo fresh catalyst; the call is the 50-day Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sAbove the 50-day and already held, so not
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
—
Narrative
—
Technicals
5/10
Trend rule applied to the Friday close; Tuesday's sector bar is missing.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$173.35).
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLV · 20d illustrative range
XLBMATERIALSHOLD🔥 22-issue streak
Materials Select Sector SPDR
5/10Conviction
$51.95
▼ -0.73%
XLB is already held and still above its 50-day. It is not a fresh add until a newer bar confirms the relative-strength lead.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo fresh catalyst; the call is the 50-day Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sAbove the 50-day and already held, so not
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
—
Narrative
—
Technicals
5/10
Trend rule applied to the Friday close; Tuesday's sector bar is missing.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$51.33).
TradingView's price for XLB. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLEENERGYEXIT🔥 29-issue streak
Energy Select Sector SPDR
3/10Conviction
$61.62
▼ -0.02%
Exit XLE on the rule: Friday's close is already through the 50-day near 64.51.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo fresh catalyst; the call is the 50-day Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sFriday close 61.62 is below the 50-day nea
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
—
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
Trend rule applied to the Friday close; Tuesday's sector bar is missing.
Invalidation: A close back above the 50-day (~$64.51) would cancel the exit.
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLKTECHNOLOGYEXIT🔥 32-issue streak
Technology Select Sector SPDR
3/10Conviction
$164.74
▲ +1.45%
Exit XLK on the rule: Friday's close is already through the 50-day near 187.91.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo fresh catalyst; the call is the 50-day Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sFriday close 164.74 is below the 50-day ne
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
—
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
Trend rule applied to the Friday close; Tuesday's sector bar is missing.
Invalidation: A close back above the 50-day (~$187.91) would cancel the exit.
TradingView's price for XLK. It is not the last print in this letter.
SMHTECHNOLOGYEXIT🔥 32-issue streak
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
3/10Conviction
$463.96
▲ +3.62%
Exit SMH on the rule: Friday's close is already through the 50-day near 565.88.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo fresh catalyst; the call is the 50-day Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sFriday close 463.96 is below the 50-day ne
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
—
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
Trend rule applied to the Friday close; Tuesday's sector bar is missing.
Invalidation: A close back above the 50-day (~$565.88) would cancel the exit.
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
XBIHEALTH CAREEXIT🔥 6-issue streak
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
3/10Conviction
$152.21
▲ +2.57%
Exit XBI on the rule: Friday's close is already through the 50-day near 156.41.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo fresh catalyst; the call is the 50-day Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sFriday close 152.21 is below the 50-day ne
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
—
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
Trend rule applied to the Friday close; Tuesday's sector bar is missing.
Invalidation: A close back above the 50-day (~$156.41) would cancel the exit.
TradingView's price for XBI. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minSpot bitcoin ETFs logged a fourth outflow day. Bitcoin is 73551, under Tuesday's close, and ether ETF prints disagree by enough that the small cited outflow should not be treated as precise.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Spot bitcoin ETFs logged a fourth outflow day. Bitcoin is 73551, under Tuesday's close, and ether ETF prints disagree by enough that the small cited outflow should not be treated as precise.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
4
-1.34%
ETH-USD
Ether
3.8
-2.47%
BTC-USDWATCH🔥 74-issue streak
Bitcoin
4/10Conviction
$73551.00
▼ -1.34%
Into the next sessions bitcoin stays a rates trade: another ETF outflow day and a 2-year at 4.73% argue against chasing a bounce.
Bitcoin has no protocol cash flow to scoreSpot ETFs logged a fourth outflow day, -95No network catalyst; the driver is the ratNo fresh treasury-buyer headline cleared t73551 is below Tuesday's 74551 close.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
3/10
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
4/10
US spot bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $95.0 million on Nov 10, a fourth straight day.
Invalidation: A daily close back above 76000 with ETF inflows.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Ether should keep tracking bitcoin while ETF flows stay outbound. The cited Nov 10 outflow is small, and a second source disagrees, so size nothing on that print.
No cash-flow metric is the right score forCited ether ETF flow is only -1.32 millionNo upgrade or fee shock; ether is followinThe outflow streak is four days, but the d2063 is below Tuesday's 2115.39 close.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
4/10
Catalyst
3/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
4/10
One cited ether ETF print showed a $1.32 million outflow on Nov 10, the fourth outflow day.
Invalidation: A daily close back above 2200.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 3 minNovember soybeans settled up 42.25 cents at 1224.5 after USDA cut ending stocks to 300 million bushels. Gold fell 2.05% to 4030.20 as the 2-year yield rose to 4.73%.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
November soybeans settled up 42.25 cents at 1224.5 after USDA cut ending stocks to 300 million bushels. Gold fell 2.05% to 4030.20 as the 2-year yield rose to 4.73%.
Soybeans, gold and WTI did not move as one trade. If the 2-year stays near 4.73%, gold's rate headwind matters more over the next few sessions than the one-day…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
ZS=F
Soybeans
7.2
+3.57%
GC=F
Gold
5
-2.05%
CL=F
WTI crude
6
-0.93%
SoybeansAGRICULTUREWATCH
ZS=F
7.2/10Conviction
$1224.50
▲ +3.57%
Into the next few sessions the stocks cut can hold soybeans up, but China's weaker October imports cap how far a one-day spike should be chased.
USDA cut ending stocks 15 million bushels,No COT or fund-flow print was priced for sNov 10 WASDE plus a 150,000-tonne sale to China's October imports fell, so this is aFront month led the board, up a bit more t
Fundamentals
8/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
7/10
USDA cut 2026/27 US ending stocks by 15 million bushels, to 300 million.Private exporters reported 150,000 tonnes sold to Mexico for 2026/27.China's October soybean imports were 7.35 million tonnes, down from September.
Invalidation: January soybeans close back under 1180 cents.
TradingView's price for ZS=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next few sessions gold stays heavy if the 2-year holds near 4.73% after the hot CPI. A fast yield reversal is what would put the bid back.
A 17bp jump in the 2-year is a real-rate hNo futures-positioning series was priced fOctober CPI at 0.4% landed with the yield The inflation-hedge bid failed this print.Tuesday's settle fell 2.05% to 4030.20.
Fundamentals
4/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
4/10
October CPI rose 0.4%, above the 0.3% forecast.The 2-year yield rose 17bp to 4.73%.
Invalidation: The 2-year yield falls back under 4.56%.
TradingView's price for GC=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
WTI can stay heavy into the next sessions while the 'no new strike' line holds. A White House reversal puts the Brent premium back in one session.
The move is diplomacy, not a stocks print No positioning series was priced for WTI.Trump said a new Iran strike was not necesThe peace-hope trade is now a second sessiSecond down day; the session low was 83.88
Fundamentals
5/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
Trump said a renewed strike on Iran was not necessary.Brent's January contract settled at 91.49 after trading under 90.Iran said negotiations were not progressing, which limited the slide.
Invalidation: WTI settles back above 90.
TradingView's price for CL=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 5 min30d hit rate 60%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech-US
-3.54%
Named holdings. 140 smaller positions (29.54%) are off this picture.
Tech-US
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$96463.83
Cash
$10835.40
P&L
$-3536.17 (-3.54%)
Realized P&L
$-3536.17
TWR
-3.54%
Sharpe
-4.43
Max DD
-3.54%
Sortino
-4.29
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions89%
Cash11%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
RIOT
11.99
pending
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$8299.16
-2.6%
XOM ×129
$21187.34
+7.6%
UNH ×8.49
$3440.52
-4.9%
INTC ×14.08
$818.51
-32.6%
MSFT ×12.33
$6575.84
+29.6%
AMZN ×5.95
$1612.41
+0.2%
CVX ×7.29
$1540.20
+6.2%
FRO ×38.46
$1687.22
+8.5%
+51 more holdings
Track Record
6 On Track · 2 Lagging · 2 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
CRM (2026-10-13)
6.7/10
-15.3%
Stopped Out
MSFT (2026-10-29)
7.3/10
+29.6%
On Track
UNH (2026-10-15)
7.2/10
-4.9%
Lagging
TSM (2026-10-16)
6.3/10
-2.6%
Lagging
AMZN (2026-10-20)
6.8/10
+0.2%
On Track
SLB (2026-10-24)
7/10
-17.0%
Stopped Out
LLY (2026-10-30)
7/10
+21.7%
On Track
XOM (2026-10-31)
7/10
+7.6%
On Track
CVX (2026-11-01)
7.7/10
+6.2%
On Track
AMD (2026-11-10)
6.8/10
+9.7%
On Track
Euro-only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$97821.52
Cash
$14987.73
P&L
$-2178.48 (-0.22%)
Realized P&L
$-2178.48
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes were unavailable, so every line below is marked at cost rather than a fresh price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702
$702.62
—
TTE.PA ×368
$27276.04
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
—
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
—
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
—
GLE.PA ×22.15
$1755.04
—
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
—
NWG.L ×191
$1346.17
—
+47 more holdings
Penny Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes were unavailable, so every line below is marked at cost rather than a fresh price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×232
$3755.55
—
PYPD ×1564
$6940.50
—
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
—
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$4850.98
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes were unavailable, so every line below is marked at cost rather than a fresh price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65
$25000.00
—
IEF ×164
$15012.91
—
DBC ×654
$20000.00
—
SPLV ×273
$20128.36
—
TLT ×194
$15007.74
—
Trend Follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$68979.54
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes were unavailable, so every line below is marked at cost rather than a fresh price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86
$5539.52
—
XLK ×22.6
$4510.76
—
SMH ×8.53
$5218.24
—
XLV ×30.27
$5207.77
—
XBI ×32
$5207.77
—
XLB ×93.53
$4954.78
—
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$26717.65
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes were unavailable, so every line below is marked at cost rather than a fresh price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×206
$26795.83
—
GLD ×30.1
$11738.20
—
CPER ×150
$5929.12
—
SLV ×93.58
$5545.24
—
PPLT ×66.63
$1111.38
—
BNO ×35.14
$1850.57
—
URA ×23.16
$1066.93
—
UGA ×26.78
$3377.87
—
+11 more holdings
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$32370.73
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes were unavailable, so every line below is marked at cost rather than a fresh price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5510
$35015.45
—
ETH-USD ×14.91
$28949.67
—
SOL-USD ×26.81
$2795.91
—
XRP-USD ×628
$868.24
—
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +60.00%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
2s10s spread
The 2s10s spread is the 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year yield, in basis points.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
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