market_pulse — Thursday 07:05 CEST — US index/VIX/^TNX are Aug 12 cash closes; EURUSD/GC=F/CL=F/BTC reflect live Thursday prints.
commodities_outlook — GLD live /price returned Stooq challenge HTML — using AlphaVantage history close $402.54 (Aug 10) with GC=F live $4,454.60 for spot context.
penny_plays — Zero penny ideas published — no sub-$5 name cleared the ≥6/10 multibagger bar after Pass A/B screening.
risk_cover_playbook — VIX3M/VIX9D/MOVE unavailable from aggregator; stock-bond correlation computed from SPY/TLT history only.
portfolio_reality_check — Post-reset pick history still sparse (25 days since 2026-07-19); hit_rate_last_30d_pct is 0 over available post-reset window.
GeneralThe Bottom Line 1 minCPI matched at 3.4% y/y and VIX collapsed to 14.55 — the tape is risk-on into PPI at 8:30 a.m. ET and AMAT after the close, not pricing cuts yet.
THE BOTTOM LINE
RISK-ON=
CPI matched at 3.4% y/y and VIX collapsed to 14.55 — the tape is risk-on into PPI at 8:30 a.m. ET and AMAT after the close, not pricing cuts yet.
Today's Top Picks
AMAT
7.5/10
MU
7.5/10
ASML.AS
7/10
GLD
7/10
USO
6.5/10
Biggest Risk
Iran/Hormuz oil premium persists (WTI >$80)
Probability: Medium • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $302403.83
Blended P&L: +0.80% • 30d Hit Rate: +0.00%
3 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate counts reviewed picks still on track. It is not a probability, and a low hit rate can still pay if winners are larger.
GeneralMarket Pulse 2 minJuly CPI cleared at 3.4% y/y and core 2.5% (Aug 12), lifting the S&P +0.26% to 7,748.50 and crushing VIX to 14.55 (-4.8%) — the market is pricing a September Fed hold (~40% hike odds vs 50/…
MARKET PULSE
July CPI cleared at 3.4% y/y and core 2.5% (Aug 12), lifting the S&P +0.26% to 7,748.50 and crushing VIX to 14.55 (-4.8%) — the market is pricing a September Fed hold (~40% hike odds vs 50/50 pre-print), not cuts. The cross-asset tell is oil fading to $82.92 (-1.0% overnight) even as Nasdaq +0.54% confirms AI/memory leadership (XLK +1.4%). Next gate: July PPI prints today Aug 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET, then AMAT fiscal Q3 after the close — a hot wholesale read could re-open the hike tail faster than CPI just closed it.
• Raise cash toward 15% if PPI hot and VIX closes above 18
• Add TLT if 10Y falls below 4.60% on soft PPI
• Use SH/VIXY if S&P loses 7,650 on stagflation combo
• Trim semicap beta if AMAT guide disappoints tonight
AIZero of four crash triggers fired (VIX 14.55, HY OAS 2.72%, curve +48bps, S&P near highs) and CPI matched — stay risk-on but PPI at 8:30 a.m. ET is the next inflation gate before AMAT's guide tonight.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 2 minWednesday was CPI relief plus an AI-infrastructure bid: the S&P rose 0.26% to 7,748.50 and Nasdaq 0.54% to 26,588.49 after July CPI matched at 3.4% y/y (core 2.5%), while VIX collapsed to 1…
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Wednesday was CPI relief plus an AI-infrastructure bid: the S&P rose 0.26% to 7,748.50 and Nasdaq 0.54% to 26,588.49 after July CPI matched at 3.4% y/y (core 2.5%), while VIX collapsed to 14.55 (-4.8%) and memory names led (MU +5.8%, XLK +1.4%).
How Yesterday Unfolded
Asia Asia was last seen firm into the US week — KOSPI +0.73% on Aug 11 and Nikkei +2.0% Aug 10 — setting up better risk appetite before CPI landed.
Europe European benchmarks were still Aug 10 closes (Stoxx 600 660.45) when US CPI hit — the region had not yet repriced the benign print.
US US cash rose on CPI: S&P +0.26%, Nasdaq +0.54%, Dow -0.04% to 53,770.27; CoreWeave/SMCI/Nebius earnings fueled AI/memory (MU +5.8%) while VIX fell to 14.55.
Bridge to Today
If PPI at 8:30 a.m. ET confirms CPI’s disinflation signal with WTI still <$83, expect the AI/memory bid to extend into AMAT’s after-close guide — a hot PPI re-opens the hike scare fast.
Into tonight's fiscal Q3 print, expect AMAT to trade the WFE upcycle — conviction 7.5 BUY at $548.15 (+4.3% Aug 12). Guided $8.95B revenue (+23% y/y); the inventory/FCF line is the swing factor per preview research, but…
Aug 13 Q3 FY26 earnings after closeGuided revenue $8.95B ± $500MMU +5.8% memory bid Aug 12
Target
$620.00
Conviction 75%
Invalidation: Q3 revenue misses $8.7B or October guide below $9.5B.
TradingView's price for AMAT. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next few sessions, expect MU to extend Aug 12's +5.8% memory bid — conviction 7.5 BUY at $911.29. CoreWeave/Nebius beats and Micron's own "2027 tighter than 2026" supply call (KeyBanc Aug 11) are the confirming…
CoreWeave/Nebius Q2 beats Aug 12MU +5.8% Aug 12 on memory rallyKeyBanc Aug 11: 2027 supply tighter than 2026
Target
$1050.00
Conviction 75%
Invalidation: MU loses $850 on a weekly close or HBM pricing commentary turns negative at the next industry event.
TradingView's price for MU. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 1 minASML.AS BUY
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
ASML.AS=
ASML Holding N.V.
7
+0.84%
ASML.ASGROWTHBUY🔥 2-issue streak=
ASML Holding N.V. • Technology
7/10Conviction
$1567.00
▲ +0.84%
Over the next week, expect ASML.AS to hold the lithography bid at €1,567 (+0.8% Aug 12) — conviction 7.0 BUY. TSMC July revenue +44.7% y/y (Aug 11) and the US memory/semicap rally post-CPI extend the same AI capex cycle.
ASML.AS €1,567 close Aug 12TSMC July revenue +44.7% y/y Aug 11MU +5.8% US memory bid Aug 12
Target
$1700.00
Conviction 70%
Invalidation: ASML.AS loses €1,480 support on a TSMC order slowdown headline.
TradingView's price for ASML.AS. It is not the last print in this letter.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 1 minPost-CPI risk-on lifted ETF demand: Aug 13 spot BTC+ETH ETFs logged ~$695M net inflows (Lookonchain) while BTC holds $63,637 — stay HOLD until PPI confirms macro stays benign.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Post-CPI risk-on lifted ETF demand: Aug 13 spot BTC+ETH ETFs logged ~$695M net inflows (Lookonchain) while BTC holds $63,637 — stay HOLD until PPI confirms macro stays benign.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
6.5
-0.13%
ETH-USD
Ethereum
6.5
+0.15%
BTC-USDHOLD🔥 39-issue streak
Bitcoin
6.5/10Conviction
$63637.00
▼ -0.13%
Into PPI at 8:30 a.m. ET, expect BTC to hold $63-65k — conviction 6.5 HOLD. Aug 13 ETF inflows (~$695M combined) are real but price needs macro confirmation before a breakout.
ETF inflows ~$695M Aug 13BTC $63,637 Aug 13July PPI Aug 13 8:30 a.m. ET
Conviction 65%
Invalidation: BTC closes below $58k on a weekly basis.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 2 minPost-CPI, commodities are a hold book: GLD hedges at ~$402.5 (+1.0% Mon) while WTI eased to $82.92 — no fresh adds until PPI confirms inflation is truly cooling through the wholesale pipeli…
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Post-CPI, commodities are a hold book: GLD hedges at ~$402.5 (+1.0% Mon) while WTI eased to $82.92 — no fresh adds until PPI confirms inflation is truly cooling through the wholesale pipeline.
Gold flat near $4,455 with WTI down ~1% overnight post-CPI signals markets believe headline inflation peaked — if PPI also softens today, precious metals may…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
GLD
Gold
7
+1.02%
USO
WTI Crude (USO proxy)
6.5
+6.73%
GoldPRECIOUS METALHOLD🔥 13-issue streak
GLD
7/10Conviction
$402.54
▲ +1.02%
After CPI matched at 3.4% y/y, expect GLD to hold its hedge role without fresh adds — conviction 7.0 HOLD at ~$402.5. Gold ~$4,455 is doing its job; wait for PPI (Aug 13 8:30 a.m. ET) before sizing up.
July PPI Aug 13 8:30 a.m. ETGC=F ~$4,454 Aug 13CPI core 2.5% y/y Aug 12
Conviction 70%
Invalidation: Real 10-year yields rise above 2.5% on a sustained basis post-PPI.
TradingView's price for GLD. It is not the last print in this letter.
With WTI easing to $82.92 post-CPI, keep USO as a Hormuz hedge but pause fresh BUYs — conviction 6.5 HOLD. Oil premium is fading unless PPI re-ignites inflation fears today.
WTI $82.92 Aug 13July PPI Aug 13Hormuz closure rhetoric
Conviction 65%
Invalidation: WTI sustains a close below $75 for two consecutive weeks.
TradingView's price for USO. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 3 min30d hit rate 0%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech US
+2.40%
Anti-Fragile
+0.00%
Trend Follow
+0.00%
Named holdings. 41 smaller positions (12.71%) are off this picture.
Tech US
Performance
Total Value
$102403.83
Cash
$38770.36
P&L
$2403.83 (+2.40%)
Realized P&L
$-2664.87
TWR
+2.30%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
-2.39%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions62%
Cash38%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
AMAT
1.47
dispatched
Buy
MU
0.8863
dispatched
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$8983.01
+5.4%
XOM ×120
$19234.22
+4.9%
UNH ×8.49
$3444.51
-4.8%
INTC ×14.08
$1421.45
-77.0%
MSFT ×11.91
$5866.07
+21.0%
SBUX ×11.63
$1261.33
+1.7%
CBRE ×8.29
$1222.15
-1.4%
AMZN ×4.38
$1171.38
-1.6%
+14 more holdings
Euro Only
Performance
Total Value
$116239.42
Cash
$53827.62
P&L
$16239.42 (+16.24%)
Realized P&L
$-1870.28
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
ASML.AS
0.7010
dispatched
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded for Euro Only — positions priced at cost where needed.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×2.28
$21594.47
—
TTE.PA ×283
$20739.46
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
—
KER.PA ×5.3
$1553.28
—
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
—
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
—
GLE.PA ×17.29
$1402.26
—
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
—
+7 more holdings
Penny Plays
Performance
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$84510.79
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded for Penny Plays — positions priced at cost where needed.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578
$3755.55
—
PYPD ×860
$3593.88
—
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
—
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$100000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Cash100%
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Trend Follow
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$100000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Cash100%
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Commodities
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$68094.95
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded for Commodities — positions priced at cost where needed.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×139
$18014.88
—
GLD ×23.68
$9147.88
—
CPER ×83.09
$3235.64
—
SLV ×26.87
$1506.66
—
Crypto
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$69426.36
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded for Crypto — positions priced at cost where needed.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.2664
$17284.77
—
ETH-USD ×6.23
$11840.32
—
BTC ×0.0223
$1448.55
—
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +0.00%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.