market_pulse — Prepass and live aggregator calls to data-aggregator-api.gmc-works.com timed out, so pulse, breadth, RS, regime, calendar and prices.json are ok:false. Index, commodity, crypto and ETF levels are Yahoo daily closes. The 10-year and 2-year are the Treasury curve for 9 Oct, not FRED. The dollar tile is the daily ICE index, not weekly DTWEXBGS. FTSEMIB returned HTTP 404. Nikkei has no Monday bar because Japan was shut for Sports Day.
yesterday_retrospective — Friday sector percents are Yahoo closes. GET /movers was not reachable. Monday's KOSPI move is in the bridge, not rewritten as Friday.
us_equity_ideas — Screener unavailable for category=us — fell back to web search. Quote-summary fundamentals for TEVA returned HTTP 401, so market cap, PE, PEG, ROE and revenue growth are null.
eu_equity_ideas — Screener unavailable for category=eu — fell back to web search. Demant's 9 Oct guide hike is outside the 48-hour window. ASML's 12 Oct JPMorgan note did not carry a new price target, so the section publishes zero ideas.
penny_plays — Screener unavailable or empty for category=penny — fell back to web search; penny universe may not be seeded yet. No name under $5 cleared the 48-hour bar and the multi-bagger score, so the section publishes zero ideas.
forex_rebalancing — fx_eurusd.json failed and the squawk-alert feed was unreachable — fell back to central-bank and market web search. Yahoo's EUR and yen daily bars skip 9 Oct, so the 1-day rate of change was not used. EURUSD 1.1207 is versus Friday's 1.1206. The 2-year 4.80% and 10-year 5.24% are the Treasury curve for 9 Oct.
commodities_outlook — prices.json failed. Brent 104.19 is the Yahoo last on the 12 Oct bar, versus Friday's close of 104.72. A 0154 GMT Reuters print of 103.18 differs by about a point; both stay above $100, and the Yahoo last is the published figure. Copper 6.73 is Yahoo. Cotton's Yahoo percent remains a bad prior-bar change and is not used.
crypto_landscape — Crypto quotes on the aggregator timed out. Published prices are Yahoo's Monday 12 Oct prints versus the Saturday 10 Oct bar. Flow figures are the completed 9 Oct Farside totals. No Monday flow print was available.
trend_follow — Aggregator price history timed out. The 50-day, 200-day and 20-day RS figures are computed from Yahoo daily closes through Friday 9 Oct. Five of 18 names are above the 50-day. The buy list is the same four that pass the rules; XLE fails relative strength and is not padded in.
risk_top5 — HY OAS, IG OAS, the equity put/call ratio and the predictions endpoint were not returned. VIX is Yahoo. The 2s10s uses the Treasury 2-year at 4.80% against the Treasury 10-year at 5.24%.
risk_cover_playbook — No regime-engine label was copied because pulse.json failed. MOVE, jobless claims, SOFR, HY OAS and IG OAS were not available and are omitted. Hedge ETFs and the stock-bond correlation use Yahoo daily closes. Breadth is the S&P versus its own 200-day, not the share of members above that average.
portfolio_reality_check — Portfolio Manager at portfolio-manager.gmc-works.com timed out, so no performance, positions or trades were read and no order was sent. hit_rate_last_30d_pct is 53.7, inferred from Yahoo closes on 82 picks first published from 2026-09-12 through 2026-10-08. Five names first seen on 2026-10-09 or 2026-10-10 have no later close and were left out. Invalidation lines were not re-checked against live positions because /positions failed.
executive_summary — blended_pnl_pct and total_value_all_portfolios are null because no book returned invested_amount. The hit rate 53.7 is the Yahoo-inferred 30-day figure, not a Portfolio Manager mark.
Above +50 bp scores +1. Between 0 and +50 scores 0. Below 0 scores −1.
Today's Top Picks
XLK
6.7/10
TEVA
6.3/10
SMH
6.3/10
XLV
6.3/10
BZ=F
6.3/10
Biggest Risk
September CPI on Oct 14 can reopen an October hike
Probability: Medium • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: N/A
Blended P&L: N/A • 30d Hit Rate: +53.70%
Blended P&L withheld: none of the 7 books has a live quote that agrees with its time-weighted return. Hit rate is 44 of 82 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 6.4%, average loss -4.6%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 3 minThe S&P 500's last close is 7811.54, up 0.59%, and the VIX is 14.84, down 0.57 points. The 10-year is 5.24, the 2s10s spread is 0.44, and the ICE dollar is 102.18.
MARKET PULSE
Monday's KOSPI fell 3.65% to 6384.24 while Brent held 104.19, so the US open inherits a chip air-pocket and an oil premium that Friday's equity bid did not settle.
Mixed tape Book Risk-On 3/3 clear
AIThe S&P 500's last close is 7811.54, up 0.59%, and the VIX is 14.84, down 0.57 points. The 10-year is 5.24, the 2s10s spread is the 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year yield.">2s10s spread is 0.44, and the ICE dollar is 102.18.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,811.54
yday 7,811.54
▲ +0.59%
NASDAQ Data
27,366.17
yday 27,366.17
▲ +0.64%
Nasdaq 100 Data
30,883.15
yday 30,883.15
▲ +0.51%
Dow Jones Data
51,654.95
yday 51,654.95
▲ +0.83%
Russell 2K Data
2,806.98
yday 2,806.98
▲ +0.46%
Euro Stoxx 50 Data
6,173.37
yday 6,173.37
▲ +0.76%
STOXX 600 Data
631.55
yday 631.55
▲ +0.97%
DAX Data
25,087.27
yday 25,087.27
▲ +1.13%
CAC 40 Data
7,803.33
yday 7,803.33
▲ +0.95%
FTSE 100 Data
10,552.10
yday 10,552.10
▲ +1.06%
Nikkei 225 Data
69,030.92
yday 69,030.92
▼ -0.02%
Hang Seng Data
24,245.40
yday 24,211.35
▲ +0.14%
VIX 3M Data
17.77
yday 17.77
▼ -1.71%
KOSPI Data
6,384.24
▼ -3.65%
Shanghai Composite Data
3,796.34
▼ -0.46%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
4,208.80
yday 4,216.30
▼ -0.18%
Silver Data
61.12
yday 61.05
▲ +0.73%
Copper Data
6.73
yday 6.69
▲ +1.32%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data
91.44
yday 91.85
▼ -0.45%
Brent Data
104.61
yday 104.72
▼ -0.11%
Natural gas Data
3.18
yday 3.22
▼ -1.34%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
84,093.96
yday 83,050.22
▲ +1.43%
Ether Data
2,568.22
yday 2,502.40
▲ +2.56%
US spot Bitcoin ETFs AI
+21.1 $m
yday +21.1 $m
Inbound
US spot Ether ETFs AI
-56.1 $m
yday -56.1 $m
Outbound
Rates
UST 2y Data
4.80
+5bp
UST 10y Data
5.24
yday 5.24
+2bp
2s10s Data
0.44
yday 0.44 / -0.20
-3bp
Volatility
VIX Data
14.84
yday 14.84
-0.57 (-3.7%)
VIX9D/VIX Data
0.76
yday 0.76
calm
VIX/VIX3M Data
0.84
yday 0.84
calm
Dollar & FX
ICE dollar index Data
102.18
yday 102.21
-0.03 (-0.0%)
EUR/USD Data
1.12
yday 1.12
▲ +0.01%
ICE dollar index, 5-session change Data
0.01
yday 0.27
calm
Breadth
Stock-bond correlation (20-session, SPY vs TLT) Data
0.51
yday 0.51
stress
S&P 500 versus its own 200-day average Data
7.74
calm
Cross-asset
Average pairwise sector correlation (11 SPDRs, 20-session) Data
0.22
yday 0.22
calm
Gold/copper ratio, 5-session change Data
-0.92
yday -1.73
calm
Cover checks
VIX Data
14.84 / 25.00
yday 14.84
Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread Data
0.44 / -0.20
yday 0.44 / -0.20
Not Triggered
S&P 500 drawdown from 52-week high Data
-0.09 / -10.00
yday -0.09 / -10.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AIFriday's equity bid and Monday's copper rise, with Brent still at 104.19 and the 10-year at 5.24, are growth and inflation together. Keep the inflation sleeves on and long bonds at zero into the 14 Oct CPI. Korea's chip drop is a sector air-pocket, not a bust in copper or the S&P
• Cut the trend book's tech add and raise cash before adding a new equity idea.
• Use GLD as the liquid hedge; add SH only after a second hard trigger, not on the first headline.
AINo hard trigger is fired: VIX 14.84, 2s10s at +44bp, and the S&P -0.09% under its 52-week closing high, so the regime stays risk-on. One of seven internals is in stress, the 20-session stock-bond correlation at 0.51. The vol curve is still in contango.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 1 minFriday's S&P 500 rose 0.59% to 7811.54 as software bounced after Thursday's OpenAI scare and health care rose 1.58%. Communication services fell 1.51% on a SpaceX spectrum deal while real e…
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Friday's S&P 500 rose 0.59% to 7811.54 as software bounced after Thursday's OpenAI scare and health care rose 1.58%. Communication services fell 1.51% on a SpaceX spectrum deal while real estate rose 1.86%.
Bridge to Today
Monday's KOSPI already fell 3.65% to 6384.24 on chip selling, which is the open risk before Tuesday's banks and Wednesday's CPI.
UST 10y5.24%
3%6%
Now. The Nasdaq's move on this tape, and the 10-year. Yesterday's close stays in the sentence above.
GeneralConcept of the Day 1 minWhat the 2s10s spread actually measures
CONCEPT OF THE DAY
What the 2s10s spread actually measures
Why today : The tape shows the 2-year at 4.8 and the 10-year at 5.24, so the 2s10s spread is 0.44 and still upward sloping.
The 2s10s spread is the 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year yield. When the number is positive, the longer bond pays more, which is the ordinary shape: lenders want extra yield to lock money up. When it is negative, the curve is inverted, and the short rate sits above the long rate. That shape has often appeared when traders expect policy to ease after a tight spell. It is not a date for a recession and it is not a signal to sell stocks next week. It is the bond market's gap between today's policy rate and the growth it expects later. The next time two Treasury yields sit next to each other in this newsletter, subtract them before reading the higher one on its own.
Stocks
StocksUS Equity Ideas 1 minTEVA BUY
US EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
TEVA=
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries
6.3
+4.71%
TEVAGROWTHBUY🔥 3-issue streak=
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries • Health Care
6.3/10Conviction
$41.10
▲ +4.71%
Over the next few weeks Weltruza is a launch trade: JPMorgan lifted its target to $50 from $40 on 12 Oct and kept Overweight.
JPM PT $50 from $40Overweight keptAt the 1y closing high
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
52-week range
JPMorgan raised its Teva target to $50 from $40 and kept Overweight, citing the clean Weltruza label, in a note published 12 Oct 2026.The FDA approved Weltruza, a once-monthly subcutaneous olanzapine injection, on 9 Oct 2026. The new information today is the target change, not a new price print.
Target
$50.00
Invalidation: US launch slips this quarter, or the ADR loses 39.
TradingView's price for TEVA. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 1 min
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 4 minSMH, XLK, QQQ and XLV still clear the trend rules on Friday's close. 5 of 18 universe ETFs are above their 50-day, and Monday's KOSPI drop is the open risk, not a rule break yet.
TREND FOLLOW
SMH, XLK, QQQ and XLV still clear the trend rules on Friday's close. 5 of 18 universe ETFs are above their 50-day, and Monday's KOSPI drop is the open risk, not a rule break yet.
5 of 18 universe ETFs closed above their 50-day. XLE is above its own 50-day but behind SPY, so it is not a buy. The buy list is tech-heavy plus health care…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
6.3
-0.65%
XLK
Technology Select Sector SPDR
6.7
+0.51%
QQQ
Invesco QQQ
6
+0.49%
XLV
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
6.3
+1.58%
SMHTECHNOLOGYBUY🔥 3-issue streak
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
6.3/10Conviction
$603.33
▼ -0.65%
Into the US open SMH stays a rules buy above its 50-day near 578.24; Monday's KOSPI chip drop is the test, not a rule break.
Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.KOSPI chips fell 3.65%; the 50-day held.Semis still lead 20-day RS versus SPY.Close is above both the 50-day and 200-day
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
8/10
SMH still leads the book's 20-day relative strength on Friday's close.Monday's KOSPI fell 3.65% with Samsung and SK Hynix down more than 4%, which is the open test.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~578.24).
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 2-4 weeks the tech sleeve stays on while XLK holds its 50-day near 189.05 and a positive 20-day gap versus SPY.
Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Software rebound is the 9 Oct sector bid.Mega-cap tech RS versus SPY is positive.Close is above both the 50-day and 200-day
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
8/10
Software led Friday's rebound inside technology.The 50-day remains above the 200-day.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~189.05).
TradingView's price for XLK. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 2-4 weeks QQQ stays a rules buy above its 50-day near 724.52; it is the Nasdaq trend, not a new catalyst.
Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.No catalyst beyond the Nasdaq trend.Broad mega-cap sleeve, not a fresh theme.Close is above both the 50-day and 200-day
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
8/10
The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.51% Friday and still clears both moving averages.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~724.52).
TradingView's price for QQQ. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 2-4 weeks health care stays on the book while XLV holds its 50-day near 168.92; Friday's sector lead is the tell.
Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Health care led the Friday sector tape.A real RS lead, not a failed-rule pad.Close is above both the 50-day and 200-day
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
7/10
Health care was a Friday leader, up 1.58%, and is the non-tech name that clears the rules.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~168.92).
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minBitcoin's Monday print is 84093.96, up 1.43% from Saturday, after spot bitcoin ETFs took in only $21.1m on 9 Oct. That does not repair the week's $678.9m outflow.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Bitcoin's Monday print is 84093.96, up 1.43% from Saturday, after spot bitcoin ETFs took in only $21.1m on 9 Oct. That does not repair the week's $678.9m outflow.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
4
+1.43%
ETH-USD
Ether
3.5
+2.56%
BTC-USDHOLD🔥 45-issue streak
Bitcoin
4/10Conviction
$84093.96
▲ +1.43%
Into the next flow print, do not add bitcoin: Monday's bounce to 84093.96 does not repair a week of ETF outflows still at $678.9m.
No protocol cash-flow metric scored.Bitcoin ETFs +$21.1m on 9 Oct.Inflow ends two outflow days; week is red.A $21.1m day does not repair the week.Monday print is 1.43% above Saturday.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
4/10
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
3/10
Technicals
5/10
US spot bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of $21.1m on 9 Oct, after -$484.9m on 7 Oct and -$244.1m on 8 Oct. No Monday flow print is out yet.
Invalidation: A full week of bitcoin ETF inflows, not one $21m day.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Leave ether on watch: Friday's -$56.1m was the ninth straight ether-ETF outflow, and Monday's bounce does not change that.
No protocol cash-flow metric scored.Ether ETFs -$56.1m on 9 Oct, ninth day.The dated event is another outflow.Nine outflow days is not an adoption bid.Monday print is 2.56% above Saturday.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
3/10
Catalyst
3/10
Narrative
3/10
Technicals
5/10
Ether ETFs lost $56.1m on 9 Oct, the ninth straight outflow day, all of it from BlackRock's ETHA.
Invalidation: A settled ether-ETF inflow day, not a revision.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 3 minBrent is 104.19, still above $100 after a choppy Monday, and COMEX copper is 6.73, up 1.32% on Chile supply risk. The crude premium and the copper bid are not the same trade into Wednesday'…
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Brent is 104.19, still above $100 after a choppy Monday, and COMEX copper is 6.73, up 1.32% on Chile supply risk. The crude premium and the copper bid are not the same trade into Wednesday's CPI.
Brent holding above $100 with the 10-year at 5.24% is still an inflation premium, and copper's Monday rise is a Chile supply bid, not a demand boom. If…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
HG=F
Copper
6.3
+1.32%
BZ=F
Brent
6.3
-0.51%
CopperINDUSTRIAL METALWATCH
HG=F
6.3/10Conviction
$6.73
▲ +1.32%
Over the next sessions the Chile supply bid can hold copper: Centinela talks resume Tuesday and El Teniente halted after a fatal avalanche.
Centinela strike and an El Teniente halt.No COT positioning print this run.Talks resume Tuesday; avalanche was SundayA Chile supply bid, not a demand boom.COMEX copper 6.73, up 1.32% from Friday.
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
Antofagasta said Saturday that Centinela talks with two unions resume Tuesday under regional mediation, and the strike is still on.Unions said on 9 Oct that November output at Centinela could fall by about half.Two workers died Sunday in a snow avalanche at Codelco's El Teniente, where open-pit work was already halted.
Invalidation: HG=F closes back under 6.50.
TradingView's price for HG=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
Into Wednesday's CPI, Brent at 104.19 is still an inflation tape; Monday's slip on Russian-export talk did not break the $100 shelf.
Hormuz premium still holds Brent above $10No COT positioning print this run.Monday slip on export talk; still above $1Inflation premium, not a demand boom.Yahoo last 104.19 is still holding the $10
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
Reuters reported Monday that Brent slipped from the session highs on confusion over Russian energy exports, after strikes on Gulf shipping and airports.The Yahoo last is 104.19, still above $100, with September CPI due on 2026-10-14.
Invalidation: Brent closes under 100 for two sessions.
TradingView's price for BZ=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 5 min30d hit rate 54%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
No book with a live quote is included in this bar.
Tech US
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
25 On Track · 13 Lagging · 3 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
DELL (2026-09-12)
6.2/10
+9.7%
On Track
ESI (2026-09-13)
6.8/10
+13.0%
On Track
VRTX (2026-09-13)
6.9/10
-1.8%
Lagging
ALGT (2026-09-14)
6.5/10
-2.6%
Lagging
COP (2026-09-14)
7.5/10
-1.9%
Lagging
LMT (2026-09-15)
6.6/10
-4.5%
Lagging
CRWD (2026-09-15)
7.1/10
+13.4%
On Track
LLY (2026-09-15)
7.1/10
+3.8%
On Track
LHX (2026-09-15)
6/10
-5.1%
Lagging
IREN (2026-09-16)
6/10
-17.4%
Stopped Out
LITE (2026-09-17)
7/10
+23.5%
On Track
HAE (2026-09-18)
6.8/10
+9.5%
On Track
JBHT (2026-09-18)
6.5/10
-2.1%
Lagging
LRCX (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
+5.5%
On Track
COIN (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
-10.8%
Stopped Out
ACN (2026-09-20)
7/10
+12.3%
On Track
TLN (2026-09-20)
6.8/10
+26.2%
On Track
META (2026-09-22)
7.4/10
-2.4%
Lagging
ARHS (2026-09-22)
6.2/10
+4.3%
On Track
SNDK (2026-09-23)
7.3/10
-12.9%
Stopped Out
AAPL (2026-09-23)
6.5/10
-0.1%
Lagging
DG (2026-09-25)
7/10
+1.9%
On Track
COST (2026-09-25)
6.8/10
+2.6%
On Track
SNPS (2026-09-26)
7/10
+22.1%
On Track
JCI (2026-09-26)
7/10
+5.7%
On Track
SNX (2026-09-28)
7.3/10
+6.5%
On Track
TFX (2026-09-28)
6.3/10
-1.8%
Lagging
NVDA (2026-09-29)
6.2/10
+0.9%
On Track
JNJ (2026-09-30)
6.2/10
-1.3%
Lagging
NFLX (2026-09-30)
7/10
+1.0%
On Track
BKR (2026-09-30)
6.3/10
+3.3%
On Track
NICE (2026-09-30)
6.7/10
+5.6%
On Track
CEG (2026-10-01)
6.5/10
+15.1%
On Track
MU (2026-10-01)
6.8/10
-6.2%
Lagging
OXY (2026-10-02)
6.8/10
+3.5%
On Track
ABNB (2026-10-02)
6/10
+2.1%
On Track
HPE (2026-10-03)
6.6/10
+7.5%
On Track
PTC (2026-10-05)
7.7/10
+1.1%
On Track
MSFT (2026-10-06)
7.25/10
+1.1%
On Track
MRVL (2026-10-07)
7.5/10
-3.3%
Lagging
LEVI (2026-10-08)
7/10
-1.8%
Lagging
Euro Only
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
13 On Track · 12 Lagging · 2 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BP.L (2026-09-12)
6.5/10
+1.8%
On Track
NOVN.SW (2026-09-13)
6.2/10
+4.9%
On Track
TTE.PA (2026-09-14)
7.3/10
-1.5%
Lagging
GSK.L (2026-09-15)
7/10
-5.4%
Lagging
KIE.L (2026-09-15)
7/10
+16.9%
On Track
BAB.L (2026-09-16)
7.3/10
-9.7%
Stopped Out
EXENS.PA (2026-09-17)
7.5/10
-0.8%
Lagging
SOI.PA (2026-09-17)
6.8/10
+11.1%
On Track
DRX.L (2026-09-18)
7/10
-4.1%
Lagging
NXT.L (2026-09-18)
7.2/10
+3.9%
On Track
ORSTED.CO (2026-09-19)
6.8/10
-3.5%
Lagging
GLE.PA (2026-09-21)
6.7/10
-13.5%
Stopped Out
BEZ.DE (2026-09-21)
7/10
+9.0%
On Track
TUI1.DE (2026-09-22)
6.8/10
+3.1%
On Track
SAVE.ST (2026-09-22)
6/10
+0.9%
On Track
SAN.MC (2026-09-23)
7/10
-3.0%
Lagging
KCR.HE (2026-09-25)
7.3/10
-4.8%
Lagging
ATE.PA (2026-09-26)
7.3/10
+0.4%
On Track
GLEN.L (2026-09-27)
6.3/10
+6.5%
On Track
KLR.L (2026-09-28)
7/10
-4.1%
Lagging
CRDA.L (2026-09-28)
6/10
+4.2%
On Track
SAF.PA (2026-10-01)
6.5/10
-3.1%
Lagging
STLAP.PA (2026-10-03)
6.5/10
+2.3%
On Track
GMAB.CO (2026-10-07)
7/10
-0.6%
Lagging
HOME.MC (2026-10-07)
6.5/10
-3.4%
Lagging
BPT.L (2026-10-08)
8/10
+6.4%
On Track
TSCO.L (2026-10-09)
7.2/10
-0.1%
Lagging
Penny Plays
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
2 On Track · 3 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
GLD (2026-09-23)
6/10
-2.1%
Lagging
TLT (2026-09-23)
6/10
-3.1%
Lagging
IEF (2026-09-23)
6/10
-0.9%
Lagging
DBC (2026-09-23)
5/10
+0.2%
On Track
SPLV (2026-09-23)
6/10
+1.1%
On Track
Trend Follow
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
1 On Track · 1 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
XLK (2026-09-28)
6.3/10
+2.2%
On Track
SMH (2026-10-03)
7/10
-4.8%
Lagging
Commodities
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
3 On Track · 2 Lagging · 2 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
UNG (2026-09-15)
6.9/10
+4.5%
On Track
USO (2026-09-15)
7.2/10
-8.4%
Stopped Out
WEAT (2026-09-17)
6.8/10
-7.0%
Lagging
CPER (2026-09-18)
6.8/10
+0.2%
On Track
SLV (2026-09-19)
7/10
-8.1%
Stopped Out
CORN (2026-09-22)
6.8/10
-7.8%
Lagging
BNO (2026-10-01)
6.5/10
+1.6%
On Track
Crypto
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +53.70%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
2s10s spread
The 2s10s spread is the 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year yield.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.