GeneralThe Bottom Line 1 minFriday’s hot NFP (+162k) still anchors ~60% Sep hike odds into Labor Day — buy DUOL+FIVE and TKA.DE+MT.AS, rotate commodities to UGA+CANE (held no-add), and keep BTC+ETH BUY on ETF flows (n…
THE BOTTOM LINE
RISK-ON=
Friday’s hot NFP (+162k) still anchors ~60% Sep hike odds into Labor Day — buy DUOL+FIVE and TKA.DE+MT.AS, rotate commodities to UGA+CANE (held no-add), and keep BTC+ETH BUY on ETF flows (no-add).
Today's Top Picks
DUOL
7.5/10
FIVE
7.5/10
TKA.DE
7.5/10
BTC-USD
7.5/10
UGA
7/10
Biggest Risk
September FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥3.75–4.00%)
Probability: High • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $101581.71
Blended P&L: +1.58% • 30d Hit Rate: +100.00%
1 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 12 of 12 reviewed picks still on track.
GeneralMarket Pulse 2 minFriday’s hot NFP (+162k) is still the dominant regime: Sep hike odds ~60%, S&P 7718.60 (−0.4%), VIX 14.53, and 10Y ~4.78%. Oil ~$91 keeps an inflationary geopolitics overlay even as gold sl…
MARKET PULSE
Friday’s hot NFP (+162k) is still the dominant regime: Sep hike odds ~60%, S&P 7718.60 (−0.4%), VIX 14.53, and 10Y ~4.78%. Oil ~$91 keeps an inflationary geopolitics overlay even as gold slipped on the hike reprice. Next hard gate is Sep 11 CPI into the Sep 15–16 FOMC — Monday is US Labor Day (cash closed), so Tuesday’s reopen is the first US cash test of this setup.
Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,718.60
yday 7,718.60
▼ -0.38%
NASDAQ Data
26,506.99
yday 26,506.99
▼ -0.29%
Dow Jones Data
53,414.25
yday 53,414.25
▼ -0.51%
Russell 2K Data
2,975.65
▲ +0.25%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
4,476.60
▼ -0.34%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data
91.48
▲ +0.20%
Agriculture
Sugar (Teucrium Sugar) Data
11.42
▲ +0.26%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
79,771.00
yday 79,697.99
▲ +0.13%
Ethereum Data
2,504.19
yday 2,453.84
▲ +1.96%
Rates
10Y Yield Data
4.78
▲ +0.46%
10Y-2Y (T10Y2Y) Data
0.41 pp
calm
Credit
HY OAS (BAMLH0A0HYM2) Data
2.65 %
watch
Volatility
VIX Data
14.53
yday 14.53
▲ +1.47%
VIX spot Data
14.53 index
calm
Dollar & FX
EUR/USD Data
1.16
▼ -0.06%
Other
WTI crude Data
91.48 USD/bbl
watch
Cover checks
VIX Data
14.53 / 25.00
yday 14.53
Not Triggered
Stock-bond 20d correlation (SPY vs TLT) Data
0.38 / 0.70
yday 0.38 / 0.70
Not Triggered
Avg pairwise sector correlation (11 SPDRs, 20d) Data
0.20 / 0.55
yday 0.20 / 0.55
Not Triggered
Credit stress proxy (HY OAS jump flag) Data
0.00 / 1.00
yday 0.00 / 1.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AIOil/Hormuz premium + hot labor/hike path = inflationary boom, not deflationary bust — long bonds and crash hedges stay at 0; gold+commodities+cash carry the disorder hedge.
• Do not chase fresh semi longs while SMH EXIT remains active
• Use Sep 11 CPI as the binary: soft → hold risk-on; hot → trim duration-sensitive growth
AIFriday’s hot NFP sold equities modestly but VIX ~14.53 and sector correlations stay calm — still risk-on surface into CPI/FOMC (0/4 triggers). Inflationary_boom (oil premium + hike path) remains the correct Gave quadrant.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 2 minFriday’s August payrolls printed hot (+162k vs ~53–65k; unemployment 4.1%), and traders re-lifted September hike odds toward ~60% with the 2Y near ~4.37%. Equities gave back Thursday’s Wall…
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Friday’s August payrolls printed hot (+162k vs ~53–65k; unemployment 4.1%), and traders re-lifted September hike odds toward ~60% with the 2Y near ~4.37%. Equities gave back Thursday’s Waller relief — S&P 7718.60 (−0.4%), Dow 53414.25 (−0.5%), Nasdaq 26506.99 (−0.3%) — while Russell 2000 managed +0.2% to 2975.65 and VIX firmed to ~14.53. Oil held ~$91 WTI on US–Iran/Hormuz risk; gold slipped on the hike reprice.
How Yesterday Unfolded
Asia Asia into Friday digested the post-Waller USDJPY mid-156s squeeze and stayed reactive ahead of the US labor print rather than leading the tape.
Europe Europe finished mixed/flat into the US open as positioning clustered around NFP; energy stayed firmer on Hormuz while rate-sensitive names softened once the hot print hit.
Duration-sensitive growth / Thursday software relief → Rate-hike defense + selective energy/industrial beta · XLK still closed green on the week but Fri session sold duration; XLE weekly +2.2% while XLY −1.9% weekly per RIA week-in-review.
Hot NFP reopened a “good news is bad news” Fed path, favoring cash-flow/defense and oil-linked beta over long-duration discretionary.
Monetary gold bid → USD/hike reprice + oil geopolitical premium · GC=F slipped ~0.3% Fri to ~4477 while CL=F held ~91.48; GLD −0.8% Fri.
Hike odds rising cut the rate-sensitive precious bid even as Hormuz kept the oil risk premium alive.
Key Drivers
Hot August NFP (+162k) re-prices September hike odds — Payrolls beat ~53–65k consensus with U-rate 4.1%; futures lifted Sep hike odds toward ~60% and sold duration equities.
Bridge to Today
Monday is US Labor Day (cash closed) — watch Asia/Europe for CPI/FOMC positioning cues, then treat Tuesday’s reopen and the Sep 11 CPI print as the next hard gate for Friday’s hike reprice.
GeneralConcept of the Day 1 minWhat the Fed funds rate actually is
CONCEPT OF THE DAY
What the Fed funds rate actually is
Why today : Friday’s +162k NFP only mattered because it yanked Fed funds hike odds back toward ~60% into Sep 15–16.
The federal funds rate is the overnight interest rate banks charge each other for reserve balances — the Federal Reserve’s primary policy lever. When markets talk about a “September hike,” they mean the FOMC raising the target range for that overnight rate, which then ripples into SOFR, Treasury bills, floating-rate debt, and ultimately discount rates on equities. Futures and Fed funds odds compress that expectation into a single probability: after Friday’s hot payrolls, traders lifted the chance of a September increase toward ~60%. That is why a strong jobs print can sell stocks — the policy rate path, not the jobs number itself, is what reprices duration. When you see “hike odds” in this newsletter, translate it as the market’s probability that the Fed funds target range moves up at the next meeting.
Over the next 1–2 weeks buy DUOL ~$154.46 after Evercore ISI’s Outperform and $210 PT (Mark Mahaney) — the AI-disruption bear case is being retired while DAUs/retention stay strong. Conviction 7.5 on named bulge PT +…
Language-app compounder with high retentioEvercore sponsorship is the fresh sell-sidDated Evercore Outperform/$210 PT is the qAI-resilience / Netflix-comeback narrativeDUOL ~$154.46 (−2.8% Fri); buy dips while
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
7/10
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
8/10
Technicals
6/10
Evercore ISI Outperform / $210 PT (Sep 4–5) — Mahaney AI-resilience callAnti-repetition vs Sat RTX+APH — consumer-growth software not defense/connectorsHot-NFP duration tape: quality growth only with fresh bulge sponsorship
Target
$210.00
Invalidation: Weekly close below $140 with Evercore/Street PT cuts or a clear DAU roll-over print.
TradingView's price for DUOL. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 1–2 weeks buy FIVE ~$252.20 after JPMorgan’s Overweight $368 PT and Goldman’s Buy $306 PT into the post-earnings revision wave — value-retail operating leverage with named bulge targets. Conviction 7.5;…
Value retailer with post-print margin/compDual bulge PT raises (JPM+GS) are the sponDated JPM $368 / GS $306 PT hikes qualify Post-earnings revision narrative in discreFIVE ~$252.20 (+5.1% Fri); momentum confir
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
8/10
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
7/10
JPMorgan Overweight PT raised to $368 (Sep 3–4 window)Goldman Sachs Buy PT raised to $306 (Sep 4)Anti-repetition vs Sat defense/connectors — consumer discretionary retail
Target
$306.00
Invalidation: Weekly close below $230 with JPM/GS PT cuts or a comp-sales miss guide-down.
TradingView's price for FIVE. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 2 minTKA.DE BUY · MT.AS BUY
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
TKA.DENEW
thyssenkrupp AG
7.5
+6.51%
MT.ASNEW
ArcelorMittal
7
+2.41%
TKA.DEVALUEBUYNEW
thyssenkrupp AG • Materials
7.5/10Conviction
$15.21
▲ +6.51%
Over the next 1–2 weeks buy TKA.DE ~€15.21 after Deutsche Bank Research lifted its PT to €18 and kept Buy (Bastian Synagowitz) on EU steel trade-protection — structural pricing power even with soft demand. Conviction…
eu_fundamentals_gap — thesis leans on DB sDB sponsorship + follow-through buying (+6Dated DB PT hike to €18 is the qualifying EU steel protection / pricing-power narratTKA.DE ~€15.21 near 52w high — momentum co
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
7/10
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
7/10
Deutsche Bank Buy / PT €18 (from €16) dated Sep 4EU trade-protection tailwind for steel pricingAnti-repetition vs Sat VOD.L+IVG.MI — German steel not UK telco/Italian trucks
Target
$18.00
Invalidation: Weekly close below €13.50 with DB PT cut or EU trade-protection reversal headlines.
TradingView's price for TKA.DE. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 1–2 weeks buy MT.AS ~€67.24 as the liquid European steel companion — Deutsche Bank also raised MT to Buy / €71 PT in the same Sep 4 sector note. Conviction 7.0; pairs with TKA without repeating Sat’s…
eu_fundamentals_gap — use DB sector PT as Sector note sponsorship alongside TKA is tDated DB Buy/€71 PT is the catalyst.European steel re-rating narrative on tradMT.AS ~€67.24 (+2.4% Fri); constructive vs
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
7/10
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
7/10
Deutsche Bank Buy / PT €71 on ArcelorMittal (Sep 4 sector note)Same EU trade-protection steel re-rating as TKAEUR Amsterdam listing — EURO-book cash compatible
Target
$71.00
Invalidation: Weekly close below €60 with DB PT cut or steel spread collapse.
TradingView's price for MT.AS. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 2 minBFRI HOLD · OTLK HOLD
PENNY PLAYS
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BFRI=
Biofrontera Inc.
5
+6.62%
OTLK=
Outlook Therapeutics
4.5
+2.77%
BFRIPENNYHOLD🔥 9-issue streak=
Biofrontera Inc. • Healthcare
5/10Conviction
$1.61
▲ +6.62%
Into the Sep 28 Ameluz sBCC PDUFA, BFRI remains a dated-binary watch — scores 5.0/10 (narrative+catalyst real; balance-sheet/dilution and institutional signal keep it out of buy tier). Proxy on dermatology PDT label…
Micro-cap PDT franchise — revenue path reaBinary PDUFA interest without broad institHard-dated Sep 28 PDUFA is the only near-tDermatology label-expansion narrative is cBFRI ~$1.61; watchlist only — no size into
Fundamentals
4/10
Sentiment / flow
5/10
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
FDA PDUFA for Ameluz superficial BCC dated September 28, 2026Prior revenue-growth / path-to-breakeven narrative still the setup, not a new financing
Target
$2.50
Invalidation: CRL or PDUFA delay past Sep 28 without a clear new action date.
BFRI between stop and target1.61
0.82.5
Stop on the left, target on the right. Red and green mark those ends only. The tick is the last price.
TradingView's price for BFRI. It is not the last print in this letter.
OTLK stays watchlist at 4.5/10 — ocular bevacizumab path still exists but post-PDUFA timeline slippage and dilution risk keep it below the buy bar. Scores show catalyst proximity without balance-sheet support.
Balance sheet remains the gate — dilution Sparse institutional signal; social intereRegulatory path is still the catalyst, butOcular bevacizumab narrative intact but coOTLK ~$0.67; watchlist only.
Fundamentals
3/10
Sentiment / flow
4/10
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
4/10
Ongoing ONS-5010 regulatory path watch after 2026 PDUFA windowAnti-repetition continuity — still the cleanest dated microcap binary on the watchlist
Target
$1.20
Invalidation: Another financing at a distressed price without a clear FDA action date.
OTLK between stop and target0.667
0.21.2
Stop on the left, target on the right. Red and green mark those ends only. The tick is the last price.
TradingView's price for OTLK. It is not the last print in this letter.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 6 minSMH remains EXIT below its 50-day despite Friday’s +2.6% bounce; XLK/XLF/XLE/XLV/XBI still pass BUY rules on paper but the Trend book is at max-5 with SMH EXIT still PENDING-reserved — capa…
TREND FOLLOW
SMH remains EXIT below its 50-day despite Friday’s +2.6% bounce; XLK/XLF/XLE/XLV/XBI still pass BUY rules on paper but the Trend book is at max-5 with SMH EXIT still PENDING-reserved — capacity gate holds.
8 of 18 scanned ETFs close above their 50-day — mixed tape with semis still broken.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
3
+2.61%
XBI
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
6
-0.35%
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR
7
-0.87%
XLV
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
6
-1.04%
XLB
Materials Select Sector SPDR
5
-0.34%
XLK
Technology Select Sector SPDR
6
+0.70%
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust
3
+0.18%
XLF
Financial Select Sector SPDR
6
-0.79%
SMHTECHNOLOGYEXIT🔥 20-issue streak
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
3/10Conviction
$567.01
▲ +2.61%
Stay EXIT/flat semis while SMH remains below its 50-day (~573.97) — hard rule, no averaging down under the 50-day even after Friday’s bounce.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo positive rule catalyst while below SMA5AI hardware digestion narrative dominates.Below SMA50 (573.97) — EXIT.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
3/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
2/10
SMH vs 50-day −1.21%Fri bounce does not reclaim SMA50
Invalidation: Stay flat while below 50-day (~$573.97).
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLE remains a rules BUY on tape (above 50/200, strong RS) but already held — HOLD/no-add at capacity.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sOil supply premium still in the tape.Energy leadership.Price > 50 > 200, strong RS vs SPY.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
8/10
Hormuz oil premiumAbove SMA50/200 + RS leadership
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLB holds above SMA50 but RS vs SPY is soft — HOLD, not a fresh add.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sEU steel protection is the narrative spillMaterials sleeve.Above SMA50; RS mixed.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
6/10
Steel trade-protection spilloverAbove SMA50
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XLB. It is not the last print in this letter.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minSpot BTC ETFs still absorbed ~$175M on Sep 4 after a ~$731M Sep 3 spike (~$987M week), while ETH ETF inflows cooled to ~$26M — weekend spot digests Friday’s hike reprice with BTC ~$79.8k an…
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Spot BTC ETFs still absorbed ~$175M on Sep 4 after a ~$731M Sep 3 spike (~$987M week), while ETH ETF inflows cooled to ~$26M — weekend spot digests Friday’s hike reprice with BTC ~$79.8k and ETH ~$2.50k.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
7.5
+0.13%
ETH-USD
Ethereum
6.5
+1.96%
BTC-USDBUY🔥 3-issue streak
Bitcoin
7.5/10Conviction
$79771.00
▲ +0.13%
Over the next 1–2 weeks stay BUY BTC on persistent spot ETF inflows (~$731M Sep 3 / ~$175M Sep 4) even after Friday’s hike reprice — flows > one-day spot noise. Conviction 7.5; already held → no-add. Invalidation:…
Scarce digital commodity with ETF demand aMulti-day spot ETF inflows dominate sentimDated Sep 3–4 ETF inflow prints are the caDigital gold / ETF institutionalization naBTC ~$79.8k weekend mark — buy dips, no ch
Over the next 1–2 weeks keep ETH BUY but secondary to BTC — Sep 4 ETH ETF inflows slowed to ~$26M after Sep 3’s ~$141M. Conviction 6.5; already held → no-add. Invalidation: weekly close below $2,200 with ETH ETF outflow…
L1 settlement + ETF wrapper improve institETH ETF flows positive but cooling vs BTC Dated Sep 3–4 ETH ETF prints are the catalETH as ETF-institutionalizing L1 narrativeETH ~$2,504 weekend; HOLD size, no add.
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
6/10
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
6/10
ETH ETF ~$141M Sep 3 / ~$26M Sep 4Weekend spot rebound ~+$2.50kBTC flow leadership still the pair’s driver
Invalidation: Weekly close below $2,200 with ETH ETF outflows >$100M in a session.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 3 minRotate the commodity sleeve toward UGA (gasoline/diesel torque on Hormuz + record US diesel) and CANE (agri diversification) while keeping USO as a held oil core — not another PPLT/URA reru…
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Rotate the commodity sleeve toward UGA (gasoline/diesel torque on Hormuz + record US diesel) and CANE (agri diversification) while keeping USO as a held oil core — not another PPLT/URA rerun.
Oil/product strength alongside a still-elevated WTI ~$91 and soft gold on hike odds is an inflationary-geopolitical mix, not a clean growth scare — if Hormuz…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
UGA
Gasoline (US Gasoline Fund)
7
+1.53%
CANE
Sugar (Teucrium Sugar)
6.5
+0.26%
USO
WTI Crude Oil (USO)
6
-0.09%
Gasoline (US Gasoline Fund)ENERGYBUY
UGA
7/10Conviction
$133.22
▲ +1.53%
Over the next 1–2 weeks prefer UGA as the refined-product expression of the Hormuz premium — US diesel already tagged record ~$5.85/gal and gasoline ETF strength can persist if shipping risk keeps cracks elevated into…
Product ETF tracks gasoline; diesel recordCFTC/spec oil longs rose while natgas shorDated Hormuz escalation + AAA diesel recorRefining-margin / shipping-risk narrative UGA ~$133.22 (+1.5% Fri); hold above $120
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
7/10
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
7/10
US diesel record ~$5.85/gal on Hormuz/refining stressWTI still ~$91 with product outperformance vs crude parentAnti-repetition vs Sat PPLT+URA — products not PGMs/uranium
Invalidation: Weekly close back below $120 with a clear Hormuz de-escalation that collapses cracks.
TradingView's price for UGA. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 1–2 weeks add CANE as the ag diversifier — CFTC showed funds adding sugar/corn longs while gold longs were cut, and sugar is not the crowded oil/PGM tape. Conviction 6.5; already held → no-add.
Sugar ETF proxies physical softs balance; COT showed funds adding sugar longs while Latest COT print is the dated flow catalysAgri diversifier narrative vs oil/PGM concCANE ~$11.42; starter-size only above $10.
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
7/10
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
CFTC: speculative sugar/corn longs increased in latest COTAnti-repetition vs metals/energy concentration — agri sleeveSofts bid while monetary gold softens on hike odds
Invalidation: Weekly close below $10.50 with a broad softs flush on USD spike.
TradingView's price for CANE. It is not the last print in this letter.
Keep USO as the held crude core into CPI week — WTI ~$91 still embeds Hormuz risk, but Friday’s hike reprice caps chase risk. HOLD / no-add at conviction 6.0.
USO tracks WTI; geopolitical supply premiuSpec crude longs rose in COT — crowded butHormuz headlines remain the live catalyst;Core oil narrative intact; product ETF is USO ~$141.96 flat Fri — HOLD, do not chase
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
6/10
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
6/10
WTI ~$91 still pricing Hormuz riskAlready-held core oil beta — trim-chase discipline into CPIOPEC+ supply watch weekend
Invalidation: Weekly close below $80 on confirmed Hormuz normalization.
TradingView's price for USO. It is not the last print in this letter.
BoJ policy meeting (Sep 17–18) — post-yen squeeze
· forex_rebalancing
2026-09-28
BFRI Ameluz sBCC PDUFA
· penny_plays
Stocks
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 5 min30d hit rate 100%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech-US
+1.58%
Named holdings. 43 smaller positions (13.87%) are off this picture.
Tech-US
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$101581.71
Cash
$13539.76
P&L
$1581.71 (+1.58%)
Realized P&L
$-3181.65
TWR
+1.79%
Sharpe
0.44
Max DD
-2.39%
Sortino
1.15
Calmar
5.90
Ann. return
+14.10%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions87%
Cash13%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
DUOL
1.83
dispatched
Buy
FIVE
1.12
dispatched
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$8977.99
+5.3%
XOM ×129
$20543.23
+4.3%
UNH ×8.49
$3372.75
-6.8%
INTC ×14.08
$1348.93
-78.2%
MSFT ×11.91
$5952.68
+22.8%
SBUX ×11.63
$1214.59
-2.0%
CBRE ×8.29
$1225.88
-1.1%
AMZN ×5.95
$1538.83
-4.3%
+38 more holdings
Track Record
4 On Track
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
RTX (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
APH (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
SNOW (2026-09-04)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
HOOD (2026-09-04)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
Euro-only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$121086.29
Cash
$22056.00
P&L
$21086.29 (+21.09%)
Realized P&L
$-42835.98
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
TKA.DE
30.21
dispatched
Buy
MT.AS
6.83
dispatched
Current Holdings
⚠ Weekend/holiday marks — several books still priced at cost or last aggregator estimate.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702
$0.0000
—
TTE.PA ×364
$0.0000
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$0.0000
—
RR.L ×101
$0.0000
—
VIE.PA ×48.5
$0.0000
—
GLE.PA ×17.29
$0.0000
—
MNDI.L ×158
$0.0000
—
NWG.L ×191
$0.0000
—
+30 more holdings
Track Record
3 On Track
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
IVG.MI (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
PUB.PA (2026-09-04)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
DTE.DE (2026-09-04)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
Penny-Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Weekend/holiday marks — several books still priced at cost or last aggregator estimate.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578
$0.0000
—
PYPD ×1564
$0.0000
—
STXS ×2738
$0.0000
—
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$35000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Weekend/holiday marks — several books still priced at cost or last aggregator estimate.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65
$0.0000
—
IEF ×108
$0.0000
—
DBC ×654
$0.0000
—
SPLV ×132
$0.0000
—
Trend-follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$75717.93
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Sell
SMH
5.03
pending
Current Holdings
⚠ Weekend/holiday marks — several books still priced at cost or last aggregator estimate.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86
$0.0000
—
SMH ×5.03
$0.0000
—
XLV ×30.27
$0.0000
—
XBI ×32
$0.0000
—
XLB ×93.53
$0.0000
—
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$30160.74
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Weekend/holiday marks — several books still priced at cost or last aggregator estimate.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×202
$0.0000
—
GLD ×30.1
$0.0000
—
CPER ×136
$0.0000
—
SLV ×84.48
$0.0000
—
PPLT ×66.63
$0.0000
—
BNO ×35.14
$0.0000
—
URA ×23.16
$0.0000
—
UGA ×26.78
$0.0000
—
+9 more holdings
Track Record
3 On Track
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
PPLT (2026-09-05)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
URA (2026-09-05)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
USO (2026-09-02)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$33371.62
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Weekend/holiday marks — several books still priced at cost or last aggregator estimate.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5382
$0.0000
—
ETH-USD ×14.91
$0.0000
—
SOL-USD ×26.81
$0.0000
—
XRP-USD ×628
$0.0000
—
Track Record
2 On Track
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BTC-USD (2026-09-04)
7.5/10
+0.1%
On Track
ETH-USD (2026-09-05)
6.5/10
+1.9%
On Track
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +100.00%
Glossary
Fed funds rate
The federal funds rate is the overnight interest rate banks charge each other for reserve balances — the Federal Reserve’s primary policy lever.
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Penny-stock risk: very low-priced, thinly traded securities can be illiquid, volatile and easy to manipulate. Spreads can be wide, exits may be impossible at the quoted price, and you can lose your entire investment. Ideas in this category are diligence starting points, not a buy list.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.