market_pulse — Prepass and live aggregator calls timed out (TCP connected, no HTTP/TLS response), so pulse, breadth, RS, regime, calendar and fx history files are ok:false. Index, FX, commodity and crypto levels are Yahoo daily bars except WTI. No Pulse v2 block was hand-built. Weekly DTWEXBGS, HY OAS and IG OAS were not returned; the dollar tile is the daily ICE index, not the weekly broad dollar. Yahoo's 19 Oct CL=F bar printed 96.81; Reuters had WTI at 99.46, down 1.92% from Friday's 101.41 settle. The oil row uses the Reuters print. ^FTSEMIB returned 404 and ^OMXS30 had one bar, so both are omitted. Hong Kong has no 19 Oct bar.
yesterday_retrospective — Monday run, so the session covered is Friday 16 Oct. GET /movers and the news-cluster route were unreachable. Nikkei and Hang Seng Friday moves are Yahoo closes. Monday's Nikkei print is only in the bridge.
us_equity_ideas — Screener GET /screener?category=us timed out — fell back to web search. Fundamentals routes were unreachable. One name cleared a dated 18 Oct target change and a tape that rose on a down Nasdaq day. No second name cleared both the 48-hour rule and a buy.
eu_equity_ideas — Screener unavailable for category=eu — fell back to web search. No European listing cleared both a last-48-hour catalyst and a buy-side tape, so the section publishes zero ideas. eu_fundamentals_gap: fundamentals routes were unreachable.
penny_plays — Screener unavailable or empty for category=penny — fell back to web search; penny universe may not be seeded yet. Sentiment and insider routes were unreachable. No sub-$5 name cleared the buy bar, and yesterday's INO watchlist was not repeated without a new fact.
forex_rebalancing — Squawk-alert feed unavailable — fell back to central-bank web search for same-day FX events. fx_eurusd.json was ok:false. No dated BoJ, Fed, ECB or SNB statement was retrieved, so absolute scores stay inside 4 and no contrarian note is attached. Spot levels are Yahoo.
commodities_outlook — prices.json was ok:false for every commodity. Brent and copper levels are Yahoo daily bars. Brent is repeated because the Hormuz-and-waiver tape is still the best energy catalyst; copper is the non-energy name. Coffee, gold and heating oil were not republished.
crypto_landscape — prices.json was ok:false. Bitcoin and ether prices are the 19 Oct Yahoo bars. ETF flows are Farside's week through 16 Oct, a different clock from the spot price, stored with origin llm.
trend_follow — rs_sectors.json was ok:false. SMA and relative-strength figures are computed from Yahoo daily closes through 16 Oct, not from the aggregator RS matrix.
risk_top5 — HY OAS, IG OAS, the equity put/call ratio and the predictions route were unavailable. VIX and the 10-year are the Yahoo tape. The CPI risk was left off: the last inflation headlines are from 16 Oct and were already marked fading.
risk_cover_playbook — 2s10s, HY OAS, MOVE, SOFR, jobless claims, put/call and S&P member breadth were unavailable. The curve trigger is the 10-year minus the 3-month bill. Breadth is the S&P 500 versus its own 200-day, not the share of members above theirs. Regime is this container's trigger count because the prepass regime engine did not run.
portfolio_reality_check — Portfolio Manager timed out, so no performance, positions or orders were read and no paper trade was sent. hit_rate_last_30d_pct is a Yahoo mark on BUY ideas first published on or after 2026-09-19 with an entry price (65 of 65 priced). It is not a fill-based PM statistic. Invalidation overrides and stop-loss sells were not applied.
executive_summary — Blended P&L is null because no portfolio returned a pnl_pct. The hit rate is the Yahoo mark from the reality check, not a PM figure.
GeneralThe Bottom Line 1 minMixed tape: Nasdaq -2.15% and VIX 19.99, and no hard crash trigger is on.
THE BOTTOM LINE
RISK-ON=
Mixed tape: Nasdaq -2.15% and VIX 19.99, and no hard crash trigger is on.
Today's Top Picks
XLE
8/10
IBN
7.2/10
BZ=F
7/10
XLP
6.3/10
XLV
6/10
Biggest Risk
Hormuz attacks keep Brent above $100 into Iran's reply
Probability: High • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: N/A
Blended P&L: N/A • 30d Hit Rate: +56.90%
Blended P&L withheld: none of the 7 books has a live quote that agrees with its time-weighted return. Hit rate is 37 of 65 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 309.2%, average loss -7.8%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 4 minVIX closed at 19.99, up 3.53 points, while the Nasdaq fell 2.15% to 26,140.03 and the broad Europe index rose 0.72% to 644.74.
MARKET PULSE
The S&P 500 at 7,659.44 is 2.04% under its 52-week high, with the 10-year yield at 5.098%.
Mixed tape Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
AIVIX closed at 19.99, up 3.53 points, while the Nasdaq fell 2.15% to 26,140.03 and the broad Europe index rose 0.72% to 644.74.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,659.44
yday 7,659.44
▼ -1.09%
NASDAQ Data
26,140.03
yday 26,140.03
▼ -2.15%
Nasdaq 100 Data
29,187.55
yday 29,187.55
▼ -2.50%
Dow Jones Data
52,002.41
yday 52,002.41
▼ -0.34%
Russell 2K Data
2,721.37
yday 2,721.37
▼ -1.66%
Euro Stoxx 50 Data
6,204.23
yday 6,204.23
▲ +0.58%
STOXX 600 Data
644.74
yday 644.74
▲ +0.72%
DAX Data
25,622.61
yday 25,622.61
▲ +0.95%
CAC 40 Data
7,956.70
yday 7,956.70
▲ +0.28%
FTSE 100 Data
10,881.90
yday 10,881.90
▲ +0.38%
IBEX 35 Data
19,326.30
yday 19,326.30
▲ +0.77%
AEX Data
1,142.88
yday 1,142.88
▲ +0.91%
SMI Data
14,391.31
yday 14,391.31
▲ +0.29%
BEL 20 Data
5,586.04
yday 5,586.04
▼ -0.10%
Nikkei 225 Data
64,916.70
yday 65,324.29
▼ -0.62%
Hang Seng Data
24,186.83
yday 24,186.83
▲ +0.52%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
4,205.50
yday 4,181.10
+0.58%
Silver Data
57.86
yday 57.30
▲ +1.52%
Copper Data
6.62
yday 6.57
▲ +1.32%
Platinum Data
1,661.00
yday 1,633.10
▲ +2.32%
Palladium Data
1,129.00
yday 1,118.60
▲ +1.41%
Energy
WTI Data
99.46
yday 101.41
-1.92%
Brent Data
107.17
yday 109.86
-2.45%
Natural gas Data
3.10
yday 3.12
▼ -0.61%
Agriculture
Wheat Data
662.75
yday 660.50
▲ +0.34%
Corn Data
473.00
yday 474.25
▼ -0.26%
Soybeans Data
1,263.25
yday 1,261.25
▲ +0.16%
Cocoa Data
5,645.00
yday 5,686.00
▼ -3.19%
Coffee Data
305.60
yday 305.55
▲ +3.66%
Cotton Data
80.00
yday 80.00
▼ -0.07%
Sugar Data
20.85
yday 20.85
▼ -1.33%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
82,809.60
yday 81,657.47
+0.97%
Ether Data
2,431.46
yday 2,409.52
▲ +0.94%
Solana Data
105.75
yday 103.56
▲ +1.66%
US spot Bitcoin ETFs AI
-228.4 $m
yday -228.4 $m
Outbound
US spot Ether ETFs AI
-320.1 $m
yday -320.1 $m
Outbound
Rates
UST 10y Data
5.10
yday 5.10
+1bp
Volatility
VIX Data
19.99
yday 19.99
+3.53 (+21.4%)
VIX9D/VIX Data
1.01
yday 1.01 ratio
watch
VIX/VIX3M Data
0.98
yday 0.98 ratio
calm
Dollar & FX
ICE USD Data
101.79
yday 101.84
-0.05 (-0.1%)
EUR/USD Data
1.12
yday 1.12
+0.07%
ICE USD 5-session change Data
-0.77
calm
Breadth
% from 52w Data
-2.04%
—
SPY-TLT 20-session correlation Data
0.22
watch
S&P 500 vs its own 200-day Data
5.34
calm
Cross-asset
Average pairwise SPDR correlation, 20 sessions Data
0.19
calm
Gold/copper futures ratio Data
635.50
watch
Other
US 3M bill Data
4.07
-2bp
Cover checks
VIX Data
19.99 / 25.00
yday 19.99
Not Triggered
10Y-3M spread Data
1.03 / -0.20
Not Triggered
S&P 500 drawdown from 52w high Data
-2.04 / -10.00
Not Triggered
VIX/VIX3M Data
0.98 / 1.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Stagflation
AIOil is still the inflation sleeve: Brent is 107.17 after Friday's 109.86 settle, and a sanctions waiver has not reopened Hormuz. Growth is not a boom: the Nasdaq fell 4.48% over five sessions, and copper's 1.32% Monday bounce does not repair that. Own gold and broad commodities,
• Sell AI-credit beta first; QQQ, XLK and SMH are already under the 50-day.
• Do not add long bonds while the book is in stagflation.
• Add the inverse equity sleeve only if a second hard trigger fires.
AIZero of four hard triggers is on, so the regime stays risk-on even after a 3.53-point VIX jump to 19.99. Three internals are on watch — stock-bond correlation, the VIX 9-day ratio and a rising gold/copper pair — which is early strain, not a crash checklist. The live risks are Hormuz and AI credit, and the book already holds gold and commodities for that mix.
A position, not a verdict. Near the high is not a buy signal.
Chart.js, from this issue and stored issues. Each axis is labeled on the chart.
TradingView
This heatmap is TradingView, with its own data and its mark left in place. It is not the numbers in this letter. The other panels load when you choose them. If a panel is empty, their data-set name changed; the charts above still stand.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 1 minFriday's break was American, not global: the Nasdaq fell 2.15% to 26,140.03 on CoreWeave's debt stress while the Stoxx 600 rose 0.72% and Brent settled at 109.86.
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Friday's break was American, not global: the Nasdaq fell 2.15% to 26,140.03 on CoreWeave's debt stress while the Stoxx 600 rose 0.72% and Brent settled at 109.86.
Bridge to Today
Monday's Nikkei is already down 0.62% at 64,916.70; the US reopen decides whether Friday's tech break extends or fades.
UST 10y5.098%
3%6%
Now. The Nasdaq's move on this tape, and the 10-year. Yesterday's close stays in the sentence above.
Stocks
StocksUS Equity Ideas 1 minIBN BUY
US EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
IBNNEW
ICICI Bank Limited
7.2
+1.87%
IBNVALUEBUYNEW
ICICI Bank Limited • Financials
7.2/10Conviction
$29.99
▲ +1.87%
Over the next few weeks the ADR can extend Friday's gain if 18% NII growth holds; JPMorgan's new INR 1,800 target is the line to beat.
NII +18% y/yJPM PT INR 1800Above 50-day
Fundamentals
8/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
7/10
52-week range
JPMorgan kept Overweight and raised the local target to INR 1,800 from 1,735 on 18 Oct.Reported Q2 NII was Rs 253.4 billion, up 18% year on year and 2% above JPMorgan.PAT was Rs 148.4 billion, up 20% year on year, with CET1 at 16.01%.
Mkt Cap
$105.3B
P/E
18.1
Invalidation: Daily close under the 50-day at $28.98.
TradingView's price for IBN. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 1 min
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 5 minEnergy, staples and health still clear both averages and beat SPY. QQQ, XLK and SMH stay exits under the 50-day.
TREND FOLLOW
Energy, staples and health still clear both averages and beat SPY. QQQ, XLK and SMH stay exits under the 50-day.
4 of 18 universe names closed above their 50-day, and only 3 also beat SPY over 20 sessions.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR
8
+2.52%
XLP
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR
6.3
+1.08%
XLV
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
6
-0.27%
XLU
Utilities Select Sector SPDR
4.5
+1.34%
QQQ
Invesco QQQ
3
-2.50%
XLK
Technology Select Sector SPDR
3
-3.02%
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
2.5
-3.41%
XLEENERGYBUY🔥 7-issue streak
Energy Select Sector SPDR
8/10Conviction
$68.24
▲ +2.52%
Over the next 2–4 weeks stay with energy beta while XLE holds its 50-day; relative strength versus SPY is the tell.
Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Brent still above $100 after the waiver.Energy leadership is consensus, RS is not.Above 50 and 200; 20-day RS vs SPY +5.9pp.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
9/10
Brent still above $100 after the 19 Oct waiverXLE's close is 7.4% above a rising 50-day
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day near $63.54.
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
Staples can keep working if Friday's rotation out of tech extends; the rule is the 50-day, not a staples headline.
Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Friday's rotation into defensives is the cStaples leadership is a hedge, not a new sAbove 50 and 200; 20-day RS vs SPY +5.6pp.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
8/10
XLP rose 1.08% Friday as XLK fell 3.02%Close is above both the 50-day and the 200-day
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day near $84.09.
TradingView's price for XLP. It is not the last print in this letter.
Health remains a trend sleeve: it cleared both averages even though Friday's price was slightly down.
Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.No fresh health headline; the trend is theDefensive rotation, not a drug catalyst.Above 50 and 200; 20-day RS vs SPY +4.7pp.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
8/10
XLV is above its 50-day and its 200-day20-day return beats SPY even after a 0.27% Friday dip
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day near $170.00.
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
Utilities are above the 50-day, but the 50-day is still under the 200-day, so this is not an entry.
Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Utilities rose 1.34% Friday, nothing datedRules sleeve — factor not scored.Above the 50-day, but the 50-day is under
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
5/10
XLU rose 1.34% on Friday50-day remains below the 200-day
Invalidation: Not a buy until the 50-day crosses above the 200-day.
TradingView's price for XLU. It is not the last print in this letter.
QQQ closed under its 50-day. The trend rule is an exit, whatever the next AI headline says.
Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.AI-credit stress is why it broke, not a neRules sleeve — factor not scored.Close is under the 50-day; 20-day RS is ne
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
3/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
Friday close 2.50% lower, under the 50-dayCoreWeave credit stress hit the Nasdaq complex
Invalidation: Exit stands until a close back above the 50-day.
TradingView's price for QQQ. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLK lost its 50-day on the AI-credit selloff. That is an exit, not a dip to buy.
Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Same AI-credit tape as QQQ.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Close under the 50-day after a 3.02% Frida
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
3/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
XLK fell 3.02% on FridayClose is under the 50-day
Invalidation: Exit stands until a close back above the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XLK. It is not the last print in this letter.
SMH is the chip expression of the same break. Under the 50-day means exit.
Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Rules sleeve — factor not scored.Chip beta is the unwind, not a fresh entryRules sleeve — factor not scored.Under the 50-day; 20-day RS vs SPY is -6.0
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
3/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
2/10
SMH fell 3.41% on Friday20-day return lags SPY by about 6 points
Invalidation: Exit stands until a close back above the 50-day.
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
HOLD USD vs EUR — EURUSD is unchanged enough that a dollar add is not worth the click.
Conviction 20%
Crypto
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minUS spot bitcoin ETFs lost $228.4 million in the week to 16 Oct and ether ETFs lost $320.1 million. Bitcoin at 82,809.60 is just above its 50-day; ether at 2,431.46 is not.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
US spot bitcoin ETFs lost $228.4 million in the week to 16 Oct and ether ETFs lost $320.1 million. Bitcoin at 82,809.60 is just above its 50-day; ether at 2,431.46 is not.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
4.5
+0.97%
ETH-USD
Ether
3
+0.94%
BTC-USDHOLD🔥 52-issue streak
Bitcoin
4.5/10Conviction
$82809.60
▲ +0.97%
Over the next week bitcoin can chop above its 50-day, but a $228.4 million weekly ETF outflow is not a reason to add.
No on-chain supply series this run.Spot ETFs lost $228.4m in the week.The flow print is the catalyst, and it is Still the institutional asset; the bid lea82,809.60 is 1.6% above the 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
3/10
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
6/10
Farside week through 16 Oct: net outflow $228.4 millionPrice is 1.6% above its 50-day at the 19 Oct bar
Invalidation: Daily close under the 50-day.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Ether stays a watch while it sits under its 50-day and spot ETFs lost $320.1 million in the week to 16 Oct.
No on-chain supply series this run.Ether ETFs lost $320.1m; ETHA led.Outflows are the event; no upgrade dated tThe adoption story is not confirmed by flo2,431.46 is 4.7% under the 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
2/10
Catalyst
3/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
3/10
Ether ETFs lost $320.1 million in the week through 16 OctETHA accounted for $299 million of that outflow
Invalidation: A close above the 50-day would end this caution.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 2 minBrent is 107.17 after a waiver dip from Friday's 109.86 settle, while copper is up 1.32% to 6.6175.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Brent is 107.17 after a waiver dip from Friday's 109.86 settle, while copper is up 1.32% to 6.6175.
Brent is off Friday's 109.86 settle after a Russia-sanctions waiver, while copper rose 1.32% alongside a 4.5% China Q3 GDP print. If that split holds into the…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BZ=F
Brent
7
-2.45%
HG=F
Copper
5.8
+1.32%
BrentENERGYWATCH🔥 19-issue streak
BZ=F
7/10Conviction
$107.17
▼ -2.45%
Into the US open, treat Brent as a watch above $100: the waiver dipped the price, but Hormuz flows are still the constraint.
Kpler: Gulf flows ~8.5 mbd vs 20 mbd.No COT positioning this run.19 Oct waiver vs still-broken Hormuz.The Hormuz premium is now the consensus.107.17 is still 8.4% above the 50-day.
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
7/10
A 19 Oct US waiver on Russian sanctions knocked Brent off Friday's 109.86 settle.Kpler still has Gulf crude flows near 8.5 million barrels a day versus more than 20 million the prior week.
Invalidation: Two daily settles under $100.
TradingView's price for BZ=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
If China's 4.5% Q3 GDP print is the growth bid, copper can stay firm even while Brent digests the waiver.
China Q3 GDP 4.5%, only a slight beat.No COT positioning this run.GDP print is the dated Monday catalyst.A one-day growth bid, not a new cycle.6.6175 is only 0.6% above the 50-day.
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
6/10
China's economy grew 4.5% in the third quarter, slightly above the AFP survey, released 19 Oct.Copper rose 1.32% on 19 Oct while Brent fell.
Invalidation: Daily close under 6.50.
TradingView's price for HG=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 4 min30d hit rate 57%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
No book with a live quote is included in this bar.
Tech US
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
22 On Track · 8 Lagging · 6 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
OXY (2026-10-02)
6.8/10
+7.8%
On Track
ACN (2026-10-02)
6.8/10
+8.2%
On Track
ABNB (2026-10-02)
6/10
+8.2%
On Track
UNH (2026-10-15)
7.2/10
+1.5%
On Track
CEG (2026-10-01)
6.5/10
+6.8%
On Track
MU (2026-10-01)
6.8/10
-17.5%
Stopped Out
NVDA (2026-10-03)
7/10
-8.5%
Stopped Out
HPE (2026-10-03)
6.6/10
-20.5%
Stopped Out
MSFT (2026-10-06)
7.25/10
+0.7%
On Track
TEVA (2026-10-11)
6.3/10
+1.0%
On Track
TSM (2026-10-16)
6.3/10
-2.3%
Lagging
CRM (2026-10-13)
6.7/10
+2.9%
On Track
FSLR (2026-10-13)
6/10
-3.9%
Lagging
TRV (2026-10-17)
7.2/10
+0.0%
On Track
AA (2026-10-17)
6.2/10
+0.0%
On Track
GS (2026-10-14)
6.5/10
-1.2%
Lagging
PTC (2026-10-05)
7.7/10
+34.0%
On Track
HUM (2026-10-09)
7/10
+6.7%
On Track
SNPS (2026-09-26)
7/10
+6.8%
On Track
JCI (2026-09-26)
7/10
-3.1%
Lagging
DG (2026-09-25)
7/10
+9.7%
On Track
COST (2026-09-25)
6.8/10
+10.3%
On Track
LLY (2026-09-28)
7.3/10
+6.2%
On Track
SNX (2026-09-28)
7.3/10
-6.2%
Lagging
TFX (2026-09-28)
6.3/10
+6.8%
On Track
TLN (2026-09-20)
6.8/10
+21.4%
On Track
LRCX (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
-8.4%
Stopped Out
COIN (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
-10.9%
Stopped Out
JNJ (2026-09-30)
6.2/10
-4.5%
Lagging
NICE (2026-09-30)
6.7/10
+5.0%
On Track
NFLX (2026-09-30)
7/10
+0.3%
On Track
BKR (2026-09-30)
6.3/10
-0.4%
Lagging
META (2026-09-22)
7.4/10
-4.3%
Lagging
ARHS (2026-09-22)
6.2/10
+13.7%
On Track
SNDK (2026-09-23)
7.3/10
-31.1%
Stopped Out
AAPL (2026-09-23)
6.5/10
+1.1%
On Track
Euro Only
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
11 On Track · 8 Lagging · 1 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
ASML.AS (2026-10-15)
6.8/10
-2.5%
Lagging
SAF.PA (2026-10-01)
6.5/10
-6.5%
Lagging
STLAP.PA (2026-10-03)
6.5/10
+0.5%
On Track
TTE.PA (2026-10-06)
6.3/10
+7.5%
On Track
DEMANT.CO (2026-10-11)
6.8/10
+5.3%
On Track
AIXA.DE (2026-10-18)
6/10
+0.1%
On Track
NDX1.DE (2026-10-16)
7/10
+3.4%
On Track
DHL.DE (2026-10-17)
7/10
-0.4%
Lagging
TSCO.L (2026-10-09)
7.2/10
+10570.0%
On Track
ATE.PA (2026-09-26)
7.3/10
+9.8%
On Track
KCR.HE (2026-09-25)
7.3/10
-4.5%
Lagging
GLEN.L (2026-09-27)
6.3/10
+4.5%
On Track
KLR.L (2026-09-28)
7/10
-7.7%
Lagging
CRDA.L (2026-09-28)
6/10
+11.1%
On Track
ORSTED.CO (2026-09-19)
6.8/10
-6.3%
Lagging
GLE.PA (2026-09-21)
6.7/10
-13.4%
Stopped Out
BEZ.DE (2026-09-21)
7/10
+32.5%
On Track
TUI1.DE (2026-09-22)
6.8/10
+2.1%
On Track
SAVE.ST (2026-09-22)
6/10
-2.0%
Lagging
SAN.MC (2026-09-23)
7/10
-6.7%
Lagging
Penny Plays
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Trend Follow
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
3 On Track · 2 Lagging · 1 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
XLE (2026-10-15)
6.7/10
+0.9%
On Track
XLV (2026-10-15)
7/10
+1.6%
On Track
XLP (2026-10-15)
6.7/10
+1.8%
On Track
XLK (2026-10-15)
5.3/10
-3.7%
Lagging
QQQ (2026-10-15)
5.3/10
-2.6%
Lagging
SMH (2026-10-03)
7/10
-14.4%
Stopped Out
Commodities
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Track Record
1 On Track · 2 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BNO (2026-10-01)
6.5/10
+11.8%
On Track
SLV (2026-09-19)
7/10
-14.0%
Stopped Out
CORN (2026-09-22)
6.8/10
-10.3%
Stopped Out
Crypto
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +56.90%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.