market_pulse — SPX analytics still stamps 7718.60 / −1.17% from ATH (Fri composition) vs live Tue close 7673.52 (−1.75% from ATH 7810). FRED tiles are single-observation (no delta_bp). DTWEXBGS is weekly 2026-08-28. VIX9D/VIX3M/MOVE spots have no tradeDate.
yesterday_retrospective — GET /movers returned 400 — movers[] omitted. Nikkei hist +0.38% vs Fri 65021; Reuters Tue session −1.70% vs Monday is the session move used in the Asia writeup.
us_equity_ideas — QCOM/GLW not in the US screener top; Tue cash prints missing on /history (last Fri 168.74 / 154.30). Published web 174.09 / 165.96. Sentiment/13F empty — scorecard flow factors null. PE/PEG/beta/52w from screener are stale-close derived.
eu_equity_ideas — eu_fundamentals_gap — KGX.DE aggregator fundamentals empty. Price cross-check: agg Fri 45.30 vs Tradevae/Citi-day web ~€48.36; published web 48.36. KGX.DE price rejected by Portfolio Manager's plausibility guard — see trade history
penny_plays — Screener empty for category=penny — fell back to continuity watchlist (BFRI PDUFA Sep 28; OTLK HCPCS filing-by Oct 1). Hist last Fri; no Tue penny prints.
forex_rebalancing — FX /price spots returned Stooq JS (close null); hist stale through 2026-08-29. EURUSD 1.1644 from Yahoo live. USDJPY 153.18 from the Wed Reuters/oil tape, not a fresh aggregator pair print.
commodities_outlook — USO/WEAT/CPER /price spots returned Stooq JS; used history rows (USO 146.03 / WEAT 26.96 / CPER 40.57 on Sep 8). Book already loaded — no new BUY. COT/positioning empty.
crypto_landscape — BTC-USD price rejected by Portfolio Manager's plausibility guard — see trade history. ETH-USD price rejected by Portfolio Manager's plausibility guard — see trade history. Spot ETF flow print still the week-ended-Sep-4 / three-week streak, not a Tuesday tape.
trend_follow — No universe name has 200 closes — sma200 null, 200-day test fails, zero BUY. SMH EXIT on Sep 8 close 573.73 vs sma50 580.29. QQQ hist too short for SMA50.
risk_cover_playbook — HY OAS from FRED is 2.65 (265 bp, 2026-09-03). Put/call omitted (no feed). SPY–TLT 20d corr uses hist through Sep 1 (+0.44).
portfolio_reality_check — Euro/Penny/AF/Trend/Commodities/Crypto books all_prices_estimated. INTC −76% is a cost-basis outlier (avg 439 vs px 104.47) — ignored for stop-loss. PLTR/CSCO/RDDT/ESTC are −8% holdings but were not published picks in the last 30 days — not stop-loss closed this run.
squawk — Overnight squawk endpoints returned 401 — overnight_tape omitted.
September FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥3.75–4.00%)
Probability: High • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $101551.84
Blended P&L: +1.55% • 30d Hit Rate: +88.00%
1 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 22 of 25 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 1.5%, average loss -3.8%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 3 minDGS10 4.77 vs DFF 3.63, VIX 15.72, HY OAS 2.65: equities only −1.75% from ATH while Brent 99.49 is the inflation tension. Weekly USD broad 118.75 (Aug 28) is a different clock than the dail…
MARKET PULSE
SPX 7673.52 −0.58% (Tue) sits −1.75% from the Aug 14 ATH; VIX 15.72 and Brent 99.49 are the live tells into ECB Thu and CPI Fri.
Mixed tape Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
AIDGS10 4.77 vs DFF 3.63, VIX 15.72, HY OAS 2.65: equities only −1.75% from ATH while Brent 99.49 is the inflation tension. Weekly USD broad 118.75 (Aug 28) is a different clock than the daily VIX.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,673.52
yday 7,718.60
▼ -0.58%
NASDAQ Data
26,421.41
yday 26,506.99
▼ -0.32%
Dow Jones Data
52,786.07
yday 53,414.25
▼ -1.18%
Russell 2K Data
2,960.20
yday 2,975.65
▼ -0.52%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
4,443.70
yday 4,438.30
▲ +0.12%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data
94.32
yday 94.08
▲ +0.26%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
79,157.00
yday 78,320.00
▲ +1.07%
Ethereum Data
2,499.85
yday 2,480.30
▲ +0.79%
Rates
10Y Yield Data
4.81
yday 4.78
▲ +0.46%
10Y-2Y Data
0.41
yday 0.41
—
UST 10y Data
4.77
yday 4.77
—
UST 30y Data
5.25
yday 5.25
—
Eff. fed funds Data
3.63
yday 3.63
—
Credit
HY OAS Data
2.65
yday 2.65
—
IG OAS Data
0.81
—
HY−IG OAS differential Data
1.84 pp
yday 1.84 pp
calm
Volatility
VIX Data
15.72
yday 14.53
▲ +8.19%
VIX9D Data
11.97
—
VIX3M Data
17.61
—
MOVE Data
73.10
—
VIX/VIX3M term-structure Data
0.89
yday 0.83
calm
VIX9D/VIX front slope Data
0.76
yday 0.82
calm
MOVE index Data
73.10
yday 73.10
calm
Dollar & FX
DXY (spot) Data
98.69
yday 98.96
—
EUR/USD Data
1.16
yday 1.16
▲ +0.24%
USD broad (weekly) Data
118.75
yday 118.75
—
wk
DXY (spot) Data
98.69
calm
Breadth
SPY−RSP 5d Data
+1.94pp
yday +1.94pp
—
SPY−RSP 21d Data
+0.78pp
—
% from 52w Data
-1.17%
yday -1.17%
—
% SPX above 200-day Data
69.47 %
yday 69.47 %
calm
Liquidity
SOFR Data
3.66
—
Initial claims Data
206,000.00
—
wk
SOFR−DFF Data
0.03 pp
yday 0.03 pp
calm
Initial claims (ICSA) Data
206,000.00 claims
yday 206,000.00 claims
calm
Cross-asset
Stock-bond 20d correlation Data
0.45 corr
yday 0.44 corr
watch
Gold/Copper (GC/HG) Data
654.80
calm
Other
UST 3y Data
4.41
yday 4.41
—
ECB dep. facility Data
2.25
—
Brent Data
99.49
—
Cover checks
VIX Data
15.72 / 25.00
yday 14.53
Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread Data
0.41 / -0.20
yday 0.41
Not Triggered
HY OAS (bp) Data
265.00 / 450.00
yday 265.00 / 450.00
Not Triggered
SPX drawdown from ATH (%) Data
1.75 / 8.00
yday 1.17 / 8.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AIWTI 94.32 + LME copper ATH while HY OAS 2.65 and SPX −1.75% from ATH say growth is intact. That is inflationary boom, not stagflation: keep DBC/GLD, keep TLT at 0, do not buy SH on a 0/4-trigger tape.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 1 minTuesday was the first US cash session after Labor Day: SPX 7673.52 −0.58% and the Dow −1.18% as Brent pushed toward $100 on fresh Middle East energy strikes, and VIX jumped to 15.72.
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Tuesday was the first US cash session after Labor Day: SPX 7673.52 −0.58% and the Dow −1.18% as Brent pushed toward $100 on fresh Middle East energy strikes, and VIX jumped to 15.72.
Bridge to Today
Into ECB Thursday and US CPI Friday, watch whether Brent holds the $100 handle or the AI-infra bid keeps absorbing the oil shock.
GeneralConcept of the Day 1 minWhat the MOVE index actually measures
CONCEPT OF THE DAY
What the MOVE index actually measures
Why today : Pulse tiles MOVE at 73.10 next to VIX 15.72 — the unused catalog term the cockpit actually named.
The MOVE index is the bond market’s VIX: a yield-weighted average of implied volatility on 2-, 5-, 10- and 30-year Treasury options, expressed in basis points of yield. It is not a forecast of the next Fed hike; it is the price of insurance against a sudden swing in the rates curve. A contained MOVE next to a rising VIX means equity vol is waking up while fixed-income vol is not — typical of an oil-led inflation scare that has not yet become a rates event. When this newsletter tiles MOVE beside VIX, ask only whether bond options are confirming the equity-vol move or staying asleep into CPI and FOMC.
AWS custom-silicon warrants (up to $60B spend) is the 24h-fresh AI-infra print: QCOM 174.09 is a new US name vs yesterday’s FRO/CRM.
AWS $60B warrantsFY25 ROE 26%Web 174.09 vs Fri 168.74
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
6/10
52-week range
Amazon AWS custom AI chips; warrants vest with up to $60B spendCFO: manufacturing revenue starts December quarter toward $15B FY29 data-center targetAnti-rep vs yesterday’s FRO/CRM
Target
$200.00
Invalidation: Weekly close back below 160 or AWS spend guidance cut.
TradingView's price for QCOM. It is not the last print in this letter.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 4 minZero new BUY: no universe name has 200 closes so the 200-day test fails. SMH 573.73 still ≤ sma50 580.29 — EXIT the lot. XLE/XLV/XBI/XLB stay HOLD.
TREND FOLLOW
Zero new BUY: no universe name has 200 closes so the 200-day test fails. SMH 573.73 still ≤ sma50 580.29 — EXIT the lot. XLE/XLV/XBI/XLB stay HOLD.
7 of 18 names sit above their 50-day on mixed as-of dates; none clear sma200, so the tape is not a fresh-add tape.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
4.5
+5.23%
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR
6.5
+1.11%
XBI
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
6.5
-0.90%
XLV
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
6
-2.52%
XLB
Materials Select Sector SPDR
5.5
-0.95%
SMHINFORMATION TECHNOLOGYEXIT🔥 24-issue streak
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
4.5/10Conviction
$573.73
▲ +5.23%
Hard exit: Sep 8 close 573.73 is still through the 50-day at 580.29 — sell the full 5.0341 lot.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s50-day break is the only catalyst that matRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s573.73 vs sma50 580.29 — EXIT, not a bounc
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
4/10
Close 573.73 ≤ sma50 580.29Rules-based EXIT, not a fundamental call
Invalidation: Daily close back above the 50-day (~580.29).
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
Already held and still above the 50-day — HOLD, not a fresh add (sma200 missing).
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sOil fourth session keeps the energy sleeveRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s64.77 vs sma50 58.37; already held — HOLD.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
7/10
USO/Brent oil fourth sessionClose 64.77 vs sma50 58.37
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~58.37).
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
Already held and still above the 50-day — HOLD; RS vs SPY is the best in the book.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sBest 20d RS vs SPY among held names.Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s161.93 vs sma50 156.83; already held — HOL
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
7/10
Still the strongest 20d RS vs SPY in the held set
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~156.83).
TradingView's price for XBI. It is not the last print in this letter.
XBI · 20d illustrative range
XLVHEALTH CAREHOLD🔥 23-issue streak
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
6/10Conviction
$167.13
▼ -2.52%
Already held and still above the 50-day after Tuesday’s −2.5% — HOLD, watch 163.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sHealthcare fade Tue; 50-day still intact.Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s167.13 vs sma50 163.12 after a −2.5% sessi
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
7/10
Tue XLV 167.13 still > sma50 163.12 after Novartis-led fade
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~163.12).
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
Already held and barely above the 50-day — HOLD, first to lose if materials fade.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sCopper ATH is the materials tell; sleeve aRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s51.94 vs sma50 51.71 — thin cushion, HOLD.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
6/10
Copper ATH supports materials; XLB 51.94 vs sma50 51.71
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~51.71).
TradingView's price for XLB. It is not the last print in this letter.
HOLD GBP vs EUR — No fresh UK catalyst — leave GBP unchanged vs EUR.
Conviction 40%
HOLD CHF vs EUR — CHF stays residual ballast, not an active add into Thursday’s ECB.
Conviction 40%
Crypto
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minBTC 79157 (+1.07% vs Tue 78320) and ETH 2499.85 stay BUY: the three-week spot-ETF inflow streak is intact, but PM rejected both adds so the existing lots stand.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
BTC 79157 (+1.07% vs Tue 78320) and ETH 2499.85 stay BUY: the three-week spot-ETF inflow streak is intact, but PM rejected both adds so the existing lots stand.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
7
+1.07%
ETH-USD
Ethereum
5.8
+0.79%
BTC-USDBUY🔥 7-issue streak
Bitcoin
7/10Conviction
$79157.00
▲ +1.07%
Keep BTC as the core crypto sleeve: the three-week ETF inflow streak still supports BUY; the lot is already on the book.
On-chain/hash metrics not pulled — fundameThree-week spot BTC ETF inflow streak stilETF bid is the institutional catalyst intoDigital gold vs oil-shock inflation — keepBTC 79157 +1.07% vs Tue 78320; above Aug l
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
8/10
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
6/10
Spot BTC ETF three-week inflow streak (Basis)FOMC Sep 16 as the next vol event
Invalidation: Weekly close back below 72000 with a week of net ETF outflows.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Keep ETH as the liquid second sleeve: ETF residual supports BUY but slower than BTC — no SOL/XRP chase.
No ETH staking/TVL pull this run — fundameETH ETF residual; cooling versus BTC’s strSecond-beta to BTC ETF tape; no new protocKeep ETH as the liquid alt sleeve, not a fETH 2499.85 +0.79% vs Tue 2480; still rang
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
6/10
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
ETH ETF residual vs BTC’s three-week streak
Invalidation: Weekly close back below 2200 with ETF outflows for two weeks.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 3 minHold USO at 146.03 and CPER at 40.57 — Brent 99.49 and LME copper’s $14,697/t ATH keep the inflationary-boom sleeve; REDUCE WEAT 26.96. No new BUY.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Hold USO at 146.03 and CPER at 40.57 — Brent 99.49 and LME copper’s $14,697/t ATH keep the inflationary-boom sleeve; REDUCE WEAT 26.96. No new BUY.
Oil + copper up together with DGS10 4.77 and weekly USD 118.75 is inflationary boom, not a grains smash: if Hormuz keeps Brent near $100 into CPI Friday, crude…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
USO
United States Oil Fund
6.3
+2.87%
CPER
United States Copper Index Fund
7
+1.55%
WEAT
Teucrium Wheat Fund
5
-3.23%
United States Oil FundENERGYHOLD🔥 9-issue streak
USO
6.3/10Conviction
$146.03
▲ +2.87%
Keep the existing USO lot through CPI: WTI 94.32 / Brent 99.49 price a fourth oil up-session — do not add; the book already owns USO/BNO/UGA.
Fourth oil up-session; Hormuz supply stillNo COT/positioning print — factor left nulBrent 99.49 / WTI 94.32 into CPI Friday.Oil-as-inflation-impulse still the tape inUSO 146.03 Sep 8 +2.87%; already maxed in
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
USO 146.03 Sep 8 vs 141.96 FriBrent BZ=F 99.49; Reuters fourth session toward $100WTI CL=F 94.32
Invalidation: WTI sustains a close back below $88 with Hormuz transit normalizing.
TradingView's price for USO. It is not the last print in this letter.
United States Copper Index FundINDUSTRIAL METALHOLD
CPER
7/10Conviction
$40.57
▲ +1.55%
Hold the existing CPER lot: LME copper’s $14,697/t ATH is a live tariff/supply catalyst — do not add another copper proxy on top of CPER/COPX.
Chile output −9.4% y/y plus tariff-fear sqNo copper COT print this run — gap left nuLME ATH $14,697/t Sep 8 is a 24h-fresh priAI-grid + tariff squeeze is the industrialCPER 40.57 +1.55%; book already holds CPER
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
6/10
LME copper ATH $14,697/t Sep 8 (FXStreet)CPER 40.57 Sep 8 vs 39.95 FriHG=F 6.79
Invalidation: LME copper loses $13,500/t on a weekly close with tariff talk fading.
TradingView's price for CPER. It is not the last print in this letter.
Fade wheat into Black Sea peace headlines: WEAT 26.96 Sep 8 broke 27.86 — REDUCE the existing stub, do not add another ag lot.
Peace hopes loosen the grains balance vs oNo grains positioning feed — gap left nullFastmarkets Sep 7 peace/profit-taking stilAg is the idiosyncratic fade while metals WEAT 26.96 −3.2% vs last 27.86 print.
Fundamentals
4/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
5/10
WEAT 26.96 Sep 8 vs 27.86 Sep 2Fastmarkets Sep 7: wheat down on Black Sea peace hopes
Invalidation: WEAT closes back above 29.50 or a confirmed Black Sea export shutdown.
TradingView's price for WEAT. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 5 min30d hit rate 88%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech US
+1.55%
Named holdings. 117 smaller positions (29.69%) are off this picture.
Tech US
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$101551.84
Cash
$12483.46
P&L
$1551.84 (+1.55%)
Realized P&L
$-3181.65
TWR
+1.79%
Sharpe
0.41
Max DD
-2.39%
Sortino
1.06
Calmar
5.53
Ann. return
+13.24%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions88%
Cash12%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
QCOM
1.43
pending
Buy
GLW
1.51
pending
Hold
FRO
38.46
—
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$9189.19
+7.8%
XOM ×129
$20696.53
+5.1%
UNH ×8.49
$3404.17
-5.9%
INTC ×14.08
$1471.01
-76.2%
MSFT ×11.91
$5884.18
+21.4%
SBUX ×11.63
$1185.99
-4.3%
CBRE ×8.29
$1179.53
-4.9%
AMZN ×5.95
$1529.67
-4.9%
+41 more holdings
Track Record
7 On Track · 3 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
RTX (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
APH (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
SNOW (2026-09-04)
7.5/10
-5.4%
Lagging
HOOD (2026-09-04)
7/10
-2.1%
Lagging
PSX (2026-09-07)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
ADBE (2026-09-07)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
CVX (2026-09-08)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
JPM (2026-09-08)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
FRO (2026-09-08)
7/10
+1.1%
On Track
CRM (2026-09-08)
7/10
-3.9%
Lagging
Euro-only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$121086.29
Cash
$20335.28
P&L
$21086.29 (+21.09%)
Realized P&L
$-42835.98
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
KGX.DE
8.41
—
Current Holdings
⚠ Live EU quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702
$23967.39
—
TTE.PA ×364
$26944.15
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
—
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
—
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
—
GLE.PA ×17.29
$1402.26
—
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
—
NWG.L ×191
$1346.17
—
+34 more holdings
Track Record
8 On Track
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
IVG.MI (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
PUB.PA (2026-09-04)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
DTE.DE (2026-09-04)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
TEF.MC (2026-09-07)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
EUROB.AT (2026-09-07)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
AIR.PA (2026-09-08)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SAN.MC (2026-09-08)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
NDX1.DE (2026-09-08)
6.8/10
+0.0%
On Track
Penny Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live penny quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578
$3755.55
—
PYPD ×1564
$6940.50
—
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
—
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$35000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Hold
GLD
61.65
—
Current Holdings
⚠ Live sleeve quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65
$25000.00
—
IEF ×108
$10000.00
—
DBC ×654
$20000.00
—
SPLV ×132
$10000.00
—
Trend Follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$75717.93
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Sell
SMH
5.03
pending
Current Holdings
⚠ Live ETF quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86
$5539.52
—
SMH ×5.03
$2990.61
—
XLV ×30.27
$5207.77
—
XBI ×32
$5207.77
—
XLB ×93.53
$4954.78
—
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$28966.37
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Hold
USO
202
—
Current Holdings
⚠ Live commodity-ETF quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×202
$26216.50
—
GLD ×30.1
$11738.20
—
CPER ×136
$5372.73
—
SLV ×84.48
$4999.97
—
PPLT ×66.63
$1111.38
—
BNO ×35.14
$1850.57
—
URA ×23.16
$1066.93
—
UGA ×26.78
$3377.87
—
+11 more holdings
Track Record
5 On Track
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
PPLT (2026-09-05)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
URA (2026-09-05)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
USO (2026-09-02)
6/10
+2.9%
On Track
SLX (2026-09-07)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
COPX (2026-09-08)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$33371.62
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
BTC-USD
0.0084
—
Buy
ETH-USD
0.2670
—
Current Holdings
⚠ Live crypto quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5382
$34014.55
—
ETH-USD ×14.91
$28949.67
—
SOL-USD ×26.81
$2795.91
—
XRP-USD ×628
$868.24
—
Track Record
2 On Track
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BTC-USD (2026-09-04)
7.5/10
+1.1%
On Track
ETH-USD (2026-09-05)
6.5/10
+0.8%
On Track
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +88.00%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
MOVE index
The MOVE index is the bond market’s VIX: a yield-weighted average of implied volatility on 2-, 5-, 10- and 30-year Treasury options, expressed in basis points of yield.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Penny-stock risk: very low-priced, thinly traded securities can be illiquid, volatile and easy to manipulate. Spreads can be wide, exits may be impossible at the quoted price, and you can lose your entire investment. Ideas in this category are diligence starting points, not a buy list.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.