market_pulse — SPX analytics stamps composition close 7636.36 vs live Thu FMP 7591.7 (-2.80% from ATH 7810). FRED tiles are single-observation (no delta_bp). DTWEXBGS is weekly 2026-08-28. CL=F yahoo 101.03 vs Reuters WTI ~$103.45 — published web. VIX9D/VIX3M/MOVE lack tradeDate.
yesterday_retrospective — GET /movers?index=SPX returned a stale/broken table (MRNA −100%) — movers[] omitted. Asia/EU index /price spots stale; Thu session moves from Reuters/Kiplinger/The Edge used for Nikkei/HSI/DAX/FTSE.
us_equity_ideas — 13F/insider/sentiment empty for ORCL — flow factor null. Paid /price circuit_open (Stooq JS); used history last regular close 152.94 and web AH $162.50.
eu_equity_ideas — eu_fundamentals_gap — ISP.MI aggregator fundamentals empty. Last hist €6.656 on Sep 9 (no Sep 10). /news resolved the wrong issuer.
penny_plays — screener unavailable or empty for category=penny — no name cleared ≥6/10. Did not recycle BFRI/OTLK (13-run streak) or chase TNON after a +75% spike.
forex_rebalancing — squawk-alert feed unavailable — fell back to central-bank web search for same-day FX events. FX pair hist stale through 2026-08-29. EURUSD 1.1612 from Yahoo live.
commodities_outlook — USO /price hist still ends Sep 8; published BNO (Sep 10 63.13). CL=F yahoo 101.03 vs web WTI ~$103.45. COT/positioning empty. Book already loaded — HOLD/REDUCE, no new BUY.
crypto_landscape — Spot ETF flow is a Sep 10 print (−$283M BTC / −$30M ETH). No L2Beat/stablecoin supply number this run.
trend_follow — Universe still <200 closes — sma200 null, 200-day test fails, zero BUY. Last ETF prints mostly Sep 8. SMH 573.73 ≤ sma50 578.39 — EXIT remains live.
risk_cover_playbook — Put/call omitted (no options-flow endpoint). MOVE/VIX9D/VIX3M spots have no tradeDate. Stock-bond 20d corr uses hist through Sep 8.
portfolio_reality_check — Euro-only/Penny Plays/Commodities/Crypto/Anti-Fragile/Trend Follow books all_prices_estimated. INTC −76% is a cost-basis outlier — ignored for stop-loss. Only published post-reset 30d picks at ≤ −8% trigger a stop.
portfolio_reality_check — ISP.MI price rejected by Portfolio Manager's plausibility guard — see trade history
September FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥3.75–4.00%)
Probability: High • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $101023.47
Blended P&L: +1.02% • 30d Hit Rate: +68.90%
1 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 84 of 122 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 10.4%, average loss -4.7%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 3 minUST 10y 4.80 FRED / 4.94 live, VIX 17.84, HY OAS 2.67, weekly USD 118.75 (Aug 28), SPY−RSP d1 +0.46 — yields and vol up, breadth still 70% above SMA200.
MARKET PULSE
SPX 7591.7 −0.58% sits -2.8% from the ATH while VIX 17.84 and 10s 4.94% keep a tightening tape into today’s CPI — breadth is still 70% above SMA200.
Tightening Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
AIUST 10y 4.80 FRED / 4.94 live, VIX 17.84, HY OAS 2.67, weekly USD 118.75 (Aug 28), SPY−RSP d1 +0.46 — yields and vol up, breadth still 70% above SMA200.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,591.70
yday 7,636.36
▼ -0.58%
NASDAQ Data
26,081.72
yday 26,253.34
▼ -0.65%
Dow Jones Data
52,064.10
yday 52,380.66
▼ -0.60%
Russell 2K Data
2,890.95
yday 2,921.23
▼ -1.04%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
4,392.10
yday 4,443.70
▼ -1.16%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data
103.45
yday 96.05
▲ +7.70%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
77,245.00
yday 78,195.00
▼ -1.22%
Ethereum Data
2,465.95
yday 2,472.88
▼ -0.28%
Rates
10Y Yield Data
4.94
yday 4.83
▲ +2.36%
UST 10y Data
4.80
yday 4.80
—
UST 30y Data
5.25
yday 5.25
—
Eff. fed funds Data
3.63
yday 3.63
—
Credit
HY OAS Data
2.67
yday 2.67
—
IG OAS Data
0.81 pct
yday 0.81 pct
calm
HY-IG spread differential Data
1.86 pp
yday 1.86 pp
calm
Volatility
VIX Data
17.84
yday 16.46
—
VIX9D/VIX (term-structure slope) Data
0.99 ratio
watch
VIX/VIX3M (term-structure slope) Data
0.90 ratio
calm
MOVE index Data
82.09 index points
yday 76.14 index
watch
Dollar & FX
EUR/USD Data
1.16
yday 1.16
▼ -0.31%
USD broad (weekly) Data
118.75
yday 118.75
—
wk
Breadth
SPY−RSP 5d Data
+1.94pp
yday +1.94pp
—
SPY−RSP 21d Data
+0.78pp
yday +0.78pp
—
% from 52w Data
-2.22%
yday -1.75%
—
Stock-bond 20d correlation (SPY vs TLT) Data
0.46 ratio
yday 0.36 ratio
watch
% of SPX above SMA200 Data
69.95 pct
calm
Liquidity
SOFR–fed funds Data
0.01 pp
calm
Initial jobless claims Data
206,000.00 claims
calm
Cross-asset
Gold/Copper ratio (GLD/CPER) Data
10.15 ratio
watch
Other
UST 3y Data
4.44
yday 4.44
—
Cover checks
VIX Data
17.84 / 25.00
yday 16.46
Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread Data
0.40 / -0.20
yday 0.40 / -0.20
Not Triggered
HY OAS Data
2.67 / 5.00
yday 2.67
Not Triggered
SPX drawdown from ATH Data
-2.80 / -10.00
yday -2.22 / -10.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AIOil above $100 and PPI +5.4% y/y are still growth-plus-inflation; copper’s −3.8% is a tariff-delay headline, not a bust. HY OAS 2.67 has not blown and SPX is only about −2.8% from the ATH. Own gold + DBC + a 10% SPLV stub; keep TLT and SH at 0 until a trigger fires.
• Trim high-beta software vs the energy sleeve already on the commodities book
• Add the SH 10% crash overlay only if VIX >25 and a second trigger fires
• Do not buy TLT — inflationary_boom still wants long duration at zero
AI0/4 hard triggers fired; ~3 of 12 internals (stock-bond +0.46, VIX9D/VIX ~0.99, gold/copper 10.15) are watch. Gave stays inflationary_boom: oil + PPI + hike odds, copper’s drop is a tariff headline, HY 2.67 asleep. Same book — HOLD the four live sleeves.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 1 minThursday was the fourth down day: SPX 7591.7 −0.58% as August PPI printed +0.4% m/m / +5.4% y/y, Brent jumped toward $107–109, and the ECB delivered a unanimous +25 bp hike to a 2.50% DFR.
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Thursday was the fourth down day: SPX 7591.7 −0.58% as August PPI printed +0.4% m/m / +5.4% y/y, Brent jumped toward $107–109, and the ECB delivered a unanimous +25 bp hike to a 2.50% DFR.
Bridge to Today
Today’s August CPI at 8:30 ET is the print that decides whether Thursday’s oil-and-PPI backup sticks into the Sep 16–17 FOMC.
GeneralConcept of the Day 1 minWhat VIX term structure actually measures
CONCEPT OF THE DAY
What VIX term structure actually measures
Why today : Pulse has VIX 17.84 vs VIX3M 19.73 (contango ~0.90) and VIX9D 17.70 into CPI — the unused catalog term the cockpit named.
VIX term structure is the shape of implied volatility across maturities, not the VIX level itself. The usual calm state is contango: the 30-day VIX sits below the 3-month VIX, because insurance further out costs more. Backwardation — when the front of the curve is richer than the back — is the stress tell. A related short-horizon ratio is VIX9D over VIX: above 1 means the options market is charging more for the next nine days than for the next month, which usually marks a dated event (CPI, FOMC) rather than a slow regime shift. When this newsletter tiles VIX next to VIX9D and VIX3M, read the slope first. A 17–18 VIX in contango is cheap crash insurance with a near-term event premium; the same VIX in backwardation is a market that is already paying up for protection. Use the slope as a consistency check on any crash-cover trigger, not as a forecast that equities must fall.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 1 minISP.MI BUY
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
ISP.MINEW
Intesa Sanpaolo
6.7
—
ISP.MIVALUEBUYNEW
Intesa Sanpaolo • Financials
6.7/10Conviction
$6.66
▲ N/A
EGM just approved the capital increase for the €35.4B MPS bid at 96.96% — the vote is the 24h event; own the Italian consolidator into completion risk.
EGM 96.96%€35.4B MPS bidPrice Sep 9 only
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
5/10
52-week range
10 Sep EGM: 96.96% approved the capital increase for the €35.4B MPS bidUp to 5.7B new shares to fund the Monte dei Paschi offer
Invalidation: Bid blocked or a weekly close back below €6.20.
TradingView's price for ISP.MI. It is not the last print in this letter.
HOLD: oil above $100 keeps energy the RS leader vs SPY; do not add — book is at the 5-name cap.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sOil >$100 is the energy confirmation.Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s64.77 vs sma50 58.55; RS still positive.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
7/10
Brent ~$108 / WTI 8-day streakCPI/FOMC are the next RS test
Invalidation: A close back below sma50 58.55.
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
HOLD: still a held winner above the sleeve rule; no new biotech catalyst and no room to add.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo new biotech print; hold while above smaRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s161.93 last Sep 8; still a held winner.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5.5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
6/10
No new dated biotech print this run
Invalidation: A close back below the 50-day average.
TradingView's price for XBI. It is not the last print in this letter.
HOLD: defensive health-care sleeve stays while the EXIT rule has not fired and the book is full.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sDefensive hold; no new health-care triggerRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s167.13 last Sep 8; still above the sleeve
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5.5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
6/10
No new health-care trigger this run
Invalidation: A close back below the 50-day average.
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
HOLD: still above sma50 after copper’s tariff fade; do not add — REDUCE is the copper ETF, not this sleeve.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sCopper tariff fade is the materials risk.Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s51.94 vs sma50 ~51.7; still a hold.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5.5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
6/10
CPER −3.8% on the tariff delay is the materials risk
Invalidation: A close back below sma50 51.70.
TradingView's price for XLB. It is not the last print in this letter.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minBTC ETFs leaked $283M on Sep 10 and $450M in three days — HOLD the existing lot after yesterday’s 78195 fill; ETH HOLD on a $30M ETF leak.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
BTC ETFs leaked $283M on Sep 10 and $450M in three days — HOLD the existing lot after yesterday’s 78195 fill; ETH HOLD on a $30M ETF leak.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
6.3
-1.22%
ETH-USD
Ethereum
5.8
-0.28%
BTC-USDHOLD🔥 9-issue streak
Bitcoin
6.3/10Conviction
$77245.00
▼ -1.22%
Hold the existing BTC lot: spot ETFs lost $283M on Sep 10 and $450M in three days — do not add after yesterday’s 78195 fill.
Spot BTC ETF AUM still $97.5B; MTD flows +ETF −$283M Sep 10; 3-day −$450M into CPI.CPI 8:30 ET is the binary, not a new on-chHold the lot — do not re-buy after yesterdLive 77245 vs hist 78195; still far below
Fundamentals
6.5/10
Sentiment / flow
5.5/10
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
6.5/10
Spot BTC ETFs −$282.7M on Sep 10; 3-day −$449.5MMTD still +$320.5M; AUM $97.49BAugust CPI 2026-09-11 is the next flow test
Invalidation: Weekly close below $70k or a second consecutive $500M+ ETF outflow day.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Hold ETH: ETH ETFs leaked $30M on Sep 10 and the tape still tracks BTC’s CPI binary, not a fresh alt bid.
ETH still the second sleeve; no new L2 supETH ETFs −$29.8M on Sep 10 — small but samTracks BTC’s CPI binary; no standalone ETHHold, do not add — beta to BTC, not a new Live 2466 vs Sep 10 hist 2473.
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
5.5/10
Catalyst
5.5/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
ETH ETFs −$29.76M on Sep 10Tracks BTC into CPI; no standalone L2 print
Invalidation: Weekly close below $2,100 or ETH ETFs leaking faster than BTC on a 3-day basis.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 2 minOil is still the inflation sleeve (BNO 63.13 +6.4%); copper is the fade (CPER 39.04 −3.8% on a tariff delay) — HOLD BNO, REDUCE CPER, no new BUY.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Oil is still the inflation sleeve (BNO 63.13 +6.4%); copper is the fade (CPER 39.04 −3.8% on a tariff delay) — HOLD BNO, REDUCE CPER, no new BUY.
Oil up and copper down is not a clean gold+oil or copper+oil boom: Hormuz is still pricing energy while a refined-copper tariff delay knocked the…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BNO
Brent crude (BNO)
7.9
+6.42%
CPER
Copper (CPER)
6.9
-3.77%
Brent crude (BNO)ENERGYHOLD
BNO
7.9/10Conviction
$63.13
▲ +6.42%
Hold the existing Brent proxy: WTI’s 8-day streak and Brent ~$108 keep the Hormuz inflation sleeve live; do not chase a second energy add.
Brent ~$108 / WTI 8-day streak is the physNo COT/positioning feed — sentiment_flow nHormuz/Bab el-Mandeb still pricing oil aboOil-as-inflation-shock into CPI/FOMC, not BNO 63.13 +6.4% Sep 10; USO hist still sta
Fundamentals
8/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8.5/10
Narrative
7.5/10
Technicals
7.5/10
BNO 63.13 +6.42% on Sep 10 (fresh vs stale USO Sep 8)Reuters: oil set to end the week above $100; Brent ~$108August CPI 2026-09-11 and FOMC 2026-09-16 are the next oil-to-rates tests
Invalidation: Brent sustains a close back below $90 with Hormuz flows normalizing.
TradingView's price for BNO. It is not the last print in this letter.
Reduce the copper sleeve: the refined-copper tariff delay knocked CPER −3.8% off the record — the AI/tariff squeeze is no longer one-way.
Tariff delay fades the squeeze; LME had beNo COT/positioning feed — sentiment_flow nReuters: refined-copper tariff delay hit tAI/tariff copper squeeze is no longer one-CPER 39.04 −3.8% Sep 10 off the 40.57 prin
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
6.5/10
CPER 39.04 −3.77% on Sep 10 after a record LME ~$14,875/tReuters/ING: US refined-copper tariff delay faded the squeezeWASDE today is an ag print, not a reason to re-add copper
Invalidation: LME copper reclaims the record and holds a week after the tariff headline fades.
TradingView's price for CPER. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 9 min30d hit rate 69%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech US
+1.02%
Named holdings. 118 smaller positions (29.6%) are off this picture.
Tech US
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$101023.47
Cash
$12233.79
P&L
$1023.47 (+1.02%)
Realized P&L
$-3181.65
TWR
+1.79%
Sharpe
0.39
Max DD
-2.39%
Sortino
1.00
Calmar
5.32
Ann. return
+12.72%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions88%
Cash12%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
ORCL
1.54
dispatched
Sell
CSCO
21.7
pending
Sell
ESTC
4.27
pending
Sell
GAP
18.28
pending
Sell
HD
8.14
pending
Sell
RDDT
12.88
pending
Sell
HOOD
2.24
pending
Hold
XOM
—
—
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$8959.57
+5.1%
XOM ×129
$21285.24
+8.1%
UNH ×8.49
$3297.51
-8.9%
INTC ×14.08
$1412.58
-77.2%
MSFT ×11.91
$5866.19
+21.0%
SBUX ×11.63
$1153.55
-7.0%
CBRE ×8.29
$1144.13
-7.7%
AMZN ×5.95
$1499.43
-6.8%
+42 more holdings
Track Record
20 On Track · 19 Lagging · 6 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
ABNB (2026-09-01)
6.5/10
+2.2%
On Track
ADBE (2026-09-07)
6.5/10
-6.6%
Lagging
ADI (2026-08-21)
8/10
-2.4%
Lagging
AMAT (2026-08-13)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
AMD (2026-08-31)
6.5/10
+7.2%
On Track
AMZN (2026-08-29)
7/10
-6.8%
Lagging
APH (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
-3.1%
Lagging
AVGO (2026-08-22)
7/10
-2.1%
Lagging
CRM (2026-09-08)
7/10
-3.6%
Lagging
CRWD (2026-08-27)
8/10
-0.1%
Lagging
CSCO (2026-08-12)
7.5/10
-11.3%
Stopped Out
CVX (2026-09-08)
7/10
+7.0%
On Track
DELL (2026-09-03)
7.5/10
+2.9%
On Track
DUOL (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
-6.0%
Lagging
ESTC (2026-08-29)
8/10
-16.4%
Stopped Out
FIVE (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
-4.3%
Lagging
FRO (2026-09-08)
7/10
+19.7%
On Track
GAP (2026-08-30)
7/10
-10.9%
Stopped Out
GLW (2026-09-09)
6.8/10
+0.0%
On Track
HAL (2026-09-03)
6.5/10
-4.2%
Lagging
HD (2026-08-19)
8/10
-9.6%
Stopped Out
HOOD (2026-09-04)
7/10
-9.1%
Stopped Out
INTU (2026-08-26)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
JPM (2026-09-08)
6.5/10
-1.4%
Lagging
MRK (2026-08-20)
7/10
-4.9%
Lagging
MRVL (2026-08-22)
8/10
+123.8%
On Track
MU (2026-08-15)
7.5/10
+4.0%
On Track
NAT (2026-08-31)
7/10
+6.5%
On Track
NVDA (2026-08-28)
7.5/10
+1.0%
On Track
OI (2026-08-24)
7/10
-7.7%
Lagging
PSX (2026-09-07)
7/10
+1.3%
On Track
QCOM (2026-09-09)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
RDDT (2026-08-18)
7.5/10
-10.5%
Stopped Out
ROST (2026-08-23)
8/10
-3.5%
Lagging
RTX (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
-1.3%
Lagging
SHEL (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
+5.6%
On Track
SLB (2026-09-01)
7/10
-6.8%
Lagging
SNOW (2026-09-04)
7.5/10
-7.5%
Lagging
TGT (2026-08-22)
7/10
-3.1%
Lagging
V (2026-08-25)
7/10
-4.0%
Lagging
VLO (2026-09-02)
7/10
+9.7%
On Track
WMT (2026-08-20)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
XOM (2026-08-18)
7.5/10
+8.1%
On Track
JEF (2026-09-10)
6.3/10
+0.0%
On Track
ORCL (2026-09-11)
7.2/10
+0.0%
On Track
Euro-only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$121086.29
Cash
$20335.28
P&L
$21086.29 (+21.09%)
Realized P&L
$-42835.98
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
ISP.MI
61.1
—
Current Holdings
⚠ Live EU quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702
$23967.39
—
TTE.PA ×364
$26944.15
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
—
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
—
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
—
GLE.PA ×17.29
$1402.26
—
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
—
NWG.L ×191
$1346.17
—
+34 more holdings
Track Record
37 On Track · 1 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
ABN.AS (2026-08-24)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ADYEN.AS (2026-09-03)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
AIR.PA (2026-09-08)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
ALV.DE (2026-08-29)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ASML.AS (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
BAVA.CO (2026-08-23)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
DEME.BR (2026-08-27)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
DTE.DE (2026-09-04)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ENI.MI (2026-09-02)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
ENR.DE (2026-09-01)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
EOAN.DE (2026-08-27)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
EUROB.AT (2026-09-07)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
EVD.DE (2026-08-22)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
FGR.PA (2026-08-28)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
FLS.CO (2026-08-21)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
INW.MI (2026-08-26)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
IVG.MI (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
KGX.DE (2026-09-09)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
LR.PA (2026-08-31)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
MSLH.L (2026-08-11)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
MT.AS (2026-09-06)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
NDX1.DE (2026-09-08)
6.8/10
+0.0%
On Track
NSIS-B.CO (2026-08-21)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
PUB.PA (2026-09-04)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
REP.MC (2026-09-02)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
RWE.DE (2026-09-03)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SAN.MC (2026-09-08)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
SAP.DE (2026-08-30)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SHEL.L (2026-08-22)
6/10
+1.2%
On Track
SHL.DE (2026-08-24)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SIE.DE (2026-08-29)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SU.PA (2026-08-31)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
TEF.MC (2026-09-07)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
TKA.DE (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
TTE.PA (2026-09-01)
7/10
-1.9%
Lagging
VOD.L (2026-09-05)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
RIO.L (2026-09-10)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
ISP.MI (2026-09-11)
6.7/10
+0.0%
On Track
Penny Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Penny marks came back price_estimated — positions below are at cost.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578
$3755.55
—
PYPD ×1564
$6940.50
—
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
—
Track Record
4 On Track
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BFRI (2026-09-09)
5/10
+0.0%
On Track
INO (2026-08-24)
4.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
OTLK (2026-09-09)
4/10
+0.0%
On Track
PYPD (2026-08-19)
6.5/10
+6.1%
On Track
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$28966.37
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Commodity ETF marks came back price_estimated — positions below are at cost.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×202
$26216.50
—
GLD ×30.1
$11738.20
—
CPER ×136
$5372.73
—
SLV ×84.48
$4999.97
—
PPLT ×66.63
$1111.38
—
BNO ×35.14
$1850.57
—
URA ×23.16
$1066.93
—
UGA ×26.78
$3377.87
—
+11 more holdings
Track Record
15 On Track · 4 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BNO (2026-09-07)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
CANE (2026-09-06)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
COPX (2026-09-08)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
CORN (2026-08-31)
7/10
+1.1%
On Track
CPER (2026-09-09)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
GDX (2026-09-04)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
GLD (2026-08-30)
5/10
-0.4%
Lagging
LIT (2026-08-24)
6.5/10
-3.7%
Lagging
PALL (2026-08-30)
4/10
+2.1%
On Track
PPLT (2026-09-05)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SIL (2026-09-04)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
SLV (2026-09-01)
6.5/10
+2.5%
On Track
SLX (2026-09-07)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
SOYB (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
+2.1%
On Track
UGA (2026-09-06)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
UNG (2026-09-03)
6.5/10
-0.9%
Lagging
URA (2026-09-05)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
USO (2026-09-09)
6.3/10
+0.0%
On Track
WEAT (2026-08-30)
7.5/10
-3.1%
Lagging
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$32370.73
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Crypto marks came back price_estimated — positions below are at cost.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5510
$35015.45
—
ETH-USD ×14.91
$28949.67
—
SOL-USD ×26.81
$2795.91
—
XRP-USD ×628
$868.24
—
Track Record
3 On Track · 3 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BTC (2026-08-11)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
BTC-USD (2026-09-09)
7/10
-1.2%
Lagging
ETH (2026-08-11)
5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ETH-USD (2026-09-09)
5.8/10
-0.3%
Lagging
SOL-USD (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
-1.4%
Lagging
XRP-USD (2026-08-29)
6/10
+0.7%
On Track
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$35000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Anti-Fragile marks came back price_estimated — positions below are at cost.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65
$25000.00
—
IEF ×108
$10000.00
—
DBC ×654
$20000.00
—
SPLV ×132
$10000.00
—
Trend Follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$75717.93
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Sell
SMH
5.03
pending
Current Holdings
⚠ Trend Follow marks came back price_estimated — positions below are at cost.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86
$5539.52
—
SMH ×5.03
$2990.61
—
XLV ×30.27
$5207.77
—
XBI ×32
$5207.77
—
XLB ×93.53
$4954.78
—
Track Record
5 On Track · 5 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
ITA (2026-08-21)
4/10
-5.8%
Lagging
QQQ (2026-09-07)
3/10
+0.0%
On Track
SMH (2026-09-09)
4.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
XBI (2026-08-23)
8/10
-1.4%
Lagging
XLB (2026-08-23)
8/10
-3.1%
Lagging
XLE (2026-08-23)
8/10
+2.6%
On Track
XLF (2026-09-08)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
XLK (2026-09-08)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
XLRE (2026-08-20)
6.5/10
-2.6%
Lagging
XLV (2026-08-23)
8/10
-4.3%
Lagging
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +68.90%
Glossary
VIX term structure
VIX term structure is the shape of implied volatility across maturities, not the VIX level itself.
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.