yesterday_retrospective — Sunday run — presentation=skip; Friday 2026-09-25 already explained in nl_2026-09-26_092500. No new cash session. GET /movers losers again printed close=0 / −100% (AMD/CVX/MRNA); movers[] omitted.
market_pulse — Cash tiles still Friday eodhd (SPX 7,743.41). SPX analytics snapshot close 7,704.13 (Thu) on date 2026-09-25 — copied breadth/ATH, used live eodhd 7,743.41. DGS10 FRED 5.18 (24 Sep) vs TNX 5.184. DTWEXBGS weekly 118.21 on 11 Sep. Squawk 401.
us_equity_ideas — Screener-first (311 US). Honest zero — Friday SNPS/JCI already published Saturday. MSFT Oppenheimer/Stifel upgrades already moved Friday. GDDY Baird PT sits on a Thursday Gen Digital approach. Widened off SNPS/JCI/DG/COST/SNDK/AAPL/META.
eu_equity_ideas — eu_fundamentals_gap — GLEN.L /fundamentals empty and /news empty (AV 429). UBS Buy/650p from web 26 Sep. Widened off ATE.PA/TTE.PA/KCR.HE/SAN.MC/TUI1.DE. Explicit EUR 6.528 used for Sunday dispatch.
penny_plays — screener unavailable or empty for category=penny — fell back to web search; penny universe may not be seeded yet. Publish zero ideas. Did not recycle BFRI.
forex_rebalancing — squawk-alert feed unavailable (401 missing X-Account-Key) — fell back to central-bank web search. /predictions Manifold probability null — October hike ~75% from CME FedWatch web. EUR crosses from Yahoo after aggregator history n=0.
commodities_outlook — Did not re-BUY SLV/USO/CPER/WEAT/CORN/UNG. COT empty. Yahoo used for % and sparklines. Checked URA/PPLT/LIT/SOYB/JO; weekend catalyst is Hormuz rejection (USO HOLD, not a new BUY).
crypto_landscape — Week-to-25 Sep ETF prints from The Block/SoSoValue, not aggregator. BTC-USD/ETH-USD remain known PM 400s — HOLD, no re-BUY. No third asset (anti-repetition vs XRP; SOL ETF Friday not enough to add).
trend_follow — Aggregator /price/history returned empty arrays; Yahoo 1y used for sma50/sma200. 6/18 above sma50. At 5-name cap — skip XLK/QQQ BUY even though rules passed. XLB/XBI EXIT skip restack of Sep 14 PENDING SELL. SMH PENDING SELL leftover skipped — tape is HOLD.
risk_top5 — GET /predictions returned Manifold items with probability null — October hike odds ~75% from CME FedWatch web. Forced-diversity slot is labor/NFP (new category vs Saturday credit/MOVE).
risk_cover_playbook — Put/call omitted (no Cboe print). Sector pairwise omitted (not stored). MOVE from Yahoo 96. Index breadth from analytics session that still prices Thursday’s 7,704 close. Stock-bond 20d corr +0.66 from Yahoo SPY/TLT.
portfolio_reality_check — File PORTFOLIO_ID_TECH_US used. GLEN.L 48.81 @ EUR 6.528 FILLED. Euro/Penny/AF/Trend/Commodities/Crypto /positions all_prices_estimated (JCI still estimated). Did not re-BUY ACN/TLN/LRCX/COIN/HAE/JBHT/LITE/IREN/ORSTED/DRX/NXT/EXENS/SOI/GLE/BEZ/META/ARHS/SNDK/AAPL/SAN.MC/DG/COST/KCR.HE/SNPS/JCI/ATE.PA/TTE.PA/CPER/WEAT/SLV/CORN/UNG/USO/BTC/ETH. HAL/AMZN/SLB/ORCL/ESTC/GAP/HD/RDDT/HOOD/OI/CSCO/UNH/INTC/ADBE/ABNB/CRM/FIVE pending SELLs skipped. XLB/XBI/SMH TF PENDING SELLs skipped. Wednesday AF DBC/GLD SELL + TLT/IEF/SPLV BUY left PENDING — not restacked (book already at inflationary weights). INTC −72% is cost-basis outlier — not stop-lossed. AMZN recovered to −6.29% vs 29 Aug pick — lagging, SELL still PENDING.
October FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥4.00–4.25%)
Probability: High • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $102679.70
Blended P&L: +2.68% • 30d Hit Rate: +64.40%
1 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 105 of 163 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 10.7%, average loss -5.7%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 3 minTNX 5.184% and DFF 3.88% still price a tightening Fed, but VIX 14.87 and HY OAS 2.80 (24 Sep) stayed easy; weekly USD 118.21 (11 Sep) is a different clock.
MARKET PULSE
SPX is still 0.85% under the 7,810 ATH at Friday’s 7,743; VIX 14.87 vs VIX3M 17.93 (0.83 contango) while TNX prints 5.184% and stock-bond 20d corr flipped to +0.66.
Mixed tape Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
AITNX 5.184% and DFF 3.88% still price a tightening Fed, but VIX 14.87 and HY OAS 2.80 (24 Sep) stayed easy; weekly USD 118.21 (11 Sep) is a different clock.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,743.41
yday 7,743.41
▲ +0.51%
NASDAQ Data
27,068.72
yday 27,068.72
▲ +0.48%
Dow Jones Data
51,828.62
yday 51,828.62
▲ +0.93%
Russell 2K Data
2,837.55
yday 2,837.55
▲ +0.07%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
4,321.20
yday 4,321.20
▲ +0.54%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data
92.41
yday 92.41
▼ -2.33%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
84,497.00
yday 83,884.00
▲ +0.73%
Ethereum Data
2,708.94
yday 2,685.25
▲ +0.88%
Rates
10Y Yield Data
5.18
yday 5.18
▲ +0.43%
UST 10y (FRED 24 Sep) Data
5.18
yday 5.11
+7bp
UST 30y Data
5.47
yday 5.47
+7bp
Eff. fed funds Data
3.88
yday 3.88
unch
Credit
HY OAS Data
2.80
yday 2.80
+7bp
IG OAS Data
0.79 pct
yday 0.79 pct
calm
HY−IG spread differential Data
2.01 pct
calm
Volatility
VIX Data
14.87
yday 14.87
▼ -5.11%
VIX spot (eodhd) Data
14.87
yday 14.87
-0.80
VIX9D/VIX Data
0.86 ratio
calm
VIX/VIX3M term structure Data
0.83 ratio
yday 0.83 ratio
calm
MOVE index Data
96.00 index
yday 96.00 index
watch
Dollar & FX
EUR/USD Data
1.14
yday 1.14
▲ +0.23%
USD broad (weekly 11 Sep) Data
118.21
yday 118.21
—
wk
Breadth
SPY−RSP 5d Data
+3.04pp
yday +3.04pp
—
SPY−RSP 21d Data
+5.15pp
yday +5.15pp
—
% from 52w Data
-0.85%
yday -0.85%
—
Stock-bond 20d correlation (SPY vs TLT) Data
0.66 ratio
stress
% of S&P 500 above SMA200 Data
59.13 pct
yday 59.13 pct
watch
Liquidity
SOFR−fed funds Data
0.00 pct
calm
Initial claims (latest weekly) Data
197,000.00 count
calm
Cross-asset
Gold/copper ratio (GLD/CPER) Data
9.69 ratio
yday 9.69 ratio
calm
Other
UST 3y Data
4.99
yday 4.99
+2bp
Cover checks
VIX Data
14.87 / 25.00
yday 14.87
Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread Data
0.36 / -0.20
yday 0.31 / -0.20
Not Triggered
HY OAS Data
2.80 / 5.00
yday 2.80
Not Triggered
SPX drawdown from ATH Data
-0.85 / -10.00
yday -0.85 / -10.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AIFriday’s oil dip does not flip the mix: TNX 5.184%, hike odds ~75%, copper still above its 50-day and HY OAS a tight 2.80. Trump’s Saturday Hormuz rejection puts the energy premium back on the table into Monday. Own gold + broad commodities; keep long duration at 0.
• Trim high-beta tech (SMH/XLK) back toward the 50-day
• Add GLD / TLT / SH only if two hard triggers fire
AI0/4 hard triggers fired, but 1 of 11 internals is stress (stock-bond 20d corr +0.66) and 2 are watch (MOVE 96, 59% above SMA200) — a calm equity vol surface over a bond market that has stopped hedging. Gave stays inflationary_boom: TNX 5.184%, hike odds ~75%, copper above its 50-day; Saturday’s Hormuz rejection argues for keeping long duration at 0, not flipping to TLT.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 4 minSemis still clear the 50/200/RS tests (SMH RS +5.8%) but the book is at the 5-name cap — HOLD SMH/XLE/XLV; XBI/XLB remain EXIT and are not restacked.
TREND FOLLOW
Semis still clear the 50/200/RS tests (SMH RS +5.8%) but the book is at the 5-name cap — HOLD SMH/XLE/XLV; XBI/XLB remain EXIT and are not restacked.
6 of 18 universe names close above their 50-day (QQQ, XLK, XLE, XLV, XLC, SMH) — same narrow tape as Friday.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
7.5
+1.01%
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR
6
-0.89%
XLV
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
6
+0.49%
XBI
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
4
-0.65%
XLB
Materials Select Sector SPDR
4
+0.24%
SMHINFORMATION TECHNOLOGYHOLD🔥 42-issue streak
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
7.5/10Conviction
$606.56
▲ +1.01%
Over the next 2–4 weeks stay long semis only while SMH holds the 50-day; do not add at the 5-name cap.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sSMH +1.01% Fri; still 50>200 with RS +5.8%Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sPx 606.56 vs 50d 565.89 / 200d 493.28; RS
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
8/10
SMH +1.01% Fri; still 50>200 with RS +5.8% vs SPYSkip XLK/QQQ BUY — same sleeve, cap full
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$565.89).
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minBTC ETFs took $2.4B in the week to 25 Sep, flipping 2026 YTD positive; ETH added $690M. Weekend tape ~$84.5k / $2,709 stays HOLD into October hike odds.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
BTC ETFs took $2.4B in the week to 25 Sep, flipping 2026 YTD positive; ETH added $690M. Weekend tape ~$84.5k / $2,709 stays HOLD into October hike odds.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
6.8
+0.73%
ETH-USD
Ethereum
6.3
+0.88%
BTC-USDHOLD🔥 25-issue streak
Bitcoin
6.8/10Conviction
$84497.00
▲ +0.73%
Over the next week stay long-but-unadded: a $2.4B ETF week flipped 2026 YTD positive, but Friday’s $134M print and ~75% hike odds cap the chase.
On-chain dump not pulled this run.Weekly ETF +$2.4B; YTD flip.Sat SoSoValue/The Block weekly print.Hike-odds still cap a chase into 28 Oct.CoinGecko $84,497 vs Friday $83,884.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
8/10
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
Week to 25 Sep BTC ETFs +$2.4B; 2026 YTD flipped positive (The Block)Friday daily inflow only $134M after Monday’s $999M
Invalidation: Weekly close back under $78k.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next week hold ETH as a flow satellite: $690M weekly ETF inflows reversed last week’s outflow, not a new BUY at $2,709.
On-chain/L2 TVL not pulled this run.ETH ETFs +$690M on the week.Weekly inflow reversal vs prior outflow.Satellite to BTC flows, not a new tape.CoinGecko $2,708.94, weekend +0.9%.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
7/10
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
Spot ETH ETFs +$689.9M in the week to 25 Sep after a $140M outflow weekWeekend CoinGecko $2,708.94 vs Friday $2,685
Invalidation: Weekly close back under $2,400.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 3 minTrump’s Saturday rejection of Iran’s 7-day Hormuz plan flips USO from REDUCE to HOLD into Monday; UNG waits on the TCO update; CPER holds as Escondida only restarts gradually.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Trump’s Saturday rejection of Iran’s 7-day Hormuz plan flips USO from REDUCE to HOLD into Monday; UNG waits on the TCO update; CPER holds as Escondida only restarts gradually.
Oil’s Friday −2.3% dip sat next to TNX 5.184% and copper still above its 50-day — an inflationary-boom mix that Sunday’s Hormuz rejection should test at…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
USO
WTI crude (USO)
6.8
-3.11%
UNG
U.S. natural gas (UNG)
6
-3.64%
CPER
Copper (CPER)
6
-0.10%
WTI crude (USO)ENERGYHOLD🔥 8-issue streak
USO
6.8/10Conviction
$148.33
▼ -3.11%
Over the next sessions treat USO as a hold, not a chase: Trump killed Friday’s 7-day Hormuz dip, but Monday’s cash print is the first real tape.
Hormuz still closed; physical tightness inCOT positioning not priced this run.Trump rejected the 7-day offer Saturday.Energy-inflation floor back on the weekendUSO 148.33 −3.11% Fri; wait for Monday cas
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
5/10
26 Sep: Trump rejects Iran’s 7-day Hormuz reopen plan (WaPo / Al Jazeera)Friday cash still WTI $92.41 / USO 148.33 (−3.11%) — Monday is the first reprice
Invalidation: WTI holds a close back under $85 with Hormuz shipping normalizing.
TradingView's price for USO. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next week hold UNG for the Columbia Gas FM through the 28 Sep gas day — do not add ahead of Sunday’s TCO update.
FM live but smaller than the first 1.8 BcfCOT not priced.Sunday TCO update; FM through 28 Sep.Storage still long; this is a pipeline stoUNG 11.13 −3.64% Fri; +6.9% over 5 session
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
6/10
TCO FM through the 28 Sep gas day; Sunday update scheduled (Energy Intelligence)Impact 1.4 Bcf/d vs 1.8 feared; HH $3.20 Friday after the squeeze faded
Invalidation: FM lifted and HH closes back under $2.80.
TradingView's price for UNG. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next week keep CPER as a tightness hold: Escondida’s gradual restart does not refill Shanghai’s thin cathode stocks.
Shanghai cathode still tight vs a gradual COT empty.Escondida restart 26 Sep did not dump the Copper vs gold split: growth metal, not a CPER 40.61 −0.10%; still above the 50-day.
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
26 Sep: BHP Escondida restart is gradual; LME copper stayed firm FridayCOMEX Cu $6.70 Fri, ~1.6% under the 9 Sep record (Canadian Mining Report)
Invalidation: HG loses $6.40 on a weekly close after a full Escondida restart.
TradingView's price for CPER. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 10 min30d hit rate 64%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech US
+2.68%
Named holdings. 140 smaller positions (31.08%) are off this picture.
Tech US
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$102679.70
Cash
$9388.45
P&L
$2679.70 (+2.68%)
Realized P&L
$-3181.65
TWR
+1.79%
Sharpe
0.24
Max DD
-2.39%
Sortino
0.61
Calmar
4.04
Ann. return
+9.67%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions91%
Cash9%
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$9432.21
+10.7%
XOM ×129
$20687.51
+5.1%
UNH ×8.49
$3198.23
-11.6%
INTC ×14.08
$1731.93
-72.0%
MSFT ×11.91
$6148.88
+26.8%
SBUX ×11.63
$1102.86
-11.0%
CBRE ×8.29
$1115.61
-10.0%
AMZN ×5.95
$1486.21
-7.6%
+53 more holdings
Track Record
35 On Track · 20 Lagging · 11 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
AAPL (2026-09-23)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ABNB (2026-09-01)
6.5/10
-14.1%
Stopped Out
ACN (2026-09-20)
7/10
-2.9%
Lagging
ADBE (2026-09-07)
6.5/10
-11.6%
Stopped Out
ADI (2026-08-21)
8/10
-2.4%
Lagging
ALGT (2026-09-14)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
AMAT (2026-08-13)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
AMD (2026-08-31)
6.5/10
+35.5%
On Track
AMZN (2026-08-29)
7/10
-6.3%
Lagging
APH (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
+1.6%
On Track
AVGO (2026-08-22)
7/10
-7.9%
Lagging
COIN (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
+0.4%
On Track
COP (2026-09-14)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
COST (2026-09-25)
6.8/10
+0.0%
On Track
CRM (2026-08-28)
8/10
-7.2%
Lagging
CRWD (2026-09-15)
7.1/10
+7.1%
On Track
CSCO (2026-08-12)
7.5/10
-11.9%
Stopped Out
CVX (2026-09-08)
7/10
-2.0%
Lagging
DELL (2026-09-03)
7.5/10
+14.4%
On Track
DG (2026-09-25)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
DUOL (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
-7.1%
Lagging
ESI (2026-09-13)
6.8/10
+0.0%
On Track
ESTC (2026-08-29)
8/10
-11.8%
Stopped Out
FIVE (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
-11.7%
Stopped Out
FRO (2026-09-02)
7/10
+7.7%
On Track
GAP (2026-08-30)
7/10
-7.1%
Lagging
GLW (2026-09-09)
6.8/10
+0.0%
On Track
HAE (2026-09-18)
6.8/10
-2.1%
Lagging
HAL (2026-09-03)
6.5/10
-12.9%
Stopped Out
HD (2026-08-19)
8/10
-13.3%
Stopped Out
HOOD (2026-09-04)
7/10
-4.3%
Lagging
INTU (2026-08-26)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
IREN (2026-09-16)
6/10
+6.1%
On Track
JBHT (2026-09-18)
6.5/10
-4.8%
Lagging
JCI (2026-09-26)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
JEF (2026-09-10)
6.3/10
+0.0%
On Track
JPM (2026-09-08)
6.5/10
-4.3%
Lagging
LHX (2026-09-15)
6/10
-3.2%
Lagging
LITE (2026-09-17)
7/10
+2.4%
On Track
LLY (2026-09-15)
7.1/10
+3.6%
On Track
LMT (2026-09-15)
6.6/10
+0.0%
On Track
LRCX (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
+9.4%
On Track
MRK (2026-09-10)
7.2/10
+0.8%
On Track
MRVL (2026-08-22)
8/10
+118.6%
On Track
MU (2026-08-15)
7.5/10
-1.3%
Lagging
NAT (2026-08-31)
7/10
+14.0%
On Track
NVDA (2026-08-28)
7.5/10
-1.3%
Lagging
OI (2026-08-24)
7/10
-18.4%
Stopped Out
ORCL (2026-09-11)
7.2/10
-15.6%
Stopped Out
PSX (2026-09-07)
7/10
+0.3%
On Track
QCOM (2026-09-09)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
RDDT (2026-08-18)
7.5/10
-13.6%
Stopped Out
ROST (2026-08-23)
8/10
-3.2%
Lagging
RTX (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
-5.7%
Lagging
SHEL (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
+5.4%
On Track
SLB (2026-09-01)
7/10
-14.2%
Stopped Out
SNDK (2026-09-23)
7.3/10
+0.0%
On Track
SNOW (2026-09-04)
7.5/10
-5.8%
Lagging
SNPS (2026-09-26)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
TGT (2026-08-22)
7/10
-4.0%
Lagging
TLN (2026-09-20)
6.8/10
+4.1%
On Track
V (2026-08-25)
7/10
-5.3%
Lagging
VLO (2026-09-02)
7/10
+7.0%
On Track
VRTX (2026-09-13)
6.9/10
+0.0%
On Track
WMT (2026-08-20)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
XOM (2026-08-18)
7.5/10
+10.8%
On Track
Euro Only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$121086.29
Cash
$15612.22
P&L
$21086.29 (+21.09%)
Realized P&L
$-42835.98
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
GLEN.L
48.81
dispatched
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh mark.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702
$23967.39
—
TTE.PA ×368
$27276.04
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
—
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
—
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
—
GLE.PA ×22.15
$1755.04
—
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
—
NWG.L ×191
$1346.17
—
+45 more holdings
Track Record
52 On Track · 1 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
ABN.AS (2026-08-24)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ADYEN.AS (2026-09-03)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
AIR.PA (2026-09-08)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
ALV.DE (2026-08-29)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ASML.AS (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ATE.PA (2026-09-26)
7.3/10
+0.0%
On Track
BAB.L (2026-09-16)
7.3/10
+0.0%
On Track
BAVA.CO (2026-08-23)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
BEZ.DE (2026-09-21)
7/10
+21.9%
On Track
BP.L (2026-09-12)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
DEME.BR (2026-08-27)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
DRX.L (2026-09-18)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
DTE.DE (2026-09-04)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ENI.MI (2026-09-02)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
ENR.DE (2026-09-01)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
EOAN.DE (2026-08-27)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
EUROB.AT (2026-09-07)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
EVD.DE (2026-08-22)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
EXENS.PA (2026-09-17)
7.5/10
+4.0%
On Track
FGR.PA (2026-08-28)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
FLS.CO (2026-08-21)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
GLE.PA (2026-09-21)
6.7/10
+1.5%
On Track
GLEN.L (2026-09-27)
6.3/10
+0.0%
On Track
GSK.L (2026-09-15)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
INW.MI (2026-08-26)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
ISP.MI (2026-09-11)
6.7/10
+0.0%
On Track
IVG.MI (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
KCR.HE (2026-09-25)
7.3/10
+0.0%
On Track
KGX.DE (2026-09-09)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
KIE.L (2026-09-15)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
LR.PA (2026-08-31)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
MSLH.L (2026-08-11)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
MT.AS (2026-09-06)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
NDX1.DE (2026-09-08)
6.8/10
+0.0%
On Track
NOVN.SW (2026-09-13)
6.2/10
+0.0%
On Track
NSIS-B.CO (2026-08-21)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
NXT.L (2026-09-18)
7.3/10
+0.0%
On Track
ORSTED.CO (2026-09-19)
6.8/10
+0.0%
On Track
PUB.PA (2026-09-04)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
REP.MC (2026-09-02)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
RIO.L (2026-09-10)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
RWE.DE (2026-09-03)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SAN.MC (2026-09-23)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SAP.DE (2026-08-30)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SHEL.L (2026-08-22)
6/10
+1.2%
On Track
SHL.DE (2026-08-24)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SIE.DE (2026-08-29)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SOI.PA (2026-09-17)
6.8/10
-0.5%
Lagging
SU.PA (2026-08-31)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
TEF.MC (2026-09-07)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
TKA.DE (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
TTE.PA (2026-09-14)
7.3/10
+0.0%
On Track
VOD.L (2026-09-05)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
Penny Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh mark.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578
$3755.55
—
PYPD ×1564
$6940.50
—
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
—
Track Record
4 On Track
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BFRI (2026-09-09)
5/10
+0.0%
On Track
INO (2026-08-24)
4.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
OTLK (2026-09-09)
4/10
+0.0%
On Track
PYPD (2026-08-19)
6.5/10
+6.1%
On Track
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$35000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh mark.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65
$25000.00
—
IEF ×108
$10000.00
—
DBC ×654
$20000.00
—
SPLV ×132
$10000.00
—
Trend Follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$75717.93
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh mark.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86
$5539.52
—
SMH ×5.03
$2990.61
—
XLV ×30.27
$5207.77
—
XBI ×32
$5207.77
—
XLB ×93.53
$4954.78
—
Track Record
5 On Track · 5 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
ITA (2026-08-21)
4/10
-5.8%
Lagging
QQQ (2026-09-07)
3/10
+0.0%
On Track
SMH (2026-09-09)
4.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
XBI (2026-08-23)
8/10
-1.4%
Lagging
XLB (2026-08-23)
8/10
-3.1%
Lagging
XLE (2026-08-23)
8/10
+2.6%
On Track
XLF (2026-09-08)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
XLK (2026-09-08)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
XLRE (2026-08-20)
6.5/10
-2.6%
Lagging
XLV (2026-08-23)
8/10
-4.3%
Lagging
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$26717.65
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh mark.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×206
$26795.83
—
GLD ×30.1
$11738.20
—
CPER ×150
$5929.12
—
SLV ×93.58
$5545.24
—
PPLT ×66.63
$1111.38
—
BNO ×35.14
$1850.57
—
URA ×23.16
$1066.93
—
UGA ×26.78
$3377.87
—
+11 more holdings
Track Record
7 On Track · 15 Lagging · 2 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BNO (2026-09-07)
7/10
+8.0%
On Track
CANE (2026-09-06)
6.5/10
-3.2%
Lagging
COPX (2026-09-08)
7/10
-3.7%
Lagging
CORN (2026-08-31)
7/10
-1.3%
Lagging
CPER (2026-09-09)
7/10
-1.9%
Lagging
GDX (2026-09-04)
7/10
-5.9%
Lagging
GLD (2026-08-30)
5/10
-1.9%
Lagging
LIT (2026-08-24)
6.5/10
-8.0%
Lagging
PALL (2026-08-30)
4/10
-8.1%
Stopped Out
PPLT (2026-09-05)
7/10
-1.1%
Lagging
SIL (2026-09-04)
6.5/10
-6.1%
Lagging
SLV (2026-09-01)
6.5/10
-0.5%
Lagging
SLX (2026-09-07)
6.5/10
-4.4%
Lagging
SOYB (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
+1.8%
On Track
UGA (2026-09-06)
7/10
+9.0%
On Track
UNG (2026-09-03)
6.5/10
+6.4%
On Track
UNG (2026-09-15)
6.9/10
+6.4%
On Track
URA (2026-09-05)
7/10
-9.6%
Stopped Out
USO (2026-09-09)
6.3/10
+6.3%
On Track
USO (2026-09-15)
7.2/10
+6.3%
On Track
WEAT (2026-08-30)
7.5/10
-0.9%
Lagging
WEAT (2026-09-17)
6.8/10
-0.9%
Lagging
CPER (2026-09-18)
6.8/10
-1.9%
Lagging
SLV (2026-09-19)
7/10
-0.5%
Lagging
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$32370.73
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh mark.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5510
$35015.45
—
ETH-USD ×14.91
$28949.67
—
SOL-USD ×26.81
$2795.91
—
XRP-USD ×628
$868.24
—
Track Record
2 On Track · 4 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BTC (2026-08-11)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
BTC-USD (2026-09-09)
7/10
-3.0%
Lagging
ETH (2026-08-11)
5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ETH-USD (2026-09-09)
5.8/10
-3.0%
Lagging
SOL-USD (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
-1.4%
Lagging
XRP-USD (2026-08-29)
6/10
-6.3%
Lagging
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +64.40%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.