market_pulse — Sunday run: equity/index/FX/commodity marks are verified 2026-07-31 closes (yahoo); BTC/ETH are live Sunday CoinGecko prints. change_pct computed from aggregator history throughout.
us_equity_ideas — Fundamentals waterfall circuit-open across all providers (sec_edgar/fmp/simfin) — P/E, market cap, ROE, 52w fields null for all ideas. Aggregator /news returned zero items for FRO; its catalysts (ADNOC $590M VLCC purchase, Bahri Cape diversion) are web-sourced with citations — a trackable coverage gap.
eu_equity_ideas — eu_fundamentals_gap: aggregator EU price histories stale (NWG.L/ACA.PA prior-session rows 5+ days old); ACA.PA Friday close €19.27 (eodhd) vs press €19.41 — aggregator mark published, price_change_pct nulled. Covestro (1COV.DE) dropped despite a fresh FY26 guidance raise: Xetra delisted the line in Dec 2025 and no reliable price series exists for verification or dispatch.
penny_plays — /sentiment (apewisdom) returned zero rows for every candidate and /altdata/insider was empty/circuit-open — Social_Momentum and Institutional_Signal scored 0 by absence. SPAI researched and rejected at 5/10 (no insider/social signal; nearest dated catalyst Aug 13); EOSE rejected, Golden Dome award (Jul 15) aged out. Penny section stays healthcare-only today because no second theme cleared the 6/10 bar.
yesterday_retrospective — Aggregator sector and Asia/EU index histories lag 1-3 sessions; Friday closes reconstructed from AP/Sharecast/Nikkei/Yahoo. XLB/XLRE/XLC unverifiable (stooq anti-bot) — rotation read uses the 8 of 11 SPDRs that priced.
forex_rebalancing — Norges Bank's most recent guidance is 2026-06-17 (46 days) — NOK score capped per the recency rule and flagged in its why field. Aggregator /predictions returned stale 2025-dated markets; September-hike odds sourced from press (Fed funds futures ~80%).
crypto_landscape — Crypto marks are live Sunday CoinGecko prints while the rest of the artifact uses Friday closes; XRP-USD aggregator history has a Jul 24→Aug 1 gap, so its price_history is 6 points, not 10.
portfolio_reality_check — INTC avg_price 439.07 backend aggregation bug persists (3rd consecutive run; every real INTC trade is $81-100) — reported verbatim in holdings; verdicts computed from actual trade prices. GOSS stop-loss SELL already queued by nl_2026-08-01_072429 (PENDING over the weekend) — duplicate dispatch skipped deliberately. Hit rate covers 14 days of post-reset history (reset 2026-07-19), not a full 30-day window.
GeneralMarket Pulse 3 minFriday's rally was narrower than the headline: the Nasdaq rose 1.00% to 25,373.85 on Amazon's +15.3% earnings reaction while decliners outnumbered advancers 1.3-to-1 and the Russell 2000 fe…
MARKET PULSE
Friday's rally was narrower than the headline: the Nasdaq rose 1.00% to 25,373.85 on Amazon's +15.3% earnings reaction while decliners outnumbered advancers 1.3-to-1 and the Russell 2000 fell 0.50% — an index-level win, not a market-level one. The bond market is the tape that matters into next week: the 10-year jumped 8bp to 4.745% and the 30-year hit 5.26%, a 19-year high, as $100 Brent forces a stagflationary repricing that equity multiples have not yet absorbed. OPEC+ ratifies its final 188k bpd September quota hike today (Aug 2) with a pause signaled through year-end, and how crude opens Sunday night sets Monday's tone. After that, everything bends toward Friday's August 7 US jobs report — the first print that can move September-hike odds, currently ~80%, decisively in either direction.
• Trim high-beta post-earnings winners toward a 15% cash target — AMZN/MSFT strength is the source of funds, not the thing to add to
• Buy 1-2% of portfolio notional in VIXY or SPY put spreads while VIX sits at 15.99 in contango — convexity is cheap precisely because the tape feels calm
• Add SH as a portfolio-level index short rather than selling core energy/tanker winners that benefit from the same shock
• Rotate into defensives only after HY OAS clears 3.5% — at 2.84% credit is not confirming equity stress yet
AIThe regime reads risk-on — VIX 15.99, curve +47bp, HY OAS 2.84%, S&P 500 just 1.6% off its June high — but today's top two risks (Hormuz supply shock, hawkish central banks) gap rather than drift: Brent's $100 print and the 30-year at 5.26% happened while the VIX fell six points. That divergence is exactly when hedges are cheapest: a Hormuz-closure headline or a hot August 7 jobs print would flip two or more triggers in a single session, and options markets already show the hedging split (equity put/call 0.865 vs index 1.132, SKEW 139.6) — institutions are buying tail protection the spot VIX can't see. Keep the checklist armed, hedges small and cheap, and let credit confirm before any real de-grossing.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 5 minFriday was a relief rally with a split personality: Amazon's +15.3% earnings reaction (AWS +37%) dragged the Nasdaq up 1.00% even as decliners outnumbered advancers 1.3-to-1 and Apple sank…
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Friday was a relief rally with a split personality: Amazon's +15.3% earnings reaction (AWS +37%) dragged the Nasdaq up 1.00% even as decliners outnumbered advancers 1.3-to-1 and Apple sank 7.4% on a supply-constrained guide. Asia had set the risk-on tone with KOSPI's record +17.9% rebound, while Europe surrendered a fresh intraday record to close flat on month-end profit-taking. Underneath, the bond market kept flashing warning — the 30-year Treasury hit 5.26%, its highest since 2007, as oil-driven inflation fear outmuscles the equity bounce.
How Yesterday Unfolded
Asia Asia led the global rebound: KOSPI closed +17.91% at 6,595.45 — its largest single-day gain ever — as Samsung (+28%) and SK Hynix (+30%) snapped back from a rout that had halved memory names, tracking Thursday's US tech surge. Tokyo's Nikkei added 4.03% to 64,362.02 with Advantest and SoftBank limit-up at one point, paring gains after the BoJ held at 1.0% as expected; Hang Seng +0.1%, Shanghai +0.7%.
Europe Europe hit records then faded: the Stoxx 600 touched an all-time intraday high of 656.67 before closing -0.12% at 649.19 on month-end profit-taking, the FTSE 100 likewise printed 10,989.45 then closed -0.27% at 10,868.05, while DAX (+0.07%) and CAC (+0.3%) held small gains. Energy was the best Stoxx sector (+1.2%) as oil firmed, and Eurozone July inflation ticked up on energy costs — a quiet reminder that the ECB's September-hike-live stance has data behind it.
US The US session was a two-stock story: Amazon +15.32% to $271.58 (EPS $5.75 vs $1.99 consensus, AWS +37% to $42.2B) against Apple -7.35% to $308.91 (September-quarter revenue guided to 9-11% growth vs 11.8% expected, on supply constraints), leaving the S&P 500 +0.70% at 7,489.72 despite decliners beating advancers 1.3-to-1. Exxon ($14.5B, four-year high) and Chevron ($12.1B, ~5x y/y) printed windfall oil profits, memory names gave back the Asia bounce (MU -5.9%), and the 10-year rose 8bp to 4.745% with the 30-year at 5.26% — the highest since 2007 — as oil-fed inflation fears lifted September-hike odds to ~80%.
Defensives (XLU -0.87%, XLP -0.47%, XLV -0.71%) → Consumer discretionary (XLY +2.99%) and energy (XLE +1.07%) · XLY +2.99% and XLE +1.07% vs XLU -0.87%, XLP -0.47%, XLV -0.71% on Friday (8 of 11 SPDRs verified; XLB/XLRE/XLC unpriced)
Amazon's blowout pulled the entire discretionary complex higher while $100 Brent and Exxon/Chevron windfall profits kept the energy bid alive; staples, utilities and health de-rated as the 10-year jumped 8bp to 4.745% — the market is paying for cyclical cash flows, not duration.
Unproven AI spenders (AAPL -7.35%, MU -5.90%, SNDK -5.09%) → Proven AI monetizers (AMZN +15.32%, GOOGL +6.73%, MSFT +3.02%) · AMZN +15.32% / GOOGL +6.73% / MSFT +3.02% vs AAPL -7.35% / MU -5.90% on the same session
Friday's verdict was specific: capital moved only toward names that have already converted AI capex into revenue acceleration (AWS +37%, Microsoft Cloud +27%) and punished supply-constrained hardware and memory multiples — dispersion inside mega-cap tech, not a blanket tech bid.
Key Drivers
Amazon's Q2 blowout re-rates the AI-monetization trade — EPS $5.75 vs $1.99 consensus, revenue $200.6B (+20%), AWS +37% to $42.2B with a ~$220B 2026 capex guide — shares +15.32%, carrying Nasdaq +1.00% and S&P +0.70%.
Apple's supply-constrained guide caps the hardware complex — September-quarter revenue growth guided to 9-11% vs 11.8% consensus on component constraints; shares -7.35% to $308.91, the biggest S&P decliner, with memory names (MU -5.9%) selling in sympathy.
Windfall oil profits at Exxon and Chevron — Exxon Q2 profit $14.5B (four-year high, EPS $3.52 missed $3.60 est) and Chevron $12.1B (~5x y/y, EPS $6.06 beat $5.56; refining +500%) as US crude averaged $92.45 in Q2 — the war premium is arriving in cash, not just multiples.
Bond market reprices to a stagflationary stance — The 30-year Treasury hit 5.26% (highest since 2007) and the 10-year closed at 4.745% as Brent's $100 print pushed September rate-hike odds to ~80% — yields rose on a green equity day, which is the tell that inflation, not growth, is driving rates.
Bridge to Today
OPEC+ ratifies its final 188k bpd quota hike today with a pause signaled through year-end — if crude gaps on the Sunday-night open with Hormuz transits still near 10% of pre-war, watch whether Monday extends Friday's energy-over-defensives rotation or snaps it.
Over the next 2-4 weeks, expect AMZN to hold the bulk of Friday's +15.3% re-rating and grind toward $290: the print answered the market's one question — AWS accelerated to +37% ($42.2B) with EPS $5.75 vs $1.99 consensus…
Q2 (Jul 30 AH): AWS +37% fastest in 18 quarters; EPS $5.75 vs $1.99; revenue $200.6B +20%Friday +15.32% to $271.58 — largest one-day gain in years, carried Nasdaq +1.00%2026 capex guide ~$220B framed as demand-backed by management
Target
$290.00
Conviction 75%
TradingView's price for AMZN. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next quarter, expect MSFT to keep closing the gap toward the Street's fresh $640-650 targets: Azure crossed $100B annualized (+43% constant-currency) with ~45% guided for next quarter, and the post-print raises…
Goldman PT to $640 (from $610), Wells Fargo to $650 (from $625) — post-Q4 raises reported Aug 1Azure >$100B annualized run-rate, +43% cc, ~45% guided for the coming quarterFriday +3.02% follow-through to $464.72 after best one-day move since 2008
Target
$560.00
Conviction 75%
TradingView's price for MSFT. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next quarter, expect CVX to keep re-rating toward $220 as the market prices a durable war-premium into product cracks: Friday's Q2 was a clean beat — adjusted EPS $6.06 vs $5.56, net income ~5x y/y to $12.1B,…
Q2 (Jul 31): adj EPS $6.06 vs $5.56 est; net income $12.1B ~5x y/yRefining profit +500% to $4.9B on gasoline/diesel cracksOPEC+ today Aug 2: final quota hike then pause — no physical relief
Target
$220.00
Conviction 70%
TradingView's price for CVX. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next two quarters, expect Frontline to keep converting the dual-chokepoint crisis into windfall charter rates and premium asset sales: Friday brought confirmation that ADNOC bought five of its VLCCs for ~$590M…
ADNOC buys five Frontline VLCCs for ~$590M (reported Jul 31)Q2 coverage: 82% of VLCC days locked at $181.7k/day vs $24.3k breakevenBahri Cape-of-Good-Hope diversion (Jul 31) adds ~2 weeks per voyage
Target
$48.00
Conviction 70%
TradingView's price for FRO. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next two quarters, expect NatWest's highest-since-2008 re-rating to keep grinding while the buyback machine runs: Friday's H1 beat — operating profit before tax £4.3bn, better than expected, full-year guidance…
H1 (Jul 31): operating PBT £4.3bn beat; FY26 outlook upgradedBuybacks brought forward; weekly buyback notices already runningBoE 6-3 hold at 3.75% (Jul 30) with hike-ready guidance — NII stays high
Target
$8.50
Conviction 65%
TradingView's price for NWG.L. It is not the last print in this letter.
ACA.PAVALUEBUY🔥 2-issue streak=
Crédit Agricole S.A. • Financials
6.5/10Conviction
$19.27
▲ N/A
Over the next quarter, expect ACA to re-test its 52-week high (~€19.8) as record revenue meets a still-cheap multiple: Friday's Q2 delivered record revenue of €7.36bn (+7.7%) with net income of €2.05bn, ahead of the…
Q2 (Jul 31): record revenue €7.36bn +7.7%; NI €2.05bn vs ~€1.9bn consensusLCL retail NII recovery continues; Italian retail growingECB September-hike-live stance = sector NII tailwind
Target
$21.00
Conviction 65%
TradingView's price for ACA.PA. It is not the last print in this letter.
PHIA.ASRECOVERYBUYNEW
Koninklijke Philips N.V. • Health Care
6.5/10Conviction
$22.74
▲ +0.04%
Over the next week, expect Philips to be Monday's cleanest European reaction trade: the company raised FY26 adjusted-EBITA and free-cash-flow guidance over the weekend after a 16.4% Q2 margin print, and Friday's €22.74…
FY26 adjusted-EBITA and free-cash-flow guidance raised (weekend print, Aug 1)Q2 adjusted EBITA margin 16.4%, incl. ~4.2pp one-off US tariff refundMonday Aug 3 is the first trading session able to price the raise
Target
$26.00
Conviction 65%
TradingView's price for PHIA.AS. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 2 minPYPD BUY · STXS BUY
PENNY PLAYS
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
PYPD=
PolyPid Ltd.
7
+5.15%
STXS=
Stereotaxis, Inc.
6
-5.26%
PYPDPENNYBUY🔥 6-issue streak=
PolyPid Ltd. • Health Care
7/10Conviction
$4.29
▲ +5.15%
Over the next four months into the November 28 PDUFA, expect PYPD to stair-step toward $7 as the D-PLEX100 approval path de-risks: the FDA's Priority Review acceptance (Jul 29 — a quarter ahead of the company's own…
Narrative
2/2
Catalyst
2/2
Balance sheet
1/2
Price suppression
1/2
Institutional
1/1
Social
0/1
PDUFA target action date: November 28, 2026Q2 earnings August 12 — cash runway and any AdComm scheduling$15M Azurity milestone received (completes $30M upfront/near-term)
Target
$7.00
PYPD between stop and target4.29
2.57
Stop on the left, target on the right. Red and green mark those ends only. The tick is the last price.
TradingView's price for PYPD. It is not the last print in this letter.
STXSPENNYBUY🔥 4-issue streak=
Stereotaxis, Inc. • Health Care
6/10Conviction
$1.26
▼ -5.26%
Over the next two quarters, expect STXS to re-rate toward $3.50 if the August 11 Q2 print shows the Robocath integration landing — and Friday's -5.3% slide to $1.26 raises the stakes on that print, not the thesis. The…
Narrative
2/2
Catalyst
2/2
Balance sheet
1/2
Price suppression
1/2
Institutional
0/1
Social
0/1
Q2 2026 earnings August 11 — first combined-company print and synergy guidanceRobocath acquisition closed Jul 7 ($20M upfront + up to $25M earnout) — integration milestones through H2Large-cap surgical-robotics read-across lifting the category
Target
$3.50
STXS between stop and target1.26
0.83.5
Stop on the left, target on the right. Red and green mark those ends only. The tick is the last price.
TradingView's price for STXS. It is not the last print in this letter.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 3 minJuly closed with a split institutional tape: bitcoin ETFs posted their first positive month since April (+$172.4M) yet bled -$265.4M on Friday alone — the largest daily exit since July 13 —…
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
July closed with a split institutional tape: bitcoin ETFs posted their first positive month since April (+$172.4M) yet bled -$265.4M on Friday alone — the largest daily exit since July 13 — while ether ETFs logged a fourth straight weekly inflow and beat BTC for the month ($365.2M), extending the wrapper-market rotation from store-of-value toward yield-bearing exposure. XRP funds quietly crossed $1B in combined assets with a fifth consecutive positive month.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC
Bitcoin
5
+0.71%
ETH
Ethereum
6
+0.64%
XRP
XRP
4.5
+1.41%
BTCHOLD🔥 26-issue streak
Bitcoin
5/10Conviction
$63491.00
▲ +0.71%
Into next week, expect BTC to keep trading as a war-and-rates thermometer rather than a monetary asset: Friday's -$265.4M ETF outflow (largest since July 13) landed right after Brent's $100 print, saying institutions…
US jobs report Aug 7 — the hike-odds swing factorOPEC+ today Aug 2 — the Sunday-night oil open sets the risk toneDaily ETF flow tape: two-plus consecutive inflow days needed to upgrade this stance
Conviction 50%
TradingView's price for BTC. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 2-4 weeks, expect ETH to keep outperforming BTC on the flow channel even if the macro caps absolute upside: ether ETFs took in +$365.2M in July against BTC's +$172.4M — a fourth straight weekly win — with…
Weekly ETF flow print — a fifth straight ETH-over-BTC week extends the rotationStaking-yield product uptake inside the wrappersUS jobs Aug 7 — the macro gate for absolute upside
Conviction 60%
TradingView's price for ETH. It is not the last print in this letter.
WATCH, not a position: XRP-linked ETFs crossed $1B in combined assets this week with a fifth consecutive positive month (+$27.3M in July) — steady, low-drama accumulation while bitcoin products swing between $200M days…
XRP ETF monthly flows — first $100M month is the upgrade triggerAny bank-settlement/RLUSD integration headlineWeekly flow table vs BTC/ETH divergence persistence
Conviction 45%
TradingView's price for XRP. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 3 minGold holds $4,107 into Friday's jobs print with record central-bank buying underneath it, copper re-tightens toward its June record, and crude waits on today's OPEC+ decision with Hormuz tr…
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Gold holds $4,107 into Friday's jobs print with record central-bank buying underneath it, copper re-tightens toward its June record, and crude waits on today's OPEC+ decision with Hormuz transits still near 10% of pre-war levels.
Gold (+0.2% to $4,107) and copper (+2.3% to $6.44) rose together Friday while the 10-year added 8bp to 4.745% and the dollar slipped 0.7% — a mix that reads as…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
GC=F
Gold
7
+0.22%
HG=F
Copper
7.5
+2.31%
CL=F
WTI Crude
5
-0.55%
SI=F
Silver
5
-0.12%
GoldPRECIOUS METALBUY🔥 26-issue streak
GC=F
7/10Conviction
$4107.00
▲ +0.22%
Into Friday's August 7 jobs report, expect gold to keep defending $4,050 and re-challenge the $4,130 July high: the WGC's Thursday print showed record Q2 central-bank buying of 289t (+74% y/y) while the dollar fell 0.7%…
US jobs report Aug 7 — a soft print pulls real yields down and re-opens $4,130+WGC (Jul 30): record Q2 central-bank buying of 289t (Poland 51t, China 33t)30-year at 5.26% (19-year high) sustains the fiscal-stress hedge bid
Conviction 70%
TradingView's price for GC=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
Expect another push at the $6.60-6.70 June record because physical tightness, not macro sentiment, drives this tape: LME nearby remains in ~$24/t backwardation, exchange stocks fell another ~10,000t last week to their…
LME backwardation ~$24/t persisting into AugustExchange stocks -10kt w/w, lowest since February; ShFE <70ktSupply guidance cuts compounding at the majors (Codelco target abandoned)
Conviction 75%
TradingView's price for HG=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
undefined · 20d illustrative range
WTI CrudeENERGYHOLD🔥 26-issue streak
CL=F
5/10Conviction
$84.67
▼ -0.55%
Today's OPEC+ decision is the pivot: ministers are set to ratify the final 188k bpd September quota hike and then pause through year-end — but with Hormuz transits at 9-10 vessels/day versus 100+ pre-war, Bahri…
OPEC+ today Aug 2: +188k bpd for September, pause signaled to 2027Kpler: Hormuz transits 9-10/day Friday vs 100+ pre-war; tanker struck near OmanBahri Cape-of-Good-Hope diversion reported Jul 31 — Saudi crude going the long way
Conviction 50%
TradingView's price for CL=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
Silver keeps trading as gold's high-beta tail — expect it to follow, not lead, into the jobs print: it closed flat at $57.59 Friday while gold's record official-sector bid is a monetary story first. A soft August 7…
US jobs Aug 7 via the real-yield channelGold's $4,130 July high is the trigger for silver betaNo independent physical-tightness signal this week
Conviction 50%
TradingView's price for SI=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
GeneralTop 5 Risks Right Now 1 min#1 Strait of Hormuz / Red Sea oil-supply shock
Watch: OPEC+ statement today Aug 2 — pause confirmation vs continued unwind
Stocks
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 5 min30d hit rate 63%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Euro Only
-1.87%
Anti-Fragile
+0.00%
Penny Plays
-4.58%
Trend Follow
+0.00%
Commodities
+0.00%
Crypto
+0.00%
Named holdings. 24 smaller positions (9.64%) are off this picture.
Tech US
Performance
Total Value
$98264.32
Cash
$54750.50
P&L
$-1735.68 (-1.74%)
Realized P&L
$-2664.87
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
AMZN
4.38
dispatched
Buy
MSFT
2.56
dispatched
Buy
CVX
6.05
dispatched
Buy
FRO
30.23
dispatched
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$8461.80
-0.7%
XOM ×120
$18715.29
+2.1%
UNH ×8.49
$3519.33
-2.7%
INTC ×14.08
$1270.08
-79.5%
MSFT ×11.91
$5535.98
+14.2%
SBUX ×11.63
$1223.66
-1.3%
CBRE ×8.29
$1217.26
-1.8%
AMZN ×4.38
$1190.23
+0.0%
+2 more holdings
Track Record
9 On Track · 5 Lagging · 1 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
ASML (2026-07-19)
7/10
-5.5%
Lagging
GOOGL (2026-07-20)
7/10
-5.2%
Lagging
INTC (2026-07-24)
7.5/10
-2.3%
Lagging
META (2026-07-28)
6.5/10
-9.2%
Stopped Out
MSFT (2026-07-28)
6.5/10
+18.1%
On Track
TSM (2026-07-19)
7/10
+1.5%
On Track
UNH (2026-07-19)
6.5/10
-2.7%
Lagging
XOM (2026-07-19)
8/10
+5.5%
On Track
INTC (2026-07-30)
7.5/10
-1.0%
Lagging
SBUX (2026-07-30)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
CBRE (2026-07-30)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
AMZN (2026-07-31)
8/10
+0.0%
On Track
PWR (2026-07-31)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
MPWR (2026-08-01)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
CVX (2026-08-01)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
Euro Only
Performance
Total Value
$98129.72
Cash
$63269.71
P&L
$-1870.28 (-1.87%)
Realized P&L
$-1870.28
TWR
-1.87%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
-1.87%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions36%
Cash64%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
NWG.L
191
dispatched
Buy
ACA.PA
69.87
dispatched
Buy
PHIA.AS
59.2
dispatched
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TTE.PA ×283
$20739.46
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
—
KER.PA ×5.3
$1553.28
—
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
—
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
—
GLE.PA ×17.29
$1402.26
—
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
—
NWG.L ×191
$1346.17
—
+2 more holdings
Track Record
11 On Track · 1 Lagging · 1 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
ASML.AS (2026-07-19)
7/10
-9.7%
Stopped Out
TTE.PA (2026-07-19)
7.5/10
+8.4%
On Track
UNA.AS (2026-07-29)
7/10
-3.1%
Lagging
KER.PA (2026-07-30)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
RR.L (2026-07-30)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
VIE.PA (2026-07-30)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
GLE.PA (2026-07-30)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
MNDI.L (2026-07-30)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
SU.PA (2026-07-31)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
UBSG.SW (2026-07-31)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
GSK.L (2026-07-31)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ACA.PA (2026-08-01)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
NWG.L (2026-08-01)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$100000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Cash100%
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Penny Plays
Performance
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$84510.79
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
TWR
-4.58%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
-4.58%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions11%
Cash89%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
PYPD
410
dispatched
Buy
STXS
1397
dispatched
Sell
GOSS
18578
—
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578
$3755.55
—
PYPD ×860
$3593.88
—
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
—
Track Record
1 On Track · 1 Lagging · 3 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
OTLK (2026-07-19)
7/10
-25.2%
Stopped Out
NRXP (2026-07-28)
6.5/10
-11.9%
Stopped Out
GOSS (2026-07-28)
6/10
-17.4%
Stopped Out
PYPD (2026-07-30)
6/10
+5.2%
On Track
STXS (2026-07-30)
7/10
-5.3%
Lagging
Trend Follow
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$100000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Cash100%
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Commodities
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$76870.31
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions23%
Cash77%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
GLD
4.31
dispatched
Buy
CPER
40.48
dispatched
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×128
$16625.19
—
GLD ×8.79
$3268.86
—
CPER ×83.09
$3235.64
—
Track Record
2 On Track · 1 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
CL=F (2026-07-19)
8/10
+4.0%
On Track
GC=F (2026-07-27)
6.5/10
-1.0%
Lagging
HG=F (2026-07-30)
6.5/10
+2.3%
On Track
Crypto
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$76809.99
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions23%
Cash77%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
ETH-USD
0.8339
dispatched
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.1970
$12825.04
—
ETH-USD ×5.45
$10364.98
—
Track Record
1 On Track · 1 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BTC (2026-07-19)
7/10
-1.8%
Lagging
ETH (2026-07-20)
6.5/10
+0.6%
On Track
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +63.16%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Penny-stock risk: very low-priced, thinly traded securities can be illiquid, volatile and easy to manipulate. Spreads can be wide, exits may be impossible at the quoted price, and you can lose your entire investment. Ideas in this category are diligence starting points, not a buy list.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.