market_pulse — Prepass and live aggregator calls to data-aggregator-api.gmc-works.com failed, so pulse, breadth, RS, regime, calendar and prices.json are ok:false. Index, commodity, crypto and ETF levels are Yahoo daily closes. The 10-year, 2-year and 30-year are the Treasury curve for 9 Oct because the cash market was shut on 12 Oct. The dollar tile is the daily ICE index, not weekly DTWEXBGS. FTSEMIB was not returned. Nikkei has no Monday bar because Japan was shut for Sports Day. Yahoo's EURUSD series skips 9-12 Oct, so the EUR/USD change uses Investrade's Monday close of 1.1158 against the Yahoo 13 Oct print.
yesterday_retrospective — Monday sector percents are Yahoo closes. GET /movers was not reachable. The SOX -2.7% figure is Investrade's, not a Yahoo print. Tuesday's KOSPI move is in the bridge, not rewritten as Monday.
us_equity_ideas — Screener unavailable for category=us — fell back to web search. Quote-summary fundamentals were not returned, so market cap, PE, PEG, ROE and revenue growth are null.
eu_equity_ideas — Screener unavailable for category=eu — fell back to web search. Jefferies upgraded Nexans on 12 Oct and LVMH's Q3 miss is in the Monday recap, but Yahoo has no 12 Oct bar for NEX.PA or MC.PA, so neither price is published and the section has zero ideas.
penny_plays — Screener unavailable or empty for category=penny — fell back to web search; penny universe may not be seeded yet. No name under $5 cleared the multi-bagger bar, so the section publishes zero ideas.
forex_rebalancing — fx_eurusd.json failed and the squawk-alert feed was unreachable — fell back to the Monday recap and Tuesday FX headlines. Yahoo's EUR and yen daily bars skip 9-12 Oct, so the 1-day rate of change was not taken from that gap. EURUSD 1.1183 is the 13 Oct Yahoo print versus Monday's 1.1158 close. The 2-year 4.80% and 10-year 5.24% are the Treasury curve for 9 Oct.
commodities_outlook — prices.json failed. Brent 105.13 is the Yahoo last on the 13 Oct bar, versus Monday's settle of 106.65. Copper 6.76 is Yahoo. Gold, silver, natural gas, platinum and the grains were checked and did not clear a better catalyst than Brent and copper.
crypto_landscape — Crypto quotes on the aggregator failed. Published prices are Yahoo prints. The BTC and ETH series have no 12 Oct bar, so the percent is versus the 11 Oct bar and is not a one-session change. Flow figures are the 12 Oct SoSoValue totals cited by CryptoBriefing and CoinGabbar.
trend_follow — Aggregator price history failed. The 50-day, 200-day and 20-day RS figures are computed from Yahoo daily closes through Monday 12 Oct. 6 of 18 names are above the 50-day. The buy list is the five that pass the rules, including XLE, which cleared relative strength on Monday's close.
risk_top5 — HY OAS, IG OAS, the equity put/call ratio and the predictions endpoint were not returned. VIX is Yahoo. The 2s10s uses the Treasury 2-year at 4.80% against the Treasury 10-year at 5.24% for 9 Oct.
risk_cover_playbook — No regime-engine label was copied because pulse.json failed. MOVE, jobless claims, SOFR, HY OAS and IG OAS were not available and are omitted. Hedge ETFs and the stock-bond correlation use Yahoo daily closes. Breadth is the S&P versus its own 200-day, not the share of members above that average.
portfolio_reality_check — Portfolio Manager at portfolio-manager.gmc-works.com timed out, so no performance, positions or trades were read and no order was sent. hit_rate_last_30d_pct is 58.2, from Yahoo closes on 91 picks first published on or after 2026-09-13. Invalidation lines were not re-checked against live positions because /positions failed.
executive_summary — blended_pnl_pct and total_value_all_portfolios are null because no book returned invested_amount. The hit rate 58.2 is the Yahoo-inferred 30-day figure, not a Portfolio Manager mark.
September CPI on Oct 14 can reopen an October hike
Probability: Medium • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: N/A
Blended P&L: N/A • 30d Hit Rate: +58.20%
Blended P&L withheld: none of the 7 books has a live quote that agrees with its time-weighted return. Hit rate is 53 of 91 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 5.3%, average loss -6.0%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 4 minThe S&P 500's last close is 7807.24, down 0.06%, and the VIX is 15.21, up 0.37 points. The 10-year is still 5.24, the 2s10s spread is 0.44, and the ICE dollar is 102.34.
MARKET PULSE
Tuesday's KOSPI is 6035.35, down 5.46%, and Brent is 105.13, so the US open inherits a chip air-pocket with crude still bid into CPI.
Mixed tape Book Risk-On 3/3 clear
AIThe S&P 500's last close is 7807.24, down 0.06%, and the VIX is 15.21, up 0.37 points. The 10-year is still 5.24, the 2s10s spread is 0.44, and the ICE dollar is 102.34.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,807.24
yday 7,811.54
▼ -0.06%
NASDAQ Data
27,245.90
yday 27,366.17
▼ -0.44%
Nasdaq 100 Data
30,664.70
yday 30,883.15
▼ -0.71%
Dow Jones Data
51,850.55
yday 51,654.95
▲ +0.38%
Russell 2K Data
2,794.48
yday 2,806.98
▼ -0.45%
Euro Stoxx 50 Data
6,201.21
yday 6,173.37
▲ +0.45%
STOXX 600 Data
635.65
yday 631.55
▲ +0.65%
DAX Data
25,277.68
yday 25,087.27
▲ +0.76%
CAC 40 Data
7,832.88
yday 7,803.33
▲ +0.38%
FTSE 100 Data
10,656.30
yday 10,552.10
▲ +0.99%
Nikkei 225 Data
67,777.52
yday 69,030.92
▼ -1.82%
Hang Seng Data
24,253.15
yday 24,245.40
▼ -0.07%
VIX 3M Data
17.93
yday 17.77
▲ +0.90%
KOSPI Data
6,035.35
yday 6,384.24
▼ -5.46%
Shanghai Composite Data
3,799.50
yday 3,796.34
▲ +0.06%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
4,214.60
yday 4,208.80
▲ +0.57%
Silver Data
60.75
yday 61.12
▲ +1.01%
Copper Data
6.76
yday 6.73
▲ +0.92%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data
92.23
yday 91.44
▼ -1.61%
Brent Data
105.13
yday 104.61
▼ -1.43%
Natural gas Data
3.17
yday 3.18
▲ +0.22%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
83,628.54
yday 84,093.96
▼ -0.06%
Ether Data
2,526.31
yday 2,568.22
▼ -0.33%
US spot Bitcoin ETFs AI
-65.4 $m
yday +21.1 $m
Outbound
US spot Ether ETFs AI
-85.4 $m
yday -56.1 $m
Outbound
Rates
UST 2y Data
4.80
yday 4.80
+5bp
UST 10y Data
5.24
yday 5.24
+2bp
UST 30y Data
5.60
unch
2s10s Data
0.44
yday 0.44
-3bp
Volatility
VIX Data
15.21
yday 14.84
+0.37 (+2.5%)
VIX9D/VIX Data
0.77
yday 0.76
calm
VIX/VIX3M Data
0.85
yday 0.84
calm
Dollar & FX
ICE dollar index Data
102.34
yday 102.18
-0.24 (-0.2%)
EUR/USD Data
1.12
yday 1.12
▲ +0.22%
ICE dollar index, 5-session change Data
0.50
yday 0.01
calm
Breadth
Stock-bond correlation (20-session, SPY vs TLT) Data
0.52
yday 0.51
stress
S&P 500 versus its own 200-day average Data
7.61
yday 7.74
calm
Cross-asset
Average pairwise sector correlation (11 SPDRs, 20-session) Data
0.26
yday 0.22
calm
Gold/copper ratio, 5-session change Data
-1.81
yday -0.92
calm
Cover checks
VIX Data
15.21 / 25.00
yday 14.84
Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread Data
0.44 / -0.20
yday 0.44
Not Triggered
S&P 500 drawdown from 52-week high Data
-0.15 / -10.00
yday -0.09 / -10.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AIMonday's equity tape was flat-to-split and copper is 6.76, with Brent still at 105.13 and the 10-year at 5.24. That is growth holding up and inflation still bid. Keep the inflation sleeves on and long bonds at zero into the 14 Oct CPI. Korea's chip drop is a sector air-pocket, no
• Cut the trend book's tech add and raise cash before adding a new equity idea.
• Use GLD as the liquid hedge; add SH only after a second hard trigger, not on the first headline.
AINo hard trigger is fired: VIX 15.21, 2s10s at +44bp, and the S&P -0.15% under its 52-week closing high, so the regime stays risk-on. One of seven internals is in stress, the 20-session stock-bond correlation at 0.52. The vol curve is still in contango. Tuesday's KOSPI drop is a chip air-pocket, not a US trigger.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 1 minMonday's S&P 500 closed at 7807.24, down 0.06%, as Investrade put the SOX down 2.7% on CXMT memory competition while energy rose 1.43%.
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Monday's S&P 500 closed at 7807.24, down 0.06%, as Investrade put the SOX down 2.7% on CXMT memory competition while energy rose 1.43%.
Bridge to Today
Tuesday's KOSPI last is 6035.35, down 5.46%, after an intraday break below 6000, ahead of today's bank reports and Wednesday's CPI.
UST 10y5.24%
3%6%
Now. The Nasdaq's move on this tape, and the 10-year. Yesterday's close stays in the sentence above.
Over the next few weeks the BofA double upgrade is the marker: the target is $285, from $160, and Monday's close is 233.92.
BofA PT $285 from $160Buy from Underperform
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
52-week range
Bank of America double-upgraded Salesforce to Buy from Underperform and raised its target to $285 from $160 on 12 Oct 2026.Analyst Tal Liani said large enterprises are unlikely to rip out the systems that hold their data and workflows, and that AI should deepen dependence on them.
Target
$285.00
Invalidation: Close back under 220, or the $285 target is cut.
TradingView's price for CRM. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 1 min
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 4 minXLE joins SMH, XLK, QQQ and XLV on the buy list. 6 of 18 universe ETFs are above their 50-day, and Tuesday's KOSPI drop is the open risk, not a rule break yet.
TREND FOLLOW
XLE joins SMH, XLK, QQQ and XLV on the buy list. 6 of 18 universe ETFs are above their 50-day, and Tuesday's KOSPI drop is the open risk, not a rule break yet.
6 of 18 universe ETFs closed above their 50-day. XLE now clears relative strength and is the non-tech add. The other four buys are the tech cluster plus health…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
6
-2.05%
XLK
Technology Select Sector SPDR
6.3
-1.22%
QQQ
Invesco QQQ
6
-0.70%
XLV
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
6
+0.69%
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR
6.7
+1.43%
SMHTECHNOLOGYBUY🔥 4-issue streak
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
6/10Conviction
$590.99
▼ -2.05%
Into the US open SMH stays a rules buy above its 50-day near 579.25; Tuesday's KOSPI drop is the test, not a rule break.
Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.KOSPI chips fell again; the 50-day held.Semis still lead 20-day RS versus SPY.Close is above both the 50-day and 200-day
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
7/10
SMH still leads the book's 20-day relative strength on Monday's close.Tuesday's KOSPI last is 6035.35, down 5.46%, which is the open test.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~579.25).
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 2-4 weeks the tech sleeve stays on while XLK holds its 50-day near 189.32 and a positive 20-day gap versus SPY.
Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Monday tech lagged; the 50-day held.Mega-cap tech RS versus SPY is positive.Close is above both the 50-day and 200-day
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
8/10
Monday's XLK decline did not break the 50-day.The 50-day remains above the 200-day.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~189.32).
TradingView's price for XLK. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 2-4 weeks QQQ stays a rules buy above its 50-day near 725.18; it is the Nasdaq trend, not a new catalyst.
Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.No catalyst beyond the Nasdaq trend.Broad mega-cap sleeve, not a fresh theme.Close is above both the 50-day and 200-day
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
7/10
The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.71% Monday and still clears both moving averages.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~725.18).
TradingView's price for QQQ. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 2-4 weeks health care stays on the book while XLV holds its 50-day near 168.67.
Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Health care rose Monday; no new catalyst.Clears the rules without being a tech pad.Close is above both the 50-day and 200-day
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
7/10
Health care rose on Monday and is the other non-tech name that clears the rules.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~168.67).
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 2-4 weeks energy stays on the book while XLE holds its 50-day near 62.55; Monday's lead is the tell.
Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Energy led Monday as Brent settled 106.65.The non-tech sleeve that now clears RS.Close is 5.54% above a rising 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
7/10
Energy was Monday's leader as Brent settled at 106.65.XLE's 20-day gap versus SPY turned positive on that close.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~62.55).
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minBitcoin's latest print is 83628.54 after spot bitcoin ETFs lost $65.4m on 12 Oct, all of it from IBIT. Ether ETFs lost $85.4m the same day.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Bitcoin's latest print is 83628.54 after spot bitcoin ETFs lost $65.4m on 12 Oct, all of it from IBIT. Ether ETFs lost $85.4m the same day.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
3.8
-0.06%
ETH-USD
Ether
3.5
-0.33%
BTC-USDHOLD🔥 46-issue streak
Bitcoin
3.8/10Conviction
$83628.54
▼ -0.06%
Into the next flow print, do not add bitcoin: the latest print 83628.54 follows a $65.4m ETF outflow on 12 Oct, all of it from IBIT.
No protocol cash-flow metric scored.Bitcoin ETFs -$65.4m on 12 Oct, all IBIT.Outflow is smaller than 7 Oct's $484.9m.One red day does not repair the week.Latest print is flat versus the 11 Oct bar
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
3/10
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
3/10
Technicals
5/10
US spot bitcoin ETFs had a net outflow of $65.4m on 12 Oct, and IBIT was the only fund that moved.
Invalidation: A full week of bitcoin ETF inflows, not one red day.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Leave ether on watch: Friday-to-Monday was not the repair, and ether ETFs lost another $85.4m on 12 Oct.
No protocol cash-flow metric scored.Ether ETFs -$85.4m on 12 Oct.Eighth straight October outflow day.Another outflow is not an adoption bid.Latest print is flat versus the 11 Oct bar
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
3/10
Catalyst
3/10
Narrative
3/10
Technicals
5/10
Ether ETFs lost $85.4m on 12 Oct, the eighth straight outflow day in October, led by BlackRock's ETHA.
Invalidation: A settled ether-ETF inflow day, not a revision.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 2 minBrent is 105.13, still above $100 after Tuesday's slip from Monday's 106.65 settle, and COMEX copper is 6.76, up 0.92%. The crude premium and the copper bid are not the same trade into Wedn…
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Brent is 105.13, still above $100 after Tuesday's slip from Monday's 106.65 settle, and COMEX copper is 6.76, up 0.92%. The crude premium and the copper bid are not the same trade into Wednesday's CPI.
Brent at 105.13 with the 10-year still at 5.24 is an inflation premium, and copper at 6.76 is a Chile supply bid, not a demand boom. If Wednesday's CPI is hot,…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
HG=F
Copper
6.2
+0.92%
BZ=F
Brent
6.2
-1.43%
CopperINDUSTRIAL METALWATCH🔥 2-issue streak
HG=F
6.2/10Conviction
$6.76
▲ +0.92%
Over the next sessions the Chile supply bid can hold copper: Centinela talks are the Tuesday event and El Teniente is still partly halted.
Centinela strike and an El Teniente halt.No COT positioning print this run.Talks are the Tuesday event; halt stands.A Chile supply bid, not a demand boom.COMEX copper 6.76, up 0.92% from Monday.
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
Reuters reported Tuesday that Codelco partly suspended El Teniente after a landslide and that Centinela talks with two unions were set to resume with the strike still on.The same report said BMI raised its 2026 average copper forecast to $13,500 a ton from $12,700.
Invalidation: HG=F closes back under 6.50.
TradingView's price for HG=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
Into Wednesday's CPI, Brent at 105.13 is still an inflation tape; Tuesday's slip did not break the $100 shelf after Monday's 106.65 settle.
Monday settle 106.65; still above $100.No COT positioning print this run.Tuesday slip after the Saudi-airport bid.Inflation premium into Wednesday's CPI.Yahoo last 105.13 is holding the $100 shel
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
Investrade said Brent settled Monday at 106.65, up 1.93, after attacks on Saudi airports outweighed talk of extra Russian diesel.The Yahoo last on the Tuesday bar is 105.13, still above $100, with September CPI due on 2026-10-14.
Invalidation: Brent closes under 100 for two sessions.
TradingView's price for BZ=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 5 min30d hit rate 58%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
No book with a live quote is included in this bar.
Tech US
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
29 On Track · 9 Lagging · 4 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
ESI (2026-09-13)
6.8/10
+13.4%
On Track
VRTX (2026-09-13)
6.9/10
-2.4%
Lagging
ALGT (2026-09-14)
6.5/10
-5.0%
Lagging
COP (2026-09-14)
7.5/10
+0.7%
On Track
LMT (2026-09-15)
6.6/10
-4.0%
Lagging
CRWD (2026-09-15)
7.1/10
+8.5%
On Track
LLY (2026-09-15)
7.1/10
+4.1%
On Track
LHX (2026-09-15)
6/10
-4.6%
Lagging
IREN (2026-09-16)
6/10
-18.4%
Stopped Out
LITE (2026-09-17)
7/10
+11.4%
On Track
HAE (2026-09-18)
6.8/10
+12.6%
On Track
JBHT (2026-09-18)
6.5/10
-2.5%
Lagging
LRCX (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
+2.5%
On Track
COIN (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
-10.3%
Stopped Out
ACN (2026-09-20)
7/10
+15.4%
On Track
TLN (2026-09-20)
6.8/10
+26.6%
On Track
META (2026-09-22)
7.4/10
+0.9%
On Track
ARHS (2026-09-22)
6.2/10
+2.3%
On Track
SNDK (2026-09-23)
7.3/10
-18.1%
Stopped Out
AAPL (2026-09-23)
6.5/10
+1.2%
On Track
DG (2026-09-25)
7/10
+1.9%
On Track
COST (2026-09-25)
6.8/10
+4.0%
On Track
SNPS (2026-09-26)
7/10
+20.3%
On Track
JCI (2026-09-26)
7/10
+4.4%
On Track
SNX (2026-09-28)
7.3/10
+6.3%
On Track
TFX (2026-09-28)
6.3/10
-1.3%
Lagging
NVDA (2026-09-29)
6.2/10
-0.4%
Lagging
JNJ (2026-09-30)
6.2/10
-0.4%
Lagging
NFLX (2026-09-30)
7/10
+1.5%
On Track
BKR (2026-09-30)
6.3/10
+2.3%
On Track
NICE (2026-09-30)
6.7/10
+3.4%
On Track
CEG (2026-10-01)
6.5/10
+13.5%
On Track
MU (2026-10-01)
6.8/10
-9.9%
Stopped Out
OXY (2026-10-02)
6.8/10
+5.3%
On Track
ABNB (2026-10-02)
6/10
+0.7%
On Track
HPE (2026-10-03)
6.6/10
+2.9%
On Track
PTC (2026-10-05)
7.7/10
+1.1%
On Track
MSFT (2026-10-06)
7.25/10
+2.2%
On Track
MRVL (2026-10-07)
7.5/10
-6.6%
Lagging
LEVI (2026-10-08)
7/10
+1.0%
On Track
HUM (2026-10-09)
7/10
+0.4%
On Track
TEVA (2026-10-10)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
Euro Only
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
15 On Track · 10 Lagging · 2 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
NOVN.SW (2026-09-13)
6.2/10
+4.5%
On Track
TTE.PA (2026-09-14)
7.3/10
-0.1%
Lagging
GSK.L (2026-09-15)
7/10
-5.6%
Lagging
KIE.L (2026-09-15)
7/10
+15.2%
On Track
BAB.L (2026-09-16)
7.3/10
-10.6%
Stopped Out
EXENS.PA (2026-09-17)
7.5/10
-0.8%
Lagging
SOI.PA (2026-09-17)
6.8/10
+12.9%
On Track
DRX.L (2026-09-18)
7/10
-4.5%
Lagging
NXT.L (2026-09-18)
7.2/10
+3.5%
On Track
ORSTED.CO (2026-09-19)
6.8/10
-3.6%
Lagging
GLE.PA (2026-09-21)
6.7/10
-13.7%
Stopped Out
BEZ.DE (2026-09-21)
7/10
+9.4%
On Track
TUI1.DE (2026-09-22)
6.8/10
+2.5%
On Track
SAVE.ST (2026-09-22)
6/10
+1.2%
On Track
SAN.MC (2026-09-23)
7/10
-4.7%
Lagging
KCR.HE (2026-09-25)
7.3/10
-5.6%
Lagging
ATE.PA (2026-09-26)
7.3/10
+0.9%
On Track
GLEN.L (2026-09-27)
6.3/10
+6.0%
On Track
KLR.L (2026-09-28)
7/10
-5.1%
Lagging
CRDA.L (2026-09-28)
6/10
+4.2%
On Track
SAF.PA (2026-10-01)
6.5/10
-3.3%
Lagging
STLAP.PA (2026-10-03)
6.5/10
+0.5%
On Track
GMAB.CO (2026-10-07)
7/10
+1.4%
On Track
HOME.MC (2026-10-07)
6.5/10
-3.6%
Lagging
BPT.L (2026-10-08)
8/10
+5.0%
On Track
TSCO.L (2026-10-09)
7.2/10
+0.0%
On Track
DEMANT.CO (2026-10-10)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
Penny Plays
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
1 Lagging · 2 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BFRI (2026-09-17)
5/10
-25.4%
Stopped Out
INO (2026-09-28)
5/10
-5.1%
Lagging
LXRX (2026-09-29)
5/10
-12.2%
Stopped Out
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
1 On Track · 4 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
GLD (2026-09-13)
7/10
-2.7%
Lagging
IEF (2026-09-13)
5/10
-1.3%
Lagging
DBC (2026-09-13)
7/10
+0.5%
On Track
SPLV (2026-09-13)
5/10
-1.2%
Lagging
TLT (2026-09-23)
6/10
-2.6%
Lagging
Trend Follow
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
4 On Track · 2 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
SMH (2026-09-18)
3.3/10
+3.1%
On Track
XBI (2026-09-18)
3.3/10
-3.4%
Lagging
XLB (2026-09-18)
3.3/10
-0.7%
Lagging
XLK (2026-09-28)
6.3/10
+0.9%
On Track
QQQ (2026-10-10)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
XLV (2026-10-10)
6.7/10
+0.0%
On Track
Commodities
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
3 On Track · 3 Lagging · 1 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
UNG (2026-09-15)
6.9/10
+3.6%
On Track
USO (2026-09-15)
7.2/10
-6.7%
Lagging
WEAT (2026-09-17)
6.8/10
-6.8%
Lagging
CPER (2026-09-18)
6.8/10
+1.0%
On Track
SLV (2026-09-19)
7/10
-8.8%
Stopped Out
CORN (2026-09-22)
6.8/10
-7.6%
Lagging
BNO (2026-10-01)
6.5/10
+3.5%
On Track
Crypto
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
1 On Track
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BTC-USD (2026-09-20)
6.6/10
+3.1%
On Track
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +58.20%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
carry trade
A carry trade borrows in a currency with a low interest rate and parks the money in a currency with a higher one.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.