MORNING ALPHA

Daily Financial Newsletter

Thursday, September 10, 2026 · 09:14:32 · archived issue
EN FR
Read the Full Letter Here Support Morning Alpha
⚠ Data quality: DEGRADED
market_pulse — SPX analytics stamps composition close 7673.52 vs live Wed FMP 7636.36 (−2.22% from ATH 7810). FRED tiles are single-observation (no delta_bp). DTWEXBGS is weekly 2026-08-28. CL=F hist 94.32 vs web WTI settle $96.05 — published web. VIX9D/VIX3M/MOVE lack tradeDate.
yesterday_retrospective — GET /movers?index=SPX returned a stale/broken table (MRNA −100%) — movers[] omitted. Asia/EU index /price spots stale; Wed session moves from Reuters/Mainichi/FT used for Nikkei/HSI/DAX/FTSE.
us_equity_ideas — 13F/insider/sentiment empty for MRK/JEF — flow factors null. JEF SimFin TTM NI $45m is unusable (fundamentals null). Screener PE missing on both.
eu_equity_ideas — eu_fundamentals_gap — RIO.L aggregator fundamentals empty. Spot is Stooq JS; published last hist/screener 7641p (Sep 4). Alliance News Sydney −3.3% Thu noted, not a second LSE print.
penny_plays — screener unavailable or empty for category=penny — fell back to web search; penny universe may not be seeded yet. No new sub-$5 name cleared ≥6/10; did not recycle BFRI/OTLK (13-run streak, no new catalyst).
forex_rebalancing — squawk-alert feed unavailable — fell back to central-bank web search for same-day FX events. FX pair spots Stooq JS; hist stale through 2026-08-29. EURUSD 1.1640 from Yahoo live. USDJPY 153.60 from FT.com tape, not a fresh aggregator pair print.
commodities_outlook — USO/CPER /price spots Stooq JS; used history (USO 146.03 / CPER 40.57 on Sep 8). CL=F 94.32 vs web WTI $96.05. COT/positioning empty. Book already loaded — HOLD, no new BUY.
crypto_landscape — Spot ETF flow print is still week-ended-Sep-4 / three-week streak, not a Wed tape. No L2Beat/stablecoin supply number this run.
trend_follow — Universe still <200 closes — sma200 null, 200-day test fails, zero BUY. Last ETF prints Sep 8. SMH 573.73 ≤ sma50 578.39 — EXIT remains live.
risk_cover_playbook — Put/call omitted (no options-flow endpoint). MOVE/VIX9D/VIX3M spots have no tradeDate. Stock-bond 20d corr uses hist through Sep 8.
portfolio_reality_check — SMH price rejected by Portfolio Manager's plausibility guard — see trade history
portfolio_reality_check — Euro-only/Penny Plays/Commodities/Crypto/Anti-Fragile/Trend Follow books all_prices_estimated. INTC −76% is a cost-basis outlier — ignored for stop-loss. Only published post-reset 30d picks at ≤ −8% trigger a stop.
THE BOTTOM LINE
RISK-ON
Oil jumped after Hormuz tanker attacks and a $6B Treasury buyback disappointed; PPI and the ECB decision land today with FOMC hike odds near 60%.
Today's Top Picks
MRK
7.2/10
RIO.L
7/10
BTC-USD
7/10
JEF
6.3/10
Biggest Risk
September FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥3.75–4.00%)
Probability: Medium • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $717913.01
Blended P&L: +3.15% • 30d Hit Rate: +67.80%
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Wednesday was the third down day: SPX 7636.36 −0.48% and the Dow −0.77% as Brent settled $101.21 and 10s popped to ~4.83% after Bessent’s $6B buyback disappointed.
Bridge to Today
Today’s PPI (12:30 GMT) and the 13:15 CET ECB decision are the two prints that decide whether Wednesday’s oil-and-yield backup sticks into Friday CPI and the Sep 16–17 FOMC.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Brent’s $101.21 settle is the inflation sleeve; copper still near a record on AI/tariff stockpiling — HOLD both, the paper book is already loaded.
Oil + copper up together with real 10y at 2.43% is an inflationary-boom mix, not a bust: if PPI/CPI today–Friday do not fade the oil shock, expect energy and…
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
USO WTI crude (USO) 7.2 +2.87%
CPER Copper (CPER) 7 +1.55%
WTI crude (USO)  ENERGY HOLD 🔥 10-issue streak
USO
7.2/10 Conviction
$146.03
▲ +2.87%
Into PPI/CPI/FOMC, treat $100 Brent as the live inflation sleeve: HOLD the existing USO lot rather than chase a 9-day repeat add.
Physical dated-Brent >$100 since Sep 3; EINo COT/positioning feed — sentiment_flow nWed Brent $101.21 settle; Iran/US tanker aOil-as-inflation-shock into PPI/CPI/FOMC, Hist 146.03 Sep 8 (+2.87% vs Sep 4); Wed W
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
7/10
Brent settled $101.21 Wed; WTI $96.05 (web) after Hormuz tanker attacks EIA raised 2026–27 oil-price forecasts as Middle East supply stays disrupted PPI 2026-09-10 and FOMC 2026-09-16 are the next oil-to-rates tests
Invalidation: Brent sustains a close back below $90 with Hormuz flows normalizing.
Copper (CPER)  INDUSTRIAL METAL HOLD 🔥 2-issue streak
CPER
7/10 Conviction
$40.57
▲ +1.55%
Over the next sessions stay with copper as the growth metal: record LME + US tariff stockpiles is a different tape than oil, so HOLD not a third energy add.
LME copper ~$14,680–14,780/t; tight mine +No COT/positioning feed — sentiment_flow nTariff-stockpile + AI infra; Caixin recordGrowth metal still bid while oil is the inHist 40.57 Sep 8; HG=F 6.79 Sep 9 — last E
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
6/10
LME copper near $14,680–14,780/t, ~50% above Sep-2025 (Caixin Sep 10) US buyers stockpiling ahead of a still-unpublished Commerce tariff assessment Winu/Rio consent the same morning is the mine-side confirmation
Invalidation: LME copper loses $13,000/t on a weekly close with AI-capex cuts.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
MARKET PULSE
Tightening
UST 3y
4.44
UST 10y
4.8
UST 30y
5.25
Eff. fed funds
3.63
USD broad (weekly)
118.7479
VIX
16.46
HY OAS
2.67
UST 10y 4.80 (Sep 8 FRED) / ~4.83 web, VIX 16.46, HY OAS 2.67, weekly USD 118.75 (Aug 28), SPY−RSP d1 +0.46 — yields and vol up, breadth still 69.7% above SMA200.
S&P 500
7636.36
▼ -0.48%
NASDAQ
26253.34
▼ -0.64%
Dow Jones
52380.66
▼ -0.77%
Russell 2K
2921.2344
▼ -1.32%
VIX
16.46
▲ +4.71%
EUR/USD
1.164
▼ -0.04%
Gold
4443.7
▲ +0.12%
Oil (WTI)
96.05
▲ +3.25%
Bitcoin
78195
▼ -1.22%
10Y Yield
4.83
▲ +0.50%
% from 52w
-1.75%
% from ATH
-1.75%
% advancing
53.0%
% > SMA200
69.7%
SPY−RSP 1d
+0.46%
SPX 7636.36 −0.48% and VIX 16.46 sit −2.22% from the ATH while 10s are 4.80–4.84% and SPY−RSP d1 is +0.46 — a tightening, concentrated tape into today’s PPI.
US EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
MRK Merck & Co., Inc. 7.2 -1.86%
JEF Jefferies Financial Group 6.3 +0.04%
MRK  VALUE BUY
Merck & Co., Inc. • Health Care
7.2/10 Conviction
$147.53
▼ -1.86%
Into WINREVAIR’s Sep 21 PDUFA, the Leerink $161 PT (from $127) is the 24h re-rate: $147.53 already prices the cost-cut tape, not the label print.
Leerink PT $161ROE 34.7%PDUFA Sep 21RSI 74
Fundamentals
8/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
6/10
Leerink Partners Outperform, PT $161 from $127 on 2026-09-09 WINREVAIR sBLA PDUFA 2026-09-21 (HYPERION label update) 54-job Rahway WARN is the $3B cost-cut continuation, not a thesis break
Target
$161.00
Invalidation: PDUFA miss/delay or weekly close back below $140.
JEF  VALUE BUY
Jefferies Financial Group • Financials
6.3/10 Conviction
$55.25
▲ +0.04%
Into Q3, GS’s $67 PT (from $65, Buy) is the 24h print: a 35% M&A backlog vs 27% peers is the path if underwriting is only modestly soft.
GS PT $67M&A backlog 35%SimFin NI unusable
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
Goldman Sachs Buy, PT $67 from $65 on 2026-09-09 ahead of Q3 GS: advisory stronger, underwriting modestly weaker, trading unchanged
Target
$67.00
Invalidation: Q3 advisory miss or weekly close back below $51.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
RIO.L Rio Tinto plc 7 +0.39%
RIO.L  COMMODITY BUY
Rio Tinto plc • Materials
7/10 Conviction
$7641.00
▲ +0.39%
Over the next sessions, Winu consent plus record copper is the why-now: 7641p is the growth-metal name vs another energy add.
Winu consentCu ~$14.8k/tPrice last 7641p Sep 4
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
6/10
Project agreement with Nyangumarta for Winu Cu-Au mine (Alliance News 2026-09-10) LME copper near record ~$14,780/t on AI demand and US tariff stockpiles
Invalidation: Winu FID cancelled or LME copper weekly close below $13,000/t.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
PENNY PLAYS
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
FOREX REBALANCING RADAR
Base currency: EUR
Currency vs EUR Short-term Medium-term Long-term
USD 🔥14 SEEK (5) SEEK (3) NEUTRAL (1)
JPY 🔥13 AVOID (-4) AVOID (-3) NEUTRAL (0)
GBP 🔥8 NEUTRAL (0) NEUTRAL (1) NEUTRAL (0)
CHF 🔥5 NEUTRAL (1) NEUTRAL (1) NEUTRAL (0)
Suggested rebalancing actions
INCREASE USD vs EUR — Hike-odds and 10y 4.83% still pay vs ECB 2.25% into today’s PPI.
Conviction60%
DECREASE JPY vs EUR — Oil $100 plus a 153.60 USDJPY keeps JPY as the import-pain funding currency.
Conviction50%
TOP 5 RISKS RIGHT NOW
#RiskProbabilityImpactTrend
1September FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥3.75–4.00%)MediumHighStable
2Hormuz escalation re-accelerates and turns oil into a growth shockHighHighEscalating
3Oracle/Adobe earnings miss as oil inflation hits software multiplesMediumMediumNew
4USD/JPY air-pocket morphs into disorderly MoF/BoJ policy responseLowHighStable
5ECB hawkish pause risk — markets price 2.50% but hear 2.75% guidanceMediumMediumEscalating
Watch: August PPI 2026-09-10 12:30 GMT
CRASH / BEAR-MARKET COVER PLAYBOOK
Regime: RISK-ON
VIX 16.46 / 25 Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread 0.4 / -0.2 Not Triggered
HY OAS 2.67 / 5 Not Triggered
SPX drawdown from ATH -2.22 / -10 Not Triggered
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Block filed for an OCC trust bank to custody BTC and stablecoins; US spot BTC ETFs still own the three-week +$3.8B bid. ETH remains the second sleeve, not a third-alt chase.
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
BTC-USD Bitcoin 7 -1.22%
ETH-USD Ethereum 5.8 -1.08%
BTC-USD  BUY 🔥 8-issue streak
Bitcoin
7/10 Conviction
$78195.00
▼ -1.22%
Keep BTC as the core sleeve into FOMC: the three-week ETF bid plus Block’s OCC filing still support BUY; size is an add, not a new name.
On-chain/hash not pulled — fundamentals nuBTC ETFs +$986.9M week to Sep 4; $3.8B in Block OCC trust-bank filing (Sep 8–9) + FOInstitutional custody + ETF bid still the CoinGecko 78195 −1.22% vs 79157; 10d range
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
8/10
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
6/10
Spot BTC ETFs +$986.9M week / +$3.8B three weeks (print through Sep 4) Block OCC trust-bank filing Sep 8–9 FOMC Sep 16 as the next vol event
Invalidation: Weekly close back below 72000 with a week of net ETF outflows.
ETH-USD  HOLD 🔥 7-issue streak
Ethereum
5.8/10 Conviction
$2472.88
▼ -1.08%
Hold the existing ETH lot as sleeve two: +$218M weekly ETF inflows are real but a distant #2, and there is no dated network catalyst today.
On-chain/L2 TVL not pulled this run — fundETH ETFs +$218.4M same week; still a distaNo fresh network upgrade today — FOMC is tSecond sleeve, not a chase; keep vs addingCoinGecko 2472.88 −1.08% vs 2499.85; range
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
6/10
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
US spot ETH ETFs +$218.4M in the same week-ended-Sep-4 print FOMC Sep 16 vol — not an ETH-specific upgrade
Invalidation: Weekly close back below 2200 with ETH ETFs flipping to net outflows.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
TREND FOLLOW
Zero new BUY: still no 200-session history, so the 200-day test fails. SMH 573.73 remains ≤ sma50 578.39 — EXIT the lot. Energy/biotech/health/materials stay HOLD.
7 of 18 universe names close above their 50-day — same narrow tape as yesterday, not a fresh BUY list.
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF 5 +0.00%
XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR 7 +1.11%
XBI SPDR S&P Biotech ETF 5.5 +0.00%
XLV Health Care Select Sector SPDR 5.5 -2.52%
XLB Materials Select Sector SPDR 6 -0.95%
SMH  INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY EXIT 🔥 25-issue streak
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
5/10 Conviction
$573.73
▲ +0.00%
Exit the SMH lot: the 50-day rule is live at 573.73 ≤ 578.39; oil-sensitive semis do not get a discretionary override.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sSemi tape still oil-sensitive; rule, not aRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s573.73 ≤ sma50 578.39 — hard EXIT.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
5/10
Close ≤ sma50 is the mandate exit Oil $100 still the tape tax on high-beta tech
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$578.39) would only stop a re-entry, not this EXIT.
XLE  ENERGY HOLD 🔥 25-issue streak
Energy Select Sector SPDR
7/10 Conviction
$64.77
▲ +1.11%
Hold energy beta while XLE stays above its 50-day; Brent $100 is confirmation, not a new BUY without sma200.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sBrent $100 is the energy tape the 50-day aRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s64.77 vs sma50 58.55, RS vs SPY +9.3%.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
7/10
Brent $101.21 settle XLE +10.6% vs its 50-day
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$58.55).
XBI  HEALTH CARE HOLD 🔥 24-issue streak
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
5.5/10 Conviction
$161.93
▲ +0.00%
Hold the biotech lot above the 50-day; RS vs SPY is still positive, but no 200d means no add.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo 200d history — HOLD, not a fresh BUY.Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s161.93 vs sma50 157.15, RS +7.1%.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
6/10
Still >50-day with +7.1% 20d RS vs SPY
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$157.15).
XLV  HEALTH CARE HOLD 🔥 24-issue streak
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
5.5/10 Conviction
$167.13
▼ -2.52%
Hold XLV while it stays above the 50-day; Wednesday’s health lag does not break the rule.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sHealth lag Wed (−2.5% analytics) but stillRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s167.13 vs sma50 163.38, RS +1.0%.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
6/10
Still +2.3% vs sma50 after the −2.5% sector print
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$163.38).
XLB  MATERIALS HOLD 🔥 24-issue streak
Materials Select Sector SPDR
6/10 Conviction
$51.94
▼ -0.95%
Hold materials while XLB is above the 50-day; copper’s record is the tape, not a sma200-less BUY.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sCopper record is the materials confirmatioRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s51.94 vs sma50 51.70, RS +3.5%.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
6/10
Copper near record (Caixin Sep 10) XLB still +0.46% vs sma50
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$51.70).
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
WHAT'S COMING UP
2026-09-10 US August PPI · risk_top5
2026-09-10 ECB rate decision, 13:15 CET · risk_top5
2026-09-10 Oracle / Adobe earnings, after close · risk_top5
2026-09-11 US August CPI · risk_top5
2026-09-16 FOMC decision · risk_top5
2026-09-21 MRK WINREVAIR PDUFA · us_equity_ideas
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech US
+1.79%
Euro-only
+21.09%
Penny Plays
-4.58%
Commodities
+0.00%
Crypto
+0.00%
Anti-Fragile
+0.00%
Trend Follow
-0.38%
Tech US
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$101790.91
Cash
$12483.46
P&L
$1790.91 (+1.79%)
Realized P&L
$-3181.65
TWR
+1.79%
Sharpe
0.40
Max DD
-2.39%
Sortino
1.03
Calmar
5.42
Ann. return
+12.97%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions88%
Cash12%
Today's Moves
ActionTickerQtyStatus
BuyMRK1.6923pending
BuyJEF4.5189pending
SellCSCO21.7039pending
SellDUOL1.826223pending
SellESTC4.272453pending
SellGAP18.277683pending
SellHD8.136800000000001pending
SellRDDT12.8816pending
Current Holdings
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
TSM ×20.932100000000002$9113.00+6.9%
XOM ×128.82189999999997$21156.42+7.4%
UNH ×8.4926$3338.10-7.8%
INTC ×14.0807$1495.93-75.8%
MSFT ×11.9125$5856.78+20.8%
SBUX ×11.6262$1163.09-6.2%
CBRE ×8.2914$1158.14-6.6%
AMZN ×5.952707$1502.46-6.6%
+41 more holdings
Track Record 18 On Track · 19 Lagging · 6 Stopped Out
PositionConviction ThenReturn SinceVerdict
ABNB (2026-09-01)6.5/10+3.4%On Track
ADBE (2026-09-07)6.5/10-4.4%Lagging
ADI (2026-08-21)8/10-1.4%Lagging
AMAT (2026-08-13)7.5/10+0.0%On Track
AMD (2026-08-31)6.5/10+10.9%On Track
AMZN (2026-08-29)7/10-6.6%Lagging
APH (2026-09-05)7.5/10-1.7%Lagging
AVGO (2026-08-22)7/10-1.1%Lagging
CRM (2026-09-08)7/10-3.1%Lagging
CRWD (2026-08-27)8/10-0.6%Lagging
CSCO (2026-08-12)7.5/10-9.6%Stopped Out
CVX (2026-09-08)7/10+7.5%On Track
DELL (2026-09-03)7.5/10+8.8%On Track
DUOL (2026-09-06)7.5/10-9.8%Stopped Out
ESTC (2026-08-29)8/10-13.3%Stopped Out
FIVE (2026-09-06)7.5/10-2.0%Lagging
FRO (2026-09-08)7/10+16.8%On Track
GAP (2026-08-30)7/10-9.0%Stopped Out
GLW (2026-09-09)6.8/10+0.0%On Track
HAL (2026-09-03)6.5/10-1.3%Lagging
HD (2026-08-19)8/10-8.2%Stopped Out
HOOD (2026-09-04)7/10-7.6%Lagging
INTU (2026-08-26)7/10+0.0%On Track
JPM (2026-09-08)6.5/10-1.1%Lagging
MRK (2026-08-20)7/10-3.1%Lagging
MRVL (2026-08-22)8/10+131.7%On Track
MU (2026-08-15)7.5/10+9.4%On Track
NAT (2026-08-31)7/10+7.4%On Track
NVDA (2026-08-28)7.5/10+3.5%On Track
OI (2026-08-24)7/10-7.7%Lagging
PSX (2026-09-07)7/10+2.2%On Track
QCOM (2026-09-09)7/10+0.0%On Track
RDDT (2026-08-18)7.5/10-15.6%Stopped Out
ROST (2026-08-23)8/10-3.6%Lagging
RTX (2026-09-05)7.5/10-1.6%Lagging
SHEL (2026-08-30)6.5/10+5.2%On Track
SLB (2026-09-01)7/10-5.1%Lagging
SNOW (2026-09-04)7.5/10-7.0%Lagging
TGT (2026-08-22)7/10-2.0%Lagging
V (2026-08-25)7/10-3.9%Lagging
VLO (2026-09-02)7/10+10.7%On Track
WMT (2026-08-20)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
XOM (2026-08-18)7.5/10+7.5%On Track
Euro-only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$121086.29
Cash
$20335.28
P&L
$21086.29 (+21.09%)
Realized P&L
$-42835.98
TWR
+21.09%
Sharpe
1.50
Max DD
-15.84%
Sortino
3.18
Calmar
17.28
Ann. return
+273.81%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions83%
Cash17%
Today's Moves
ActionTickerQtyStatus
BuyRIO.L4.5885pending
Current Holdings
⚠ Live EU quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.470171$23967.39—
TTE.PA ×363.74981399999996$26944.15—
UNA.AS ×48.4996$2832.95—
RR.L ×101.296$1460.08—
VIE.PA ×48.5044$1430.88—
GLE.PA ×17.2905$1402.26—
MNDI.L ×157.8766$1402.26—
NWG.L ×190.7298$1346.17—
+34 more holdings
Track Record 35 On Track · 1 Lagging
PositionConviction ThenReturn SinceVerdict
ABN.AS (2026-08-24)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
ADYEN.AS (2026-09-03)7/10+0.0%On Track
AIR.PA (2026-09-08)7/10+0.0%On Track
ALV.DE (2026-08-29)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
ASML.AS (2026-08-30)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
BAVA.CO (2026-08-23)7/10+0.0%On Track
DEME.BR (2026-08-27)7/10+0.0%On Track
DTE.DE (2026-09-04)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
ENI.MI (2026-09-02)7/10+0.0%On Track
ENR.DE (2026-09-01)7/10+0.0%On Track
EOAN.DE (2026-08-27)7/10+0.0%On Track
EUROB.AT (2026-09-07)7/10+0.0%On Track
EVD.DE (2026-08-22)7/10+0.0%On Track
FGR.PA (2026-08-28)6/10+0.0%On Track
FLS.CO (2026-08-21)6/10+0.0%On Track
INW.MI (2026-08-26)7/10+0.0%On Track
IVG.MI (2026-09-05)7.5/10+0.0%On Track
KGX.DE (2026-09-09)7/10+0.0%On Track
LR.PA (2026-08-31)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
MSLH.L (2026-08-11)6/10+0.0%On Track
MT.AS (2026-09-06)7/10+0.0%On Track
NDX1.DE (2026-09-08)6.8/10+0.0%On Track
NSIS-B.CO (2026-08-21)7/10+0.0%On Track
PUB.PA (2026-09-04)7/10+0.0%On Track
REP.MC (2026-09-02)7/10+0.0%On Track
RWE.DE (2026-09-03)7/10+0.0%On Track
SAN.MC (2026-09-08)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
SAP.DE (2026-08-30)7/10+0.0%On Track
SHEL.L (2026-08-22)6/10+1.2%On Track
SHL.DE (2026-08-24)7/10+0.0%On Track
SIE.DE (2026-08-29)7/10+0.0%On Track
SU.PA (2026-08-31)7/10+0.0%On Track
TEF.MC (2026-09-07)7/10+0.0%On Track
TKA.DE (2026-09-06)7.5/10+0.0%On Track
TTE.PA (2026-09-01)7/10-1.9%Lagging
VOD.L (2026-09-05)7/10+0.0%On Track
Penny Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
TWR
-4.58%
Sharpe
-2.86
Max DD
-4.58%
Sortino
-2.84
Calmar
-6.03
Ann. return
-27.62%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions15%
Cash85%
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live penny quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
GOSS ×18577.8497$3755.55—
PYPD ×1564.2640000000001$6940.50—
STXS ×2738.0584$3557.21—
Track Record 4 On Track
PositionConviction ThenReturn SinceVerdict
BFRI (2026-09-09)5/10+0.0%On Track
INO (2026-08-24)4.5/10+0.0%On Track
OTLK (2026-09-09)4/10+0.0%On Track
PYPD (2026-08-19)6.5/10+6.1%On Track
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$28966.37
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
-15.87
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
+0.00%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions71%
Cash29%
Today's Moves
ActionTickerQtyStatus
HoldUSO202.47532300000003—
HoldCPER135.999—
Current Holdings
⚠ Live commodity-ETF quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
USO ×202.47532300000003$26216.50—
GLD ×30.1042$11738.20—
CPER ×135.999$5372.73—
SLV ×84.483012$4999.97—
PPLT ×66.6295$1111.38—
BNO ×35.136114$1850.57—
URA ×23.158793$1066.93—
UGA ×26.775539$3377.87—
+11 more holdings
Track Record 15 On Track · 4 Lagging
PositionConviction ThenReturn SinceVerdict
BNO (2026-09-07)7/10+0.0%On Track
CANE (2026-09-06)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
COPX (2026-09-08)7/10+0.0%On Track
CORN (2026-08-31)7/10+1.1%On Track
CPER (2026-09-09)7/10+0.0%On Track
GDX (2026-09-04)7/10+0.0%On Track
GLD (2026-08-30)5/10-0.4%Lagging
LIT (2026-08-24)6.5/10-3.7%Lagging
PALL (2026-08-30)4/10+2.1%On Track
PPLT (2026-09-05)7/10+0.0%On Track
SIL (2026-09-04)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
SLV (2026-09-01)6.5/10+2.5%On Track
SLX (2026-09-07)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
SOYB (2026-08-30)6.5/10+2.1%On Track
UGA (2026-09-06)7/10+0.0%On Track
UNG (2026-09-03)6.5/10-0.9%Lagging
URA (2026-09-05)7/10+0.0%On Track
USO (2026-09-09)6.3/10+0.0%On Track
WEAT (2026-08-30)7.5/10-3.1%Lagging
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$32370.73
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
-15.87
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
+0.00%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions68%
Cash32%
Today's Moves
ActionTickerQtyStatus
BuyBTC-USD0.0128dispatched
Current Holdings
⚠ Live crypto quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5509599999999999$35015.45—
ETH-USD ×14.905437$28949.67—
SOL-USD ×26.813729000000002$2795.91—
XRP-USD ×628.433555$868.24—
Track Record 3 On Track · 3 Lagging
PositionConviction ThenReturn SinceVerdict
BTC (2026-08-11)6/10+0.0%On Track
BTC-USD (2026-09-09)7/10-1.2%Lagging
ETH (2026-08-11)5/10+0.0%On Track
ETH-USD (2026-09-09)5.8/10-1.1%Lagging
SOL-USD (2026-08-30)6.5/10-1.4%Lagging
XRP-USD (2026-08-29)6/10+0.7%On Track
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$35000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
-15.87
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
+0.00%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions65%
Cash35%
Today's Moves
ActionTickerQtyStatus
HoldGLD61.6538—
Current Holdings
⚠ Live Anti-Fragile quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
GLD ×61.6538$25000.00—
IEF ×107.7122$10000.00—
DBC ×654.4503$20000.00—
SPLV ×132.0306$10000.00—
Trend Follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$75717.93
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
TWR
-0.38%
Sharpe
-10.79
Max DD
-0.38%
Sortino
-8.98
Calmar
-6.82
Ann. return
-2.60%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions24%
Cash76%
Today's Moves
ActionTickerQtyStatus
SellSMH5.0341—
HoldXLE87.857185—
Current Holdings
⚠ Live Trend Follow quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
XLE ×87.857185$5539.52—
SMH ×5.0341$2990.61—
XLV ×30.272433999999997$5207.77—
XBI ×31.999615$5207.77—
XLB ×93.528615$4954.78—
Track Record 5 On Track · 5 Lagging
PositionConviction ThenReturn SinceVerdict
ITA (2026-08-21)4/10-5.8%Lagging
QQQ (2026-09-07)3/10+0.0%On Track
SMH (2026-09-09)4.5/10+0.0%On Track
XBI (2026-08-23)8/10-1.4%Lagging
XLB (2026-08-23)8/10-3.1%Lagging
XLE (2026-08-23)8/10+2.6%On Track
XLF (2026-09-08)6/10+0.0%On Track
XLK (2026-09-08)6/10+0.0%On Track
XLRE (2026-08-20)6.5/10-2.6%Lagging
XLV (2026-08-23)8/10-4.3%Lagging
30-day hit rate across all portfolios: +67.80%
This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research before investing.
Morning Alpha • Generated Thu, 10 Sep 2026 07:14:32 GMT • info@gmc-works.com