|
|
⚠ Data quality: DEGRADED
market_pulse — Thursday 07:05 CEST — US index/VIX/^TNX are Aug 12 cash closes; EURUSD/GC=F/CL=F/BTC reflect live Thursday prints.
commodities_outlook — GLD live /price returned Stooq challenge HTML — using AlphaVantage history close $402.54 (Aug 10) with GC=F live $4,454.60 for spot context.
penny_plays — Zero penny ideas published — no sub-$5 name cleared the ≥6/10 multibagger bar after Pass A/B screening.
risk_cover_playbook — VIX3M/VIX9D/MOVE unavailable from aggregator; stock-bond correlation computed from SPY/TLT history only.
portfolio_reality_check — Post-reset pick history still sparse (25 days since 2026-07-19); hit_rate_last_30d_pct is 0 over available post-reset window.
|
|
THE BOTTOM LINE
|
RISK-ON
CPI matched at 3.4% y/y and VIX collapsed to 14.55 — the tape is risk-on into PPI at 8:30 a.m. ET and AMAT after the close, not pricing cuts yet.
Today's Top Picks
AMAT
· us_equity_ideas — Aug 13 Q3 FY26 earnings after close
MU
· us_equity_ideas — Memory rally on CoreWeave/Nebius Aug 12
ASML.AS
· eu_equity_ideas — TSMC July revenue +44.7% y/y
GLD
· commodities_outlook — Hedge hold post-CPI
USO
· commodities_outlook — WTI $82.92 Hormuz hedge
|
Biggest Risk
Iran/Hormuz oil premium persists (WTI >$80)
Probability: Medium • Impact: High
|
|
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $714060.68
Blended P&L: +2.38% • 30d Hit Rate: +0.00%
|
|
|
|
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Wednesday was CPI relief plus an AI-infrastructure bid: the S&P rose 0.26% to 7,748.50 and Nasdaq 0.54% to 26,588.49 after July CPI matched at 3.4% y/y (core 2.5%), while VIX collapsed to 14.55 (-4.8%) and memory names led (MU +5.8%, XLK +1.4%).
How Yesterday Unfolded
Asia
Asia was last seen firm into the US week — KOSPI +0.73% on Aug 11 and Nikkei +2.0% Aug 10 — setting up better risk appetite before CPI landed.
Europe
European benchmarks were still Aug 10 closes (Stoxx 600 660.45) when US CPI hit — the region had not yet repriced the benign print.
US
US cash rose on CPI: S&P +0.26%, Nasdaq +0.54%, Dow -0.04% to 53,770.27; CoreWeave/SMCI/Nebius earnings fueled AI/memory (MU +5.8%) while VIX fell to 14.55.
Capital Rotation
Cash/volatility (VIX -4.8% to 14.55) → AI/Tech (XLK +1.4%, Nasdaq +0.54%)
· VIX -4.8% vs XLK +1.4% on Aug 12; S&P +0.26%
In-line CPI unlocked risk appetite into AI infrastructure earnings rather than defensives.
Energy (CL=F -1.0% overnight Thu) → Memory/semis (MU +5.8%, XLB +3.6%)
· WTI easing post-CPI vs MU +5.8% Aug 12
Oil premium faded once inflation matched, freeing capital back into AI supply-chain winners.
Key Drivers
July CPI in line at 3.4% y/y
— Headline +0.1% m/m and core 2.5% y/y matched consensus, easing hike fears into September.
AI infra earnings cluster
— CoreWeave, SMCI and Nebius beats lifted memory/semis — MU +5.8% on Aug 12.
VIX collapsed to 14.55
— Lowest fear gauge in weeks as CPI removed the binary tail risk.
Bridge to Today
If PPI at 8:30 a.m. ET confirms CPI’s disinflation signal with WTI still <$83, expect the AI/memory bid to extend into AMAT’s after-close guide — a hot PPI re-opens the hike scare fast.
|
|
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Post-CPI, commodities are a hold book: GLD hedges at ~$402.5 (+1.0% Mon) while WTI eased to $82.92 — no fresh adds until PPI confirms inflation is truly cooling through the wholesale pipeline.
Cross-Commodity Macro Linkage
Gold flat near $4,455 with WTI down ~1% overnight post-CPI signals markets believe headline inflation peaked — if PPI also softens today, precious metals may lag energy less; a hot PPI with oil >$82 re-ignites the stagflation hedge trade.
|
Gold
PRECIOUS METAL HOLD 🔥 13-issue streak
GLD
|
$402.54
▲ +1.02%
|
After CPI matched at 3.4% y/y, expect GLD to hold its hedge role without fresh adds — conviction 7.0 HOLD at ~$402.5. Gold ~$4,455 is doing its job; wait for PPI (Aug 13 8:30 a.m. ET) before sizing up.
⚡ July PPI Aug 13 8:30 a.m. ET ⚡ GC=F ~$4,454 Aug 13 ⚡ CPI core 2.5% y/y Aug 12 ⚡ HY OAS 2.72% (Aug 11)
Invalidation: Real 10-year yields rise above 2.5% on a sustained basis post-PPI.
|
|
WTI Crude (USO proxy)
ENERGY HOLD 🔥 13-issue streak
USO
|
$125.92
▲ +6.73%
|
With WTI easing to $82.92 post-CPI, keep USO as a Hormuz hedge but pause fresh BUYs — conviction 6.5 HOLD. Oil premium is fading unless PPI re-ignites inflation fears today.
⚡ WTI $82.92 Aug 13 ⚡ July PPI Aug 13 ⚡ Hormuz closure rhetoric ⚡ CPI 3.4% y/y Aug 12
Invalidation: WTI sustains a close below $75 for two consecutive weeks.
|
|
|
MARKET PULSE
|
S&P 500
7748.5
▲ +0.26%
|
NASDAQ
26588.490234375
▲ +0.54%
|
Dow Jones
53770.26953125
▼ -0.04%
|
Russell 2K
3045.47998046875
▲ +0.61%
|
VIX
14.550000190734863
▼ -4.78%
|
EUR/USD
1.152871
▼ -0.08%
|
Gold
4454.600098
▼ -0.12%
|
Oil (WTI)
82.919998
▼ -0.96%
|
Bitcoin
63637.000000
▼ -0.13%
|
10Y Yield
4.682000
▼ -0.04%
|
July CPI cleared at 3.4% y/y and core 2.5% (Aug 12), lifting the S&P +0.26% to 7,748.50 and crushing VIX to 14.55 (-4.8%) — the market is pricing a September Fed hold (~40% hike odds vs 50/50 pre-print), not cuts. The cross-asset tell is oil fading to $82.92 (-1.0% overnight) even as Nasdaq +0.54% confirms AI/memory leadership (XLK +1.4%). Next gate: July PPI prints today Aug 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET, then AMAT fiscal Q3 after the close — a hot wholesale read could re-open the hike tail faster than CPI just closed it.
|
|
US EQUITY IDEAS
|
AMAT
GROWTH BUY 🔥 3-issue streak
Applied Materials, Inc. • Technology
|
$548.15
▲ +4.29%
|
Into tonight's fiscal Q3 print, expect AMAT to trade the WFE upcycle — conviction 7.5 BUY at $548.15 (+4.3% Aug 12). Guided $8.95B revenue (+23% y/y); the inventory/FCF line is the swing factor per preview research, but TSMC/MU strength supports tool demand.
⚡ Aug 13 Q3 FY26 earnings after close ⚡ Guided revenue $8.95B ± $500M ⚡ MU +5.8% memory bid Aug 12 ⚡ July PPI Aug 13 8:30 a.m. ET
|
Mkt Cap
N/A
| |
P/E
N/A
| |
Beta
N/A
| |
Target
$620.00
| |
Conviction
7.5/10
|
Invalidation: Q3 revenue misses $8.7B or October guide below $9.5B.
|
|
MU
GROWTH BUY
Micron Technology, Inc. • Technology
|
$911.29
▲ +5.84%
|
Over the next few sessions, expect MU to extend Aug 12's +5.8% memory bid — conviction 7.5 BUY at $911.29. CoreWeave/Nebius beats and Micron's own "2027 tighter than 2026" supply call (KeyBanc Aug 11) are the confirming signals; one strong fresh catalyst.
⚡ CoreWeave/Nebius Q2 beats Aug 12 ⚡ MU +5.8% Aug 12 on memory rally ⚡ KeyBanc Aug 11: 2027 supply tighter than 2026 ⚡ NYT lobbying vs Chinese memory chips Aug 12
|
Mkt Cap
N/A
| |
P/E
N/A
| |
Beta
N/A
| |
Target
$1050.00
| |
Conviction
7.5/10
|
Invalidation: MU loses $850 on a weekly close or HBM pricing commentary turns negative at the next industry event.
|
|
|
EU EQUITY IDEAS
|
ASML.AS
GROWTH BUY 🔥 2-issue streak
ASML Holding N.V. • Technology
|
$1567.00
▲ +0.84%
|
Over the next week, expect ASML.AS to hold the lithography bid at €1,567 (+0.8% Aug 12) — conviction 7.0 BUY. TSMC July revenue +44.7% y/y (Aug 11) and the US memory/semicap rally post-CPI extend the same AI capex cycle.
⚡ ASML.AS €1,567 close Aug 12 ⚡ TSMC July revenue +44.7% y/y Aug 11 ⚡ MU +5.8% US memory bid Aug 12 ⚡ July PPI Aug 13 macro cross-current
|
Mkt Cap
N/A
| |
P/E
N/A
| |
Beta
N/A
| |
Target
$1700.00
| |
Conviction
7/10
|
Invalidation: ASML.AS loses €1,480 support on a TSMC order slowdown headline.
|
|
|
PENNY PLAYS
|
|
FOREX REBALANCING RADAR
Base currency: EUR — every stance below is relative to holding this currency's cash instead of EUR.
| Currency (vs EUR) |
Short-term |
Medium-term |
Long-term |
| USD |
NEUTRAL (0) |
NEUTRAL (0) |
NEUTRAL (0) |
|
Post-CPI at 3.4% y/y, expect two-sided USD — hike odds fell to ~40% but 10Y at 4.682% keeps carry; PPI today is the next binary.
· vs. yesterday: reverses
⚠ Contrarian watch: A hot PPI today could violently unwind the post-CPI USD softness if hike odds snap back above 50%.
|
| JPY 🔥16 |
SEEK (4) |
SEEK (3) |
SEEK (2) |
|
Expect modest yen demand as VIX collapsed to 14.55 post-CPI — risk-on reduces haven bid but oil <$83 eases import pain.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces
|
| GBP 🔥41 |
SEEK (3) |
SEEK (3) |
NEUTRAL (1) |
|
Hold GBP carry at BoE 3.75% with CPI relief supporting risk assets; Aug 14 UK GDP is the next domestic catalyst.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces
|
| CHF 🔥16 |
NEUTRAL (0) |
NEUTRAL (0) |
NEUTRAL (-1) |
|
CHF hedges PPI binary but offers no carry — neutral until wholesale inflation clears.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces
|
| NOK 🔥7 |
SEEK (3) |
SEEK (3) |
SEEK (2) |
|
Oil at $82.92 still supports NOK but eased post-CPI — Norges Bank guidance remains the domestic anchor.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces
|
Suggested rebalancing actions
HOLD USD vs EUR — Hold EUR/USD neutral post-CPI until PPI at 8:30 a.m. ET confirms the disinflation path.
INCREASE JPY vs EUR — Add JPY as a low-carry hedge if PPI surprises hot and oil re-bids above $84.
|
|
TOP 5 RISKS RIGHT NOW
|
#1 — Iran/Hormuz oil premium persists (WTI >$80)
🔥 12
Stable
Probability: MEDIUM
• Impact: HIGH
• Horizon: 1-5 days
Watch: WTI $82.92 Aug 13; Brent still >$82; Strait of Hormuz headlines; July PPI Aug 13 8:30 a.m. ET
|
|
#2 — July PPI hot print re-ignites Fed hike odds
New
Probability: MEDIUM
• Impact: HIGH
• Horizon: 1 day
Watch: July PPI release Aug 13 8:30 a.m. ET; Wholesale pipeline into core PCE; 10Y yield vs 4.70%
|
|
#3 — Labor market rolling over (NFP -23k, revisions)
🔥 6
Stable
Probability: HIGH
• Impact: HIGH
• Horizon: 1-3 months
Watch: 3-month avg payrolls +20k; Aug 14 retail sales; Initial claims trend
|
|
#4 — Credit complacency / HY spread compression
🔥 12
Stable
Probability: MEDIUM
• Impact: MEDIUM
• Horizon: 2-4 weeks
Watch: HY OAS 2.72% (Aug 11); IG OAS 0.79%; VIX 14.55 post-CPI
|
|
#5 — VIX complacency / positioning extremes post-CPI
New
Probability: MEDIUM
• Impact: MEDIUM
• Horizon: 1-2 weeks
Watch: VIX 14.55 Aug 12 (-4.8%); Equity put/call ratio; PPI surprise could snap VIX back above 18
|
|
|
CRASH / BEAR-MARKET COVER PLAYBOOK
Regime: RISK-ON
| VIX |
14.55 / 25 |
Not Triggered
|
| 10Y-2Y spread |
0.48 / -0.2 |
Not Triggered
|
| HY OAS |
2.72 / 5 |
Not Triggered
|
| S&P 500 drawdown from 52w high |
-0.1 / -10 |
Not Triggered
|
If triggered today — do this now
• Raise cash toward 15% if PPI hot and VIX closes above 18
• Add TLT if 10Y falls below 4.60% on soft PPI
• Use SH/VIXY if S&P loses 7,650 on stagflation combo
• Trim semicap beta if AMAT guide disappoints tonight
Hedge instruments: GLD, TLT, SH, VIXY
• Target cash: 15%
Zero of four crash triggers fired (VIX 14.55, HY OAS 2.72%, curve +48bps, S&P near highs) and CPI matched — stay risk-on but PPI at 8:30 a.m. ET is the next inflation gate before AMAT's guide tonight.
|
|
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Post-CPI risk-on lifted ETF demand: Aug 13 spot BTC+ETH ETFs logged ~$695M net inflows (Lookonchain) while BTC holds $63,637 — stay HOLD until PPI confirms macro stays benign.
Institutional Moves
BlackRock (IBIT/ETHA)
Aug 13 spot ETF flows: +917 BTC ($111.9M) and +124,431 ETH ($583M) net inflows; iShares led with +931 BTC and +70,802 ETH per Lookonchain.
Adoption Landscape
[United States] Combined BTC+ETH ETF net inflows reached ~$694.8M on Aug 13 — institutional wrappers absorbing flow even as spot BTC stays sub-$65k pre-PPI.
Asset Ideas
|
BTC-USD
HOLD 🔥 39-issue streak
Bitcoin
|
$63637.00
▼ -0.13%
|
Into PPI at 8:30 a.m. ET, expect BTC to hold $63-65k — conviction 6.5 HOLD. Aug 13 ETF inflows (~$695M combined) are real but price needs macro confirmation before a breakout.
⚡ ETF inflows ~$695M Aug 13 ⚡ BTC $63,637 Aug 13 ⚡ July PPI Aug 13 8:30 a.m. ET ⚡ CPI 3.4% y/y Aug 12
Invalidation: BTC closes below $58k on a weekly basis.
|
|
ETH-USD
HOLD 🔥 39-issue streak
Ethereum
|
$1890.51
▲ +0.15%
|
ETH at $1,891 is tracking stronger ETF inflows ($583M Aug 13) but PPI is the gate — conviction 6.5 HOLD until wholesale inflation clears.
⚡ ETH ETF +124,431 ETH Aug 13 ⚡ ETH $1,890.51 Aug 13 ⚡ July PPI Aug 13 ⚡ CPI core 2.5% Aug 12
Invalidation: ETH loses $1,750 on a weekly close.
|
|
|
WHAT'S COMING UP
| 2026-08-13 |
July US PPI release 8:30 a.m. ET
· risk_top5
|
| 2026-08-13 |
AMAT Q3 FY26 earnings after close
· us_equity_ideas
|
| 2026-08-14 |
UK GDP print — forex catalyst
· forex_rebalancing
|
|
|
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
|
Tech US
Performance
|
Total Value
$102403.83
|
Cash
$38770.36
|
P&L
$2403.83 (+2.40%)
|
Realized P&L
$-2664.87
|
|
TWR
+2.30%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
-2.39%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
BUY
AMAT
×1.47
• dispatched
Fiscal Q3 WFE print tonight — adding on AI capex bid post-CPI.
BUY
MU
×0.89
• dispatched
Memory rally on CoreWeave/Nebius beats Aug 12.
Current Holdings
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$8983.01
+5.41%
XOM ×120.40
$19234.22
+4.93%
UNH ×8.49
$3444.51
-4.81%
INTC ×14.08
$1421.45
-77.01%
MSFT ×11.91
$5866.07
+21.00%
SBUX ×11.63
$1261.33
+1.73%
CBRE ×8.29
$1222.15
-1.42%
AMZN ×4.38
$1171.38
-1.58%
CVX ×6.05
$1188.58
-0.12%
FRO ×30.23
$1196.26
+0.51%
PLTR ×5.87
$1004.24
-8.29%
MRVL ×13.67
$2967.53
+176.54%
CAT ×1.20
$1026.55
-2.39%
LLY ×1.71
$2088.39
+3.36%
ELF ×11.69
$1083.09
+7.24%
ABNB ×6.53
$1175.53
+18.76%
TWLO ×5.12
$1263.48
+27.65%
BRK-B ×1.78
$909.38
-2.26%
CSCO ×21.70
$2688.68
+2.29%
CRWV ×9.86
$1061.70
+18.82%
AMAT ×4.69
$2568.25
+3.14%
MU ×0.89
$807.68
+0.00%
|
|
Euro Only
Performance
|
Total Value
$116239.42
|
Cash
$53827.62
|
P&L
$16239.42 (+16.24%)
|
Realized P&L
$-1870.28
|
|
TWR
+16.24%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
-1.87%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
BUY
ASML.AS
×0.70
• dispatched
TSMC July revenue +44.7% extends lithography backlog bid.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded for Euro Only — positions priced at cost where needed.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×2.28
$21594.47
N/A
TTE.PA ×282.91
$20739.46
N/A
UNA.AS ×48.50
$2832.95
N/A
KER.PA ×5.30
$1553.28
N/A
RR.L ×101.30
$1460.08
N/A
VIE.PA ×48.50
$1430.88
N/A
GLE.PA ×17.29
$1402.26
N/A
MNDI.L ×157.88
$1402.26
N/A
NWG.L ×190.73
$1346.17
N/A
ACA.PA ×69.87
$1346.48
N/A
PHIA.AS ×59.20
$1346.18
N/A
BESI.AS ×6.70
$1240.09
N/A
ENR.DE ×8.06
$1215.28
N/A
SIE.DE ×5.17
$1190.97
N/A
MSLH.L ×673.48
$2310.98
N/A
|
|
Penny Plays
Performance
|
Total Value
$95417.43
|
Cash
$84510.79
|
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
|
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
|
|
TWR
-4.58%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
-4.58%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded for Penny Plays — positions priced at cost where needed.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
GOSS ×18577.85
$3755.55
N/A
PYPD ×859.73
$3593.88
N/A
STXS ×2738.06
$3557.21
N/A
|
|
Anti-Fragile
Performance
|
Total Value
$100000.00
|
Cash
$100000.00
|
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
|
Realized P&L
$0.0000
|
|
TWR
+0.00%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
+0.00%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
|
|
Trend Follow
Performance
|
Total Value
$100000.00
|
Cash
$100000.00
|
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
|
Realized P&L
$0.0000
|
|
TWR
+0.00%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
+0.00%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
|
|
Commodities
Performance
|
Total Value
$100000.00
|
Cash
$68094.95
|
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
|
Realized P&L
$0.0000
|
|
TWR
+0.00%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
+0.00%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded for Commodities — positions priced at cost where needed.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
USO ×139.37
$18014.88
N/A
GLD ×23.68
$9147.88
N/A
CPER ×83.09
$3235.64
N/A
SLV ×26.87
$1506.66
N/A
|
|
Crypto
Performance
|
Total Value
$100000.00
|
Cash
$69426.36
|
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
|
Realized P&L
$0.0000
|
|
TWR
+0.00%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
+0.00%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded for Crypto — positions priced at cost where needed.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.27
$17284.77
N/A
ETH-USD ×6.23
$11840.32
N/A
BTC ×0.02
$1448.55
N/A
|
30-day hit rate across all portfolios: +0.00%
|
|
|
This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research before investing.
Morning Alpha • Generated Thu, 13 Aug 2026 05:08:23 GMT • info@gmc-works.com
|