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|
⚠ Data quality: DEGRADED
market_pulse — Wednesday 07:00 CEST run — US index/VIX/^TNX marks are Tuesday Aug 11 cash closes; EURUSD/GC=F/CL=F/BTC reflect live Wednesday prints.
eu_equity_ideas — ASML.AS live quote unavailable from Stooq; AlphaVantage €1,554 used, cross-checked vs CNBC €1,576.80 Aug 11 close.
portfolio_reality_check — Post-reset pick history still sparse (24 days since 2026-07-19); hit_rate_last_30d_pct is 0 over available post-reset window.
penny_plays — Zero penny ideas published — no sub-$5 name cleared the ≥6/10 multibagger bar.
risk_cover_playbook — VIX3M/VIX9D/MOVE/SPY live quotes unavailable from aggregator this run; stock-bond correlation computed from history only.
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THE BOTTOM LINE
|
RISK-ON
CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET is the only macro that matters today — WTI $83.72 and a second down day on the S&P (-0.32% Tue) mean the market is hedging an oil-driven inflation surprise, not pricing cuts.
Today's Top Picks
CSCO
· us_equity_ideas — Aug 12 Q4 FY26 earnings after close
ASML.AS
· eu_equity_ideas — TSMC July revenue +44.7% y/y Aug 11
AMAT
· us_equity_ideas — Aug 13 Q3 FY26 earnings after close
GLD
· commodities_outlook — Hedge hold at $402.54 into CPI
USO
· commodities_outlook — WTI $83.72 Hormuz premium
|
Biggest Risk
July CPI hot print re-ignites Fed hike odds
Probability: Medium • Impact: High
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Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $713671.52
Blended P&L: +2.32% • 30d Hit Rate: +0.00%
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YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Tuesday's session was Hormuz-hold and mega-cap tech drag: US equities fell for a second straight day (S&P -0.32% to 7,728.20, Nasdaq -0.60% to 26,445.45) after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz stays closed until its conditions are met, lifting WTI ~1.3% to $83.20 and Brent to $88.91 while Alphabet fell ~3.8%.
How Yesterday Unfolded
Asia
KOSPI led (+0.73% to 6,345.53 on Aug 11) while China/HK data was last Friday — Asian risk appetite held better than US tech despite oil firming.
Europe
European benchmarks were last Friday’s closes (Stoxx 600 660.45 on Aug 10) — the region traded before Tuesday’s US Hormuz headline but energy exporters were already bid into the US open.
US
US cash fell across the board: Dow -0.34% to 53,791.85, S&P -0.32%, Nasdaq -0.60% as oil rallied and GOOGL dropped ~3.8%; Russell 2000 bucked the trend (+0.32%).
Capital Rotation
Mega-cap tech (GOOGL -3.84%, Nasdaq -0.60%) → Energy complex (Brent +1.4% to $88.91, WTI +1.3%)
· GOOGL -3.84% vs Brent +1.4% on Aug 11; S&P -0.32%
Hormuz closure rhetoric re-priced oil faster than it de-risked equities — tech multiples took the hit.
Key Drivers
Iran: Strait of Hormuz stays closed
— Iran’s SNSC secretary said Hormuz remains shut until US behavior changes; Brent settled near $88.91 (+1.4%).
Alphabet -3.84% weighs on Nasdaq
— GOOGL reversed Monday’s bounce, dragging the Nasdaq -0.60% despite early NVDA strength.
10Y yield eased to 4.694%
— Treasury yields fell ~4bps into Wednesday CPI — bonds partially hedged the equity slip.
Bridge to Today
July CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET is the decisive test of whether Tuesday’s oil bid becomes a sustained inflation scare or fades once the print clears.
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COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Into CPI, we are de-risking commodity adds: GLD holds $402.54 (+1.0% Mon) and WTI $83.72 (+1.9% overnight) — keep GLD/USO as hedges but pause fresh BUYs until the Aug 12 print clears.
Cross-Commodity Macro Linkage
Gold flat-to-down overnight (-0.15% on GC=F) while WTI grinds +1.9% signals markets hedging an oil-driven CPI upside surprise more than pricing broad disinflation — if headline CPI tops 3.4% y/y with WTI still >$83, energy likely outruns precious metals over the next few sessions.
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Gold
PRECIOUS METAL HOLD 🔥 12-issue streak
GLD
|
$402.54
▲ +1.02%
|
Into the 8:30 a.m. CPI print, expect GLD to hold its hedge bid but not add fresh risk — conviction 7.0 HOLD at $402.54. We already carry a full GLD line in the Commodities book; gold ~$4,460 is doing its job without needing another add ahead of a binary inflation read.
⚡ July CPI Aug 12 8:30 a.m. ET ⚡ GC=F ~$4,460 Aug 12 ⚡ Hormuz oil premium ⚡ HY OAS 2.70% (Aug 7)
Invalidation: Real 10-year yields rise above 2.5% on a sustained basis post-CPI.
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WTI Crude
ENERGY HOLD 🔥 12-issue streak
USO
|
$125.92
▲ +6.73%
|
WTI at $83.72 (+1.9% overnight) keeps the Hormuz premium alive, but after USO’s +6.7% Monday and CPI today, conviction drops to 6.5 HOLD — no fresh add until we see whether headline inflation validates the oil bid or forces a unwind.
⚡ CL=F $83.72 Aug 12 ⚡ Iran Hormuz closure rhetoric Aug 11 ⚡ July CPI Aug 12 ⚡ Brent ~$88.91 Aug 11
Invalidation: WTI sustains below $75 for two consecutive weeks.
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Natural Gas
ENERGY WATCH
UNG
|
$10.14
▲ +4.11%
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UNG at $10.14 (+4.1% in the latest session) is catching up to crude’s Hormuz bid — conviction 4.0 WATCH only; nat gas can gap on weather but today’s CPI/oil binary is the wrong day to initiate.
⚡ UNG +4.1% latest session ⚡ WTI $83.72 ⚡ Summer cooling demand
Invalidation: UNG breaks below $9.00 on a warm-weather demand miss.
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MARKET PULSE
|
S&P 500
7728.2001953125
▼ -0.32%
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NASDAQ
26445.44921875
▼ -0.60%
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Dow Jones
53791.8515625
▼ -0.34%
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Russell 2K
3027.1201171875
▲ +0.32%
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VIX
15.279999732971191
▼ -1.16%
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EUR/USD
1.153802
▼ -0.06%
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Gold
4460.000000
▼ -0.15%
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Oil (WTI)
83.720001
▲ +1.85%
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Bitcoin
63718.000000
▼ -0.52%
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10Y Yield
4.684000015258789
▼ -0.32%
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Wednesday's pre-US-open tape is a CPI/oil standoff: Tuesday cash left the S&P at 7,728.20 (-0.32%) with VIX at 15.28 (-1.2%) while WTI holds $83.72 (+1.9% vs Monday) and gold ~$4,460 — Iran's Hormuz closure headline kept energy bid alive even as GOOGL (-3.8%) dragged Nasdaq -0.60%. The tell is yields easing to 4.684% (-3bps) into the print, not a clean risk-off bid. Next gate: July CPI prints today Aug 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET (consensus ~3.4% y/y headline, ~2.5% core per BLS schedule).
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US EQUITY IDEAS
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CSCO
GROWTH BUY 🔥 3-issue streak
Cisco Systems, Inc. • Technology
|
$120.43
▼ -1.75%
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Over the next 24 hours, expect CSCO to trade the Aug 12 after-close Q4 FY26 print — conviction 7.5 BUY at $120.43 (-1.8% Tue). UBS (Aug 4) flagged networking revenue >$9.6B and orders +29% y/y; the stock dipped into CPI but the AI-networking backlog conversion story is still the call.
⚡ Aug 12 Q4 FY26 earnings after close (Cisco IR Aug 5) ⚡ Guided revenue $16.7-16.9B / non-GAAP EPS $1.16-1.18 ⚡ UBS Aug 4 preview: networking beat ⚡ July CPI Aug 12 8:30 a.m. ET macro cross-current
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Mkt Cap
N/A
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P/E
N/A
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Beta
N/A
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Target
$135.00
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Conviction
7.5/10
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Invalidation: Q4 revenue misses $16.5B or product gross margin contracts below 65%.
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AMAT
GROWTH BUY 🔥 2-issue streak
Applied Materials, Inc. • Technology
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$525.61
▲ +0.67%
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Into Thursday’s fiscal Q3 print, expect AMAT to hold the WFE upcycle bid — conviction 7.0 BUY at $525.61 (+0.7% Tue). Guided $8.95B revenue; TSMC’s +44.7% July revenue read-through (Aug 11) supports tool demand ahead of the guide.
⚡ Aug 13 Q3 FY26 earnings after close ⚡ Guided revenue $8.95B (+23% y/y) ⚡ TSMC July revenue +44.7% y/y (Aug 11) ⚡ Street consensus ~$9.0B / EPS $3.39
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Mkt Cap
N/A
| |
P/E
N/A
| |
Beta
N/A
| |
Target
$580.00
| |
Conviction
7/10
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Invalidation: July-quarter revenue misses $8.7B or October guide below $9.5B.
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EU EQUITY IDEAS
|
ASML.AS
GROWTH BUY
ASML Holding N.V. • Technology
|
$1554.00
▲ +3.68%
|
Over the next week, expect ASML.AS to extend Tuesday’s +3.7% pop (€1,576.80 close per CNBC) on TSMC’s blowout July revenue (+44.7% y/y) — conviction 7.0 BUY at €1,554. The lithography backlog conversion story is the EU expression of the same AI capex cycle CSCO/AMAT capture in the US.
⚡ TSMC July revenue NT$467.58B (+44.7% y/y) reported Aug 11 ⚡ ASML +3.68% Aug 11 on Euronext (CNBC) ⚡ 2026 sales outlook raised to €43-45B (Jul 15 Q2) ⚡ Aug 12 US CPI macro cross-current
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Mkt Cap
N/A
| |
P/E
N/A
| |
Beta
N/A
| |
Target
$1700.00
| |
Conviction
7/10
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Invalidation: ASML.AS loses €1,480 support on a TSMC order slowdown headline.
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PENNY PLAYS
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FOREX REBALANCING RADAR
Base currency: EUR — every stance below is relative to holding this currency's cash instead of EUR.
| Currency (vs EUR) |
Short-term |
Medium-term |
Long-term |
| USD 🔥8 |
AVOID (-5) |
NEUTRAL (0) |
NEUTRAL (0) |
|
Expect two-sided USD into the 8:30 a.m. CPI print — hot (>3.4% y/y) revives hike odds, soft validates NFP-led cuts; 10Y at 4.684% keeps carry alive until the number lands.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces
⚠ Contrarian watch: A hot CPI (>3.4% y/y) on Aug 12 could violently unwind USD shorts if the Fed re-prices hikes — size tactically into the print.
|
| JPY 🔥15 |
SEEK (5) |
SEEK (3) |
SEEK (2) |
|
Expect yen demand on Hormuz/oil hedging and US tech softness; EUR/JPY softer as yields stay elevated but risk appetite wobbles.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces
⚠ Contrarian watch: MoF verbal intervention risk if USD/JPY rips on a hot CPI — size tactically.
|
| GBP 🔥40 |
SEEK (3) |
SEEK (3) |
NEUTRAL (1) |
|
Hold GBP carry at BoE 3.75% with oil-driven inflation risk offset by softer US labor; Aug 14 UK GDP adds a domestic catalyst.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces
|
| CHF 🔥15 |
NEUTRAL (0) |
NEUTRAL (0) |
NEUTRAL (-1) |
|
CHF hedges CPI/oil binary but offers no carry — neutral until Aug 12 CPI.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces
|
| NOK 🔥6 |
SEEK (4) |
SEEK (3) |
SEEK (2) |
|
Oil at $83.72 and Tuesday energy rally support NOK; Norges Bank decision Aug 13 adds a domestic catalyst.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces
|
Suggested rebalancing actions
DECREASE USD vs EUR — Trim USD into CPI — oil bid can re-strengthen the dollar on a hot print.
INCREASE JPY vs EUR — Add JPY as a CPI/oil hedge while US mega-cap tech slips.
INCREASE NOK vs EUR — Add NOK — WTI $83+ supports petroleum FX into Norges Aug 13.
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TOP 5 RISKS RIGHT NOW
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#1 — July CPI hot print re-ignites Fed hike odds
🔥 5
Escalating
Probability: MEDIUM
• Impact: HIGH
• Horizon: 1 day
Watch: July CPI release Aug 12 8:30 a.m. ET; Consensus ~3.4% y/y headline; Core CPI ~2.5% y/y expected
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#2 — Iran/Hormuz oil premium snaps back (WTI >$78)
🔥 11
Escalating
Probability: MEDIUM
• Impact: HIGH
• Horizon: 1-5 days
Watch: WTI $83.72 Aug 12; Brent $88.91 Aug 11; Strait of Hormuz headlines
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#3 — Labor market rolling over (NFP -23k, revisions)
🔥 5
Stable
Probability: HIGH
• Impact: HIGH
• Horizon: 1-3 months
Watch: 3-month avg payrolls +20k; Aug 12 CPI + Aug retail sales Aug 14
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#4 — Credit complacency / HY spread compression
🔥 11
Stable
Probability: MEDIUM
• Impact: MEDIUM
• Horizon: 2-4 weeks
Watch: HY OAS 2.70% (Aug 7); IG OAS 0.78%; VIX 15.28 still low
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#5 — Semicap earnings cluster disappoints (CSCO/AMAT)
New
Probability: MEDIUM
• Impact: MEDIUM
• Horizon: 2 days
Watch: CSCO Q4 FY26 Aug 12 after close; AMAT Q3 FY26 Aug 13 after close; AI order backlog commentary
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CRASH / BEAR-MARKET COVER PLAYBOOK
Regime: RISK-ON
| VIX |
15.28 / 25 |
Not Triggered
|
| 10Y-2Y spread |
0.47 / -0.2 |
Not Triggered
|
| HY OAS |
2.7 / 5 |
Not Triggered
|
| S&P 500 drawdown from 52w high |
-0.38 / -10 |
Not Triggered
|
If triggered today — do this now
• Raise cash toward 15% if CPI hot and VIX closes above 20 with oil >$83
• Add GLD/TLT if 10Y falls below 4.60% on soft CPI
• Use SH/VIXY if S&P loses 7,650 on stagflation combo
• Trim semicap beta if CSCO/AMAT guides disappoint Aug 12-13
Hedge instruments: GLD, TLT, SH, VIXY
• Target cash: 15%
Zero of four crash triggers fired (VIX 15.28, HY OAS 2.7%, curve +47bps, S&P -0.38% from highs) but CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET and WTI $83.72 argue for smaller gross risk — stay risk-on with tighter stops into the print.
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CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
BTC holds $63,718 (-0.5% overnight) despite last week’s $853M ETF inflow streak — institutional wrappers are absorbing flow but price won’t break $65k ahead of CPI. Stay HOLD on BTC/ETH until the Aug 12 inflation print clears.
Institutional Moves
BlackRock (IBIT)
U.S. spot BTC ETFs pulled in $853.5M net for the week ended Aug 7 — IBIT captured ~81% ($693M), the strongest weekly haul since mid-April per SoSoValue/CoinGlass data.
Adoption Landscape
[United States] ETH ETFs added ~$244.9M during the same Aug 3-7 window — regulated demand broadening beyond BTC-only wrappers.
Asset Ideas
|
BTC-USD
HOLD 🔥 38-issue streak
Bitcoin
|
$63718.00
▼ -0.52%
|
Into CPI, expect BTC to stay range-bound $63-65k — conviction 6.5 HOLD. ETF inflows are real but price is below the Aug 7 highs until macro clears.
⚡ ETF inflows $853M week ended Aug 7 ⚡ BTC $63,718 Aug 12 ⚡ July CPI Aug 12 8:30 a.m. ET
Invalidation: BTC closes below $58k on a weekly basis.
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|
ETH-USD
HOLD 🔥 38-issue streak
Ethereum
|
$1887.63
▲ +0.70%
|
ETH at $1,887 (+0.7%) is tracking ETF inflows but CPI is the gate — conviction 6.0 HOLD until the print.
⚡ ETH ETF +$244.9M Aug 3-7 ⚡ ETH $1,887.63 Aug 12 ⚡ July CPI Aug 12
Invalidation: ETH loses $1,750 on a weekly close.
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WHAT'S COMING UP
| 2026-08-12 |
July US CPI release 8:30 a.m. ET
· risk_top5
|
| 2026-08-12 |
CSCO Q4 FY26 earnings after close
· us_equity_ideas
|
| 2026-08-13 |
AMAT Q3 FY26 earnings after close
· us_equity_ideas
|
| 2026-08-13 |
Norges Bank rate decision
· forex_rebalancing
|
| 2026-08-14 |
UK GDP release
· forex_rebalancing
|
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PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
|
Tech US
Performance
|
Total Value
$102014.67
|
Cash
$40385.73
|
P&L
$2014.67 (+2.01%)
|
Realized P&L
$-2664.87
|
|
TWR
+2.30%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
-2.39%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
BUY
CSCO
×6.98
• dispatched
Pre-earnings add on AI networking into Aug 12 Q4 print.
BUY
AMAT
×1.57
• dispatched
Pre-earnings add on WFE upcycle into Aug 13 guide.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded for Tech US — positions priced at cost.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$8522.18
N/A
XOM ×120.40
$18330.57
N/A
UNH ×8.49
$3618.61
N/A
INTC ×14.08
$6182.42
N/A
MSFT ×11.91
$4848.05
N/A
SBUX ×11.63
$1239.82
N/A
CBRE ×8.29
$1239.81
N/A
AMZN ×4.38
$1190.23
N/A
CVX ×6.05
$1189.98
N/A
FRO ×30.23
$1190.22
N/A
PLTR ×5.87
$1095.02
N/A
MRVL ×13.67
$1073.11
N/A
CAT ×1.20
$1051.67
N/A
LLY ×1.71
$2020.43
N/A
ELF ×11.69
$1010.00
N/A
ABNB ×6.53
$989.80
N/A
TWLO ×5.12
$989.80
N/A
BRK-B ×1.78
$930.42
N/A
CSCO ×21.70
$2628.52
N/A
CRWV ×9.86
$893.57
N/A
AMAT ×3.21
$1682.42
N/A
|
|
Euro Only
Performance
|
Total Value
$116239.42
|
Cash
$54926.09
|
P&L
$16239.42 (+16.24%)
|
Realized P&L
$-1870.28
|
|
TWR
+16.24%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
-1.87%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
BUY
ASML.AS
×0.72
• dispatched
TSMC July revenue +44.7% y/y read-through for lithography demand.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded for Euro Only — positions priced at cost.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×1.58
$20496.01
N/A
TTE.PA ×282.91
$20739.46
N/A
UNA.AS ×48.50
$2832.95
N/A
KER.PA ×5.30
$1553.28
N/A
RR.L ×101.30
$1460.08
N/A
VIE.PA ×48.50
$1430.88
N/A
GLE.PA ×17.29
$1402.26
N/A
MNDI.L ×157.88
$1402.26
N/A
NWG.L ×190.73
$1346.17
N/A
ACA.PA ×69.87
$1346.48
N/A
PHIA.AS ×59.20
$1346.18
N/A
BESI.AS ×6.70
$1240.09
N/A
ENR.DE ×8.06
$1215.28
N/A
SIE.DE ×5.17
$1190.97
N/A
MSLH.L ×673.48
$2310.98
N/A
|
|
Penny Plays
Performance
|
Total Value
$95417.43
|
Cash
$84510.79
|
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
|
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
|
|
TWR
-4.58%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
-4.58%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded for Penny Plays — positions priced at cost.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
GOSS ×18577.85
$3755.55
N/A
PYPD ×859.73
$3593.88
N/A
STXS ×2738.06
$3557.21
N/A
|
|
Anti-Fragile
Performance
|
Total Value
$100000.00
|
Cash
$100000.00
|
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
|
Realized P&L
$0.0000
|
|
TWR
+0.00%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
+0.00%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
|
|
Trend Follow
Performance
|
Total Value
$100000.00
|
Cash
$100000.00
|
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
|
Realized P&L
$0.0000
|
|
TWR
+0.00%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
+0.00%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
|
|
Commodities
Performance
|
Total Value
$100000.00
|
Cash
$68094.95
|
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
|
Realized P&L
$0.0000
|
|
TWR
+0.00%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
+0.00%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded for Commodities — positions priced at cost.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
USO ×139.37
$18014.88
N/A
GLD ×23.68
$9147.88
N/A
CPER ×83.09
$3235.64
N/A
SLV ×26.87
$1506.66
N/A
|
|
Crypto
Performance
|
Total Value
$100000.00
|
Cash
$69426.36
|
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
|
Realized P&L
$0.0000
|
|
TWR
+0.00%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
+0.00%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded for Crypto — positions priced at cost.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.27
$17284.77
N/A
ETH-USD ×6.23
$11840.32
N/A
BTC ×0.02
$1448.55
N/A
|
30-day hit rate across all portfolios: +0.00%
|
|
|
This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research before investing.
Morning Alpha • Generated Wed, 12 Aug 2026 05:08:55 GMT • info@gmc-works.com
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