GeneralThe Bottom Line 1 minFri’s hot NFP (+162k) re-lifted Sep hike odds toward ~60% and cut the S&P ~0.4% — buy RTX+APH and VOD.L+IVG.MI, rotate commodities into PPLT+URA, and prefer BTC+ETH on ETF flows (already he…
THE BOTTOM LINE
RISK-ON=
Fri’s hot NFP (+162k) re-lifted Sep hike odds toward ~60% and cut the S&P ~0.4% — buy RTX+APH and VOD.L+IVG.MI, rotate commodities into PPLT+URA, and prefer BTC+ETH on ETF flows (already held, no-add).
Today's Top Picks
RTX
7.5/10
IVG.MI
7.5/10
BTC-USD
7.5/10
APH
7.5/10
PPLT
7/10
Biggest Risk
September FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥3.75–4.00%)
Probability: High • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $421086.29
Blended P&L: +5.27% • 30d Hit Rate: +55.50%
4 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 62 of 111 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 102.8%, average loss -18.7%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 2 minSaturday digest of Friday’s hot NFP (+162k): S&P 7718.60 (−0.4%), Dow −0.5%, Nasdaq −0.3%, RUT +0.2%, VIX ~14.53 as Sep hike odds re-widened toward ~60%. Next hard gate is Sep 11 CPI into t…
MARKET PULSE
Saturday digest of Friday’s hot NFP (+162k): S&P 7718.60 (−0.4%), Dow −0.5%, Nasdaq −0.3%, RUT +0.2%, VIX ~14.53 as Sep hike odds re-widened toward ~60%. Next hard gate is Sep 11 CPI into the Sep 15–16 FOMC.
Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,718.60
yday 7,747.71
▼ -0.38%
Nasdaq Composite Data
26,506.99
yday 26,584.06
▼ -0.29%
Dow Jones Data
53,414.25
yday 53,686.10
▼ -0.51%
Euro Stoxx 50 Data
6,392.93
yday 6,364.28
▲ +0.45%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
79,697.99
yday 80,864.30
▼ -1.94%
Ethereum Data
2,453.84
yday 2,512.38
▼ -2.16%
Volatility
VIX Data
14.53
yday 14.32
▲ +1.47%
VIX / VIX3M Data
0.78 ratio
yday 0.76 ratio
calm
VIX9D / VIX Data
1.05 ratio
yday 1.08 ratio
watch
Breadth
Stock-bond 20d correlation (SPY vs TLT) Data
0.38 ratio
yday 0.40 ratio
watch
Cross-asset
Average pairwise sector correlation (11 SPDRs, 20d) Data
0.20 ratio
yday 0.18 ratio
calm
Cover checks
VIX Data
14.53 / 25.00
yday 14.32
Not Triggered
Stock-bond 20d correlation (SPY vs TLT) Data
0.38 / 0.70
yday 0.40 / 0.70
Not Triggered
Avg pairwise sector correlation (11 SPDRs, 20d) Data
0.20 / 0.55
yday 0.19 / 0.55
Not Triggered
Credit stress proxy (HY OAS jump flag) Data
0.00 / 1.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AIOil/Hormuz premium + hot labor/hike path = inflationary boom, not deflationary bust — long bonds and crash hedges stay at 0; gold+commodities+cash carry the disorder hedge.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 3 minFriday’s August payrolls shocked hotter: NFP +162k vs ~53–65k consensus, unemployment 4.1%, and traders re-lifted September hike odds toward ~60% (2Y ~4.37%). Equities gave back Thursday’s…
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Friday’s August payrolls shocked hotter: NFP +162k vs ~53–65k consensus, unemployment 4.1%, and traders re-lifted September hike odds toward ~60% (2Y ~4.37%). Equities gave back Thursday’s Waller relief — S&P 7718.60 (−0.4%), Dow 53414.25 (−0.5%), Nasdaq 26506.99 (−0.3%) — while Russell 2000 managed +0.2% to 2975.65 and VIX rose to ~14.53. Oil held ~$91 WTI on US–Iran/Hormuz; gold slipped on the hike repricing.
How Yesterday Unfolded
Asia Asia into Fri digested the post-Waller USDJPY squeeze still in the mid-156s and stayed cautious ahead of the US payrolls print; risk assets waited on the labor shock rather than leading.
Europe Europe finished mixed/flat into the US open (Stoxx ~+0.1%) as traders positioned for NFP; energy stayed bid on Hormuz while rate-sensitive names softened once the hot print hit.
Hot payrolls flipped Thursday’s Waller soft-landing bid back toward a hike path — duration multiples compressed while oil/Hormuz and some small-cap catch-up held up.
Hike repricing lifted real-rate pressure on bullion even as geopolitics floors oil — metals torque fades vs energy/cash.
Key Drivers
Hot August NFP (+162k) — Nonfarm payrolls printed +162k vs ~53–65k expected with U-rate 4.1%, knocking the Waller hold narrative and lifting Sep hike odds toward ~60%.
September hike odds re-widen — After Thursday’s compression toward ~48%, Friday’s labor shock pushed Sep hike odds back toward ~60% with the 2Y near ~4.37%.
Hormuz / US–Iran oil premium — WTI held ~$91 and diesel near record ~$5.85 as geopolitics kept an energy floor under the tape even while equities sold the hike reprice.
Bridge to Today
Saturday’s tape is closed for US cash — digest Friday’s hike reprice into Sep 11 CPI and the Sep 15–16 FOMC. Prefer defense/aerospace and connector compounders over Thursday’s software chase; keep PGM/uranium torque on Hormuz/nuclear; treat BTC+ETH as flow-supported BUYs already held (no-add).
Over the next 1–2 weeks buy RTX at ~$200.79 after Jefferies’ Buy and $220 PT — defense backlog and commercial aero recovery offer duration-defense when hot NFP re-prices hike odds. Conviction 7.5; invalidation is a…
Large defense + commercial aero backlog; FJefferies Buy/$220 adds Street sponsorshipDated Jefferies Buy/$220 PT is the near-teDefense/rearmament + aero recovery narratiRTX ~$200.79; buy dips while above $185 in
Fundamentals
8/10
Sentiment / flow
7/10
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
7/10
Jefferies Buy / $220 PT on defense + aero compounderAnti-repetition vs Thu SNOW+HOOD — industrials/defense not software/fintechHot NFP / hike odds favor quality cash-flow defensives over duration software
Target
$220.00
Invalidation: Weekly close below $185 with Jefferies/Street PT cuts or a clear defense-budget scare.
TradingView's price for RTX. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 1–2 weeks buy APH at ~$82.78 (post-split) as Zacks Strong Buy on connector/content growth into AI/data-center and auto — a hardware-compounder expression when software multiples compress on hike odds.…
High-ROE interconnect compounder with diveZacks Strong Buy + post-split liquidity imPost-split accessibility + Street Strong BAI rack/content + auto electrification intAPH ~$82.78 constructive after split; mome
Fundamentals
8/10
Sentiment / flow
8/10
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
8/10
Technicals
7/10
Zacks Strong Buy on post-split APH ~$82.78AI/data-center + auto interconnect content growthAnti-rep vs SNOW+HOOD — hardware compounder not software/fintech
Target
$95.00
Invalidation: Weekly close below $74 with a clear interconnect content miss/guide cut.
TradingView's price for APH. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 2 minVOD.L BUY · IVG.MI BUY
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
VOD.LNEW
Vodafone Group
7
+2.43%
IVG.MINEW
Iveco Group
7.5
-0.07%
VOD.LVALUEBUYNEW
Vodafone Group • Communication Services
7/10Conviction
$122.30
▲ +2.43%
Over the next 1–2 weeks buy VOD.L near 122p after Goldman’s Buy and 155p PT (Sep 4) — EU telco value with self-help and yield when hike odds re-widen. Conviction 7.0; invalidation is a weekly close back below 110p with…
Scale EU/UK telco with restructuring optioGoldman Buy / 155p PT is a clear Sep 4 StrDated GS note Sep 4 is the catalyst.Telco value / self-help narrative into higVOD.L ~122p; last LSE print Sep 3 — use as
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
8/10
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
Goldman Sachs Buy / PT 155p dated Sep 4Anti-repetition vs PUB.PA+DTE.DE — UK telco value not French agency/German telco leadershipYield + self-help into a higher-for-longer tape
Target
$155.00
Invalidation: Weekly close below 110p with GS PT cut or a value-destructive deal scare.
TradingView's price for VOD.L. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 1–2 weeks buy IVG.MI at ~€14.00 into Tata’s €14.10 tender that opens Sep 7 — deal arb with industrial/truck cyclical torque. Conviction 7.5; invalidation is tender failure/withdrawal or a close back below…
Truck/industrial OEM — fundamentals secondTata tender at €14.10 anchors the bid and Tender opens Sep 7 — hard-dated M&A catalyEuropean industrial consolidation / deal-aIVG.MI ~€14.04 pinned near tender — tight
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
8/10
Catalyst
9/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
8/10
Tata €14.10 tender opens September 7, 2026Anti-rep vs PUB.PA+DTE.DE — Italian truck/industrial M&A not agency/telcoDeal spread tight to tender — event-driven EU expression
Target
$14.10
Invalidation: Tender withdrawn/fails or weekly close below €13.20 without a higher bid.
TradingView's price for IVG.MI. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 2 minBFRI HOLD · OTLK HOLD
PENNY PLAYS
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BFRI=
Biofrontera Inc.
5
+6.62%
OTLK=
Outlook Therapeutics
4.5
+2.77%
BFRIPENNYHOLD🔥 8-issue streak=
Biofrontera Inc. • Healthcare
5/10Conviction
$1.61
▲ +6.62%
Into the Sep 28 Ameluz sBCC PDUFA, BFRI remains a dated-binary watch — scores 5.0/10 (narrative+catalyst real; balance-sheet/dilution and institutional signal keep it out of buy tier). Proxy on dermatology PDT label…
Micro-cap PDT franchise — revenue path reaBinary PDUFA interest without broad institHard-dated Sep 28 PDUFA is the only near-tDermatology label-expansion narrative is cBFRI ~$1.61; watchlist only — no size into
Fundamentals
4/10
Sentiment / flow
5/10
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
FDA PDUFA for Ameluz superficial BCC dated September 28, 2026Prior revenue-growth / path-to-breakeven narrative still the setup, not a new financing
Target
$2.50
Invalidation: CRL or PDUFA delay past Sep 28 without a clear new action date.
BFRI between stop and target1.61
0.82.5
Stop on the left, target on the right. Red and green mark those ends only. The tick is the last price.
TradingView's price for BFRI. It is not the last print in this letter.
OTLK stays watchlist into a YE26 LYTENAVA launch path — scores 4.5/10 (narrative OK; financing/dilution and regulatory path keep it below buy tier). Not a chase on Fri’s bounce.
Pre-revenue / launch-stage ophthalmic — BSSpeculative micro-cap flow; not institutioYE26 LYTENAVA launch is dated but farther Wet AMD launch narrative is crowded and fiOTLK ~$0.666; watchlist only.
Fundamentals
4/10
Sentiment / flow
5/10
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
5/10
LYTENAVA US launch path targeting YE 2026Wet AMD / ophthalmic biosimilar-adjacent narrative
Target
$1.50
Invalidation: Financing crush below $0.40 or definitive CRL without a viable resubmission path.
OTLK between stop and target0.666
0.31.5
Stop on the left, target on the right. Red and green mark those ends only. The tick is the last price.
TradingView's price for OTLK. It is not the last print in this letter.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 5 minRules tape into Saturday: SMH still EXIT (below 50-day despite Fri bounce); XBI/XLE/XLV HOLD; XLB HOLD (vs SPY 20d ≤0); XLK and XLF publish BUY but capacity-gated (max 5; SMH reserved); QQQ…
TREND FOLLOW
Rules tape into Saturday: SMH still EXIT (below 50-day despite Fri bounce); XBI/XLE/XLV HOLD; XLB HOLD (vs SPY 20d ≤0); XLK and XLF publish BUY but capacity-gated (max 5; SMH reserved); QQQ EXIT not held.
Semis bounce Fri but SMH still below 50-day — EXIT intact. Energy/biotech/health leadership holds; materials lag SPY on 20d RS.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
3
+2.61%
XBI
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
6
-0.35%
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR
7
-0.87%
XLV
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
6
-1.04%
XLB
Materials Select Sector SPDR
5
-0.34%
XLK
Technology Select Sector SPDR
6
+0.70%
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust
3
+0.18%
XLF
Financial Select Sector SPDR
6
-0.79%
SMHTECHNOLOGYEXIT🔥 19-issue streak
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
3/10Conviction
$567.01
▲ +2.61%
Exit/stay flat semis while SMH remains below its 50-day (~573.97) — hard rule, no averaging down under the 50-day even after Friday’s bounce.
Semi complex still earns but digestion vs Fri bounce on thin conviction vs 50-day ruNo positive rule catalyst while below SMA5AI hardware digestion narrative dominates.Below SMA50 (573.97) — EXIT.
Fundamentals
5/10
Sentiment / flow
4/10
Catalyst
3/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
2/10
SMH vs 50-day -1.21%
Invalidation: Stay flat while below 50-day (~$573.97).
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLF BUY streak continues on rules (above SMA50, positive vs SPY 20d) but capacity-gated — max 5 with SMH reserved; publish BUY without filling.
Banks/financials benefit from higher-for-lConstructive on hike odds.Rules pass; fill blocked.NFP hike path supports net interest narratRules pass; vs SPY 1.27%.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minSpot ETF flows stayed constructive into the weekend — BTC ~$731M Sep 3 / ~$175M Sep 4; ETH +$141M Sep 3 / +$26M Sep 4 — so both BTC and ETH are BUY (ETH upgraded from HOLD) even as spot dri…
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Spot ETF flows stayed constructive into the weekend — BTC ~$731M Sep 3 / ~$175M Sep 4; ETH +$141M Sep 3 / +$26M Sep 4 — so both BTC and ETH are BUY (ETH upgraded from HOLD) even as spot drifted. Both already held → no-add.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
7.5
-1.94%
ETH-USD
Ethereum
7
-2.16%
BTC-USDBUY🔥 2-issue streak
Bitcoin
7.5/10Conviction
$79697.99
▼ -1.94%
Over the next 1–2 weeks stay BUY BTC on persistent spot ETF inflows (~$731M Sep 3, ~$175M Sep 4) even after Fri’s hike reprice — flows > one-day spot noise. Conviction 7.5; invalidation is a weekly close below $74k with…
Scarce digital commodity with ETF demand aMulti-day spot ETF inflows are the dominanDated Sep 3–4 ETF inflow prints are the caDigital gold / ETF institutionalization naBTC ~$79698; digesting Fri weakness — buy
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
8/10
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
6/10
BTC ETF ~$731M Sep 3 / ~$175M Sep 4Anti-rep continuity — BTC remains the flow leaderHike reprice digested in spot without flow collapse
Invalidation: Weekly close below $74,000 with another >$200M BTC ETF outflow session.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Upgrade ETH from HOLD to BUY after ETH ETF inflows (+$141M Sep 3, +$26M Sep 4) confirm demand alongside BTC — conviction 7.0 on flow confirmation. Invalidation is a weekly close below $2,200 with ETH ETF flipping back…
Smart-contract settlement layer with ETF aETH ETF inflows flipped constructive — upgDated Sep 3–4 ETH ETF inflow prints.ETF institutionalization + L2/activity narETH ~$2454; soft into weekend — accumulate
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
7/10
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
6/10
ETH ETF +$141M Sep 3 / +$26M Sep 4 — upgrade vs prior HOLDFlow confirmation alongside BTCAnti-rep: both majors BUY on flows, not a single-asset chase
Invalidation: Weekly close below $2,200 with ETH ETF >$100M outflow day.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 3 minWith oil already well-owned via USO and gold slipping on hike odds, today’s commodities book pivots to PGM (PPLT) and uranium (URA) torque — anti-repetition vs Friday’s GDX+SIL — while USO…
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
With oil already well-owned via USO and gold slipping on hike odds, today’s commodities book pivots to PGM (PPLT) and uranium (URA) torque — anti-repetition vs Friday’s GDX+SIL — while USO stays HOLD.
Hot NFP re-priced Sep hike odds toward ~60% and pressured bullion, but Hormuz/US–Iran still floors WTI near $91 and keeps diesel elevated. Prefer platinum…
Over the next 1–2 weeks buy PPLT at ~$16.50 as the Hormuz/PGM torque expression — platinum supply remains tight while auto/catalyst and industrial demand keep a floor even as gold slips on hike odds. Conviction 7.0;…
Physical platinum ETF tracks tight PGM supGeopolitical energy/PGM bid persists even Hormuz escalation path is the dated geopolClean PGM/industrial-metal narrative distiPPLT ~$16.5; constructive vs recent $15.8–
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
7/10
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
6/10
Hormuz/US–Iran keeps PGM industrial risk premium bidAnti-repetition vs Fri GDX+SIL — platinum not gold/silver minersPhysical PGM tightness / auto catalyst demand
Invalidation: Weekly close below $15.00 with confirmed Hormuz de-escalation and PGM inventory flush.
TradingView's price for PPLT. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 1–2 weeks buy URA at ~$46.06 as uranium spot holds elevated near the ~$96/lb narrative and utilities keep contracting — a cleaner energy-security expression than another crude add. Conviction 7.0;…
URA packs miners/producers levered to elevNuclear/energy-security bid remains constrElevated ~$96/lb spot narrative is the neaEnergy-security + nuclear renaissance narrURA ~$46.06 above recent $44–46 base after
Hold existing USO rather than add — WTI ~$91 already prices Hormuz risk and the book is oil-heavy; use PPLT/URA for fresh torque. Conviction 6.0 as a hold; invalidation for the oil thesis is WTI weekly close back under…
USO tracks WTI front — clean crude beta buGeopolitical bid still present; equity tapHormuz/US–Iran remains the oil catalyst.Oil premium well-known — diminishing margiUSO ~$141.96 near recent highs — hold, don
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
7/10
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
WTI ~$91 / diesel near records on US–IranBook already long crude beta — no-add disciplineSep FOMC/CPI path still secondary to geopolitics for oil
Invalidation: WTI weekly close below $80 with confirmed Hormuz de-escalation.
TradingView's price for USO. It is not the last print in this letter.
BoJ policy meeting (Sep 17–18) — post-yen squeeze
· forex_rebalancing
2026-09-28
BFRI Ameluz sBCC PDUFA
· penny_plays
Stocks
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 8 min30d hit rate 56%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Euro-only
+21.09%
Anti-Fragile
+0.00%
Commodities
+0.00%
Crypto
+0.00%
Named holdings. 104 smaller positions (28.64%) are off this picture.
Tech-US
Performance
Total Value
$101501.40
Cash
$13703.57
P&L
$1501.40 (+1.50%)
Realized P&L
$-3181.65
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
RTX
1.36
dispatched
Buy
APH
3.31
dispatched
Sell
INTC
14.08
—
Sell
CSCO
21.7
pending
Sell
RDDT
12.88
pending
Sell
INTU
2.61
dispatched
Sell
ESTC
4.27
pending
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$8977.99
+5.3%
XOM ×129
$20543.23
+4.3%
UNH ×8.49
$3372.75
-6.8%
INTC ×14.08
$1348.93
-78.2%
MSFT ×11.91
$5952.68
+22.8%
SBUX ×11.63
$1214.59
-2.0%
CBRE ×8.29
$1225.88
-1.1%
AMZN ×5.95
$1538.83
-4.3%
+35 more holdings
Track Record
22 On Track · 15 Lagging · 13 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
INTC (2026-07-30)
7.5/10
+6.2%
On Track
MSFT (2026-07-30)
7.5/10
+14.9%
On Track
SBUX (2026-07-30)
7.5/10
-0.8%
Lagging
CBRE (2026-07-30)
7/10
-0.5%
Lagging
AMZN (2026-07-31)
8/10
+9.9%
On Track
PWR (2026-07-31)
7.5/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
MPWR (2026-08-01)
7.5/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
CVX (2026-08-01)
7/10
+7.4%
On Track
FRO (2026-08-02)
7/10
+15.4%
On Track
PLTR (2026-08-03)
6.5/10
+48.3%
On Track
AMD (2026-08-03)
7/10
-6.0%
Lagging
VRTX (2026-08-03)
6/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
FANG (2026-08-03)
6/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
CAT (2026-08-04)
6.5/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
MRVL (2026-08-05)
7/10
+166.0%
On Track
LLY (2026-08-06)
8/10
-0.9%
Lagging
ELF (2026-08-06)
6.5/10
+24.4%
On Track
DIS (2026-08-06)
7/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
NVDA (2026-08-06)
7.5/10
+4.2%
On Track
ABNB (2026-08-07)
7.5/10
+22.2%
On Track
TWLO (2026-08-07)
7/10
+24.5%
On Track
NET (2026-08-08)
8.5/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
HALO (2026-08-09)
7.5/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
BRK-B (2026-08-10)
7.5/10
-2.6%
Lagging
CSCO (2026-08-10)
7/10
-10.6%
Stopped Out
CRWV (2026-08-10)
6.5/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
AMAT (2026-08-11)
7/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
MU (2026-08-13)
7.5/10
+5.1%
On Track
RDDT (2026-08-15)
8/10
-12.4%
Stopped Out
HD (2026-08-17)
7.5/10
-6.1%
Lagging
XOM (2026-08-18)
7.5/10
+0.5%
On Track
VLO (2026-08-18)
7/10
+6.8%
On Track
WMT (2026-08-19)
6.5/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
TGT (2026-08-20)
7.5/10
+3.1%
On Track
MRK (2026-08-20)
7/10
+0.1%
On Track
ADI (2026-08-21)
8/10
-3.7%
Lagging
ROST (2026-08-21)
7/10
+1.2%
On Track
AVGO (2026-08-22)
7/10
-3.1%
Lagging
OI (2026-08-24)
7/10
-2.1%
Lagging
INTU (2026-08-25)
7/10
-6.9%
Lagging
V (2026-08-25)
7/10
-1.0%
Lagging
CRWD (2026-08-27)
8/10
+2.9%
On Track
CRM (2026-08-28)
8/10
+4.9%
On Track
ESTC (2026-08-29)
8/10
-3.8%
Lagging
GAP (2026-08-30)
7/10
-4.9%
Lagging
SHEL (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
+1.6%
On Track
NAT (2026-08-31)
7/10
+4.9%
On Track
SLB (2026-09-01)
7/10
-4.5%
Lagging
DELL (2026-09-03)
7.5/10
+4.9%
On Track
HAL (2026-09-03)
6.5/10
-0.9%
Lagging
Euro-only
Performance
Total Value
$121086.29
Cash
$23443.87
P&L
$21086.29 (+21.09%)
Realized P&L
$-42835.98
TWR
+21.09%
Sharpe
1.58
Max DD
-15.84%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions81%
Cash19%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
IVG.MI
33.4
dispatched
Buy
VOD.L
329
—
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702
$23967.39
+0.0%
TTE.PA ×364
$26944.15
+0.0%
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
+0.0%
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
+0.0%
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
+0.0%
GLE.PA ×17.29
$1402.26
+0.0%
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
+0.0%
NWG.L ×191
$1346.17
+0.0%
+28 more holdings
Track Record
21 On Track · 7 Lagging · 8 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
RR.L (2026-07-30)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
VIE.PA (2026-07-30)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
GLE.PA (2026-07-30)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
MNDI.L (2026-07-30)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
SU.PA (2026-07-31)
7/10
+6.0%
On Track
UBSG.SW (2026-07-31)
6.5/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
GSK.L (2026-07-31)
6.5/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
ACA.PA (2026-08-01)
6.5/10
-0.7%
Lagging
NWG.L (2026-08-01)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
PHIA.AS (2026-08-02)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ASML.AS (2026-08-04)
6.5/10
+3490.9%
On Track
BESI.AS (2026-08-05)
7/10
+0.0%
Lagging
ENR.DE (2026-08-06)
7.5/10
-3.6%
Lagging
SIE.DE (2026-08-07)
7/10
-5.1%
Lagging
BP.L (2026-08-09)
7/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
MSLH.L (2026-08-10)
6.5/10
-98.0%
Stopped Out
SAP.DE (2026-08-15)
7.5/10
+3.0%
On Track
TTE.PA (2026-08-17)
7/10
-1.8%
Lagging
FLS.CO (2026-08-20)
7/10
-86.3%
Stopped Out
NSIS-B.CO (2026-08-21)
7/10
-86.6%
Stopped Out
EVD.DE (2026-08-22)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SHEL.L (2026-08-22)
6/10
-98.8%
Stopped Out
BAVA.CO (2026-08-23)
7/10
-86.6%
Stopped Out
SHL.DE (2026-08-24)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
ABN.AS (2026-08-24)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
INW.MI (2026-08-25)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
MT.AS (2026-08-25)
6.5/10
+0.0%
Lagging
DEME.BR (2026-08-27)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
EOAN.DE (2026-08-27)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
FGR.PA (2026-08-28)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
ALV.DE (2026-08-29)
6.5/10
+0.0%
Lagging
LR.PA (2026-08-31)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ENI.MI (2026-09-02)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
REP.MC (2026-09-02)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
RWE.DE (2026-09-03)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
ADYEN.AS (2026-09-03)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
Penny Plays
Performance
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578
$3755.55
+0.0%
PYPD ×1564
$6940.50
+0.0%
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
+0.0%
Track Record
1 On Track · 1 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
PYPD (2026-07-30)
6/10
+8.8%
On Track
STXS (2026-07-30)
7/10
-3.0%
Lagging
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$35000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions65%
Cash35%
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65
$25078.92
+0.3%
IEF ×108
$9936.45
-0.6%
DBC ×654
$20876.96
+4.4%
SPLV ×132
$9867.97
-1.3%
Trend Follow
Performance
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$75717.93
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Sell
SMH
5.03
pending
Buy
XLF
0.0000
—
Buy
XLK
0.0000
—
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86
$5628.13
+1.6%
SMH ×5.03
$2854.39
-4.6%
XLV ×30.27
$5190.21
-0.3%
XBI ×32
$5241.86
+0.7%
XLB ×93.53
$4904.64
-1.0%
Commodities
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$30160.74
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions70%
Cash30%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
PPLT
0.0000
—
Buy
URA
0.0000
—
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×202
$28743.40
+9.6%
GLD ×30.1
$12245.49
+4.3%
CPER ×136
$5372.73
+0.0%
SLV ×84.48
$4999.97
+0.0%
PPLT ×66.63
$1099.39
-1.1%
BNO ×35.14
$1850.57
+0.0%
URA ×23.16
$1066.69
-0.0%
UGA ×26.78
$3377.87
+0.0%
+9 more holdings
Track Record
13 On Track · 2 Lagging · 2 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
HG=F (2026-07-30)
6.5/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
GC=F (2026-07-31)
6.5/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
GLD (2026-08-03)
6.5/10
+10.4%
On Track
LIT (2026-08-04)
6.5/10
+9.7%
On Track
SLV (2026-08-06)
6.5/10
+8.0%
On Track
USO (2026-08-11)
6.5/10
+12.8%
On Track
CPER (2026-08-18)
7/10
-0.6%
Lagging
PPLT (2026-08-21)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
BNO (2026-08-21)
7/10
-1.5%
Lagging
URA (2026-08-22)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
UGA (2026-08-22)
7/10
+0.2%
On Track
CORN (2026-08-23)
6/10
+2.4%
On Track
PALL (2026-08-24)
6.5/10
+2.4%
On Track
WEAT (2026-08-24)
6/10
+6.1%
On Track
UNG (2026-08-25)
6.5/10
+3.4%
On Track
CANE (2026-08-28)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SOYB (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
Crypto
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$33411.89
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions67%
Cash33%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
BTC-USD
0.0000
—
Buy
ETH-USD
0.0000
—
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.4718
$37599.36
+15.5%
ETH-USD ×13.25
$32520.83
+12.5%
BTC ×0.0223
$1777.27
+22.7%
SOL-USD ×26.81
$2795.91
+0.0%
XRP-USD ×628
$868.24
+0.0%
Track Record
5 On Track · 1 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
ETH (2026-08-01)
6/10
+0.0%
Stopped Out
BTC (2026-08-04)
6.5/10
+26.8%
On Track
BTC-USD (2026-08-18)
6.5/10
+26.1%
On Track
ETH-USD (2026-08-20)
7/10
+11.1%
On Track
SOL-USD (2026-08-27)
6/10
+3.0%
On Track
XRP-USD (2026-08-29)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +55.50%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Penny-stock risk: very low-priced, thinly traded securities can be illiquid, volatile and easy to manipulate. Spreads can be wide, exits may be impossible at the quoted price, and you can lose your entire investment. Ideas in this category are diligence starting points, not a buy list.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.