GeneralMarket Pulse 2 minTuesday's tape is a dual-engine record bid: the S&P 500 and Dow hit fresh all-time highs (+1.1% / +1.4%) as Palantir surged 22%+ on $1.94B Q2 revenue (+93% y/y) while WTI slid toward $76-81…
MARKET PULSE
Tuesday's tape is a dual-engine record bid: the S&P 500 and Dow hit fresh all-time highs (+1.1% / +1.4%) as Palantir surged 22%+ on $1.94B Q2 revenue (+93% y/y) while WTI slid toward $76-81 on Hormuz-deal optimism — VIX held 15.6, so the move is still a low-fear melt-up, not panic-covering. The cross-market tell is oil-equity: crude -4.5% did not stop tech leadership, which means the market is pricing geopolitical relief ahead of Friday's jobs print (consensus +91k). Into tonight's AMD after-close guide, watch whether AI-hardware multiples expand with Palantir's software proof-point or compress if the chip guide disappoints.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 1 minMonday was a de-escalation rip: S&P +1.48% to 7,600.61, Dow record 53,178.41, WTI -5% on Trump's Iran peace-talk signal, 10Y -5bp to 4.68%. XLY +2.99% led; XLB -2.34% lagged.
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Monday was a de-escalation rip: S&P +1.48% to 7,600.61, Dow record 53,178.41, WTI -5% on Trump's Iran peace-talk signal, 10Y -5bp to 4.68%. XLY +2.99% led; XLB -2.34% lagged.
How Yesterday Unfolded
Europe Stoxx 600 +0.45% as Brent -5% to $83.47; AstraZeneca sold off on BMS merger talk.
Bridge to Today
Tuesday confirmed the de-escalation bid extended: Palantir's +22% day and fresh index records show software AI demand is monetizing — tonight's AMD guide decides whether hardware catches up.
Over the next 1-2 weeks, expect PLTR to hold $145+ as Tuesday's +22% re-rate validates sovereign-AI demand: Q2 revenue $1.94B (+93% y/y), commercial +149% to $764M, FY26 guide raised to $8.15-8.16B. Conviction 8.5 = two…
Aug 4: Q2 revenue $1.94B beat; commercial +149%FY26 revenue guide $8.15-8.16B (+82% y/y)S&P 500 fresh record — risk-on tape
Mkt Cap
$420.0B
P/E
61.0
Target
$210.00
Conviction 85%
TradingView's price for PLTR. It is not the last print in this letter.
Into tonight's after-close Q2 print, expect AMD to trade the data-center GPU guide as the hardware leg of Palantir's software proof: shares +6% pre-earnings with OpenAI/Meta backlog priced. Conviction 7.0 = dated Aug 4…
Aug 4 after-close: Q2 earnings + September guidePalantir commercial +149% — enterprise AI spend signalTuesday +6% pre-earnings momentum
Target
$195.00
Conviction 70%
TradingView's price for AMD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next session, expect CAT to extend Tuesday's +7% industrial bid: Q2 beat + raised revenue guidance and lower-end tariff-cost outlook give the Dow a non-AI engine while data-center power demand supports…
Aug 4: Q2 beat; revenue guidance raisedTariff cost outlook at low end of prior rangeDow record +1.4% Tuesday
Target
$460.00
Conviction 70%
TradingView's price for CAT. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 2 weeks, expect PHIA to hold €24+ as the Aug 1 guidance raise (FY26 adj-EBITA 13.5-14.0%) continues to re-rate the recovery — conviction 6.5 = dated catalyst with visible margin expansion.
Into AMD's Aug 4 earnings, expect ASML as the EU lithography bottleneck with less single-print binary risk — conviction 6.5 = sector tailwind from Monday Nasdaq +2.13% + AMD catalyst this week.
AMD Q2 Aug 4 — Helios guide sets EUV toneMonday Nasdaq +2.13%PLTR beat confirms AI spend
Target
$750.00
Conviction 65%
TradingView's price for ASML.AS. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 minPYPD BUY
PENNY PLAYS
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
PYPD=
PolyPid Ltd.
7
+1.63%
PYPDPENNYBUY🔥 9-issue streak=
PolyPid Ltd. • Health Care
7/10Conviction
$4.36
▲ +1.63%
Into Nov 28 PDUFA, expect PYPD toward $7 as D-PLEX100 Priority Review (Jul 29) de-risks the path — proxy on hospital-acquired-infection prevention. Bull $9; bear $2.50 on AdComm surprise Aug 12.
Narrative
2/2
Catalyst
2/2
Balance sheet
1/2
Price suppression
1/2
Institutional
1/1
Social
0/1
PDUFA Nov 28Q2 earnings Aug 12Priority Review Jul 29
Target
$7.00
PYPD between stop and target4.36
2.57
Stop on the left, target on the right. Red and green mark those ends only. The tick is the last price.
TradingView's price for PYPD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
DECREASE NOK vs EUR — Oil whipsaw hurts NOK short-term.
Conviction 40%
Crypto
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 1 minBitcoin flat at $63,777 despite S&P record highs — crypto still lagging the equity risk-on bid, keeping BTC a macro-beta hold rather than a leadership long.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Bitcoin flat at $63,777 despite S&P record highs — crypto still lagging the equity risk-on bid, keeping BTC a macro-beta hold rather than a leadership long.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC
Bitcoin
6
+0.05%
ETH
Ethereum
5
-1.09%
BTCHOLD🔥 29-issue streak
Bitcoin
6/10Conviction
$63777.00
▲ +0.05%
Into Friday jobs, expect BTC to stay $62-65k unless AMD/guide tonight re-ignites beta — conviction 6.0 HOLD: equity records without crypto follow-through says institutions still de-risk alts first.
10Y 4.68% (-5bp Mon)S&P +1.48% MonAug 7 jobs
Conviction 60%
TradingView's price for BTC. It is not the last print in this letter.
Expect ETH to lag BTC near-term on L2 fee compression — conviction 5.0 HOLD.
ETH -1.1% vs BTC +1.4%L2 fee migrationSpot ETH ETF flows
Conviction 50%
TradingView's price for ETH. It is not the last print in this letter.
undefined · 20d illustrative range
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 2 minOil extended Monday's de-escalation slide (WTI ~$81, -4.5% Tuesday) while gold held $4,120 — the cross-commodity read is inflation-relief + record equity highs, not a growth scare.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Oil extended Monday's de-escalation slide (WTI ~$81, -4.5% Tuesday) while gold held $4,120 — the cross-commodity read is inflation-relief + record equity highs, not a growth scare.
WTI -4.5% Tuesday alongside S&P +1.1% record mirrors Monday's oil-equity inverse — if Hormuz deal headlines hold through Friday jobs, expect energy to lag and…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
GLD
Gold
6
+0.05%
LIT
Lithium
6.5
+4.60%
USO
WTI Crude
4
-4.50%
GoldPRECIOUS METALHOLD🔥 3-issue streak
GLD
6/10Conviction
$371.71
▲ +0.05%
Expect gold to hold $370+ on GLD as Monday's oil relief did not pull real yields meaningfully lower — conviction 6.0 HOLD.
US jobs Aug 7Iran talk credibility10Y at 4.68%
Conviction 60%
TradingView's price for GLD. It is not the last print in this letter.
undefined · 20d illustrative range
LithiumINDUSTRIAL METALBUY
LIT
6.5/10Conviction
$69.81
▲ +4.60%
Expect LIT to extend +4.6% move on EV restocking + AI hardware optimism — conviction 6.5 BUY.
LIT +4.6% momentumEV battery restockingChina PMI
Conviction 65%
TradingView's price for LIT. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 3 min30d hit rate 63%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Euro Only
-1.87%
Penny Plays
-4.58%
Anti-Fragile
+0.00%
Trend Follow
+0.00%
Commodities
+0.00%
Crypto
+0.00%
Named holdings. 24 smaller positions (9.74%) are off this picture.
Tech US
Performance
Total Value
$98717.85
Cash
$54750.50
P&L
$-1282.15 (-1.28%)
Realized P&L
$-2664.87
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
PLTR
8.96
pending
Buy
AMD
2.26
pending
Buy
CAT
1.24
pending
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$8706.29
+2.2%
XOM ×120
$18446.79
+0.6%
UNH ×8.49
$3468.12
-4.2%
INTC ×14.08
$1402.30
-77.3%
MSFT ×11.91
$5939.81
+22.5%
SBUX ×11.63
$1211.80
-2.3%
CBRE ×8.29
$1239.81
+0.0%
AMZN ×4.38
$1217.88
+2.3%
+2 more holdings
Euro Only
Performance
Total Value
$98129.72
Cash
$63269.71
P&L
$-1870.28 (-1.87%)
Realized P&L
$-1870.28
TWR
-1.87%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
-1.87%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions36%
Cash64%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
PHIA.AS
55.65
pending
Buy
ASML.AS
0.8914
pending
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TTE.PA ×283
$20739.46
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
—
KER.PA ×5.3
$1553.28
—
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
—
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
—
GLE.PA ×17.29
$1402.26
—
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
—
NWG.L ×191
$1346.17
—
+2 more holdings
Penny Plays
Performance
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$84510.79
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
TWR
-4.58%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
-4.58%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions11%
Cash89%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
PYPD
388
pending
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578
$3755.55
—
PYPD ×860
$3593.88
—
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
—
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$100000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Cash100%
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Trend Follow
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$100000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Cash100%
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Commodities
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$76870.31
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions23%
Cash77%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
LIT
22.02
pending
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×128
$16625.19
—
GLD ×8.79
$3268.86
—
CPER ×83.09
$3235.64
—
Crypto
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$76809.99
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions23%
Cash77%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
BTC-USD
0.0000
—
Buy
BTC
0.0241
pending
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.1970
$12825.04
—
ETH-USD ×5.45
$10364.98
—
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +63.20%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Penny-stock risk: very low-priced, thinly traded securities can be illiquid, volatile and easy to manipulate. Spreads can be wide, exits may be impossible at the quoted price, and you can lose your entire investment. Ideas in this category are diligence starting points, not a buy list.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.