yesterday_retrospective — Europe cash history ends 24 Sep (DAX/CAC/FTSE/Stoxx). Friday US session is complete. Movers route needed index=SPX; AMD's -100% row (close 0) was dropped.
market_pulse — US cash tiles are Friday eodhd (SPX 7,743.41). SPX analytics snapshot still uses 7,704.13 — breadth copied, price tile uses 7,743.41. VIX 15.99 and gold/oil/BTC are Monday prints. VIXCLS FRED lags at 14.21 on 22 Sep. Squawk 401. DTWEXBGS weekly 118.21 on 11 Sep. ^TNX raw print 51.84 scaled to 5.184%. A Monday FMP Russell print was not mixed into the Friday cash row.
us_equity_ideas — Screener returned 311 names. SNX and TFX are outside that S&P screen; they are here because Morgan Stanley and BofA posted dated targets and the screen's top rows had no fresher 48-hour catalyst. /fundamentals derived payloads were empty. 13F/insider not scored.
eu_equity_ideas — eu_fundamentals_gap on KLR.L and CRDA.L. Both sit outside the 27-name EU screen. Aggregator news for KLR.L was empty; the dpa-AFX list is the source. Did not recycle GLEN.L, TTE.PA, ATE.PA, SAN.MC or the other names from the last week.
penny_plays — screener unavailable or empty for category=penny — fell back to web search; penny universe may not be seeded yet. No sub-$5 name cleared the multi-bagger bar without recycling INO. Published zero.
forex_rebalancing — squawk-alert feed unavailable (401). /predictions returned Manifold items with null hike probability; October 64.8% is from the CME FedWatch wrap, not the aggregator. USDJPY history ends 26 Sep at 157.30 while Monday commentary points nearer 158.
commodities_outlook — USO and SLV equity-ETF prints are Friday eodhd; Monday futures (CL=F +1.07% to $93.40, SI=F -4.85% to $61.65) are the live tape and disagree with the ETF day-change. Checked and did not republish GLD, UNG or CPER as the lead cards. Wheat was consolidating without a sharp call.
crypto_landscape — Aggregator /news for BTC-USD and ETH-USD returned 429. Flow figures are from Cointelegraph/SoSoValue. No third asset: SOL and XRP ETF footnotes were smaller and XRP was already used on 23 Sep.
trend_follow — QQQ history returned 16 bars, short of a 200-day average, so QQQ was not scored. Other sleeves priced through 25 Sep.
risk_top5 — VIX9D and MOVE did not price. No equity put/call series on the aggregator. HY and IG OAS are FRED through 24 Sep. Credit is the forced new category versus the prior issue.
risk_cover_playbook — Same missing VIX9D/MOVE/put-call inputs. Anti-fragile weights are the inflationary-boom table; drift versus cost-basis marks is inside 2 points so no rebalance trade was sent. TLT and SH were already flat.
portfolio_reality_check — Euro, penny, anti-fragile, trend, commodities and crypto positions came back price_estimated on the post-fill read. Tech stops use live unrealized P&L. Hit rate uses reviewed picks with a computable return since 2026-08-29 only. Performance and positions were re-read after the fills that did land.
portfolio_reality_check — Stop and trend exits were not sent for UNH, INTC, AMZN, CSCO, RDDT, HD, OI, CRM, ESTC, SLB, HAL, DUOL, FIVE, ADBE, ORCL, XBI, XLB: HTTP 400, pending orders already reserve the full quantity.
October FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥4.00–4.25%)
Probability: High • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $102493.41
Blended P&L: +2.49% • 30d Hit Rate: +37.00%
1 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 33 of 72 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 15.4%, average loss -9.6%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 3 minDGS10 is 5.18% (+7bp vs 23 Sep) and Monday VIX is 15.99, up 1.12 points from Friday's 14.87, while SPX breadth is only 47.0% advancing and 44.9% above the 50-day. Weekly DTWEXBGS is 118.21…
MARKET PULSE
Friday's S&P 500 closed at 7,743.41, 0.85% under the 7,810.01 high, with only 44.9% of the screened book above its 50-day. Monday's live VIX is 15.99 and the 10-year is 5.18% — tightening, not broad risk-on.
Tightening Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
AIDGS10 is 5.18% (+7bp vs 23 Sep) and Monday VIX is 15.99, up 1.12 points from Friday's 14.87, while SPX breadth is only 47.0% advancing and 44.9% above the 50-day. Weekly DTWEXBGS is 118.21 (11 Sep) and is not a same-day dollar print. HY OAS is 2.80 vs IG 0.79.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,743.41
yday 7,743.41
▲ +0.51%
NASDAQ Data
27,068.72
yday 27,068.72
▲ +0.48%
Dow Jones Data
51,828.62
yday 51,828.62
▲ +0.93%
Russell 2K Data
2,837.55
yday 2,837.55
▲ +0.07%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
4,201.30
yday 4,321.20
▼ -2.77%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data
93.40
yday 92.41
▲ +1.07%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
83,132.00
yday 84,497.00
▼ -1.62%
Ethereum Data
2,646.51
yday 2,708.94
▼ -2.30%
Rates
10Y Yield Data
5.18
yday 5.18
▲ +0.43%
UST 10y Data
5.18
yday 5.18
+7bp
UST 30y Data
5.47
yday 5.47
+7bp
Effective fed funds Data
3.88
yday 3.88
unch
Credit
HY OAS Data
2.80
yday 2.80
+7bp
IG OAS Data
0.79 percent
yday 0.79 pct
calm
HY-IG spread differential Data
2.01 percentage points
watch
Volatility
VIX Data
15.99
yday 14.87
▲ +7.53%
VIX (live eodhd; FRED lags 22 Sep) Data
15.99
yday 14.87
+1.12
VIX/VIX3M term structure Data
0.89 ratio
yday 0.83 ratio
calm
Dollar & FX
EUR/USD Data
1.14
yday 1.14
▼ -0.14%
Broad USD (weekly) Data
118.21
yday 118.21
+0.13
wk
Dollar index spot Data
101.19 index
watch
Breadth
SPY−RSP 5d Data
+3.04pp
yday +3.04pp
—
SPY−RSP 21d Data
+5.15pp
yday +5.15pp
—
% from 52w Data
-1.36%
yday -0.85%
—
Stock-bond 20d correlation (SPY vs TLT) Data
0.44 ratio
yday 0.66 ratio
stress
% of screened S&P names above the 200-day Data
59.13 percent
watch
Liquidity
SOFR minus effective fed funds Data
0.00 percentage points
calm
Initial claims, latest week Data
197,000.00 persons
calm
Cross-asset
Gold futures / copper futures Data
630.00 ratio
watch
Other
UST 3y Data
4.99
yday 4.99
+2bp
Cover checks
VIX Data
15.99 / 25.00
yday 14.87
Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread Data
0.36 / -0.20
yday 0.36 / -0.20
Not Triggered
HY OAS Data
2.80 / 5.00
yday 2.80
Not Triggered
SPX drawdown from ATH Data
-0.85 / -10.00
yday -0.85 / -10.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AIGrowth is not broken — claims are 197k and Manifold's US-recession contract is about 7.5% — while oil is bid and the 10-year is 5.18%. That is an inflationary boom mix: own real assets and a short duration sleeve, not long bonds. Monday's metal dump is the hike tax inside that qu
• Cut the new XLK add and any high-beta tech first.
• Let the Anti-Fragile book move 10 points onto SH from cash if two hard triggers fire.
AI0 of 4 hard triggers are fired, so the regime stays risk-on. 1 internals are stress, 5 are watch, 4 are calm — the watch list is the 5.18% 10-year, Monday's metal dump, and a HY OAS that is only 7bp wider. Today's named risks are the October hike, a dead Hormuz offer, and a rung-3 yen warning.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 1 minFriday's Dow rose 0.93% to 51,828.62 because a reported Iran plan to reopen Hormuz knocked crude lower and released beaten-up cyclicals. XLI gained 0.95% while XLE fell 0.89%.
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Ticker
1d
GNRC
Generac Holdings Inc.
+18.5%
CRWD
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.
+13.8%
COIN
Coinbase Global, Inc.
+11.7%
PSX
Phillips 66
+9.2%
FLEX
Flex Ltd.
+7.2%
Friday's Dow rose 0.93% to 51,828.62 because a reported Iran plan to reopen Hormuz knocked crude lower and released beaten-up cyclicals. XLI gained 0.95% while XLE fell 0.89%.
GNRC
+18.46%
CRWD
+13.85%
COIN
+11.66%
PSX
+9.19%
FLEX
+7.19%
Bridge to Today
Monday has already faded that oil dip, with WTI back at $93.40, so the test is whether Friday's cyclical bid survives a dead reopen offer.
GeneralConcept of the Day 1 minWhat high-yield OAS is actually measuring
CONCEPT OF THE DAY
What high-yield OAS is actually measuring
Why today : The tape shows HY OAS at 2.80 versus 2.73 on the prior print, still far from a stress line, which is why credit is a breadth watch and not a hard trigger.
HY OAS is the extra yield investors demand to own high-yield corporate bonds instead of Treasuries of a similar maturity. A wider number means the market wants more pay for default and liquidity risk. A tighter number means credit is comfortable. It is not a stock-market forecast. Credit can stay calm while equities wobble, and it can widen before stocks notice. Read it against its own recent range and against investment-grade spreads. If high-yield widens and investment-grade does not, the market is sorting by quality. If both blow out together, that is funding stress. The next time this newsletter prints a HY OAS tile, compare it with the prior print and with the 10-year yield. One number is not a crash signal.
Over the next quarter expect TD Synnex to re-rate toward Morgan Stanley's $359 target if Hyve's hyperscaler ramp keeps the fourth quarter above the Street.
MS PT $359Q3 beat 13-21%Hyve billings +117%
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
—
28 Sep: Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $359 from $334 and kept Overweight, calling SNX its most favored enterprise-hardware name.Fiscal Q3 revenue and EPS beat consensus by 13–21%; Q4 guidance was 12–25% above the Street.Hyve gross billings +117% year on year; distribution gross billings +27%.
Target
$359.00
Invalidation: Q4 guide slips back to the Street or Hyve billings stall.
TradingView's price for SNX. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next two quarters expect Teleflex to re-rate toward BofA's $158 target if new management delivers the first clean 2027 growth year it is underwriting.
BofA Buy, PT $158~11x FY27 EPS
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
—
27 Sep: BofA upgraded Teleflex to Buy from Neutral and raised its target to $158 from $145.BofA's FY27 EPS case is $11.25, versus a Street figure it cites near $10.98, and a Q3 tariff-refund EPS tailwind.
Mkt Cap
$5.2B
Target
$158.00
Invalidation: FY27 EPS case falls back through $11 on the next update.
TradingView's price for TFX. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 5 minOnly technology still clears a fresh entry: XLK is above both averages with a positive 20-day gap vs SPY. Biotech and materials are through their 50-day and come off the book.
TREND FOLLOW
Only technology still clears a fresh entry: XLK is above both averages with a positive 20-day gap vs SPY. Biotech and materials are through their 50-day and come off the book.
5 of 17 priced universe names closed above their 50-day (QQQ history was too short to score). The only new BUY is XLK; SMH already holds the semiconductor…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
XLK
Technology Select Sector SPDR
6.3
+0.80%
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
6.3
-0.15%
XLV
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
5.3
+0.49%
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR
5.3
-0.89%
XBI
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
3.3
-4.23%
XLB
Materials Select Sector SPDR
3.3
+0.24%
XLKINFORMATION TECHNOLOGYBUY
Technology Select Sector SPDR
6.3/10Conviction
$196.27
▲ +0.80%
Over the next 2–4 weeks add tech beta only while XLK holds its 50-day; relative strength vs SPY is the signal, not another semiconductor headline.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sFriday IT leadership; PHLX semis were up oTech is the only fresh add; SMH already owClose above a rising 50-day and 200-day; R
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
7/10
Friday XLK +0.80% and still the strongest 20-day RS in the passing set.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$183.46).
TradingView's price for XLK. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 2–4 weeks keep the existing SMH line while it holds the 50-day; do not add a second semiconductor sleeve on top of a new XLK buy.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sFriday semiconductor tape did the work; noHeld sleeve. Rules say stay, not add a secStill well above the 50-day; 20-day RS vs
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
7/10
SMH 20-day RS vs SPY is +1.9% and the close is still far above $570.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$570).
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
Keep the health-care line: it is above both averages, but the RS edge versus SPY is too small to add.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sFriday health-care tape was +0.5%, not a fDefensive bid is intact; it is not leadingAbove both averages, but 20-day RS vs SPY
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
6/10
Friday XLV +0.49%; 20-day RS vs SPY only +1.2%.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$165.74).
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
Hold XLE while it stays above the 50-day. Monday's WTI bounce does not restore a positive 20-day gap versus SPY.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sMonday WTI bounce does not repair a failedHeld energy beta. Exit only on a close thrStill above the 50-day, but 20-day RS vs S
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
5/10
WTI futures $93.40 on the Hormuz rejection; XLE 20-day RS vs SPY is -1.9%.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$59.88).
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
Exit biotech: Friday's close is through the 50-day. The trend rule does not wait for an -8% stop.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo dated biotech catalyst offsets the brokHeld name. The mandate is to exit, not to Friday close $155.03 is through the 50-day
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
3/10
Technicals
3/10
XBI -4.23% on Friday to $155.03, below the $157.52 50-day.
Invalidation: Already triggered: close is through the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XBI. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLBMATERIALSEXIT🔥 43-issue streak
Materials Select Sector SPDR
3.3/10Conviction
$49.80
▲ +0.24%
Exit materials: the close is below the 50-day and Monday copper futures fell another 1.4%.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sMonday copper futures -1.4% agree with a bHeld name. China profit growth cooled; theClose $49.80 is below the 50-day at $51.56
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
3/10
Technicals
3/10
XLB $49.80 vs 50-day $51.56; HG=F -1.44% Monday.
Invalidation: Already triggered: close is through the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XLB. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minUS spot bitcoin ETFs took in $2.39 billion last week, the best week since October 2025, and ether ETFs added about $690 million. Price is not confirming it yet: BTC is $83,132 (-1.6%) and E…
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $2.39 billion last week, the best week since October 2025, and ether ETFs added about $690 million. Price is not confirming it yet: BTC is $83,132 (-1.6%) and ETH is $2,647 (-2.3%). Hold, don't chase.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
6.2
-1.62%
ETH-USD
Ethereum
5.5
-2.30%
BTC-USDHOLD🔥 27-issue streak
Bitcoin
6.2/10Conviction
$83132.00
▼ -1.62%
Over the next two weeks hold bitcoin: a $2.39B ETF week is the flow, but Monday's slip to $83,132 says the chase already happened above $87,100.
No protocol cash-flow metric used for BTC.Spot ETFs +$2.39B on the week; Friday stilInflows slowed as BTC backed off above $87YTD ETF flows flipped positive after July'BTC $83,132, -1.62% Monday, still under th
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
8/10
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
Week ending 25 Sep: spot bitcoin ETFs +$2.39B, Friday still +$134.5M.Price has already come off above $87,100; Monday print is $83,132.
Invalidation: Weekly close under $78,000 or a full week of ETF outflows.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next two weeks hold ether: about $690M of ETF inflows help, but Monday's -2.3% to $2,647 is still lagging bitcoin's tape.
No protocol cash-flow metric used for ETH.Spot ETH ETFs about +$690M last week, SoSoInflows positive but smaller than BTC and ETHA led the ETH complex; demand is not BTETH $2,646.51, -2.30% Monday, lagging BTC.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
7/10
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
4/10
Spot ether ETFs about +$690M last week.Monday price $2,646.51, -2.3%, still lagging bitcoin.
Invalidation: ETH loses $2,400 on a daily close while ETF flows flip negative.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 3 minHold the oil proxy: Monday's WTI bounce to $93.40 says Friday's Hormuz-hope selloff is being faded. Cut silver exposure — futures are down 4.85% to $61.65 with the 10-year at 5.18%.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Hold the oil proxy: Monday's WTI bounce to $93.40 says Friday's Hormuz-hope selloff is being faded. Cut silver exposure — futures are down 4.85% to $61.65 with the 10-year at 5.18%.
Monday's split is a hike-and-oil tape, not a growth boom: WTI futures are back to $93.40 after Friday's reopen report, while silver futures fell 4.85% to…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
USO
WTI crude (USO)
6.5
-3.11%
SLV
Silver (SLV)
5.5
+0.90%
WTI crude (USO)ENERGYHOLD🔥 10-issue streak
USO
6.5/10Conviction
$148.33
▼ -3.11%
Over the next week stay with WTI exposure: Trump's rejection of Iran's Hormuz offer has already faded Friday's reopen-hope dip, with futures back at $93.40.
Hormuz still shut after Monday's rejected No COT or positioning print priced today.Trump rejected Iran's Hormuz proposal; WTIFriday's reopen-hope dip is being faded, nUSO still Friday $148.33, -3.11%; futures
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
28 Sep: Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen Hormuz; Brent was quoted near $105.64 and WTI futures at $93.40.25 Sep: the reopen report had knocked crude and USO closed -3.11% — that dip is what Monday faded.
Invalidation: WTI settles back under $90 and stays there this week.
TradingView's price for USO. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next week reduce silver: futures are down 4.85% to $61.65 as a 64.8% October hike odds and a 5.18% 10-year tax non-yielding metal into Friday's jobs report.
DGS10 5.18% and a 64.8% October hike odds No COT or ETF-flow print for silver today.Silver futures -4.85% Monday to $61.65.NFP Friday is the next two-way test, not aSLV print is still Friday +0.9%; futures a
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
4/10
28 Sep: silver futures fell 4.85% to $61.65 at the weekly open.October Fed hike odds 64.8% (CME FedWatch via GMT8) with DGS10 at 5.18%.Friday 2 Oct US jobs report is the next check on whether the metal dump sticks.
Invalidation: Silver futures reclaim $66 before Friday's jobs report.
TradingView's price for SLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 8 min30d hit rate 37%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech US
+2.49%
Named holdings. 142 smaller positions (31.68%) are off this picture.
Tech US
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$102493.41
Cash
$11265.28
P&L
$2493.41 (+2.49%)
Realized P&L
$-3513.78
TWR
+1.79%
Sharpe
0.22
Max DD
-2.39%
Sortino
0.57
Calmar
3.93
Ann. return
+9.39%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions89%
Cash11%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
SNX
0.6996
dispatched
Buy
TFX
1.51
dispatched
Sell
UNH
8.49
—
Sell
INTC
14.08
—
Sell
SBUX
11.63
dispatched
Sell
CBRE
8.29
dispatched
Sell
AMZN
5.95
—
Sell
CSCO
21.7
—
Sell
RDDT
12.88
—
Sell
HD
8.14
—
Sell
OI
66.09
—
Sell
CRM
1.76
—
Sell
ESTC
4.27
—
Sell
SLB
12.9
—
Sell
HAL
53.7
—
Sell
SNOW
0.8006
dispatched
Sell
DUOL
1.83
—
Sell
FIVE
1.12
—
Sell
ADBE
1.02
—
Sell
ORCL
1.54
—
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$9353.09
+9.7%
XOM ×129
$20981.22
+6.6%
UNH ×8.49
$3207.15
-11.4%
INTC ×14.08
$1664.62
-73.1%
MSFT ×11.91
$6042.14
+24.6%
AMZN ×5.95
$1461.81
-9.1%
CVX ×7.29
$1507.67
+4.0%
FRO ×38.46
$1876.44
+20.7%
+52 more holdings
Track Record
27 On Track · 15 Lagging · 18 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
TSM (2026-07-19)
7/10
+10.0%
On Track
XOM (2026-07-19)
8/10
+6.6%
On Track
UNH (2026-07-19)
6.5/10
-11.7%
Stopped Out
INTC (2026-07-24)
7.5/10
-73.0%
Stopped Out
MSFT (2026-07-28)
6.5/10
+23.7%
On Track
SBUX (2026-07-30)
7.5/10
-11.8%
Stopped Out
CBRE (2026-07-30)
7/10
-12.8%
Stopped Out
AMZN (2026-07-31)
8/10
-9.2%
Stopped Out
CVX (2026-08-01)
7/10
+3.9%
On Track
FRO (2026-08-02)
7/10
+19.8%
On Track
PLTR (2026-08-03)
6.5/10
+1.3%
On Track
MRVL (2026-08-05)
7/10
+153.3%
On Track
LLY (2026-08-06)
8/10
+0.9%
On Track
ELF (2026-08-06)
6.5/10
+13.6%
On Track
ABNB (2026-08-07)
7.5/10
-6.0%
Lagging
TWLO (2026-08-07)
7/10
+40.9%
On Track
BRK-B (2026-08-10)
7.5/10
-3.4%
Lagging
CSCO (2026-08-10)
7/10
-11.8%
Stopped Out
MU (2026-08-13)
7.5/10
+13.8%
On Track
RDDT (2026-08-15)
8/10
-15.4%
Stopped Out
HD (2026-08-17)
7.5/10
-14.2%
Stopped Out
VLO (2026-08-18)
7/10
+10.0%
On Track
TGT (2026-08-20)
7.5/10
-1.9%
Lagging
MRK (2026-08-20)
7/10
-2.4%
Lagging
ADI (2026-08-21)
8/10
+5.8%
On Track
ROST (2026-08-21)
7/10
+1.7%
On Track
AVGO (2026-08-22)
7/10
-4.4%
Lagging
NVDA (2026-08-06)
7.5/10
+7.4%
On Track
AMD (2026-08-03)
7/10
+32.2%
On Track
OI (2026-08-24)
7/10
-20.5%
Stopped Out
V (2026-08-25)
7/10
-3.6%
Lagging
CRWD (2026-08-27)
8/10
+21.4%
On Track
CRM (2026-08-28)
8/10
-11.8%
Stopped Out
ESTC (2026-08-29)
8/10
-14.0%
Stopped Out
GAP (2026-08-30)
7/10
-5.9%
Lagging
SHEL (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
+6.7%
On Track
NAT (2026-08-31)
7/10
+15.4%
On Track
SLB (2026-09-01)
7/10
-14.6%
Stopped Out
DELL (2026-09-03)
7.5/10
+10.8%
On Track
HAL (2026-09-03)
6.5/10
-13.6%
Stopped Out
SNOW (2026-09-04)
7.5/10
-9.3%
Stopped Out
HOOD (2026-09-04)
7/10
-4.5%
Lagging
RTX (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
-6.4%
Lagging
APH (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
+2.2%
On Track
DUOL (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
-10.7%
Stopped Out
FIVE (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
-10.8%
Stopped Out
PSX (2026-09-07)
7/10
+0.2%
On Track
ADBE (2026-09-07)
6.5/10
-15.2%
Stopped Out
JPM (2026-09-08)
6.5/10
-5.2%
Lagging
ORCL (2026-09-11)
7.2/10
-17.7%
Stopped Out
LHX (2026-09-15)
6/10
-4.2%
Lagging
IREN (2026-09-16)
6/10
+5.4%
On Track
LITE (2026-09-17)
7/10
+0.8%
On Track
HAE (2026-09-18)
6.8/10
-1.5%
Lagging
JBHT (2026-09-18)
6.5/10
-4.9%
Lagging
LRCX (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
+9.4%
On Track
COIN (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
+0.8%
On Track
ACN (2026-09-20)
7/10
-4.4%
Lagging
TLN (2026-09-20)
6.8/10
+2.0%
On Track
SNPS (2026-09-26)
7/10
-1.0%
Lagging
Euro Only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$121086.29
Cash
$14987.73
P&L
$21086.29 (+21.09%)
Realized P&L
$-42835.98
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
KLR.L
8.12
dispatched
Buy
CRDA.L
8.29
dispatched
Current Holdings
⚠ Live marks on this book came back estimated at cost, so unrealized P&L is not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702
$23967.39
—
TTE.PA ×368
$27276.04
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
—
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
—
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
—
GLE.PA ×22.15
$1755.04
—
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
—
NWG.L ×191
$1346.17
—
+47 more holdings
Penny Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live marks on this book came back estimated at cost, so unrealized P&L is not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578
$3755.55
—
PYPD ×1564
$6940.50
—
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
—
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$35000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live marks on this book came back estimated at cost, so unrealized P&L is not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65
$25000.00
—
IEF ×108
$10000.00
—
DBC ×654
$20000.00
—
SPLV ×132
$10000.00
—
Track Record
1 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
GLD (2026-08-03)
6.5/10
-3.0%
Lagging
Trend Follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$105095.32
Cash
$73446.40
P&L
$5095.32 (+5.10%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Sell
XBI
32
—
Sell
XLB
93.53
—
Buy
XLK
11.57
dispatched
Current Holdings
⚠ Live marks on this book came back estimated at cost, so unrealized P&L is not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86
$5539.52
—
XLK ×11.57
$7748.48
—
SMH ×5.03
$2990.61
—
XLV ×30.27
$5207.77
—
XBI ×32
$5207.77
—
XLB ×93.53
$4954.78
—
Track Record
1 On Track · 4 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
XLE (2026-08-18)
8/10
-1.6%
Lagging
SMH (2026-08-18)
6.5/10
+2.1%
On Track
XLV (2026-08-19)
8/10
-0.8%
Lagging
XBI (2026-08-19)
6.5/10
-4.7%
Lagging
XLB (2026-08-19)
6.5/10
-6.0%
Lagging
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$26717.65
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live marks on this book came back estimated at cost, so unrealized P&L is not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×206
$26795.83
—
GLD ×30.1
$11738.20
—
CPER ×150
$5929.12
—
SLV ×93.58
$5545.24
—
PPLT ×66.63
$1111.38
—
BNO ×35.14
$1850.57
—
URA ×23.16
$1066.93
—
UGA ×26.78
$3377.87
—
+11 more holdings
Track Record
3 On Track · 1 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
USO (2026-08-11)
6.5/10
+14.1%
On Track
GLD (2026-08-03)
6.5/10
+0.9%
On Track
CPER (2026-08-18)
7/10
+3.0%
On Track
SLV (2026-08-06)
6.5/10
-1.9%
Lagging
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$32370.73
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live marks on this book came back estimated at cost, so unrealized P&L is not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5510
$35015.45
—
ETH-USD ×14.91
$28949.67
—
SOL-USD ×26.81
$2795.91
—
XRP-USD ×628
$868.24
—
Track Record
2 On Track
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BTC-USD (2026-08-18)
6.5/10
+30.8%
On Track
ETH-USD (2026-08-20)
7/10
+36.3%
On Track
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +37.00%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
HY OAS
HY OAS is the extra yield investors demand to own high-yield corporate bonds instead of Treasuries of a similar maturity.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.