UST 10y 4.94 10y (^TNX) 4.998 +0.05Eff. fed funds 3.88 FF upper 4 USD broad (weekly) 118.0732 VIX spot 14.81
MORNING ALPHA

Daily Financial Newsletter

Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 09:32:00 · archived issue
EN FR
Read the Full Letter Here Support Morning Alpha
⚠ Data quality : DEGRADED · 12 notes
⚠ Data quality: DEGRADED
yesterday_retrospective — Squawk-alert 401. /movers without ?index=SPX 400; with it dated 2026-09-17 not Friday. Shanghai /price Stooq close None — Asia SHCOMP 3,912 +0.94% from MarketScreener. Sector SPDR hist skips Sep 16/17 — do not treat XLK 189.60 as a Friday-only print; SOX +2.78% is the web Friday semis tape.
market_pulse — SPX analytics close 7637.76 / lastSession 2026-09-17 vs live eodhd 7650.50 — used live tiles; breadth/ATH from analytics. DGS10 FRED 4.94 Sep 17 vs ^TNX 4.998 (eodhd 49.98/10). DTWEXBGS weekly Sep 4 118.07. DFF 3.88. Macro observations[] often 2011-dated — used latest{}.
us_equity_ideas — /news missed the Huang/Semicon-India and SEC-exemption tape — used MarketScreener/Gate/CNBC/Jones Day. Widened off HAE/JBHT/LITE/IREN.
eu_equity_ideas — eu_fundamentals_gap — ORSTED.CO /fundamentals and /news empty. Hist last 130.60 Sep 15 vs eodhd Fri 136.65; published 136.65 / +4.63%. EUR dispatch 136.65 DKK ÷ EURDKK 7.4726 = 18.2868. Widened off DRX.L/NXT.L/EXENS.PA/SOI.PA.
penny_plays — screener category=penny n=0 — publish zero ideas. Did not recycle BFRI watchlist.
forex_rebalancing — squawk-alert 401. EURJPY live 179.53 (eodhd 2026-09-19). DTWEXBGS weekly Sep 4. JPY contrarian_note backed by a reported BoJ rate check after USD/JPY tagged ~158.
commodities_outlook — Did not re-BUY CPER/WEAT/USO. USO/SLV /price change_pct null — used hist. COT empty. JO hist n=0. Widened off CPER/WEAT/USO.
crypto_landscape — No fresh Sep 18 ETF print — do not recycle Sep 17 Farside. ETH-USD still a known PM 400 — HOLD, no BUY. Sentiment empty. Weekend BTC/ETH are 2026-09-19 coingecko prints.
trend_follow — Universe still <200 closes — sma200 null, 200-day test fails, zero BUY. SMH reclaimed sma50 (573 > 571.37) so HOLD not EXIT. Skip duplicate XBI/XLB PENDING SELLs.
risk_cover_playbook — Put/call omitted (no fresh Cboe print). Stock-bond 20d corr +0.28 uses aligned SPY/TLT hist through Sep 18 (SPY skips Sep 17). ICSA 196k Sep 12, not a 4-week average.
portfolio_reality_check — INTC cost-basis outlier ignored for stop-loss. DUOL −8.13% vs Sep 6 pick 154.46 SELL PENDING. HAL −10.60% vs Sep 3 pick 37.63 already PENDING — skip restack. AMZN recovered to −7.14% vs implied pick — lagging, SELL still PENDING. CSCO/SLB/ORCL/ESTC/GAP/HD/RDDT/HOOD/OI already PENDING — skip. File PORTFOLIO_ID_TECH_US wins over stale env.
portfolio_reality_check — Euro-only/Penny Plays/Commodities/Crypto/Anti-Fragile/Trend books all_prices_estimated; Tech US marks were live post-dispatch.
General
GeneralThe Bottom Line 1 minConcentrated semis tape (SPX 7650.50 +0.17%, VIX 14.81) against a 5% 10-year — own LRCX/SLV, not cyclicals.
THE BOTTOM LINE
RISK-ON=
Concentrated semis tape (SPX 7650.50 +0.17%, VIX 14.81) against a 5% 10-year — own LRCX/SLV, not cyclicals.
High-yield OAS 2.7 bp
150 bp800 bp
Under 350 bp scores +1. Wider spreads score 0, then −1, then −2.
S&P shares above the 200-day 62.7%
0%100%
Above 65% scores +1. 40–65% scores 0. Under 40% scores −1.
Today's Top Picks
LRCX
7.4/10
COIN
7.4/10
SLV
7/10
ORSTED.CO
6.8/10
SMH
6.5/10
Biggest Risk
September FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥3.75–4.00%)
Probability: High • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $102023.54
Blended P&L: +2.02% • 30d Hit Rate: +73.00%
1 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 109 of 151 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 10.8%, average loss -5.2%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 3 minSpot VIX 14.81 in term-structure contango (VIX/VIX3M 0.81) and ^TNX 4.998; FRED 10y latest 4.94 (Sep 17); weekly USD 118.07 (Sep 4); HY OAS 2.70. Equities bought SOX, not the Dow, with a 5%…
MARKET PULSE
Concentrated risk-on: SPX 7,650.50 +0.17% and VIX 14.81 (VIX9D 12.27 / VIX3M 18.24 contango) against a 4.998% 10-year — the bid is SOX, not cyclicals.
Risk-on, concentrated Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
AISpot VIX 14.81 in term-structure contango (VIX/VIX3M 0.81) and ^TNX 4.998; FRED 10y latest 4.94 (Sep 17); weekly USD 118.07 (Sep 4); HY OAS 2.70. Equities bought SOX, not the Dow, with a 5% 10-year.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data7,650.50
yday 7,637.76
▲ +0.17%
NASDAQ Data26,522.54
yday 26,418.30
▲ +0.39%
Dow Jones Data51,682.64
yday 51,778.04
▼ -0.18%
Russell 2K Data2,860.40
yday 2,874.63
▼ -0.50%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data4,424.90
yday 4,433.20
▲ +1.68%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data100.30
yday 100.15
▼ -0.79%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data80,937.00
yday 77,533.00
▲ +4.39%
Ethereum Data2,623.26
yday 2,485.36
▲ +5.55%
Rates
10Y Yield Data5.00
yday 4.95
▲ +1.03%
2s10s Data0.25
yday 0.27
—
UST 10y Data4.94
yday 5.01
—
10y (^TNX) Data5.00
yday 4.95
+0.05
Eff. fed funds Data3.88
yday 3.63
—
Credit
HY OAS Data2.70
yday 2.70
—
IG OAS Data0.78 pct
yday 0.78 pct
calm
HY−IG OAS differential Data1.92 pp
yday 1.92 pp
calm
Volatility
VIX Data14.81
yday 15.44
▼ -4.08%
VIX spot Data14.81
yday 15.44
—
VIX9D/VIX Data0.83 ratio
yday 0.87 ratio
calm
VIX/VIX3M Data0.81 ratio
yday 0.83 ratio
calm
MOVE Data80.64 index
yday 76.22 index
watch
Dollar & FX
EUR/USD Data1.15
yday 1.15
▼ -0.01%
USD broad (weekly) Data118.07
yday 118.07
—
wk
Breadth
SPY−RSP 5d Data+0.00pp
yday +0.00pp
—
SPY−RSP 21d Data+1.44pp
yday +1.44pp
—
% from 52w Data-2.21%
yday -3.31%
—
Stock-bond 20d correlation (SPY vs TLT) Data0.28 ratio
yday 0.24 ratio
watch
Liquidity
Initial claims (ICSA) Data196,000.00 claims
yday 196,000.00 claims
calm
Cross-asset
Gold/Copper (GC=F / HG=F) Data668.90 ratio
yday 667.40 ratio
calm
Other
FF upper Data4.00
yday 4.00
—
Cover checks
VIX Data14.81 / 25.00
yday 15.44
Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread Data0.25 / -0.20
yday 0.27
Not Triggered
HY OAS Data2.70 / 5.00
yday 2.70
Not Triggered
SPX drawdown from ATH Data-2.04 / -10.00
yday -2.21 / -10.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AIThe Fed already hiked because inflation is still the reaction function and WTI is $100 even after the unwind; claims 196k and 63% of SPX above SMA200 say growth is intact. Own gold + broad commodities + a small SPLV stub — TLT stays at 0.
DataHedge instruments : GLD, TLT, SH, IEF · Target cash 15%
Sleeve TickerTarget Action
Gold AIGLD25%Hold
Long bonds AITLT0%Exit
Intermediate bonds AIIEF10%Hold
Commodities AIDBC20%Hold
Defensive equity AISPLV10%Hold
Crash hedge AISH0%Exit
Cash AI—35%Hold
If triggered today — do this now AI
• Trim high-beta WFE/crypto-beta (LRCX/COIN/SMH) rather than the whole book
• Add TLT/IEF only if the 10y breaks back through 4.80%
• Size SH only if VIX >25 and 2+ internals are stress
AI0/4 hard triggers fired; VIX 14.81 in contango and HY OAS 2.70 are calm. Inflationary-boom weights stay gold 25 / IEF 10 / DBC 20 / SPLV 10 / cash 35. The live risk is a follow-up hike or a USD/JPY air-pocket, not a crash hedge.
Overnight tape
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 2 minFriday closed mixed into a 5% 10-year and $7T quad-witching: SPX 7,650.50 +0.17% and Nasdaq +0.39% on SOX +2.78%, while the Dow −0.18% and Europe sold 1.1–1.6%.
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Friday closed mixed into a 5% 10-year and $7T quad-witching: SPX 7,650.50 +0.17% and Nasdaq +0.39% on SOX +2.78%, while the Dow −0.18% and Europe sold 1.1–1.6%.
How Yesterday Unfolded
Asia  Asia digested the BoJ 7–2 hike to 1.25%: Nikkei 65,018.95 +1.38%, Hang Seng 24,750.78 +0.77%, Kospi 6,894.23 +2.66%; Shanghai 3,912 +0.94% (MarketScreener; aggregator Stooq close was None).
Europe  Europe sold the two-hike week: Stoxx 600 635.43 −1.12%, DAX 25,304.06 −1.60%, CAC 8,065.02 −1.49%, FTSE 10,659.13 −1.45% as the 10-year reclaimed 5%.
US  US cash mixed: SPX 7,650.50 +0.17%, Nasdaq 26,522.54 +0.39%, Dow 51,682.64 −0.18%, RUT 2,860.40 −0.50%; VIX 14.81 −4.08%; ^TNX 4.998.
Capital Rotation
Cyclicals / Dow / Europe (Dow −0.18%; Stoxx −1.12%) → Semis / Nasdaq (SOX +2.78%; LRCX +6.87%) · Nasdaq +0.39% vs Dow −0.18%; SOX +2.78%; 10y back through 5%.
Huang’s 2x-chips remark and a $7T witching concentrated the bid in WFE, not in cyclicals.
Crude disruption premium (WTI 101.10→100.30) → Gold / silver (GC=F +1.68% to 4,424.90) · WTI −0.79% still >$100; gold +1.68%; SLV 59.93 vs 56.84 Sep 14.
A 5% 10-year and fading Hormuz talk rotated the commodity bid into precious, not crude.
Key Drivers
10-year back through 5% into $7T quad-witching — Reuters: yields topped 5% as roughly $7T of options expired; SPX only +0.17% with Nasdaq advancers 1,973 vs 2,810 decliners.
SOX +2.78% on Huang 2x chips — Gate: Philadelphia Semiconductor +2.78%; LRCX +6.87%, AMAT +6.51% after Nvidia’s CEO said he expects to sell twice as many chips next year.
BoJ 7–2 hike to 1.25% plus a reported rate check — USD/JPY tagged ~158 then pared after a reported BoJ rate check; Europe sold the two-hike week end-to-end.
Bridge to Today
Watch whether the 10-year holds 5% and USD/JPY stays offered after the BoJ rate-check, or another inflation print reloads the hike premium.
GeneralConcept of the Day 1 minWhat VIX term structure actually measures
CONCEPT OF THE DAY
What VIX term structure actually measures
Why today : Pulse has VIX 14.81 under VIX3M 18.24 and VIX9D 12.27 — a Saturday lesson in why a sub-15 VIX in contango is cheap insurance, not a green light.
VIX term structure is the shape of implied volatility across maturities — typically VIX9D (9-day), VIX (30-day), and VIX3M (3-month). In a calm tape the curve sits in contango: near-dated insurance is cheaper than longer-dated, because the market charges more for uncertainty that has more time to arrive. Backwardation — front-month vol above the 3-month — is the crash signal: dealers are paying up for insurance that expires this week. The ratio VIX/VIX3M below 1 is contango; above 1 is backwardation. Read it beside the level. A mid-teens VIX in deep contango is cheap, unused insurance, not a forecast that nothing can break. Next time this newsletter prints VIX next to VIX3M, check the slope first — the level says how expensive insurance is, the slope says whether the market is buying it for this week or just warehousing it.
Stocks
Ideas board
TickerRegionCall Conv. Price1dType
LRCXLam Research USBUY7.4 288.11+6.98% Growth
COINCoinbase Global USBUY7.4 194.25+11.66% Crypto
ORSTED.COØrsted EUBUY6.8 136.65+4.63% Recovery
StocksUS Equity Ideas 2 minLRCX BUY · COIN BUY
US EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
LRCXNEW Lam Research 7.4 +6.98%
COINNEW Coinbase Global 7.4 +11.66%
LRCX  GROWTH BUYNEW
Lam Research • Information Technology
7.4/10 Conviction
$288.11
▲ +6.98%
Over the next 2–4 weeks treat LRCX as the WFE proxy for Huang’s 2x-chips remark — size a 2% add, do not chase a second-day gap.
SOX +2.78%Fri +6.98%ROE 58%
Fundamentals
8/10
Sentiment / flow
7/10
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
7/10
Gate 2026-09-18: SOX +2.78%; LRCX +6.87% after Huang said Nvidia expects to sell 2x chips next year 247wallst: LRCX +5% as chip-equipment outran the sector Close 288.11 vs 269.31 (+6.98%, eodhd 2026-09-18)
Target
$330.00
Invalidation: Daily close back through $260 after the SOX fade.
LRCX between stop and target 288.11
250330
Stop on the left, target on the right. Red and green mark those ends only. The tick is the last price.

TradingView's price for LRCX. It is not the last print in this letter.

LRCX · 20d illustrative range
LRCX illustrative 20-day price cone from 288.11: 5th pct 201.08, median 282.07, 95th pct 395.69 (vol 73.04% annualised)LRCX · 20d illustrative range189.4262.06334.71407.37Illustrative · vol 73.04% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
COIN  CRYPTO BUYNEW
Coinbase Global • Financials
7.4/10 Conviction
$194.25
▲ +11.66%
Over the next 2–4 weeks treat COIN as the listed TSV proxy for the SEC’s 5-year Innovation Exemption — size 2%, do not chase the +12% gap.
SEC exemptionFri +11.7%BTC >$80k
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
8/10
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
7/10
SEC Innovation Exemption effective 2026-09-17 through 2031 for tokenized NMS venues Reuters/CNBC: five-year relief after CLARITY failed Close 194.25 vs 173.97 (+11.66%); BTC 80,937
Target
$230.00
Invalidation: Daily close back through $165 after the exemption fade.
COIN between stop and target 194.25
150230
Stop on the left, target on the right. Red and green mark those ends only. The tick is the last price.

TradingView's price for COIN. It is not the last print in this letter.

COIN · 20d illustrative range
COIN illustrative 20-day price cone from 194.25: 5th pct 101.76, median 182.4, 95th pct 326.95 (vol 125.95% annualised)COIN · 20d illustrative range88.25172.32256.39340.46Illustrative · vol 125.95% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 1 minORSTED.CO BUY
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
ORSTED.CONEW Ørsted 6.8 +4.63%
ORSTED.CO  RECOVERY BUYNEW
Ørsted • Utilities
6.8/10 Conviction
$136.65
▲ +4.63%
Treat ORSTED as the UK-tax-overhang lift — size 2% in EUR (136.65 DKK ÷ 7.4726), do not wait for a second DK print.
UK tax opinion136.65 DKKEUR 18.29 fill
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
6/10
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
6/10
10 Sep 2026: EU Arbitration Convention opinion — Walney Extension / Hornsea 1 taxed primarily in the UK Reuters 2026-09-11: commission backs UK taxation; DKK 6.6bn claim contained in provisions Close 136.65 DKK (eodhd 2026-09-18) vs 130.60 Sep 15
Target
$155.00
Invalidation: Close back through 125 DKK on a failed DTA follow-through.
ORSTED.CO between stop and target 136.65
115155
Stop on the left, target on the right. Red and green mark those ends only. The tick is the last price.

TradingView's price for ORSTED.CO. It is not the last print in this letter.

ORSTED.CO · 20d illustrative range
ORSTED.CO illustrative 20-day price cone from 136.65: 5th pct 109.53, median 135.51, 95th pct 167.66 (vol 45.94% annualised)ORSTED.CO · 20d illustrative range106.04127.74149.45171.15Illustrative · vol 45.94% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 4 minZero BUY: sma200 is still null. SMH reclaimed its 50-day (573 > 571.37) so HOLD; XLE/XLV stay HOLD; XBI/XLB remain EXIT — PENDING SELLs already queued.
TREND FOLLOW
Zero BUY: sma200 is still null. SMH reclaimed its 50-day (573 > 571.37) so HOLD; XLE/XLV stay HOLD; XBI/XLB remain EXIT — PENDING SELLs already queued.
Only XLE is cleanly above its 50-day with positive 20d RS vs SPY. sma200 still fails for every name — zero new BUY.
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR 6.3 -2.46%
XLV Health Care Select Sector SPDR 6 +0.44%
SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF 6.5 +5.03%
XBI SPDR S&P Biotech ETF 3.7 +1.65%
XLB Materials Select Sector SPDR 3.3 -1.46%
XLE  ENERGY HOLD 🔥 35-issue streak
Energy Select Sector SPDR
6.3/10 Conviction
$64.31
▼ -2.46%
Hold the energy sleeve while close stays above the 50-day; do not add until sma200 exists.
No XLE-level earnings tape.No energy-ETF flow print.Hold while close stays above sma50.Energy sleeve still the clean 50-day hold.64.31 vs sma50 59.40 (+8.27%).
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
8/10
Last print 64.31 Sep 18; vs sma50 +8.27% vs SPY 20d +7.82%
Invalidation: Daily close ≤ 59.40 sma50.

TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.

XLE · 20d illustrative range
XLE illustrative 20-day price cone from 64.31: 5th pct 56.52, median 64.12, 95th pct 72.74 (vol 27.22% annualised)XLE · 20d illustrative range55.5561.667.6673.71Illustrative · vol 27.22% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
XLV  HEALTH CARE HOLD 🔥 34-issue streak
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
6/10 Conviction
$168.39
▲ +0.44%
Hold the health sleeve above the 50-day; sma200 is still null so this is not an add.
No XLV-level earnings tape.No health-ETF flow print.Hold; sma200 still null so no add.Defensive sleeve above the 50-day.168.39 vs sma50 164.65 (+2.27%).
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
7/10
Last print 168.39 Sep 18; vs sma50 +2.27% vs SPY 20d +3.54%
Invalidation: Daily close ≤ 164.65 sma50.

TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.

XLV · 20d illustrative range
XLV illustrative 20-day price cone from 168.39: 5th pct 153.88, median 168.15, 95th pct 183.73 (vol 19.13% annualised)XLV · 20d illustrative range152.09163.23174.38185.52Illustrative · vol 19.13% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
SMH  INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY HOLD 🔥 35-issue streak
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
6.5/10 Conviction
$573.00
▲ +5.03%
SMH reclaimed the 50-day on the SOX tape — HOLD, do not EXIT, and do not add until sma200 exists.
No SMH-level earnings tape.SOX +2.78% on Huang 2x chips.Reclaimed sma50 571.37 — HOLD not EXIT.Semis tape is concentrated, not a new BUY.573.00 vs sma50 571.37 (+0.28%).
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
7/10
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
573.00 > sma50 571.37 after SOX +2.78% Huang 2x-chips remark (Gate 2026-09-18)
Invalidation: Daily close back through 571.37 sma50.

TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.

SMH · 20d illustrative range
SMH illustrative 20-day price cone from 573: 5th pct 441.26, median 566.43, 95th pct 727.12 (vol 53.89% annualised)SMH · 20d illustrative range424.11530.83637.55744.27Illustrative · vol 53.89% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
XBI  HEALTH CARE EXIT 🔥 34-issue streak
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
3.7/10 Conviction
$156.72
▲ +1.65%
Stay EXIT — 156.72 is still through the 50-day; PENDING SELL already queued.
No XBI-level earnings tape.No biotech-ETF flow print.Close ≤ sma50; EXIT already PENDING.Do not restack a PENDING EXIT.156.72 vs sma50 157.48 (−0.48%).
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
3/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
4/10
156.72 ≤ sma50 157.48 PENDING SELL already queued — skip restack
Invalidation: Close reclaims sma50 on a full session.

TradingView's price for XBI. It is not the last print in this letter.

XLB  MATERIALS EXIT 🔥 34-issue streak
Materials Select Sector SPDR
3.3/10 Conviction
$49.99
▼ -1.46%
Stay EXIT — Friday’s copper bid is a CPER story, not an XLB 50-day reclaim.
No XLB-level earnings tape.No materials-ETF flow print.Close ≤ sma50; copper is CPER, not XLB.Do not restack a PENDING EXIT.49.99 vs sma50 51.64 (−3.19%).
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
3/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
3/10
49.99 ≤ sma50 51.64 PENDING SELL already queued — skip restack
Invalidation: Close reclaims sma50 on a full session.

TradingView's price for XLB. It is not the last print in this letter.

Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Forex
ForexForex Rebalancing Radar 1 min
FOREX REBALANCING RADAR
Base currency: EUR
Currency vs EUR Short-term Medium-term Long-term
USD 🔥24 SEEK (5) SEEK (4) NEUTRAL (0)
JPY 🔥7 AVOID (-3) AVOID (-2) NEUTRAL (0)
GBP 🔥18 NEUTRAL (0) NEUTRAL (0) NEUTRAL (0)
CHF 🔥15 NEUTRAL (0) NEUTRAL (0) NEUTRAL (0)
Suggested rebalancing actions
INCREASE USD vs EUR — 10y back through 5% and FF upper 4.00 keep the USD real-rate edge vs EUR into October CPI.
Conviction 50%
Crypto
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minWeekend bid, not a new cycle: BTC 80,937 +4.4% and ETH 2,623 +5.6% vs Friday — HOLD both; do not add, and do not BUY ETH-USD (known PM 400).
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Weekend bid, not a new cycle: BTC 80,937 +4.4% and ETH 2,623 +5.6% vs Friday — HOLD both; do not add, and do not BUY ETH-USD (known PM 400).
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
BTC-USD Bitcoin 6.6 +4.39%
ETH-USD Ethereum 5.6 +5.55%
BTC-USD  HOLD 🔥 18-issue streak
Bitcoin
6.6/10 Conviction
$80937.00
▲ +4.39%
Over the next two sessions expect BTC to defend $78–82k only if the weekend bid holds — do not add on one Sunday print.
No supply shock; spot 80,937.Weekend bid +4.4% vs Fri 77,533.SEC exemption is COIN’s, not a BTC ETF priRepair above $80k, not a new cycle break.80,937 vs 77,533 Friday (+4.39%).
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
7/10
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
8/10
Spot 80,937 +4.39% (coingecko 2026-09-19) vs Fri 77,533 SEC exemption is a COIN/TSV story, not an ETF inflow
Invalidation: Weekly close below $70k or a fresh $300m+ BTC-ETF outflow day.

TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.

undefined · 20d illustrative range
undefined illustrative 20-day price cone from 80937: 5th pct 70948.62, median 80689.79, 95th pct 91768.42 (vol 27.76% annualised)undefined · 20d illustrative range69699.4377472.1685244.8893017.61Illustrative · vol 27.76% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
ETH-USD  HOLD 🔥 17-issue streak
Ethereum
5.6/10 Conviction
$2623.26
▲ +5.55%
Keep ETH on HOLD — a weekend follow-through is not an inflow, and ETH-USD BUYs still 400 at PM.
No L2 TVL print — score the tape.ETH 2,623 follows BTC, still no inflow.No fresh ETH-ETF print after Sep 17 leak.BTC repaired; ETH is still the laggard.2,623 vs 2,485 Friday (+5.55%).
Fundamentals
5/10
Sentiment / flow
6/10
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
7/10
Spot 2,623 +5.55% (coingecko 2026-09-19) vs Fri 2,485 No fresh ETH-ETF print after Sep 17’s −$39.3m
Invalidation: Weekly close below $2,100 or another $200m+ ETH ETF outflow day.

TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.

undefined · 20d illustrative range
undefined illustrative 20-day price cone from 2623.26: 5th pct 2177.94, median 2607.59, 95th pct 3122 (vol 38.85% annualised)undefined · 20d illustrative range2121.32473.752826.193178.64Illustrative · vol 38.85% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 2 minOwn the precious sleeve, not crude: SLV 59.93 is the add while USO 153.82 vs 161.86 is a REDUCE — do not re-BUY CPER after yesterday’s copper print.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Own the precious sleeve, not crude: SLV 59.93 is the add while USO 153.82 vs 161.86 is a REDUCE — do not re-BUY CPER after yesterday’s copper print.
If WTI stays offered under $102 while the 10-year holds 5% and gold stays bid above $4,400, expect precious metals to keep diverging from the fading crude…
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
SLV iShares Silver Trust 7 +5.44%
USO United States Oil Fund 5.4 -4.97%
iShares Silver Trust  PRECIOUS METAL BUY
SLV
7/10 Conviction
$59.93
▲ +5.44%
Over the next week treat SLV as the real-rate hedge — add only if SI=F holds ≥$64 while the 10-year stays near 5%.
Silver is industrial + monetary; SI=F 66.5SLV 59.93 vs 56.84 Sep 14 (+5.4%).Gold $4,425 +1.7%; real-rate hedge still bPrecious sleeve while 10y sits at 5%.SI=F 66.56 vs 65.32 (+1.9%); SLV reclaim.
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
7/10
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
8/10
GC=F 4,424.90 +1.68% (yahoo 2026-09-18) SI=F 66.556 vs 65.315 (+1.90%) SLV 59.93 vs 56.84 Sep 14
Invalidation: SI=F daily close back through $62.

TradingView's price for SLV. It is not the last print in this letter.

undefined · 20d illustrative range
undefined illustrative 20-day price cone from 59.93: 5th pct 47.38, median 59.37, 95th pct 74.4 (vol 48.7% annualised)undefined · 20d illustrative range45.7655.8565.9376.02Illustrative · vol 48.7% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
United States Oil Fund  ENERGY REDUCE
USO
5.4/10 Conviction
$153.82
▼ -4.97%
Fade the crude shock — REDUCE USO while WTI stays offered under $102 and the Hormuz premium keeps unwinding.
WTI $100.30 still above $100.USO 153.82 vs 161.86 Sep 15 (−5.0%).China/Saudi Houthi-ask paused the geo bid.Shock premium fading; do not add crude.CL=F 100.30 vs 101.10 Thu (−0.79%).
Fundamentals
5/10
Sentiment / flow
5/10
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
CL=F 100.30 −0.79% (yahoo 2026-09-18) USO 153.82 vs 161.86 Sep 15 Reuters: oil reversed earlier gains but stayed >$100
Invalidation: WTI daily close back through $105.

TradingView's price for USO. It is not the last print in this letter.

undefined · 20d illustrative range
undefined illustrative 20-day price cone from 153.82: 5th pct 119.53, median 152.17, 95th pct 193.72 (vol 52.1% annualised)undefined · 20d illustrative range115.08142.78170.47198.17Illustrative · vol 52.1% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
GeneralTop 5 Risks Right Now 1 min#1 September FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥3.75–4.00%)
TOP 5 RISKS RIGHT NOW
#RiskProbability Impact Trend
1September FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥3.75–4.00%)=HighHighStable
2USD/JPY air-pocket morphs into disorderly MoF/BoJ policy response=MediumHighEscalating
3Hormuz / East-West shutdown turns oil into a growth shock=MediumHighFading
4Energy CPI second-round into the October print=MediumHighStable
5Post-witching concentration leaves the index hanging on SOXNEWMediumMediumNew
Watch: October CPI
GeneralWhat's Coming Up 1 min2026-09-28 — BFRI Ameluz PDUFA
WHAT'S COMING UP
2026-09-28 BFRI Ameluz PDUFA · penny_plays
2026-10-07 Sep 15–16 FOMC minutes · risk_top5
2026-10-15 US October CPI / energy second-round · risk_top5
2026-10-28 FOMC decision (Oct 27–28 meeting) · risk_top5
2027-01-04 NXT.L interim dividend 98p · eu_equity_ideas
Stocks
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 10 min30d hit rate 73%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech US
+2.02%
Named holdings. 132 smaller positions (30.62%) are off this picture.
Portfolio allocation: Cash 55.95%, GLD 7.37%, BTC-USD 7.03%, ETH-USD 5.81%, TTE.PA 5.41%, USO 5.38%, ASML.AS 4.81%, XOM 4.23%, DBC 4.01%Cash55.95%GLD7.37%BTC-USD7.03%ETH-USD5.81%TTE.PA5.41%USO5.38%ASML.AS4.81%XOM4.23%DBC4.01%
Tech US
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$102023.54
Cash
$10187.10
P&L
$2023.54 (+2.02%)
Realized P&L
$-3181.65
TWR
+1.79%
Sharpe
0.31
Max DD
-2.39%
Sortino
0.79
Calmar
4.59
Ann. return
+10.99%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions90%
Cash10%
Today's Moves
ActionTickerQtyStatus
BuyLRCX0.7366dispatched
BuyCOIN1.09dispatched
SellDUOL1.83pending
Current Holdings
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93$9098.56+6.8%
XOM ×129$21067.53+7.0%
UNH ×8.49$3200.86-11.5%
INTC ×14.08$1529.16-75.3%
MSFT ×11.91$5882.15+21.3%
SBUX ×11.63$1114.14-10.1%
CBRE ×8.29$1156.65-6.7%
AMZN ×5.95$1510.26-6.1%
+49 more holdings
Track Record 30 On Track · 17 Lagging · 11 Stopped Out
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
ABNB (2026-09-01)6.5/10+2.6%On Track
ADBE (2026-09-07)6.5/10-3.3%Lagging
ADI (2026-08-21)8/10-2.4%Lagging
ALGT (2026-09-14)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
AMAT (2026-08-13)7.5/10+0.0%On Track
AMD (2026-08-31)6.5/10+7.3%On Track
AMZN (2026-08-29)7/10-7.2%Lagging
APH (2026-09-05)7.5/10-6.2%Lagging
AVGO (2026-08-22)7/10-7.9%Lagging
COP (2026-09-14)7.5/10+0.0%On Track
CRM (2026-09-08)7/10+1.4%On Track
CRWD (2026-08-27)8/10+16.0%On Track
CSCO (2026-08-12)7.5/10-9.1%Stopped Out
CVX (2026-09-08)7/10+9.5%On Track
DELL (2026-09-03)7.5/10+8.8%On Track
DUOL (2026-09-06)7.5/10-8.1%Stopped Out
ESI (2026-09-13)6.8/10+0.0%On Track
ESTC (2026-08-29)8/10-14.8%Stopped Out
FIVE (2026-09-06)7.5/10-6.4%Lagging
FRO (2026-09-08)7/10+27.6%On Track
GAP (2026-08-30)7/10-13.0%Stopped Out
GLW (2026-09-09)6.8/10+0.0%On Track
HAL (2026-09-03)6.5/10-10.6%Stopped Out
HD (2026-08-19)8/10-9.6%Stopped Out
HOOD (2026-09-04)7/10-11.4%Stopped Out
INTU (2026-08-26)7/10+0.0%On Track
IREN (2026-09-16)6/10+0.0%On Track
JEF (2026-09-10)6.3/10+0.0%On Track
JPM (2026-09-08)6.5/10-1.7%Lagging
LHX (2026-09-15)6/10+1.7%On Track
LITE (2026-09-17)7/10+1.3%On Track
LLY (2026-09-15)7.1/10-3.4%Lagging
LMT (2026-09-15)6.6/10+0.0%On Track
MRK (2026-08-20)7/10-5.5%Lagging
MRVL (2026-08-22)8/10+118.6%On Track
MU (2026-08-15)7.5/10-1.3%Lagging
NAT (2026-08-31)7/10+15.9%On Track
NVDA (2026-08-28)7.5/10-1.8%Lagging
OI (2026-08-24)7/10-11.7%Stopped Out
ORCL (2026-09-11)7.2/10-13.6%Stopped Out
PSX (2026-09-07)7/10+3.9%On Track
QCOM (2026-09-09)7/10+0.0%On Track
RDDT (2026-08-18)7.5/10-8.0%Stopped Out
ROST (2026-08-23)8/10-3.2%Lagging
RTX (2026-09-05)7.5/10-2.6%Lagging
SHEL (2026-08-30)6.5/10+8.8%On Track
SLB (2026-09-01)7/10-9.8%Stopped Out
SNOW (2026-09-04)7.5/10-6.7%Lagging
TGT (2026-08-22)7/10-4.0%Lagging
V (2026-08-25)7/10-1.8%Lagging
VLO (2026-09-02)7/10+13.0%On Track
VRTX (2026-09-13)6.9/10+0.0%On Track
WMT (2026-08-20)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
XOM (2026-08-18)7.5/10+10.8%On Track
HAE (2026-09-18)6.8/10+0.7%On Track
JBHT (2026-09-18)6.5/10-1.1%Lagging
LRCX (2026-09-19)7.4/10+0.0%On Track
COIN (2026-09-19)7.4/10+0.0%On Track
Euro Only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$121086.29
Cash
$17638.87
P&L
$21086.29 (+21.09%)
Realized P&L
$-42835.98
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
ActionTickerQtyStatus
BuyORSTED.CO19.69dispatched
Current Holdings
⚠ All marks estimated (PM fallback to average cost) — do not read pnl as a live reval.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702$23967.39—
TTE.PA ×364$26944.15—
UNA.AS ×48.5$2832.95—
RR.L ×101$1460.08—
VIE.PA ×48.5$1430.88—
GLE.PA ×17.29$1402.26—
MNDI.L ×158$1402.26—
NWG.L ×191$1346.17—
+41 more holdings
Track Record 47 On Track · 2 Lagging
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
ABN.AS (2026-08-24)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
ADYEN.AS (2026-09-03)7/10+0.0%On Track
AIR.PA (2026-09-08)7/10+0.0%On Track
ALV.DE (2026-08-29)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
ASML.AS (2026-08-30)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
BAB.L (2026-09-16)7.3/10+0.0%On Track
BAVA.CO (2026-08-23)7/10+0.0%On Track
BP.L (2026-09-12)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
DEME.BR (2026-08-27)7/10+0.0%On Track
DTE.DE (2026-09-04)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
ENI.MI (2026-09-02)7/10+0.0%On Track
ENR.DE (2026-09-01)7/10+0.0%On Track
EOAN.DE (2026-08-27)7/10+0.0%On Track
EUROB.AT (2026-09-07)7/10+0.0%On Track
EVD.DE (2026-08-22)7/10+0.0%On Track
EXENS.PA (2026-09-17)7.5/10+4.0%On Track
FGR.PA (2026-08-28)6/10+0.0%On Track
FLS.CO (2026-08-21)6/10+0.0%On Track
GSK.L (2026-09-15)7/10+0.0%On Track
INW.MI (2026-08-26)7/10+0.0%On Track
ISP.MI (2026-09-11)6.7/10+0.0%On Track
IVG.MI (2026-09-05)7.5/10+0.0%On Track
KGX.DE (2026-09-09)7/10+0.0%On Track
KIE.L (2026-09-15)7/10+0.0%On Track
LR.PA (2026-08-31)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
MSLH.L (2026-08-11)6/10+0.0%On Track
MT.AS (2026-09-06)7/10+0.0%On Track
NDX1.DE (2026-09-08)6.8/10+0.0%On Track
NOVN.SW (2026-09-13)6.2/10+0.0%On Track
NSIS-B.CO (2026-08-21)7/10+0.0%On Track
PUB.PA (2026-09-04)7/10+0.0%On Track
REP.MC (2026-09-02)7/10+0.0%On Track
RIO.L (2026-09-10)7/10+0.0%On Track
RWE.DE (2026-09-03)7/10+0.0%On Track
SAN.MC (2026-09-08)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
SAP.DE (2026-08-30)7/10+0.0%On Track
SHEL.L (2026-08-22)6/10+1.2%On Track
SHL.DE (2026-08-24)7/10+0.0%On Track
SIE.DE (2026-08-29)7/10+0.0%On Track
SOI.PA (2026-09-17)6.8/10-0.5%Lagging
SU.PA (2026-08-31)7/10+0.0%On Track
TEF.MC (2026-09-07)7/10+0.0%On Track
TKA.DE (2026-09-06)7.5/10+0.0%On Track
TTE.PA (2026-09-01)7/10-1.9%Lagging
TTE.PA (2026-09-14)7.3/10+0.0%On Track
VOD.L (2026-09-05)7/10+0.0%On Track
DRX.L (2026-09-18)7/10+0.0%On Track
NXT.L (2026-09-18)7.3/10+0.0%On Track
ORSTED.CO (2026-09-19)6.8/10+0.0%On Track
Penny Plays
Performance
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ All marks estimated (PM fallback to average cost) — do not read pnl as a live reval.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578$3755.55—
PYPD ×1564$6940.50—
STXS ×2738$3557.21—
Track Record 4 On Track
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
BFRI (2026-09-09)5/10+0.0%On Track
INO (2026-08-24)4.5/10+0.0%On Track
OTLK (2026-09-09)4/10+0.0%On Track
PYPD (2026-08-19)6.5/10+6.1%On Track
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$35000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
ActionTickerQtyStatus
HoldGLD——
Current Holdings
⚠ All marks estimated (PM fallback to average cost) — do not read pnl as a live reval.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65$25000.00—
IEF ×108$10000.00—
DBC ×654$20000.00—
SPLV ×132$10000.00—
Trend Follow
Performance
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$75717.93
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
ActionTickerQtyStatus
HoldSMH——
SellXBI——
SellXLB——
Current Holdings
⚠ All marks estimated (PM fallback to average cost) — do not read pnl as a live reval.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86$5539.52—
SMH ×5.03$2990.61—
XLV ×30.27$5207.77—
XBI ×32$5207.77—
XLB ×93.53$4954.78—
Track Record 5 On Track · 5 Lagging
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
ITA (2026-08-21)4/10-5.8%Lagging
QQQ (2026-09-07)3/10+0.0%On Track
SMH (2026-09-09)4.5/10+0.0%On Track
XBI (2026-08-23)8/10-1.4%Lagging
XLB (2026-08-23)8/10-3.1%Lagging
XLE (2026-08-23)8/10+2.6%On Track
XLF (2026-09-08)6/10+0.0%On Track
XLK (2026-09-08)6/10+0.0%On Track
XLRE (2026-08-20)6.5/10-2.6%Lagging
XLV (2026-08-23)8/10-4.3%Lagging
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$26717.65
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
ActionTickerQtyStatus
BuySLV9.1dispatched
Current Holdings
⚠ All marks estimated (PM fallback to average cost) — do not read pnl as a live reval.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
USO ×206$26795.83—
GLD ×30.1$11738.20—
CPER ×150$5929.12—
SLV ×93.58$5545.24—
PPLT ×66.63$1111.38—
BNO ×35.14$1850.57—
URA ×23.16$1066.93—
UGA ×26.78$3377.87—
+11 more holdings
Track Record 20 On Track · 4 Lagging
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
BNO (2026-09-07)7/10+0.0%On Track
CANE (2026-09-06)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
COPX (2026-09-08)7/10+0.0%On Track
CORN (2026-08-31)7/10+1.1%On Track
CPER (2026-09-09)7/10+0.0%On Track
GDX (2026-09-04)7/10+0.0%On Track
GLD (2026-08-30)5/10-0.4%Lagging
LIT (2026-08-24)6.5/10-3.7%Lagging
PALL (2026-08-30)4/10+2.1%On Track
PPLT (2026-09-05)7/10+0.0%On Track
SIL (2026-09-04)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
SLV (2026-09-01)6.5/10+2.5%On Track
SLX (2026-09-07)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
SOYB (2026-08-30)6.5/10+2.1%On Track
UGA (2026-09-06)7/10+0.0%On Track
UNG (2026-09-03)6.5/10-0.9%Lagging
UNG (2026-09-15)6.9/10+0.0%On Track
URA (2026-09-05)7/10+0.0%On Track
USO (2026-09-09)6.3/10+0.0%On Track
USO (2026-09-15)7.2/10+0.0%On Track
WEAT (2026-08-30)7.5/10-3.1%Lagging
WEAT (2026-09-17)6.8/10+0.0%On Track
CPER (2026-09-18)6.8/10+0.0%On Track
SLV (2026-09-19)7/10+0.0%On Track
Crypto
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$32370.73
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
ActionTickerQtyStatus
HoldBTC-USD——
HoldETH-USD——
Current Holdings
⚠ All marks estimated (PM fallback to average cost) — do not read pnl as a live reval.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5510$35015.45—
ETH-USD ×14.91$28949.67—
SOL-USD ×26.81$2795.91—
XRP-USD ×628$868.24—
Track Record 3 On Track · 3 Lagging
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
BTC (2026-08-11)6/10+0.0%On Track
BTC-USD (2026-09-09)7/10-1.2%Lagging
ETH (2026-08-11)5/10+0.0%On Track
ETH-USD (2026-09-09)5.8/10-0.3%Lagging
SOL-USD (2026-08-30)6.5/10-1.4%Lagging
XRP-USD (2026-08-29)6/10+0.7%On Track
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +73.00%
Glossary
VIX term structure
VIX term structure is the shape of implied volatility across maturities — typically VIX9D (9-day), VIX (30-day), and VIX3M (3-month).
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures

General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.

Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.

Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.

Morning Alpha • Generated Sat, 19 Sep 2026 07:32:00 GMT • info@gmc-works.com