UST 3y 4.99 +2bpUST 10y (FRED 24 Sep) 5.18 +7bpUST 30y 5.47 +7bpEff. fed funds 3.88 unchUSD broad (weekly 11 Sep) 118.21 VIX spot (eodhd) 14.87 -0.80
MORNING ALPHA

Daily Financial Newsletter

Monday, September 28, 2026 · 09:15:00 · archived issue
EN FR
Read the Full Letter Here Support Morning Alpha
⚠ Data quality : DEGRADED · 13 notes
⚠ Data quality: DEGRADED
yesterday_retrospective — Weekday compact. date_covered is Friday 2026-09-25 (last US cash session). Saturday already recapped Friday; Sunday skipped. GET /movers 400; movers[] omitted. Monday Asia from Yahoo (aggregator history still ends 25 Sep).
market_pulse — US cash tiles still Friday eodhd (SPX 7,743.41). SPX analytics snapshot still prices Thursday 7,704.13 — copied ATH/breadth, used live eodhd 7,743.41. Gold/oil/BTC Monday Yahoo/CoinGecko. DGS10 FRED 5.18 (24 Sep) vs TNX 5.184. DTWEXBGS weekly 118.21 on 11 Sep. Squawk 401. October hike ~64.8% CME FedWatch (GMT8), not aggregator /predictions (probability null).
us_equity_ideas — Screener-first. LLY BUY on 28 Sep JPM PT $1,500 from $1,400 (already held). Widened off SNPS/JCI/DG/COST/SNDK/AAPL/META/ARHS. 13F/insider circuit_open. Did not re-BUY ACN/TLN/LRCX/COIN/HAE/JBHT/LITE/IREN.
eu_equity_ideas — Honest zero. No fresh 48h bulge-bracket EU action after Sunday’s GLEN.L fill. Widened off GLEN/ATE/TTE/KCR/SAN/TUI/GLE/BEZ. eu_fundamentals_gap on the names checked.
penny_plays — screener unavailable or empty for category=penny — fell back to web search; penny universe may not be seeded yet. INO watchlist 5.0 only (PDUFA 30 Oct); no portfolio_target. Did not recycle BFRI/OTLK/PYPD.
forex_rebalancing — squawk-alert feed unavailable (401 missing X-Account-Key). /predictions Manifold probability null — October hike 64.8% from CME FedWatch web (GMT8). EUR crosses from Yahoo after aggregator history n=0.
commodities_outlook — Did not re-BUY SLV/USO/CPER/WEAT/CORN/UNG. COT empty. Yahoo used for % and sparklines. ETF prints still Friday; WTI/gold/copper Monday Yahoo. Yahoo BZ=F 98.33 vs Euronews Brent ~$107 — published WTI $93.50 and noted the Brent gap. New GLD REDUCE (no BUY).
crypto_landscape — Week-to-25 Sep ETF prints from The Block/SoSoValue, not aggregator. BTC-USD/ETH-USD remain known PM 400s — HOLD, no re-BUY. No third asset (anti-repetition vs XRP).
trend_follow — Aggregator /price/history returned empty arrays; Yahoo 1y used for sma50/sma200. 6/18 above sma50. At 5-name cap — skip XLK/QQQ BUY even though rules passed. XLB/XBI EXIT skip restack of Sep 14 PENDING SELL. SMH PENDING SELL leftover skipped — tape is HOLD. XLE RS vs SPY 20d now −0.43; still HOLD above sma50.
risk_top5 — GET /predictions returned Manifold items with probability null — October hike odds 64.8% from CME FedWatch web. Forced-diversity slot is MU 30 Sep earnings (new category vs Sunday labor/NFP).
risk_cover_playbook — Put/call omitted (no Cboe print). Sector pairwise omitted (not stored). MOVE from Yahoo 96. Index breadth from analytics session that still prices Thursday’s 7,704 close. Stock-bond 20d corr +0.66 from Yahoo SPY/TLT. AF /performance all_prices_estimated; sleeve weights from live /positions marks (GLD 24.3 / IEF 9.7 / DBC 21.3 / SPLV 9.4 / cash 35).
portfolio_reality_check — File PORTFOLIO_ID_TECH_US used. LLY add ~2% of cash (0.1587 @ 1183.46). Euro/Penny/AF-perf/Trend/Crypto /positions all_prices_estimated (Commodities 18/19 est; AF positions themselves were live marks). Did not re-BUY ACN/TLN/LRCX/COIN/HAE/JBHT/LITE/IREN/ORSTED/DRX/NXT/EXENS/SOI/GLE/BEZ/META/ARHS/SNDK/AAPL/SAN.MC/DG/COST/KCR.HE/SNPS/JCI/ATE.PA/TTE.PA/GLEN.L/CPER/WEAT/SLV/CORN/UNG/USO/BTC/ETH. HAL/AMZN/SLB/ORCL/ESTC/GAP/HD/RDDT/HOOD/OI/CSCO/UNH/INTC/ADBE/ABNB/CRM/FIVE pending SELLs skipped. XLB/XBI/SMH TF PENDING SELLs skipped. Wednesday AF DBC/GLD SELL + TLT/IEF/SPLV BUY left PENDING — not restacked (book already inside 2pp of inflationary weights). INTC cost-basis outlier — not stop-lossed.
concept_spotlight — Weekday skip — Saturday already ran gold/copper ratio; Pulse named no unused catalog term.
General
GeneralThe Bottom Line 1 minRisk-on cover over a mixed tape: Friday SPX 7,743 still 0.85% off ATH while Monday gold crashed and oil re-priced Hormuz.
THE BOTTOM LINE
RISK-ON=
Risk-on cover over a mixed tape: Friday SPX 7,743 still 0.85% off ATH while Monday gold crashed and oil re-priced Hormuz.
High-yield OAS 2.8 bp
150 bp800 bp
Under 350 bp scores +1. Wider spreads score 0, then −1, then −2.
S&P shares above the 200-day 59.1%
0%100%
Above 65% scores +1. 40–65% scores 0. Under 40% scores −1.
Today's Top Picks
SMH
7.5/10
LLY
7.3/10
USO
7/10
BTC-USD
6.8/10
GLD
6.3/10
Biggest Risk
October FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥4.00–4.25%)
Probability: High • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $202784.80
Blended P&L: +1.34% • 30d Hit Rate: +64.40%
2 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 105 of 163 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 10.7%, average loss -5.7%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 3 minTNX 5.184% and DFF 3.88% still price a tightening Fed (CME hike 64.8%), but Friday VIX 14.87 and HY OAS 2.80 stayed easy; Monday gold −2.88% is the rates leg, not a vol shock.
MARKET PULSE
SPX is still 0.85% under the 7,810 ATH at Friday’s 7,743; Monday gold $4,196.60 (−2.88%) and WTI $93.50 (+1.18%) split the tape while VIX 14.87 and TNX 5.184% stayed mixed.
Mixed tape Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
AITNX 5.184% and DFF 3.88% still price a tightening Fed (CME hike 64.8%), but Friday VIX 14.87 and HY OAS 2.80 stayed easy; Monday gold −2.88% is the rates leg, not a vol shock.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data7,743.41
yday 7,743.41
▲ +0.51%
NASDAQ Data27,068.72
yday 27,068.72
▲ +0.48%
Dow Jones Data51,828.62
yday 51,828.62
▲ +0.93%
Russell 2K Data2,837.55
yday 2,837.55
▲ +0.07%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data4,196.60
yday 4,321.20
▼ -2.88%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data93.50
yday 92.41
▲ +1.18%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data83,074.00
yday 84,497.00
▼ -1.64%
Ethereum Data2,648.35
yday 2,708.94
▼ -1.44%
Rates
10Y Yield Data5.18
yday 5.18
▲ +0.43%
UST 10y (FRED 24 Sep) Data5.18
yday 5.18
+7bp
UST 30y Data5.47
yday 5.47
+7bp
Eff. fed funds Data3.88
yday 3.88
unch
Credit
HY OAS Data2.80
yday 2.80
+7bp
IG OAS Data0.79 pct
yday 0.79 pct
calm
HY−IG spread differential Data2.01 pct
yday 2.01 pct
calm
Volatility
VIX Data14.87
yday 14.87
▼ -5.11%
VIX spot (eodhd) Data14.87
yday 14.87
-0.80
VIX9D/VIX Data0.86 ratio
yday 0.86 ratio
calm
VIX/VIX3M term structure Data0.83 ratio
yday 0.83 ratio
calm
MOVE index Data96.00 index
yday 96.00 index
watch
Dollar & FX
EUR/USD Data1.14
yday 1.14
▲ +0.03%
USD broad (weekly 11 Sep) Data118.21
yday 118.21
—
wk
Breadth
SPY−RSP 5d Data+3.04pp
yday +3.04pp
—
SPY−RSP 21d Data+5.15pp
yday +5.15pp
—
% from 52w Data-0.85%
yday -0.85%
—
Stock-bond 20d correlation (SPY vs TLT) Data0.66 ratio
yday 0.66 ratio
stress
% of S&P 500 above SMA200 Data59.13 pct
yday 59.13 pct
watch
Liquidity
SOFR−fed funds Data0.00 pct
yday 0.00 pct
calm
Initial claims (latest weekly) Data197,000.00 count
yday 197,000.00 count
calm
Cross-asset
Gold/copper ratio (GLD/CPER) Data9.69 ratio
yday 9.69 ratio
calm
Other
UST 3y Data4.99
yday 4.99
+2bp
Cover checks
VIX Data14.87 / 25.00
yday 14.87
Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread Data0.36 / -0.20
yday 0.36 / -0.20
Not Triggered
HY OAS Data2.80 / 5.00
yday 2.80
Not Triggered
SPX drawdown from ATH Data-0.85 / -10.00
yday -0.85 / -10.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AIMonday oil bounce + gold dump does not flip the mix: TNX 5.184%, hike 64.8%, copper $6.66 still above its 50-day and HY OAS a tight 2.80. Own gold + broad commodities; keep long duration at 0.
DataHedge instruments : GLD, TLT, SH, VIXY · Target cash 15%
Sleeve TickerTarget Action
Gold AIGLD25%Hold
Long bonds AITLT0%Exit
Intermediate bonds AIIEF10%Hold
Commodities AIDBC20%Hold
Defensive equity AISPLV10%Hold
Crash hedge AISH0%Exit
Cash AI—35%Hold
If triggered today — do this now AI
• Trim high-beta tech (SMH/XLK) back toward the 50-day
• Add GLD / TLT / SH only if two hard triggers fire
AI0/4 hard triggers fired, but 1 of 11 internals is stress (stock-bond 20d corr +0.66) and 2 are watch (MOVE 96, 59% above SMA200). Gave stays inflationary_boom: TNX 5.184%, hike 64.8%, copper above its 50-day; Monday’s oil bounce and gold crash are the same mix, not a flip to TLT.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 1 minFriday’s cash tape closed SPX 7,743.41 +0.51% with VIX 14.87 while WTI slid to $92.41 (−2.33%) on Tehran’s 7-day Hormuz offer — the last US session before Trump rejected that plan.
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Friday’s cash tape closed SPX 7,743.41 +0.51% with VIX 14.87 while WTI slid to $92.41 (−2.33%) on Tehran’s 7-day Hormuz offer — the last US session before Trump rejected that plan.
Bridge to Today
Monday’s first prints are the Hormuz reprice: WTI $93.50 (+1.18%) while gold crashed to $4,196.60 (−2.88%) as hike odds stayed ~65%.
Stocks
Ideas board
TickerRegionCall Conv. Price1dType
LLYEli Lilly USBUY7.3 1183.46+0.13% Growth
INOInovio PennyWATCH5 1.18-2.48% Penny
StocksUS Equity Ideas 1 minLLY BUY
US EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
LLYNEW Eli Lilly 7.3 +0.13%
LLY  GROWTH BUYNEW
Eli Lilly • Healthcare
7.3/10 Conviction
$1183.46
▲ +0.13%
Treat JPM’s $1,500 PT as the 2–4 week path: add here, don’t chase — Friday $1,183 is still ~21% below the new target with Onswik and GLP-1 share intact.
JPM PT $1,500Friday $1,183 +0.13%Already held 1.9214Onswik FDA 24 SepFILLED 0.1587
Fundamentals
8/10
Sentiment / flow
7/10
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
6.5/10
52-week range
28 Sep: JPMorgan raises LLY PT to $1,500 from $1,400 24 Sep: FDA approves once-weekly basal insulin Onswik (efsitora) FY2025 Simfin: revenue $65.2B, gross margin 83%, operating margin 46%, ROE 78%
Target
$1500.00
Invalidation: JPM cuts the PT or LLY loses the $1,150 weekly close.

TradingView's price for LLY. It is not the last print in this letter.

LLY · 20d illustrative range
LLY illustrative 20-day price cone from 1183.46: 5th pct 1084.02, median 1181.83, 95th pct 1288.47 (vol 18.64% annualised)LLY · 20d illustrative range1071.751148.081224.411300.74Illustrative · vol 18.64% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 1 min
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 minINO WATCH
PENNY PLAYS
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
INONEW Inovio 5 -2.48%
INO  PENNY WATCHNEW
Inovio • Healthcare
5/10 Conviction
$1.18
▼ -2.48%
Scores 5/10 — Oct 30 INO-3107 PDUFA is dated, but cash into late Q1 2027 is a 0/2 balance-sheet score, so this stays watchlist, not a buy.
PDUFA 30 Oct$1.18 −2.5%Runway <12mWatchlist 5.0
Fundamentals
2/10
Sentiment / flow
2/10
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
4/10
52-week range
INO-3107 RRP BLA PDUFA target 30 Oct 2026 (accelerated approval) Late-cycle review and pre-licensure inspections completed (company, Aug/Sep)
Invalidation: CRL, AA ineligibility, or a dilutive raise before PDUFA.

TradingView's price for INO. It is not the last print in this letter.

INO · 20d illustrative range
INO illustrative 20-day price cone from 1.18: 5th pct 0.93, median 1.17, 95th pct 1.47 (vol 49.56% annualised)INO · 20d illustrative range0.91.11.31.5Illustrative · vol 49.56% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 4 min6/18 above sma50. SMH/XLE/XLV HOLD; XLK/QQQ pass BUY but the 5-name cap blocks them; XBI/XLB EXIT stay PENDING, not restacked.
TREND FOLLOW
6/18 above sma50. SMH/XLE/XLV HOLD; XLK/QQQ pass BUY but the 5-name cap blocks them; XBI/XLB EXIT stay PENDING, not restacked.
6 of 18 universe names close above their 50-day (QQQ, XLK, XLE, XLV, XLC, SMH) — same narrow tape as Friday.
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF 7.5 +1.01%
XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR 6 -0.89%
XLV Health Care Select Sector SPDR 6 +0.49%
XBI SPDR S&P Biotech ETF 4 -0.65%
XLB Materials Select Sector SPDR 4 +0.24%
SMH  INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY HOLD 🔥 43-issue streak
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
7.5/10 Conviction
$606.56
▲ +1.01%
Hold the cap name: 606.56 > sma50 565.89 > sma200 493.28 with RS +5.8% — a BUY tape on a name we already own, so HOLD, don’t add.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sStill the clean 50>200 semiconductor trendRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s606.56 > 565.89 > 493.28; RS +5.8%.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
8/10
Yahoo 1y: 606.56 > sma50 565.89 > sma200 493.28, RS vs SPY +5.82% Already held 5.0341 — HOLD at the 5-name cap
Invalidation: Daily close back through $566 sma50.

TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.

SMH · 20d illustrative range
SMH illustrative 20-day price cone from 606.56: 5th pct 539.51, median 605.09, 95th pct 678.64 (vol 24.76% annualised)SMH · 20d illustrative range531.16583.1635.05686.99Illustrative · vol 24.76% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Sources: Yahoo — SMH
XLE  ENERGY HOLD 🔥 43-issue streak
Energy Select Sector SPDR
6/10 Conviction
$62.04
▼ -0.89%
Hold energy: 62.04 still clears sma50 61.76 even with RS −0.43 vs SPY — EXIT only on a close back through the 50-day.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sHormuz premium keeps the energy sleeve livRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s62.04 > sma50 61.76; RS vs SPY −0.43.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
6/10
62.04 > sma50 61.76 > sma200 56.14; RS vs SPY −0.43 Monday WTI $93.50 keeps the energy sleeve
Invalidation: Daily close ≤ sma50 61.76.

TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.

XLE · 20d illustrative range
XLE illustrative 20-day price cone from 62.04: 5th pct 54.52, median 61.86, 95th pct 70.18 (vol 27.24% annualised)XLE · 20d illustrative range53.5859.4365.2771.12Illustrative · vol 27.24% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Sources: Yahoo — USO
XLV  HEALTH CARE HOLD 🔥 42-issue streak
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
6/10 Conviction
$170.70
▲ +0.49%
Hold health: 170.70 > sma50 167.71 > sma200 156.32. RS −0.55 is soft, not an EXIT.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sDefensive trend sleeve still above both MARules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s170.70 > 167.71 > 156.32; RS −0.55.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
7/10
170.70 > sma50 167.71 > sma200 156.32; RS −0.55
Invalidation: Daily close ≤ sma50 167.71.

TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.

XLV · 20d illustrative range
XLV illustrative 20-day price cone from 170.7: 5th pct 165.2, median 170.67, 95th pct 176.32 (vol 7.03% annualised)XLV · 20d illustrative range164.53168.68172.84176.99Illustrative · vol 7.03% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Sources: Yahoo — XLV
XBI  HEALTH CARE EXIT 🔥 42-issue streak
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
4/10 Conviction
$155.03
▼ -0.65%
Mandate EXIT: 155.03 ≤ sma50 157.73. Sep 14 SELL is still PENDING — do not restack.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sBelow the 50-day — rule says EXIT.Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s155.03 ≤ sma50 157.73; RS −7.9%.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
4/10
155.03 ≤ sma50 157.73 — EXIT; Sep 14 PENDING SELL not restacked
Invalidation: Close back above sma50 157.73 would re-qualify.

TradingView's price for XBI. It is not the last print in this letter.

Sources: Yahoo — XBI
XLB  MATERIALS EXIT 🔥 42-issue streak
Materials Select Sector SPDR
4/10 Conviction
$49.80
▲ +0.24%
Mandate EXIT: 49.80 ≤ sma50 51.70. Sep 14 SELL is still PENDING — do not restack.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sBelow the 50-day — rule says EXIT.Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s49.80 ≤ sma50 51.70; RS −6.5%.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
4/10
49.80 ≤ sma50 51.70 — EXIT; Sep 14 PENDING SELL not restacked
Invalidation: Close back above sma50 51.70 would re-qualify.

TradingView's price for XLB. It is not the last print in this letter.

Sources: Yahoo — XLB
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Forex
ForexForex Rebalancing Radar 1 min
FOREX REBALANCING RADAR
Base currency: EUR
Currency vs EUR Short-term Medium-term Long-term
USD 🔥32 SEEK (6) SEEK (4) NEUTRAL (0)
JPY 🔥15 AVOID (-4) AVOID (-3) NEUTRAL (0)
GBP 🔥26 NEUTRAL (0) NEUTRAL (0) NEUTRAL (0)
CHF 🔥23 NEUTRAL (0) NEUTRAL (0) NEUTRAL (0)
SEK 🔥7 AVOID (-3) AVOID (-2) NEUTRAL (0)
Suggested rebalancing actions
INCREASE USD vs EUR — Keep the USD tilt into 28 Oct — 64.8% hike odds and a 5.18% 10-year still pay vs ECB 2.50%.
Conviction 60%
DECREASE JPY vs EUR — Stay light JPY; 157.5 is a dip, not a regime change, with rung-3 Katayama rhetoric live.
Conviction 50%
Crypto
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minBTC $83,074 (−1.64%) and ETH $2,648 (−1.44%) HOLD with the weekly ETF bid still the story — no third asset after widening off XRP.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
BTC $83,074 (−1.64%) and ETH $2,648 (−1.44%) HOLD with the weekly ETF bid still the story — no third asset after widening off XRP.
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
BTC-USD Bitcoin 6.8 -1.64%
ETH-USD Ethereum 6.3 -1.44%
BTC-USD  HOLD 🔥 26-issue streak
Bitcoin
6.8/10 Conviction
$83074.00
▼ -1.64%
Stay long-but-unadded: the $2.4B ETF week still stands, but Monday’s −1.64% and 64.8% hike odds cap a chase into 28 Oct.
On-chain dump not pulled this run.Weekly ETF +$2.4B; YTD flip still the flowSat SoSoValue/The Block weekly print.Hike-odds and gold dump cap a chase into 2Yahoo $83,074 −1.64%; still above sma50 76
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
8/10
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
Week to 25 Sep BTC ETFs +$2.4B; 2026 YTD flipped positive (The Block) Monday Yahoo $83,074 −1.64% vs Sunday $84,458
Invalidation: Weekly close back under $78k.

TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.

undefined · 20d illustrative range
undefined illustrative 20-day price cone from 83074: 5th pct 68740.75, median 82560.4, 95th pct 99158.35 (vol 39.53% annualised)undefined · 20d illustrative range66915.6978271.689627.5100983.41Illustrative · vol 39.53% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
ETH-USD  HOLD 🔥 25-issue streak
Ethereum
6.3/10 Conviction
$2648.35
▼ -1.44%
Hold ETH as a flow satellite: $690M weekly ETF inflows still dwarf Monday’s −1.44% dip — not a new BUY, and ETH-USD remains a known PM 400.
On-chain/L2 TVL not pulled this run.ETH ETFs +$690M on the week.Weekly inflow reversal vs prior outflow.Satellite to BTC flows, not a new tape.Yahoo $2,648 −1.44%; still above sma50 2,4
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
7/10
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
Spot ETH ETFs +$689.9M in the week to 25 Sep after a $140M outflow week Monday Yahoo $2,648.35 −1.44%
Invalidation: Weekly close back under $2,400.

TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.

undefined · 20d illustrative range
undefined illustrative 20-day price cone from 2648.35: 5th pct 2268.01, median 2637.24, 95th pct 3066.57 (vol 32.55% annualised)undefined · 20d illustrative range2220.12518.232816.353114.48Illustrative · vol 32.55% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 4 minMonday WTI $93.50 (+1.18%) confirms the Hormuz premium; gold’s crash through $4,200 flips GLD to REDUCE. UNG and CPER stay holds.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Monday WTI $93.50 (+1.18%) confirms the Hormuz premium; gold’s crash through $4,200 flips GLD to REDUCE. UNG and CPER stay holds.
Gave stays inflationary_boom: TNX 5.184%, hike 64.8%, copper $6.66 still above its 50-day. Oil’s bounce and gold’s rates-driven dump are the same mix, not a…
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
USO WTI crude (USO) 7 -3.11%
GLD Gold (GLD) 6.3 +0.44%
UNG US natural gas (UNG) 6 -3.64%
CPER Copper (CPER) 6 -0.10%
WTI crude (USO)  ENERGY HOLD 🔥 9-issue streak
USO
7/10 Conviction
$148.33
▼ -3.11%
Hold the sleeve, don’t chase: Monday WTI $93.50 (+1.18%) is the first cash confirmation of Saturday’s Hormuz rejection, not a new entry.
Hormuz still closed; physical tightness inCOT positioning not priced this run.Monday WTI +1.18% confirms the rejection.Energy-inflation floor is back on the cashUSO 148.33 Fri; WTI 93.50 above sma50 88.2
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
6/10
28 Sep: WTI $93.50 +1.18% after Trump rejected Iran’s 7-day Hormuz offer Euronews: Brent >$107 early Monday Europe; Yahoo BZ=F 98.33 is the stale print we discarded
Invalidation: WTI holds a close back under $85 with Hormuz shipping normalizing.

TradingView's price for USO. It is not the last print in this letter.

undefined · 20d illustrative range
undefined illustrative 20-day price cone from 148.33: 5th pct 117.95, median 147.01, 95th pct 183.22 (vol 47.52% annualised)undefined · 20d illustrative range114.03138.4162.77187.14Illustrative · vol 47.52% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Gold (GLD)  PRECIOUS METAL REDUCE
GLD
6.3/10 Conviction
$393.41
▲ +0.44%
Reduce, don’t add: Monday gold $4,196.60 (−2.88%) broke $4,200 as 10y 5.18% and ~65% hike odds won the rates trade.
Real-rate bid vs gold; still a disorder heCOT positioning not priced this run.Monday break of $4,200 on hike/yields.Rates trade beat the haven bid this morninGLD 393.41 < sma50 395.4; futures −2.88%.
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
28 Sep: GC=F $4,196.60 −2.88% vs Friday $4,321.20 CME FedWatch October hike 64.8%; TNX 5.184%
Invalidation: Gold reclaims $4,250 with TNX back under 5.00%.

TradingView's price for GLD. It is not the last print in this letter.

undefined · 20d illustrative range
undefined illustrative 20-day price cone from 393.41: 5th pct 365.1, median 393.02, 95th pct 423.07 (vol 15.9% annualised)undefined · 20d illustrative range361.62383.26404.91426.55Illustrative · vol 15.9% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
US natural gas (UNG)  ENERGY HOLD 🔥 5-issue streak
UNG
6/10 Conviction
$11.13
▼ -3.64%
Hold the TCO/Columbia Gas sleeve: Monday NG $3.12 is not a new entry and the 28 Sep FM update is still the watch item, not a BUY.
TCO tightness still the physical story.COT positioning not priced this run.28 Sep Columbia Gas FM is the dated watch.Gas sleeve, not a new chase after Friday’sUNG 11.13 > sma50 10.28; Friday −3.64%.
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
6/10
Columbia Gas FM / TCO update dated 28 Sep still the near-term print UNG Friday 11.13 −3.64%; NG=F Monday 3.12
Invalidation: UNG weekly close back under $10 with TCO flowing normally.

TradingView's price for UNG. It is not the last print in this letter.

undefined · 20d illustrative range
undefined illustrative 20-day price cone from 11.13: 5th pct 8.65, median 11.01, 95th pct 14.02 (vol 52.19% annualised)undefined · 20d illustrative range8.3310.3312.3414.34Illustrative · vol 52.19% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Copper (CPER)  INDUSTRIAL METAL HOLD 🔥 7-issue streak
CPER
6/10 Conviction
$40.61
▼ -0.10%
Hold the industrial sleeve: Monday HG $6.66 is still above its 50-day, so Escondida’s gradual restart does not flip the inflationary-boom copper bid.
Copper still above the 50-day; boom sleeveCOT positioning not priced this run.No new mine shock; Escondida still gradualIndustrial-metal leg of inflationary_boom.CPER 40.61 > sma50 39.68; HG $6.66.
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
HG=F $6.664 above sma50 $6.545 — Gave copper-above-50d still true Escondida restart remains gradual; no new 48h mine shock
Invalidation: Copper daily close under its 50-day with a confirmed Escondida full restart.

TradingView's price for CPER. It is not the last print in this letter.

Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
GeneralTop 5 Risks Right Now 1 min#1 October FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥4.00–4.25%)
TOP 5 RISKS RIGHT NOW
#RiskProbability Impact Trend
1October FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥4.00–4.25%)=HighHighStable
2USD/JPY air-pocket through 159–160 after Tokyo’s reopen=MediumHighStable
3Hormuz offer is dead and oil re-squeezes >$100 WTI=HighHighEscalating
4Crowded agentic-AI/CPU melt-up unwinds on the 5%+ 10y=MediumHighStable
5Micron FQ4 (30 Sep AMC) misses the $50.9B / $31.49 printNEWMediumMediumNew
Watch: FOMC decision 2026-10-28 14:00 ET
GeneralWhat's Coming Up 1 min2026-09-28 — Columbia Gas FM / TCO update (UNG)
WHAT'S COMING UP
2026-09-28 Columbia Gas FM / TCO update (UNG) · commodities_outlook
2026-09-30 Micron FQ4 earnings (AMC) · risk_top5
2026-10-02 US Employment Situation (September) · risk_top5
2026-10-14 US CPI (September) · risk_top5
2026-10-28 FOMC rate decision · risk_top5
2026-10-30 INO-3107 PDUFA (INO watchlist) · penny_plays
Stocks
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 10 min30d hit rate 64%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech US
+2.68%
Commodities
+0.00%
Named holdings. 140 smaller positions (31.08%) are off this picture.
Portfolio allocation: Cash 55.71%, GLD 7.42%, BTC-USD 7.07%, ETH-USD 5.84%, TTE.PA 5.51%, USO 5.41%, ASML.AS 4.84%, XOM 4.18%, DBC 4.04%Cash55.71%GLD7.42%BTC-USD7.07%ETH-USD5.84%TTE.PA5.51%USO5.41%ASML.AS4.84%XOM4.18%DBC4.04%
Tech US
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$102679.70
Cash
$9388.45
P&L
$2679.70 (+2.68%)
Realized P&L
$-3181.65
TWR
+1.79%
Sharpe
0.24
Max DD
-2.39%
Sortino
0.61
Calmar
4.04
Ann. return
+9.67%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions91%
Cash9%
Today's Moves
ActionTickerQtyStatus
BuyLLY0.1587dispatched
Current Holdings
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93$9432.21+10.7%
XOM ×129$20687.51+5.1%
UNH ×8.49$3198.23-11.6%
INTC ×14.08$1731.93-72.0%
MSFT ×11.91$6148.88+26.8%
SBUX ×11.63$1102.86-11.0%
CBRE ×8.29$1115.61-10.0%
AMZN ×5.95$1486.21-7.6%
+53 more holdings
Track Record 35 On Track · 20 Lagging · 11 Stopped Out
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
AAPL (2026-09-23)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
ABNB (2026-09-01)6.5/10-14.1%Stopped Out
ACN (2026-09-20)7/10-2.9%Lagging
ADBE (2026-09-07)6.5/10-11.6%Stopped Out
ADI (2026-08-21)8/10-2.4%Lagging
ALGT (2026-09-14)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
AMAT (2026-08-13)7.5/10+0.0%On Track
AMD (2026-08-31)6.5/10+35.5%On Track
AMZN (2026-08-29)7/10-6.3%Lagging
APH (2026-09-05)7.5/10+1.6%On Track
AVGO (2026-08-22)7/10-7.9%Lagging
COIN (2026-09-19)7.4/10+0.4%On Track
COP (2026-09-14)7.5/10+0.0%On Track
COST (2026-09-25)6.8/10+0.0%On Track
CRM (2026-08-28)8/10-7.2%Lagging
CRWD (2026-09-15)7.1/10+7.1%On Track
CSCO (2026-08-12)7.5/10-11.9%Stopped Out
CVX (2026-09-08)7/10-2.0%Lagging
DELL (2026-09-03)7.5/10+14.4%On Track
DG (2026-09-25)7/10+0.0%On Track
DUOL (2026-09-06)7.5/10-7.1%Lagging
ESI (2026-09-13)6.8/10+0.0%On Track
ESTC (2026-08-29)8/10-11.8%Stopped Out
FIVE (2026-09-06)7.5/10-11.7%Stopped Out
FRO (2026-09-02)7/10+7.7%On Track
GAP (2026-08-30)7/10-7.1%Lagging
GLW (2026-09-09)6.8/10+0.0%On Track
HAE (2026-09-18)6.8/10-2.1%Lagging
HAL (2026-09-03)6.5/10-12.9%Stopped Out
HD (2026-08-19)8/10-13.3%Stopped Out
HOOD (2026-09-04)7/10-4.3%Lagging
INTU (2026-08-26)7/10+0.0%On Track
IREN (2026-09-16)6/10+6.1%On Track
JBHT (2026-09-18)6.5/10-4.8%Lagging
JCI (2026-09-26)7/10+0.0%On Track
JEF (2026-09-10)6.3/10+0.0%On Track
JPM (2026-09-08)6.5/10-4.3%Lagging
LHX (2026-09-15)6/10-3.2%Lagging
LITE (2026-09-17)7/10+2.4%On Track
LLY (2026-09-15)7.1/10+3.6%On Track
LMT (2026-09-15)6.6/10+0.0%On Track
LRCX (2026-09-19)7.4/10+9.4%On Track
MRK (2026-09-10)7.2/10+0.8%On Track
MRVL (2026-08-22)8/10+118.6%On Track
MU (2026-08-15)7.5/10-1.3%Lagging
NAT (2026-08-31)7/10+14.0%On Track
NVDA (2026-08-28)7.5/10-1.3%Lagging
OI (2026-08-24)7/10-18.4%Stopped Out
ORCL (2026-09-11)7.2/10-15.6%Stopped Out
PSX (2026-09-07)7/10+0.3%On Track
QCOM (2026-09-09)7/10+0.0%On Track
RDDT (2026-08-18)7.5/10-13.6%Stopped Out
ROST (2026-08-23)8/10-3.2%Lagging
RTX (2026-09-05)7.5/10-5.7%Lagging
SHEL (2026-08-30)6.5/10+5.4%On Track
SLB (2026-09-01)7/10-14.2%Stopped Out
SNDK (2026-09-23)7.3/10+0.0%On Track
SNOW (2026-09-04)7.5/10-5.8%Lagging
SNPS (2026-09-26)7/10+0.0%On Track
TGT (2026-08-22)7/10-4.0%Lagging
TLN (2026-09-20)6.8/10+4.1%On Track
V (2026-08-25)7/10-5.3%Lagging
VLO (2026-09-02)7/10+7.0%On Track
VRTX (2026-09-13)6.9/10+0.0%On Track
WMT (2026-08-20)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
XOM (2026-08-18)7.5/10+10.8%On Track
Euro Only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$121086.29
Cash
$15612.22
P&L
$21086.29 (+21.09%)
Realized P&L
$-42835.98
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh mark.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702$23967.39—
TTE.PA ×368$27276.04—
UNA.AS ×48.5$2832.95—
RR.L ×101$1460.08—
VIE.PA ×48.5$1430.88—
GLE.PA ×22.15$1755.04—
MNDI.L ×158$1402.26—
NWG.L ×191$1346.17—
+45 more holdings
Track Record 52 On Track · 1 Lagging
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
ABN.AS (2026-08-24)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
ADYEN.AS (2026-09-03)7/10+0.0%On Track
AIR.PA (2026-09-08)7/10+0.0%On Track
ALV.DE (2026-08-29)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
ASML.AS (2026-08-30)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
ATE.PA (2026-09-26)7.3/10+0.0%On Track
BAB.L (2026-09-16)7.3/10+0.0%On Track
BAVA.CO (2026-08-23)7/10+0.0%On Track
BEZ.DE (2026-09-21)7/10+21.9%On Track
BP.L (2026-09-12)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
DEME.BR (2026-08-27)7/10+0.0%On Track
DRX.L (2026-09-18)7/10+0.0%On Track
DTE.DE (2026-09-04)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
ENI.MI (2026-09-02)7/10+0.0%On Track
ENR.DE (2026-09-01)7/10+0.0%On Track
EOAN.DE (2026-08-27)7/10+0.0%On Track
EUROB.AT (2026-09-07)7/10+0.0%On Track
EVD.DE (2026-08-22)7/10+0.0%On Track
EXENS.PA (2026-09-17)7.5/10+4.0%On Track
FGR.PA (2026-08-28)6/10+0.0%On Track
FLS.CO (2026-08-21)6/10+0.0%On Track
GLE.PA (2026-09-21)6.7/10+1.5%On Track
GLEN.L (2026-09-27)6.3/10+0.0%On Track
GSK.L (2026-09-15)7/10+0.0%On Track
INW.MI (2026-08-26)7/10+0.0%On Track
ISP.MI (2026-09-11)6.7/10+0.0%On Track
IVG.MI (2026-09-05)7.5/10+0.0%On Track
KCR.HE (2026-09-25)7.3/10+0.0%On Track
KGX.DE (2026-09-09)7/10+0.0%On Track
KIE.L (2026-09-15)7/10+0.0%On Track
LR.PA (2026-08-31)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
MSLH.L (2026-08-11)6/10+0.0%On Track
MT.AS (2026-09-06)7/10+0.0%On Track
NDX1.DE (2026-09-08)6.8/10+0.0%On Track
NOVN.SW (2026-09-13)6.2/10+0.0%On Track
NSIS-B.CO (2026-08-21)7/10+0.0%On Track
NXT.L (2026-09-18)7.3/10+0.0%On Track
ORSTED.CO (2026-09-19)6.8/10+0.0%On Track
PUB.PA (2026-09-04)7/10+0.0%On Track
REP.MC (2026-09-02)7/10+0.0%On Track
RIO.L (2026-09-10)7/10+0.0%On Track
RWE.DE (2026-09-03)7/10+0.0%On Track
SAN.MC (2026-09-23)7/10+0.0%On Track
SAP.DE (2026-08-30)7/10+0.0%On Track
SHEL.L (2026-08-22)6/10+1.2%On Track
SHL.DE (2026-08-24)7/10+0.0%On Track
SIE.DE (2026-08-29)7/10+0.0%On Track
SOI.PA (2026-09-17)6.8/10-0.5%Lagging
SU.PA (2026-08-31)7/10+0.0%On Track
TEF.MC (2026-09-07)7/10+0.0%On Track
TKA.DE (2026-09-06)7.5/10+0.0%On Track
TTE.PA (2026-09-14)7.3/10+0.0%On Track
VOD.L (2026-09-05)7/10+0.0%On Track
Penny Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh mark.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578$3755.55—
PYPD ×1564$6940.50—
STXS ×2738$3557.21—
Track Record 4 On Track
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
BFRI (2026-09-09)5/10+0.0%On Track
INO (2026-08-24)4.5/10+0.0%On Track
OTLK (2026-09-09)4/10+0.0%On Track
PYPD (2026-08-19)6.5/10+6.1%On Track
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$35000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh mark.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65$25000.00—
IEF ×108$10000.00—
DBC ×654$20000.00—
SPLV ×132$10000.00—
Trend Follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$75717.93
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh mark.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86$5539.52—
SMH ×5.03$2990.61—
XLV ×30.27$5207.77—
XBI ×32$5207.77—
XLB ×93.53$4954.78—
Track Record 5 On Track · 5 Lagging
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
ITA (2026-08-21)4/10-5.8%Lagging
QQQ (2026-09-07)3/10+0.0%On Track
SMH (2026-09-09)4.5/10+0.0%On Track
XBI (2026-08-23)8/10-1.4%Lagging
XLB (2026-08-23)8/10-3.1%Lagging
XLE (2026-08-23)8/10+2.6%On Track
XLF (2026-09-08)6/10+0.0%On Track
XLK (2026-09-08)6/10+0.0%On Track
XLRE (2026-08-20)6.5/10-2.6%Lagging
XLV (2026-08-23)8/10-4.3%Lagging
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100105.10
Cash
$26717.65
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
-15.87
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
+0.00%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions73%
Cash27%
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
USO ×206$26795.83—
GLD ×30.1$11738.20—
CPER ×150$5929.12—
SLV ×93.58$5545.24—
PPLT ×66.63$1111.38—
BNO ×35.14$1850.57—
URA ×23.16$1066.93—
UGA ×26.78$3377.87—
+11 more holdings
Track Record 7 On Track · 15 Lagging · 2 Stopped Out
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
BNO (2026-09-07)7/10+8.0%On Track
CANE (2026-09-06)6.5/10-3.2%Lagging
COPX (2026-09-08)7/10-3.7%Lagging
CORN (2026-08-31)7/10-1.3%Lagging
CPER (2026-09-09)7/10-1.9%Lagging
GDX (2026-09-04)7/10-5.9%Lagging
GLD (2026-08-30)5/10-1.9%Lagging
LIT (2026-08-24)6.5/10-8.0%Lagging
PALL (2026-08-30)4/10-8.1%Stopped Out
PPLT (2026-09-05)7/10-1.1%Lagging
SIL (2026-09-04)6.5/10-6.1%Lagging
SLV (2026-09-01)6.5/10-0.5%Lagging
SLX (2026-09-07)6.5/10-4.4%Lagging
SOYB (2026-08-30)6.5/10+1.8%On Track
UGA (2026-09-06)7/10+9.0%On Track
UNG (2026-09-03)6.5/10+6.4%On Track
UNG (2026-09-15)6.9/10+6.4%On Track
URA (2026-09-05)7/10-9.6%Stopped Out
USO (2026-09-09)6.3/10+6.3%On Track
USO (2026-09-15)7.2/10+6.3%On Track
WEAT (2026-08-30)7.5/10-0.9%Lagging
WEAT (2026-09-17)6.8/10-0.9%Lagging
CPER (2026-09-18)6.8/10-1.9%Lagging
SLV (2026-09-19)7/10-0.5%Lagging
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$32370.73
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh mark.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5510$35015.45—
ETH-USD ×14.91$28949.67—
SOL-USD ×26.81$2795.91—
XRP-USD ×628$868.24—
Track Record 2 On Track · 4 Lagging
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
BTC (2026-08-11)6/10+0.0%On Track
BTC-USD (2026-09-09)7/10-3.0%Lagging
ETH (2026-08-11)5/10+0.0%On Track
ETH-USD (2026-09-09)5.8/10-3.0%Lagging
SOL-USD (2026-08-30)6.5/10-1.4%Lagging
XRP-USD (2026-08-29)6/10-6.3%Lagging
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +64.40%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
PDUFA date
A PDUFA date is the FDA’s target deadline to act on a filed drug or biologic application — not an approval, not a launch, and not a guarantee the agency will even decide that day.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures

General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.

Penny-stock risk: very low-priced, thinly traded securities can be illiquid, volatile and easy to manipulate. Spreads can be wide, exits may be impossible at the quoted price, and you can lose your entire investment. Ideas in this category are diligence starting points, not a buy list.

Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.

Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.

Morning Alpha • Generated Mon, 28 Sep 2026 07:15:00 GMT • info@gmc-works.com