market_pulse — SPX analytics stamps composition close 7673.52 vs live Wed FMP 7636.36 (−2.22% from ATH 7810). FRED tiles are single-observation (no delta_bp). DTWEXBGS is weekly 2026-08-28. CL=F hist 94.32 vs web WTI settle $96.05 — published web. VIX9D/VIX3M/MOVE lack tradeDate.
yesterday_retrospective — GET /movers?index=SPX returned a stale/broken table (MRNA −100%) — movers[] omitted. Asia/EU index /price spots stale; Wed session moves from Reuters/Mainichi/FT used for Nikkei/HSI/DAX/FTSE.
us_equity_ideas — 13F/insider/sentiment empty for MRK/JEF — flow factors null. JEF SimFin TTM NI $45m is unusable (fundamentals null). Screener PE missing on both.
eu_equity_ideas — eu_fundamentals_gap — RIO.L aggregator fundamentals empty. Spot is Stooq JS; published last hist/screener 7641p (Sep 4). Alliance News Sydney −3.3% Thu noted, not a second LSE print.
penny_plays — screener unavailable or empty for category=penny — fell back to web search; penny universe may not be seeded yet. No new sub-$5 name cleared ≥6/10; did not recycle BFRI/OTLK (13-run streak, no new catalyst).
forex_rebalancing — squawk-alert feed unavailable — fell back to central-bank web search for same-day FX events. FX pair spots Stooq JS; hist stale through 2026-08-29. EURUSD 1.1640 from Yahoo live. USDJPY 153.60 from FT.com tape, not a fresh aggregator pair print.
commodities_outlook — USO/CPER /price spots Stooq JS; used history (USO 146.03 / CPER 40.57 on Sep 8). CL=F 94.32 vs web WTI $96.05. COT/positioning empty. Book already loaded — HOLD, no new BUY.
crypto_landscape — Spot ETF flow print is still week-ended-Sep-4 / three-week streak, not a Wed tape. No L2Beat/stablecoin supply number this run.
trend_follow — Universe still <200 closes — sma200 null, 200-day test fails, zero BUY. Last ETF prints Sep 8. SMH 573.73 ≤ sma50 578.39 — EXIT remains live.
risk_cover_playbook — Put/call omitted (no options-flow endpoint). MOVE/VIX9D/VIX3M spots have no tradeDate. Stock-bond 20d corr uses hist through Sep 8.
portfolio_reality_check — SMH price rejected by Portfolio Manager's plausibility guard — see trade history
portfolio_reality_check — Euro-only/Penny Plays/Commodities/Crypto/Anti-Fragile/Trend Follow books all_prices_estimated. INTC −76% is a cost-basis outlier — ignored for stop-loss. Only published post-reset 30d picks at ≤ −8% trigger a stop.
GeneralThe Bottom Line 1 minOil jumped after Hormuz tanker attacks and a $6B Treasury buyback disappointed; PPI and the ECB decision land today with FOMC hike odds near 60%.
THE BOTTOM LINE
RISK-ON=
Oil jumped after Hormuz tanker attacks and a $6B Treasury buyback disappointed; PPI and the ECB decision land today with FOMC hike odds near 60%.
High-yield OAS2.67 bp
150 bp800 bp
Under 350 bp scores +1. Wider spreads score 0, then −1, then −2.
September FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥3.75–4.00%)
Probability: Medium • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $101790.91
Blended P&L: +1.79% • 30d Hit Rate: +67.80%
1 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 80 of 118 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 11.6%, average loss -4.3%.
SPX 7636.36 −0.48% and VIX 16.46 sit −2.22% from the ATH while 10s are 4.80–4.84% and SPY−RSP d1 is +0.46 — a tightening, concentrated tape into today’s PPI.
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AIBrent $101 and copper near a record are a growth-plus-inflation tape; HY OAS 2.67 has not blown and SPX is only −2.2% from the ATH. Own gold + DBC + a 10% SPLV stub; keep TLT and SH at 0 until a trigger fires.
• Trim high-beta discretionary vs the energy/copper sleeve already on the commodities book
• Add the SH 10% crash overlay only if VIX >25 and a second trigger fires
• Do not sell TLT that is already at 0 — inflationary_boom still wants duration at zero
AI0/4 hard triggers fired; 2 of 12 internals (stock-bond +0.36, oil/copper boom) are watch. Gave quadrant stays inflationary_boom: oil + copper up, HY 2.67 asleep, TLT weight 0. Same book as yesterday — HOLD the four live sleeves.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 1 minWednesday was the third down day: SPX 7636.36 −0.48% and the Dow −0.77% as Brent settled $101.21 and 10s popped to ~4.83% after Bessent’s $6B buyback disappointed.
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Wednesday was the third down day: SPX 7636.36 −0.48% and the Dow −0.77% as Brent settled $101.21 and 10s popped to ~4.83% after Bessent’s $6B buyback disappointed.
Bridge to Today
Today’s PPI (12:30 GMT) and the 13:15 CET ECB decision are the two prints that decide whether Wednesday’s oil-and-yield backup sticks into Friday CPI and the Sep 16–17 FOMC.
Into WINREVAIR’s Sep 21 PDUFA, the Leerink $161 PT (from $127) is the 24h re-rate: $147.53 already prices the cost-cut tape, not the label print.
Leerink PT $161ROE 34.7%PDUFA Sep 21RSI 74
Fundamentals
8/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
6/10
Leerink Partners Outperform, PT $161 from $127 on 2026-09-09WINREVAIR sBLA PDUFA 2026-09-21 (HYPERION label update)54-job Rahway WARN is the $3B cost-cut continuation, not a thesis break
Target
$161.00
Invalidation: PDUFA miss/delay or weekly close back below $140.
TradingView's price for MRK. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 1 minRIO.L BUY
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
RIO.LNEW
Rio Tinto plc
7
+0.39%
RIO.LCOMMODITYBUYNEW
Rio Tinto plc • Materials
7/10Conviction
$7641.00
▲ +0.39%
Over the next sessions, Winu consent plus record copper is the why-now: 7641p is the growth-metal name vs another energy add.
Winu consentCu ~$14.8k/tPrice last 7641p Sep 4
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
6/10
Project agreement with Nyangumarta for Winu Cu-Au mine (Alliance News 2026-09-10)LME copper near record ~$14,780/t on AI demand and US tariff stockpiles
Invalidation: Winu FID cancelled or LME copper weekly close below $13,000/t.
TradingView's price for RIO.L. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 4 minZero new BUY: still no 200-session history, so the 200-day test fails. SMH 573.73 remains ≤ sma50 578.39 — EXIT the lot. Energy/biotech/health/materials stay HOLD.
TREND FOLLOW
Zero new BUY: still no 200-session history, so the 200-day test fails. SMH 573.73 remains ≤ sma50 578.39 — EXIT the lot. Energy/biotech/health/materials stay HOLD.
7 of 18 universe names close above their 50-day — same narrow tape as yesterday, not a fresh BUY list.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
5
+0.00%
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR
7
+1.11%
XBI
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
5.5
+0.00%
XLV
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
5.5
-2.52%
XLB
Materials Select Sector SPDR
6
-0.95%
SMHINFORMATION TECHNOLOGYEXIT🔥 25-issue streak
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
5/10Conviction
$573.73
▲ +0.00%
Exit the SMH lot: the 50-day rule is live at 573.73 ≤ 578.39; oil-sensitive semis do not get a discretionary override.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sSemi tape still oil-sensitive; rule, not aRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s573.73 ≤ sma50 578.39 — hard EXIT.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
5/10
Close ≤ sma50 is the mandate exitOil $100 still the tape tax on high-beta tech
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$578.39) would only stop a re-entry, not this EXIT.
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
SMH · 20d illustrative range
XLEENERGYHOLD🔥 25-issue streak
Energy Select Sector SPDR
7/10Conviction
$64.77
▲ +1.11%
Hold energy beta while XLE stays above its 50-day; Brent $100 is confirmation, not a new BUY without sma200.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sBrent $100 is the energy tape the 50-day aRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s64.77 vs sma50 58.55, RS vs SPY +9.3%.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
7/10
Brent $101.21 settleXLE +10.6% vs its 50-day
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$58.55).
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
Hold the biotech lot above the 50-day; RS vs SPY is still positive, but no 200d means no add.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo 200d history — HOLD, not a fresh BUY.Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s161.93 vs sma50 157.15, RS +7.1%.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
6/10
Still >50-day with +7.1% 20d RS vs SPY
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$157.15).
TradingView's price for XBI. It is not the last print in this letter.
XBI · 20d illustrative range
XLVHEALTH CAREHOLD🔥 24-issue streak
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
5.5/10Conviction
$167.13
▼ -2.52%
Hold XLV while it stays above the 50-day; Wednesday’s health lag does not break the rule.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sHealth lag Wed (−2.5% analytics) but stillRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s167.13 vs sma50 163.38, RS +1.0%.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
6/10
Still +2.3% vs sma50 after the −2.5% sector print
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$163.38).
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLBMATERIALSHOLD🔥 24-issue streak
Materials Select Sector SPDR
6/10Conviction
$51.94
▼ -0.95%
Hold materials while XLB is above the 50-day; copper’s record is the tape, not a sma200-less BUY.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sCopper record is the materials confirmatioRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s51.94 vs sma50 51.70, RS +3.5%.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
6/10
Copper near record (Caixin Sep 10)XLB still +0.46% vs sma50
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$51.70).
TradingView's price for XLB. It is not the last print in this letter.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minBlock filed for an OCC trust bank to custody BTC and stablecoins; US spot BTC ETFs still own the three-week +$3.8B bid. ETH remains the second sleeve, not a third-alt chase.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Block filed for an OCC trust bank to custody BTC and stablecoins; US spot BTC ETFs still own the three-week +$3.8B bid. ETH remains the second sleeve, not a third-alt chase.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
7
-1.22%
ETH-USD
Ethereum
5.8
-1.08%
BTC-USDBUY🔥 8-issue streak
Bitcoin
7/10Conviction
$78195.00
▼ -1.22%
Keep BTC as the core sleeve into FOMC: the three-week ETF bid plus Block’s OCC filing still support BUY; size is an add, not a new name.
On-chain/hash not pulled — fundamentals nuBTC ETFs +$986.9M week to Sep 4; $3.8B in Block OCC trust-bank filing (Sep 8–9) + FOInstitutional custody + ETF bid still the CoinGecko 78195 −1.22% vs 79157; 10d range
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
8/10
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
6/10
Spot BTC ETFs +$986.9M week / +$3.8B three weeks (print through Sep 4)Block OCC trust-bank filing Sep 8–9FOMC Sep 16 as the next vol event
Invalidation: Weekly close back below 72000 with a week of net ETF outflows.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Hold the existing ETH lot as sleeve two: +$218M weekly ETF inflows are real but a distant #2, and there is no dated network catalyst today.
On-chain/L2 TVL not pulled this run — fundETH ETFs +$218.4M same week; still a distaNo fresh network upgrade today — FOMC is tSecond sleeve, not a chase; keep vs addingCoinGecko 2472.88 −1.08% vs 2499.85; range
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
6/10
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
US spot ETH ETFs +$218.4M in the same week-ended-Sep-4 printFOMC Sep 16 vol — not an ETH-specific upgrade
Invalidation: Weekly close back below 2200 with ETH ETFs flipping to net outflows.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 2 minBrent’s $101.21 settle is the inflation sleeve; copper still near a record on AI/tariff stockpiling — HOLD both, the paper book is already loaded.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Brent’s $101.21 settle is the inflation sleeve; copper still near a record on AI/tariff stockpiling — HOLD both, the paper book is already loaded.
Oil + copper up together with real 10y at 2.43% is an inflationary-boom mix, not a bust: if PPI/CPI today–Friday do not fade the oil shock, expect energy and…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
USO
WTI crude (USO)
7.2
+2.87%
CPER
Copper (CPER)
7
+1.55%
WTI crude (USO)ENERGYHOLD🔥 10-issue streak
USO
7.2/10Conviction
$146.03
▲ +2.87%
Into PPI/CPI/FOMC, treat $100 Brent as the live inflation sleeve: HOLD the existing USO lot rather than chase a 9-day repeat add.
Physical dated-Brent >$100 since Sep 3; EINo COT/positioning feed — sentiment_flow nWed Brent $101.21 settle; Iran/US tanker aOil-as-inflation-shock into PPI/CPI/FOMC, Hist 146.03 Sep 8 (+2.87% vs Sep 4); Wed W
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
7/10
Brent settled $101.21 Wed; WTI $96.05 (web) after Hormuz tanker attacksEIA raised 2026–27 oil-price forecasts as Middle East supply stays disruptedPPI 2026-09-10 and FOMC 2026-09-16 are the next oil-to-rates tests
Invalidation: Brent sustains a close back below $90 with Hormuz flows normalizing.
TradingView's price for USO. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next sessions stay with copper as the growth metal: record LME + US tariff stockpiles is a different tape than oil, so HOLD not a third energy add.
LME copper ~$14,680–14,780/t; tight mine +No COT/positioning feed — sentiment_flow nTariff-stockpile + AI infra; Caixin recordGrowth metal still bid while oil is the inHist 40.57 Sep 8; HG=F 6.79 Sep 9 — last E
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
6/10
LME copper near $14,680–14,780/t, ~50% above Sep-2025 (Caixin Sep 10)US buyers stockpiling ahead of a still-unpublished Commerce tariff assessmentWinu/Rio consent the same morning is the mine-side confirmation
Invalidation: LME copper loses $13,000/t on a weekly close with AI-capex cuts.
TradingView's price for CPER. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 9 min30d hit rate 68%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech US
+1.79%
Named holdings. 117 smaller positions (29.65%) are off this picture.
Tech US
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$101790.91
Cash
$12483.46
P&L
$1790.91 (+1.79%)
Realized P&L
$-3181.65
TWR
+1.79%
Sharpe
0.40
Max DD
-2.39%
Sortino
1.03
Calmar
5.42
Ann. return
+12.97%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions88%
Cash12%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
MRK
1.69
pending
Buy
JEF
4.52
pending
Sell
CSCO
21.7
pending
Sell
DUOL
1.83
pending
Sell
ESTC
4.27
pending
Sell
GAP
18.28
pending
Sell
HD
8.14
pending
Sell
RDDT
12.88
pending
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$9113.00
+6.9%
XOM ×129
$21156.42
+7.4%
UNH ×8.49
$3338.10
-7.8%
INTC ×14.08
$1495.93
-75.8%
MSFT ×11.91
$5856.78
+20.8%
SBUX ×11.63
$1163.09
-6.2%
CBRE ×8.29
$1158.14
-6.6%
AMZN ×5.95
$1502.46
-6.6%
+41 more holdings
Track Record
18 On Track · 19 Lagging · 6 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
ABNB (2026-09-01)
6.5/10
+3.4%
On Track
ADBE (2026-09-07)
6.5/10
-4.4%
Lagging
ADI (2026-08-21)
8/10
-1.4%
Lagging
AMAT (2026-08-13)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
AMD (2026-08-31)
6.5/10
+10.9%
On Track
AMZN (2026-08-29)
7/10
-6.6%
Lagging
APH (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
-1.7%
Lagging
AVGO (2026-08-22)
7/10
-1.1%
Lagging
CRM (2026-09-08)
7/10
-3.1%
Lagging
CRWD (2026-08-27)
8/10
-0.6%
Lagging
CSCO (2026-08-12)
7.5/10
-9.6%
Stopped Out
CVX (2026-09-08)
7/10
+7.5%
On Track
DELL (2026-09-03)
7.5/10
+8.8%
On Track
DUOL (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
-9.8%
Stopped Out
ESTC (2026-08-29)
8/10
-13.3%
Stopped Out
FIVE (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
-2.0%
Lagging
FRO (2026-09-08)
7/10
+16.8%
On Track
GAP (2026-08-30)
7/10
-9.0%
Stopped Out
GLW (2026-09-09)
6.8/10
+0.0%
On Track
HAL (2026-09-03)
6.5/10
-1.3%
Lagging
HD (2026-08-19)
8/10
-8.2%
Stopped Out
HOOD (2026-09-04)
7/10
-7.6%
Lagging
INTU (2026-08-26)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
JPM (2026-09-08)
6.5/10
-1.1%
Lagging
MRK (2026-08-20)
7/10
-3.1%
Lagging
MRVL (2026-08-22)
8/10
+131.7%
On Track
MU (2026-08-15)
7.5/10
+9.4%
On Track
NAT (2026-08-31)
7/10
+7.4%
On Track
NVDA (2026-08-28)
7.5/10
+3.5%
On Track
OI (2026-08-24)
7/10
-7.7%
Lagging
PSX (2026-09-07)
7/10
+2.2%
On Track
QCOM (2026-09-09)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
RDDT (2026-08-18)
7.5/10
-15.6%
Stopped Out
ROST (2026-08-23)
8/10
-3.6%
Lagging
RTX (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
-1.6%
Lagging
SHEL (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
+5.2%
On Track
SLB (2026-09-01)
7/10
-5.1%
Lagging
SNOW (2026-09-04)
7.5/10
-7.0%
Lagging
TGT (2026-08-22)
7/10
-2.0%
Lagging
V (2026-08-25)
7/10
-3.9%
Lagging
VLO (2026-09-02)
7/10
+10.7%
On Track
WMT (2026-08-20)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
XOM (2026-08-18)
7.5/10
+7.5%
On Track
Euro-only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$121086.29
Cash
$20335.28
P&L
$21086.29 (+21.09%)
Realized P&L
$-42835.98
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
RIO.L
4.59
pending
Current Holdings
⚠ Live EU quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702
$23967.39
—
TTE.PA ×364
$26944.15
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
—
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
—
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
—
GLE.PA ×17.29
$1402.26
—
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
—
NWG.L ×191
$1346.17
—
+34 more holdings
Track Record
35 On Track · 1 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
ABN.AS (2026-08-24)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ADYEN.AS (2026-09-03)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
AIR.PA (2026-09-08)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
ALV.DE (2026-08-29)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ASML.AS (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
BAVA.CO (2026-08-23)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
DEME.BR (2026-08-27)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
DTE.DE (2026-09-04)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ENI.MI (2026-09-02)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
ENR.DE (2026-09-01)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
EOAN.DE (2026-08-27)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
EUROB.AT (2026-09-07)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
EVD.DE (2026-08-22)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
FGR.PA (2026-08-28)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
FLS.CO (2026-08-21)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
INW.MI (2026-08-26)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
IVG.MI (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
KGX.DE (2026-09-09)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
LR.PA (2026-08-31)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
MSLH.L (2026-08-11)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
MT.AS (2026-09-06)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
NDX1.DE (2026-09-08)
6.8/10
+0.0%
On Track
NSIS-B.CO (2026-08-21)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
PUB.PA (2026-09-04)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
REP.MC (2026-09-02)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
RWE.DE (2026-09-03)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SAN.MC (2026-09-08)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
SAP.DE (2026-08-30)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SHEL.L (2026-08-22)
6/10
+1.2%
On Track
SHL.DE (2026-08-24)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SIE.DE (2026-08-29)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SU.PA (2026-08-31)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
TEF.MC (2026-09-07)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
TKA.DE (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
TTE.PA (2026-09-01)
7/10
-1.9%
Lagging
VOD.L (2026-09-05)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
Penny Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live penny quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578
$3755.55
—
PYPD ×1564
$6940.50
—
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
—
Track Record
4 On Track
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BFRI (2026-09-09)
5/10
+0.0%
On Track
INO (2026-08-24)
4.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
OTLK (2026-09-09)
4/10
+0.0%
On Track
PYPD (2026-08-19)
6.5/10
+6.1%
On Track
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$28966.37
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Hold
USO
202
—
Hold
CPER
136
—
Current Holdings
⚠ Live commodity-ETF quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×202
$26216.50
—
GLD ×30.1
$11738.20
—
CPER ×136
$5372.73
—
SLV ×84.48
$4999.97
—
PPLT ×66.63
$1111.38
—
BNO ×35.14
$1850.57
—
URA ×23.16
$1066.93
—
UGA ×26.78
$3377.87
—
+11 more holdings
Track Record
15 On Track · 4 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BNO (2026-09-07)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
CANE (2026-09-06)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
COPX (2026-09-08)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
CORN (2026-08-31)
7/10
+1.1%
On Track
CPER (2026-09-09)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
GDX (2026-09-04)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
GLD (2026-08-30)
5/10
-0.4%
Lagging
LIT (2026-08-24)
6.5/10
-3.7%
Lagging
PALL (2026-08-30)
4/10
+2.1%
On Track
PPLT (2026-09-05)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SIL (2026-09-04)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
SLV (2026-09-01)
6.5/10
+2.5%
On Track
SLX (2026-09-07)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
SOYB (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
+2.1%
On Track
UGA (2026-09-06)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
UNG (2026-09-03)
6.5/10
-0.9%
Lagging
URA (2026-09-05)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
USO (2026-09-09)
6.3/10
+0.0%
On Track
WEAT (2026-08-30)
7.5/10
-3.1%
Lagging
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$32370.73
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
BTC-USD
0.0128
dispatched
Current Holdings
⚠ Live crypto quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5510
$35015.45
—
ETH-USD ×14.91
$28949.67
—
SOL-USD ×26.81
$2795.91
—
XRP-USD ×628
$868.24
—
Track Record
3 On Track · 3 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BTC (2026-08-11)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
BTC-USD (2026-09-09)
7/10
-1.2%
Lagging
ETH (2026-08-11)
5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ETH-USD (2026-09-09)
5.8/10
-1.1%
Lagging
SOL-USD (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
-1.4%
Lagging
XRP-USD (2026-08-29)
6/10
+0.7%
On Track
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$35000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Hold
GLD
61.65
—
Current Holdings
⚠ Live Anti-Fragile quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65
$25000.00
—
IEF ×108
$10000.00
—
DBC ×654
$20000.00
—
SPLV ×132
$10000.00
—
Trend Follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$75717.93
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Sell
SMH
5.03
—
Hold
XLE
87.86
—
Current Holdings
⚠ Live Trend Follow quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86
$5539.52
—
SMH ×5.03
$2990.61
—
XLV ×30.27
$5207.77
—
XBI ×32
$5207.77
—
XLB ×93.53
$4954.78
—
Track Record
5 On Track · 5 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
ITA (2026-08-21)
4/10
-5.8%
Lagging
QQQ (2026-09-07)
3/10
+0.0%
On Track
SMH (2026-09-09)
4.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
XBI (2026-08-23)
8/10
-1.4%
Lagging
XLB (2026-08-23)
8/10
-3.1%
Lagging
XLE (2026-08-23)
8/10
+2.6%
On Track
XLF (2026-09-08)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
XLK (2026-09-08)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
XLRE (2026-08-20)
6.5/10
-2.6%
Lagging
XLV (2026-08-23)
8/10
-4.3%
Lagging
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +67.80%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.