market_pulse — Prepass and a live aggregator price call failed (timeout), so pulse, breadth, RS, regime, calendar and fx history files are ok:false. Index, FX, commodity and crypto levels are Yahoo daily closes except WTI. No Pulse v2 block was hand-built. FTSEMIB returned 404 and OMXS30 had one bar, so both are omitted. Weekly DTWEXBGS, HY OAS and IG OAS were not returned; the dollar tile is the 16 Oct ICE index, not the weekly broad dollar. Reuters reported a WTI settlement of $101.41 (+3.5%); the Yahoo CL=F bar is $99.02 (+1.07%) and a second wrap also cited about $99.02. The oil row uses the Reuters settlement.
yesterday_retrospective — Sunday run with no cash session after Friday 16 Oct, which the 17 Oct issue already explained, so presentation is skip. GET /movers was unreachable.
us_equity_ideas — Screener GET /screener?category=us timed out — fell back to web search. Fundamentals routes were unreachable. EchoStar (ECHO) was cut: JPMorgan's 16 Oct upgrade to Overweight with a $144 target was real, but the stock closed at $85.37, down 1.70% and about 6% under its 50-day. No other Friday call cleared both the catalyst rule and the tape.
eu_equity_ideas — Screener unavailable for category=eu — fell back to web search. eu_fundamentals_gap: market cap, PE, PEG, ROE and revenue growth were not returned, so those fields are omitted. Aixtron's price is the Yahoo 16 Oct Xetra close.
penny_plays — Screener unavailable or empty for category=penny — fell back to web search; penny universe may not be seeded yet. INO is a watchlist only: about five months of cash keeps it under the buy bar.
forex_rebalancing — Squawk-alert feed unavailable — fell back to central-bank web search for same-day FX events. fx_eurusd.json was ok:false. Rate levels used here are the same Yahoo Treasury and ICE dollar prints as the tape, not a second FRED pull.
commodities_outlook — prices.json was ok:false for every commodity. Brent, coffee, gold and copper levels are Yahoo daily closes for 16 Oct. Heating oil was not republished: the Friday HO=F bar fell 2.53% and finished unchanged versus 12 Oct.
crypto_landscape — prices.json was ok:false. Bitcoin, ether and the flow discussion use different clocks: ETF flows are the 12-16 Oct Farside week, while BTC-USD and ETH-USD prices are the 18 Oct Yahoo daily bars.
trend_follow — rs_sectors.json was ok:false. SMA and relative-strength figures are computed from Yahoo daily closes through 16 Oct, not from the aggregator RS matrix.
risk_top5 — HY OAS, IG OAS, the equity put/call ratio and the predictions route were unavailable. VIX and the 10-year are the Yahoo tape. The CPI risk is marked fading because the 3.7% print is older than three days.
risk_cover_playbook — 2s10s, HY OAS, MOVE, SOFR, jobless claims, put/call and S&P member breadth were unavailable. The curve trigger uses the 10-year minus the 3-month bill. Breadth is the S&P 500 versus its own 200-day, not the share of members above theirs.
portfolio_reality_check — Portfolio Manager timed out, so no performance, positions or orders were read and no paper trade was sent. hit_rate_last_30d_pct is a Yahoo mark on ideas first published on or after 2026-09-18 with a portfolio_target, not a fill-based PM statistic. Stop-loss sells were not sent.
GeneralThe Bottom Line 1 minMixed tape: VIX 19.99, Brent 109.86, and none of the hard crash triggers is on.
THE BOTTOM LINE
RISK-ON=
Mixed tape: VIX 19.99, Brent 109.86, and none of the hard crash triggers is on.
Today's Top Picks
BZ=F
7.2/10
XLE
7/10
XLP
6.3/10
AIXA.DE
6/10
KC=F
6/10
Biggest Risk
Hormuz attacks keep Brent above $100 into Iran's reply
Probability: High • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: N/A
Blended P&L: N/A • 30d Hit Rate: +58.60%
Blended P&L withheld: none of the 7 books has a live quote that agrees with its time-weighted return. Hit rate is 41 of 70 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 7.8%, average loss -7.8%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 5 minVIX rose 3.53 points to 19.99 while the 10-year added 0.9bp to 5.098% and the ICE dollar slipped 0.16 points to 101.84. The tension is a volatility jump with yields and the dollar almost un…
MARKET PULSE
The Nasdaq fell 2.15% to 26,140.03 while the Dow lost 0.34% to 52,002.41. Monday's reopen is the test of whether that gap versus Brent at 109.86 holds.
Mixed tape Book Risk-On 3/3 clear
AIVIX rose 3.53 points to 19.99 while the 10-year added 0.9bp to 5.098% and the ICE dollar slipped 0.16 points to 101.84. The tension is a volatility jump with yields and the dollar almost unchanged.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,659.44
yday 7,659.44
▼ -1.09%
NASDAQ Data
26,140.03
yday 26,140.03
▼ -2.15%
Nasdaq 100 Data
29,187.55
yday 29,187.55
▼ -2.50%
Dow Jones Data
52,002.41
yday 52,002.41
▼ -0.34%
Russell 2K Data
2,721.37
yday 2,721.37
▼ -1.66%
Euro Stoxx 50 Data
6,204.23
yday 6,204.23
▲ +0.58%
STOXX 600 Data
644.74
yday 644.74
▲ +0.72%
DAX Data
25,622.61
yday 25,622.61
▲ +0.95%
CAC 40 Data
7,956.70
yday 7,956.70
▲ +0.28%
FTSE 100 Data
10,881.90
yday 10,881.90
▲ +0.38%
IBEX 35 Data
19,326.30
yday 19,326.30
▲ +0.77%
AEX Data
1,142.88
yday 1,142.88
▲ +0.91%
SMI Data
14,391.31
yday 14,391.31
▲ +0.29%
BEL 20 Data
5,586.04
yday 5,586.04
▼ -0.10%
Nikkei 225 Data
65,324.29
yday 65,324.29
▲ +1.39%
Hang Seng Data
24,186.83
yday 24,186.83
▲ +0.52%
KOSPI Data
5,668.05
yday 5,668.05
▲ +2.05%
Shanghai Composite Data
3,716.28
yday 3,716.28
▲ +0.24%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
4,181.10
yday 4,181.10
▲ +0.26%
Silver Data
57.30
yday 56.99
▲ +0.82%
Copper Data
6.57
yday 6.53
▲ +0.95%
Platinum Data
1,633.10
yday 1,623.30
▲ +1.39%
Palladium Data
1,118.60
yday 1,113.30
▼ -0.21%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data
101.41
yday 101.41
▲ +3.50%
Brent Data
109.86
yday 109.86
▲ +3.72%
Natural gas Data
3.12
yday 3.12
▼ -3.71%
Agriculture
Wheat Data
660.50
yday 660.50
▼ -1.42%
Corn Data
474.25
yday 474.25
▼ -0.78%
Soybeans Data
1,261.25
yday 1,261.25
▼ -0.14%
Rough rice Data
17.32
yday 17.32
▲ +0.38%
Cocoa Data
5,686.00
yday 5,645.00
▼ -2.49%
Coffee Data
305.55
yday 305.60
▲ +3.65%
Cotton Data
80.00
yday 80.00
▼ -0.07%
Sugar Data
20.85
yday 20.85
▼ -1.33%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
81,657.47
yday 81,500.21
▲ +0.34%
Ether Data
2,409.52
yday 2,429.10
▲ +0.41%
Solana Data
103.56
yday 104.82
▲ +0.24%
US spot Bitcoin ETFs AI
-228.4 $m
yday -82.4 $m
Outbound
US spot Ether ETFs AI
-320.1 $m
yday -69.7 $m
Outbound
Rates
10Y Yield Data
5.10
yday 5.10
▲ +0.18%
UST 30y Data
5.44
yday 5.44
+1bp
UST 10y Data
5.10
yday 5.10
+1bp
Volatility
VIX Data
19.99
yday 19.99
+3.53 (+21.4%)
VIX9D/VIX Data
1.01 ratio
watch
VIX/VIX3M Data
0.98 ratio
calm
Dollar & FX
ICE USD Data
101.84
yday 101.84
-0.16 (-0.2%)
EUR/USD Data
1.12
yday 1.12
▲ +0.26%
ICE dollar 5-session change Data
-0.36 pct
calm
Breadth
Stock-bond 20d correlation (SPY vs TLT) Data
0.22 ratio
watch
S&P 500 versus its own 200-day average Data
5.34 pct
calm
Cross-asset
Average pairwise correlation of 11 SPDR sectors, 20 sessions Data
0.19 ratio
calm
Gold/copper ratio (front futures) Data
636.10 ratio
calm
Other
UST 5y Data
4.90
yday 4.90
unch
US 3M Data
4.07
yday 4.07
-2bp
Cover checks
VIX above 25 Data
19.99 / 25.00
Not Triggered
10Y-3M spread below -0.20 (2Y unavailable) Data
1.03 / -0.20
Not Triggered
S&P 500 drawdown from 52-week high worse than -10% Data
-2.04 / -10.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Stagflation
AIOil and a 3.7% CPI are the inflation leg, and copper plus the Nasdaq are the weak growth leg, so the quadrant stays stagflation even though gold fell on the week and did not confirm. Weights are unchanged from yesterday, which means hold the sleeves that already match those weigh
• Sell AI-beta that is already under its 50-day rather than adding to it
• Do not add long-duration Treasuries while oil is the inflation leg
• Use the gold sleeve already in the anti-fragile book instead of a new crash overlay
AIZero of the three measured hard triggers is on, and zero of seven internals is in stress. Two are on watch: stock-bond correlation has flipped positive, and 9-day VIX is a fraction richer than 30-day VIX. The book stays in the stagflation mix because oil and the 3.7% CPI are the inflation leg while copper and the Nasdaq are not confirming growth. Gold did not rally with Brent, which is why that sleeve is a hold of the weight rather than a fresh add.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 1 minAIXA.DE BUY
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
AIXA.DENEW
AIXTRON SE
6
+6.17%
AIXA.DEGROWTHBUYNEW
AIXTRON SE • Technology
6/10Conviction
$32.89
▲ +6.17%
Over the next two weeks the 29 Oct full Q3 decides if Friday's order beat sticks: €275m of orders, up 73% year on year, with the shares still 11% under the 50-day.
Orders €275mEBIT margin 31%11% under 50-day
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
3/10
16 Oct preliminary Q3 orders of about €275 million, up 73% year on year and above the €214.6 million estimateOperating margin about 31%, versus 13% a year earlier, on a better product mixFull third-quarter statement scheduled for 29 Oct
Invalidation: 29 Oct full Q3 fails to confirm the €275m order intake.
TradingView's price for AIXA.DE. It is not the last print in this letter.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 5 minEnergy, staples and health still clear the trend rules. Nasdaq, technology and semiconductors remain under their 50-day and stay exits.
TREND FOLLOW
Energy, staples and health still clear the trend rules. Nasdaq, technology and semiconductors remain under their 50-day and stay exits.
4 of 18 universe names closed above their 50-day. Only XLE, XLP and XLV also have the 50-day above the 200-day and are beating SPY.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR
7
+2.52%
XLP
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR
6.3
+1.08%
XLV
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
6
-0.27%
XLU
Utilities Select Sector SPDR
5
+1.34%
QQQ
Invesco QQQ
3.7
-2.50%
XLK
Technology Select Sector SPDR
3.7
-3.02%
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
3.7
-3.41%
XLEENERGYBUY🔥 6-issue streak
Energy Select Sector SPDR
7/10Conviction
$68.24
▲ +2.52%
Over the next two to four weeks stay with energy beta while XLE holds its 50-day; relative strength versus SPY is the confirmation, not the headline.
Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Brent settled $109.86 after Hormuz attacksEnergy leadership is the live tape, not a Above the 50-day and 200-day; 20-day RS vs
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
8/10
Brent settled at $109.86 on 16 Oct as Hormuz attacks picked upXLE 50-day is still rising under the price
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$63.54).
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next two to four weeks the staple bid stays on only while XLP holds its 50-day and tech remains the funding short.
Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Friday's tape paid staples while tech was A defensive rotation, not a staples earninAbove both averages; 20-day RS vs SPY +5.6
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
7/10
XLP rose 1.08% Friday as XLK fell 3.02%Price is above a rising 50-day
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$84.09).
TradingView's price for XLP. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next two to four weeks health stays on the book only while XLV holds its 50-day. There is no fresh clinical catalyst behind the rule.
Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.No dated health catalyst; the rule is the Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Above both averages; 20-day RS vs SPY +4.7
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
7/10
XLV still above its 50-day after Friday's flat close
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$170.0).
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
Utilities cleared the 50-day but not the 200-day test, so this is a hold of the rule, not a new buy.
Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Above the 50-day by a whisker, but the 50-
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
—
Narrative
—
Technicals
5/10
XLU closed above its 50-day; the 50-day remains below the 200-day
Invalidation: A close back under the 50-day (~$42.02) ends the hold.
TradingView's price for XLU. It is not the last print in this letter.
QQQTECHNOLOGYEXIT🔥 9-issue streak
Invesco QQQ
3.7/10Conviction
$709.80
▼ -2.50%
Stay out of QQQ until a daily close reclaims the 50-day. Friday extended the break; it did not repair it.
Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Friday's Nasdaq drop is the same AI-debt uMega-cap growth is the sleeve being sold.Close is under the 50-day (-2.3%).
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
3/10
Nasdaq composite fell 2.15% on 16 OctQQQ closed under its 50-day
Invalidation: Exit stands until a close back above the 50-day (~$726.77).
TradingView's price for QQQ. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLK stays an exit while it is under the 50-day. The next buy is a reclaim, not a headline.
Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Chip and software proxies were Friday's loThe sector ETF is the AI-beta expression.Close is under the 50-day (-3.4%).
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
3/10
XLK fell 3.02% on 16 OctStill under the 50-day
Invalidation: Exit stands until a close back above the 50-day (~$189.93).
TradingView's price for XLK. It is not the last print in this letter.
SMH stays an exit under its 50-day. Do not buy the semiconductor dip while that average is overhead.
Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Semiconductors led Friday's decline.Chip beta is the transmission channel.Close is under the 50-day (-6.8%).
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
3/10
SMH fell 3.41% on 16 OctStill under the 50-day
Invalidation: Exit stands until a close back above the 50-day (~$579.03).
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minUS spot ether ETFs lost $320.1m in the week through 16 Oct, more than bitcoin's $228.4m, and VanEck withdrew a staked-ether filing. That is a flow headwind into next week, not a new adoptio…
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
US spot ether ETFs lost $320.1m in the week through 16 Oct, more than bitcoin's $228.4m, and VanEck withdrew a staked-ether filing. That is a flow headwind into next week, not a new adoption bid.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
4
+0.34%
ETH-USD
Ether
3.5
+0.41%
BTC-USDHOLD🔥 51-issue streak
Bitcoin
4/10Conviction
$81657.47
▲ +0.34%
Into next week bitcoin is a hold: the spot ETF complex leaked $228.4m and the price is only a shade above its 50-day, which is not a fresh buy.
No new issuance or supply print this run.US spot bitcoin ETFs lost $228.4m on the wFlows are the catalyst; no network event iThis is spillover from the equity risk-offA shade above the 50-day; the 200-day is s
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
3/10
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
5/10
US spot bitcoin ETFs lost $228.4m in the week of 12-16 Oct
Invalidation: A daily close back under the 50-day.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Into next week ether stays a watch: ETF outflows were larger than bitcoin's and the price is still under its 50-day.
No verified L2 TVL figure was pulled this US spot ether ETFs lost $320.1m, more thanVanEck withdrew a staked-ether filing on 1Ether led the outflow. That is not a new aAbout 5.5% under its own 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
3/10
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
3/10
US spot ether ETFs lost $320.1m in the week of 12-16 OctVanEck withdrew a staked-ether ETF filing on 14 Oct
Invalidation: A daily close back above the 50-day with outflows flipping positive.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 2 minBrent settled at $109.86, up 3.72% on Hormuz risk, while coffee rose 3.65% on tight certified stocks. Gold at 4181.1 did not confirm a broad commodity bid.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Brent settled at $109.86, up 3.72% on Hormuz risk, while coffee rose 3.65% on tight certified stocks. Gold at 4181.1 did not confirm a broad commodity bid.
The 10-year closed at 5.098% and the ICE dollar at 101.84, and neither jumped with Brent. Gold at 4181.1 and copper at 6.5735 also failed to follow the oil…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BZ=F
Brent crude
7.2
+3.72%
KC=F
Coffee
6
+3.65%
Brent crudeENERGYWATCH🔥 18-issue streak
BZ=F
7.2/10Conviction
$109.86
▲ +3.72%
Into Monday, Brent holds a Hormuz premium only if attacks keep Gulf flows tight. The Friday settle was $109.86; an SPR offer is the cap, not a reason to chase the future.
Hormuz attacks plus an 8.6 million barrel No COT or positioning print was returned.Brent settled $109.86, the highest print sThe bid is a shipping premium, not a demanFriday +3.72%; the front curve is labeled
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
7/10
Attacks around Hormuz and a Yanbu intercept kept the Friday bid aliveUS crude stocks drew 8.6 million barrelsAn SPR release is the stated offset, not a completed one
Invalidation: A daily Brent settle back under $100.
TradingView's price for BZ=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
Into the December notice period, certified-stock tightness can keep coffee bid, but a close back under the 50-day says the Friday jump was only a bounce.
ICE certified stocks cited near a 27-year No COT print; positioning is unscored.Friday settle 305.55, up 3.65% on the day.A beans-timing squeeze, not a broad agricu305.55 is still under the 50-day near 315.
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
4/10
ICE certified stocks were cited near a 27-year lowBrazilian arrivals versus the December contract are the timing risk
Invalidation: KC=F closes back under 290 before December notice.
TradingView's price for KC=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 5 min30d hit rate 59%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
No book with a live quote is included in this bar.
Tech US
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
23 On Track · 10 Lagging · 5 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
HAE (2026-09-18)
6.8/10
+9.9%
On Track
JBHT (2026-09-18)
6.5/10
-3.4%
Lagging
COIN (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
-10.9%
Stopped Out
LRCX (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
-8.4%
Stopped Out
ACN (2026-09-20)
7/10
+26.7%
On Track
TLN (2026-09-20)
6.8/10
+21.4%
On Track
ARHS (2026-09-22)
6.2/10
+13.8%
On Track
META (2026-09-22)
7.4/10
-4.3%
Lagging
AAPL (2026-09-23)
6.5/10
+1.1%
On Track
SNDK (2026-09-23)
7.3/10
-31.1%
Stopped Out
COST (2026-09-25)
6.8/10
+10.3%
On Track
DG (2026-09-25)
7/10
+9.7%
On Track
JCI (2026-09-26)
7/10
-3.1%
Lagging
SNPS (2026-09-26)
7/10
+6.8%
On Track
LLY (2026-09-28)
7.3/10
+6.2%
On Track
SNX (2026-09-28)
7.3/10
-6.2%
Lagging
TFX (2026-09-28)
6.3/10
+6.8%
On Track
NVDA (2026-09-29)
6.2/10
-6.4%
Lagging
BKR (2026-09-30)
6.3/10
-0.4%
Lagging
JNJ (2026-09-30)
6.2/10
-4.5%
Lagging
NFLX (2026-09-30)
7/10
+0.3%
On Track
NICE (2026-09-30)
6.7/10
+5.0%
On Track
CEG (2026-10-01)
6.5/10
+6.8%
On Track
MU (2026-10-01)
6.8/10
-17.5%
Stopped Out
ABNB (2026-10-02)
6/10
+8.2%
On Track
OXY (2026-10-02)
6.8/10
+7.8%
On Track
HPE (2026-10-03)
6.6/10
-20.5%
Stopped Out
PTC (2026-10-05)
7.7/10
+34.0%
On Track
MSFT (2026-10-06)
7.25/10
+0.7%
On Track
HUM (2026-10-09)
7/10
+6.7%
On Track
TEVA (2026-10-10)
7/10
+1.0%
On Track
CRM (2026-10-13)
6.7/10
+2.9%
On Track
FSLR (2026-10-13)
6/10
-3.9%
Lagging
GS (2026-10-14)
6.5/10
-1.2%
Lagging
UNH (2026-10-15)
7.2/10
+1.5%
On Track
TSM (2026-10-16)
6.3/10
-2.3%
Lagging
AA (2026-10-17)
6.2/10
+0.0%
On Track
TRV (2026-10-17)
7.2/10
+0.0%
On Track
Euro Only
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
12 On Track · 8 Lagging · 1 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
DRX.L (2026-09-18)
7/10
-7.9%
Lagging
NXT.L (2026-09-18)
7.2/10
+3.1%
On Track
ORSTED.CO (2026-09-19)
6.8/10
-5.9%
Lagging
BEZ.DE (2026-09-21)
7/10
+32.5%
On Track
GLE.PA (2026-09-21)
6.7/10
-11.2%
Stopped Out
SAVE.ST (2026-09-22)
6/10
-1.3%
Lagging
TUI1.DE (2026-09-22)
6.8/10
+3.3%
On Track
SAN.MC (2026-09-23)
7/10
-5.5%
Lagging
KCR.HE (2026-09-25)
7.3/10
-3.9%
Lagging
ATE.PA (2026-09-26)
7.3/10
+10.2%
On Track
TTE.PA (2026-09-26)
6.7/10
+0.9%
On Track
GLEN.L (2026-09-27)
6.3/10
+3.9%
On Track
CRDA.L (2026-09-28)
6/10
+12.0%
On Track
KLR.L (2026-09-28)
7/10
-7.4%
Lagging
SAF.PA (2026-10-01)
6.5/10
-5.2%
Lagging
STLAP.PA (2026-10-03)
6.5/10
+2.6%
On Track
TSCO.L (2026-10-09)
7.2/10
+6.9%
On Track
DEMANT.CO (2026-10-10)
7/10
+5.2%
On Track
ASML.AS (2026-10-15)
6.8/10
-3.3%
Lagging
NDX1.DE (2026-10-16)
7/10
+3.4%
On Track
DHL.DE (2026-10-17)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
Penny Plays
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Commodities
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
2 On Track · 2 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
CPER (2026-09-18)
6.8/10
+2.4%
On Track
SLV (2026-09-19)
7/10
-14.1%
Stopped Out
CORN (2026-09-22)
6.8/10
-10.3%
Stopped Out
BNO (2026-10-01)
6.5/10
+11.8%
On Track
Crypto
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
1 On Track
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BTC-USD (2026-09-20)
6.6/10
+1.7%
On Track
Trend Follow
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
3 On Track · 2 Lagging · 1 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
XLK (2026-09-28)
6.3/10
-6.5%
Lagging
SMH (2026-10-03)
7/10
-14.4%
Stopped Out
QQQ (2026-10-10)
6/10
-5.5%
Lagging
XLV (2026-10-10)
6.7/10
+3.5%
On Track
XLE (2026-10-13)
6.7/10
+3.4%
On Track
XLP (2026-10-15)
6.7/10
+1.8%
On Track
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +58.60%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Penny-stock risk: very low-priced, thinly traded securities can be illiquid, volatile and easy to manipulate. Spreads can be wide, exits may be impossible at the quoted price, and you can lose your entire investment. Ideas in this category are diligence starting points, not a buy list.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.