UST 3y 4.73 UST 10y 4.97 UST 30y 5.34 Eff. funds 3.63 USD broad (wk) 118.0732 VIX (FRED) 17.1
MORNING ALPHA

Daily Financial Newsletter

Wednesday, September 16, 2026 · 09:40:32 · archived issue
EN FR
Read the Full Letter Here Support Morning Alpha
⚠ Data quality : DEGRADED · 14 notes
⚠ Data quality: DEGRADED
yesterday_retrospective — GET /movers required index=; skipped. Squawk-alert 401. Asia Tue closes used Wed open prints for Nikkei/HSI/KS11.
market_pulse — SPX analytics dated 2026-09-15. VIXCLS FRED 17.1 is Sep 14; spot VIX 16.91 Sep 16. DGS10 FRED 4.97 Sep 14 vs ^TNX 4.996. DTWEXBGS weekly Sep 4. Macro observations[] returned only the latest print — no delta_bp.
us_equity_ideas — Screener-first then widened off LLY/LHX. /news missed JPM IREN OW — used CNBC. 13F/congress empty; insider sells are 2025-dated. Did not re-BUY LLY/LHX.
eu_equity_ideas — eu_fundamentals_gap — BAB.L /fundamentals empty; /price stooq JS. Display 10.195 GBP from Reuters/AGM tape vs hist 9.654 Sep 11. Did not retry TTE.PA or GSK.L.
penny_plays — screener unavailable or empty for category=penny — fell back to web search; no name cleared a ≥6 Multi-Bagger score with a dated 48h catalyst.
forex_rebalancing — squawk-alert feed unavailable. EURJPY/EURGBP/EURCHF hist last print Sep 12. FRED DXY is weekly Sep 4.
commodities_outlook — ETF /price circuit_open → stooq JS on several names; used eodhd /history last close for USO/UNG/URA. COT empty. Widened off BNO/GLD defaults; no new BUY.
crypto_landscape — ETF prints from news.bitcoin.com / Gate-SoSoValue (web), not aggregator. ETH-USD still a known PM 400 — HOLD, no BUY.
trend_follow — Universe still <200 closes — sma200 null, 200-day test fails, zero BUY. 5 of 17 names above sma50. Skip duplicate SMH/XLB/XBI PENDING SELLs.
risk_cover_playbook — Put/call omitted (no options-flow endpoint). Gold/copper omitted — CPER /price stooq JS. Stock-bond 20d corr +0.24 uses aligned SPY/TLT hist (48 common dates). ICSA single obs, not a 4-week average.
concept_spotlight — Wednesday weekday — presentation=skip. FOMC dot plot is the live catalog term but it ran 2026-09-12 inside lookback.
portfolio_reality_check — INTC cost-basis outlier ignored for stop-loss. AMZN −8.07% on live Tech US marks is a published 30d pick — SELL. File PORTFOLIO_ID_TECH_US wins over stale env.
portfolio_reality_check — Euro-only/Penny Plays/Commodities/Crypto/Anti-Fragile/Trend Follow books all_prices_estimated.
portfolio_reality_check — CSCO/SLB/ORCL/ESTC/GAP/HD/RDDT/HOOD/OI already have PENDING SELLs — skip restack. SBUX −9.4% is not a last-30d published pick.
General
GeneralThe Bottom Line 1 minFOMC 14:00 EDT with 0/4 crash triggers; pulse is tightening on a 5% 10-year.
THE BOTTOM LINE
RISK-ON=
FOMC 14:00 EDT with 0/4 crash triggers; pulse is tightening on a 5% 10-year.
High-yield OAS 2.71 bp
150 bp800 bp
Under 350 bp scores +1. Wider spreads score 0, then −1, then −2.
S&P shares above the 200-day 65.4%
0%100%
Above 65% scores +1. 40–65% scores 0. Under 40% scores −1.
Today's Top Picks
BAB.L
7.3/10
USO
6.8/10
XLE
6.3/10
IREN
6/10
UNG
6.6/10
Biggest Risk
September FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥3.75–4.00%)
Probability: High • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $201500.06
Blended P&L: +0.75% • 30d Hit Rate: +71.00%
2 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 98 of 138 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 12.0%, average loss -5.1%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 3 minFRED 10y 4.97% (Sep 14) and ^TNX 5.00% sit above DFF 3.63% while HY OAS is only 2.71 and SPX is −2.87% from ATH — a rate tax, not a credit break, into today’s FOMC.
MARKET PULSE
SPX 7,585.73 −0.45% with FRED 10y 4.97% (Sep 14) and spot VIX 16.91; 48% advancing and SPY−RSP d1 −51 bp is a tightening tape into 14:00 EDT FOMC.
Tightening Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
AIFRED 10y 4.97% (Sep 14) and ^TNX 5.00% sit above DFF 3.63% while HY OAS is only 2.71 and SPX is −2.87% from ATH — a rate tax, not a credit break, into today’s FOMC.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data7,585.73
yday 7,585.91
▼ -0.45%
NASDAQ Data25,981.57
yday 26,004.88
▼ -0.61%
Dow Jones Data52,093.11
yday 52,054.49
▼ -0.40%
Russell 2K Data2,870.29
yday 2,873.57
▼ -0.70%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data4,372.00
yday 4,333.10
▲ +0.89%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data104.02
yday 103.41
▼ -1.38%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data75,964.00
yday 77,242.00
▼ -1.65%
Ethereum Data2,403.84
yday 2,484.64
▲ +0.17%
Rates
10Y Yield Data5.00
yday 5.00
▼ -0.28%
UST 10y Data4.97
yday 4.96
—
UST 30y Data5.34
yday 5.35
—
Credit
HY OAS Data2.71
yday 2.65
—
IG OAS Data0.80 pctcalm
HY−IG spread differential Data1.91 ppcalm
Volatility
VIX Data16.91
yday 17.67
▼ -1.69%
VIX (FRED) Data17.10
yday 15.84
—
VIX9D/VIX front-of-curve Data1.02 ratiowatch
VIX/VIX3M term structure Data0.87 ratio
yday 0.90 ratio
calm
MOVE index Data83.71 index
yday 83.90 index points
watch
Dollar & FX
EUR/USD Data1.16
yday 1.15
▲ +0.14%
USD broad (wk) Data118.07
yday 118.07
—
wk
USD broad (DTWEXBGS, weekly) Data118.07 indexwatch
Breadth
SPY−RSP 5d Data+0.61pp
yday +1.21pp
—
SPY−RSP 21d Data+1.28pp
yday +1.75pp
—
% from 52w Data-2.87%
yday -1.96%
—
Stock-bond 20d correlation (SPY vs TLT) Data0.24 ratio
yday 0.25 ratio
watch
% SPX members above SMA200 Data65.38 pctcalm
Liquidity
SOFR−Fed funds Data-0.01 ppcalm
Initial jobless claims Data206,000.00 countcalm
Other
UST 3y Data4.73
yday 4.69
—
Eff. funds Data3.63
yday 3.63
—
Cover checks
VIX Data16.91 / 25.00
yday 17.67
Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread Data0.33 / -0.20
yday 0.32 / -0.20
Not Triggered
HY OAS Data2.71 / 5.00
yday 2.65
Not Triggered
SPX drawdown from ATH Data-2.87 / -10.00
yday -1.96 / -15.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AIWTI still ~$104 with a 5% 10-year and HY OAS only 2.71 — growth is not breaking while inflation risk is the live sleeve. Own gold + DBC, keep TLT at 0.
DataHedge instruments : GLD, TLT, SH, IEF · Target cash 15%
Sleeve TickerTarget Action
Gold AIGLD25%Hold
Long bonds AITLT0%Exit
Intermediate bonds AIIEF10%Hold
Commodities AIDBC20%Hold
Defensive equity AISPLV10%Hold
Crash hedge AISH0%Exit
Cash AI—35%Hold
If triggered today — do this now AI
• Trim high-beta growth (XLK/SMH) on a VIX >25 close
• Raise Anti-Fragile cash and turn SH on if 2+ hard triggers fire
AI0/4 hard triggers. 4 of 10 internals are watch (stock-bond +0.24, VIX9D/VIX 1.02, MOVE 83.7, weekly USD) — a rate-tax tape into FOMC, not a crash checklist.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 1 minTue sold duration: SPX 7,585.91 −0.45% with ^TNX at 5.00% while XLC +3.18% and XLV +1.45% took the bid from XLK −1.81%.
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Tue sold duration: SPX 7,585.91 −0.45% with ^TNX at 5.00% while XLC +3.18% and XLV +1.45% took the bid from XLK −1.81%.
Bridge to Today
Wednesday’s 14:00 EDT FOMC/SEP is the next binary after a 5% 10-year and still-dark East-West.
Stocks
Ideas board
TickerRegionCall Conv. Price1dType
IRENIREN Limited USBUY6 41.58-5.13% Growth
BAB.LBabcock International Group EUBUY7.3 10.195+2.61% Value
StocksUS Equity Ideas 1 minIREN BUY
US EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
IRENNEW IREN Limited 6 -5.13%
IREN  GROWTH BUYNEW
IREN Limited • Information Technology
6/10 Conviction
$41.58
▼ -5.13%
Over the next capex-print window, JPM’s OW / $65 says the Nvidia neocloud re-rate still has room after the −27% 3-month fade.
JPM OW $65Nvidia neocloudOM −1.9%−5.1% vs Fri
Fundamentals
4/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
5/10
JPMorgan double-upgrade UW→OW, PT $65 from $46 (2026-09-14) Analyst Richard Choe: top-tier neocloud; pricing $15–20+/W Five-year Nvidia AI-cloud partnership cited as the re-rate hook
Target
$65.00
Invalidation: A cut to FY27 MW guide or JPM PT back ≤$46.

TradingView's price for IREN. It is not the last print in this letter.

IREN · 20d illustrative range
IREN illustrative 20-day price cone from 41.58: 5th pct 28.29, median 40.59, 95th pct 58.24 (vol 77.91% annualised)IREN · 20d illustrative range26.4937.6748.8660.04Illustrative · vol 77.91% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 1 minBAB.L BUY
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
BAB.LNEW Babcock International Group 7.3 +2.61%
BAB.L  VALUE BUYNEW
Babcock International Group • Industrials
7.3/10 Conviction
$10.20
▲ +2.61%
Over the FY27 print, Babcock just reaffirmed guide on nuclear/aviation demand — a UK defence compounder, not a Kier rerun.
FY27 guide reaffirmed£200m buybackeu_fundamentals_gap
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7.5/10
Technicals
6.5/10
RNS 2026-09-16 AGM update: first-5m FY27 in line; outlook unchanged Further £200m buyback; £250m 6-year sterling bond CAD$1.2bn Victoria-class extension; French Air Force preferred bidder
Invalidation: FY27 outlook cut or the buyback cancelled.

TradingView's price for BAB.L. It is not the last print in this letter.

BAB.L · 20d illustrative range
BAB.L illustrative 20-day price cone from 10.195: 5th pct 9.35, median 10.18, 95th pct 11.09 (vol 18.4% annualised)BAB.L · 20d illustrative range9.259.910.5411.19Illustrative · vol 18.4% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 3 minZero BUY: universe still <200 sessions so sma200 is null. HOLD XLE/XLV; EXIT SMH/XBI/XLB already queued PENDING — do not restack.
TREND FOLLOW
Zero BUY: universe still <200 sessions so sma200 is null. HOLD XLE/XLV; EXIT SMH/XBI/XLB already queued PENDING — do not restack.
5 of 17 names above sma50 (XLK/XLE/XLF/XLV/XLC). sma200 unavailable across the book.
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR 6.3 +13.36%
XLV Health Care Select Sector SPDR 5.8 +3.34%
SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF 3.7 -6.97%
XBI SPDR S&P Biotech ETF 3.8 -2.12%
XLB Materials Select Sector SPDR 3.8 -4.61%
XLE  MOMENTUM ETF HOLD 🔥 32-issue streak
Energy Select Sector SPDR
6.3/10 Conviction
$65.93
▲ +13.36%
Over the next EIA/FOMC window, keep XLE — only sleeve with +15.3% 20d RS vs SPY and close > sma50.
ETF sleeve — no issuer fundamental print.No fund-flow print this run.Rule tape only — sma200 still null.Energy/health vs broken SMH/XLB/XBI.vs sma50 +11.4%; vs SPY 20d +15.3%.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
8/10
Invalidation: Close back through sma50 59.19.

TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.

XLE · 20d illustrative range
XLE illustrative 20-day price cone from 65.93: 5th pct 59.46, median 65.8, 95th pct 72.83 (vol 21.89% annualised)XLE · 20d illustrative range58.6663.6568.6473.63Illustrative · vol 21.89% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
XLV  MOMENTUM ETF HOLD 🔥 31-issue streak
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
5.8/10 Conviction
$167.66
▲ +3.34%
Over the next week, hold XLV as the second sleeve still above sma50 with +5.3% 20d RS vs SPY.
ETF sleeve — no issuer fundamental print.No fund-flow print this run.Rule tape only — sma200 still null.Energy/health vs broken SMH/XLB/XBI.vs sma50 +2.1%; vs SPY 20d +5.3%.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6.5/10
Invalidation: Close back through sma50 164.27.

TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.

XLV · 20d illustrative range
XLV illustrative 20-day price cone from 167.66: 5th pct 153.11, median 167.41, 95th pct 183.05 (vol 19.28% annualised)XLV · 20d illustrative range151.31162.49173.67184.85Illustrative · vol 19.28% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
SMH  MOMENTUM ETF EXIT 🔥 32-issue streak
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
3.7/10 Conviction
$542.11
▼ -6.97%
Over the next session, SMH stays an EXIT — close 542.11 is 5.5% below sma50 and PENDING SELL is already queued.
ETF sleeve — no issuer fundamental print.No fund-flow print this run.Rule tape only — sma200 still null.Energy/health vs broken SMH/XLB/XBI.vs sma50 -5.5%; vs SPY 20d -5.0%.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
3/10
Invalidation: Reclaim sma50 573.87 on a closing basis.

TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.

SMH · 20d illustrative range
SMH illustrative 20-day price cone from 542.11: 5th pct 427.81, median 536.96, 95th pct 673.96 (vol 49.04% annualised)SMH · 20d illustrative range413.04504.94596.83688.73Illustrative · vol 49.04% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
XBI  MOMENTUM ETF EXIT 🔥 31-issue streak
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
3.8/10 Conviction
$154.03
▼ -2.12%
Over the next session, EXIT XBI — 154.03 slipped back under sma50 157.54; skip a duplicate PENDING SELL.
ETF sleeve — no issuer fundamental print.No fund-flow print this run.Rule tape only — sma200 still null.Energy/health vs broken SMH/XLB/XBI.vs sma50 -2.2%; vs SPY 20d -0.1%.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
3.5/10
Invalidation: Reclaim sma50 157.54 on a closing basis.

TradingView's price for XBI. It is not the last print in this letter.

XLB  MOMENTUM ETF EXIT 🔥 31-issue streak
Materials Select Sector SPDR
3.8/10 Conviction
$50.73
▼ -4.61%
Over the next session, EXIT XLB — 50.73 is 1.8% below sma50; PENDING SELL already queued.
ETF sleeve — no issuer fundamental print.No fund-flow print this run.Rule tape only — sma200 still null.Energy/health vs broken SMH/XLB/XBI.vs sma50 -1.8%; vs SPY 20d -2.6%.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
3.5/10
Invalidation: Reclaim sma50 51.66 on a closing basis.

TradingView's price for XLB. It is not the last print in this letter.

Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Forex
ForexForex Rebalancing Radar 1 min
FOREX REBALANCING RADAR
Base currency: EUR
Currency vs EUR Short-term Medium-term Long-term
USD 🔥21 SEEK (6) SEEK (4) NEUTRAL (0)
JPY 🔥4 NEUTRAL (0) AVOID (-3) NEUTRAL (0)
GBP 🔥15 NEUTRAL (0) NEUTRAL (0) NEUTRAL (0)
CHF 🔥12 NEUTRAL (0) NEUTRAL (0) NEUTRAL (0)
Suggested rebalancing actions
HOLD USD — Keep the existing USD seek into 14:00 EDT — do not add after the hike prints.
Crypto
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minBTC 75,964 −1.7% and ETH 2,404: Mon’s BTC ETF refill is not a new trend, and ETH ETFs printed a −$142M Sep 15 outflow — HOLD both through FOMC.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
BTC 75,964 −1.7% and ETH 2,404: Mon’s BTC ETF refill is not a new trend, and ETH ETFs printed a −$142M Sep 15 outflow — HOLD both through FOMC.
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
BTC-USD Bitcoin 5.1 -1.65%
ETH-USD Ethereum 4.7 +0.17%
BTC-USD  HOLD 🔥 15-issue streak
Bitcoin
5.1/10 Conviction
$75964.00
▼ -1.65%
Into 14:00 EDT, treat Mon’s ETF refill as a 7d-hole patch — HOLD the core sleeve through the hike.
Mon BTC ETF +$147–160M after a 7d hole.Lookonchain/news.bitcoin.com: BTC ETF inflFOMC Sep 16 is the next binary, not a BTC Hike-week bid is fragile after last week’s75,964 −1.65% vs yesterday’s 77,242 mark.
Fundamentals
5/10
Sentiment / flow
6/10
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
4.5/10
Sep 15 BTC ETF +$147–160M FOMC 2026-09-16
Invalidation: Weekly close back under $70k or a fresh 3-day ETF outflow >$400M.

TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
ETH-USD  HOLD 🔥 14-issue streak
Ethereum
4.7/10 Conviction
$2403.84
▲ +0.17%
Over the next 48h, do not add ETH — Sep 15 spot-ETF −$142M is a risk-off print into FOMC.
SoSoValue: ETH spot ETFs −$142M on Sep 15.ETHA led redemptions; do not add the sleevFOMC today — no ETH-specific print.ETH beta still tracks the hike, not a new 2,403.84 vs prior 2,400s — no breakout.
Fundamentals
4.5/10
Sentiment / flow
4/10
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
5/10
SoSoValue ETH ETF −$142.3M on Sep 15 FOMC 2026-09-16
Invalidation: A second >$150M ETH-ETF outflow day or a break under $2,200.

TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.

Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 3 minUSO 161.86 +3.3% after East-West stayed dark; API’s +7.1 mb build only paused WTI near $104 — HOLD the sleeve into EIA/FOMC.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
USO 161.86 +3.3% after East-West stayed dark; API’s +7.1 mb build only paused WTI near $104 — HOLD the sleeve into EIA/FOMC.
Oil and the 5% 10-year are still an inflationary-boom pair: crude is a supply shock, not a growth bust. If EIA confirms the API build and Warsh hikes, expect a…
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
USO United States Oil Fund 6.8 +3.32%
UNG United States Natural Gas Fund 6.6 +2.03%
URA Global X Uranium ETF 5.4 -1.00%
United States Oil Fund  ENERGY HOLD 🔥 2-issue streak
USO
6.8/10 Conviction
$161.86
▲ +3.32%
Over today’s EIA/FOMC window, keep USO — East-West is still offline and a 7.1 mb API build is a pause, not a restart.
East-West still dark; Hormuz reroute risk COT/positioning empty this run.API +7.1 mb build; EIA still due today.Supply shock, not a demand bust, into FOMCUSO 161.86 +3.32% vs Mon 156.66.
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
7/10
CNA 2026-09-16: API crude +7.1 mb vs 1.6 mb draw expected CNBC 2026-09-15: East-West shutdown puts >4 mb/d at risk Aggregator WTI CL=F 104.02 (Wed tape)
Invalidation: WTI sustains a close below $98 with East-West restart confirmed.

TradingView's price for USO. It is not the last print in this letter.

undefined · 20d illustrative range
undefined illustrative 20-day price cone from 161.86: 5th pct 136.85, median 161.07, 95th pct 189.57 (vol 35.16% annualised)undefined · 20d illustrative range126.11148.46170.81193.16Illustrative · vol 35.16% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
United States Natural Gas Fund  ENERGY HOLD 🔥 3-issue streak
UNG
6.6/10 Conviction
$10.54
▲ +2.03%
Over the next storage print, hold UNG as the power-burn sleeve — no new 48h catalyst to add, no break to cut.
Weather/storage still tight vs last week’sCOT/positioning empty this run.No fresh storage print; ride the existing Power-burn hedge beside the crude shock.UNG 10.54 +2.03% vs Mon 10.33.
Fundamentals
6.5/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
7/10
UNG 10.54 +2.0% vs Mon 10.33 on eodhd No fresh EIA storage surprise this session
Invalidation: UNG loses $9.80 on a closing basis with a bearish storage print.

TradingView's price for UNG. It is not the last print in this letter.

undefined · 20d illustrative range
undefined illustrative 20-day price cone from 10.54: 5th pct 9.26, median 10.51, 95th pct 11.93 (vol 27.34% annualised)undefined · 20d illustrative range9.110.111.0912.09Illustrative · vol 27.34% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Global X Uranium ETF  ENERGY WATCH
URA
5.4/10 Conviction
$41.77
▼ -1.00%
Over the next contract window, watch URA — the nuclear bid is intact but the tape has faded three sessions with no fresh print.
Nuclear build-out intact; no new contract COT/positioning empty this run.No dated 48h uranium catalyst — watch onlyAI-power / utility nuclear is the slow bidURA 41.77 −1.00% vs Mon 42.19; 3-session f
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
4.5/10
URA 41.77 vs 43.53 on Sep 11 — three-session fade No dated 48h uranium contract/utility print this run
Invalidation: URA loses $39 on a closing basis without a new offtake.

TradingView's price for URA. It is not the last print in this letter.

undefined · 20d illustrative range
undefined illustrative 20-day price cone from 41.77: 5th pct 32.77, median 41.35, 95th pct 52.19 (vol 50.2% annualised)undefined · 20d illustrative range31.638.8546.1153.36Illustrative · vol 50.2% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
GeneralTop 5 Risks Right Now 1 min#1 September FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥3.75–4.00%)
TOP 5 RISKS RIGHT NOW
#RiskProbability Impact Trend
1September FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥3.75–4.00%)=HighHigh—
2Hormuz / East-West shutdown turns oil into a growth shock=HighHigh—
3Energy CPI second-round into the October print=MediumHigh—
4USD/JPY air-pocket morphs into disorderly MoF/BoJ policy response=MediumHigh—
5SEP dots price a follow-up hike and the 10y stays ≥5%NEWMediumHigh—
Watch: 14:00 EDT statement + SEP dots
GeneralWhat's Coming Up 1 min2026-09-16 — FOMC decision / Warsh SEP
WHAT'S COMING UP
2026-09-16 FOMC decision / Warsh SEP · risk_top5
2026-09-16 EIA weekly petroleum (API +7.1 mb to confirm) · commodities_outlook
2026-09-18 BoJ rate decision · risk_top5
2026-11-19 BAB.L half-year results · eu_equity_ideas
Stocks
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 10 min30d hit rate 71%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech US
+1.50%
Commodities
+0.00%
Named holdings. 122 smaller positions (29.83%) are off this picture.
Portfolio allocation: Cash 56.28%, GLD 7.29%, BTC-USD 6.95%, ETH-USD 5.75%, TTE.PA 5.35%, USO 5.32%, ASML.AS 4.76%, XOM 4.33%, DBC 3.97%Cash56.28%GLD7.29% · +0%BTC-USD6.95% · +0%ETH-USD5.75% · +0%TTE.PA5.35% · +0%USO5.32%ASML.AS4.76%XOM4.33%DBC3.97%
Tech US
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$101500.06
Cash
$11279.33
P&L
$1500.06 (+1.50%)
Realized P&L
$-3181.65
TWR
+1.79%
Sharpe
0.33
Max DD
-2.39%
Sortino
0.87
Calmar
4.84
Ann. return
+11.58%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions89%
Cash11%
Today's Moves
ActionTickerQtyStatus
BuyIREN5.54dispatched
SellAMZN5.95pending
Current Holdings
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93$8660.66+1.6%
XOM ×129$21812.12+10.8%
UNH ×8.49$3192.62-11.8%
INTC ×14.08$1367.80-77.9%
MSFT ×11.91$5921.94+22.2%
SBUX ×11.63$1122.86-9.4%
CBRE ×8.29$1161.71-6.3%
AMZN ×5.95$1478.77-8.1%
+44 more holdings
Track Record 26 On Track · 16 Lagging · 11 Stopped Out
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
ABNB (2026-09-01)6.5/10+2.6%On Track
ADBE (2026-09-07)6.5/10-3.3%Lagging
ADI (2026-08-21)8/10-2.4%Lagging
AMAT (2026-08-13)7.5/10+0.0%On Track
AMD (2026-08-31)6.5/10+7.3%On Track
AMZN (2026-08-29)7/10-8.1%Stopped Out
APH (2026-09-05)7.5/10-6.2%Lagging
AVGO (2026-08-22)7/10-7.9%Lagging
CRM (2026-09-08)7/10+1.4%On Track
CRWD (2026-08-27)8/10+16.0%On Track
CSCO (2026-08-12)7.5/10-9.1%Stopped Out
CVX (2026-09-08)7/10+9.5%On Track
DELL (2026-09-03)7.5/10+8.8%On Track
DUOL (2026-09-06)7.5/10-0.3%Lagging
ESTC (2026-08-29)8/10-14.8%Stopped Out
FIVE (2026-09-06)7.5/10-6.4%Lagging
FRO (2026-09-08)7/10+27.6%On Track
GAP (2026-08-30)7/10-13.0%Stopped Out
GLW (2026-09-09)6.8/10+0.0%On Track
HAL (2026-09-03)6.5/10-5.2%Lagging
HD (2026-08-19)8/10-9.6%Stopped Out
HOOD (2026-09-04)7/10-11.4%Stopped Out
INTU (2026-08-26)7/10+0.0%On Track
JPM (2026-09-08)6.5/10-1.7%Lagging
MRK (2026-08-20)7/10-5.5%Lagging
MRVL (2026-08-22)8/10+118.6%On Track
MU (2026-08-15)7.5/10-1.3%Lagging
NAT (2026-08-31)7/10+15.9%On Track
NVDA (2026-08-28)7.5/10-1.8%Lagging
OI (2026-08-24)7/10-11.7%Stopped Out
PSX (2026-09-07)7/10+3.9%On Track
QCOM (2026-09-09)7/10+0.0%On Track
RDDT (2026-08-18)7.5/10-8.0%Stopped Out
ROST (2026-08-23)8/10-3.2%Lagging
RTX (2026-09-05)7.5/10-2.6%Lagging
SHEL (2026-08-30)6.5/10+8.8%On Track
SLB (2026-09-01)7/10-9.8%Stopped Out
SNOW (2026-09-04)7.5/10-9.4%Stopped Out
TGT (2026-08-22)7/10-4.0%Lagging
V (2026-08-25)7/10-1.8%Lagging
VLO (2026-09-02)7/10+13.0%On Track
WMT (2026-08-20)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
XOM (2026-08-18)7.5/10+10.8%On Track
JEF (2026-09-10)6.3/10+0.0%On Track
ORCL (2026-09-11)7.2/10-13.6%Stopped Out
ESI (2026-09-13)6.8/10+0.0%On Track
VRTX (2026-09-13)6.9/10+0.0%On Track
ALGT (2026-09-14)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
COP (2026-09-14)7.5/10+0.0%On Track
LMT (2026-09-15)6.6/10+0.0%On Track
LLY (2026-09-15)7.1/10-3.4%Lagging
LHX (2026-09-15)6/10+1.7%On Track
IREN (2026-09-16)6/10+0.0%On Track
Euro Only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$121086.29
Cash
$19530.00
P&L
$21086.29 (+21.09%)
Realized P&L
$-42835.98
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
ActionTickerQtyStatus
BuyBAB.L33.52dispatched
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh mark.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702$23967.39+0.0%
TTE.PA ×364$26944.15+0.0%
UNA.AS ×48.5$2832.95+0.0%
RR.L ×101$1460.08+0.0%
VIE.PA ×48.5$1430.88+0.0%
GLE.PA ×17.29$1402.26+0.0%
MNDI.L ×158$1402.26+0.0%
NWG.L ×191$1346.17+0.0%
+36 more holdings
Track Record 43 On Track · 1 Lagging
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
ABN.AS (2026-08-24)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
ADYEN.AS (2026-09-03)7/10+0.0%On Track
AIR.PA (2026-09-08)7/10+0.0%On Track
ALV.DE (2026-08-29)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
ASML.AS (2026-08-30)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
BAVA.CO (2026-08-23)7/10+0.0%On Track
DEME.BR (2026-08-27)7/10+0.0%On Track
DTE.DE (2026-09-04)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
ENI.MI (2026-09-02)7/10+0.0%On Track
ENR.DE (2026-09-01)7/10+0.0%On Track
EOAN.DE (2026-08-27)7/10+0.0%On Track
EUROB.AT (2026-09-07)7/10+0.0%On Track
EVD.DE (2026-08-22)7/10+0.0%On Track
FGR.PA (2026-08-28)6/10+0.0%On Track
FLS.CO (2026-08-21)6/10+0.0%On Track
INW.MI (2026-08-26)7/10+0.0%On Track
IVG.MI (2026-09-05)7.5/10+0.0%On Track
KGX.DE (2026-09-09)7/10+0.0%On Track
LR.PA (2026-08-31)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
MSLH.L (2026-08-11)6/10+0.0%On Track
MT.AS (2026-09-06)7/10+0.0%On Track
NDX1.DE (2026-09-08)6.8/10+0.0%On Track
NSIS-B.CO (2026-08-21)7/10+0.0%On Track
PUB.PA (2026-09-04)7/10+0.0%On Track
REP.MC (2026-09-02)7/10+0.0%On Track
RWE.DE (2026-09-03)7/10+0.0%On Track
SAN.MC (2026-09-08)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
SAP.DE (2026-08-30)7/10+0.0%On Track
SHEL.L (2026-08-22)6/10+1.2%On Track
SHL.DE (2026-08-24)7/10+0.0%On Track
SIE.DE (2026-08-29)7/10+0.0%On Track
SU.PA (2026-08-31)7/10+0.0%On Track
TEF.MC (2026-09-07)7/10+0.0%On Track
TKA.DE (2026-09-06)7.5/10+0.0%On Track
TTE.PA (2026-09-01)7/10-1.9%Lagging
VOD.L (2026-09-05)7/10+0.0%On Track
RIO.L (2026-09-10)7/10+0.0%On Track
ISP.MI (2026-09-11)6.7/10+0.0%On Track
BP.L (2026-09-12)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
NOVN.SW (2026-09-13)6.2/10+0.0%On Track
TTE.PA (2026-09-14)7.3/10+0.0%On Track
GSK.L (2026-09-15)7/10+0.0%On Track
KIE.L (2026-09-15)7/10+0.0%On Track
BAB.L (2026-09-16)7.3/10+0.0%On Track
Penny Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh mark.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578$3755.55+0.0%
PYPD ×1564$6940.50+0.0%
STXS ×2738$3557.21+0.0%
Track Record 4 On Track
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
BFRI (2026-09-09)5/10+0.0%On Track
INO (2026-08-24)4.5/10+0.0%On Track
OTLK (2026-09-09)4/10+0.0%On Track
PYPD (2026-08-19)6.5/10+6.1%On Track
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$35000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh mark.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65$25000.00+0.0%
IEF ×108$10000.00+0.0%
DBC ×654$20000.00+0.0%
SPLV ×132$10000.00+0.0%
Trend Follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$75717.93
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh mark.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86$5539.52+0.0%
SMH ×5.03$2990.61+0.0%
XLV ×30.27$5207.77+0.0%
XBI ×32$5207.77+0.0%
XLB ×93.53$4954.78+0.0%
Track Record 5 On Track · 5 Lagging
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
ITA (2026-08-21)4/10-5.8%Lagging
QQQ (2026-09-07)3/10+0.0%On Track
SMH (2026-09-09)4.5/10+0.0%On Track
XBI (2026-08-23)8/10-1.4%Lagging
XLB (2026-08-23)8/10-3.1%Lagging
XLE (2026-08-23)8/10+2.6%On Track
XLF (2026-09-08)6/10+0.0%On Track
XLK (2026-09-08)6/10+0.0%On Track
XLRE (2026-08-20)6.5/10-2.6%Lagging
XLV (2026-08-23)8/10-4.3%Lagging
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$28387.04
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
-15.87
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
+0.00%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions72%
Cash28%
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
USO ×206$26795.83+0.0%
GLD ×30.1$11738.20+0.0%
CPER ×136$5372.73+0.0%
SLV ×84.48$4999.97+0.0%
PPLT ×66.63$1111.38+0.0%
BNO ×35.14$1850.57+0.0%
URA ×23.16$967.34-9.3%
UGA ×26.78$3867.19+14.5%
+11 more holdings
Track Record 17 On Track · 4 Lagging
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
BNO (2026-09-07)7/10+0.0%On Track
CANE (2026-09-06)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
COPX (2026-09-08)7/10+0.0%On Track
CORN (2026-08-31)7/10+1.1%On Track
CPER (2026-09-09)7/10+0.0%On Track
GDX (2026-09-04)7/10+0.0%On Track
GLD (2026-08-30)5/10-0.4%Lagging
LIT (2026-08-24)6.5/10-3.7%Lagging
PALL (2026-08-30)4/10+2.1%On Track
PPLT (2026-09-05)7/10+0.0%On Track
SIL (2026-09-04)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
SLV (2026-09-01)6.5/10+2.5%On Track
SLX (2026-09-07)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
SOYB (2026-08-30)6.5/10+2.1%On Track
UGA (2026-09-06)7/10+0.0%On Track
UNG (2026-09-03)6.5/10-0.9%Lagging
URA (2026-09-05)7/10+0.0%On Track
USO (2026-09-09)6.3/10+0.0%On Track
WEAT (2026-08-30)7.5/10-3.1%Lagging
UNG (2026-09-15)6.9/10+0.0%On Track
USO (2026-09-15)7.2/10+0.0%On Track
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$32370.73
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh mark.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5510$35015.45+0.0%
ETH-USD ×14.91$28949.67+0.0%
SOL-USD ×26.81$2795.91+0.0%
XRP-USD ×628$868.24+0.0%
Track Record 3 On Track · 3 Lagging
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
BTC (2026-08-11)6/10+0.0%On Track
BTC-USD (2026-09-09)7/10-1.2%Lagging
ETH (2026-08-11)5/10+0.0%On Track
ETH-USD (2026-09-09)5.8/10-0.3%Lagging
SOL-USD (2026-08-30)6.5/10-1.4%Lagging
XRP-USD (2026-08-29)6/10+0.7%On Track
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +71.00%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
FOMC dot plot
The Summary of Economic Projections ‘dot plot’ is each FOMC participant’s anonymous year-end funds-rate guess, not a committee forecast and not a promise.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures

General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.

Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.

Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.

Morning Alpha • Generated Wed, 16 Sep 2026 07:40:32 GMT • info@gmc-works.com