GeneralThe Bottom Line 1 minThu’s Waller relief (S&P ~+1.1%, VIX ~14.3) cut Sep hike odds toward ~48% into Friday’s NFP — buy SNOW+HOOD and PUB.PA+DTE.DE, rotate commodities into GDX+SIL, and prefer BTC over ETH after…
THE BOTTOM LINE
RISK-ON=
Thu’s Waller relief (S&P ~+1.1%, VIX ~14.3) cut Sep hike odds toward ~48% into Friday’s NFP — buy SNOW+HOOD and PUB.PA+DTE.DE, rotate commodities into GDX+SIL, and prefer BTC over ETH after the Sep 2 ETF flow flip.
Today's Top Picks
SNOW
7.5/10
BTC-USD
7/10
PUB.PA
7/10
GDX
7/10
HOOD
7/10
Biggest Risk
September FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥3.75–4.00%)
Probability: High • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $622167.39
Blended P&L: +3.69% • 30d Hit Rate: +55.50%
6 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 62 of 111 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 102.8%, average loss -18.7%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 2 minInto Friday’s NFP, tape digests Thursday’s Waller relief: cash S&P last ~7748 (+1.1% Thu), VIX ~14.3. Focus is payrolls at 08:30 ET as the last labor print into Sep FOMC — soft data extends…
MARKET PULSE
Into Friday’s NFP, tape digests Thursday’s Waller relief: cash S&P last ~7748 (+1.1% Thu), VIX ~14.3. Focus is payrolls at 08:30 ET as the last labor print into Sep FOMC — soft data extends the soft-landing bid; hot data re-prices hike odds.
Book Risk-On 3/3 clear
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,747.71
yday 7,666.60
▲ +1.06%
Nasdaq Composite Data
26,584.06
yday 26,217.83
▲ +1.40%
Dow Jones Data
53,686.10
yday 53,061.95
▲ +1.18%
Euro Stoxx 50 Data
6,364.28
▼ -0.29%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
80,864.30
yday 78,043.50
▼ -0.50%
Ethereum Data
2,512.38
yday 2,412.75
▲ +0.17%
Volatility
VIX Data
14.32
yday 15.20
▼ -5.79%
VIX / VIX3M Data
0.76 ratio
yday 0.76 ratio
calm
VIX9D / VIX Data
1.08 ratio
yday 1.08 ratio
watch
Breadth
Stock-bond 20d correlation (SPY vs TLT) Data
0.40 ratio
yday 0.42 ratio
watch
Cross-asset
Average pairwise sector correlation (11 SPDRs, 20d) Data
0.18 ratio
yday 0.18 ratio
calm
Cover checks
VIX Data
14.32 / 25.00
yday 15.20
Not Triggered
Stock-bond 20d correlation (SPY vs TLT) Data
0.40 / 0.70
Not Triggered
Avg pairwise sector correlation (11 SPDRs, 20d) Data
0.19 / 0.55
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AIBrent/WTI still elevated on Hormuz risk plus a live Sep FOMC hike path (odds ~48% after Waller, not zero) keep growth intact but inflation binding — copper firming while HY OAS stays quiet. Into Sep FOMC stay inflationary_boom (gold+DBC up, TLT at 0) unless cyclicals and copper r
• Do not chase fresh semi longs while SMH EXIT remains active
• Use NFP print as the binary: soft → hold relief risk-on; hot → trim duration-sensitive growth
AIWaller cut Sep hike odds toward ~48% but oil’s Hormuz premium and still-positive growth keep inflation binding rather than a clean disinflationary bust — Gave inflationary_boom remains the working quadrant into NFP/FOMC.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 3 minThursday was a wall-of-worry squeeze: Fed Governor Waller leaned toward holding the funds rate if August inflation keeps cooling, traders marked September hike odds down into the high-40s f…
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Thursday was a wall-of-worry squeeze: Fed Governor Waller leaned toward holding the funds rate if August inflation keeps cooling, traders marked September hike odds down into the high-40s from ~67%, and the S&P 500 ripped to ~7748 (~+1.1%) while the VIX faded toward ~14.3. Risk appetite concentrated in software after Snowflake’s blowout print (~+17%), while USD/JPY snapped lower from ~160 toward the mid-156s without a confirmed MoF intervention headline.
How Yesterday Unfolded
Asia Asia into Thu was dominated by USDJPY sitting near multi-decade highs before the Waller-triggered squeeze; risk assets stayed cautious into the US speech window.
Europe Europe tracked the global relief bid as USD soft patches and equity futures firmed into the US open; Stoxx followed Wall Street’s lead rather than leading.
Waller’s hold lean cut near-term hike odds and recycled hedges into software multiples.
Pure crude beta chase → Gold/miners bid alongside still-elevated oil · Gold firmer; GDX/SIL constructive; WTI still elevated on Hormuz
Softer real-rate path supports bullion even while geopolitics floors oil — rotation is rates-driven, not a Hormuz unwind.
Key Drivers
Waller hold lean vs hike consensus — Governor Waller said he would likely support keeping rates unchanged at the Sep 15–16 meeting if inflation progress continues, knocking Sep hike odds from ~67% toward ~48% and sparking the equity/bond relief rally.
USDJPY squeeze — USDJPY dropped ~4 big figures from near 160 toward the mid-156s; markets debated MoF intervention vs a positioning flush after Waller.
Hormuz / Iran premium still in oil — Crude held elevated levels on US–Iran escalation and Strait of Hormuz risk even as rates dominated equity headlines.
Bridge to Today
Friday’s August employment report (08:30 ET) is the last major labor print into the Sep 15–16 FOMC. A soft NFP would reinforce Waller’s hold case; a hot print could re-price hike odds back toward 60%+ and reverse Thursday’s relief bid. Gold/miners keep the soft-landing / geopolitics bid; energy stays on Hormuz watch.
Over the next 1–2 weeks stay long SNOW as the post-print AI data-platform leader after Q2 FY27 revenue ~$1.55B (+35% y/y), adj. EPS $0.62 vs ~$0.45, and FY product revenue raise to ~$6.07B — Thursday’s ~+17% to ~$356 is…
Rev +35% y/y with product growth acceleratPost-print momentum + software peer sympatDated Sep 2–3 earnings + raise is the cataCleanest large-cap AI data-platform consumSNOW ~$356.47 after gap; size for post-ear
Fundamentals
8/10
Sentiment / flow
7/10
Catalyst
9/10
Narrative
8/10
Technicals
7/10
Q2 FY27: rev ~$1.55B / adj EPS $0.62 beat; FY product rev guide → ~$6.07BAI products a large share of acceleration per management commentaryAnti-repetition vs DELL+HAL — software platform not AI servers/OFS
Target
$420.00
Invalidation: Weekly close back below pre-earnings ~$305 with a cut to the new FY product-revenue guide.
TradingView's price for SNOW. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 1–2 weeks prefer HOOD after Morgan Stanley’s Sep 1 upgrade to Overweight and $150 PT (from $124) on monetization of ~28M funded users and prediction-market optionality — shares ripped into/through Waller…
Diversifying revenue beyond equity/crypto MS OW upgrade + $150 PT; bullish Street reDated Sep 1 MS upgrade is the catalyst intRetail platform + event-contract monetizatHOOD ~$124.72; momentum strong but extend-
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
8/10
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
7/10
MS Sep 1: upgrade to OW, PT $150 on ARPUs / prediction marketsPrediction markets ~$156M Q2 from a small slice of 28M users — monetization runwayAnti-rep vs DELL+HAL — fintech platform not hardware/energy services
Target
$150.00
Invalidation: Weekly close below $100 with adverse prediction-market regulation or MS thesis reverse.
TradingView's price for HOOD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 1–2 weeks buy PUB.PA at ~€103.25 after landing PepsiCo’s ~$1.7B global media account (AI-led “One PepsiCo” model across 200+ markets) and leading the CAC on the print. Conviction 7.0 on dated new-business…
Organic growth leadership among agencies; CAC leadership + new-business headline floDated PepsiCo global media win is the cataAI/data agency consolidation narrative vs PUB.PA ~€103.25 above short-term moving av
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
7/10
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
7/10
PepsiCo global media win ~$1.7B; exits Coke global pitch on conflictThu CAC leader ~+3.7% to ~€103 on the newsAnti-rep vs RWE.DE+ADYEN.AS — agencies not utilities/payments
Target
$115.00
Invalidation: Weekly close below €95 with confirmation the PepsiCo mandate is narrowed/lost.
TradingView's price for PUB.PA. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 1–2 weeks buy DTE.DE at ~€28.45 into the Sep 2–3 leadership refresh — AWS telecom VP Jan Hofmeyr named CTO (Nov 1) and Mirchandani lined up as next CFO — as a quality EU telco compounder with T-Mobile US…
Scale EU telco with majority TMUS stake; FLeadership news bid; activist stake rumorsDated CTO/CFO succession announcements SepAI/network upgrade + US wireless torque naDTE.DE ~€28.45; constructive range — accum
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
6/10
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
Sep 2–3: Hofmeyr (AWS) named CTO; Mirchandani next CFOLeadership “next generation” refresh into AI/network cycleAnti-rep vs RWE+ADYEN — telco not utility/fintech
Target
$32.00
Invalidation: Weekly close below €26.50 with a clearly value-destructive T-Mobile combination path.
TradingView's price for DTE.DE. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 2 minBFRI WATCH · OTLK WATCH
PENNY PLAYS
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BFRI=
Biofrontera Inc.
5
-0.66%
OTLK=
Outlook Therapeutics
4.5
+3.67%
BFRIPENNYWATCH🔥 7-issue streak=
Biofrontera Inc. • Healthcare
5/10Conviction
$1.51
▼ -0.66%
Into the Sep 28 Ameluz sBCC PDUFA, BFRI remains a dated-binary watch — scores 5.0/10 (narrative+catalyst real; balance-sheet/dilution and institutional signal keep it out of buy tier). Proxy on dermatology PDT label…
OTLK stays watchlist-only into the ophthalmic bevacizumab regulatory/clinical path — scores 4.5/10. Binary biotech without a buy-tier institutional or balance-sheet signal this run.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 5 minSMH remains EXIT under its 50-day (~-4.2% vs sma50); XBI/XLE/XLV/XLB HOLD above the 50-day. XLK stays HOLD. QQQ EXIT (not held). XLF clears BUY rules but no portfolio_target — SMH EXIT stil…
TREND FOLLOW
SMH remains EXIT under its 50-day (~-4.2% vs sma50); XBI/XLE/XLV/XLB HOLD above the 50-day. XLK stays HOLD. QQQ EXIT (not held). XLF clears BUY rules but no portfolio_target — SMH EXIT still PENDING so book is at max-5 capacity.
Leadership still concentrated in energy/biotech/healthcare/materials while semis stay broken; Snowflake’s software spike did not repair SMH/QQQ trend structure.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
3
+0.39%
XBI
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
7
-0.60%
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR
7
-0.74%
XLV
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
7
+0.18%
XLB
Materials Select Sector SPDR
7
-0.62%
XLK
Technology Select Sector SPDR
6
+1.29%
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust
3
+1.19%
XLF
Financial Select Sector SPDR
7
+1.56%
SMHTECHNOLOGYEXIT🔥 18-issue streak
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
3/10Conviction
$552.60
▲ +0.39%
Exit/stay flat semis while SMH remains below its 50-day (~577) — hard rule, no averaging down under the 50-day even after software AI fireworks.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sTrend rules + sector tape; news is secondaMomentum expression of SMH.Price vs 50-day drives the EXIT.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
3/10
SMH vs 50-day -4.18%
Invalidation: Stay flat while below 50-day (~$576.69).
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
SMH · 20d illustrative range
XBIHEALTHCAREHOLD🔥 17-issue streak
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
7/10Conviction
$164.38
▼ -0.60%
Hold biotech while XBI stays above its 50-day — momentum sleeve intact.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sTrend rules + sector tape; news is secondaMomentum expression of XBI.Price vs 50-day drives the HOLD.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
7/10
XBI vs 50-day +4.34%
Invalidation: Break below 50-day (~$157.54).
TradingView's price for XBI. It is not the last print in this letter.
XBI · 20d illustrative range
XLEENERGYHOLD🔥 18-issue streak
Energy Select Sector SPDR
7/10Conviction
$64.62
▼ -0.74%
Hold energy while XLE stays above its 50-day — Hormuz premium keeps the trend sleeve constructive.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sTrend rules + sector tape; news is secondaMomentum expression of XLE.Price vs 50-day drives the HOLD.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
7/10
XLE vs 50-day +9.94%
Invalidation: Break below 50-day (~$58.78).
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLE · 20d illustrative range
XLVHEALTHCAREHOLD🔥 17-issue streak
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
7/10Conviction
$173.26
▲ +0.18%
Hold healthcare while XLV stays above its 50-day.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sTrend rules + sector tape; news is secondaMomentum expression of XLV.Price vs 50-day drives the HOLD.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
7/10
XLV vs 50-day +5.00%
Invalidation: Break below 50-day (~$165.01).
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLBMATERIALSHOLD🔥 17-issue streak
Materials Select Sector SPDR
7/10Conviction
$52.62
▼ -0.62%
Hold materials while XLB stays above its 50-day.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sTrend rules + sector tape; news is secondaMomentum expression of XLB.Price vs 50-day drives the HOLD.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
7/10
XLB vs 50-day +1.62%
Invalidation: Break below 50-day (~$51.78).
TradingView's price for XLB. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLKTECHNOLOGYHOLD🔥 9-issue streak
Technology Select Sector SPDR
6/10Conviction
$185.97
▲ +1.29%
Hold XLK while above 50-day even if vs_spy_20d soft — not an EXIT until the 50-day breaks.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sTrend rules + sector tape; news is secondaMomentum expression of XLK.Price vs 50-day drives the HOLD.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
7/10
XLK vs 50-day +1.91%
Invalidation: Break below 50-day (~$182.49).
TradingView's price for XLK. It is not the last print in this letter.
QQQTECHNOLOGYEXIT🔥 8-issue streak
Invesco QQQ Trust
3/10Conviction
$717.67
▲ +1.19%
QQQ EXIT rule while below 50-day / broken RS — not held; do not initiate.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sTrend rules + sector tape; news is secondaMomentum expression of QQQ.Price vs 50-day drives the EXIT.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
3/10
QQQ vs 50-day +0.95%
Invalidation: Stay flat while below 50-day (~$710.89).
TradingView's price for QQQ. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLFFINANCIALSBUY🔥 2-issue streak
Financial Select Sector SPDR
7/10Conviction
$58.56
▲ +1.56%
XLF clears BUY rules (above 50-day with constructive RS) but dispatch is capacity-gated while SMH EXIT remains PENDING at max-5.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sTrend rules + sector tape; news is secondaMomentum expression of XLF.Price vs 50-day drives the BUY.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
7/10
XLF vs 50-day +3.34%
Invalidation: Break below 50-day (~$56.67).
TradingView's price for XLF. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minFlow regime flipped into NFP: US spot BTC ETFs rebounded +~$101M on Sep 2 after the ~$236M Sep 1 outflow, while ETH’s ~12-session inflow streak ended with ~−$48M — prefer BTC BUY over ETH t…
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Flow regime flipped into NFP: US spot BTC ETFs rebounded +~$101M on Sep 2 after the ~$236M Sep 1 outflow, while ETH’s ~12-session inflow streak ended with ~−$48M — prefer BTC BUY over ETH today (anti-repetition vs the long ETH-BUY streak).
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
7
-0.50%
ETH-USD
Ethereum
5.5
+0.17%
BTC-USDBUY
Bitcoin
7/10Conviction
$80864.30
▼ -0.50%
Flip BTC to BUY at ~$80,864 after the Sep 2 ~$101M spot-ETF inflow rebound repaired the Sep 1 ~$236M outflow shock — flow freshness now favors BTC over ETH into NFP. Conviction 7.0; invalidation is a weekly close below…
BTC scarcity + ETF plumbing remain intact;IBIT-led +$101M inflow day repairs sentimeDated Sep 2 ETF flow print is the catalystDigital gold / liquidity-sensitive macro nBTC ~$80,864; constructive above $74k inva
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
7/10
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
7/10
US spot BTC ETFs +$101.1M Sep 2 after −$236.5M Sep 1Anti-rep vs multi-week ETH-BUY preference — flows favor BTC todayNFP Sep 4 macro gate
Invalidation: Weekly close below $74,000 with another >$200M BTC ETF outflow session.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Treat ETH as HOLD at ~$2,512 after US spot ETH ETFs printed ~−$48M on Sep 2 and ended a ~12-session inflow streak — do not add while BTC flows are the fresher signal. Conviction 5.5; invalidation for a later re-BUY is a…
ETH staking/ETF plumbing intact but near-tInflow streak break is a soft sentiment hiDated Sep 2 outflow ending the streak is tAI/tokenization narrative still medium-terETH ~$2,512; HOLD existing, no fresh add.
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
4/10
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
ETH ETF inflow streak ended Sep 2 (~−$48M)Anti-rep: stop defaulting to ETH BUY while BTC flows leadNFP vol gate
Invalidation: For re-BUY: renewed ≥3-day ETH ETF inflow streak with ETH/BTC RS turning up.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 3 minInto NFP and with oil’s Hormuz premium already well-owned via USO, today’s commodities book pivots to gold/silver miner torque via GDX+SIL — anti-repetition vs yesterday’s UNG+CPER — while…
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Into NFP and with oil’s Hormuz premium already well-owned via USO, today’s commodities book pivots to gold/silver miner torque via GDX+SIL — anti-repetition vs yesterday’s UNG+CPER — while USO stays HOLD rather than a fresh add.
Waller’s hold lean and softer USD overnight support bullion; Friday payrolls are the swing factor for real yields. Geopolitical oil risk still floors WTI, but…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
GDX
VanEck Gold Miners ETF
7
+3.95%
SIL
Global X Silver Miners ETF
6.5
+2.71%
USO
United States Oil Fund
5.5
+0.67%
VanEck Gold Miners ETFPRECIOUS METALBUY
GDX
7/10Conviction
$101.49
▲ +3.95%
Over the next 1–2 weeks prefer gold-miner beta via GDX at ~$101.49 as the anti-rep metals expression while spot gold holds elevated after Waller’s hold lean — miners offer operating leverage if real yields stay soft…
Miner margins expand when gold holds elevaPost-Waller bullion bid and ETF interest iNFP today + Sep 15–16 FOMC are dated rate Soft-landing / lower-for-longer narrative GDX ~$101.49 constructive near highs; buy
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
7/10
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
7/10
Waller hold lean → softer real-rate path into Sep FOMCAnti-repetition vs Thu UNG+CPER — miners not gas/copperGold near highs with USD softer into NFP
Invalidation: GDX weekly close back below $95 on a hot NFP / real-yield spike.
TradingView's price for GDX. It is not the last print in this letter.
Pair GDX with SIL at ~$101.36 for silver-miner torque — silver still trades as both monetary metal and industrial input, giving asymmetric upside if NFP softens USD without killing growth. Conviction 6.5; invalidation…
Silver miners levered to Ag price; cost inFlows rotate into precious metals complex Same NFP/FOMC rate window as GDX with highIndustrial demand + monetary hedge narratiSIL ~$101.36; prefer holds above $75.
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
6/10
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
6/10
Silver industrial+monetary dual bid with softer USD pathAnti-rep miner pair alongside GDX (not UNG/CPER)NFP USD reaction as near-term trigger
Invalidation: SIL weekly close below $75 with silver breaking lower on strong USD.
TradingView's price for SIL. It is not the last print in this letter.
USO at ~$142.09 stays HOLD — Hormuz/Iran risk still floors crude, but after recent oil-heavy BUYs and with the commodities book already long USO, do not add. Manage existing risk; invalidation for a later re-BUY would…
Oil balances still geopolitically tight; UEnergy owned; flows not chasing new crude Iran/Hormuz headlines remain the dated risGeopolitical risk premium narrative intactUSO ~$142.09; HOLD existing, no fresh add.
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
5/10
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
US–Iran / Strait of Hormuz premium still liveAlready held in commodities paper book — no addAnti-repetition: prefer miners today over another crude BUY
Invalidation: For re-BUY: USO weekly close with Hormuz risk clearly fading and crude losing its premium floor.
TradingView's price for USO. It is not the last print in this letter.
BoJ policy meeting (Sep 17–18) — post-yen squeeze
· forex_rebalancing
2026-09-28
BFRI Ameluz sBCC PDUFA
· penny_plays
Stocks
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 8 min30d hit rate 56%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech-US
+1.46%
Euro-only
+21.09%
Anti-Fragile
+0.00%
Trend Follow
-0.38%
Commodities
+0.00%
Crypto
+0.00%
Named holdings. 104 smaller positions (28.55%) are off this picture.
Tech-US
Performance
Total Value
$101462.72
Cash
$13703.57
P&L
$1462.72 (+1.46%)
Realized P&L
$-3181.65
TWR
+1.79%
Sharpe
0.47
Max DD
-2.39%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions86%
Cash14%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Sell
CSCO
21.7
pending
Sell
RDDT
12.88
pending
Buy
SNOW
0.8006
dispatched
Buy
HOOD
2.24
dispatched
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$8728.90
+2.4%
XOM ×129
$20896.20
+6.1%
UNH ×8.49
$3405.02
-5.9%
INTC ×14.08
$1290.78
-79.1%
MSFT ×11.91
$6076.80
+25.3%
SBUX ×11.63
$1230.28
-0.8%
CBRE ×8.29
$1233.26
-0.5%
AMZN ×5.95
$1541.16
-4.2%
+35 more holdings
Track Record
22 On Track · 15 Lagging · 13 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
INTC (2026-07-30)
7.5/10
+6.2%
On Track
MSFT (2026-07-30)
7.5/10
+14.9%
On Track
SBUX (2026-07-30)
7.5/10
-0.8%
Lagging
CBRE (2026-07-30)
7/10
-0.5%
Lagging
AMZN (2026-07-31)
8/10
+9.9%
On Track
PWR (2026-07-31)
7.5/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
MPWR (2026-08-01)
7.5/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
CVX (2026-08-01)
7/10
+7.4%
On Track
FRO (2026-08-02)
7/10
+15.4%
On Track
PLTR (2026-08-03)
6.5/10
+48.3%
On Track
AMD (2026-08-03)
7/10
-6.0%
Lagging
VRTX (2026-08-03)
6/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
FANG (2026-08-03)
6/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
CAT (2026-08-04)
6.5/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
MRVL (2026-08-05)
7/10
+166.0%
On Track
LLY (2026-08-06)
8/10
-0.9%
Lagging
ELF (2026-08-06)
6.5/10
+24.4%
On Track
DIS (2026-08-06)
7/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
NVDA (2026-08-06)
7.5/10
+4.2%
On Track
ABNB (2026-08-07)
7.5/10
+22.2%
On Track
TWLO (2026-08-07)
7/10
+24.5%
On Track
NET (2026-08-08)
8.5/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
HALO (2026-08-09)
7.5/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
BRK-B (2026-08-10)
7.5/10
-2.6%
Lagging
CSCO (2026-08-10)
7/10
-10.6%
Stopped Out
CRWV (2026-08-10)
6.5/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
AMAT (2026-08-11)
7/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
MU (2026-08-13)
7.5/10
+5.1%
On Track
RDDT (2026-08-15)
8/10
-12.4%
Stopped Out
HD (2026-08-17)
7.5/10
-6.1%
Lagging
XOM (2026-08-18)
7.5/10
+0.5%
On Track
VLO (2026-08-18)
7/10
+6.8%
On Track
WMT (2026-08-19)
6.5/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
TGT (2026-08-20)
7.5/10
+3.1%
On Track
MRK (2026-08-20)
7/10
+0.1%
On Track
ADI (2026-08-21)
8/10
-3.7%
Lagging
ROST (2026-08-21)
7/10
+1.2%
On Track
AVGO (2026-08-22)
7/10
-3.1%
Lagging
OI (2026-08-24)
7/10
-2.1%
Lagging
INTU (2026-08-25)
7/10
-6.9%
Lagging
V (2026-08-25)
7/10
-1.0%
Lagging
CRWD (2026-08-27)
8/10
+2.9%
On Track
CRM (2026-08-28)
8/10
+4.9%
On Track
ESTC (2026-08-29)
8/10
-3.8%
Lagging
GAP (2026-08-30)
7/10
-4.9%
Lagging
SHEL (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
+1.6%
On Track
NAT (2026-08-31)
7/10
+4.9%
On Track
SLB (2026-09-01)
7/10
-4.5%
Lagging
DELL (2026-09-03)
7.5/10
+4.9%
On Track
HAL (2026-09-03)
6.5/10
-0.9%
Lagging
Euro-only
Performance
Total Value
$121086.29
Cash
$23443.88
P&L
$21086.29 (+21.09%)
Realized P&L
$-42835.98
TWR
+21.09%
Sharpe
1.60
Max DD
-15.84%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions81%
Cash19%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
PUB.PA
4.73
dispatched
Buy
DTE.DE
16.82
dispatched
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702
$23967.39
+0.0%
TTE.PA ×364
$26944.15
+0.0%
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
+0.0%
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
+0.0%
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
+0.0%
GLE.PA ×17.29
$1402.26
+0.0%
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
+0.0%
NWG.L ×191
$1346.17
+0.0%
+28 more holdings
Track Record
21 On Track · 7 Lagging · 8 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
RR.L (2026-07-30)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
VIE.PA (2026-07-30)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
GLE.PA (2026-07-30)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
MNDI.L (2026-07-30)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
SU.PA (2026-07-31)
7/10
+6.0%
On Track
UBSG.SW (2026-07-31)
6.5/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
GSK.L (2026-07-31)
6.5/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
ACA.PA (2026-08-01)
6.5/10
-0.7%
Lagging
NWG.L (2026-08-01)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
PHIA.AS (2026-08-02)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ASML.AS (2026-08-04)
6.5/10
+3490.9%
On Track
BESI.AS (2026-08-05)
7/10
+0.0%
Lagging
ENR.DE (2026-08-06)
7.5/10
-3.6%
Lagging
SIE.DE (2026-08-07)
7/10
-5.1%
Lagging
BP.L (2026-08-09)
7/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
MSLH.L (2026-08-10)
6.5/10
-98.0%
Stopped Out
SAP.DE (2026-08-15)
7.5/10
+3.0%
On Track
TTE.PA (2026-08-17)
7/10
-1.8%
Lagging
FLS.CO (2026-08-20)
7/10
-86.3%
Stopped Out
NSIS-B.CO (2026-08-21)
7/10
-86.6%
Stopped Out
EVD.DE (2026-08-22)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SHEL.L (2026-08-22)
6/10
-98.8%
Stopped Out
BAVA.CO (2026-08-23)
7/10
-86.6%
Stopped Out
SHL.DE (2026-08-24)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
ABN.AS (2026-08-24)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
INW.MI (2026-08-25)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
MT.AS (2026-08-25)
6.5/10
+0.0%
Lagging
DEME.BR (2026-08-27)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
EOAN.DE (2026-08-27)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
FGR.PA (2026-08-28)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
ALV.DE (2026-08-29)
6.5/10
+0.0%
Lagging
LR.PA (2026-08-31)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ENI.MI (2026-09-02)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
REP.MC (2026-09-02)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
RWE.DE (2026-09-03)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
ADYEN.AS (2026-09-03)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
Penny Plays
Performance
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Hold
—
0.0000
—
Current Holdings
⚠ Yahoo/avg-cost fallbacks — PM marks null this run.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578
$3755.55
+0.0%
PYPD ×1564
$6940.50
+0.0%
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
+0.0%
Track Record
1 On Track · 1 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
PYPD (2026-07-30)
6/10
+8.8%
On Track
STXS (2026-07-30)
7/10
-3.0%
Lagging
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$35000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
N/A
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
N/A
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions65%
Cash35%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Hold
—
0.0000
—
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65
$25291.62
+1.2%
IEF ×108
$9939.68
-0.6%
DBC ×654
$20916.23
+4.6%
SPLV ×132
$9933.98
-0.7%
Trend Follow
Performance
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$75717.93
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
TWR
-0.38%
Sharpe
-10.55
Max DD
-0.38%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions24%
Cash76%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Sell
SMH
5.03
pending
Buy
XLF
0.0000
—
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86
$5677.33
+2.5%
SMH ×5.03
$2781.84
-7.0%
XLV ×30.27
$5245.00
+0.7%
XBI ×32
$5260.10
+1.0%
XLB ×93.53
$4921.48
-0.7%
Commodities
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$30160.74
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
N/A
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
N/A
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions70%
Cash30%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
GDX
6.19
dispatched
Buy
SIL
6.07
dispatched
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×202
$28769.72
+9.7%
GLD ×30.1
$12349.34
+5.2%
CPER ×136
$5427.72
+1.0%
SLV ×84.48
$5115.45
+2.3%
PPLT ×66.63
$1111.38
+0.0%
BNO ×35.14
$1850.57
+0.0%
URA ×23.16
$1066.93
+0.0%
UGA ×26.78
$3377.87
+0.0%
+9 more holdings
Track Record
13 On Track · 2 Lagging · 2 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
HG=F (2026-07-30)
6.5/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
GC=F (2026-07-31)
6.5/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
GLD (2026-08-03)
6.5/10
+10.4%
On Track
LIT (2026-08-04)
6.5/10
+9.7%
On Track
SLV (2026-08-06)
6.5/10
+8.0%
On Track
USO (2026-08-11)
6.5/10
+12.8%
On Track
CPER (2026-08-18)
7/10
-0.6%
Lagging
PPLT (2026-08-21)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
BNO (2026-08-21)
7/10
-1.5%
Lagging
URA (2026-08-22)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
UGA (2026-08-22)
7/10
+0.2%
On Track
CORN (2026-08-23)
6/10
+2.4%
On Track
PALL (2026-08-24)
6.5/10
+2.4%
On Track
WEAT (2026-08-24)
6/10
+6.1%
On Track
UNG (2026-08-25)
6.5/10
+3.4%
On Track
CANE (2026-08-28)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SOYB (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
Crypto
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$33411.89
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
N/A
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
N/A
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions67%
Cash33%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Hold
BTC-USD
0.0000
—
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.4718
$38149.59
+17.2%
ETH-USD ×13.25
$33296.67
+15.2%
BTC ×0.0223
$1803.27
+24.5%
SOL-USD ×26.81
$2795.91
+0.0%
XRP-USD ×628
$868.24
+0.0%
Track Record
5 On Track · 1 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
ETH (2026-08-01)
6/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
BTC (2026-08-04)
6.5/10
+26.8%
On Track
BTC-USD (2026-08-18)
6.5/10
+26.1%
On Track
ETH-USD (2026-08-20)
7/10
+11.1%
On Track
SOL-USD (2026-08-27)
6/10
+3.0%
On Track
XRP-USD (2026-08-29)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +55.50%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Penny-stock risk: very low-priced, thinly traded securities can be illiquid, volatile and easy to manipulate. Spreads can be wide, exits may be impossible at the quoted price, and you can lose your entire investment. Ideas in this category are diligence starting points, not a buy list.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.