market_pulse — FRED rate and credit tiles are behind Tuesday's cash close: DGS10 is 25 Sep at 5.17 and HY OAS is 25 Sep at 293bp. Breadth is the 25 Sep snapshot. The VIX tile and the S&P 500 tile are the 29 Sep closes (16.04 and 7670.84). ^TNX close was null, so the 10-year is left off the index band rather than using the 5.293 session high.
market_pulse — pulse_ready.json had no index_ladder and no event_radar. calendar.json economic events were empty. Both blocks are omitted.
yesterday_retrospective — KOSPI close 6,870.81 matches the Korea Herald, but aggregator history implied -2.97% off a prior close of 7,080.92. The Herald's -18.93 points (-0.27%) is the session change used.
yesterday_retrospective — DAX, CAC and FTSE histories stop on 28 Sep and Stoxx on 24 Sep. Europe is omitted from the regional sequence. Movers cache is dated 25 Sep and was not used.
yesterday_retrospective — Sector ETF histories stop on 28 Sep, so Tuesday's sector table is not taken from the aggregator. No sector-rotation percentages were published.
forex_rebalancing — Squawk routes returned 401. EUR-cross histories mostly stop on 25-26 Sep. EURUSD spot 1.13607 is the 29 Sep price print. Same-day yen rhetoric is from wire copy.
us_equity_ideas — /news/JNJ did not surface the 29 Sep BofA target change. The catalyst is the web report. JNJ history skipped 26-28 Sep, so the -1.35% change is versus the 25 Sep close.
us_equity_ideas — Tech US portfolio performance returned total_value 0 and cash_value 0, so the JNJ idea was not sized into a paper buy.
eu_equity_ideas — Screener category=eu returned 27 names dated 25 Sep. None had a company-specific catalyst inside 48 hours that cleared the bar. Published zero ideas.
penny_plays — Screener category=penny returned an empty universe. No name cleared a cited Multi-Bagger score of 6, and none was forced onto the watchlist.
commodities_outlook — USO, GLD and the grain ETFs last printed 28 Sep. CL=F and GC=F did print 29 Sep (93.84, +0.47%; 4,173.20, -0.67%). Gold and wheat were researched and did not clear the score bar.
trend_follow — QQQ history has only 17 sessions, so SMA50 and SMA200 were not computed and QQQ was not ranked. Sector ETF bars used here are dated 28 Sep.
trend_follow — XBI and XLB are exits, but Portfolio Manager already has pending SELLs larger than the live lots. No second sell was sent.
risk_cover_playbook — Equity put/call and the MOVE index were not on a priced endpoint this run. Those internals rows are omitted.
portfolio_reality_check — Euro, Penny, Anti-Fragile, Trend, Commodities and Crypto positions came back price_estimated. Returns in picks_reviewed use aggregator history versus average entry, not the missing live mark.
trend_follow — SMH still passes the trend rule and is a hold, but a full-lot SELL submitted on 14 Sep is still pending. This run did not cancel it and did not add a second sell.
commodities_outlook — LIT was sold this run at -10.9% versus the -8% rule. The order is pending because the US market was closed. URA and PALL were already pending from 20 Sep, so no second sell was sent.
portfolio_reality_check — London listings were quoted in pence against a pound average cost. Those returns were rescaled by 100 before the verdict. ORSTED.CO, and any other name whose history and average cost were not in the same unit, was left out of picks_reviewed.
Above +50 bp scores +1. Between 0 and +50 scores 0. Below 0 scores −1.
Today's Top Picks
USO
7/10
XLK
6.7/10
XLV
6.3/10
JNJ
6.2/10
Biggest Risk
October FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥4.00–4.25%)
Probability: High • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: N/A
Blended P&L: N/A • 30d Hit Rate: +36.10%
Blended P&L withheld: none of the 7 books has a live quote that agrees with its time-weighted return. Hit rate is 22 of 61 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 9.2%, average loss -7.2%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 7 minThe 10-year is 5.17 (-1bp, print dated 25 Sep) and the 2-year is 4.92 (+11bp, 28 Sep), with HY OAS at 293bp (+13bp). VIX is 16.04 (-0.03 pts) and SPY beat RSP by 0.39pp, so the engine's con…
MARKET PULSE
Tuesday's S&P 500 close is 7670.84, down 0.17%, and only 44.92% of members are above the short-term average. That breadth gap is the part of the tape the yield tiles do not show.
Tightening constructive +1 Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
AIThe 10-year is 5.17 (-1bp, print dated 25 Sep) and the 2-year is 4.92 (+11bp, 28 Sep), with HY OAS at 293bp (+13bp). VIX is 16.04 (-0.03 pts) and SPY beat RSP by 0.39pp, so the engine's constructive score sits on a tightening, concentrated tape.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,670.84
yday 7,683.69
▼ -0.17%
NASDAQ Data
26,797.54
yday 26,820.38
▼ -0.09%
Dow Jones Data
51,349.92
yday 51,481.51
▼ -0.26%
Russell 2K Data
2,807.92
yday 2,817.91
▼ -0.35%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
4,173.20
yday 4,155.40
▼ -0.67%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data
93.84
yday 93.84
▲ +0.47%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
83,837.00
yday 83,837.00
▲ +0.85%
Ether Data
2,693.21
yday 2,693.21
▲ +1.76%
Rates
US 2Y Data
4.92
+11bp
US 10Y Data
5.17
yday 5.24
-1bp
US 30Y Data
5.49
+2bp
2s10s spread Data
32.00
yday 0.36 / -0.20
-4bp
10Y-3M spread Data
101.00
+5bp
Credit
US HY OAS Data
293.00
yday 2.93
+13bp
Baa-10Y spread Data
146.00
+7bp
IG OAS Data
81.00 bp
yday 0.81 percent
calm
Volatility
VIX Data
16.04
yday 16.07
-0.03 (-0.2%)
VIX9D / VIX Data
0.90 ratio
calm
VIX / VIX3M Data
0.88 ratio
calm
Dollar & FX
US Dollar Index (DXY) Data
101.28
+0.09 (+0.1%)
EUR/USD Data
1.14
yday 1.14
▼ -0.27%
Dollar index 5-session change Data
1.05 pct
yday 1.05 percent
watch
Breadth
% > 50d Data
44.9%
—
% > 200d Data
59.1%
—
Adv / Dec Data
201 / 220
—
New hi / lo Data
37 / 17
—
SPY−RSP 1d Data
0.4pp
—
SPY−RSP 5d Data
+3.04pp
yday +3.04pp
—
SPY−RSP 21d Data
+5.15pp
yday +5.15pp
—
% from 52w Data
-1.36%
yday -1.36%
—
Stock-bond 20-session correlation (SPY vs TLT) Data
0.42 ratio
stress
S&P 500 members above the 200-day Data
59.13 pct
watch
Liquidity
SOFR minus effective fed funds Data
2.00 bp
yday 0.02 percent
calm
Initial claims Data
197,000.00 persons
calm
Cross-asset
Average pairwise 20-session correlation of 11 SPDR sectors Data
0.11 ratio
calm
Gold/copper ratio (GLD / CPER) Data
9.52 ratio
watch
Cover checks
VIX Data
16.04 / 25.00
yday 16.07
Not Triggered
2s10s spread (bp) Data
32.00 / -20.00
Not Triggered
HY OAS (bp) Data
293.00 / 500.00
Not Triggered
SPX drawdown from ATH (%) Data
-1.78 / -10.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AIGrowth is still up: claims are 197,000 and HY OAS is 293bp, while the S&P 500 is only 1.78% under its high. Inflation is up with it: WTI is 93.84, the 10-year breakeven is 2.35, and Tuesday's 30-year hit 5.6206%. That is an inflationary boom, so long duration stays at zero and th
• Cut the trend book's tech add and do not replace it
• Raise cash before adding duration, because this quadrant still zeros TLT
AIZero of four hard triggers are fired, so the regime stays risk-on. One internals row is in stress: the 20-session SPY/TLT correlation is +0.42, so bonds are not cushioning equities. Four rows are on watch, led by breadth at 44.92% above the 50-day. That is a tightening tape, not a crash. The named risks are the October hike, Hormuz, and the yen disclosure on 30 Sep.
Same bands as the 200-day, shown as context. This print does not vote.
Share of issues advancing47.0% · 2026-09-25
0%100%
A reading aid, not an engine vote. Under 40% is weak participation.
Regime score+1 constructive
−7+4
Sum of the five votes. The scale runs from −7 to +4.
VIX / VIX 3-month0.88 contango
0.701.30
Below 1 is the usual contango, which scores 0. Above 1 is backwardation and scores −1.
S&P distance from the 52-week high-1.36% · 2026-09-25
−15%at the high
A position, not a verdict. The all-time-high distance is the same number, so it is not drawn twice.
SPY minus equal-weight, 1 day+0.39 pp · 2026-09-25
equal-weight ledSPY led
Right means the cap-weighted index led. Blue is SPY, purple is equal-weight. Neither end is a buy.
New highs minus new lows+20 · 2026-09-25
−40+40
Neither tail is a buy. The tick only says which extreme was larger.
XLK relative strength104.8 leading
90110
XLE relative strength102.3 weakening
90110
XLV relative strength101.9 weakening
90110
XLC relative strength99.2 lagging
90110
XLP relative strength96.2 lagging
90110
XLB relative strength95.0 lagging
90110
XLF relative strength94.6 lagging
90110
XLY relative strength93.6 lagging
90110
XLI relative strength93.2 lagging
90110
XLRE relative strength92.0 lagging
90110
XLU relative strength88.7 lagging
90110
Chart.js, from this issue and stored issues. Each axis is labeled on the chart.
Regime engine
constructivescore +1
The regime engine scores constructive (+1): VIX 16.04, HY OAS 293bp and a +32bp 2s10s are not crash inputs. The forward tension is the level of yields, not the label.
Each symbol is compared with the S&P 500, not with its own price. Left to right (RS-ratio) is relative strength: above 100 means it has been stronger than the market. Bottom to top (RS-momentum) is whether that lead is growing: above 100 means it is getting stronger. Leading, top right, is strong and still improving. Weakening, bottom right, is still ahead but fading. Lagging, bottom left, is behind and still losing ground. Improving, top left, is behind but turning up. Leadership usually moves clockwise. The list and the chart are the same symbols.
This heatmap is TradingView, with its own data and its mark left in place. It is not the numbers in this letter. The other panels load when you choose them. If a panel is empty, their data-set name changed; the charts above still stand.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 1 minAsia sold the rates-and-oil shock first; the S&P 500 only followed to 7,670.84, down 0.17%, while the 30-year yield hit 5.6206%. The session's driver was a still-shut Hormuz plus a bond sel…
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Asia sold the rates-and-oil shock first; the S&P 500 only followed to 7,670.84, down 0.17%, while the 30-year yield hit 5.6206%. The session's driver was a still-shut Hormuz plus a bond selloff, not a broad equity crash.
Bridge to Today
Wednesday's core PCE and ADP decide whether the 5.29% 10-year and the October hike case extend.
US 10Y5.17%
3%6%
Now. The Nasdaq's move on this tape, and the 10-year. Yesterday's close stays in the sentence above.
Stocks
StocksUS Equity Ideas 1 minJNJ BUY
US EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
JNJNEW
Johnson & Johnson
6.2
-1.35%
JNJVALUEBUYNEW
Johnson & Johnson • Health Care
6.2/10Conviction
$267.57
▼ -1.35%
Over the next two weeks, expect JNJ to hold up better than long-duration growth if Wednesday's PCE keeps the 10-year above 5%, with BofA's new $278 target as the marker.
PE 18.8RSI 46BofA $278Volume surge
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
6/10
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
BofA raised the price target to $278 from $263 on 29 Sep and stayed NeutralBofA models about 6% company-level revenue growth, with the Icotyde forecast lifted
Mkt Cap
$504.1B
P/E
18.8
Target
$278.00
Invalidation: A close under the 50-day near $263, or a cut to the $278 target.
TradingView's price for JNJ. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 1 min
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 5 min5 of 17 scored ETFs closed above their 50-day. Tech and health care still pass. Biotech and materials are exits. No fresh buy was added.
TREND FOLLOW
5 of 17 scored ETFs closed above their 50-day. Tech and health care still pass. Biotech and materials are exits. No fresh buy was added.
5 of 17 scored names are above their 50-day. QQQ has only 17 sessions and is not in that count. The tape that passes is still tech plus health care.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
XLK
Technology Select Sector SPDR
6.7
-0.89%
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
5.7
-1.08%
XLV
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
6.3
+0.33%
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR
5.3
+0.10%
XBI
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
3
+1.02%
XLB
Materials Select Sector SPDR
3
-0.66%
XLKTECHNOLOGYHOLD🔥 3-issue streak
Technology Select Sector SPDR
6.7/10Conviction
$194.53
▼ -0.89%
Stay long tech beta while XLK holds its 50-day; 20-day RS vs SPY is +4.8 pts, so this is a hold, not a fresh add.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRS is the catalyst; the ETF bar itself is Tech leadership is real, and it is the croPrice above 50-day and 200-day; 20d RS vs
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
8/10
20-day RS vs SPY still positive on the 28 Sep barNo new BUY: the lot is already on the book
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$183.73).
TradingView's price for XLK. It is not the last print in this letter.
Hold semiconductors: SMH is still above both averages with 20-day RS vs SPY of +2.1 pts. Do not add a second tech lot.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo fresh semi catalyst beyond the trend ruSecond tech sleeve. Kept because the rule Above 50-day and 200-day; 20d RS vs SPY +2
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
7/10
Same uptrend rules as XLK, weaker relative strengthSector cap already filled by XLK plus SMHA full-lot sell from 14 Sep is still pending; this run did not send another.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$570.28).
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
Keep the health-care sleeve: XLV clears both averages and 20-day RS vs SPY is +0.9 pts, the non-tech diversifier.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sBofA's JNJ target raise is the sector's daHealth care is the diversifier inside an oAbove both averages; 20d RS vs SPY +0.9 pt
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
7/10
Only non-tech name that still clears the BUY ruleDefensive RS matters with the 10-year above 5%
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$166.06).
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
Energy stays a hold, not an add: XLE is +3.4% above its 50-day but 20-day RS vs SPY is -2.4 pts.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sHormuz premium is still the tape; RS no loOil risk is live. The ETF is no longer beaAbove the 50-day, but 20d RS vs SPY is -2.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
5/10
Still above the 50-day, so the exit rule has not firedRelative strength vs SPY has turned negative
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$60.05).
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
Exit biotech. XBI closed back through its 50-day on the latest bar, which is the book's hard exit, not a discretionary trim.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo dated biotech catalyst overrides a failThe prior book was long XBI. The trend rulClose is -0.5% versus its own 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
3/10
Narrative
3/10
Technicals
3/10
Last close is below the 50-day averageA full-lot sell is already pending from a prior run
Invalidation: The exit already triggered: close is under the 50-day (~$157.45).
TradingView's price for XBI. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLBMATERIALSEXIT🔥 45-issue streak
Materials Select Sector SPDR
3/10Conviction
$49.47
▼ -0.66%
Exit materials. XLB is through its 50-day, so the trend book sells the lot rather than waiting for an 8% stop.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sCopper's drift is not a reason to overrideMaterials leadership has not held the 50-dClose is -4.0% versus its own 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
3/10
Narrative
3/10
Technicals
3/10
Last close is below the 50-day averageA full-lot sell is already pending from a prior run
Invalidation: The exit already triggered: close is under the 50-day (~$51.53).
TradingView's price for XLB. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minBitcoin ETFs added $31.07m on Monday, an eighth inflow day, but that was about 80% below Friday. Hold bitcoin and ether into Wednesday's PCE. Do not add a third coin on a cooling tape.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Bitcoin ETFs added $31.07m on Monday, an eighth inflow day, but that was about 80% below Friday. Hold bitcoin and ether into Wednesday's PCE. Do not add a third coin on a cooling tape.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
5.5
+0.85%
ETH-USD
Ether
5.5
+1.76%
BTC-USDHOLD🔥 29-issue streak
Bitcoin
5.5/10Conviction
$83837.00
▲ +0.85%
Into Wednesday's PCE, expect bitcoin to track real yields more than the ETF streak: Monday's $31m inflow was the weakest day of an eight-day run.
No protocol supply change to score; the inSpot BTC ETFs +$31.07m on 28 Sep, day eighThe streak held, but Monday was its weakesInstitutional bid is selective into a 5% y83,837 is +0.8% on 29 Sep and did not brea
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
6/10
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
6/10
Spot bitcoin ETFs +$31.07m on 28 Sep, eighth straight inflow dayPace down about 80% from Friday's $134m
Invalidation: A daily close under $80,000, or the ETF streak breaking negative.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Ether should follow the same yield tape. Monday's $17.1m ETF inflow, mostly ETHA, is support, not a reason to add before PCE.
No new ETH supply or burn print scored thiETH ETFs +$17.1m; BlackRock ETHA was $15.4Same cooling inflow tape as bitcoin, no seWrapper demand is steady. It is not a new ETH held a gain on 29 Sep alongside bitcoi
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
6/10
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
6/10
Spot ether ETFs +$17.1m on 28 Sep, seventh inflow dayBlackRock ETHA contributed $15.4m of that total
Invalidation: A daily close under $2,500, or ether ETF flows turning negative.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 1 minHold the oil premium. WTI futures closed at 93.84, up 0.47%, with Hormuz still shut. Gold and wheat were checked and did not clear the score bar.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Hold the oil premium. WTI futures closed at 93.84, up 0.47%, with Hormuz still shut. Gold and wheat were checked and did not clear the score bar.
Crude holding the low-90s while gold futures slipped to 4,173.20 is an inflation-and-yields mix, not a growth scare: the 10-year breakeven is 2.35 and the…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
USO
WTI crude (USO)
7
+1.13%
WTI crude (USO)ENERGYHOLD🔥 12-issue streak
USO
7/10Conviction
$150.01
▲ +1.13%
Over the next sessions, hold the oil premium rather than add: CL=F is 93.84 and Hormuz is still shut, but Tuesday's future only rose 0.47%.
CL=F is 93.84 with Hormuz still the physicNo COT or positioning print priced this ruTrump rejected a truce; the supply premiumHormuz is consensus, so this is a hold, noUSO 150.01 on 28 Sep; the future rose 0.47
Fundamentals
8/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
7/10
US-Iran talks have not reopened the Strait of HormuzCL=F closed 29 Sep at 93.84, up 0.47%
Invalidation: CL=F settles under $88, or a confirmed Hormuz reopening.
TradingView's price for USO. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 7 min30d hit rate 36%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
No book with a live quote is included in this bar.
Named holdings. 82 smaller positions (22.67%) are off this picture.
Tech US
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Euro Only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$97821.52
Cash
$14987.73
P&L
$-2178.48 (-0.22%)
Realized P&L
$-42835.98
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Sell
GLE.PA
22.15
pending
Sell
ADYEN.AS
2.33
pending
Sell
BAB.L
33.52
pending
Sell
DRX.L
37.7
pending
Sell
NXT.L
2.15
pending
Sell
GLEN.L
48.81
pending
Sell
KLR.L
8.12
pending
Sell
CRDA.L
8.29
pending
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes came back estimated at cost for every holding in this book.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702
$702.62
—
TTE.PA ×368
$27276.04
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
—
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
—
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
—
GLE.PA ×22.15
$1755.04
—
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
—
NWG.L ×191
$1346.17
—
+47 more holdings
Track Record
11 On Track · 11 Lagging · 8 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
TTE.PA (2026-07-19)
7.5/10
+7.9%
On Track
GLE.PA (2026-07-30)
7.5/10
-8.7%
Stopped Out
SU.PA (2026-07-31)
7/10
-3.6%
Lagging
ENR.DE (2026-08-06)
7.5/10
-4.2%
Lagging
MT.AS (2026-08-25)
6.5/10
-3.1%
Lagging
LR.PA (2026-08-31)
6.5/10
-3.4%
Lagging
ENI.MI (2026-09-02)
7/10
+0.5%
On Track
REP.MC (2026-09-02)
7/10
+8.3%
On Track
RWE.DE (2026-09-03)
7/10
+2.2%
On Track
ADYEN.AS (2026-09-03)
7/10
-15.7%
Stopped Out
PUB.PA (2026-09-04)
7/10
-5.2%
Lagging
DTE.DE (2026-09-04)
6.5/10
-5.1%
Lagging
IVG.MI (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
+0.5%
On Track
TKA.DE (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
+0.9%
On Track
TEF.MC (2026-09-07)
7/10
-6.3%
Lagging
EUROB.AT (2026-09-07)
7/10
-0.4%
Lagging
AIR.PA (2026-09-08)
7/10
-3.3%
Lagging
SAN.MC (2026-09-08)
6.5/10
-2.4%
Lagging
KIE.L (2026-09-15)
7/10
+3.3%
On Track
BAB.L (2026-09-16)
7.3/10
-16.9%
Stopped Out
EXENS.PA (2026-09-17)
7.5/10
+6.5%
On Track
SOI.PA (2026-09-17)
6.8/10
+2.5%
On Track
DRX.L (2026-09-18)
7/10
-18.8%
Stopped Out
NXT.L (2026-09-18)
7.2/10
-15.8%
Stopped Out
BEZ.DE (2026-09-21)
7/10
+26.7%
On Track
KCR.HE (2026-09-25)
7.3/10
-5.7%
Lagging
ATE.PA (2026-09-26)
7.3/10
+0.0%
On Track
GLEN.L (2026-09-27)
6.3/10
-14.1%
Stopped Out
KLR.L (2026-09-28)
7/10
-14.1%
Stopped Out
CRDA.L (2026-09-28)
6/10
-14.1%
Stopped Out
Penny Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes came back estimated at cost for every holding in this book.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578
$3755.55
—
PYPD ×1564
$6940.50
—
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
—
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$35000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes came back estimated at cost for every holding in this book.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65
$25000.00
—
IEF ×108
$10000.00
—
DBC ×654
$20000.00
—
SPLV ×132
$10000.00
—
Track Record
1 On Track · 3 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
GLD (2026-08-18)
6/10
-6.8%
Lagging
IEF (2026-08-18)
6/10
-3.6%
Lagging
DBC (2026-08-18)
8/10
+6.3%
On Track
SPLV (2026-08-18)
5/10
-6.1%
Lagging
Trend Follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$73446.40
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Sell
XBI
32
pending
Sell
XLB
93.53
pending
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes came back estimated at cost for every holding in this book.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86
$5539.52
—
XLK ×11.57
$2271.54
—
SMH ×5.03
$2990.61
—
XLV ×30.27
$5207.77
—
XBI ×32
$5207.77
—
XLB ×93.53
$4954.78
—
Track Record
1 On Track · 5 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
XLE (2026-08-18)
8/10
-1.5%
Lagging
XLK (2026-08-18)
8/10
-0.9%
Lagging
SMH (2026-08-18)
6.5/10
+1.0%
On Track
XLV (2026-08-19)
8/10
-0.5%
Lagging
XBI (2026-08-19)
6.5/10
-3.8%
Lagging
XLB (2026-08-21)
6/10
-6.6%
Lagging
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$26717.65
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Sell
URA
23.16
pending
Sell
LIT
13.37
pending
Sell
PALL
71.96
pending
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes came back estimated at cost for every holding in this book.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×206
$26795.83
—
GLD ×30.1
$11738.20
—
CPER ×150
$5929.12
—
SLV ×93.58
$5545.24
—
PPLT ×66.63
$1111.38
—
BNO ×35.14
$1850.57
—
URA ×23.16
$1066.93
—
UGA ×26.78
$3377.87
—
+11 more holdings
Track Record
6 On Track · 7 Lagging · 5 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
USO (2026-07-19)
4/10
+15.4%
On Track
GLD (2026-07-27)
6.5/10
-3.1%
Lagging
CPER (2026-07-30)
5.5/10
+0.7%
On Track
LIT (2026-08-04)
6.5/10
-10.9%
Stopped Out
SLV (2026-08-06)
6.5/10
-7.3%
Lagging
PPLT (2026-08-21)
7/10
-6.7%
Lagging
BNO (2026-08-21)
7/10
+14.6%
On Track
URA (2026-08-22)
7/10
-12.9%
Stopped Out
UGA (2026-08-22)
7/10
+12.5%
On Track
CORN (2026-08-23)
6/10
+0.4%
On Track
PALL (2026-08-24)
6.5/10
-12.1%
Stopped Out
WEAT (2026-08-24)
6/10
-7.1%
Lagging
UNG (2026-08-25)
6.5/10
+3.9%
On Track
CANE (2026-08-28)
7/10
-2.1%
Lagging
GDX (2026-09-04)
7/10
-8.5%
Stopped Out
SIL (2026-09-04)
6.5/10
-9.7%
Stopped Out
SLX (2026-09-07)
6.5/10
-5.6%
Lagging
COPX (2026-09-08)
7/10
-4.3%
Lagging
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$32370.73
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes came back estimated at cost for every holding in this book.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5510
$35015.45
—
ETH-USD ×14.91
$28949.67
—
SOL-USD ×26.81
$2795.91
—
XRP-USD ×628
$868.24
—
Track Record
3 On Track
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BTC-USD (2026-07-19)
6.5/10
+31.9%
On Track
ETH-USD (2026-07-20)
6/10
+38.7%
On Track
XRP-USD (2026-08-29)
6/10
+9.3%
On Track
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +36.10%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
real yield
A real yield is the nominal bond yield minus expected inflation.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.