UST 3y 4.99 UST 10y (FRED 23 Sep) 5.11 UST 30y 5.47 Eff. fed funds 3.88 unchUSD broad (weekly 11 Sep) 118.21 VIX spot (eodhd) 14.87 -0.80
MORNING ALPHA

Daily Financial Newsletter

Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 09:25:00 · archived issue
EN FR
Read the Full Letter Here Support Morning Alpha
⚠ Data quality : DEGRADED · 13 notes
⚠ Data quality: DEGRADED
yesterday_retrospective — GET /movers?index=SPX losers again printed close=0 / −100% (AMD/CVX/MRNA); movers[] omitted. Shanghai/KOSPI closed Mid-Autumn. Sector % from Yahoo daily. Nikkei official 66,364 vs aggregator 66,307.
market_pulse — SPX analytics snapshot still shows close 7,704.13 (Thu) on date 2026-09-25; copied breadth/ATH and used live eodhd 7,743.41 for the tape. VIXCLS FRED 14.21 is 22 Sep; spot VIX 14.87. DGS10 FRED 5.11 (23 Sep) vs TNX 5.184. DTWEXBGS weekly 118.21 on 11 Sep. Squawk 401.
concept_spotlight — Saturday edition — gold/copper ratio from the catalog; no live price in the body.
us_equity_ideas — Screener-first (311 US). SNPS screen score 1 (downtrend_aligned) but HSBC $700 upgrade is the 48h catalyst. JCI not in screen — Wells Fargo $186 initiate. /news missed both upgrades. Widened off DG/COST/SNDK/AAPL/META/ARHS. Quiver 13F 404 / congress 403.
eu_equity_ideas — eu_fundamentals_gap — ATE.PA and TTE.PA /fundamentals empty. EU screen 27 names (SAN.MC/SHEL.L lead). Widened off KCR.HE/SAN.MC/TUI1.DE/SAVE.ST/GLE.PA. TTE.PA is a known PM 400 ticker.
penny_plays — screener unavailable or empty for category=penny — fell back to web search; penny universe may not be seeded yet. Publish zero ideas. Did not recycle BFRI (sBCC approved 14 Sep).
forex_rebalancing — squawk-alert feed unavailable (401 missing X-Account-Key) — fell back to central-bank web search. EUR crosses from Yahoo after aggregator 429. /predictions Manifold probability null — October hike ~75% from CME FedWatch web.
commodities_outlook — Did not re-BUY SLV/USO/CPER/WEAT/CORN/UNG. COT empty. JO/NIB/BAL prints stale 2023-07-21 — skipped. Yahoo used for % and sparklines. Checked URA/PPLT/LIT/SOYB; no 48h catalyst that beat UNG FM / Hormuz / copper tightness.
crypto_landscape — 24 Sep ETF prints from SoSoValue via BingX/CoinNess/CryptoSlate, not aggregator. BTC-USD/ETH-USD remain known PM 400s — HOLD, no re-BUY. No third asset (anti-repetition vs XRP).
trend_follow — Aggregator /price/history 429 after rate-limit; Yahoo 1y used for sma50/sma200. 6/18 above sma50. At 5-name cap — skip XLK/QQQ BUY even though rules passed. XLB/XBI EXIT skip restack of Sep 14 PENDING SELL. SMH PENDING SELL leftover skipped — tape is HOLD.
risk_top5 — GET /predictions returned Manifold items with probability null — October hike odds ~75% from CME FedWatch web. Forced-diversity slot is MOVE/credit (new category vs Friday).
risk_cover_playbook — Put/call omitted (no Cboe print). VIX9D empty. Stock-bond 20d corr omitted (Yahoo tails not stored). MOVE from Yahoo 96 after Thu 104.58. Index breadth from analytics session that still prices Thursday’s 7,704 close.
portfolio_reality_check — File PORTFOLIO_ID_TECH_US used. SNPS 0.4594 @ 425.76 FILLED; JCI 1.3022 @ 150.20 FILLED; ATE.PA 4.3527 @ EUR 76.25 FILLED; TTE.PA 4.1492 @ EUR 79.99 FILLED. Euro/Penny/AF/Trend/Commodities/Crypto /positions all_prices_estimated (JCI mark flipped estimated post-fill). Did not re-BUY ACN/TLN/LRCX/COIN/HAE/JBHT/LITE/IREN/ORSTED/DRX/NXT/EXENS/SOI/GLE/BEZ/META/ARHS/SNDK/AAPL/SAN.MC/DG/COST/KCR.HE/CPER/WEAT/SLV/CORN/UNG/BTC/ETH. HAL/AMZN/SLB/ORCL/ESTC/GAP/HD/RDDT/HOOD/OI/CSCO/UNH/INTC/ADBE/ABNB/CRM/FIVE pending SELLs skipped. XLB/XBI/SMH TF PENDING SELLs skipped. Wednesday AF DBC/GLD SELL + TLT/IEF/SPLV BUY left PENDING — not restacked (book already at inflationary weights). INTC −72% is cost-basis outlier — not stop-lossed.
General
GeneralThe Bottom Line 1 minOil’s −2.3% Hormuz dip let SPX close 7,743 but TNX 5.18% and ~75% October hike odds keep the tape mixed.
THE BOTTOM LINE
RISK-ON=
Oil’s −2.3% Hormuz dip let SPX close 7,743 but TNX 5.18% and ~75% October hike odds keep the tape mixed.
High-yield OAS 2.8 bp
150 bp800 bp
Under 350 bp scores +1. Wider spreads score 0, then −1, then −2.
S&P shares above the 200-day 59.1%
0%100%
Above 65% scores +1. 40–65% scores 0. Under 40% scores −1.
Today's Top Picks
SMH
7.5/10
ATE.PA
7.3/10
SNPS
7/10
JCI
7/10
UNG
7/10
Biggest Risk
October FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥4.00–4.25%)
Probability: High • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $102679.70
Blended P&L: +2.68% • 30d Hit Rate: +64.00%
1 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 105 of 164 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 10.6%, average loss -5.7%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 3 minTNX 5.184% and DFF 3.88% still price a tightening Fed, but VIX 14.87/−5.1% and HY OAS 2.80% (24 Sep) eased as WTI −2.33%; SPY−RSP Friday was only +14 bp.
MARKET PULSE
SPX is 0.85% under the 7,810 ATH after Friday’s +0.51% to 7,743; VIX 14.87 vs VIX3M 17.93 (0.83 contango) while TNX prints 5.184% and October hike odds stay ~75%.
Mixed tape Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
AITNX 5.184% and DFF 3.88% still price a tightening Fed, but VIX 14.87/−5.1% and HY OAS 2.80% (24 Sep) eased as WTI −2.33%; SPY−RSP Friday was only +14 bp.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data7,743.41
yday 7,704.13
▲ +0.51%
NASDAQ Data27,068.72
yday 26,939.37
▲ +0.48%
Dow Jones Data51,828.62
yday 51,349.98
▲ +0.93%
Russell 2K Data2,837.55
yday 2,835.57
▲ +0.07%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data4,321.20
yday 4,312.50
▲ +0.54%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data92.41
yday 93.08
▼ -2.33%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data83,884.00
yday 84,102.00
▼ -0.26%
Ethereum Data2,685.25
yday 2,674.09
▲ +0.42%
Rates
10Y Yield Data5.18
yday 5.16
▲ +0.43%
UST 10y (FRED 23 Sep) Data5.11
yday 4.96
—
UST 30y Data5.47
yday 5.40
—
Eff. fed funds Data3.88
yday 3.88
unch
10Y-2Y spread Data0.31 pctcalm
Credit
HY OAS Data2.80
yday 2.73
—
IG OAS Data0.79 pctcalm
HY–IG spread differential Data2.01 pctcalm
Volatility
VIX Data14.87
yday 15.67
▼ -5.11%
VIX spot (eodhd) Data14.87
yday 15.67
-0.80
VIX/VIX3M term structure Data0.83 ratio
yday 0.85 ratio
calm
MOVE index Data96.00 indexwatch
Dollar & FX
EUR/USD Data1.14
yday 1.14
0.00%
USD broad (weekly 11 Sep) Data118.21
yday 118.21
—
wk
Breadth
SPY−RSP 5d Data+3.04pp
yday +0.92pp
—
SPY−RSP 21d Data+5.15pp
yday +2.66pp
—
% from 52w Data-0.85%
yday -0.58%
—
% of S&P 500 above SMA200 Data59.13 pctcalm
SPY 20d vs equal-weight (RSP) Data0.14 pctcalm
Liquidity
Initial jobless claims Data197,000.00 claimscalm
SOFR–DFF spread Data0.00 pct
yday -0.01 pct
calm
Cross-asset
Gold/Copper ratio (GLD/CPER) Data9.69 ratiocalm
Other
UST 3y Data4.99
yday 4.97
—
Cover checks
VIX Data14.87 / 25.00
yday 15.67
Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread Data0.31 / -0.20
yday 0.26 / -0.20
Not Triggered
HY OAS Data2.80 / 5.00
yday 2.73
Not Triggered
SPX drawdown from ATH Data-0.85 / -10.00
yday -1.36 / -10.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AIOil’s Friday dip does not flip the mix: TNX 5.184%, hike odds ~75%, copper still above its 50-day and HY OAS a tight 2.80. Own gold + broad commodities; keep long duration at 0.
DataHedge instruments : GLD, TLT, SH, VIXY · Target cash 15%
Sleeve TickerTarget Action
Gold AIGLD25%Hold
Long bonds AITLT0%Exit
Intermediate bonds AIIEF10%Hold
Commodities AIDBC20%Hold
Defensive equity AISPLV10%Hold
Crash hedge AISH0%Exit
Cash AI—35%Hold
If triggered today — do this now AI
• Trim high-beta AI/semis (SMH/XLK) rather than the whole book
• Add the standing Anti-Fragile gold/commodity weights; do not chase VIXY
AI0/4 hard triggers fired and 1 of 11 internals is watch (MOVE). Equities closed green on oil relief, but the 5.18% 10-year and ~75% October hike odds keep the Gave mix on inflationary_boom weights — gold 25 / DBC 20 / TLT 0.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 2 minFriday’s S&P 500 closed 7,743.41 (+0.51%) and the Dow 51,828.62 (+0.93%) as WTI fell 2.3% on a U.S.–Iran Hormuz reopening offer, even as the 10-year stuck at 5.18% and UMich 1y inflation ex…
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Friday’s S&P 500 closed 7,743.41 (+0.51%) and the Dow 51,828.62 (+0.93%) as WTI fell 2.3% on a U.S.–Iran Hormuz reopening offer, even as the 10-year stuck at 5.18% and UMich 1y inflation expectations printed 4.6%.
How Yesterday Unfolded
Asia  Tokyo led: Nikkei 66,364.20 (+1.30%) on a fifth up-day as banks chased 28 Sep dividend rights and AI hardware bounced once oil cooled; Hang Seng closed 24,510.09 (−1.01%) on U.S. hike odds. Shanghai and KOSPI were shut for Mid-Autumn.
Europe  Europe was a grind, not a panic: Stoxx 600 638.65 (+0.35%), DAX 25,408.64 (+0.56%), FTSE 10,695.30 (+0.14%), CAC 8,077.80 (−0.04%) as oil’s retreat offset the still-5%+ U.S. long bond.
US  U.S. opened on cheaper crude and closed green: S&P 500 7,743.41 (+0.51%), Nasdaq 27,068.72 (+0.48%), Dow +478 pts. VIX fell to 14.87 (−5.1%). The 10-year still printed 5.184% and final UMich sentiment 48.1 with 4.6% 1y inflation expectations.
Capital Rotation
Energy (XLE −0.89%) → Industrials/Tech (XLI +0.95%, XLK +0.80%) · XLE −0.89% vs XLI +0.95% and XLK +0.80% on Friday; WTI −2.33% to $92.41.
Hormuz-diplomacy oil relief pulled the war premium out of energy and back into duration-sensitive cyclicals and semiconductors.
Communication services (XLC −0.90%) → Healthcare (XLV +0.49%) · XLC −0.90% vs XLV +0.49% and XLF +0.57%.
After a Mag-7/Muse week, Friday’s bid broadened into defensives/financials rather than adding to communication beta.
Key Drivers
Iran 7-day Hormuz reopening offer — Tehran floated a phased reopening of the Strait in exchange for lifting the U.S. blockade; WTI settled $92.41 (−2.33%) and Brent ~$104.
UMich final September sentiment / inflation expectations — Final sentiment 48.1 (from 51.7 in August); 1y inflation expectations 4.6% (highest since June) and long-run 3.4%.
10-year still at a 2007-area high — TNX closed 5.184% (30y 5.47% FRED 24 Sep). The equity bounce was an oil-relief rally, not a duration rally.
Bridge to Today
Monday’s first test is whether Hormuz diplomacy keeps WTI sub-$95 into the 28 Oct FOMC, or whether a weekend breakdown puts the 5.18% 10-year bid back in charge.
GeneralConcept of the Day 1 minWhat the gold/copper ratio is actually measuring
CONCEPT OF THE DAY
What the gold/copper ratio is actually measuring
Why today : Friday’s GLD/CPER print is 9.69 after oil’s −2.3% diplomacy dip — the ratio is the cleanest single read on whether this is still an inflationary boom or a growth scare.
The gold/copper ratio divides a fear/monetary metal by a growth metal. Gold bids when real yields, the dollar, or geopolitics scare investors; copper bids when factories, grids and China inventories need the metal. A rising ratio means markets are paying more for insurance than for growth; a falling ratio is the opposite. It is not a trading signal by itself — it is a cross-check on whether the bond/oil tape is telling a recession story or an inflation-with-growth story. When this letter’s cover playbook quotes the ratio, read it as ‘are we in a disorder hedge or a cycle hedge?’ Use it to sanity-check a Gave quadrant, not to replace the 10-year.
Stocks
Ideas board
TickerRegionCall Conv. Price1dType
SNPSSynopsys, Inc. USBUY7 425.76+0.20% Growth
JCIJohnson Controls International plc USBUY7 150.2+3.33% Growth
ATE.PAAlten SA EUBUY7.3 76.25+7.70% Recovery
TTE.PATotalEnergies SE EUBUY6.7 79.99-1.31% Commodity
StocksUS Equity Ideas 2 minSNPS BUY · JCI BUY
US EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
SNPSNEW Synopsys, Inc. 7 +0.20%
JCINEW Johnson Controls International plc 7 +3.33%
SNPS  GROWTH BUYNEW
Synopsys, Inc. • Information Technology
7/10 Conviction
$425.76
▲ +0.20%
Over the next 1–2 months expect the HSBC $700 / 28% EPS-growth call to keep the bid if the TSMC agentic-AI IP royalty story survives the 5.18% 10-year.
HSBC $700PE 53xRSI 70 screen+0.2% Fri
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
4/10
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
8/10
Technicals
8/10
52-week range
25 Sep: HSBC Frank Lee upgraded SNPS Hold→Buy and raised PT $490→$700 (28% above ~$546 consensus) This week: agentic-AI partnership with TSMC; 17 upward EPS revisions in 30 days
Mkt Cap
$79.2B
P/E
53.0
Target
$700.00
Invalidation: HSBC-style $700 thesis dies if FY27 EPS is cut or $400 fails.

TradingView's price for SNPS. It is not the last print in this letter.

SNPS · 20d illustrative range
SNPS illustrative 20-day price cone from 425.76: 5th pct 359.02, median 423.61, 95th pct 499.83 (vol 35.7% annualised)SNPS · 20d illustrative range350.57403.14455.71508.28Illustrative · vol 35.7% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
JCI  GROWTH BUYNEW
Johnson Controls International plc • Industrials
7/10 Conviction
$150.20
▲ +3.33%
Over the next quarter expect the Wells Fargo $186 initiation to keep data-center cooling orders in the multiple if backlog converts and the 5% 10-year does not stall capex.
WF $186ROE 25%+3.3% Fri
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
4/10
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
8/10
Technicals
8/10
24 Sep: Wells Fargo initiated Overweight with a $186 PT (Joe O'Dea) — record backlog / data-center orders / margin self-help Alloy Enterprises cooling acquisition slated to close fiscal Q3 2026
Mkt Cap
$140.5B
P/E
29.9
Target
$186.00
Invalidation: A data-center order cut or a miss vs the $186 backlog story.

TradingView's price for JCI. It is not the last print in this letter.

JCI · 20d illustrative range
JCI illustrative 20-day price cone from 150.2: 5th pct 137.94, median 150.01, 95th pct 163.12 (vol 18.09% annualised)JCI · 20d illustrative range136.24145.71155.17164.64Illustrative · vol 18.09% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 2 minATE.PA BUY · TTE.PA BUY
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
ATE.PANEW Alten SA 7.3 +7.70%
TTE.PANEW TotalEnergies SE 6.7 -1.31%
ATE.PA  RECOVERY BUYNEW
Alten SA • Information Technology
7.3/10 Conviction
$76.25
▲ +7.70%
Over the next month expect the CIC €100 / Bernstein €141 pair to keep the re-rating if H2 organic growth holds after Friday’s +7.7% thrust.
CIC €100+7.7% Frieu_fundamentals_gap
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
7/10
25 Sep: CIC Market Solutions raised PT €80→€100, Buy maintained; Bernstein €140→€141 Outperform H1 2026: return to organic growth, margin and FCF up, FY outlook raised — stock led the SBF 120 (+4% into €73.75 midday, closed €76.25)
Target
$100.00
Invalidation: Next print shows organic growth back below zero.

TradingView's price for ATE.PA. It is not the last print in this letter.

ATE.PA · 20d illustrative range
ATE.PA illustrative 20-day price cone from 76.25: 5th pct 58.13, median 75.31, 95th pct 97.56 (vol 55.87% annualised)ATE.PA · 20d illustrative range55.7670.4885.2199.93Illustrative · vol 55.87% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
TTE.PA  COMMODITY BUYNEW
TotalEnergies SE • Energy
6.7/10 Conviction
$79.99
▼ -1.31%
Over the next 1–2 months expect HSBC’s Buy (with BP) to support TTE if Brent holds >$95 even after Friday’s Hormuz-offer dip.
HSBC Buy−1.3% Frieu_fundamentals_gap
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
25 Sep: HSBC upgraded TTE Hold→Buy on higher oil/gas/refining assumptions Same note lifted BP to 640p; TTE is the EUR-listed sleeve of that energy-revision
Invalidation: Brent sustains a close back through $90 on a confirmed Hormuz reopen.

TradingView's price for TTE.PA. It is not the last print in this letter.

TTE.PA · 20d illustrative range
TTE.PA illustrative 20-day price cone from 79.99: 5th pct 74.34, median 79.91, 95th pct 85.9 (vol 15.59% annualised)TTE.PA · 20d illustrative range73.6577.9682.2886.59Illustrative · vol 15.59% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 4 minSemis still clear the 50/200/RS tests (SMH RS +5.8%) but the book is at the 5-name cap — HOLD SMH/XLE/XLV; XBI/XLB remain EXIT and are not restacked.
TREND FOLLOW
Semis still clear the 50/200/RS tests (SMH RS +5.8%) but the book is at the 5-name cap — HOLD SMH/XLE/XLV; XBI/XLB remain EXIT and are not restacked.
6 of 18 universe names close above their 50-day (QQQ, XLK, XLE, XLV, XLC, SMH) — same narrow tape as Friday.
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF 7.5 +1.01%
XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR 6 -0.89%
XLV Health Care Select Sector SPDR 6 +0.49%
XBI SPDR S&P Biotech ETF 4 -0.65%
XLB Materials Select Sector SPDR 4 +0.24%
SMH  INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY HOLD 🔥 41-issue streak
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
7.5/10 Conviction
$606.56
▲ +1.01%
Over the next 2–4 weeks stay long semis only while SMH holds the 50-day; do not add at the 5-name cap.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sSMH +1.01% Fri; still 50>200 with RS +5.8%Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sPx 606.56 vs 50d 565.8906 / 200d 493.2817;
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
8/10
SMH +1.01% Fri; still 50>200 with RS +5.8% vs SPY Skip XLK/QQQ BUY — same sleeve, cap full
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$565.89).

TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.

SMH · 20d illustrative range
SMH illustrative 20-day price cone from 606.56: 5th pct 539.51, median 605.09, 95th pct 678.64 (vol 24.76% annualised)SMH · 20d illustrative range531.16583.1635.05686.99Illustrative · vol 24.76% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Sources: Yahoo — SMH
XLE  ENERGY HOLD 🔥 41-issue streak
Energy Select Sector SPDR
6/10 Conviction
$62.04
▼ -0.89%
Over the next 2–4 weeks hold energy beta only above the 50-day; Friday’s oil dip knocked RS vs SPY back through zero.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sWTI −2.33% Friday on the Hormuz offerRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sPx 62.04 vs 50d 61.7558 / 200d 56.1419; RS
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
6/10
WTI −2.33% Friday on the Hormuz offer Price still 50>200 but RS −0.4%
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$61.76).

TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.

XLE · 20d illustrative range
XLE illustrative 20-day price cone from 62.04: 5th pct 54.52, median 61.86, 95th pct 70.18 (vol 27.24% annualised)XLE · 20d illustrative range53.5859.4365.2771.12Illustrative · vol 27.24% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
XLV  HEALTH CARE HOLD 🔥 40-issue streak
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
6/10 Conviction
$170.70
▲ +0.49%
Over the next 2–4 weeks hold healthcare as the defensive sleeve while it stays above the 50-day; RS vs SPY is still negative.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sXLV +0.49% Fri; 50>200 but 20d RS −0.5%Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sPx 170.7 vs 50d 167.7052 / 200d 156.32; RS
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
6/10
XLV +0.49% Fri; 50>200 but 20d RS −0.5%
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$167.71).

TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.

XLV · 20d illustrative range
XLV illustrative 20-day price cone from 170.7: 5th pct 165.2, median 170.67, 95th pct 176.32 (vol 7.03% annualised)XLV · 20d illustrative range164.53168.68172.84176.99Illustrative · vol 7.03% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
XBI  HEALTH CARE EXIT 🔥 40-issue streak
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
4/10 Conviction
$155.03
▼ -0.65%
The 50-day is lost again — EXIT stays the rule. Do not restack the Sep 14 PENDING SELL.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s155.03 ≤ sma50 157.73Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sPx 155.03 vs 50d 157.7324 / 200d 137.9891;
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
155.03 ≤ sma50 157.73 Sep 14 SELL still PENDING — skip restack
Invalidation: A daily close back above $157.73 would be a reclaim, not a new BUY today.

TradingView's price for XBI. It is not the last print in this letter.

XLB  MATERIALS EXIT 🔥 40-issue streak
Materials Select Sector SPDR
4/10 Conviction
$49.80
▲ +0.24%
Materials remain below the 50-day — EXIT. Skip restack of the Sep 14 PENDING SELL.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s49.80 ≤ sma50 51.70Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sPx 49.8 vs 50d 51.6986 / 200d 50.5452; RS
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
49.80 ≤ sma50 51.70 Sep 14 SELL still PENDING — skip restack
Invalidation: A daily close back above $51.70 would be a reclaim, not a new BUY today.

TradingView's price for XLB. It is not the last print in this letter.

Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Forex
ForexForex Rebalancing Radar 1 min
FOREX REBALANCING RADAR
Base currency: EUR
Currency vs EUR Short-term Medium-term Long-term
USD 🔥30 SEEK (6) SEEK (4) AVOID (-3)
JPY 🔥13 AVOID (-4) AVOID (-3) NEUTRAL (0)
GBP 🔥24 NEUTRAL (0) NEUTRAL (0) NEUTRAL (1)
CHF 🔥21 NEUTRAL (0) NEUTRAL (0) SEEK (2)
SEK 🔥5 AVOID (-3) AVOID (-2) NEUTRAL (0)
Suggested rebalancing actions
INCREASE USD vs EUR — Keep the USD tilt into 28 Oct — 75% hike odds and a 5.18% 10-year still pay vs ECB 2.50%.
Conviction 60%
Sources: CME FedWatch
DECREASE JPY vs EUR — Stay light JPY into Monday Tokyo; 157 is a dip, not a regime change, with rung-3 rhetoric live.
Conviction 50%
Crypto
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minSpot BTC ETFs took $191M on 24 Sep (six-day streak, IBIT $163M) and ETH $66M (fifth day) — still a HOLD tape at ~$83.9k / $2,685 with October hike odds ~75%.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Spot BTC ETFs took $191M on 24 Sep (six-day streak, IBIT $163M) and ETH $66M (fifth day) — still a HOLD tape at ~$83.9k / $2,685 with October hike odds ~75%.
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
BTC-USD Bitcoin 6.8 -0.26%
ETH-USD Ethereum 6.3 +0.42%
BTC-USD  HOLD 🔥 24-issue streak
Bitcoin
6.8/10 Conviction
$83884.00
▼ -0.26%
Over the next two weeks into 28 Oct FOMC, treat $84k as an ETF-bid hold — six inflow days vs ~75% hike odds, not a breakout add.
On-chain supply not scored this run.IBIT-led +$191M, six-day inflow streak.24 Sep print + 28 Oct FOMC.Institutional bid vs a 5.18% 10-year.83,884 vs Fri 84,102; held the $80k reclai
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
8/10
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
24 Sep Farside/SoSoValue: +$191M BTC ETF, six-day streak 28 Oct FOMC — FedWatch ~75% hike
Invalidation: Weekly close back through $76k.

TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.

undefined · 20d illustrative range
undefined illustrative 20-day price cone from 83884: 5th pct 68048.9, median 83255.75, 95th pct 101860.86 (vol 43.53% annualised)undefined · 20d illustrative range66020.1878643.3191266.45103889.58Illustrative · vol 43.53% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
ETH-USD  HOLD 🔥 23-issue streak
Ethereum
6.3/10 Conviction
$2685.25
▲ +0.42%
Over the next two weeks hold ETH as the secondary ETF sleeve — fifth inflow day, not a new L2 catalyst.
L2 TVL not refreshed this run.ETH ETFs +$66M, fifth day.Flow print only — no upgrade date.Secondary institutional sleeve under a hik2,685 vs Fri 2,674; 23 Sep spike 2,754 fad
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
7/10
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
24 Sep: spot ETH ETFs +$66.1M, fifth straight session No dated network upgrade this week — flow is the tape
Invalidation: Weekly close back through $2,400.

TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.

undefined · 20d illustrative range
undefined illustrative 20-day price cone from 2685.25: 5th pct 2122.01, median 2660.03, 95th pct 3334.46 (vol 48.77% annualised)undefined · 20d illustrative range2049.262501.912954.563407.21Illustrative · vol 48.77% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 3 minWTI −2.3% to $92.41 on Tehran’s 7-day Hormuz offer keeps USO a REDUCE; UNG holds the Columbia Gas FM; CPER stays a China-inventory hold.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
WTI −2.3% to $92.41 on Tehran’s 7-day Hormuz offer keeps USO a REDUCE; UNG holds the Columbia Gas FM; CPER stays a China-inventory hold.
Oil down and copper flat while TNX sits at 5.184% is a diplomacy-led energy fade, not a growth scare — if the Hormuz offer slips, the same 10-year will…
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
USO WTI crude (USO) 6.3 -3.11%
UNG U.S. natural gas (UNG) 7 -3.64%
CPER Copper (CPER) 5.8 -0.10%
WTI crude (USO)  ENERGY REDUCE 🔥 7-issue streak
USO
6.3/10 Conviction
$148.33
▼ -3.11%
Over the next few sessions treat WTI as two-sided: the 7-day Hormuz offer vs still-$30/bbl Gulf freight — do not add.
Prompt tightness vs a diplomacy-led supplyCOT positioning not priced this run.Iran 7-day Hormuz offer 25 Sep.War premium fading, not a demand collapse.USO 148.33 −3.11%; still above sma50 135.6
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
25 Sep: Iran 7-day Hormuz reopen offer; WTI $92.41 (−2.33%), USO −3.11% Physical still tight: Cushing prompt premiums and some European October allocations skipped (XTB)
Invalidation: WTI holds a close back above $100 with the offer dead.

TradingView's price for USO. It is not the last print in this letter.

undefined · 20d illustrative range
undefined illustrative 20-day price cone from 148.33: 5th pct 117.95, median 147.01, 95th pct 183.22 (vol 47.52% annualised)undefined · 20d illustrative range114.03138.4162.77187.14Illustrative · vol 47.52% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
U.S. natural gas (UNG)  ENERGY HOLD 🔥 3-issue streak
UNG
7/10 Conviction
$11.13
▼ -3.64%
Over the next week the Columbia Gas FM remains the tape — hold the existing sleeve, do not chase Friday’s −3.6% fade.
Appalachian FM + lost Mid-East LNG still tCOT not priced.Columbia Gas FM still live into this week.U.S. gas vs EU gas divergence (Saxo weeklyUNG 11.13 −3.64% after 11.55; sma50 10.28.
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
6/10
TC Energy Columbia Gas Transmission mechanical FM still the 24–25 Sep driver Henry Hub $3.20 (−3.1% Fri) after Thursday’s +9% squeeze
Invalidation: FM lifted and HH closes back under $2.80.

TradingView's price for UNG. It is not the last print in this letter.

undefined · 20d illustrative range
undefined illustrative 20-day price cone from 11.13: 5th pct 8.65, median 11.01, 95th pct 14.02 (vol 52.19% annualised)undefined · 20d illustrative range8.3310.3312.3414.34Illustrative · vol 52.19% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Copper (CPER)  INDUSTRIAL METAL HOLD 🔥 5-issue streak
CPER
5.8/10 Conviction
$40.61
▼ -0.10%
Over the next week copper stays a China-inventory hold: tight spot, sluggish tape, no fresh add after four HOLD days.
Physical tightness still offsets a 5.18% 1COT empty.Weekly tightness, no 48h smash/squeeze.Growth-metal hold, not a new China stimulu40.61 flat; sma50 39.68.
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
Saxo 25 Sep weekly: HG copper +1.5% on the week despite the 5% 10-year LME copper ~$14,621 unchanged Fri; CPER 40.61 (−0.10%)
Invalidation: LME stocks rebuild and HG loses $6.40 on a weekly close.

TradingView's price for CPER. It is not the last print in this letter.

undefined · 20d illustrative range
undefined illustrative 20-day price cone from 40.61: 5th pct 36.6, median 40.53, 95th pct 44.88 (vol 22.01% annualised)undefined · 20d illustrative range36.139.1942.2945.38Illustrative · vol 22.01% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
GeneralTop 5 Risks Right Now 1 min#1 October FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥4.00–4.25%)
TOP 5 RISKS RIGHT NOW
#RiskProbability Impact Trend
1October FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥4.00–4.25%)=HighHighStable
2USD/JPY air-pocket through 159–160 after Tokyo’s reopen=MediumHighStable
3Weekend Hormuz offer fails and oil re-squeezes >$100 WTI=MediumHighFading
4Crowded agentic-AI/CPU melt-up unwinds on the 5%+ 10y=MediumHighStable
5Bond-vol (MOVE) stays elevated vs a 14.9 VIX — credit/rates shock (breadth watch-item)NEWMediumMediumNew
Watch: FOMC 27–28 Oct — CME FedWatch ~75% for +25 bp
GeneralWhat's Coming Up 1 min2026-09-28 — Tokyo last cum-dividend session (Nikkei banks)
WHAT'S COMING UP
2026-09-28 Tokyo last cum-dividend session (Nikkei banks) · yesterday_retrospective
2026-09-30 Micron earnings — memory-tape test · risk_top5
2026-10-23 Konecranes CMD with Q3 (KCR.HE) · eu_equity_ideas
2026-10-27 FOMC day 1 · risk_top5
Sources: CME FedWatch
2026-10-28 FOMC decision — ~75% hike odds · risk_top5
Sources: CME FedWatch
Stocks
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 11 min30d hit rate 64%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech US
+2.68%
Named holdings. 139 smaller positions (31.04%) are off this picture.
Portfolio allocation: Cash 55.74%, GLD 7.41%, BTC-USD 7.06%, ETH-USD 5.84%, TTE.PA 5.5%, USO 5.41%, ASML.AS 4.83%, XOM 4.17%, DBC 4.03%Cash55.74%GLD7.41%BTC-USD7.06%ETH-USD5.84%TTE.PA5.5%USO5.41%ASML.AS4.83%XOM4.17%DBC4.03%
Tech US
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$102679.70
Cash
$9388.45
P&L
$2679.70 (+2.68%)
Realized P&L
$-3181.65
TWR
+1.79%
Sharpe
0.24
Max DD
-2.39%
Sortino
0.63
Calmar
4.11
Ann. return
+9.82%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions91%
Cash9%
Today's Moves
ActionTickerQtyStatus
BuySNPS0.4594dispatched
BuyJCI1.3dispatched
Current Holdings
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93$9432.21+10.7%
XOM ×129$20687.51+5.1%
UNH ×8.49$3198.23-11.6%
INTC ×14.08$1731.93-72.0%
MSFT ×11.91$6148.88+26.8%
SBUX ×11.63$1102.86-11.0%
CBRE ×8.29$1115.61-10.0%
AMZN ×5.95$1486.21-7.6%
+53 more holdings
Track Record 35 On Track · 19 Lagging · 12 Stopped Out
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
AAPL (2026-09-23)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
ABNB (2026-09-01)6.5/10-14.1%Stopped Out
ACN (2026-09-20)7/10-2.9%Lagging
ADBE (2026-09-07)6.5/10-11.6%Stopped Out
ADI (2026-08-21)8/10-2.4%Lagging
ALGT (2026-09-14)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
AMAT (2026-08-13)7.5/10+0.0%On Track
AMD (2026-08-31)6.5/10+35.2%On Track
AMZN (2026-08-29)7/10-7.6%Lagging
APH (2026-09-05)7.5/10+1.6%On Track
AVGO (2026-08-22)7/10-7.9%Lagging
COIN (2026-09-19)7.4/10+0.4%On Track
COP (2026-09-14)7.5/10+0.0%On Track
CRM (2026-09-08)7/10-9.7%Stopped Out
CRWD (2026-09-15)7.1/10+7.1%On Track
CSCO (2026-08-12)7.5/10-11.9%Stopped Out
CVX (2026-09-08)7/10-2.0%Lagging
DELL (2026-09-12)6.2/10+14.4%On Track
DUOL (2026-09-06)7.5/10-7.1%Lagging
ESI (2026-09-13)6.8/10+0.0%On Track
ESTC (2026-08-29)8/10-11.8%Stopped Out
FIVE (2026-09-06)7.5/10-11.7%Stopped Out
FRO (2026-09-08)7/10+7.7%On Track
GAP (2026-08-30)7/10-7.1%Lagging
GLW (2026-09-09)6.8/10+0.0%On Track
HAE (2026-09-18)6.8/10-2.1%Lagging
HAL (2026-09-03)6.5/10-12.9%Stopped Out
HD (2026-08-19)8/10-13.3%Stopped Out
HOOD (2026-09-04)7/10-4.3%Lagging
INTU (2026-08-26)7/10+0.0%On Track
IREN (2026-09-16)6/10+6.1%On Track
JBHT (2026-09-18)6.5/10-4.8%Lagging
JEF (2026-09-10)6.3/10+0.0%On Track
JPM (2026-09-08)6.5/10-4.3%Lagging
LHX (2026-09-15)6/10-3.2%Lagging
LITE (2026-09-17)7/10+2.4%On Track
LLY (2026-09-15)7.1/10+3.6%On Track
LMT (2026-09-15)6.6/10+0.0%On Track
LRCX (2026-09-19)7.4/10+9.4%On Track
MRK (2026-09-10)7.2/10+0.8%On Track
MRVL (2026-08-22)8/10+118.6%On Track
MU (2026-08-15)7.5/10-1.3%Lagging
NAT (2026-08-31)7/10+13.1%On Track
NVDA (2026-08-28)7.5/10-1.5%Lagging
OI (2026-08-24)7/10-18.4%Stopped Out
ORCL (2026-09-11)7.2/10-15.6%Stopped Out
PSX (2026-09-07)7/10+0.3%On Track
QCOM (2026-09-09)7/10+0.0%On Track
RDDT (2026-08-18)7.5/10-13.6%Stopped Out
ROST (2026-08-23)8/10-3.2%Lagging
RTX (2026-09-05)7.5/10-5.7%Lagging
SHEL (2026-08-30)6.5/10+5.2%On Track
SLB (2026-09-01)7/10-14.2%Stopped Out
SNDK (2026-09-23)7.3/10+0.0%On Track
SNOW (2026-09-04)7.5/10-5.8%Lagging
TGT (2026-08-22)7/10-4.0%Lagging
TLN (2026-09-20)6.8/10+4.1%On Track
V (2026-08-25)7/10-5.3%Lagging
VLO (2026-09-02)7/10+7.0%On Track
VRTX (2026-09-13)6.9/10+0.0%On Track
WMT (2026-08-20)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
XOM (2026-08-18)7.5/10+10.8%On Track
DG (2026-09-25)7/10+0.0%On Track
COST (2026-09-25)6.8/10+0.0%On Track
SNPS (2026-09-26)7/10+0.0%On Track
JCI (2026-09-26)7/10+0.0%On Track
Euro Only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$121086.29
Cash
$15930.86
P&L
$21086.29 (+21.09%)
Realized P&L
$-42835.98
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
ActionTickerQtyStatus
BuyATE.PA4.35dispatched
BuyTTE.PA4.15dispatched
Current Holdings
⚠ Live marks degraded — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702$23967.39—
TTE.PA ×368$27276.04—
UNA.AS ×48.5$2832.95—
RR.L ×101$1460.08—
VIE.PA ×48.5$1430.88—
GLE.PA ×22.15$1755.04—
MNDI.L ×158$1402.26—
NWG.L ×191$1346.17—
+44 more holdings
Track Record 52 On Track · 2 Lagging
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
ABN.AS (2026-08-24)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
ADYEN.AS (2026-09-03)7/10+0.0%On Track
AIR.PA (2026-09-08)7/10+0.0%On Track
ALV.DE (2026-08-29)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
ASML.AS (2026-08-30)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
BAB.L (2026-09-16)7.3/10+0.0%On Track
BAVA.CO (2026-08-23)7/10+0.0%On Track
BP.L (2026-09-12)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
DEME.BR (2026-08-27)7/10+0.0%On Track
DTE.DE (2026-09-04)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
ENI.MI (2026-09-02)7/10+0.0%On Track
ENR.DE (2026-09-01)7/10+0.0%On Track
EOAN.DE (2026-08-27)7/10+0.0%On Track
EUROB.AT (2026-09-07)7/10+0.0%On Track
EVD.DE (2026-08-22)7/10+0.0%On Track
EXENS.PA (2026-09-17)7.5/10+4.0%On Track
FGR.PA (2026-08-28)6/10+0.0%On Track
FLS.CO (2026-08-21)6/10+0.0%On Track
GSK.L (2026-09-15)7/10+0.0%On Track
INW.MI (2026-08-26)7/10+0.0%On Track
ISP.MI (2026-09-11)6.7/10+0.0%On Track
IVG.MI (2026-09-05)7.5/10+0.0%On Track
KGX.DE (2026-09-09)7/10+0.0%On Track
KIE.L (2026-09-15)7/10+0.0%On Track
LR.PA (2026-08-31)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
MSLH.L (2026-08-11)6/10+0.0%On Track
MT.AS (2026-09-06)7/10+0.0%On Track
NDX1.DE (2026-09-08)6.8/10+0.0%On Track
NOVN.SW (2026-09-13)6.2/10+0.0%On Track
NSIS-B.CO (2026-08-21)7/10+0.0%On Track
PUB.PA (2026-09-04)7/10+0.0%On Track
REP.MC (2026-09-02)7/10+0.0%On Track
RIO.L (2026-09-10)7/10+0.0%On Track
RWE.DE (2026-09-03)7/10+0.0%On Track
SAN.MC (2026-09-08)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
SAP.DE (2026-08-30)7/10+0.0%On Track
SHEL.L (2026-08-22)6/10+1.2%On Track
SHL.DE (2026-08-24)7/10+0.0%On Track
SIE.DE (2026-08-29)7/10+0.0%On Track
SOI.PA (2026-09-17)6.8/10-0.5%Lagging
SU.PA (2026-08-31)7/10+0.0%On Track
TEF.MC (2026-09-07)7/10+0.0%On Track
TKA.DE (2026-09-06)7.5/10+0.0%On Track
TTE.PA (2026-09-01)7/10-1.9%Lagging
TTE.PA (2026-09-14)7.3/10+0.0%On Track
VOD.L (2026-09-05)7/10+0.0%On Track
DRX.L (2026-09-18)7/10+0.0%On Track
NXT.L (2026-09-18)7.3/10+0.0%On Track
ORSTED.CO (2026-09-19)6.8/10+0.0%On Track
GLE.PA (2026-09-21)6.7/10+1.5%On Track
BEZ.DE (2026-09-21)7/10+21.9%On Track
SAN.MC (2026-09-23)7/10+0.0%On Track
KCR.HE (2026-09-25)7.3/10+0.0%On Track
ATE.PA (2026-09-26)7.3/10+0.0%On Track
Penny Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live marks degraded — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578$3755.55—
PYPD ×1564$6940.50—
STXS ×2738$3557.21—
Track Record 4 On Track
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
BFRI (2026-09-09)5/10+0.0%On Track
INO (2026-08-24)4.5/10+0.0%On Track
OTLK (2026-09-09)4/10+0.0%On Track
PYPD (2026-08-19)6.5/10+6.1%On Track
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$35000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
ActionTickerQtyStatus
HoldGLD——
Current Holdings
⚠ Live marks degraded — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65$25000.00—
IEF ×108$10000.00—
DBC ×654$20000.00—
SPLV ×132$10000.00—
Trend Follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$75717.93
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
ActionTickerQtyStatus
HoldSMH——
Current Holdings
⚠ Live marks degraded — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86$5539.52—
SMH ×5.03$2990.61—
XLV ×30.27$5207.77—
XBI ×32$5207.77—
XLB ×93.53$4954.78—
Track Record 5 On Track · 5 Lagging
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
ITA (2026-08-21)4/10-5.8%Lagging
QQQ (2026-09-07)3/10+0.0%On Track
SMH (2026-09-09)4.5/10+0.0%On Track
XBI (2026-08-23)8/10-1.4%Lagging
XLB (2026-08-23)8/10-3.1%Lagging
XLE (2026-08-23)8/10+2.6%On Track
XLF (2026-09-08)6/10+0.0%On Track
XLK (2026-09-08)6/10+0.0%On Track
XLRE (2026-08-20)6.5/10-2.6%Lagging
XLV (2026-08-23)8/10-4.3%Lagging
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$26717.65
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live marks degraded — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
USO ×206$26795.83—
GLD ×30.1$11738.20—
CPER ×150$5929.12—
SLV ×93.58$5545.24—
PPLT ×66.63$1111.38—
BNO ×35.14$1850.57—
URA ×23.16$1066.93—
UGA ×26.78$3377.87—
+11 more holdings
Track Record 7 On Track · 15 Lagging · 2 Stopped Out
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
BNO (2026-09-07)7/10+8.0%On Track
CANE (2026-09-06)6.5/10-3.2%Lagging
COPX (2026-09-08)7/10-3.7%Lagging
CORN (2026-08-31)7/10-1.3%Lagging
CPER (2026-09-09)7/10-1.9%Lagging
GDX (2026-09-04)7/10-5.9%Lagging
GLD (2026-08-30)5/10-1.9%Lagging
LIT (2026-08-24)6.5/10-8.0%Lagging
PALL (2026-08-30)4/10-8.1%Stopped Out
PPLT (2026-09-05)7/10-1.1%Lagging
SIL (2026-09-04)6.5/10-6.1%Lagging
SLV (2026-09-01)6.5/10-0.5%Lagging
SLX (2026-09-07)6.5/10-4.4%Lagging
SOYB (2026-08-30)6.5/10+1.8%On Track
UGA (2026-09-06)7/10+9.0%On Track
UNG (2026-09-03)6.5/10+6.4%On Track
UNG (2026-09-15)6.9/10+6.4%On Track
URA (2026-09-05)7/10-9.6%Stopped Out
USO (2026-09-09)6.3/10+6.3%On Track
USO (2026-09-15)7.2/10+6.3%On Track
WEAT (2026-08-30)7.5/10-0.9%Lagging
WEAT (2026-09-17)6.8/10-0.9%Lagging
CPER (2026-09-18)6.8/10-1.9%Lagging
SLV (2026-09-19)7/10-0.5%Lagging
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$32370.73
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live marks degraded — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5510$35015.45—
ETH-USD ×14.91$28949.67—
SOL-USD ×26.81$2795.91—
XRP-USD ×628$868.24—
Track Record 2 On Track · 4 Lagging
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
BTC (2026-08-11)6/10+0.0%On Track
BTC-USD (2026-09-09)7/10-3.0%Lagging
ETH (2026-08-11)5/10+0.0%On Track
ETH-USD (2026-09-09)5.8/10-3.0%Lagging
SOL-USD (2026-08-30)6.5/10-1.4%Lagging
XRP-USD (2026-08-29)6/10-6.3%Lagging
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +64.00%
Glossary
gold/copper ratio
The gold/copper ratio divides a fear/monetary metal by a growth metal.
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures

General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.

Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.

Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.

Morning Alpha • Generated Sat, 26 Sep 2026 07:25:00 GMT • info@gmc-works.com