yesterday_retrospective — GET /movers required index=; SPX movers are Sep 14 cache. Squawk-alert 401. Asia Tuesday closes missing — Nikkei/HSI last print Sep 14.
market_pulse — SPX analytics dated 2026-09-14 (pctFromAth −1.96%, ATH 7810). VIXCLS 15.84 is Sep 11; spot VIX 17.67. DGS10 FRED 4.96 Sep 11 vs ^TNX 5.00 today. DTWEXBGS weekly 2026-09-04 118.07. DFF 3.63 is Sep 11.
us_equity_ideas — Screener-first then widened off this morning's LMT/CRWD. /news missed Berenberg LLY and Guggenheim LHX — used web. 13F/congress empty. LHX last aggregator close Sep 11.
eu_equity_ideas — eu_fundamentals_gap — KIE.L /fundamentals empty; /price stooq JS. LSE ~256.4p from ADVFN vs hist 246.6p Sep 11. Did not retry TTE.PA or GSK.L (already PENDING).
penny_plays — screener unavailable or empty for category=penny — fell back to web search; penny universe may not be seeded yet. No ≥6/10 or 4.0–5.9 watchlist name cleared. ideas=[].
forex_rebalancing — squawk-alert feed unavailable — fell back to central-bank web search for same-day FX events. EURUSD hist last print Sep 11; spot 1.1537. FRED ECBDFR still 2.25 (pre-effective).
commodities_outlook — ETF /price circuit_open → stooq JS; used /history last close. COT/positioning empty. Widened off this morning's UNG/BNO pair to USO on the Reuters pipeline story.
crypto_landscape — ETF prints from Lookonchain/Farside/Gate (web), not aggregator. ETH-USD still a known PM 400 — HOLD, no BUY.
trend_follow — Universe still <200 closes — sma200 null, 200-day test fails, zero BUY. 6 of 17 names above sma50. Skip duplicate SMH/XLB/XBI PENDING SELLs.
concept_spotlight — Tuesday weekday — presentation=skip. Duration is unused in lookback but Pulse already named the 10y; no new catalog term earned a full card.
portfolio_reality_check — INTC cost-basis outlier ignored for stop-loss. CSCO −9.2% on live Tech US marks is a published 30d pick — SELL. Env PORTFOLIO_ID_TECH_US taken from api-keys.env.txt.
September FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥3.75–4.00%)
Probability: High • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $101651.13
Blended P&L: +1.65% • 30d Hit Rate: +71.30%
1 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 97 of 136 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 11.1%, average loss -4.5%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 3 min^TNX 5.00% (+8 bp vs Monday hist) with VIX 17.67, weekly USD 118.07 (Sep 4), and SPY−RSP d1 +0.05 keep the tape tightening, not broad risk-on.
MARKET PULSE
SPX 7,585.91 −0.45% with ^TNX at 5.00% and VIX 17.67; breadth from the Sep 14 snapshot is 46% advancing and SPY−RSP d1 only +5 bp.
Tightening Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
AI^TNX 5.00% (+8 bp vs Monday hist) with VIX 17.67, weekly USD 118.07 (Sep 4), and SPY−RSP d1 +0.05 keep the tape tightening, not broad risk-on.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,585.91
yday 7,656.98
▼ -0.45%
NASDAQ Data
26,004.88
yday 26,333.04
▼ -0.69%
Dow Jones Data
52,054.49
yday 52,573.29
▼ -0.70%
Russell 2K Data
2,873.57
yday 2,903.94
▼ -0.65%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
4,333.10
yday 4,363.70
▼ -0.70%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data
103.41
yday 102.74
▲ +0.65%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
77,242.00
yday 77,565.00
▼ -0.42%
Ethereum Data
2,484.64
yday 2,513.91
▼ -1.16%
Rates
10Y Yield Data
5.00
yday 4.98
▲ +0.79%
UST 10y Data
4.96
yday 4.95
—
UST 30y Data
5.35
yday 5.37
—
Credit
HY OAS Data
2.65
yday 2.70
—
HY−IG OAS gap Data
1.85 pp
calm
Volatility
VIX Data
17.67
yday 15.84
▲ +3.33%
VIXCLS Data
15.84
yday 17.84
—
VIX/VIX3M term structure Data
0.90 ratio
yday 0.85 ratio
calm
VIX9D/VIX Data
0.99 ratio
yday 0.91 ratio
watch
MOVE index Data
83.90 index points
yday 82.21 index
watch
Dollar & FX
EUR/USD Data
1.15
yday 1.16
▼ -0.18%
USD broad Data
118.07
yday 118.07
—
wk
DXY 5-session RoC Data
0.21 %
calm
Breadth
SPY−RSP 5d Data
+1.21pp
yday +1.46pp
—
SPY−RSP 21d Data
+1.75pp
yday +0.89pp
—
% from 52w Data
-1.96%
yday -1.96%
—
Stock-bond 20d correlation (SPY vs TLT) Data
0.25 ratio
yday 0.40 ratio
watch
% SPX above SMA200 Data
65.87 %
calm
Liquidity
SOFR − DFF Data
-0.01 pp
yday -0.01 pp
calm
Initial claims (ICSA) Data
206,000.00 claims
yday 206,000.00 claims
calm
Cross-asset
Gold/copper (GLD/CPER) Data
10.27 ratio
calm
Other
UST 3y Data
4.69
yday 4.63
—
Eff. funds Data
3.63
yday 3.63
—
Cover checks
VIX Data
17.67 / 25.00
yday 15.84
Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread Data
0.32 / -0.20
yday 0.33 / -0.20
Not Triggered
HY OAS Data
2.65 / 5.00
yday 2.70
Not Triggered
SPX drawdown from ATH Data
-1.96 / -15.00
yday -1.96 / -15.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AIWTI 103.41 with HY OAS still 2.65 and copper easing (not collapsing) is growth-plus-inflation. Keep Gave’s mix: gold 25 / DBC 20 / IEF 10 / SPLV 10 / cash 35; TLT and SH stay at 0.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 1 minEurope sold the open on $107 Brent and 5% UST 10s: Stoxx 600 −0.77% to 634.18, CAC −1.09%, DAX −0.65%; FTSE closed +0.07% on energy.
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Europe sold the open on $107 Brent and 5% UST 10s: Stoxx 600 −0.77% to 634.18, CAC −1.09%, DAX −0.65%; FTSE closed +0.07% on energy.
Bridge to Today
US cash is still open with SPX −0.45% and ^TNX at 5.00% — Wednesday’s FOMC statement is the next binary.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 4 minStill no 200-day history, so zero BUY. Energy and health hold above the 50-day; SMH 541.50 and XLB 50.49 stay EXIT — PENDING SELLs already queued, do not restack.
TREND FOLLOW
Still no 200-day history, so zero BUY. Energy and health hold above the 50-day; SMH 541.50 and XLB 50.49 stay EXIT — PENDING SELLs already queued, do not restack.
6 of 17 priced universe names close above their 50-day (XLK, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLC, XBI) — a narrower tape than a real trend-on book.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR
7.5
-0.94%
XLV
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
6.2
+1.45%
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
3.5
-4.75%
XBI
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
5.2
+0.90%
XLB
Materials Select Sector SPDR
3.5
-0.90%
XLEENERGYHOLD🔥 31-issue streak
Energy Select Sector SPDR
7.5/10Conviction
$64.53
▼ -0.94%
Over the next 2–4 weeks stay long energy beta while XLE holds 58.95; RS vs SPY +14.6% is the live confirmation.
No usable filing/ratio print this run.13F/insider/COT empty this run.WTI 103.41 on East-West still offline.Narrative not independently scored.64.53 vs sma50 58.95, vs SPY 20d +14.6%.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
8/10
WTI 103.41 on East-West still offlineXLE vs sma50 +9.5%
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$58.95).
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next week hold the health sleeve as the 5% 10-year tax hits duration; it is a HOLD, not a fresh add.
No usable filing/ratio print this run.13F/insider/COT empty this run.Defensive bid as 10y tags 5%.Narrative not independently scored.167.75 vs sma50 163.93, vs SPY 20d +5.2%.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
6.5/10
XLV +1.45% on the last US tapeLLY upgrade is the single-name echo
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$163.93).
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLV · 20d illustrative range
SMHTECHNOLOGYEXIT🔥 31-issue streak
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
3.5/10Conviction
$541.50
▼ -4.75%
Rule is EXIT: 541.50 is still through the 50-day — PENDING SELL already queued, do not restack.
No usable filing/ratio print this run.13F/insider/COT empty this run.AI-pause tape still in semis.Narrative not independently scored.541.50 ≤ sma50 575.77 — EXIT.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
AI-lab pause still in the SOX tape
Invalidation: Daily close back above the 50-day (~$575.77) would re-open a HOLD, not a BUY (no sma200).
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
Rule flipped back to HOLD: 157.60 is a tick above 157.49 — leave the Sep 14 PENDING SELL, do not add.
No usable filing/ratio print this run.13F/insider/COT empty this run.No fresh biotech catalyst today.Narrative not independently scored.157.60 just above sma50 157.49; HOLD.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
5.5/10
Price reclaimed the 50-day by 7 bp
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$157.49).
TradingView's price for XBI. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLBMATERIALSEXIT🔥 30-issue streak
Materials Select Sector SPDR
3.5/10Conviction
$50.49
▼ -0.90%
Still EXIT: 50.49 through 51.66 — PENDING SELL already queued from Sep 13–14.
No usable filing/ratio print this run.13F/insider/COT empty this run.Copper pullback toward $14k/t.Narrative not independently scored.50.49 ≤ sma50 51.66 — EXIT.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
Copper eased toward $14k/t on warehouse deliveries
Invalidation: Daily close back above the 50-day (~$51.66).
TradingView's price for XLB. It is not the last print in this letter.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minSpot BTC ETFs flipped to +$147M today after last week's −$336M 7d hole; ETH ETFs added +$95M and are still +$222M over 7d. HOLD both into Wednesday — do not BUY ETH-USD (PM 400).
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Spot BTC ETFs flipped to +$147M today after last week's −$336M 7d hole; ETH ETFs added +$95M and are still +$222M over 7d. HOLD both into Wednesday — do not BUY ETH-USD (PM 400).
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
5.2
-0.42%
ETH-USD
Ethereum
6.2
-1.16%
BTC-USDHOLD🔥 14-issue streak
Bitcoin
5.2/10Conviction
$77242.00
▼ -0.42%
Into Wednesday, treat the +$147M print as a 7d-hole refill, not a new trend — HOLD the core sleeve through the hike.
7d ETF still −$336M even after today's +$1Lookonchain Sep 15: +1,917 BTC / +$147.42MFOMC Sep 16 is the next binary, not a BTC Hike-week bid is fragile after last week's77,242 −0.42% vs Mon; no breakout.
Fundamentals
5/10
Sentiment / flow
6/10
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
5/10
Sep 15 ETF +$147.42M after 7d −$336MFOMC 2026-09-16
Invalidation: Weekly close back under $70k or a fresh 3-day ETF outflow >$400M.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
ETH flow is the cleaner institutional tape (+$222M 7d) but the paper book cannot add ETH-USD — HOLD, do not retry the 400.
ETH ETF 7d +$222M vs BTC still net-negativSep 15 +$95.44M ETH ETFs; Mon +$121.1M FarFlow rebound is real; PM will not accept EStaking-enabled ETHB is the incremental in2,484.64 −1.16%; holds the post-summer ran
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
7/10
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
Sep 15 ETH ETFs +$95.44M; 7d +$221.91MMon Farside ETH +$121.1M
Invalidation: ETH ETFs flip to a 5-session outflow streak.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 2 minBuy the WTI proxy (USO 156.66 +1.1%) on the still-dark East-West line; HOLD UNG — the morning add is already in the book.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Buy the WTI proxy (USO 156.66 +1.1%) on the still-dark East-West line; HOLD UNG — the morning add is already in the book.
WTI 103.41 with DGS10 4.96% (FRED Sep 11) and ^TNX 5.00% is an inflation-sleeve tape: crude is the live bottleneck, gold 3,333 −0.70% is the rate-hike tax,…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
USO
United States Oil Fund
7.2
+1.14%
UNG
United States Natural Gas Fund
6.9
+1.57%
United States Oil FundENERGYBUY
USO
7.2/10Conviction
$156.66
▲ +1.14%
Over the next FOMC window, East-West still offline plus Hormuz at ~10 ships/day keeps WTI supported above $100 — own USO, not a fourth crude future.
East-West 4 mb/d still offline; Hormuz ~1013F/insider/COT empty this run.Reuters Sep 15: fresh Houthi attacks, pipeSupply shock, not a demand bust, into WednUSO 156.66 +1.14%; WTI 103.41 +0.65%.
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
7/10
Reuters 2026-09-15: Saudi East-West still down after fresh Houthi attacksWTI 103.41 +0.65%; Brent hist 108.92FOMC decision 2026-09-16 — hike odds stay high while oil is bid
Invalidation: WTI sustains a close below $98 with East-West restart confirmed.
TradingView's price for USO. It is not the last print in this letter.
United States Natural Gas FundENERGYHOLD🔥 2-issue streak
UNG
6.9/10Conviction
$10.33
▲ +1.57%
Over the next heating-season window, EU storage at ~68% and TTF >€80 keep the LNG bid — but this book already added UNG this morning, so HOLD.
EU storage ~68% vs 84% 5y; TTF still >€80/13F/insider/COT empty this run.LNG-from-Gulf risk still live; no new UNG US LNG substitutes missing Qatari/UAE cargUNG 10.33 +1.57%; NG=F 2.91.
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6.5/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
7/10
ING: TTF well above €80/MWh; EU storage ~68% vs 84% 5yUNG 10.33 +1.57%; NG=F 2.91
Invalidation: TTF closes back under €70 with US storage back to 5y average.
TradingView's price for UNG. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 10 min30d hit rate 71%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech US
+1.65%
Named holdings. 118 smaller positions (29.66%) are off this picture.
Tech US
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$101651.13
Cash
$11509.52
P&L
$1651.13 (+1.65%)
Realized P&L
$-3181.65
TWR
+1.79%
Sharpe
0.33
Max DD
-2.39%
Sortino
0.89
Calmar
4.93
Ann. return
+11.79%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions89%
Cash11%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
LLY
0.2100
dispatched
Buy
LHX
0.9766
dispatched
Sell
CSCO
21.7
—
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$8749.83
+2.7%
XOM ×129
$21265.92
+8.0%
UNH ×8.49
$3257.34
-10.0%
INTC ×14.08
$1368.50
-77.9%
MSFT ×11.91
$6020.70
+24.2%
SBUX ×11.63
$1151.81
-7.1%
CBRE ×8.29
$1168.26
-5.8%
AMZN ×5.95
$1509.25
-6.2%
+42 more holdings
Track Record
26 On Track · 18 Lagging · 8 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
ABNB (2026-09-01)
6.5/10
+4.0%
On Track
ADBE (2026-09-07)
6.5/10
-0.3%
Lagging
ADI (2026-08-21)
8/10
-2.5%
Lagging
AMAT (2026-08-13)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
AMD (2026-08-31)
6.5/10
+5.0%
On Track
AMZN (2026-08-29)
7/10
-6.2%
Lagging
APH (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
-5.1%
Lagging
AVGO (2026-08-22)
7/10
-6.4%
Lagging
CRM (2026-09-08)
7/10
+2.9%
On Track
CRWD (2026-08-27)
8/10
+12.6%
On Track
CSCO (2026-08-12)
7.5/10
-9.1%
Stopped Out
CVX (2026-09-08)
7/10
+6.7%
On Track
DELL (2026-09-03)
7.5/10
+7.0%
On Track
DUOL (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
-2.1%
Lagging
ESTC (2026-08-29)
8/10
-14.8%
Stopped Out
FIVE (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
-1.0%
Lagging
FRO (2026-09-08)
7/10
+25.0%
On Track
GAP (2026-08-30)
7/10
-10.9%
Stopped Out
GLW (2026-09-09)
6.8/10
+0.0%
On Track
HAL (2026-09-03)
6.5/10
-7.0%
Lagging
HD (2026-08-19)
8/10
-8.0%
Stopped Out
HOOD (2026-09-04)
7/10
-8.3%
Stopped Out
INTU (2026-08-26)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
JPM (2026-09-08)
6.5/10
-2.4%
Lagging
MRK (2026-08-20)
7/10
-4.8%
Lagging
MRVL (2026-08-22)
8/10
+115.8%
On Track
MU (2026-08-15)
7.5/10
-1.6%
Lagging
NAT (2026-08-31)
7/10
+12.7%
On Track
NVDA (2026-08-28)
7.5/10
-2.4%
Lagging
OI (2026-08-24)
7/10
-10.6%
Stopped Out
PSX (2026-09-07)
7/10
+0.8%
On Track
QCOM (2026-09-09)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
RDDT (2026-08-18)
7.5/10
-6.4%
Lagging
ROST (2026-08-23)
8/10
-1.6%
Lagging
RTX (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
-2.7%
Lagging
SHEL (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
+6.1%
On Track
SLB (2026-09-01)
7/10
-11.3%
Stopped Out
SNOW (2026-09-04)
7.5/10
-6.8%
Lagging
TGT (2026-08-22)
7/10
-1.3%
Lagging
V (2026-08-25)
7/10
-1.9%
Lagging
VLO (2026-09-02)
7/10
+9.0%
On Track
WMT (2026-08-20)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
XOM (2026-08-18)
7.5/10
+8.0%
On Track
JEF (2026-09-10)
6.3/10
+0.0%
On Track
ORCL (2026-09-11)
7.2/10
-10.9%
Stopped Out
ESI (2026-09-13)
6.8/10
+0.0%
On Track
VRTX (2026-09-13)
6.9/10
+0.0%
On Track
ALGT (2026-09-14)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
COP (2026-09-14)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
LMT (2026-09-15)
6.6/10
+0.0%
On Track
LLY (2026-09-15)
7.1/10
+0.0%
On Track
LHX (2026-09-15)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
Euro Only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$121086.29
Cash
$20335.28
P&L
$21086.29 (+21.09%)
Realized P&L
$-42835.98
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
KIE.L
136
dispatched
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702
$23967.39
—
TTE.PA ×364
$26944.15
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
—
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
—
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
—
GLE.PA ×17.29
$1402.26
—
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
—
NWG.L ×191
$1346.17
—
+34 more holdings
Track Record
42 On Track · 1 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
ABN.AS (2026-08-24)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ADYEN.AS (2026-09-03)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
AIR.PA (2026-09-08)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
ALV.DE (2026-08-29)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ASML.AS (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
BAVA.CO (2026-08-23)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
DEME.BR (2026-08-27)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
DTE.DE (2026-09-04)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ENI.MI (2026-09-02)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
ENR.DE (2026-09-01)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
EOAN.DE (2026-08-27)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
EUROB.AT (2026-09-07)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
EVD.DE (2026-08-22)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
FGR.PA (2026-08-28)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
FLS.CO (2026-08-21)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
INW.MI (2026-08-26)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
IVG.MI (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
KGX.DE (2026-09-09)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
LR.PA (2026-08-31)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
MSLH.L (2026-08-11)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
MT.AS (2026-09-06)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
NDX1.DE (2026-09-08)
6.8/10
+0.0%
On Track
NSIS-B.CO (2026-08-21)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
PUB.PA (2026-09-04)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
REP.MC (2026-09-02)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
RWE.DE (2026-09-03)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SAN.MC (2026-09-08)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
SAP.DE (2026-08-30)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SHEL.L (2026-08-22)
6/10
+1.2%
On Track
SHL.DE (2026-08-24)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SIE.DE (2026-08-29)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SU.PA (2026-08-31)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
TEF.MC (2026-09-07)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
TKA.DE (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
TTE.PA (2026-09-01)
7/10
-1.9%
Lagging
VOD.L (2026-09-05)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
RIO.L (2026-09-10)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
ISP.MI (2026-09-11)
6.7/10
+0.0%
On Track
BP.L (2026-09-12)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
NOVN.SW (2026-09-13)
6.2/10
+0.0%
On Track
TTE.PA (2026-09-14)
7.3/10
+0.0%
On Track
GSK.L (2026-09-15)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
KIE.L (2026-09-15)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
Penny Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578
$3755.55
—
PYPD ×1564
$6940.50
—
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
—
Track Record
4 On Track
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BFRI (2026-09-09)
5/10
+0.0%
On Track
INO (2026-08-24)
4.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
OTLK (2026-09-09)
4/10
+0.0%
On Track
PYPD (2026-08-19)
6.5/10
+6.1%
On Track
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$35000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65
$25000.00
—
IEF ×108
$10000.00
—
DBC ×654
$20000.00
—
SPLV ×132
$10000.00
—
Trend Follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$75717.93
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Sell
SMH
5.03
—
Sell
XLB
93.53
—
Hold
XLE
—
—
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86
$5539.52
—
SMH ×5.03
$2990.61
—
XLV ×30.27
$5207.77
—
XBI ×32
$5207.77
—
XLB ×93.53
$4954.78
—
Track Record
5 On Track · 5 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
ITA (2026-08-21)
4/10
-5.8%
Lagging
QQQ (2026-09-07)
3/10
+0.0%
On Track
SMH (2026-09-09)
4.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
XBI (2026-08-23)
8/10
-1.4%
Lagging
XLB (2026-08-23)
8/10
-3.1%
Lagging
XLE (2026-08-23)
8/10
+2.6%
On Track
XLF (2026-09-08)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
XLK (2026-09-08)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
XLRE (2026-08-20)
6.5/10
-2.6%
Lagging
XLV (2026-08-23)
8/10
-4.3%
Lagging
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$28966.37
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
USO
3.7
dispatched
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×202
$26216.50
—
GLD ×30.1
$11738.20
—
CPER ×136
$5372.73
—
SLV ×84.48
$4999.97
—
PPLT ×66.63
$1111.38
—
BNO ×35.14
$1850.57
—
URA ×23.16
$1066.93
—
UGA ×26.78
$3377.87
—
+11 more holdings
Track Record
17 On Track · 4 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BNO (2026-09-07)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
CANE (2026-09-06)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
COPX (2026-09-08)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
CORN (2026-08-31)
7/10
+1.1%
On Track
CPER (2026-09-09)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
GDX (2026-09-04)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
GLD (2026-08-30)
5/10
-0.4%
Lagging
LIT (2026-08-24)
6.5/10
-3.7%
Lagging
PALL (2026-08-30)
4/10
+2.1%
On Track
PPLT (2026-09-05)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SIL (2026-09-04)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
SLV (2026-09-01)
6.5/10
+2.5%
On Track
SLX (2026-09-07)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
SOYB (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
+2.1%
On Track
UGA (2026-09-06)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
UNG (2026-09-03)
6.5/10
-0.9%
Lagging
URA (2026-09-05)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
USO (2026-09-09)
6.3/10
+0.0%
On Track
WEAT (2026-08-30)
7.5/10
-3.1%
Lagging
UNG (2026-09-15)
6.9/10
+0.0%
On Track
USO (2026-09-15)
7.2/10
+0.0%
On Track
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$32370.73
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5510
$35015.45
—
ETH-USD ×14.91
$28949.67
—
SOL-USD ×26.81
$2795.91
—
XRP-USD ×628
$868.24
—
Track Record
3 On Track · 3 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BTC (2026-08-11)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
BTC-USD (2026-09-09)
7/10
-1.2%
Lagging
ETH (2026-08-11)
5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ETH-USD (2026-09-09)
5.8/10
-0.3%
Lagging
SOL-USD (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
-1.4%
Lagging
XRP-USD (2026-08-29)
6/10
+0.7%
On Track
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +71.30%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
duration
Duration is the interest-rate sensitivity of a bond (or a bond-like equity), expressed in years: if yield rises by one percentage point, a duration-8 asset falls about 8% before convexity.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.