market_pulse — Prepass and live aggregator calls failed the TLS handshake, so pulse, breadth, RS, regime, calendar and prices.json are ok:false. Index, FX, commodity and crypto levels are Yahoo daily closes. FRED timed out, so DGS, DFF, weekly DTWEXBGS, HY OAS and IG OAS are omitted. The dollar tile is the daily ICE index, not weekly DTWEXBGS. FTSEMIB returned 404 and OMXS30 had a single bar, so both are omitted. No Pulse v2 regime, ladder, RS or curve block was hand-built.
yesterday_retrospective — GET /movers was unreachable. Sector and index percents are Yahoo closes for 14 Oct in the US and Europe and for the 15 Oct Asia close. Asia percentage points differ slightly from same-morning wire flashes; the Yahoo close is the published number.
us_equity_ideas — Screener unavailable for category=us — fell back to web search. Fundamentals and alt-data routes were unreachable, so market cap, PEG, ROE and revenue growth are omitted. UNH price is the Yahoo 14 Oct close.
eu_equity_ideas — Screener unavailable for category=eu — fell back to web search. Yahoo's chart API last bar for ASML.AS is 13 Oct at 1509.60. The published price is the 14 Oct Amsterdam close, 1528.20 (+1.23%), from the Yahoo quote page and Boursier. The US ADR closed 14 Oct at 1650.00, -3.95%.
penny_plays — Screener unavailable or empty for category=penny — fell back to web search. No name under $5 cleared the multi-bagger bar, so the section publishes zero ideas.
forex_rebalancing — fx_eurusd.json failed, the predictions route was unreachable, and the squawk feed was not called successfully. Scores use Yahoo crosses and the cited CPI and dollar headlines. No fresh Ministry of Finance statement was found this run.
commodities_outlook — prices.json failed. Brent, RBOB and gold are Yahoo futures prints dated 15 Oct. No COT series. Real yields were not returned, so gold fundamentals are unscored.
crypto_landscape — Crypto quotes on the aggregator failed. Published prices are Yahoo prints. Flow figures are the 14 Oct US spot ETF totals cited by CoinVictor. Liquidation notionals are CoinDesk and CryptoTimes.
trend_follow — rs_sectors.json and price history on the aggregator failed. The 50-day, 200-day and 20-day RS figures are computed from Yahoo daily closes through 14 Oct. 5 of 18 names are above the 50-day.
risk_top5 — HY OAS, IG OAS, the equity put/call ratio and the predictions endpoint were not returned. VIX and VIX3M are Yahoo. The 2-year yield was not available, so 2s10s is not stated.
risk_cover_playbook — No regime-engine label was copied because pulse.json failed. MOVE, jobless claims, SOFR, HY OAS and IG OAS were not available and are omitted. Breadth is the S&P versus its own 200-day, not the share of members above that average. Stock-bond correlation and sector correlation are computed from Yahoo daily returns.
portfolio_reality_check — Portfolio Manager TLS handshake timed out, so no performance, positions or trades were read and no order was sent. hit_rate_last_30d_pct is 48.6, from Yahoo closes on 74 picks first published on or after 2026-09-15. EU marks use the last completed bar on or before 14 Oct, because the 15 Oct European bar was an open print.
executive_summary — blended_pnl_pct and total_value_all_portfolios are null because no book returned invested_amount. The hit rate is the Yahoo-inferred 30-day figure, not a Portfolio Manager mark.
GeneralThe Bottom Line 1 minCPI at 3.7% hit tech, but VIX 16.9 and a -1.3% S&P drawdown leave the hard risk-off triggers unfired.
THE BOTTOM LINE
RISK-ON=
CPI at 3.7% hit tech, but VIX 16.9 and a -1.3% S&P drawdown leave the hard risk-off triggers unfired.
Today's Top Picks
UNH
7.2/10
XLV
7/10
ASML.AS
6.8/10
XLE
6.7/10
XLP
6.7/10
Biggest Risk
September CPI at 3.7% keeps an October hike live
Probability: Medium • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: N/A
Blended P&L: N/A • 30d Hit Rate: +48.60%
Blended P&L withheld: none of the 7 books has a live quote that agrees with its time-weighted return. Hit rate is 36 of 74 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 5.3%, average loss -7.4%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 4 minCash 10-year closed at 5.19% (-2.7bp) and VIX at 16.87 (+1.60). The ICE dollar's next print is 102.13 (-0.42 pts), a daily index, not the weekly broad dollar.
MARKET PULSE
Nasdaq -1.88% and the S&P 500 -1.11% led the cash-session hit. The next Asia session took the Nikkei -4.90% and the KOSPI -7.57%.
Mixed tape Book Risk-On 2/2 clear
AICash 10-year closed at 5.19% (-2.7bp) and VIX at 16.87 (+1.60). The ICE dollar's next print is 102.13 (-0.42 pts), a daily index, not the weekly broad dollar.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,718.94
yday 7,805.45
▼ -1.11%
NASDAQ Data
26,692.87
yday 27,204.38
▼ -1.88%
Nasdaq 100 Data
29,950.82
yday 30,569.48
▼ -2.02%
Dow Jones Data
51,621.48
yday 51,670.10
▼ -0.09%
Russell 2K Data
2,729.53
yday 2,783.37
▼ -1.93%
Euro Stoxx 50 Data
6,190.37
yday 6,167.01
▲ +0.38%
STOXX 600 Data
637.75
yday 635.01
▲ +0.43%
DAX Data
25,298.61
yday 25,259.90
▲ +0.15%
CAC 40 Data
7,873.11
yday 7,827.63
▲ +0.58%
FTSE 100 Data
10,724.90
yday 10,650.30
▲ +0.70%
IBEX 35 Data
19,230.70
▲ +0.10%
AEX Data
1,137.09
▲ +0.69%
SMI Data
14,129.93
▲ +1.45%
BEL 20 Data
5,546.61
▲ +0.91%
Nikkei 225 Data
64,425.95
yday 67,744.29
▼ -4.90%
Hang Seng Data
23,985.15
yday 24,370.79
▼ -1.35%
KOSPI Data
5,554.22
yday 6,008.81
▼ -7.57%
Shanghai Data
3,704.65
yday 3,768.35
▼ -1.66%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
4,155.80
yday 4,171.30
▲ +1.17%
Silver Data
56.22
yday 58.89
▲ +1.20%
Copper Data
6.55
yday 6.76
▼ -0.94%
Platinum Data
1,606.20
▲ +0.31%
Palladium Data
1,107.00
▲ +1.83%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data
94.26
yday 94.41
▼ -0.87%
Brent Data
104.59
yday 105.95
▼ -1.39%
Natural gas Data
3.25
yday 3.31
▲ +1.66%
RBOB gasoline Data
3.09
▼ -5.32%
Agriculture
Wheat Data
668.00
▼ -0.78%
Corn Data
478.50
▼ -0.47%
Soybeans Data
1,269.25
▼ -0.63%
Rough rice Data
17.27
▲ +0.32%
Cocoa Data
5,735.00
▲ +0.03%
Coffee Data
292.70
▲ +0.72%
Cotton Data
80.66
▲ +0.19%
Sugar Data
20.84
▼ -1.28%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
80,771.45
yday 83,459.08
▼ -2.80%
Ether Data
2,353.80
yday 2,503.73
▼ -5.72%
Solana Data
102.00
▼ -4.43%
US spot Bitcoin ETFs AI
-150.5 $m
yday +175.6 $m
Outbound
US spot Ether ETFs AI
-19.7 $m
yday +24.8 $m
Outbound
Rates
10Y Yield Data
5.19
yday 5.21
▼ -0.52%
UST 30y Data
5.53
yday 5.56
-4bp
UST 10y Data
5.19
-3bp
Volatility
VIX Data
16.87
yday 15.27
+1.60 (+10.5%)
VIX / VIX3M Data
0.90 ratio
watch
VIX9D / VIX Data
0.87 ratio
watch
Dollar & FX
ICE USD Data
102.13
yday 102.11
-0.42 (-0.4%)
EUR/USD Data
1.12
yday 1.12
▲ +0.10%
Breadth
S&P 500 vs its own 200-day Data
6.27 %
calm
SPY minus RSP, 1 day Data
-0.51 pp
watch
Cross-asset
Stock-bond 20d correlation Data
0.38 correlation
stress
Average pairwise sector correlation Data
0.20 correlation
calm
Gold/copper ratio Data
634.50 ratio
watch
Other
UST 5y Data
4.99
-2bp
US 3M Data
4.09
+3bp
Cover checks
VIX Data
16.87 / 25.00
yday 15.27
Not Triggered
S&P 500 drawdown from 52-week high Data
-1.28 / -10.00
yday -0.17 / -10.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Stagflation
AIInflation is up: CPI 3.7% from 3.4%, core 2.6% from 2.4%, gasoline +9.1% on the month. Growth proxies are down: copper lower, the S&P -1.11%, KOSPI -7.6%, and semiconductors through the 50-day. That is stagflation, not yesterday's inflationary boom. Own more gold, cut long durati
• Cut the semiconductor sleeve that is already through its 50-day
• Do not add dollar or duration until the 28 Oct hike odds settle
AIZero of the two scored hard triggers are fired: VIX 16.87 is under 25 and the S&P is -1.3% under its 52-week high. That keeps the regime label risk-on even though 1 internal is in stress (stock-bond correlation +0.38) and the Gave quadrant is stagflation after the 3.7% CPI print and the Asia chip break. HY OAS and the 2-year were not available, so they are not in the trigger count.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 3 minSeptember CPI at 3.7% (core 2.6%) knocked the S&P 500 down 1.11% and the Nasdaq 1.88%, then Seoul -7.6% and Tokyo -4.9% followed.
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
September CPI at 3.7% (core 2.6%) knocked the S&P 500 down 1.11% and the Nasdaq 1.88%, then Seoul -7.6% and Tokyo -4.9% followed.
How Yesterday Unfolded
Asia Thursday's cash session was the transmission: Nikkei -4.9% to 64,426, KOSPI -7.6% to 5,554, Hang Seng -1.4%, Shanghai -1.7%. Samsung, SK Hynix, Kioxia and SoftBank led. The trigger was Wednesday's US CPI, not a local data print.
Europe Wednesday's Europe session finished green before the Asia follow-through: STOXX 600 +0.43% to 637.75, DAX +0.15%, CAC +0.58%, FTSE +0.70%. Healthcare was the leader. ASML's Q3 guide held Amsterdam up 1.2% even after the CPI print.
US The S&P 500 fell -1.11% to 7,718.94, Nasdaq -1.88%, Dow -0.09%, Russell -1.93%. CPI was 0.6% on the month and 3.7% on the year, core 0.3% and 2.6%, versus 0.2% and 2.5% expected. XLK -2.98%, XLV +2.53%, XLP +2.22%. The 10-year spiked above 5.32% and closed at 5.19%.
Technology (XLK -2.98%, SMH -3.98%) → Healthcare and staples (XLV +2.53%, XLP +2.22%) · XLK -2.98% vs XLV +2.53% and XLP +2.22% on 14 Oct
The hot CPI print and the AI-financing scare hit long-duration tech; managed-care earnings gave healthcare a place to hide.
Equities (SPY -1.08%) → Long Treasuries (TLT +0.66%) · SPY -1.08% vs TLT +0.66%; 10-year closed -2.7bp at 5.19% after an intraday peak above 5.32%
By the close the growth scare outweighed the morning hike bid, so duration caught a bid even though CPI was hot.
Key Drivers
September CPI at 3.7% year on year — Headline CPI rose 0.6% on the month and 3.7% on the year, from 3.4% in August. Core was 0.3% and 2.6%, above the 0.2% and 2.5% consensus. Gasoline rose 9.1% and accounted for more than half of the monthly increase.
AI-financing names took the multiple hit — Reuters reported Oracle about -8.8%, CoreWeave about -15%, Nebius about -10%, and Dell about -11% after a Barclays downgrade. A CoreWeave bond issued in June at 9.625% was recently yielding 15%. The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 4.3%.
Asia's chip complex transmitted the move — Reuters reported Samsung about -9.3%, SK Hynix and Kioxia each about -11%, and SoftBank about -9.4% on Thursday. S&P futures were down about 0.5% in the Asia morning.
Bridge to Today
Watch whether Europe's open extends the chip unwind or fades it the way Amsterdam did after ASML's guide.
GeneralConcept of the Day 1 minThe Fed funds rate is a futures price until the Fed actually moves
CONCEPT OF THE DAY
The Fed funds rate is a futures price until the Fed actually moves
Why today : September CPI at 3.7% pushed the cited odds of an Oct 28 hike from 22% to 37%.
The federal funds rate is what US banks charge each other for overnight reserves. The Fed sets a target range; the effective rate is the volume-weighted average of the loans that actually print. Futures on that effective rate are how the market states the odds of a hike or a cut at the next meeting — a price, not a promise. A hot inflation print can reprice those odds within minutes, and long-duration assets move off the change in odds even when the committee has not voted. The next time this newsletter cites a hike probability, read it as the futures market's price for the coming decision, then check whether the effective rate itself has moved.
Next few weeks: the $20.50 FY26 EPS floor should hold the bid if the 88.4% medical-cost ratio sticks.
EPS $4.69 vs $4.14Guide ≥ $20.50+2.1% vs 50-day
Fundamentals
8/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
6/10
52-week range
13 Oct: adjusted EPS $4.69 vs LSEG $4.14; medical-cost ratio 88.4%FY26 adjusted EPS guide raised to at least $20.50 from $19.50–$2014 Oct: Goldman kept Buy and raised its target to $506 from $490
Target
$506.00
Invalidation: FY26 adjusted EPS guide falls back under $20.50.
TradingView's price for UNH. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 1 minASML.AS BUY
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
ASML.ASNEW
ASML Holding
6.8
+1.23%
ASML.ASGROWTHBUYNEW
ASML Holding • Information Technology
6.8/10Conviction
$1528.20
▲ +1.23%
Next quarter: the €14.2–15.2bn Q4 sales guide supports ASML if Amsterdam holds the €1,494 session low.
Q3 sales €11.7bnGM 57.5%Amsterdam +1.23%
Fundamentals
8/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
52-week range
14 Oct: Q3 net sales €11.7bn, gross margin 57.5%, net income €5.0bnQ4 sales guide €14.2–15.2bn; FY26 sales lifted to €44–45bnManagement said planned 2027–28 supply will not meet demand and flagged order interest into 2029–30
Invalidation: Q4 sales guide cut below €14.2bn, or a close under €1,494.
TradingView's price for ASML.AS. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 5 min5 of 18 sleeves closed above the 50-day. Energy, healthcare and staples lead relative strength; semiconductors are an exit.
TREND FOLLOW
5 of 18 sleeves closed above the 50-day. Energy, healthcare and staples lead relative strength; semiconductors are an exit.
5 of 18 universe names closed above the 50-day — buys are energy, healthcare, staples and a thin Nasdaq pair, and SMH is below its 50-day.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR
6.7
+0.64%
XLV
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
7
+2.53%
XLP
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR
6.7
+2.22%
XLK
Technology Select Sector SPDR
5.3
-2.98%
QQQ
Invesco QQQ
5.3
-1.97%
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
3.7
-3.98%
XLEENERGYBUY🔥 3-issue streak
Energy Select Sector SPDR
6.7/10Conviction
$67.63
▲ +0.64%
Stay long energy beta over the next 2–4 weeks only while XLE holds its 50-day and RS vs SPY stays positive.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sHormuz risk is live, but Brent is leaking.Energy leads RS; the story is not new.Above 50- and 200-day; 20d RS vs SPY +3.6p
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
8/10
Hormuz shipping risk still in the tapeXLE 20-day RS leads the universe
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$63.15).
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
Stay with healthcare beta while the post-CPI hideout holds XLV above its 50-day.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sUNH beat and guide raise; XLV was the hideDefensive rotation is the live tape.Above both averages; 20d RS vs SPY +1.6pp.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
7/10
UnitedHealth raised the FY26 EPS floor to $20.50XLV led the cash-session rotation
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$169.49).
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
Staples cleared the trend rules on the CPI rotation; hold while the 50-day holds.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sCPI day rotated into staples.Staples are the clean defensive sleeve.Above both averages; 20d RS vs SPY +1.2pp.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
7/10
Staples rose with healthcare on the CPI day
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$84.01).
TradingView's price for XLP. It is not the last print in this letter.
Tech still clears the trend rules, but only barely — treat the next close under the 50-day as the exit.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules pass; hot CPI is a headwind, not a rTech beta is one close from an exit.Only +0.3% above the 50-day after a down d
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
6/10
Still above the 50-day after XLK fell 2.98%
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$189.90).
TradingView's price for XLK. It is not the last print in this letter.
Nasdaq still trends, with weaker RS than energy or healthcare; do not add if the 50-day breaks.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sTrend itself is the catalyst; CPI is the rNasdaq beta, weaker RS than XLE or XLV.Above both averages; 20d RS vs SPY +1.4pp.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
6/10
Nasdaq trend intact, RS behind energy and healthcare
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$726.66).
TradingView's price for QQQ. It is not the last print in this letter.
Semiconductors lost the 50-day. The rule is to exit, not to wait for a narrative repair.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sSOX fell 4.3% on the CPI day.The semiconductor trend has broken.Closed below the 50-day after the chip unw
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
3/10
Philadelphia semiconductor index -4.3% on 14 OctAsia chip names extended the break on 15 Oct
Invalidation: A close back above the 50-day (~$579.88) would reinstate the trend.
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minBitcoin is $80,771 (-2.8%) and ether $2,354 (-5.7%) as US spot ETFs leaked $150.5m and $19.7m on 14 Oct.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Bitcoin is $80,771 (-2.8%) and ether $2,354 (-5.7%) as US spot ETFs leaked $150.5m and $19.7m on 14 Oct.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
4.5
-2.80%
ETH-USD
Ether
4
-5.72%
SOL-USD
Solana
4.2
-4.43%
BTC-USDHOLD🔥 48-issue streak
Bitcoin
4.5/10Conviction
$80771.45
▼ -2.80%
Next sessions stay heavy while hike odds are live and spot bitcoin ETFs are in outflow; $80,000 is the line.
No protocol-fundamental series scored for US spot bitcoin ETFs: -$150.5m on 14 Oct.Hot CPI, not a crypto-specific catalyst.Trading with the equity risk-off, not a soYahoo close $80,771, -2.8% on the day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
4/10
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
4/10
US spot bitcoin ETFs -$150.5m on 14 OctAbout $197m of bitcoin futures liquidations in 24hHot CPI repriced hike odds
Invalidation: A daily close under $78,000.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Ether should keep lagging while long liquidations clear and spot ether ETFs stay in outflow.
No staking or fee series in this run's inpSpot ether ETFs: -$19.7m on 14 Oct.About $266m of ETH long liquidations in 24Ether is the high-beta leg of the same risYahoo close $2,354, -5.7% on the day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
3/10
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
3/10
About $266m of ether long liquidations in 24hUS spot ether ETFs -$19.7m on 14 Oct
Invalidation: ETH reclaims $2,500 and liquidations flip short.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Solana should trade as high-beta equity risk until this futures liquidation flush is finished.
No network-fundamental series scored for SAbout $31m of SOL futures liquidations in Liquidations followed the CPI print, not aA passenger of the equity unwind, not a neYahoo close $102.00, -4.4% on the day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
4/10
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
4/10
About $31m of Solana futures liquidations as SOL fell with the CPI tape
Invalidation: SOL reclaims $110 and liquidation volume fades.
TradingView's price for SOL-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 3 minBrent is still $104.59 but -1.39% on the session, while RBOB -5.32% is already reversing the gasoline spike that drove CPI.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Brent is still $104.59 but -1.39% on the session, while RBOB -5.32% is already reversing the gasoline spike that drove CPI.
Gold futures are +1.17% at $4156 as the ICE dollar slips -0.42 points, while copper is lower with the equity unwind. If that split holds, the next sessions…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BZ=F
Brent
6
-1.39%
RB=F
RBOB gasoline
6.5
-5.32%
GC=F
Gold
6.3
+1.17%
BrentENERGYWATCH🔥 15-issue streak
BZ=F
6/10Conviction
$104.59
▼ -1.39%
Next sessions: Brent should leak its Hormuz premium unless a new ship loss overwhelms the IEA buffer.
IEA still sees a diesel constraint, with aNo COT or positioning series in this run'sA Hormuz ship was sunk; Brent is still aboThe geopolitical premium is leaking, not gBrent -1.39% at $104.59; the bounce failed
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
A Singapore-registered ship was sunk in the Strait of HormuzIEA October report: diesel constraints can last into next year, with emergency stocks as a bufferBrent still above $100 but down on the session
Invalidation: A sustained Brent close back above $110.
TradingView's price for BZ=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
Next sessions: RBOB is reversing September's gasoline spike, so do not chase the CPI print into fuel.
BLS: gasoline +9.1% MoM was over half of CNo COT or positioning series in this run'sRBOB is falling even as the CPI headline lThe inflation print is backward-looking onRBOB -5.32% at $3.086.
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
BLS: gasoline +9.1% in September, more than half of monthly CPIRBOB futures down sharply on 15 Oct even as the CPI headline is fresh
Invalidation: RBOB closes back above $3.30.
TradingView's price for RB=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
Next cash session has to confirm this futures bounce; Wednesday's gold ETF close was still down.
Real-yield series was not returned this ruNo COT or positioning series in this run'sHaven bid as the dollar slips off the CPI-Gold is the hedge, crude is giving premiumGC=F +1.17% at $4156 after Wednesday's ETF
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
Futures rebounded as the dollar eased off the CPI-day highGLD's 14 Oct cash close was still down 1.49% at 375.99
Invalidation: GC=F loses $4,080, the cited one-week low area.
TradingView's price for GC=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 5 min30d hit rate 49%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
No book with a live quote is included in this bar.
Tech US
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
20 On Track · 10 Lagging · 6 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
LLY (2026-09-15)
7.1/10
+6.4%
On Track
LHX (2026-09-15)
6/10
-4.9%
Lagging
IREN (2026-09-16)
6/10
-28.3%
Stopped Out
LITE (2026-09-17)
7/10
+0.3%
On Track
HAE (2026-09-18)
6.8/10
+11.7%
On Track
JBHT (2026-09-18)
6.5/10
-0.9%
Lagging
LRCX (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
-0.4%
Lagging
COIN (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
-11.0%
Stopped Out
ACN (2026-09-20)
7/10
+18.6%
On Track
TLN (2026-09-20)
6.8/10
+22.6%
On Track
META (2026-09-22)
7.4/10
+0.1%
On Track
ARHS (2026-09-22)
6.2/10
+0.1%
On Track
SNDK (2026-09-23)
7.3/10
-22.8%
Stopped Out
AAPL (2026-09-23)
6.5/10
+1.8%
On Track
DG (2026-09-25)
7/10
+4.1%
On Track
COST (2026-09-25)
6.8/10
+6.4%
On Track
SNPS (2026-09-26)
7/10
+12.7%
On Track
JCI (2026-09-26)
7/10
+1.5%
On Track
SNX (2026-09-28)
7.3/10
+2.7%
On Track
TFX (2026-09-28)
6.3/10
-3.2%
Lagging
NVDA (2026-09-29)
6.2/10
-2.6%
Lagging
NICE (2026-09-30)
6.7/10
-0.2%
Lagging
MU (2026-10-01)
6.8/10
-16.7%
Stopped Out
CEG (2026-10-01)
6.3/10
+8.0%
On Track
OXY (2026-10-02)
6.8/10
+5.7%
On Track
ABNB (2026-10-02)
6/10
+2.9%
On Track
HPE (2026-10-03)
6.6/10
-9.0%
Stopped Out
PTC (2026-10-05)
7.7/10
+0.7%
On Track
MSFT (2026-10-06)
6.8/10
+0.8%
On Track
MRVL (2026-10-07)
7.5/10
-13.8%
Stopped Out
LEVI (2026-10-08)
7/10
+2.7%
On Track
HUM (2026-10-09)
7/10
-1.0%
Lagging
TEVA (2026-10-10)
7/10
-0.9%
Lagging
CRM (2026-10-13)
6.7/10
-0.9%
Lagging
FSLR (2026-10-13)
6/10
-4.0%
Lagging
GS (2026-10-14)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
Euro Only
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
13 On Track · 10 Lagging · 2 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
KIE.L (2026-09-15)
7/10
+15.1%
On Track
BAB.L (2026-09-16)
7.3/10
-13.2%
Stopped Out
EXENS.PA (2026-09-17)
7.5/10
-3.2%
Lagging
SOI.PA (2026-09-17)
6.8/10
+2.5%
On Track
DRX.L (2026-09-18)
7/10
-3.4%
Lagging
NXT.L (2026-09-18)
7.2/10
+4.2%
On Track
ORSTED.CO (2026-09-19)
6.8/10
-3.9%
Lagging
GLE.PA (2026-09-21)
6.7/10
-12.2%
Stopped Out
BEZ.DE (2026-09-21)
7/10
+8.3%
On Track
TUI1.DE (2026-09-22)
6.8/10
+2.2%
On Track
SAVE.ST (2026-09-22)
6/10
+0.8%
On Track
SAN.MC (2026-09-23)
7/10
-3.4%
Lagging
KCR.HE (2026-09-25)
7.3/10
-5.8%
Lagging
ATE.PA (2026-09-26)
7.3/10
+9.3%
On Track
TTE.PA (2026-09-26)
6.7/10
-0.1%
Lagging
GLEN.L (2026-09-27)
6.3/10
+3.9%
On Track
KLR.L (2026-09-28)
7/10
-5.1%
Lagging
CRDA.L (2026-09-28)
6/10
+8.1%
On Track
SAF.PA (2026-10-01)
6.5/10
-4.3%
Lagging
STLAP.PA (2026-10-03)
6.5/10
+1.3%
On Track
GMAB.CO (2026-10-07)
7/10
-0.7%
Lagging
HOME.MC (2026-10-07)
6.5/10
-4.2%
Lagging
BPT.L (2026-10-08)
8/10
+6.1%
On Track
TSCO.L (2026-10-09)
7.2/10
+2.6%
On Track
DEMANT.CO (2026-10-10)
7/10
+5.0%
On Track
Penny Plays
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
2 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BFRI (2026-09-17)
5/10
-33.1%
Stopped Out
LXRX (2026-09-29)
5/10
-14.9%
Stopped Out
Commodities
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
1 On Track · 4 Lagging · 1 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
USO (2026-09-15)
7.2/10
-5.1%
Lagging
WEAT (2026-09-17)
6.8/10
-7.0%
Lagging
CPER (2026-09-18)
6.8/10
-1.4%
Lagging
SLV (2026-09-19)
7/10
-16.2%
Stopped Out
CORN (2026-09-22)
6.8/10
-7.8%
Lagging
BNO (2026-10-01)
6.5/10
+3.4%
On Track
Crypto
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Trend Follow
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
2 On Track · 2 Lagging · 1 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
XLK (2026-09-28)
6.3/10
-2.1%
Lagging
SMH (2026-10-03)
7/10
-10.4%
Stopped Out
QQQ (2026-10-10)
6/10
-3.0%
Lagging
XLV (2026-10-10)
6.7/10
+1.8%
On Track
XLE (2026-10-13)
6.7/10
+0.6%
On Track
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +48.60%
Glossary
Fed funds rate
The federal funds rate is what US banks charge each other for overnight reserves.
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.