|
|
⚠ Data quality: DEGRADED
market_pulse — Tuesday 07:00 CEST run — US index/VIX/^TNX marks are Monday Aug 10 cash closes; EURUSD/GC=F/CL=F/BTC reflect live Tuesday prints.
us_equity_ideas — CSCO/CRWV live quotes unavailable from Stooq (Cloudflare); Friday/Monday AlphaVantage marks used.
eu_equity_ideas — MSLH.L live quote unavailable; Friday LSE close ~175p used for sizing.
portfolio_reality_check — Post-reset pick history still sparse (23 days since 2026-07-19); hit_rate_last_30d_pct carried from available post-reset window.
penny_plays — Zero penny ideas published — no sub-$5 name cleared the ≥6/10 multibagger bar.
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THE BOTTOM LINE
|
RISK-ON
WTI back above $82 and a flat S&P at 7,753 into Wednesday CPI make this a stagflation-hedge day — long GLD/USO and keep semicap earnings (CSCO/AMAT) as the equity expression of the AI capex cycle.
Today's Top Picks
CSCO
· us_equity_ideas — Aug 12 Q4 FY26 earnings after close (Cisco IR Aug 5)
GLD
· commodities_outlook — GLD $402.54 Aug 10 (+1.0% vs Fri)
AMAT
· us_equity_ideas — Aug 13 Q3 FY26 earnings after close (Applied Materials IR Jul 23)
USO
· commodities_outlook — CL=F $82.20 Aug 11
MSLH.L
· eu_equity_ideas — Aug 10 2026 HY results presentation 10:00 GMT
|
Biggest Risk
July CPI hot print re-ignites Fed hike odds
Probability: Medium • Impact: High
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Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $713618.07
Blended P&L: +2.31% • 30d Hit Rate: +0.00%
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YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Monday's session was Hormuz-and-dilution: US equities edged down from Friday's record (S&P -0.06% to 7,753.11, Nasdaq -0.32%) as Brent/WTI jumped ~5% on fading reopening hopes, Intel fell ~4% on a $15B stock offering, and VIX rose to 15.46 — commodity inflation angst overpowered Friday's soft-payrolls relief.
How Yesterday Unfolded
US
US cash opened firm then faded: Dow -0.11% to 53,976, S&P -0.06% to 7,753.11, Nasdaq -0.32% to 26,605 as oil rallied ~5% and Intel dropped on a $15B dilutive offering announced Aug 10.
Europe
European benchmarks held near records in a quiet session ahead of CPI — Stoxx resilient as energy importers weighed Hormuz headlines against still-strong Q2 earnings momentum (+22.4% STOXX 600 profit growth est.).
Capital Rotation
Growth/Tech (XLK -0.88%) → Energy (XLE +3.47%)
· XLK -0.88% vs XLE +3.47% on Aug 10; WTI +~5%
Hormuz reopening hopes faded, lifting energy while long-duration tech faded on higher yields and Intel dilution.
Risk equities → Defensive health (XLV +2.61%)
· XLV +2.61% vs S&P -0.06%
Health care outperformed as investors hedged the CPI/oil binary without fully de-risking.
Key Drivers
Strait of Hormuz reopening hopes fade
— Iran raised new conditions; Brent rallied ~5% to ~$87.72 and WTI settled ~$82.13.
Intel $15B common stock offering
— INTC announced Aug 10 a $15B offering (+$2.25B greenshoe) to fund AI capex; shares fell ~4%.
10Y yield rose to 4.70%
— Bonds sold off despite equity softness — oil/inflation premium repriced ahead of Wednesday CPI.
Bridge to Today
Wednesday's July CPI (Aug 12, 8:30 a.m. ET) is the decisive test of whether Monday's oil bid becomes a sustained inflation scare or fades once the print clears.
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COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Oil is back in the driver seat: USO +6.7% Monday as WTI holds $82.20 while GLD grinds to $402.54 (+1.0%) — stay long GLD and add USO on the Hormuz premium into Wednesday CPI.
Cross-Commodity Macro Linkage
GLD +1.0% with WTI +4.9% and 10Y at 4.70% signals markets hedging a CPI/oil double-hit more than pricing disinflation — if Aug 12 CPI prints above 3.4% y/y with oil still >$80, expect energy to outperform precious metals over the next few sessions.
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Gold
PRECIOUS METAL BUY 🔥 11-issue streak
GLD
|
$402.54
▲ +1.02%
|
Into Wednesday CPI, expect GLD to hold Monday's bid as gold trades ~$4,467 with safe-haven demand rising alongside oil — conviction 7.5 BUY at $402.54. Hormuz uncertainty plus a record equity tape argues for keeping the hedge even if real yields tick up.
⚡ GLD $402.54 Aug 10 (+1.0% vs Fri) ⚡ GC=F ~$4,467 Aug 11 ⚡ July CPI Aug 12 8:30 a.m. ET ⚡ HY OAS 2.70% (Aug 7)
Invalidation: Real 10-year yields rise above 2.5% on a sustained basis post-CPI.
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|
WTI Crude
ENERGY BUY 🔥 11-issue streak
USO
|
$125.92
▲ +6.73%
|
Over the next week, add USO: WTI at $82.20 (+4.9% vs Friday) reflects a renewed Hormuz risk premium after reopening talks stalled — conviction 6.5 BUY at $125.92. CPI Wednesday is the swing factor, but near-term supply fear dominates.
⚡ CL=F $82.20 Aug 11 ⚡ USO +6.7% Aug 10 session ⚡ Iran/Hormuz headline risk Aug 10 ⚡ July CPI Aug 12
Invalidation: WTI sustains below $75 for two consecutive weeks.
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Silver
PRECIOUS METAL WATCH 🔥 4-issue streak
SLV
|
$59.41
▲ +3.32%
|
Watch SLV for high-beta catch-up if GLD holds through CPI — conviction 4.5 WATCH at $59.41; silver is participating (+3.3% Monday) but still a secondary hedge.
⚡ SLV +3.3% Aug 10 ⚡ GLD firm ⚡ CPI Aug 12
Invalidation: SLV breaks below $55 on rising real yields.
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MARKET PULSE
|
S&P 500
7753.11
▼ -0.06%
|
NASDAQ
26605.36
▼ -0.32%
|
Dow Jones
53975.98
▼ -0.11%
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Russell 2K
3017.397
▼ -0.56%
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VIX
15.46
▲ +3.76%
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EUR/USD
1.1545
▼ -0.09%
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Gold
4466.7
▲ +1.61%
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Oil (WTI)
82.2
▲ +4.86%
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Bitcoin
64054
▼ -1.39%
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10Y Yield
4.699
▲ +0.00%
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Tuesday's pre-US-open tape is a stagflation cross-current: Monday cash left the S&P at 7,753.11 (-0.06% from Friday's record) with VIX at 15.46 (+3.8%) while WTI holds $82.20 (+4.9% vs Friday) and gold ~$4,467 — energy and duration are pricing Hormuz/CPI risk, not pure risk-on. The tell is yields rising to 4.70% (+0.8%) even as equities slip — growth-scare payrolls meet an oil-shock bid. Next gate: July CPI prints Wednesday Aug 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET (consensus ~3.4% y/y headline per TS2).
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US EQUITY IDEAS
|
CSCO
GROWTH BUY 🔥 2-issue streak
Cisco Systems, Inc. • Technology
|
$121.43
▲ +0.94%
|
Over the next 48 hours, expect CSCO to trade into Wednesday's fiscal Q4 print with AI-networking orders in focus — conviction 7.5 BUY at $121.43. UBS (Aug 4) flagged possible networking revenue >$9.6B (+26% y/y) and orders +29% y/y; one strong sell-side beat setup caps at 7-7.5 until the print proves backlog conversion.
⚡ Aug 12 Q4 FY26 earnings after close (Cisco IR Aug 5) ⚡ Consensus EPS $1.17 / revenue ~$16.82B ⚡ UBS Aug 4 preview: networking beat, orders +29% y/y ⚡ July CPI Aug 12 macro cross-current
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Mkt Cap
N/A
| |
P/E
N/A
| |
Beta
N/A
| |
Target
$135.00
| |
Conviction
7.5/10
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Invalidation: Q4 revenue misses $16.5B or product gross margin contracts below 65%.
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AMAT
GROWTH BUY
Applied Materials, Inc. • Technology
|
$522.12
▲ N/A
|
Into Thursday's fiscal Q3 print, expect AMAT to hold the WFE upcycle bid — conviction 7.0 BUY at $522.12. Company guided $8.95B revenue / $3.36 non-GAAP EPS; Street now ~$9.0B/$3.39 with October guide bar near $10.25B after peer beats — one strong guidance signal supports 7.0 pre-earnings.
⚡ Aug 13 Q3 FY26 earnings after close (Applied Materials IR Jul 23) ⚡ Guided revenue $8.95B (+23% y/y) ⚡ Street consensus ~$9.0B / EPS $3.39 ⚡ DRAM/WFE cycle commentary on call
|
Mkt Cap
N/A
| |
P/E
N/A
| |
Beta
N/A
| |
Target
$580.00
| |
Conviction
7/10
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Invalidation: July-quarter revenue misses $8.7B or October guide below $9.5B.
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EU EQUITY IDEAS
|
MSLH.L
RECOVERY BUY 🔥 2-issue streak
Marshalls plc • Industrials
|
$175.00
▲ N/A
|
Over the next 1–2 weeks, expect MSLH.L to digest Aug 10 HY results and the Transform & Grow cost-save plan — conviction 6.0 HOLD-at-scale at 175p. Monday's HY presentation (10:00 GMT Aug 10) is the fresh catalyst; revenue was in line at £205m in May — need margin stabilization to re-rate further.
⚡ Aug 10 2026 HY results presentation 10:00 GMT ⚡ May 13 AGM trading update revenue £205m in line ⚡ Transform & Grow £9m annualized savings ⚡ STOXX 600 Q2 earnings +22.4% y/y sector tailwind
|
Mkt Cap
N/A
| |
P/E
N/A
| |
Beta
N/A
| |
Target
$195.00
| |
Conviction
6/10
|
Invalidation: HY adjusted operating margin falls below 8% with no cost-save progress.
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PENNY PLAYS
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FOREX REBALANCING RADAR
Base currency: EUR — every stance below is relative to holding this currency's cash instead of EUR.
| Currency (vs EUR) |
Short-term |
Medium-term |
Long-term |
| USD 🔥7 |
AVOID (-4) |
NEUTRAL (0) |
NEUTRAL (0) |
|
Expect USD softer post-NFP but Tuesday oil bid and CPI Aug 12 cap conviction; 10Y at 4.70% keeps carry alive until the print.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces
⚠ Contrarian watch: A hot CPI (>3.4% y/y) on Aug 12 could violently unwind USD shorts if the Fed re-prices hikes.
|
| JPY 🔥14 |
SEEK (5) |
SEEK (3) |
SEEK (2) |
|
Expect yen demand on Monday equity softness and oil-shock hedging; EUR/JPY softer as US yields tick up but risk appetite wobbles.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces
⚠ Contrarian watch: MoF verbal intervention risk if USD/JPY rips on a hot CPI — size tactically.
|
| GBP 🔥39 |
SEEK (3) |
SEEK (3) |
NEUTRAL (1) |
|
Hold GBP carry at BoE 3.75% with oil-driven inflation risk offset by softer US labor data; Aug 14 UK GDP adds a domestic catalyst.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces
|
| CHF 🔥14 |
NEUTRAL (0) |
NEUTRAL (0) |
NEUTRAL (-1) |
|
CHF hedges CPI/oil binary but offers no carry — neutral until Aug 12 CPI.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces
|
| NOK 🔥5 |
SEEK (4) |
SEEK (3) |
SEEK (2) |
|
Oil at $82.20 and Monday energy rally support NOK; Norges Bank decision Aug 13 adds a domestic catalyst.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces
|
Suggested rebalancing actions
DECREASE USD vs EUR — Trim USD into CPI — oil bid is re-strengthening the dollar near-term.
INCREASE NOK vs EUR — Add NOK — WTI $82+ and energy rally support petroleum FX into Norges Aug 13.
INCREASE JPY vs EUR — Add JPY as a CPI/oil hedge while US equities consolidate at records.
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TOP 5 RISKS RIGHT NOW
|
#1 — July CPI hot print re-ignites Fed hike odds
🔥 4
Stable
Probability: MEDIUM
• Impact: HIGH
• Horizon: 1 week
Watch: July CPI release Aug 12 8:30 a.m. ET; Consensus ~3.4% y/y headline; Core CPI ~2.5% y/y expected
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#2 — Iran/Hormuz oil premium snaps back (WTI >$78)
🔥 10
Escalating
Probability: MEDIUM
• Impact: HIGH
• Horizon: 1-5 days
Watch: WTI $82.20 Aug 11; Brent ~$87+ Aug 10; Strait of Hormuz headlines
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|
#3 — Labor market rolling over (NFP -23k, revisions)
🔥 4
Stable
Probability: HIGH
• Impact: HIGH
• Horizon: 1-3 months
Watch: 3-month avg payrolls +20k; Participation 61.4%; Aug 12 CPI + Aug retail sales Aug 14
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#4 — Credit complacency / HY spread compression
🔥 10
Stable
Probability: MEDIUM
• Impact: MEDIUM
• Horizon: 2-4 weeks
Watch: HY OAS 2.70% (Aug 7); IG OAS 0.78%; VIX 15.46 rising but still contango (IVTS ~0.80)
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#5 — Record-equity complacency into macro binaries
New
Probability: MEDIUM
• Impact: MEDIUM
• Horizon: 1-2 weeks
Watch: S&P 0.06% from ATH after Mon slip; VIX 15.46 (+3.8% Mon); CPI Aug 12 + heavy earnings (CSCO/AMAT)
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CRASH / BEAR-MARKET COVER PLAYBOOK
Regime: RISK-ON
| VIX |
15.46 / 25 |
Not Triggered
|
| 10Y-2Y spread |
0.47 / -0.2 |
Not Triggered
|
| HY OAS |
2.7 / 5 |
Not Triggered
|
| S&P 500 drawdown from 52w high |
-0.06 / -10 |
Not Triggered
|
If triggered today — do this now
• Raise cash toward 15% if VIX closes above 20 with CPI hot and oil >$82
• Add GLD/TLT if 10Y falls below 4.60% on soft CPI
• Use SH/VIXY if S&P loses 7,650 on stagflation combo
• Trim semicap beta if AMAT guide disappoints Aug 13
Hedge instruments: GLD, TLT, SH, VIXY
• Target cash: 15%
Zero of four crash triggers fired (VIX 15.46, HY OAS 2.7%, curve +47bps, S&P -0.06% from highs) but Monday's oil +5% and CPI Wednesday argue for smaller gross risk — stay risk-on with tighter stops into Aug 12.
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|
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Bitcoin slipped to ~$64,054 (-1.4% vs Friday) even as spot BTC/ETH ETFs drew ~$1.1B last week (Aug 3–7) — institutional flows are supportive but CPI/oil anxiety is capping the breakout above $65k. ETH at $1,875 is testing support after a -2.1% overnight move.
Institutional Moves
BlackRock
IBIT captured ~80% of the Aug 3–7 ~$865M BTC ETF inflow week per SoSoValue/Farside data cited Aug 9–11.
Adoption Landscape
[United States] Combined US spot BTC+ETH ETF inflows reached ~$1.1B in the Aug 3–7 week (BTC ~$853–865M, ETH ~$245M) while prices stayed below $65k/$1,920 resistance.
Asset Ideas
|
BTC
BUY 🔥 37-issue streak
Bitcoin
|
$64054.00
▼ -1.39%
|
Over the next week, expect BTC to retest $65–66k if ETF inflows resume post-CPI — conviction 6.0 BUY at $64,054. Flows are constructive but price is lagging; need CPI clarity to break overhead supply.
⚡ Aug 3–7 BTC ETF inflows ~$853M ⚡ July CPI Aug 12 ⚡ $65k resistance ⚡ Oil/inflation cross-current
Invalidation: BTC closes below $62k on a weekly basis.
|
|
ETH
HOLD 🔥 37-issue streak
Ethereum
|
$1874.52
▲ +0.00%
|
Near term, expect ETH to stay range-bound $1,850–1,920 until CPI clears — conviction 5.0 HOLD at $1,875. ETF inflows (~$245M last week) are not yet overcoming macro headwinds.
⚡ ETH ETF inflows ~$245M week ended Aug 7 ⚡ $1,920 resistance ⚡ CPI Aug 12
Invalidation: ETH breaks below $1,850 on rising real yields.
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WHAT'S COMING UP
| 2026-08-12 |
CSCO Q4 FY26 earnings after close
· us_equity_ideas
|
| 2026-08-12 |
July CPI 8:30 a.m. ET
· risk_top5
|
| 2026-08-13 |
AMAT Q3 FY26 earnings after close
· us_equity_ideas
|
| 2026-08-13 |
Norges Bank rate decision
· forex_rebalancing
|
| 2026-08-14 |
UK GDP print
· forex_rebalancing
|
|
|
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
|
Tech US
Performance
|
Total Value
$101961.22
|
Cash
$42050.97
|
P&L
$1961.22 (+1.96%)
|
Realized P&L
$-2664.87
|
|
TWR
+2.30%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
-2.39%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
BUY
CSCO
×7.21
• dispatched
Pre-earnings add on AI networking order momentum into Aug 12 print.
BUY
AMAT
×1.64
• dispatched
Pre-earnings add on WFE upcycle into Aug 13 guide.
Current Holdings
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$8759.46
+2.78%
XOM ×120.40
$19239.04
+4.96%
UNH ×8.49
$3471.27
-4.07%
INTC ×14.08
$1373.15
-77.79%
MSFT ×11.91
$6028.44
+24.35%
SBUX ×11.63
$1216.68
-1.87%
CBRE ×8.29
$1193.46
-3.74%
AMZN ×4.38
$1218.76
+2.40%
CVX ×6.05
$1178.37
-0.98%
FRO ×30.23
$1162.41
-2.34%
PLTR ×5.87
$1028.85
-6.04%
MRVL ×13.67
$2851.06
+165.68%
CAT ×1.20
$1004.93
-4.44%
LLY ×1.71
$2108.34
+4.35%
ELF ×11.69
$1113.73
+10.27%
ABNB ×6.53
$1205.59
+21.80%
TWLO ×5.12
$1281.11
+29.43%
BRK-B ×1.78
$944.01
+1.46%
CSCO ×14.72
$1804.28
+0.94%
CRWV ×9.86
$869.13
-2.74%
AMAT ×1.64
$858.21 (est.)
N/A
|
|
Euro Only
Performance
|
Total Value
$116239.42
|
Cash
$56046.99
|
P&L
$16239.42 (+16.24%)
|
Realized P&L
$-1870.28
|
|
TWR
+16.24%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
-1.87%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
BUY
MSLH.L
×6.54
• dispatched
HY results Aug 10 — recovery/cost-save thesis.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded — positions priced at cost/estimated marks.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.86
$19375.11
N/A
TTE.PA ×282.91
$20739.46
N/A
UNA.AS ×48.50
$2832.95
N/A
KER.PA ×5.30
$1553.28
N/A
RR.L ×101.30
$1460.08
N/A
VIE.PA ×48.50
$1430.88
N/A
GLE.PA ×17.29
$1402.26
N/A
MNDI.L ×157.88
$1402.26
N/A
NWG.L ×190.73
$1346.17
N/A
ACA.PA ×69.87
$1346.48
N/A
PHIA.AS ×59.20
$1346.18
N/A
BESI.AS ×6.70
$1240.09
N/A
ENR.DE ×8.06
$1215.28
N/A
SIE.DE ×5.17
$1190.97
N/A
MSLH.L ×673.48
$2310.98
N/A
|
|
Anti-Fragile
Performance
|
Total Value
$100000.00
|
Cash
$100000.00
|
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
|
Realized P&L
$0.0000
|
|
TWR
+0.00%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
+0.00%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
|
|
Penny Plays
Performance
|
Total Value
$95417.43
|
Cash
$84510.79
|
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
|
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
|
|
TWR
-4.58%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
-4.58%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded — positions priced at cost/estimated marks.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
GOSS ×18577.85
$3755.55
N/A
PYPD ×859.73
$3593.88
N/A
STXS ×2738.06
$3557.21
N/A
|
|
Trend Follow
Performance
|
Total Value
$100000.00
|
Cash
$100000.00
|
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
|
Realized P&L
$0.0000
|
|
TWR
+0.00%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
+0.00%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
|
|
Commodities
Performance
|
Total Value
$100000.00
|
Cash
$68094.95
|
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
|
Realized P&L
$0.0000
|
|
TWR
+0.00%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
+0.00%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
BUY
GLD
×3.52
• dispatched
Hedge CPI/Hormuz binary with gold bid.
BUY
USO
×11.04
• dispatched
Add on Hormuz oil premium — WTI >$82.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded — positions priced at cost/estimated marks.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
USO ×139.37
$18014.88
N/A
GLD ×23.68
$9147.88
N/A
CPER ×83.09
$3235.64
N/A
SLV ×26.87
$1506.66
N/A
|
|
Crypto
Performance
|
Total Value
$100000.00
|
Cash
$69426.36
|
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
|
Realized P&L
$0.0000
|
|
TWR
+0.00%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
+0.00%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
BUY
BTC
×0.02
• dispatched
ETF inflow support into CPI week.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded — positions priced at cost/estimated marks.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.27
$17284.77
N/A
ETH-USD ×6.23
$11840.32
N/A
BTC ×0.02
$1448.55
N/A
|
30-day hit rate across all portfolios: +0.00%
|
|
|
This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research before investing.
Morning Alpha • Generated Tue, 11 Aug 2026 05:08:36 GMT • info@gmc-works.com
|