market_pulse — SPX analytics stamps composition close 7591.7 (Thu) vs live Fri FMP 7656.98 (−1.96% from ATH 7810). FRED tiles are single-observation (no delta_bp); VIXCLS 17.84 is Thu. DTWEXBGS is weekly 2026-08-28. CL=F yahoo 100.05 matches Newsquawk WTI settle.
yesterday_retrospective — GET /movers?index=SPX still broken (MRNA −100%, DELL prev 456 vs live 506.62) — movers[] omitted. Sector SPDR /price hist ends Sep 8; Friday XLK/XLE/XLI from Benzinga/Traders Agency. Asia/EU index hist gaps filled with Yonhap/The Edge/Stooq/Kiplinger.
us_equity_ideas — 13F/congress empty for DELL; Silver Lake Form 4 sells scored sentiment_flow. Paid /price circuit_open — used history + web Fri close 567.29.
eu_equity_ideas — eu_fundamentals_gap — BP.L aggregator fundamentals empty; /news empty. Last hist 565.10p on Sep 10 (no Sep 11 LSE print).
penny_plays — screener unavailable or empty for category=penny — fell back to web search; penny universe may not be seeded yet. No name cleared ≥6/10. Did not recycle BFRI/OTLK or PYPD.
forex_rebalancing — squawk-alert feed unavailable — fell back to central-bank web search for same-day FX events. FX pair hist stale through 2026-08-29. EURUSD 1.1602 from Yahoo live.
commodities_outlook — BNO/CPER /price hist still ends Sep 10; Friday WTI 100.05 / Brent 104.61 from Newsquawk. COT/positioning empty. Book already loaded — HOLD/REDUCE/WATCH, no new BUY.
crypto_landscape — Spot ETF flow is a Sep 11 SoSoValue print (−$13.29M BTC / +$216M ETH). No L2Beat/stablecoin supply number this run.
trend_follow — Universe still <200 closes — sma200 null, 200-day test fails, zero BUY. XLE/XLV/XLB last ETF prints mostly Sep 8. SMH 568.53 ≤ sma50 577.32 and XBI 156.20 ≤ sma50 157.33 — EXIT remains live.
risk_cover_playbook — Put/call omitted (no options-flow endpoint). MOVE/VIX9D/VIX3M spots have no fresh Friday tradeDate. Stock-bond 20d corr uses aligned hist through Sep 8.
portfolio_reality_check — Euro-only/Penny Plays/Commodities/Crypto/Anti-Fragile/Trend Follow books all_prices_estimated. INTC −76% is a cost-basis outlier — ignored for stop-loss. Only published post-reset 30d picks at ≤ −8% trigger a stop.
portfolio_reality_check — BP.L first ticket used GBP against an EUR-cash Euro book (HTTP 400). Retried in EUR at 2% of cash (~62.04 shares, 565.10p ≈ €6.55) and accepted PENDING. CSCO recovered to -7.41% so no new stop.
September FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥3.75–4.00%)
Probability: High • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $101998.36
Blended P&L: +2.00% • 30d Hit Rate: +69.90%
1 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 86 of 123 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 11.1%, average loss -4.5%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 3 minLive SPX 7657 +0.86% and VIX 15.84 vs FRED 10y 4.95 (Thu), DFF 3.63, weekly USD 118.75 (Aug 28), HY 2.70 — equities bid on oil’s drop, yields still tight.
MARKET PULSE
SPX 7657 +0.86% sits −1.96% from the ATH while VIX 15.84 and 10s 4.97% leave a mixed tape into Wednesday’s FOMC — analytics breadth is still a Thursday 67% above SMA200.
Mixed tape Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
AILive SPX 7657 +0.86% and VIX 15.84 vs FRED 10y 4.95 (Thu), DFF 3.63, weekly USD 118.75 (Aug 28), HY 2.70 — equities bid on oil’s drop, yields still tight.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,656.98
yday 7,591.70
▲ +0.86%
NASDAQ Data
26,333.04
yday 26,081.72
▲ +0.96%
Dow Jones Data
52,573.29
yday 52,064.10
▲ +0.98%
Russell 2K Data
2,903.94
yday 2,890.95
▲ +0.45%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
4,366.20
yday 4,392.10
▼ -0.59%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data
100.05
yday 103.45
▼ -3.29%
Agriculture
Corn (CORN) Data
19.92
▼ -0.45%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
77,226.00
yday 77,245.00
▼ -0.03%
Ethereum Data
2,519.05
yday 2,465.95
▲ +2.15%
Rates
10Y Yield Data
4.98
yday 4.94
▲ +0.63%
UST 10y Data
4.95
yday 4.80
—
UST 30y Data
5.37
yday 5.25
—
Eff. fed funds Data
3.63
yday 3.63
—
Credit
HY OAS Data
2.70
yday 2.67
—
IG OAS Data
0.80 pct
yday 0.81 pct
calm
HY-IG spread differential Data
1.90 pp
yday 1.86 pp
calm
Volatility
VIX Data
15.84
yday 17.84
▼ -11.21%
VIX (FRED Thu) Data
17.84
—
VIX9D/VIX Data
1.12 ratio
watch
VIX/VIX3M term structure Data
0.80 ratio
calm
MOVE index Data
82.09 index
yday 82.09 index points
watch
Dollar & FX
EUR/USD Data
1.16
yday 1.16
▼ -0.08%
USD broad Data
118.75
yday 118.75
—
wk
Breadth
SPY−RSP 5d Data
+1.46pp
yday +1.94pp
—
SPY−RSP 21d Data
+0.89pp
yday +0.78pp
—
% from 52w Data
-2.80%
yday -2.22%
—
Stock-bond 20d correlation (SPY vs TLT) Data
0.46 ratio
yday 0.46 ratio
watch
% of S&P 500 above SMA200 Data
67.07 pct
calm
Liquidity
SOFR–DFF spread Data
-0.01 pp
calm
Initial claims (ICSA) Data
206,000.00 claims
calm
Cross-asset
Gold/Copper ratio (GLD/CPER) Data
10.15 ratio
yday 10.15 ratio
watch
Other
UST 3y Data
4.63
yday 4.44
—
Cover checks
VIX Data
15.84 / 25.00
yday 17.84
Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread Data
0.33 / -0.20
yday 0.40 / -0.20
Not Triggered
HY OAS Data
2.70 / 5.00
yday 2.67
Not Triggered
SPX drawdown from ATH Data
-1.96 / -10.00
yday -2.80 / -10.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AIFriday’s oil dip to $100.05 does not flip the week: Brent is still ~$105 and CPI held 3.4% y/y. Copper’s fade is a tariff-delay headline, HY OAS 2.70 has not blown, and SPX is only −1.96% from the ATH. Own gold + DBC + a 10% SPLV stub; keep TLT and SH at 0 until a trigger fires.
• Trim high-beta software vs the energy sleeve already on the commodities book
• Add the SH 10% crash overlay only if VIX >25 and a second trigger fires
• Do not buy TLT — inflationary_boom still wants long duration at zero
AI0/4 hard triggers fired; ~3 of 12 internals (stock-bond +0.46, gold/copper 10.15, VIX9D/VIX stale ~0.99) are watch. Gave stays inflationary_boom: CPI 3.4% and oil still $100 on the week, copper’s drop is a tariff headline, HY 2.70 asleep. Same book — HOLD the four live sleeves.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 2 minFriday snapped the four-day slide: SPX 7656.98 +0.86% after August CPI printed +0.4% m/m / +3.4% y/y and WTI settled $100.05, even as hike odds jumped to ~86%.
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Friday snapped the four-day slide: SPX 7656.98 +0.86% after August CPI printed +0.4% m/m / +3.4% y/y and WTI settled $100.05, even as hike odds jumped to ~86%.
How Yesterday Unfolded
Asia Asia sold first on the overnight yield/oil hangover: Nikkei 64011.34 −1.93%, Hang Seng 24805.63 −0.60%, Shanghai 3888.11 −1.18%, KOSPI 6909.91 −1.76%.
Oil’s first down day after the $100 squeeze flipped the four-day inflation-tax trade back into duration-sensitive cyclicals.
Long-duration fear / cash → Equities · VIX 15.84 from 17.84; SPX +0.86% after four down days; 10s still 4.97%.
CPI matched the headline, so the oil drop mattered more than the 86% hike-odds jump for one session.
Key Drivers
August CPI +0.4% m/m, +3.4% y/y; core +0.3% / +2.4% — Gasoline +3.9% m/m and +27.4% y/y did the headline work; core y/y eased to 2.4% but the monthly core was a tenth hot.
WTI settles $100.05, Brent $104.61 — Crude’s first real down day of the week on Gulf-Iran shipping-talk headlines; both contracts still ~+8% on the week.
FedWatch hike odds ~86% for Sep 15–16 — CME odds jumped from ~71% Thu to ~86% Fri; stocks rallied anyway because oil, not the print, was the equity catalyst.
Bridge to Today
Wednesday’s FOMC (Sep 16) is the next tape-breaker — Friday’s oil-relief bid dies if Hormuz talks fail or Warsh delivers more than the 25 bp already priced.
GeneralConcept of the Day 1 minWhat the FOMC dot plot actually shows
CONCEPT OF THE DAY
What the FOMC dot plot actually shows
Why today : Wednesday’s Sep 15–16 meeting is a starred SEP meeting — the first new dot plot after Friday’s CPI and 86% hike odds.
The FOMC dot plot is the scatter of each voter’s projected federal-funds rate at the end of this year, next year, and the longer run. It is not a committee forecast and not a promise. Each dot is one participant’s written projection in the Summary of Economic Projections, published at the four quarterly meetings. The median dot is the number markets quote; the scatter is the disagreement. A tight cluster near the current target means the path is consensus. A wide fan means the next hike or skip is still an argument, not a plan. Read the dots against the statement and the chair’s press conference — a hawkish median with a dovish presser is a different trade than the reverse. When this newsletter cites hike odds into a starred meeting, the live question is whether the new median dot confirms the 25 bp already priced or opens a second move.
Over the next 2–4 weeks expect the $95bn AI-server backlog to keep RBC’s $640 path live if memory stays tight; Friday’s +12% is the initiation print, not the thesis.
RBC $640+12% Fri$95bn backlogSL sells
Fundamentals
6.5/10
Sentiment / flow
3/10
Catalyst
8.5/10
Narrative
7.5/10
Technicals
5.5/10
RBC initiated Outperform with a $640 PT (David Paige, Sep 11)Fri close $567.29 +11.98% on 14.5M shares$95bn AI-server backlog; FY sales guide $192bn
Target
$640.00
Invalidation: Weekly close back below $506 or RBC pulls the $640 target.
TradingView's price for DELL. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 1 minBP.L BUY
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BP.LNEW
BP p.l.c.
6.5
+1.44%
BP.LVALUEBUYNEW
BP p.l.c. • Energy
6.5/10Conviction
$565.10
▲ +1.44%
Over the next month expect GS’s 700p target to keep a bid in BP while Brent holds the $100 weekly sleeve; Friday’s oil fade is a dip, not the exit.
GS 700pBrent $105Price Sep 10
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7.5/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
5/10
Goldman Sachs raised BP PT 660p → 700p, kept Buy (Sep 11)Michele della Vigna marked higher oil/gas/refining marginsBrent settled $104.61; still ~+8% on the week
Target
$700.00
Invalidation: Brent sustains a weekly close back below $90.
TradingView's price for BP.L. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 4 minStill <200 closes so sma200 is null and there is no BUY; SMH 568.53 ≤ sma50 577.32 and XBI 156.20 ≤ sma50 157.33 stay EXIT. HOLD XLE/XLV/XLB.
TREND FOLLOW
Still <200 closes so sma200 is null and there is no BUY; SMH 568.53 ≤ sma50 577.32 and XBI 156.20 ≤ sma50 157.33 stay EXIT. HOLD XLE/XLV/XLB.
6 of 18 universe names are above their 50-day on available history — a narrower tape, and none clear the 200-day test.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
6.5
-0.91%
XBI
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
6.3
-3.54%
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR
7
+0.32%
XLV
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
5.8
-2.52%
XLB
Materials Select Sector SPDR
5.8
-0.95%
SMHINFORMATION TECHNOLOGYEXIT🔥 27-issue streak
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
6.5/10Conviction
$568.53
▼ -0.91%
Exit the residual lot: Friday 568.53 is still through the 50-day (~577); the rule does not wait on FOMC.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sSemis mixed Friday; rule is the 50-day.Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sClose 568.53 ≤ sma50 577.32 — hard EXIT.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
7/10
Fri close 568.53 ≤ sma50 577.32Oracle fade vs Dell spike is not a 50-day reclaim
Invalidation: Daily close back above the 50-day (~$577).
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
Exit the held lot: Friday 156.20 lost the 50-day (~157.33); biotech RS is not a stay-long override.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo dated biotech print; the tape broke theRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sClose 156.20 ≤ sma50 157.33 — hard EXIT.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5.5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
7/10
Fri close 156.20 ≤ sma50 157.33XLV still above its 50-day — this is a sleeve break, not all health
Invalidation: Daily close back above the 50-day (~$157.33).
TradingView's price for XBI. It is not the last print in this letter.
XBI · 20d illustrative range
XLEENERGYHOLD🔥 27-issue streak
Energy Select Sector SPDR
7/10Conviction
$65.14
▲ +0.32%
Hold the energy sleeve while it stays above the 50-day; Friday’s oil dip is not an SMA break on the Sep 8 hist or the $65.14 web print.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sWTI still $100 on the week.Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sPrice > sma50 by ~10%; sma200 still null.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6.5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
7.5/10
Web Fri XLE $65.14 +0.32% vs WTI $100.05vs_sma50 still ~+10% on the available hist
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$58.55).
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
Hold XLV while it stays above the 50-day; last print 167.13 is Sep 8, so this is a stay, not a fresh add.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo dated health-care print; rule is the 50Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s167.13 > 163.38 on Sep 8 hist — thin.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5.5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
6/10
Last hist 167.13 > sma50 163.38XBI already lost the 50-day — keep the broad sleeve only
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$163.38).
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLBMATERIALSHOLD🔥 26-issue streak
Materials Select Sector SPDR
5.8/10Conviction
$51.94
▼ -0.95%
Hold the stub above a flat 50-day; copper’s tariff fade is why this is not a BUY even with RS vs SPY.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sCopper tariff delay is the live materials Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sBarely above sma50; sma200 null.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
5.5/10
Last hist 51.94 > sma50 51.70sma200 still null so the entry rule fails
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$51.70).
TradingView's price for XLB. It is not the last print in this letter.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minBTC ETFs leaked another $13.3M on Sep 11 (fourth day) while ETH ETFs took in $216M led by ETHA — HOLD both existing lots; no third asset cleared the bar.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
BTC ETFs leaked another $13.3M on Sep 11 (fourth day) while ETH ETFs took in $216M led by ETHA — HOLD both existing lots; no third asset cleared the bar.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
5.8
-0.03%
ETH-USD
Ethereum
7
+2.15%
BTC-USDHOLD🔥 10-issue streak
Bitcoin
5.8/10Conviction
$77226.00
▼ -0.03%
Hold the existing lot into FOMC: the BTC-ETF bleed slowed to −$13.3M, not a new buy after the −$450M three-day wash.
On-chain / supply not scored this run.ETF outflow slowed to −$13.3M, still 4 dayFOMC Sep 16 is the dated next test.Wrapper AUM $97.6B still the structural bi77226, flat vs Fri 77245, off the 80k high
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
5/10
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6.5/10
Technicals
5.5/10
SoSoValue Sep 11 BTC ETF −$13.29M (4th day)FOMC 2026-09-16 is the next flow test
Invalidation: Weekly close back below $70k.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Hold the existing ETH lot: the $216M ETF print is the fresh flow, not a Saturday chase after a 78195-style BTC fill error last week.
On-chain / L2 TVL not scored this run.Sep 11 ETH ETF +$216M is the flow print.BlackRock ETHA +$149M is dated.Institutional rotation BTC→ETH, not de-ris2519 +2.15% on the inflow day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
7.5/10
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
6.5/10
Spot ETH ETFs +$216.41M on Sep 11, ETHA +$149METH 2519 +2.2% vs BTC flat
Invalidation: ETF prints flip back to −$100M+ for two sessions.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 3 minWTI settled $100.05 (−2.4) and Brent $104.61; HOLD BNO, REDUCE CPER on the tariff delay, WATCH CORN after WASDE cut the yield to 178.5.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
WTI settled $100.05 (−2.4) and Brent $104.61; HOLD BNO, REDUCE CPER on the tariff delay, WATCH CORN after WASDE cut the yield to 178.5.
Oil still >$100 on the week while copper’s tariff-delay fade and a neutral-to-tighter corn WASDE are not one regime. HY OAS 2.70 has not blown — this is an…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BNO
Brent crude (BNO)
7.1
+6.42%
CPER
Copper (CPER)
5.9
-3.77%
CORN
Corn (CORN)
6.3
-0.45%
Brent crude (BNO)ENERGYHOLD🔥 2-issue streak
BNO
7.1/10Conviction
$63.13
▲ +6.42%
Hold the existing Brent proxy: Friday’s −$3 settle still leaves Brent $104.61 and a ~8% week; do not chase a second energy add into FOMC.
Brent $104.61 / WTI $100.05 still the physNo COT/positioning feed — sentiment_flow nFriday −$3 on Gulf talks; week still ~+8%.Hormuz premium faded one day, not the weekLast BNO 63.13 Sep 10; Friday oil broke th
Fundamentals
7.5/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
7.5/10
Technicals
6.5/10
Newsquawk: WTI 100.05 / Brent 104.61 on Sep 11BNO last hist 63.13 on Sep 10 (stale vs Friday oil drop)FOMC 2026-09-16 is the next oil-to-rates test
Invalidation: Brent sustains a close back below $90 with Hormuz flows normalizing.
TradingView's price for BNO. It is not the last print in this letter.
Keep reducing the copper proxy: the refined-tariff delay and record COMEX stocks are still the squeeze-killer; no add into FOMC.
COMEX stocks at records; tariff delay easeNo COT/positioning feed — sentiment_flow nReuters tariff-delay headline still the liSqueeze thesis broke; growth bid is not goSep 10 −3.8% off the week’s high.
Fundamentals
5.5/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
CPER 39.04 −3.77% on Sep 10 after the tariff-delay headlineICA: LME copper off the $14,875/t high to ~$14,312/t
Invalidation: A dated Section 232 refined-copper tariff decision that re-tightens the COMEX premium.
TradingView's price for CPER. It is not the last print in this letter.
Watch, don’t buy: WASDE cut the 2026 yield to 178.5 and carryout to 1.567bn, but stocks printed above consensus — not a chase.
Yield 178.5 and carryout 1.567bn — tighterNo COT/positioning feed — sentiment_flow nWASDE Sep 11 is the dated ag print.ADM: neutral for corn vs pre-report.CORN 19.92 −0.45% on the print.
Fundamentals
6.5/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7.5/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
USDA WASDE Sep 11: corn yield 178.5, production 15.800bn bu2026/27 carryout 1.567bn vs August 1.653bn; farm price $4.80
Invalidation: Carryout revised back above 1.80bn or CORN loses $19 on a weekly close.
TradingView's price for CORN. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 9 min30d hit rate 70%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech US
+2.00%
Named holdings. 118 smaller positions (29.68%) are off this picture.
Tech US
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$101998.36
Cash
$12233.79
P&L
$1998.36 (+2.00%)
Realized P&L
$-3181.65
TWR
+1.79%
Sharpe
0.38
Max DD
-2.39%
Sortino
0.97
Calmar
5.21
Ann. return
+12.47%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions88%
Cash12%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
DELL
0.4313
dispatched
Sell
ESTC
4.27
pending
Sell
GAP
18.28
pending
Sell
HD
8.14
pending
Sell
RDDT
12.88
pending
Sell
HOOD
2.24
pending
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$9068.62
+6.4%
XOM ×129
$21383.15
+8.6%
UNH ×8.49
$3219.46
-11.0%
INTC ×14.08
$1449.47
-76.6%
MSFT ×11.91
$5904.19
+21.8%
SBUX ×11.63
$1147.97
-7.4%
CBRE ×8.29
$1165.02
-6.0%
AMZN ×5.95
$1528.54
-5.0%
+42 more holdings
Track Record
21 On Track · 18 Lagging · 6 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
ABNB (2026-09-01)
6.5/10
+3.7%
On Track
ADBE (2026-09-07)
6.5/10
-5.4%
Lagging
ADI (2026-08-21)
8/10
+2.3%
On Track
AMAT (2026-08-13)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
AMD (2026-08-31)
6.5/10
+9.9%
On Track
AMZN (2026-08-29)
7/10
-5.0%
Lagging
APH (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
+1.4%
On Track
AVGO (2026-08-22)
7/10
-1.8%
Lagging
CRM (2026-09-08)
7/10
-1.7%
Lagging
CRWD (2026-08-27)
8/10
-1.1%
Lagging
CSCO (2026-08-12)
7.5/10
-7.4%
Lagging
CVX (2026-09-08)
7/10
+7.7%
On Track
DELL (2026-09-03)
7.5/10
+15.3%
On Track
DUOL (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
-7.0%
Lagging
ESTC (2026-08-29)
8/10
-16.5%
Stopped Out
FIVE (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
-3.0%
Lagging
FRO (2026-09-08)
7/10
+21.7%
On Track
GAP (2026-08-30)
7/10
-8.4%
Stopped Out
GLW (2026-09-09)
6.8/10
+0.0%
On Track
HAL (2026-09-03)
6.5/10
-4.8%
Lagging
HD (2026-08-19)
8/10
-8.7%
Stopped Out
HOOD (2026-09-04)
7/10
-9.7%
Stopped Out
INTU (2026-08-26)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
JPM (2026-09-08)
6.5/10
-0.7%
Lagging
MRK (2026-08-20)
7/10
-5.4%
Lagging
MRVL (2026-08-22)
8/10
+132.8%
On Track
MU (2026-08-15)
7.5/10
+3.8%
On Track
NAT (2026-08-31)
7/10
+10.2%
On Track
NVDA (2026-08-28)
7.5/10
+1.0%
On Track
OI (2026-08-24)
7/10
-9.1%
Stopped Out
PSX (2026-09-07)
7/10
+1.7%
On Track
QCOM (2026-09-09)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
RDDT (2026-08-18)
7.5/10
-9.1%
Stopped Out
ROST (2026-08-23)
8/10
-1.3%
Lagging
RTX (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
-1.6%
Lagging
SHEL (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
+6.5%
On Track
SLB (2026-09-01)
7/10
-6.7%
Lagging
SNOW (2026-09-04)
7.5/10
-7.7%
Lagging
TGT (2026-08-22)
7/10
-3.1%
Lagging
V (2026-08-25)
7/10
-3.1%
Lagging
VLO (2026-09-02)
7/10
+11.1%
On Track
WMT (2026-08-20)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
XOM (2026-08-18)
7.5/10
+8.6%
On Track
JEF (2026-09-10)
6.3/10
+0.0%
On Track
ORCL (2026-09-11)
7.2/10
-7.5%
Lagging
Euro-only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$121086.29
Cash
$20335.28
P&L
$21086.29 (+21.09%)
Realized P&L
$-42835.98
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
BP.L
0.7197
pending
Current Holdings
⚠ Live EU quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702
$23967.39
—
TTE.PA ×364
$26944.15
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
—
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
—
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
—
GLE.PA ×17.29
$1402.26
—
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
—
NWG.L ×191
$1346.17
—
+34 more holdings
Track Record
38 On Track · 1 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
ABN.AS (2026-08-24)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ADYEN.AS (2026-09-03)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
AIR.PA (2026-09-08)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
ALV.DE (2026-08-29)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ASML.AS (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
BAVA.CO (2026-08-23)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
DEME.BR (2026-08-27)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
DTE.DE (2026-09-04)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ENI.MI (2026-09-02)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
ENR.DE (2026-09-01)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
EOAN.DE (2026-08-27)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
EUROB.AT (2026-09-07)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
EVD.DE (2026-08-22)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
FGR.PA (2026-08-28)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
FLS.CO (2026-08-21)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
INW.MI (2026-08-26)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
IVG.MI (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
KGX.DE (2026-09-09)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
LR.PA (2026-08-31)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
MSLH.L (2026-08-11)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
MT.AS (2026-09-06)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
NDX1.DE (2026-09-08)
6.8/10
+0.0%
On Track
NSIS-B.CO (2026-08-21)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
PUB.PA (2026-09-04)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
REP.MC (2026-09-02)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
RWE.DE (2026-09-03)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SAN.MC (2026-09-08)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
SAP.DE (2026-08-30)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SHEL.L (2026-08-22)
6/10
+1.2%
On Track
SHL.DE (2026-08-24)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SIE.DE (2026-08-29)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SU.PA (2026-08-31)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
TEF.MC (2026-09-07)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
TKA.DE (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
TTE.PA (2026-09-01)
7/10
-1.9%
Lagging
VOD.L (2026-09-05)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
RIO.L (2026-09-10)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
ISP.MI (2026-09-11)
6.7/10
+0.0%
On Track
BP.L (2026-09-12)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
Penny Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live penny quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578
$3755.55
—
PYPD ×1564
$6940.50
—
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
—
Track Record
4 On Track
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BFRI (2026-09-09)
5/10
+0.0%
On Track
INO (2026-08-24)
4.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
OTLK (2026-09-09)
4/10
+0.0%
On Track
PYPD (2026-08-19)
6.5/10
+6.1%
On Track
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$28966.37
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live commodity-ETF quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×202
$26216.50
—
GLD ×30.1
$11738.20
—
CPER ×136
$5372.73
—
SLV ×84.48
$4999.97
—
PPLT ×66.63
$1111.38
—
BNO ×35.14
$1850.57
—
URA ×23.16
$1066.93
—
UGA ×26.78
$3377.87
—
+11 more holdings
Track Record
15 On Track · 4 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BNO (2026-09-07)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
CANE (2026-09-06)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
COPX (2026-09-08)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
CORN (2026-08-31)
7/10
+1.1%
On Track
CPER (2026-09-09)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
GDX (2026-09-04)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
GLD (2026-08-30)
5/10
-0.4%
Lagging
LIT (2026-08-24)
6.5/10
-3.7%
Lagging
PALL (2026-08-30)
4/10
+2.1%
On Track
PPLT (2026-09-05)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SIL (2026-09-04)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
SLV (2026-09-01)
6.5/10
+2.5%
On Track
SLX (2026-09-07)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
SOYB (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
+2.1%
On Track
UGA (2026-09-06)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
UNG (2026-09-03)
6.5/10
-0.9%
Lagging
URA (2026-09-05)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
USO (2026-09-09)
6.3/10
+0.0%
On Track
WEAT (2026-08-30)
7.5/10
-3.1%
Lagging
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$32370.73
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live crypto quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5510
$35015.45
—
ETH-USD ×14.91
$28949.67
—
SOL-USD ×26.81
$2795.91
—
XRP-USD ×628
$868.24
—
Track Record
3 On Track · 3 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BTC (2026-08-11)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
BTC-USD (2026-09-09)
7/10
-1.2%
Lagging
ETH (2026-08-11)
5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ETH-USD (2026-09-09)
5.8/10
-0.3%
Lagging
SOL-USD (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
-1.4%
Lagging
XRP-USD (2026-08-29)
6/10
+0.7%
On Track
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$35000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live Anti-Fragile quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65
$25000.00
—
IEF ×108
$10000.00
—
DBC ×654
$20000.00
—
SPLV ×132
$10000.00
—
Trend Follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$75717.93
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Sell
SMH
5.03
pending
Sell
XBI
32
pending
Current Holdings
⚠ Live Trend Follow quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86
$5539.52
—
SMH ×5.03
$2990.61
—
XLV ×30.27
$5207.77
—
XBI ×32
$5207.77
—
XLB ×93.53
$4954.78
—
Track Record
5 On Track · 5 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
ITA (2026-08-21)
4/10
-5.8%
Lagging
QQQ (2026-09-07)
3/10
+0.0%
On Track
SMH (2026-09-09)
4.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
XBI (2026-08-23)
8/10
-1.4%
Lagging
XLB (2026-08-23)
8/10
-3.1%
Lagging
XLE (2026-08-23)
8/10
+2.6%
On Track
XLF (2026-09-08)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
XLK (2026-09-08)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
XLRE (2026-08-20)
6.5/10
-2.6%
Lagging
XLV (2026-08-23)
8/10
-4.3%
Lagging
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +69.90%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
FOMC dot plot
The FOMC dot plot is the scatter of each voter’s projected federal-funds rate at the end of this year, next year, and the longer run.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.