market_pulse — Prepass and live aggregator calls to data-aggregator-api.gmc-works.com failed (SSL handshake timeout), so pulse, breadth, RS, regime, calendar and prices.json are ok:false. Index, commodity, crypto and ETF levels are Yahoo daily closes. The 10-year, 2-year and 30-year are the Treasury curve for 13 Oct, the first cash session after the Columbus Day shutdown. The dollar tile is the daily ICE index, not weekly DTWEXBGS. FTSEMIB was not returned. Yahoo's EURUSD and USDJPY series skip 13 Oct, so those percents are versus the 12 Oct bar. Bitcoin and ether also skip 13 Oct.
yesterday_retrospective — Tuesday sector and bank percents are Yahoo closes. GET /movers was not reachable. Wednesday Asia levels are Yahoo closes; morning rebound headlines are cited only as the intraday description, not as the close.
us_equity_ideas — Screener unavailable for category=us — fell back to web search. Quote-summary fundamentals returned HTTP 401, so market cap, PE, PEG, ROE and revenue growth are null.
eu_equity_ideas — Screener unavailable for category=eu — fell back to web search. ASML published Q3 figures on 14 Oct, but Yahoo has no 14 Oct bar for ASML.AS and the US ADR's last bar is the 13 Oct pre-print close, so no post-print price is published and the section has zero ideas.
penny_plays — Screener unavailable or empty for category=penny — fell back to web search; penny universe may not be seeded yet. No name under $5 cleared the multi-bagger bar, so the section publishes zero ideas.
forex_rebalancing — fx_eurusd.json failed and the squawk-alert feed was unreachable — fell back to the CPI preview and Wednesday FX headlines. Yahoo's EUR and yen daily bars skip 13 Oct, so the 1-day rate of change was not taken from that gap. The 2-year 4.79% and 10-year 5.21% are the Treasury curve for 13 Oct.
commodities_outlook — prices.json failed. Brent 105.95 is the Yahoo last on the 14 Oct bar, versus Tuesday's bar at 105.69. Gold 4171.30, silver 58.89, copper 6.7575, natural gas 3.31 and the grains were checked. Copper's open-pit halt is under 10% of El Teniente, so it did not clear a second sleeve.
crypto_landscape — Crypto quotes on the aggregator failed. Published prices are Yahoo prints. The BTC and ETH series have no 13 Oct bar, so the percent is versus the 12 Oct bar and is not a one-session change. Flow figures are the 13 Oct totals cited by CryptoBriefing and Bloomingbit.
trend_follow — Aggregator price history failed. The 50-day, 200-day and 20-day RS figures are computed from Yahoo daily closes through Tuesday 13 Oct. 7 of 18 names are above the 50-day. The buy list is the three that also clear relative strength. XLE and XLV stay as holds because they are still above the 50-day but no longer beat SPY.
risk_top5 — HY OAS, IG OAS, the equity put/call ratio and the predictions endpoint were not returned. VIX is Yahoo. The 2s10s uses the Treasury 2-year at 4.79% against the Treasury 10-year at 5.21% for 13 Oct.
risk_cover_playbook — No regime-engine label was copied because pulse.json failed. MOVE, jobless claims, SOFR, HY OAS and IG OAS were not available and are omitted. Hedge ETFs and the stock-bond correlation use Yahoo daily closes. Breadth is the S&P versus its own 200-day, not the share of members above that average.
portfolio_reality_check — Portfolio Manager at portfolio-manager.gmc-works.com timed out, so no performance, positions or trades were read and no order was sent. hit_rate_last_30d_pct is 56.3, from Yahoo closes on 87 picks first published on or after 2026-09-14. Invalidation lines were not re-checked against live positions because /positions failed.
executive_summary — blended_pnl_pct and total_value_all_portfolios are null because no book returned invested_amount. The hit rate 56.3 is the Yahoo-inferred 30-day figure, not a Portfolio Manager mark.
Above +50 bp scores +1. Between 0 and +50 scores 0. Below 0 scores −1.
Today's Top Picks
MSFT
6.7/10
GS
6.5/10
XLK
6.3/10
SMH
6/10
BZ=F
6.2/10
Biggest Risk
September CPI on Oct 14 can reopen an October hike
Probability: Medium • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: N/A
Blended P&L: N/A • 30d Hit Rate: +56.30%
Blended P&L withheld: none of the 7 books has a live quote that agrees with its time-weighted return. Hit rate is 49 of 87 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 629.9%, average loss -6.3%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 4 minThe S&P 500's last close is 7805.45, down 0.02%, and the VIX is 15.27, up 0.06 points. The 10-year is 5.21, the 2s10s spread is 0.42, and the ICE dollar is 102.11.
MARKET PULSE
Wednesday's KOSPI is 6008.81, down 0.44%, and Brent is 105.95, so the US open inherits a flat index close with crude still above $100 into CPI.
Mixed tape Book Risk-On 3/3 clear
AIThe S&P 500's last close is 7805.45, down 0.02%, and the VIX is 15.27, up 0.06 points. The 10-year is 5.21, the 2s10s spread is 0.42, and the ICE dollar is 102.11.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,805.45
yday 7,807.24
▼ -0.02%
NASDAQ Data
27,204.38
yday 27,245.90
▼ -0.15%
Nasdaq 100 Data
30,569.48
yday 30,664.70
▼ -0.31%
Dow Jones Data
51,670.10
yday 51,850.55
▼ -0.35%
Russell 2K Data
2,783.37
yday 2,794.48
▼ -0.40%
Euro Stoxx 50 Data
6,167.01
yday 6,201.21
▼ -0.55%
STOXX 600 Data
635.01
yday 635.65
▼ -0.10%
DAX Data
25,259.90
yday 25,277.68
▼ -0.07%
CAC 40 Data
7,827.63
yday 7,832.88
▼ -0.07%
FTSE 100 Data
10,650.30
yday 10,656.30
▼ -0.06%
Nikkei 225 Data
67,744.29
yday 67,777.52
▼ -0.05%
Hang Seng Data
24,370.79
yday 24,253.15
▲ +0.11%
VIX 3M Data
17.96
yday 17.93
▲ +0.17%
KOSPI Data
6,008.81
yday 6,035.35
▼ -0.44%
Shanghai Composite Data
3,768.35
yday 3,799.50
▼ -0.86%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
4,171.30
yday 4,214.60
▼ -0.14%
Silver Data
58.89
yday 60.75
▼ -0.46%
Copper Data
6.76
yday 6.76
▲ +1.19%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data
94.41
yday 92.23
▲ +0.29%
Brent Data
105.95
yday 105.13
▲ +0.25%
Natural gas Data
3.31
yday 3.17
▲ +0.91%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
83,459.08
yday 83,628.54
▲ +2.07%
Ether Data
2,503.73
yday 2,526.31
▲ +2.43%
US spot Bitcoin ETFs AI
+175.6 $m
yday -65.4 $m
Inbound
US spot Ether ETFs AI
+24.8 $m
yday -85.4 $m
Inbound
Rates
UST 2y Data
4.79
yday 4.80
-1bp
UST 10y Data
5.21
yday 5.24
-3bp
UST 30y Data
5.56
yday 5.60
-4bp
2s10s Data
0.42
yday 0.44
-2bp
Volatility
VIX Data
15.27
yday 15.21
+0.06 (+0.4%)
VIX9D/VIX Data
0.79
yday 0.77
calm
VIX/VIX3M Data
0.85
yday 0.85
calm
Dollar & FX
ICE dollar index Data
102.11
yday 102.34
-0.07 (-0.1%)
EUR/USD Data
1.12
yday 1.12
▲ +0.43%
ICE dollar index, 5-session change Data
-0.13
yday 0.50
calm
Breadth
Stock-bond correlation (20-session, SPY vs TLT) Data
0.52
yday 0.52
stress
S&P 500 versus its own 200-day average Data
7.52
yday 7.61
calm
Cross-asset
Average pairwise sector correlation (11 SPDRs, 20-session) Data
0.24
yday 0.26
calm
Gold/copper ratio, 5-session change Data
-1.66
yday -1.81
calm
Cover checks
VIX Data
15.27 / 25.00
yday 15.21
Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread Data
0.42 / -0.20
yday 0.44
Not Triggered
S&P 500 drawdown from 52-week high Data
-0.17 / -10.00
yday -0.15 / -10.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AITuesday's equity tape was nearly flat and copper is 6.7575, with Brent still at 105.95 and the 10-year at 5.21. That is growth holding up and inflation still bid. Keep the inflation sleeves on and long bonds at zero into the 14 Oct CPI. The bank-stock drop is an earnings reaction
• Cut the trend book's tech add and raise cash before adding a new equity idea.
• Use GLD as the liquid hedge; add SH only after a second hard trigger, not on the CPI headline alone.
AINo hard trigger is fired: VIX 15.27, 2s10s at +42bp, and the S&P -0.17% under its 52-week closing high, so the regime stays risk-on. One of seven internals is in stress, the 20-session stock-bond correlation at 0.52. The vol curve is still in contango. Tuesday's bank tape and Wednesday's flat KOSPI close are not a US trigger.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 1 minTuesday's S&P 500 closed at 7805.45, down 0.02%, as Citigroup fell 5.60% and Wells Fargo fell 3.10%. Micron closed at 953.19, down 3.62%, so the chip drawdown was not only a Korea story.
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Tuesday's S&P 500 closed at 7805.45, down 0.02%, as Citigroup fell 5.60% and Wells Fargo fell 3.10%. Micron closed at 953.19, down 3.62%, so the chip drawdown was not only a Korea story.
Bridge to Today
Wednesday's KOSPI last is 6008.81, down 0.44%, and the Nikkei last is 67744.29, down 0.05%, so the morning chip bounce did not hold into the CPI print.
UST 10y5.21%
3%6%
Now. The Nasdaq's move on this tape, and the 10-year. Yesterday's close stays in the sentence above.
Over the next few weeks the equities beat is the marker: that line was $6.44bn, up 72%, and Tuesday's close is 891.91.
Equities revenue +72%AUS $4.1tn record
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
52-week range
Goldman reported equities revenue of $6.44bn, up 72% year on year and ahead of the $5.05bn consensus, and investment-banking revenue of $3.2bn.Assets under supervision ended at a record $4.1tn, the 35th straight quarter of long-term fee inflows.
Target
$1200.00
Invalidation: Equities revenue growth turns negative at the next print.
TradingView's price for GS. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 1 min
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 4 minSMH, XLK and QQQ still clear the buy rules. XLE and XLV stay on the book as holds after 20-day relative strength versus SPY turned negative, and 7 of 18 names are above the 50-day.
TREND FOLLOW
SMH, XLK and QQQ still clear the buy rules. XLE and XLV stay on the book as holds after 20-day relative strength versus SPY turned negative, and 7 of 18 names are above the 50-day.
7 of 18 universe ETFs closed above their 50-day. Only three also beat SPY over 20 sessions, and all three are the tech cluster. XLE led the sector tape and…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
6
-0.49%
XLK
Technology Select Sector SPDR
6.3
-0.04%
QQQ
Invesco QQQ
6
-0.33%
XLV
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
4
-1.35%
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR
4.7
+1.80%
SMHTECHNOLOGYBUY🔥 5-issue streak
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
6/10Conviction
$588.12
▼ -0.49%
Into the next sessions SMH stays a rules buy above its 50-day near 580.10; Wednesday's flat KOSPI close is the test, not a rule break.
Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Korea chips bounced intraday; the close diSemis still lead 20-day RS versus SPY.Close is above both the 50-day and 200-day
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
7/10
SMH still leads the book's 20-day relative strength on Tuesday's close.Wednesday's KOSPI last is 6008.81, down 0.44%, which did not break the US 50-day.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~580.10).
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 2-4 weeks the tech sleeve stays on while XLK holds its 50-day near 189.83 and a positive 20-day gap versus SPY.
Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Tuesday tech was flat; the 50-day held.Mega-cap tech RS versus SPY is still positClose is above both the 50-day and 200-day
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
8/10
Tuesday's XLK move did not break the 50-day.The 50-day remains above the 200-day.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~189.83).
TradingView's price for XLK. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 2-4 weeks QQQ stays a rules buy above its 50-day near 726.55; it is the Nasdaq trend, not a new catalyst.
Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.No catalyst beyond the Nasdaq trend.Broad mega-cap sleeve, not a fresh theme.Close is above both the 50-day and 200-day
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
7/10
The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.31% Tuesday and still clears both moving averages.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~726.55).
TradingView's price for QQQ. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 2-4 weeks health care is a hold only: XLV is 0.24% above its 50-day and no longer beating SPY.
Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Health care fell 1.35% and lost RS.Still on the book, no longer a rules buy.Only 0.24% above the 50-day; RS negative.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
4/10
Health care was Tuesday's weakest large sector and lost the relative-strength test.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~169.25).
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 2-4 weeks XLE stays above its 50-day near 62.97, but 20-day RS versus SPY is negative, so this is a hold.
Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Energy led Tuesday; Brent is still above $The sleeve failed the 20-day RS test.Above both averages, but RS versus SPY is
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
4/10
Energy rose 1.80% on Tuesday while Brent's Tuesday bar was 105.69.The 20-day gap versus SPY is no longer positive.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~62.97).
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minBitcoin's latest print is 83459.08 after spot bitcoin ETFs took in $175.6m on 13 Oct, led by FBTC. Ether ETFs added $24.8m the same day, which does not erase October's outflow run.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Bitcoin's latest print is 83459.08 after spot bitcoin ETFs took in $175.6m on 13 Oct, led by FBTC. Ether ETFs added $24.8m the same day, which does not erase October's outflow run.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
4.8
+2.07%
ETH-USD
Ether
4.2
+2.43%
BTC-USDHOLD🔥 47-issue streak
Bitcoin
4.8/10Conviction
$83459.08
▲ +2.07%
Into the next flow print, do not add bitcoin: the latest print 83459.08 follows one $175.6m inflow, and October is still net negative.
No protocol cash-flow metric scored.Bitcoin ETFs +$175.6m on 13 Oct, led by FBOne inflow day after Monday's $65.4m outflOctober is still a net outflow month.Latest print is up versus the 12 Oct bar,
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
5/10
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
5/10
US spot bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of $175.6m on 13 Oct, and FBTC led with $103.1m.
Invalidation: October's bitcoin ETF complex finishes the month in inflow.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Leave ether on watch: a $24.8m inflow on 13 Oct is not the repair, and the latest print is 2503.73.
No protocol cash-flow metric scored.Ether ETFs +$24.8m on 13 Oct.One green day does not end the October runA small inflow is not a new adoption bid.Latest print is up versus the 12 Oct bar,
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
4/10
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
5/10
Ether ETFs added $24.8m on 13 Oct, with the Grayscale Ethereum Staking Mini Trust leading.
Invalidation: A full week of ether-ETF inflows, not one green day.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 1 minBrent's latest print is 105.95, still above $100 after Tuesday's bar at 105.69. Gold, copper, gas and the grains were checked and did not clear a cleaner catalyst into today's CPI.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Brent's latest print is 105.95, still above $100 after Tuesday's bar at 105.69. Gold, copper, gas and the grains were checked and did not clear a cleaner catalyst into today's CPI.
Brent at 105.95 with the 10-year at 5.21 is still an inflation premium into the 14 Oct CPI. Copper at 6.7575 did not earn a second sleeve: the El Teniente open…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BZ=F
Brent
6.2
+0.25%
BrentENERGYWATCH🔥 14-issue streak
BZ=F
6.2/10Conviction
$105.95
▲ +0.25%
Into today's CPI, Brent at 105.95 is still an inflation tape; Tuesday's bar at 105.69 did not break the $100 shelf.
Latest print 105.95; Tuesday bar was 105.6No COT positioning print this run.Gulf risk still live; Tuesday's slip did nInflation premium into today's CPI, not a Yahoo last 105.95 is holding the $100 shel
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
Economic Times said Brent slipped on Tuesday after Monday's 106.65 settle as traders weighed extra Russian diesel against attacks on Saudi Arabia.The Yahoo last on the 14 Oct bar is 105.95, still above $100, with September CPI due on 2026-10-14.
Invalidation: Brent closes under 100 for two sessions.
TradingView's price for BZ=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 5 min30d hit rate 56%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
No book with a live quote is included in this bar.
Tech US
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
29 On Track · 8 Lagging · 3 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
ALGT (2026-09-14)
6.5/10
-7.6%
Lagging
COP (2026-09-14)
7.5/10
+2.6%
On Track
LMT (2026-09-15)
6.6/10
-4.8%
Lagging
CRWD (2026-09-15)
7.1/10
+11.0%
On Track
LLY (2026-09-15)
7.1/10
+2.1%
On Track
LHX (2026-09-15)
6/10
-4.4%
Lagging
IREN (2026-09-16)
6/10
-16.3%
Stopped Out
LITE (2026-09-17)
7/10
+7.5%
On Track
HAE (2026-09-18)
6.8/10
+13.1%
On Track
JBHT (2026-09-18)
6.5/10
-3.3%
Lagging
LRCX (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
+4.5%
On Track
COIN (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
-6.4%
Lagging
ACN (2026-09-20)
7/10
+17.8%
On Track
TLN (2026-09-20)
6.8/10
+30.7%
On Track
META (2026-09-22)
7.4/10
+2.9%
On Track
ARHS (2026-09-22)
6.2/10
+10.0%
On Track
SNDK (2026-09-23)
7.3/10
-21.4%
Stopped Out
AAPL (2026-09-23)
6.5/10
+0.4%
On Track
DG (2026-09-25)
7/10
+2.0%
On Track
COST (2026-09-25)
6.8/10
+6.5%
On Track
SNPS (2026-09-26)
7/10
+16.1%
On Track
JCI (2026-09-26)
7/10
+4.2%
On Track
SNX (2026-09-28)
7.3/10
+5.0%
On Track
TFX (2026-09-28)
6.3/10
+1.9%
On Track
NVDA (2026-09-29)
6.2/10
-0.1%
Lagging
JNJ (2026-09-30)
6.2/10
-7.1%
Lagging
NFLX (2026-09-30)
7/10
+0.2%
On Track
BKR (2026-09-30)
6.3/10
+0.9%
On Track
NICE (2026-09-30)
6.7/10
+7.6%
On Track
CEG (2026-10-01)
6.5/10
+16.4%
On Track
MU (2026-10-01)
6.8/10
-10.5%
Stopped Out
OXY (2026-10-02)
6.8/10
+6.6%
On Track
ABNB (2026-10-02)
6/10
+3.2%
On Track
HPE (2026-10-03)
6.6/10
-0.8%
Lagging
PTC (2026-10-05)
7.7/10
+34.7%
On Track
MSFT (2026-10-06)
7.25/10
+3.5%
On Track
HUM (2026-10-09)
7/10
+8.6%
On Track
TEVA (2026-10-10)
7/10
+0.4%
On Track
CRM (2026-10-13)
6.7/10
+1.8%
On Track
FSLR (2026-10-13)
6/10
+3.8%
On Track
Euro Only
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
12 On Track · 10 Lagging · 1 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
TTE.PA (2026-09-14)
7.3/10
+0.3%
On Track
GSK.L (2026-09-15)
7/10
-4.5%
Lagging
KIE.L (2026-09-15)
7/10
+11592.7%
On Track
BAB.L (2026-09-16)
7.3/10
+8827.9%
On Track
EXENS.PA (2026-09-17)
7.5/10
-1.1%
Lagging
SOI.PA (2026-09-17)
6.8/10
+10.8%
On Track
DRX.L (2026-09-18)
7/10
-7.0%
Lagging
NXT.L (2026-09-18)
7.2/10
-1.3%
Lagging
ORSTED.CO (2026-09-19)
6.8/10
-7.7%
Lagging
GLE.PA (2026-09-21)
6.7/10
-11.6%
Stopped Out
BEZ.DE (2026-09-21)
7/10
+33.8%
On Track
TUI1.DE (2026-09-22)
6.8/10
+1.9%
On Track
SAVE.ST (2026-09-22)
6/10
-0.6%
Lagging
SAN.MC (2026-09-23)
7/10
-4.4%
Lagging
KCR.HE (2026-09-25)
7.3/10
-3.1%
Lagging
ATE.PA (2026-09-26)
7.3/10
+6.5%
On Track
GLEN.L (2026-09-27)
6.3/10
+4.5%
On Track
KLR.L (2026-09-28)
7/10
-1.1%
Lagging
CRDA.L (2026-09-28)
6/10
+5.6%
On Track
SAF.PA (2026-10-01)
6.5/10
-4.8%
Lagging
STLAP.PA (2026-10-03)
6.5/10
+2.2%
On Track
TSCO.L (2026-10-09)
7.2/10
+10111.8%
On Track
DEMANT.CO (2026-10-10)
7/10
+4.5%
On Track
Penny Plays
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
3 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BFRI (2026-09-17)
5/10
-26.3%
Stopped Out
INO (2026-09-28)
5/10
-15.3%
Stopped Out
LXRX (2026-09-29)
5/10
-15.3%
Stopped Out
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
1 On Track · 5 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
GLD (2026-09-14)
7/10
-4.3%
Lagging
TLT (2026-09-14)
8/10
-3.1%
Lagging
IEF (2026-09-14)
6/10
-1.6%
Lagging
DBC (2026-09-14)
7/10
+1.0%
On Track
SPLV (2026-09-14)
5/10
-1.1%
Lagging
SH (2026-09-14)
8/10
-2.4%
Lagging
Trend Follow
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
3 On Track · 4 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
SMH (2026-09-18)
3.3/10
+7.8%
On Track
XBI (2026-09-18)
3.3/10
-4.8%
Lagging
XLB (2026-09-18)
3.3/10
-2.0%
Lagging
XLK (2026-09-28)
6.3/10
+0.0%
On Track
QQQ (2026-10-10)
6/10
-1.0%
Lagging
XLV (2026-10-10)
6.7/10
-0.7%
Lagging
XLE (2026-10-13)
6.7/10
+1.8%
On Track
Commodities
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
3 On Track · 1 Lagging · 3 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
UNG (2026-09-15)
6.9/10
+10.4%
On Track
USO (2026-09-15)
7.2/10
-2.3%
Lagging
WEAT (2026-09-17)
6.8/10
-8.6%
Stopped Out
CPER (2026-09-18)
6.8/10
+4.8%
On Track
SLV (2026-09-19)
7/10
-10.8%
Stopped Out
CORN (2026-09-22)
6.8/10
-8.8%
Stopped Out
BNO (2026-10-01)
6.5/10
+8.3%
On Track
Crypto
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
1 On Track
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BTC-USD (2026-09-20)
6.6/10
+4.0%
On Track
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +56.30%
Glossary
VIX term structure
The VIX term structure is the set of volatility prices across horizons, not a second fear gauge.
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.