market_pulse — Prepass and live aggregator calls failed the TLS handshake, so pulse, breadth, RS, regime, calendar and prices.json are ok:false. Index, FX, commodity and crypto levels are Yahoo daily closes. Weekly DTWEXBGS, HY OAS and IG OAS were not returned. The dollar tile is the 15 Oct ICE index close, not the weekly broad dollar. FTSEMIB returned 404 and OMXS30 had a single bar, so both are omitted. No Pulse v2 regime, ladder, RS or curve block was hand-built. EURUSD has no 15 Oct bar; the published cross is the 16 Oct Yahoo print versus 14 Oct.
yesterday_retrospective — GET /movers was unreachable. Sector and index percents are Yahoo closes for the 15 Oct US and Europe sessions and the 16 Oct Asia bars. Hang Seng and Shanghai may still have been printing when the bars were pulled.
us_equity_ideas — Screener unavailable for category=us — fell back to web search. Fundamentals routes were unreachable, so market cap, PE, PEG, ROE and revenue growth are omitted. TSM's price is the Yahoo 15 Oct close.
eu_equity_ideas — Screener unavailable for category=eu — fell back to web search. Yahoo's daily chart for NDX1.DE stops at the 14 Oct close of 35.02. The guide was released after the Xetra close. The published price is the dpa-AFX Tradegate indication of €37.87, +8.6% versus that close, not a settled 16 Oct Xetra auction.
penny_plays — Screener unavailable or empty for category=penny — fell back to web search. An FDA acceptance for AQST was found, but runway and cash path were not verifiable, so nothing cleared the multi-bagger bar and the section publishes zero ideas.
forex_rebalancing — fx_eurusd.json failed and the predictions route was unreachable. Scores use Yahoo crosses plus the cited PPI and dollar headlines. EURUSD skipped the 15 Oct bar. No fresh Ministry of Finance statement was found this run.
commodities_outlook — prices.json failed. Brent, heating oil and gold are the latest Yahoo futures bars, dated 16 Oct, versus the prior bar. No COT series. Real yields were not returned, so gold fundamentals are unscored. Moneycontrol's gold 'steadied near $4,155' differs from the Yahoo bar at $4,198.60; the gap is under 2% and the Yahoo bar is the published price.
crypto_landscape — Crypto quotes on the aggregator failed. Yahoo daily bars skip 15 Oct, so the published change is versus the 14 Oct bar, not a clean one-day move. Flow figures are the 15 Oct US spot ETF totals on cryptoetf.today and TokenPost.
trend_follow — rs_sectors.json and aggregator price history failed. The 50-day, 200-day and 20-day RS figures are computed from Yahoo daily closes through 15 Oct. 5 of 18 names are above the 50-day.
risk_top5 — HY OAS, IG OAS and the equity put/call ratio were not returned. VIX and VIX3M are Yahoo. The 2s10s used in the cover playbook is the Treasury par curve (2-year 4.77%, 10-year 5.10%), not the Yahoo 10-year of 5.089%.
risk_cover_playbook — No regime-engine label was copied because pulse.json failed. MOVE, jobless claims, SOFR, HY OAS and IG OAS were not available and are omitted. Breadth is the S&P versus its own 200-day, not the share of members above that average. Stock-bond correlation and sector correlation are computed from Yahoo daily returns.
portfolio_reality_check — Portfolio Manager timed out, so no performance, positions or trades were read and no order was sent. hit_rate_last_30d_pct is 52.1, from Yahoo closes on 48 picks first published on or after 2026-09-16. Two LSE marks (BAB.L, TSCO.L) were divided by 100 to undo a pence quote against a pound entry. EU marks use the last bar on or before 15 Oct.
executive_summary — blended_pnl_pct and total_value_all_portfolios are null because no book returned invested_amount. The hit rate is the Yahoo-inferred 30-day figure, not a Portfolio Manager mark.
GeneralThe Bottom Line 1 minPPI rose 1.3%, but VIX is 16.46 and the S&P is only 0.96% under its closing high.
THE BOTTOM LINE
RISK-ON=
PPI rose 1.3%, but VIX is 16.46 and the S&P is only 0.96% under its closing high.
Today's Top Picks
NDX1.DE
7/10
XLV
7/10
XLE
6.7/10
HO=F
6.5/10
TSM
6.3/10
Biggest Risk
September CPI at 3.7% keeps an October hike live
Probability: Medium • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: N/A
Blended P&L: N/A • 30d Hit Rate: +52.10%
Blended P&L withheld: none of the 7 books has a live quote that agrees with its time-weighted return. Hit rate is 25 of 48 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 9.7%, average loss -6.1%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 4 minThe 10-year closed at 5.089% (-10.1bp) and VIX at 16.46 (-0.41 pts). The ICE dollar's 15 Oct close is 102.00 (-0.55 pts), a daily index, not the weekly broad dollar.
MARKET PULSE
The Dow rose 1.08% to 52,177.69 while the Nasdaq added 0.08%. The next tell is whether that gap survives, not the yield drop already on the tape.
Mixed tape Book Risk-On 3/3 clear
AIThe 10-year closed at 5.089% (-10.1bp) and VIX at 16.46 (-0.41 pts). The ICE dollar's 15 Oct close is 102.00 (-0.55 pts), a daily index, not the weekly broad dollar.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,744.06
yday 7,718.94
▲ +0.33%
NASDAQ Data
26,713.03
yday 26,692.87
▲ +0.08%
Nasdaq 100 Data
29,935.60
yday 29,950.82
▼ -0.05%
Dow Jones Data
52,177.69
yday 51,621.48
▲ +1.08%
Russell 2K Data
2,767.27
yday 2,729.53
▲ +1.38%
Euro Stoxx 50 Data
6,168.26
yday 6,190.37
▼ -0.36%
STOXX 600 Data
640.16
yday 637.75
▲ +0.38%
DAX Data
25,382.62
yday 25,298.61
▲ +0.33%
CAC 40 Data
7,934.70
yday 7,873.11
▲ +0.78%
FTSE 100 Data
10,840.40
yday 10,724.90
▲ +1.08%
IBEX 35 Data
19,177.70
yday 19,230.70
▼ -0.28%
AEX Data
1,132.58
yday 1,137.09
▼ -0.40%
SMI Data
14,349.51
yday 14,129.93
▲ +1.55%
BEL 20 Data
5,591.77
yday 5,546.61
▲ +0.81%
Nikkei 225 Data
65,324.29
yday 64,425.95
▲ +1.39%
Hang Seng Data
24,140.53
yday 23,985.15
▲ +0.32%
KOSPI Data
5,668.05
yday 5,554.22
▲ +2.05%
Shanghai Data
3,710.16
yday 3,704.65
▲ +0.07%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
4,198.60
yday 4,155.80
▲ +0.68%
Silver Data
57.90
yday 56.22
▲ +1.86%
Copper Data
6.61
yday 6.55
▲ +1.55%
Platinum Data
1,642.40
yday 1,606.20
▲ +1.97%
Palladium Data
1,133.50
yday 1,107.00
▲ +1.12%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data
95.86
yday 94.26
▼ -2.15%
Brent Data
105.44
yday 104.59
▼ -0.45%
Natural gas Data
3.19
yday 3.25
▼ -1.36%
Heating oil Data
4.62
▼ -4.62%
Agriculture
Wheat Data
664.50
yday 668.00
▼ -0.82%
Corn Data
477.75
yday 478.50
▼ -0.05%
Soybeans Data
1,260.25
yday 1,269.25
▼ -0.22%
Rough rice Data
17.26
yday 17.27
▼ -0.06%
Cocoa Data
5,831.00
yday 5,735.00
▲ +1.67%
Coffee Data
298.05
yday 292.70
▲ +1.83%
Cotton Data
80.66
yday 80.66
▲ +0.19%
Sugar Data
21.13
yday 20.84
▲ +1.39%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
82,073.05
yday 80,771.45
▲ +0.63%
Ether Data
2,448.90
yday 2,353.80
▲ +1.27%
Solana Data
106.21
yday 102.00
▲ +2.05%
US spot Bitcoin ETFs AI
+5.1 $m
yday -150.5 $m
Inbound
US spot Ether ETFs AI
-60.2 $m
yday -19.7 $m
Outbound
Rates
10Y Yield Data
5.09
yday 5.19
▼ -1.95%
UST 30y Data
5.43
yday 5.53
-10bp
UST 10y Data
5.09
yday 5.19
-10bp
Volatility
VIX Data
16.46
yday 16.87
-0.41 (-2.4%)
VIX / VIX3M Data
0.89 ratio
yday 0.90 ratio
watch
VIX9D / VIX Data
0.85 ratio
yday 0.87 ratio
watch
Dollar & FX
ICE USD Data
102.00
yday 102.13
-0.55 (-0.5%)
EUR/USD Data
1.12
yday 1.12
▲ +0.40%
Breadth
S&P 500 vs its own 200-day Data
6.56 %
yday 6.27 %
calm
SPY minus RSP, 1 day Data
-1.09 pp
yday -0.51 pp
calm
Cross-asset
Stock-bond 20d correlation Data
0.27 correlation
yday 0.38 correlation
stress
Average pairwise sector correlation Data
0.20 correlation
yday 0.20 correlation
calm
Gold/copper ratio Data
640.40 ratio
yday 634.50 ratio
watch
Other
UST 5y Data
4.90
yday 4.99
-9bp
US 3M Data
4.09
yday 4.09
unch
Cover checks
VIX Data
16.46 / 25.00
yday 16.87
Not Triggered
S&P 500 drawdown from 252-session closing high Data
-0.96 / -10.00
Not Triggered
Treasury par 10Y-2Y (pp) Data
0.33 / -0.20
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AIInflation is up: PPI 1.3% on the month and 6.3% on the year, on top of CPI at 3.7%. Growth proxies bounced rather than confirmed a break: the S&P rose 0.33%, the Dow 1.08%, and Friday's Nikkei and KOSPI opened higher. That is an inflationary boom versus yesterday's stagflation, w
DataHedge instruments : GLD, TLT, SH · Target cash 40%
Sleeve
Ticker
Target
Action
Gold AI
GLD
25%
Reduce
Long bonds AI
TLT
0%
Exit
Intermediate bonds AI
IEF
10%
Buy
Commodities AI
DBC
20%
Hold
Defensive equity AI
SPLV
10%
Buy
Crash hedge AI
SH
0%
Exit
Cash AI
—
35%
Hold
If triggered today — do this now AI
• Cut the semiconductor sleeve that is already through its 50-day
• Do not add dollars until the 28 Oct hike odds settle
AIZero of the three scored hard triggers are fired: VIX 16.46 is under 25, the S&P is -0.96% under its 252-session closing high, and the Treasury par 2s10s is +33bp (2-year 4.77%, 10-year 5.10%). That keeps the regime label risk-on. One internal is in stress (stock-bond correlation +0.27). The Gave quadrant is inflationary boom after the equity bounce and the 1.3% PPI print, even though yields fell. HY OAS was not available, so it is not in the trigger count.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 1 minHot PPI, up 1.3% on the month, was faded: the Dow rose 1.08% and the 10-year fell 10.1bp to 5.089%, while the Nasdaq added 0.08%.
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Hot PPI, up 1.3% on the month, was faded: the Dow rose 1.08% and the 10-year fell 10.1bp to 5.089%, while the Nasdaq added 0.08%.
Bridge to Today
Watch whether Friday's Asia bounce holds into the Europe open, or whether the chip lag pulls the tape back.
GeneralConcept of the Day 1 minDuration is the bond price's sensitivity to a yield move
CONCEPT OF THE DAY
Duration is the bond price's sensitivity to a yield move
Why today : The 10-year fell 10.1bp to 5.089% after a 1.3% PPI print — that is a duration bid, not a hike chase.
Duration is how much a bond's price moves when its yield changes. A longer bond has more of it than a short bill, so the same drop in yield lifts the long bond's price by more. Investors sometimes buy that sensitivity on a hot inflation day because they want the price gain if yields fall back, not because the inflation print was soft. The trade loses when yields rise instead: the long bond falls harder than the bill. The next time this newsletter says the long end rallied, read it as a duration bid — the yield fell, and the longer bond's price did the work.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing • Information Technology
6.3/10Conviction
$422.25
▼ -1.80%
Next quarter: the $52.3–54.3bn sales guide is the bid. Do not add if the ADR loses $410.
EPS $4.60Q4 guide $52.3–54.3bn-2.8% vs 50-day
Fundamentals
8/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
4/10
52-week range
15 Oct: Q3 diluted EPS NT$29.43, US$4.60 per ADR, on revenue of NT$1,494.24bnQ4 revenue guide US$52.3–54.3bn; gross margin guide 65–67%Management cited the 2-nanometer ramp as support for the fourth quarter
Invalidation: Q4 sales guide cut below $52.3bn, or a close under $410.
TradingView's price for TSM. It is not the last print in this letter.
15 Oct after the close: prelim. Q3 EBITDA about €278m, margin 12.7%FY26 EBITDA-margin guide raised to 11.5–12.5% from 8.0–11.0%Sales guide unchanged at €8.2–9.0bn; full results due 5 Nov
Invalidation: FY26 margin guide cut back under 11.5%.
TradingView's price for NDX1.DE. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 5 min5 of 18 sleeves closed above the 50-day. Healthcare, staples and energy still clear the buy rules; technology and semiconductors are exits.
TREND FOLLOW
5 of 18 sleeves closed above the 50-day. Healthcare, staples and energy still clear the buy rules; technology and semiconductors are exits.
5 of 18 universe names closed above the 50-day — buys are healthcare, staples, energy and a thin Nasdaq hold, and XLK and SMH are below the 50-day.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
XLV
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
7
+1.86%
XLP
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR
6.3
+0.72%
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR
6.7
-1.58%
QQQ
Invesco QQQ
5.3
-0.13%
XLK
Technology Select Sector SPDR
3.7
-0.65%
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
3.7
-1.04%
XLVHEALTH CAREBUY🔥 7-issue streak
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
7/10Conviction
$177.19
▲ +1.86%
Stay with healthcare beta over the next 2–4 weeks while XLV holds its 50-day.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sHealthcare led again: XLV +1.86% on ThursdDefensive rotation is still the live tape.Above both averages; 20d RS vs SPY +3.8pp.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
8/10
XLV rose 1.86% on the PPI day20-day RS vs SPY is the strongest buy in the book
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$169.75).
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
Staples still clear the trend rules. Hold while the 50-day holds.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sStaples rose with the Dow, not on a new prStaples are the clean defensive sleeve.Above both averages; 20d RS vs SPY +2.6pp.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
7/10
Staples rose with healthcare on the rotation day
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$84.04).
TradingView's price for XLP. It is not the last print in this letter.
Stay long energy beta only while XLE holds its 50-day and RS vs SPY stays positive.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sHormuz is live, but XLE fell 1.58% ThursdaEnergy still leads RS; the crude bid is leAbove both averages; 20d RS vs SPY +2.0pp.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
8/10
Hormuz risk is still in the tapeXLE fell on the day even as the trend rules pass
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$63.33).
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
Nasdaq still clears the rules, barely. Do not add if the 50-day breaks.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sTrend itself is the catalyst; chips are thNasdaq beta, one close from an exit.Only +0.2% above the 50-day; RS vs SPY +0.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
6/10
Still above the 50-day after a flat Nasdaq day
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$726.87).
TradingView's price for QQQ. It is not the last print in this letter.
Technology lost the 50-day. The rule is to exit, not to wait for a narrative repair.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules fail; the PPI day did not repair tecTechnology beta is an exit, not a dip to bClosed under the 50-day after a second sof
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
3/10
XLK fell again and closed under the 50-day
Invalidation: A close back above the 50-day (~$189.97) would reinstate the trend.
TradingView's price for XLK. It is not the last print in this letter.
Semiconductors are still under the 50-day. TSMC's guide does not override the exit rule.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sTSMC's guide did not put SMH back above thThe semiconductor trend is still broken.Still under the 50-day; Thursday was anoth
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
3/10
SMH closed down again on 15 OctThe Philadelphia semiconductor index ended down nearly 1%
Invalidation: A close back above the 50-day (~$579.66) would reinstate the trend.
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minBitcoin is $82,073 and ether $2,448.90. US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $5.1m on 15 Oct while ether ETFs saw $60.2m leave.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Bitcoin is $82,073 and ether $2,448.90. US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $5.1m on 15 Oct while ether ETFs saw $60.2m leave.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
5
+0.63%
ETH-USD
Ether
3.8
+1.27%
BTC-USDHOLD🔥 49-issue streak
Bitcoin
5/10Conviction
$82073.05
▲ +0.63%
Next sessions stay heavy while hike odds are live. A $5.1m inflow does not repair the prior outflow.
No protocol-fundamental series scored for US spot bitcoin ETFs: +$5.1m on 15 Oct.Hot PPI, not a crypto-specific catalyst.A small bounce with equities, not a new crYahoo $82,073 vs the 14 Oct bar at $81,562
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
5/10
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
5/10
US spot bitcoin ETFs +$5.1m on 15 OctHot PPI kept the October meeting live
Invalidation: A daily close under $78,000.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Ether should keep lagging while spot ether ETFs stay in outflow and hike odds remain live.
No staking or fee series in this run's inpUS spot ether ETFs: -$60.2m on 15 Oct.Outflows extended a second day after the CEther is still the high-beta leg of the saYahoo $2,448.90 vs the 14 Oct bar at $2,41
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
3/10
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
4/10
US spot ether ETFs -$60.2m on 15 OctTokenPost: a second straight outflow day
Invalidation: ETH reclaims $2,500 and spot ETF flows flip positive.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 3 minBrent is still $105.44, but heating oil is -4.62% after the IEA diesel release. Gold is +0.68% at $4,198.60.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Brent is still $105.44, but heating oil is -4.62% after the IEA diesel release. Gold is +0.68% at $4,198.60.
Gold is $4,198.60 (+0.68%) while Brent is $105.44 (-0.45%) and heating oil is $4.62 (-4.62%). If that split holds, the next sessions are a haven bid against a…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BZ=F
Brent
6
-0.45%
HO=F
Heating oil
6.5
-4.62%
GC=F
Gold
6
+0.68%
BrentENERGYWATCH🔥 16-issue streak
BZ=F
6/10Conviction
$105.44
▼ -0.45%
Next sessions: Brent should keep leaking its Hormuz premium unless a new ship loss overwhelms the IEA diesel release.
IEA is releasing diesel stocks; Brent is sNo COT or positioning series in this run'sShadow-fleet sanction talk versus a live HThe geopolitical premium is leaking, not gBrent $105.44, -0.45% on the latest bar.
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
IEA agreed Thursday to release over 20 million barrels of dieselThe US is weighing an easing of some shadow-fleet sanctionsAttacks around the Gulf are still supporting the barrel
Invalidation: A sustained Brent close back above $110.
TradingView's price for BZ=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
Next sessions: heating oil should keep giving back the CPI-week spike if the IEA diesel release reaches the market.
IEA agreed to release over 20 million barrNo COT or positioning series in this run'sThe release is a direct distillate supply Heating oil is giving back the CPI-week spHO=F $4.6218, -4.62% on the latest bar.
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
IEA diesel release of over 20 million barrelsHO=F is already down sharply on the latest bar
Invalidation: HO=F closes back above $4.90.
TradingView's price for HO=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
Next sessions: gold holds only if the duration bid survives a 1.3% PPI print. A yield rebound ends it.
Real-yield series was not returned this ruNo COT or positioning series in this run'sHaven bid while the 10-year fell 10.1bp.Gold is bid while Brent is leaking premiumGC=F $4,198.60, +0.68% on the latest bar.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
10-year fell 10.1bp on the PPI day even as final demand rose 1.3%Futures extended the Thursday haven bid into the Friday bar
Invalidation: GC=F loses $4,100 on a daily close.
TradingView's price for GC=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 4 min30d hit rate 52%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
No book with a live quote is included in this bar.
Tech US
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
16 On Track · 10 Lagging · 3 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
IREN (2026-09-16)
6/10
-26.9%
Stopped Out
LITE (2026-09-17)
7/10
-5.4%
Lagging
HAE (2026-09-18)
6.8/10
+12.7%
On Track
JBHT (2026-09-18)
6.5/10
-0.6%
Lagging
LRCX (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
-3.7%
Lagging
COIN (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
-5.4%
Lagging
ACN (2026-09-20)
7/10
+24.1%
On Track
TLN (2026-09-20)
6.8/10
+21.0%
On Track
ARHS (2026-09-22)
6.2/10
+16.0%
On Track
SNDK (2026-09-23)
7.3/10
-26.1%
Stopped Out
AAPL (2026-09-23)
6.5/10
+0.7%
On Track
DG (2026-09-25)
7/10
+9.3%
On Track
COST (2026-09-25)
6.8/10
+9.1%
On Track
SNPS (2026-09-26)
7/10
+9.9%
On Track
JCI (2026-09-26)
7/10
-1.7%
Lagging
SNX (2026-09-28)
7.3/10
-3.0%
Lagging
TFX (2026-09-28)
6.3/10
+5.0%
On Track
JNJ (2026-09-30)
6.2/10
-5.3%
Lagging
NFLX (2026-09-30)
7/10
+3.3%
On Track
BKR (2026-09-30)
6.3/10
-2.7%
Lagging
NICE (2026-09-30)
6.7/10
+7.6%
On Track
CEG (2026-10-01)
6.5/10
+8.3%
On Track
OXY (2026-10-02)
6.8/10
+4.9%
On Track
HPE (2026-10-03)
6.6/10
-15.4%
Stopped Out
PTC (2026-10-05)
7.7/10
+34.1%
On Track
HUM (2026-10-09)
7/10
+11.6%
On Track
TEVA (2026-10-10)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
FSLR (2026-10-13)
6/10
-0.5%
Lagging
GS (2026-10-14)
6.5/10
-0.1%
Lagging
Euro Only
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
8 On Track · 9 Lagging · 1 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BAB.L (2026-09-16)
7.3/10
-10.4%
Stopped Out
EXENS.PA (2026-09-17)
7.5/10
-0.7%
Lagging
SOI.PA (2026-09-17)
6.8/10
+0.9%
On Track
DRX.L (2026-09-18)
7/10
-7.2%
Lagging
NXT.L (2026-09-18)
7.2/10
-1.1%
Lagging
ORSTED.CO (2026-09-19)
6.8/10
-7.6%
Lagging
BEZ.DE (2026-09-21)
7/10
+30.2%
On Track
TUI1.DE (2026-09-22)
6.8/10
+0.7%
On Track
SAVE.ST (2026-09-22)
6/10
-0.6%
Lagging
KCR.HE (2026-09-25)
7.3/10
-2.5%
Lagging
ATE.PA (2026-09-26)
7.3/10
+10.8%
On Track
GLEN.L (2026-09-27)
6.3/10
+2.9%
On Track
KLR.L (2026-09-28)
7/10
-6.5%
Lagging
CRDA.L (2026-09-28)
6/10
+9.5%
On Track
SAF.PA (2026-10-01)
6.5/10
-5.8%
Lagging
STLAP.PA (2026-10-03)
6.5/10
-1.3%
Lagging
TSCO.L (2026-10-09)
7.2/10
+5.2%
On Track
DEMANT.CO (2026-10-10)
7/10
+4.0%
On Track
Penny Plays
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Commodities
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Crypto
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Trend Follow
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
1 On Track
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
XLP (2026-10-15)
6.7/10
+0.7%
On Track
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +52.10%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
duration
Duration is how much a bond's price moves when its yield changes.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.