yesterday_retrospective — Monday run: date_covered is Friday 2026-09-11 (last completed US/EU cash session). GET /movers 400 — movers[] omitted. Shanghai /price returned a stooq JS blob.
market_pulse — SPX analytics composition close 7591.7 (Thu) vs live Fri FMP 7656.98 (−1.96% from ATH 7810). VIXCLS 17.84 is Thu; spot VIX 15.84 Fri. DTWEXBGS weekly 2026-09-04 118.07. DFF 3.63 is Thu. First-pass /macro /screener /index hit 429; sequential refetch succeeded.
us_equity_ideas — 13F/congress empty; ALGT/COP insider circuit_open. Paid /price circuit_open — used history Fri closes 78.27 / 137.35. Screener-first then UBS (ALGT) + East-West (COP). ESI/VRTX dropped — no fresh 48h catalyst.
eu_equity_ideas — eu_fundamentals_gap — TTE.PA fundamentals/news empty. Price from history 78.77 on Sep 11. Did not recycle NOVN.SW / BP.L / ISP.MI.
penny_plays — screener unavailable or empty for category=penny — fell back to web search; penny universe may not be seeded yet. PYPD 5.15 and SVRA 5.30 fail the $5 screen. No name cleared ≥6/10. Did not recycle BFRI/OTLK.
forex_rebalancing — squawk-alert feed 429/unavailable — fell back to central-bank web search for same-day FX events. FRED ECBDFR still 2.25 (pre-effective); ECB hike to 2.50% effective 2026-09-16 from prior primary source. EURJPY hist last print Sep 9.
commodities_outlook — BNO /price hist ends Sep 11; Monday WTI/Brent from yahoo futures (102.74 / 107.34). COT/positioning empty. Book already loaded — HOLD, no new BUY. Widened scan (UNG/URA/WEAT/SLV) produced no second name that cleared the bar.
crypto_landscape — Spot ETF flow is a Sep 8–11 Farside/SoSoValue week (−$463M BTC / +$197M ETH). Stablecoin snapshot dated Sep 6. ETH-USD still a known PM 400 — HOLD, no BUY.
trend_follow — Universe still <200 closes — sma200 null, 200-day test fails, zero BUY. XLB 50.95 ≤ sma50 51.69; SMH 568.53 ≤ 577.32; XBI 156.20 ≤ 157.33 so EXIT stays. QQQ hist only 10 rows.
risk_cover_playbook — Put/call omitted (no options-flow endpoint). Stock-bond 20d corr +0.40 uses aligned hist through Sep 11.
concept_spotlight — Monday weekday — presentation=skip (Pulse terms already used in lookback).
portfolio_reality_check — INTC −76% is a cost-basis outlier (avg ~439 vs live ~103) — ignored for stop-loss. Only published post-reset 30d picks at ≤ −8% trigger a stop. CSCO −7.41%, ORCL −7.52%, SNOW −7.71% stay lagging. Env PORTFOLIO_ID_TECH_US overridden from api-keys.env.txt.
September FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥3.75–4.00%)
Probability: High • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $101998.36
Blended P&L: +2.00% • 30d Hit Rate: +71.30%
1 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 92 of 129 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 11.1%, average loss -4.5%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 3 minDGS10 4.95 (Sep 10), DFF 3.63, weekly USD 118.07 (Sep 4), VIX spot 15.84 vs FRED VIXCLS 17.84 (Sep 10), HY OAS 2.70; Monday WTI 102.74 and EURUSD 1.1558 are the fresh tightening prints.
MARKET PULSE
SPX 7657 is still 2.0% under the ATH with 44% advancing on the cached tape; Monday WTI 102.74 and EURUSD 1.1558 make the cockpit tightening into Wednesday’s FOMC.
Tightening Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
AIDGS10 4.95 (Sep 10), DFF 3.63, weekly USD 118.07 (Sep 4), VIX spot 15.84 vs FRED VIXCLS 17.84 (Sep 10), HY OAS 2.70; Monday WTI 102.74 and EURUSD 1.1558 are the fresh tightening prints.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,656.98
yday 7,656.98
▲ +0.86%
NASDAQ Data
26,333.04
yday 26,333.04
▲ +0.96%
Dow Jones Data
52,573.29
yday 52,573.29
▲ +0.98%
Russell 2K Data
2,903.94
yday 2,903.94
▲ +0.45%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
4,363.70
yday 4,408.90
0.00%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data
102.74
yday 100.05
▲ +2.80%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
77,565.00
yday 77,089.00
▲ +0.62%
Ethereum Data
2,513.91
yday 2,512.29
▲ +0.06%
Rates
10Y Yield Data
4.98
yday 4.98
0.00%
UST 10y Data
4.95
yday 4.95
—
UST 30y Data
5.37
yday 5.37
—
Credit
HY OAS Data
2.70
yday 2.70
—
IG OAS Data
0.80 pct
yday 0.80 pct
calm
HY−IG spread differential Data
1.90 pp
yday 1.90 pct
calm
Volatility
VIX Data
15.84
yday 15.84
0.00%
VIX (FRED) Data
17.84
yday 17.84
—
VIX spot Data
15.84
yday 15.84
—
VIX9D/VIX Data
0.91 ratio
calm
VIX/VIX3M term structure Data
0.85 ratio
calm
MOVE index Data
82.21 index
watch
Dollar & FX
EUR/USD Data
1.16
yday 1.16
▼ -0.37%
USD broad Data
118.07
yday 118.07
—
wk
Breadth
SPY−RSP 5d Data
+1.46pp
yday +1.46pp
—
SPY−RSP 21d Data
+0.89pp
yday +0.89pp
—
% from 52w Data
-1.96%
yday -1.96%
—
Stock-bond 20d correlation (SPY vs TLT) Data
0.40 ratio
yday 0.33 ratio
watch
% of S&P 500 above SMA200 Data
67.07 pct
yday 67.07 pct
calm
Liquidity
SOFR − DFF Data
-0.01 pp
calm
Initial claims (ICSA) Data
206,000.00 claims
yday 206,000.00 claims
calm
Cross-asset
Average pairwise sector correlation (11 SPDRs, ~20d) Data
0.14 ratio
calm
Gold/Copper ratio (GLD/CPER) Data
10.18 ratio
yday 10.15 ratio
calm
Other
UST 3y Data
4.63
yday 4.63
—
Eff. funds Data
3.63
yday 3.63
—
10s–2s Data
0.33
yday 0.33
—
Cover checks
VIX Data
15.84 / 25.00
yday 15.84
Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread Data
0.33 / -0.20
yday 0.33 / -0.20
Not Triggered
HY OAS Data
2.70 / 5.00
yday 2.70
Not Triggered
SPX drawdown from ATH Data
-1.96 / -15.00
yday -1.96 / -15.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AIMonday oil +3% with HY OAS still 2.70 and copper not collapsing is growth-plus-inflation, not stagflation. Keep Gave’s inflation mix: gold 25 / DBC 20 / IEF 10 / SPLV 10 / cash 35; TLT and SH stay at 0.
• Trim high-beta tech; do not add to ALGT/COP size beyond the 2% paper ticket
• Add the standing crash sleeve (SH 10) only if two hard triggers flip
AI0/4 hard triggers fired, but 2 of 11 internals are watch (stock-bond 20d corr +0.40, oil-led gold/copper still elevated) — consistent with a surface risk-on book that is already priced for an inflationary-boom mix, not a crash hedge. Named risks: FOMC Sep 16 and East-West oil.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 1 minFriday SPX 7656.98 +0.86% snapped a four-day slide as WTI slipped toward $100 even as August CPI pushed hike odds to ~86%.
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Friday SPX 7656.98 +0.86% snapped a four-day slide as WTI slipped toward $100 even as August CPI pushed hike odds to ~86%.
Bridge to Today
Monday’s Saudi East-West shutdown already re-priced Brent toward $108 — Wednesday’s FOMC is now an oil-and-rates test, not a relief-rally encore.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 4 minStill zero BUY: universe has ~50–61 closes so sma200 stays null. EXIT the held lots that lost the 50-day (SMH, XBI, XLB); HOLD XLE and XLV.
TREND FOLLOW
Still zero BUY: universe has ~50–61 closes so sma200 stays null. EXIT the held lots that lost the 50-day (SMH, XBI, XLB); HOLD XLE and XLV.
5 of 18 universe names close above their 50-day — the same narrow tape as Sunday, with energy still the only sleeve +10% vs its 50-day.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR
8
+0.57%
XLV
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
5.5
-1.06%
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
4
-0.91%
XBI
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
3.5
-3.54%
XLB
Materials Select Sector SPDR
3.5
-1.91%
XLEENERGYHOLD🔥 29-issue streak
Energy Select Sector SPDR
8/10Conviction
$65.14
▲ +0.57%
Over the next 2–4 weeks stay long energy beta while XLE holds 58.75; Monday’s oil gap is the tape, not a new BUY (no 200-day).
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sMonday WTI 102.74 after East-West shutdownRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s65.14 > sma50 58.75 (+10.9%); RS vs SPY +1
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
8/10
Monday WTI 102.74 after East-West shutdownXLE still +10.9% vs its 50-day
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$58.75).
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
Hold the existing lot while 165.36 stays above 163.63; no add without a 200-day.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sHolds the 50-day; no 200-day confirmation.Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s165.36 > sma50 163.63 (+1.1%); RS vs SPY +
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
6/10
Still above the 50-day after Friday’s health-care fade
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$163.63).
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLV · 20d illustrative range
SMHTECHNOLOGYEXIT🔥 29-issue streak
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
4/10Conviction
$568.53
▼ -0.91%
Exit the held lot — Friday 568.53 is still through 577.32; OpenAI’s no-2026-IPO headline is color, not a stay.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sOpenAI IPO delay hit Asia semis; rule is tRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s568.53 ≤ sma50 577.32 (−1.5%) — hard EXIT.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
Close ≤ sma50; Asia semis sold Monday on the OpenAI delay
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$577.32) would only stop a re-entry, not this EXIT.
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minBTC ETFs bled $463M last week while ETH ETFs took in $197M ($216M Friday). Hold both into FOMC/CLARITY — do not paper-buy ETH (known PM 400).
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
BTC ETFs bled $463M last week while ETH ETFs took in $197M ($216M Friday). Hold both into FOMC/CLARITY — do not paper-buy ETH (known PM 400).
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
5.2
+0.62%
ETH-USD
Ethereum
6.5
+0.06%
BTC-USDHOLD🔥 12-issue streak
Bitcoin
5.2/10Conviction
$77565.00
▲ +0.62%
Into Sep 16 FOMC, expect BTC to trade the $75–79k range while ETF outflows and hike odds keep the bid defensive — HOLD, not a chase.
Not a cash-flow asset — factor not scored.Spot BTC ETFs −$463M week of Sep 8–11 (FarFOMC Sep 16 (~87% hike) + CLARITY vote SepInstitutional de-risk vs ETH inflow rotati77,565 Mon vs 77,089 Sun; still below 79.8
Into the same FOMC/CLARITY window, expect ETH to keep the inflow lead vs BTC — HOLD only; PM still 400s ETH-USD buys.
Not a cash-flow asset — factor not scored.ETH ETFs +$197M week; +$216M Friday (SoSoVSame FOMC/CLARITY window; Friday $216M infInstitutional rotation into ETH vs BTC out2,513.91 Mon, flat vs Sun 2,512 after Frid
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
7/10
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
5/10
ETH ETFs +$216M Friday / +$197M weekFOMC 2026-09-16; CLARITY 2026-09-15
Invalidation: Weekly close below $2,200.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 1 minMonday WTI 102.74 / Brent 107.34 after the Saudi East-West shutdown; HOLD BNO — the book is already loaded, this is not a chase add.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Monday WTI 102.74 / Brent 107.34 after the Saudi East-West shutdown; HOLD BNO — the book is already loaded, this is not a chase add.
Oil +3% with HY OAS still 2.70 and 10s 4.95% is an inflation-sleeve tape, not a bust: if East-West stays shut into Wednesday’s FOMC, the next few sessions stay…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BNO
Brent crude (BNO)
6.8
-2.79%
Brent crude (BNO)ENERGYHOLD🔥 4-issue streak
BNO
6.8/10Conviction
$61.37
▼ -2.79%
Hold the existing Brent proxy into Wednesday’s FOMC: Monday WTI 102.74 / Brent 107.34 is a supply shock, not a fresh 2% add.
7mb/d bypass shut; ING still $80 4Q base iNo COT/positioning feed this run.Mon WTI 102.74 / Brent 107.34 after FridayHormuz + East-West is an inflation sleeve,Fri BNO 61.37 −2.79%; Monday futures gap i
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
5/10
Saudi East-West ~7mb/d shut after attacks (Sep 14)Oman Gulf-Iran Hormuz talks postponed (Sep 14)FOMC 2026-09-16 is the oil-to-rates test
Invalidation: Brent sustains a close back below $90 with the pipeline restarted.
TradingView's price for BNO. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 9 min30d hit rate 71%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech US
+2.00%
Named holdings. 118 smaller positions (29.71%) are off this picture.
Tech US
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$101998.36
Cash
$11989.12
P&L
$1998.36 (+2.00%)
Realized P&L
$-3181.65
TWR
+1.79%
Sharpe
0.35
Max DD
-2.39%
Sortino
0.92
Calmar
5.02
Ann. return
+12.01%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions88%
Cash12%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
ALGT
3.06
pending
Buy
COP
1.75
pending
Sell
ESTC
4.27
pending
Sell
GAP
18.28
pending
Sell
HD
8.14
pending
Sell
HOOD
2.24
pending
Sell
OI
66.09
pending
Sell
RDDT
12.88
pending
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$9068.62
+6.4%
XOM ×129
$21383.15
+8.6%
UNH ×8.49
$3219.46
-11.0%
INTC ×14.08
$1449.47
-76.6%
MSFT ×11.91
$5904.19
+21.8%
SBUX ×11.63
$1147.97
-7.4%
CBRE ×8.29
$1165.02
-6.0%
AMZN ×5.95
$1528.54
-5.0%
+42 more holdings
Track Record
25 On Track · 18 Lagging · 6 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
ABNB (2026-09-01)
6.5/10
+3.7%
On Track
ADBE (2026-09-07)
6.5/10
-5.4%
Lagging
ADI (2026-08-21)
8/10
+2.3%
On Track
AMAT (2026-08-13)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
AMD (2026-08-31)
6.5/10
+9.9%
On Track
AMZN (2026-08-29)
7/10
-5.0%
Lagging
APH (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
+1.4%
On Track
AVGO (2026-08-22)
7/10
-1.8%
Lagging
CRM (2026-09-08)
7/10
-1.7%
Lagging
CRWD (2026-08-27)
8/10
-1.1%
Lagging
CSCO (2026-08-12)
7.5/10
-7.4%
Lagging
CVX (2026-09-08)
7/10
+7.7%
On Track
DELL (2026-09-03)
7.5/10
+13.6%
On Track
DUOL (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
-7.0%
Lagging
ESTC (2026-08-29)
8/10
-16.5%
Stopped Out
FIVE (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
-3.0%
Lagging
FRO (2026-09-08)
7/10
+21.7%
On Track
GAP (2026-08-30)
7/10
-8.4%
Stopped Out
GLW (2026-09-09)
6.8/10
+0.0%
On Track
HAL (2026-09-03)
6.5/10
-4.8%
Lagging
HD (2026-08-19)
8/10
-8.7%
Stopped Out
HOOD (2026-09-04)
7/10
-9.7%
Stopped Out
INTU (2026-08-26)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
JPM (2026-09-08)
6.5/10
-0.7%
Lagging
MRK (2026-08-20)
7/10
-5.4%
Lagging
MRVL (2026-08-22)
8/10
+132.8%
On Track
MU (2026-08-15)
7.5/10
+3.8%
On Track
NAT (2026-08-31)
7/10
+10.2%
On Track
NVDA (2026-08-28)
7.5/10
+1.0%
On Track
OI (2026-08-24)
7/10
-9.1%
Stopped Out
PSX (2026-09-07)
7/10
+1.7%
On Track
QCOM (2026-09-09)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
RDDT (2026-08-18)
7.5/10
-9.1%
Stopped Out
ROST (2026-08-23)
8/10
-1.3%
Lagging
RTX (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
-1.6%
Lagging
SHEL (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
+6.5%
On Track
SLB (2026-09-01)
7/10
-6.7%
Lagging
SNOW (2026-09-04)
7.5/10
-7.7%
Lagging
TGT (2026-08-22)
7/10
-3.1%
Lagging
V (2026-08-25)
7/10
-3.1%
Lagging
VLO (2026-09-02)
7/10
+11.1%
On Track
WMT (2026-08-20)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
XOM (2026-08-18)
7.5/10
+8.6%
On Track
JEF (2026-09-10)
6.3/10
+0.0%
On Track
ORCL (2026-09-11)
7.2/10
-7.5%
Lagging
ESI (2026-09-13)
6.8/10
+0.0%
On Track
VRTX (2026-09-13)
6.9/10
+0.0%
On Track
ALGT (2026-09-14)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
COP (2026-09-14)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
Euro-only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$121086.29
Cash
$20335.28
P&L
$21086.29 (+21.09%)
Realized P&L
$-42835.98
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
TTE.PA
5.16
—
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702
$23967.39
—
TTE.PA ×364
$26944.15
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
—
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
—
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
—
GLE.PA ×17.29
$1402.26
—
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
—
NWG.L ×191
$1346.17
—
+34 more holdings
Track Record
40 On Track · 1 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
ABN.AS (2026-08-24)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ADYEN.AS (2026-09-03)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
AIR.PA (2026-09-08)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
ALV.DE (2026-08-29)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ASML.AS (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
BAVA.CO (2026-08-23)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
DEME.BR (2026-08-27)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
DTE.DE (2026-09-04)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ENI.MI (2026-09-02)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
ENR.DE (2026-09-01)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
EOAN.DE (2026-08-27)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
EUROB.AT (2026-09-07)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
EVD.DE (2026-08-22)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
FGR.PA (2026-08-28)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
FLS.CO (2026-08-21)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
INW.MI (2026-08-26)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
IVG.MI (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
KGX.DE (2026-09-09)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
LR.PA (2026-08-31)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
MSLH.L (2026-08-11)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
MT.AS (2026-09-06)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
NDX1.DE (2026-09-08)
6.8/10
+0.0%
On Track
NSIS-B.CO (2026-08-21)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
PUB.PA (2026-09-04)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
REP.MC (2026-09-02)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
RWE.DE (2026-09-03)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SAN.MC (2026-09-08)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
SAP.DE (2026-08-30)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SHEL.L (2026-08-22)
6/10
+1.2%
On Track
SHL.DE (2026-08-24)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SIE.DE (2026-08-29)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SU.PA (2026-08-31)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
TEF.MC (2026-09-07)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
TKA.DE (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
TTE.PA (2026-09-01)
7/10
-1.9%
Lagging
VOD.L (2026-09-05)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
RIO.L (2026-09-10)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
ISP.MI (2026-09-11)
6.7/10
+0.0%
On Track
BP.L (2026-09-12)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
NOVN.SW (2026-09-13)
6.2/10
+0.0%
On Track
TTE.PA (2026-09-14)
7.3/10
+0.0%
On Track
Penny Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578
$3755.55
—
PYPD ×1564
$6940.50
—
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
—
Track Record
4 On Track
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BFRI (2026-09-09)
5/10
+0.0%
On Track
INO (2026-08-24)
4.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
OTLK (2026-09-09)
4/10
+0.0%
On Track
PYPD (2026-08-19)
6.5/10
+6.1%
On Track
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$35000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65
$25000.00
—
IEF ×108
$10000.00
—
DBC ×654
$20000.00
—
SPLV ×132
$10000.00
—
Trend Follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$75717.93
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Sell
SMH
5.03
pending
Sell
XBI
32
pending
Sell
XLB
93.53
pending
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86
$5539.52
—
SMH ×5.03
$2990.61
—
XLV ×30.27
$5207.77
—
XBI ×32
$5207.77
—
XLB ×93.53
$4954.78
—
Track Record
5 On Track · 5 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
ITA (2026-08-21)
4/10
-5.8%
Lagging
QQQ (2026-09-07)
3/10
+0.0%
On Track
SMH (2026-09-09)
4.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
XBI (2026-08-23)
8/10
-1.4%
Lagging
XLB (2026-08-23)
8/10
-3.1%
Lagging
XLE (2026-08-23)
8/10
+2.6%
On Track
XLF (2026-09-08)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
XLK (2026-09-08)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
XLRE (2026-08-20)
6.5/10
-2.6%
Lagging
XLV (2026-08-23)
8/10
-4.3%
Lagging
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$28966.37
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×202
$26216.50
—
GLD ×30.1
$11738.20
—
CPER ×136
$5372.73
—
SLV ×84.48
$4999.97
—
PPLT ×66.63
$1111.38
—
BNO ×35.14
$1850.57
—
URA ×23.16
$1066.93
—
UGA ×26.78
$3377.87
—
+11 more holdings
Track Record
15 On Track · 4 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BNO (2026-09-07)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
CANE (2026-09-06)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
COPX (2026-09-08)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
CORN (2026-08-31)
7/10
+1.1%
On Track
CPER (2026-09-09)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
GDX (2026-09-04)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
GLD (2026-08-30)
5/10
-0.4%
Lagging
LIT (2026-08-24)
6.5/10
-3.7%
Lagging
PALL (2026-08-30)
4/10
+2.1%
On Track
PPLT (2026-09-05)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SIL (2026-09-04)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
SLV (2026-09-01)
6.5/10
+2.5%
On Track
SLX (2026-09-07)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
SOYB (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
+2.1%
On Track
UGA (2026-09-06)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
UNG (2026-09-03)
6.5/10
-0.9%
Lagging
URA (2026-09-05)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
USO (2026-09-09)
6.3/10
+0.0%
On Track
WEAT (2026-08-30)
7.5/10
-3.1%
Lagging
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$32370.73
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5510
$35015.45
—
ETH-USD ×14.91
$28949.67
—
SOL-USD ×26.81
$2795.91
—
XRP-USD ×628
$868.24
—
Track Record
3 On Track · 3 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BTC (2026-08-11)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
BTC-USD (2026-09-09)
7/10
-1.2%
Lagging
ETH (2026-08-11)
5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ETH-USD (2026-09-09)
5.8/10
-0.3%
Lagging
SOL-USD (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
-1.4%
Lagging
XRP-USD (2026-08-29)
6/10
+0.7%
On Track
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +71.30%
Glossary
gold/copper ratio
The gold/copper ratio is just GLD (or bullion) divided by a copper proxy.
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.