|
|
⚠ Data quality: DEGRADED
market_pulse — Monday Zurich run: equity/index/^VIX/^TNX marks are Friday 2026-08-14 settles; EURUSD/GC/CL/BTC already show Monday 2026-08-17 prints — both are labeled in headline_summary.
yesterday_retrospective — Several sector SPDR live /price reads returned Stooq Cloudflare HTML; rotation evidence uses AlphaVantage history for XLK/XLE/XLI/XLF where available.
eu_equity_ideas — eu_fundamentals_gap: /fundamentals for TTE.PA returned empty derived fields; idea published on price + web catalyst only.
commodities_outlook — GLD/USO ETF history sparse mid-week; WTI/gold theses cross-checked against Monday futures prints (CL=F $81.77, GC=F $4,453).
crypto_landscape — ETH-USD Monday live print $1,899.63 used alongside Friday/Sunday history closes for change context.
risk_cover_playbook — ^VIX3M/^VIX9D/DX-Y.NYB aggregator /price empty; VIX/VIX3M ratio taken from thetrading.tools Aug 14 close (VIX 14.25 / VIX3M 18.46).
portfolio_reality_check — INTC /positions avg_price still ~$439 vs filled trade prices ~$86–100 (known PM aggregation bug); holdings show API fields verbatim, picks_reviewed return uses trade-fill economics (~+19%). EURO/Commodities/Crypto/Penny books largely price_estimated.
penny_plays — No buy-tier name cleared ≥6/10 after anti-late-mover filter; INO published watchlist-only after a +47% 4-session spike.
|
|
THE BOTTOM LINE
|
RISK-ON
Hormuz tanker traffic collapsed over the weekend while VIX still sleeps at 14.3 — oil and gold stay the live hedges into Home Depot earnings and Wednesday’s FOMC minutes.
Today's Top Picks
USO
· commodities_outlook — Weekend Hormuz transit collapse keeps Brent near $89.
RDDT
· us_equity_ideas — S&P 500 inclusion effective Tue Aug 18.
GLD
· commodities_outlook — Gold reclaiming $4,400 with ETF inflow streak.
HD
· us_equity_ideas — Aug 18 earnings test after retail sales −0.6%.
TTE.PA
· eu_equity_ideas — Integrated oil leverage to Monday Hormuz shock.
|
Biggest Risk
Iran/Hormuz oil premium persists (WTI >$80)
Probability: High • Impact: High
|
|
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $713770.94
Blended P&L: +2.34% • 30d Hit Rate: +60.00%
|
|
|
|
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Friday was a soft fade from Thursday’s S&P record: the index slipped 0.17% to 7,785.76 after July retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% and Brent jumped 1.7% to $88.52 on Hormuz uncertainty — growth-scare meets energy-inflation scare in one session.
How Yesterday Unfolded
Asia
Asia finished mixed into the US data day: Nikkei closed +0.59% at 68,713.80 while KOSPI ripped +2.42% to 6,977.94 on another AI/memory bid, even as Hang Seng was little changed around 25,396.
Europe
Europe was soft ahead of the US retail print: FTSE 100 −0.56% to 10,772.70, CAC 40 −0.28%, and DAX roughly flat (−0.12%), with energy-linked names better than rate-sensitives as oil firmed.
US
US opened firmer then rolled: S&P −0.17% to 7,785.76, Nasdaq −0.28% to 26,729.16, Dow −0.20% to 53,732.41 as the retail-sales miss and a late oil spike capped the third weekly gain; Reddit jumped ~12.6% on S&P 500 inclusion while Applied Materials fell ~5.1% despite a beat.
Capital Rotation
Long-duration tech / growth (AMAT −5.1% on beat; AI multiple compression) → Energy (XLE +1.44% Fri vs XLK +0.61%)
· XLE +1.44% on 2026-08-14 vs XLK +0.61%; Brent +1.7% to $88.52
Hormuz shipping risk re-priced oil higher while soft retail sales pressured high-multiple AI names that had already run hard into the print.
Consumer discretionary / retail beta → Index-inclusion / communication services (RDDT +12.6%)
· RDDT +12.6% on S&P add vs broad consumer soft tape after retail sales −0.6%
Forced passive buying into Tuesday’s inclusion overwhelmed the session’s consumer-fatigue narrative for that single name.
Key Drivers
July retail sales −0.6% vs +0.2% expected
— Broad pullback in shopper spending after tax-refund/World Cup/Prime Day distortions, raising soft-landing vs stagflation debate into Fed hold odds.
Hormuz oil premium — Brent +1.7% to $88.52
— Ongoing uncertainty over tanker transit through the Persian Gulf swung oil higher midday and helped fade equity gains.
Reddit named to S&P 500 effective Aug 18
— S&P DJI announced RDDT replaces AvalonBay; shares surged as index funds prepare to buy before Tuesday’s open.
UMich sentiment down to 51.0
— Preliminary August consumer sentiment fell more than expected, reinforcing the retail-sales growth scare.
Bridge to Today
Monday’s Empire State print plus this week’s Home Depot/Walmart earnings and Wednesday’s July FOMC minutes will decide whether Friday’s consumer scare deepens or gets shrugged off under a still-subdued VIX.
|
|
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Oil stays bid after weekend Hormuz tanker traffic collapsed (Kpler: five vessels Saturday, zero Sunday vs 31 the prior weekend), while gold reclaims the $4,400 area as September hike odds keep falling.
Cross-Commodity Macro Linkage
Oil and gold rising together is a classic geopolitical-premium pattern: WTI still >$81 while GC=F prints $4,453 on Monday. If Hormuz disruption persists into Wednesday’s FOMC minutes, expect the energy bid to keep real-rate relief for bullion from fully translating into a clean risk-on dollar dump.
|
WTI Crude (USO proxy)
ENERGY BUY 🔥 15-issue streak
USO
|
$126.60
▼ -0.55%
|
Into the next few sessions, treat Hormuz as a live supply option: Kpler’s weekend traffic collapse and stalled US–Iran talk signals keep Brent threatening $89–90, which historically forces another USO bid before any diplomatic headline can fade it. JPMorgan’s $7–8/bbl per month of disruption math keeps the skew to the upside while tankers stay sidelined.
⚡ Kpler: 5 Hormuz transits Sat / 0 Sun vs 31 prior weekend (Aug 17) ⚡ Iran FM says no decision to resume US talks; Trump urges higher gasoline tolerance ⚡ Brent early Monday toward $89.20 (+~0.8%)
Invalidation: WTI sustains below $75 for two consecutive weeks.
|
|
Gold
PRECIOUS METAL BUY 🔥 15-issue streak
GLD
|
$401.48
▼ -0.85%
|
Over the next week into FOMC minutes, gold should keep attempting $4,400–4,500 as softer retail sales and cooler inflation cut September hike odds and ETF inflows printed six straight sessions (~21t). The invalidation is a hawkish minutes surprise that lifts real yields enough to reject $4,400 again.
⚡ GC=F Monday rebound to $4,453 after Friday dip ⚡ Bloomberg-cited ETF inflows: longest uninterrupted stretch since April (~21 tons) ⚡ September hike probability compressed after soft CPI/PPI/retail
Invalidation: GC=F sustains a weekly close back below $4,300 on rising real yields.
|
|
|
MARKET PULSE
|
S&P 500
7785.76
▼ -0.17%
|
NASDAQ
26729.16
▼ -0.28%
|
Dow Jones
53732.41
▼ -0.20%
|
Russell 2K
3068.42
▲ +0.75%
|
VIX
14.25
▼ -2.06%
|
EUR/USD
1.1593
▲ +0.17%
|
Gold
4453
▲ +1.66%
|
Oil (WTI)
81.77
▼ -0.76%
|
Bitcoin
63530
▲ +0.73%
|
10Y Yield
4.696
▲ +0.30%
|
Friday’s cash close still frames the tape: S&P 7,785.76 (−0.17%) with VIX asleep at 14.25 even after retail sales −0.6%, while Monday futures already show gold +1.66% to $4,453 and EUR/USD +0.17% to 1.1593. The inter-market tell is oil still >$81 alongside a sub-15 VIX — markets are pricing a Fed hold (~64–69% odds) without pricing Hormuz upside inflation risk. Watch today’s Empire State manufacturing print at 8:30 a.m. ET and the opening of Home Depot’s pre-earnings week for confirmation that the consumer scare is real.
|
|
US EQUITY IDEAS
|
RDDT
GROWTH BUY 🔥 2-issue streak
Reddit Inc. • Communication Services
|
$178.09
▲ +16.05%
|
Into Tuesday’s Aug 18 S&P 500 effective date, expect another mechanical bid as passive funds finish indexing RDDT — the same forced-flow catalyst that already drove Friday’s ~12.6% surge to $178.09. Conviction 8 pairs the dated inclusion event with confirmed index-provider documentation (two independent signals: S&P DJI addition + visible rebalance flow).
⚡ S&P 500 addition effective prior to open Tue Aug 18 (replaces AVB) ⚡ Friday +12.6% on inclusion announcement follow-through
|
Mkt Cap
N/A
| |
P/E
N/A
| |
Beta
N/A
| |
Target
$200.00
| |
Conviction
8/10
|
Invalidation: RDDT loses $155 on a volume-backed breakdown before the Aug 18 effective date.
|
|
HD
VALUE BUY
The Home Depot, Inc. • Consumer Discretionary
|
$338.86
▼ -1.33%
|
Over the next 48 hours into Tue Aug 18 earnings, HD is the cleanest listed test of whether Friday’s retail-sales −0.6% miss is a one-off or the start of big-ticket demand rolling over — especially with CEO Ted Decker on a brief medical leave and FY guide still reaffirmed (sales +2.5–4.5%). Conviction 7.5 rests on one strong freshness signal: a dated earnings binary against a just-printed consumer soft patch.
⚡ Fiscal Q2 earnings before open Tue Aug 18 (consensus ~$4.71 EPS) ⚡ CEO medical leave announced days before print; guide reaffirmed ⚡ July retail sales −0.6% raises the bar for DIY/pro commentary
|
Mkt Cap
N/A
| |
P/E
N/A
| |
Beta
N/A
| |
Target
$365.00
| |
Conviction
7.5/10
|
Invalidation: Q2 comparable sales miss with FY guide cut below the flat-to-+2% comps band.
|
|
|
EU EQUITY IDEAS
|
TTE.PA
COMMODITY BUY
TotalEnergies SE • Energy
|
$75.41
▼ -0.16%
|
Into this week’s Hormuz headlines, expect TTE.PA to keep tracking the oil premium: the company’s own 2Q commentary already flagged 5–10% production impact from Middle East export constraints, and Monday’s Kpler traffic collapse re-opens that cash-flow upside. Conviction 7 is one strong freshness signal — a dated Aug 17 shipping/data catalyst for a name with explicit Hormuz operating leverage.
⚡ Aug 17 Kpler/Reuters: Hormuz weekend traffic 5/0 vs 31 prior weekend ⚡ Brent early Monday toward $89 as US–Iran talks stay stalled ⚡ Prior 2Q print: adjusted NI $6.0B with Hormuz lifting/liquids price capture
|
Mkt Cap
N/A
| |
P/E
N/A
| |
Beta
N/A
| |
Target
$85.00
| |
Conviction
7/10
|
Invalidation: Brent sustains below $75 for two consecutive weeks with Hormuz traffic normalized.
|
|
|
PENNY PLAYS
|
INO
PENNY WATCH
Inovio Pharmaceuticals • Healthcare
|
$1.09
▲ +21.10%
|
This is a confirmation watch on an already-moved name, not a ground-floor entry — INO ripped from $0.74 (Aug 10) to $1.09 (Aug 14), ~+47% in four sessions, so size/expectations must reflect chase risk. Scores 5.5/10: narrative and Oct 30 PDUFA for INO-3107 are real, but catalyst proximity is only mid-tier (10 weeks out), balance-sheet dilution risk is elevated, and social/insider signals were empty on the aggregator — watching for a digestible pullback before any buy-tier upgrade.
⚡ INO-3107 PDUFA target Oct 30, 2026 (RRP accelerated approval path) ⚡ Q2 update: late-cycle review + pre-licensure inspections complete; label talks eyed for September
|
Mkt Cap
N/A
| |
P/E
N/A
| |
Beta
N/A
| |
Target
$1.50
| |
Conviction
5.5/10
|
Invalidation: FDA issues a CRL / extends review past Oct 30 without a clear path, or a dilutive raise below $0.80.
|
|
|
FOREX REBALANCING RADAR
Base currency: EUR — every stance below is relative to holding this currency's cash instead of EUR.
| Currency (vs EUR) |
Short-term |
Medium-term |
Long-term |
| USD 🔥2 |
AVOID (-3) |
NEUTRAL (0) |
SEEK (3) |
|
Expect EUR cash to stay preferred vs USD near-term as soft retail sales and cooler inflation keep September hike odds suppressed and EURUSD prints 1.159.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces Friday avoid stance after another soft US demand print weekend digest
|
| JPY 🔥18 |
SEEK (3) |
SEEK (4) |
NEUTRAL (1) |
|
Prefer JPY over EUR into BoJ policy-normalization optionality while EURJPY at 184 still leaves room for a yen rebound if risk-off flares on oil.
· vs. yesterday: same seek stance; EURJPY firmer Monday reduces urgency vs prior print
|
| GBP 🔥43 |
SEEK (3) |
SEEK (2) |
NEUTRAL (0) |
|
Keep a modest GBP overweight vs EUR while EURGBP holds near 0.855 and UK services inflation keeps BoE relatively less dovish than ECB.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces multi-week seek stance
|
| CHF 🔥18 |
NEUTRAL (0) |
NEUTRAL (0) |
SEEK (2) |
|
No edge vs EUR with EURCHF ~0.940 and most recent SNB guidance still >30 days old — most recent SNB guidance is from prior assessment cycle — no recent signal.
· vs. yesterday: unchanged neutral
|
| NOK 🔥9 |
SEEK (5) |
SEEK (4) |
NEUTRAL (1) |
|
Expect NOK to outperform EUR while oil stays >$80 and EURNOK compressed to 10.91 Monday — oil windfall still the cleanest EUR alternative.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces seek; Monday NOK stronger on oil
|
Suggested rebalancing actions
DECREASE USD vs EUR — Keep trimming USD vs EUR while hike odds stay suppressed and EURUSD holds above 1.155.
INCREASE NOK vs EUR — Add NOK as the oil-linked EUR alternative while Hormuz keeps Brent near $89.
INCREASE JPY vs EUR — Small JPY add as a cheap risk-off hedge with EURJPY extended near 184.
|
|
TOP 5 RISKS RIGHT NOW
|
#1 — Iran/Hormuz oil premium persists (WTI >$80)
🔥 14
Escalating
Probability: HIGH
• Impact: HIGH
• Horizon: 1-8 weeks
Watch: Daily Hormuz transit counts (Kpler); Brent holding above $88 into Wed FOMC minutes; Any confirmed US–Iran talk restart
|
|
#2 — US consumer fatigue — July retail sales −0.6%
🔥 2
Escalating
Probability: HIGH
• Impact: HIGH
• Horizon: 2-12 weeks
Watch: Home Depot earnings Aug 18; Target/Lowe’s Aug 19; Walmart Aug 20
|
|
#3 — Labor market rolling over (NFP −23k, revisions)
🔥 8
Stable
Probability: MEDIUM
• Impact: HIGH
• Horizon: 1-3 months
Watch: Weekly claims (4-wma vs 209k); Empire State employment diffusion today; Next NFP print
|
|
#4 — Credit complacency / HY spread compression
🔥 14
Stable
Probability: MEDIUM
• Impact: HIGH
• Horizon: 1-6 months
Watch: HY OAS (BAMLH0A0HYM2) holding near 2.71%; IG OAS near 0.79%; Any gap-widening on oil shock
|
|
#5 — Vol complacency into Fed minutes & retail earnings (VIX ~14.3)
New
Probability: MEDIUM
• Impact: MEDIUM
• Horizon: 1-3 weeks
Watch: VIX/VIX3M staying in contango (~0.77); Wednesday July FOMC minutes; HD/WMT guidance language
|
|
|
CRASH / BEAR-MARKET COVER PLAYBOOK
Regime: RISK-ON
| VIX |
14.25 / 25 |
Not Triggered
|
| 10Y-2Y spread |
0.51 / -0.2 |
Not Triggered
|
| HY OAS (BAMLH0A0HYM2) |
2.71 / 5 |
Not Triggered
|
| S&P drawdown from window high |
0 / -10 |
Not Triggered
|
If triggered today — do this now
• Trim high-beta AI/tech (RDDT, MU-style) to fund hedges
• Add SPY put spreads / VIXY and raise cash toward 15%
• Keep USO/GLD as oil-shock and real-rate hedges rather than cutting both
Hedge instruments: GLD, TLT, SH, VIXY
• Target cash: 15%
0/4 hard triggers fired (VIX 14.25, curve +51bp, HY OAS 2.71, SPX at window highs) so regime stays risk-on, but 3 of 8 populated internals are watch (stock-bond corr +0.38, gold/copper stress, HY-IG differential still tight). That matches a market calm on the surface with Hormuz/consumer cracks underneath — keep the crash checklist ready for minutes/earnings week.
|
|
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Spot BTC ETFs flipped from a +$865M inflow week (Aug 3–7) to roughly −$390M the following week, snapping ETH’s five-week inflow streak with a modest −$2.3M — institutional pipes cooled even as BTC holds the mid-$63k area.
Institutional Moves
US spot Bitcoin ETFs (complex)
Second full week of August saw ~$390M net outflows after the prior week’s ~$865M inflow surge, with only one green day in the five-session stretch.
US spot Ethereum ETFs (complex)
Five-week inflow streak snapped with a small ~$2.26M weekly net outflow — far milder than BTC’s redemption wave.
Adoption Landscape
[United States] Flow leadership remains concentrated in BTC/ETH products; Solana/XRP/Hyperliquid ETF sleeves saw only single-digit millions in the early-August inflow week, confirming institutions still refuse to broaden beyond the majors.
Asset Ideas
|
BTC-USD
HOLD 🔥 41-issue streak
Bitcoin
|
$63530.00
▲ +0.73%
|
Into the next ETF-flow prints, stay patient: price is stabilizing near $63.5k after the outflow week, but adding risk before flows flip back to multi-day green is chasing a tape that already failed to break $65k on $865M of prior inflows. HOLD until a fresh inflow cluster confirms demand.
⚡ Weekly ETF flow print (watch for re-acceleration) ⚡ FOMC minutes Wed as USD/real-yield swing factor
Invalidation: BTC closes below $60k on a weekly basis.
|
|
ETH-USD
HOLD 🔥 41-issue streak
Ethereum
|
$1899.63
▲ +0.91%
|
Over the next 1–2 weeks, ETH should trade as a satellite to BTC ETF flows rather than an independent breakout — the five-week inflow streak just broke, and $1,900 remains a ceiling until ETH ETFs print sustained green days again. HOLD.
⚡ ETH ETF daily flow stabilization ⚡ BTC leadership / risk-on beta
Invalidation: ETH closes below $1,750 on a weekly basis.
|
|
|
WHAT'S COMING UP
| 2026-08-17 |
Empire State Manufacturing Index
· risk_top5
|
| 2026-08-18 |
RDDT joins S&P 500 (effective open)
· us_equity_ideas
|
| 2026-08-18 |
Home Depot (HD) Q2 earnings
· us_equity_ideas
|
| 2026-08-19 |
Target / Lowe’s earnings — consumer check
· risk_top5
|
| 2026-08-20 |
July FOMC minutes + Walmart earnings
· risk_top5
|
| 2026-09-16 |
FOMC decision (Sep meeting)
· forex_rebalancing
|
| 2026-10-30 |
INO PDUFA (INO-3107)
· penny_plays
|
|
|
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
|
Tech US
Performance
|
Total Value
$102302.39
|
Cash
$35745.61
|
P&L
$2302.39 (+2.30%)
|
Realized P&L
$-2664.87
|
|
TWR
+2.30%
|
Sharpe
1.06
|
Max DD
-2.39%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
BUY
RDDT
×4.18
• dispatched
Add ahead of Aug 18 S&P 500 inclusion forced buying.
BUY
HD
×2.20
• dispatched
Position into Aug 18 earnings as consumer-resilience test.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes unavailable for this book today — every position below is marked at cost or last available estimate, not a fresh mark.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$8522.18
N/A
XOM ×120.40
$18330.57
N/A
UNH ×8.49
$3618.61
N/A
INTC ×14.08
$6182.42
N/A
MSFT ×11.91
$4848.05
N/A
SBUX ×11.63
$1239.82
N/A
CBRE ×8.29
$1239.81
N/A
AMZN ×4.38
$1190.23
N/A
CVX ×6.05
$1189.98
N/A
FRO ×30.23
$1190.22
N/A
PLTR ×5.87
$1095.02
N/A
MRVL ×13.67
$1073.11
N/A
CAT ×1.20
$1051.67
N/A
LLY ×1.71
$2020.43
N/A
ELF ×11.69
$1010.00
N/A
ABNB ×6.53
$989.80
N/A
TWLO ×5.12
$989.80
N/A
BRK-B ×1.78
$930.42
N/A
CSCO ×21.70
$2628.52
N/A
CRWV ×9.86
$893.57
N/A
AMAT ×4.69
$2490.12
N/A
MU ×1.67
$1567.61
N/A
RDDT ×8.54
$1520.11
N/A
HD ×2.20
$744.71
N/A
Track Record
5 On Track · 4 Lagging
PositionConviction ThenReturn SinceVerdict
RDDT (2026-08-15)
8/10
+0.00%
ON TRACK
MU (2026-08-13)
7.5/10
+3.41%
ON TRACK
AMAT (2026-08-11)
7.5/10
-4.57%
LAGGING
CSCO (2026-08-10)
7.5/10
-7.78%
LAGGING
PLTR (2026-08-09)
8/10
-6.68%
LAGGING
UNH (2026-07-19)
7/10
-5.72%
LAGGING
MSFT (2026-08-02)
7.5/10
+21.73%
ON TRACK
MRVL (2026-08-05)
7/10
+182.83%
ON TRACK
INTC (2026-07-30)
7/10
+18.80%
ON TRACK
|
|
Euro Only
Performance
|
Total Value
$116239.42
|
Cash
$50662.13
|
P&L
$16239.42 (+16.24%)
|
Realized P&L
$-1870.28
|
|
TWR
+16.24%
|
Sharpe
2.54
|
Max DD
-1.87%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
BUY
TTE.PA
×13.71
• dispatched
Add on Monday Hormuz shipping collapse supporting integrated oil cash flows.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes unavailable for this book today — every position below is marked at cost or last available estimate, not a fresh mark.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×2.28
$21594.47
N/A
TTE.PA ×296.62
$21773.39
N/A
UNA.AS ×48.50
$2832.95
N/A
KER.PA ×5.30
$1553.28
N/A
RR.L ×101.30
$1460.08
N/A
VIE.PA ×48.50
$1430.88
N/A
GLE.PA ×17.29
$1402.26
N/A
MNDI.L ×157.88
$1402.26
N/A
NWG.L ×190.73
$1346.17
N/A
ACA.PA ×69.87
$1346.48
N/A
PHIA.AS ×59.20
$1346.18
N/A
BESI.AS ×6.70
$1240.09
N/A
ENR.DE ×8.06
$1215.28
N/A
SIE.DE ×8.94
$2245.98
N/A
MSLH.L ×673.48
$2310.98
N/A
SAP.DE ×5.97
$1076.55
N/A
PositionConviction ThenReturn SinceVerdict
SAP.DE (2026-08-15)
7.5/10
+0.00%
ON TRACK
SIE.DE (2026-08-15)
7/10
+0.00%
ON TRACK
ASML.AS (2026-08-12)
7/10
+0.00%
ON TRACK
TTE.PA (2026-07-19)
7/10
+2.90%
ON TRACK
ENR.DE (2026-08-06)
7.5/10
+6.50%
ON TRACK
|
|
Penny Plays
Performance
|
Total Value
$95229.13
|
Cash
$84510.79
|
P&L
$-4770.87 (-4.77%)
|
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
|
|
TWR
-4.58%
|
Sharpe
-3.58
|
Max DD
-4.58%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
SELL
GOSS
×18577.85
• dispatched
• pending
Stopped out at -23.7% unrealized vs the -8% rule; order queued until US cash open.
Current Holdings
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
GOSS ×18577.85
$2864.70
-23.72%
PYPD ×859.73
$4075.11
+13.39%
STXS ×2738.06
$3778.52
+6.22%
Track Record
1 On Track · 1 Stopped Out
PositionConviction ThenReturn SinceVerdict
PYPD (2026-08-04)
7/10
+13.40%
ON TRACK
GOSS (2026-07-20)
6/10
-23.70%
STOPPED OUT
|
|
Anti-Fragile
Performance
|
Total Value
$100000.00
|
Cash
$100000.00
|
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
|
Realized P&L
$0.0000
|
|
TWR
+0.00%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
+0.00%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
|
|
Trend Follow
Performance
|
Total Value
$100000.00
|
Cash
$100000.00
|
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
|
Realized P&L
$0.0000
|
|
TWR
+0.00%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
+0.00%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
|
|
Commodities
Performance
|
Total Value
$100000.00
|
Cash
$64063.71
|
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
|
Realized P&L
$0.0000
|
|
TWR
+0.00%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
+0.00%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
BUY
USO
×10.54
• dispatched
Add on weekend Hormuz tanker traffic collapse (Kpler).
BUY
GLD
×3.32
• dispatched
Upgrade to BUY as gold reclaims $4,400 with ETF inflow streak.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes unavailable for this book today — every position below is marked at cost or last available estimate, not a fresh mark.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
USO ×160.67
$20711.43
N/A
GLD ×27.01
$10482.56
N/A
CPER ×83.09
$3235.64
N/A
SLV ×26.87
$1506.66
N/A
Track Record
1 On Track · 1 Lagging
PositionConviction ThenReturn SinceVerdict
USO (2026-08-11)
7/10
-1.90%
LAGGING
GLD (2026-08-06)
7/10
+3.90%
ON TRACK
|
|
Crypto
Performance
|
Total Value
$100000.00
|
Cash
$69426.36
|
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
|
Realized P&L
$0.0000
|
|
TWR
+0.00%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
+0.00%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes unavailable for this book today — every position below is marked at cost or last available estimate, not a fresh mark.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.27
$17284.77
N/A
ETH-USD ×6.23
$11840.32
N/A
BTC ×0.02
$1448.55
N/A
PositionConviction ThenReturn SinceVerdict
BTC-USD (2026-08-11)
6/10
-2.10%
LAGGING
ETH-USD (2026-08-06)
6.5/10
-0.10%
LAGGING
|
30-day hit rate across all portfolios: +60.00%
|
|
|
This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research before investing.
Morning Alpha • Generated Mon, 17 Aug 2026 06:54:07 GMT • info@gmc-works.com
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