market_pulse — index_ladder.json returned HTTP 401, so the index ladder is omitted.
market_pulse — FRED tiles lag the cash close: US 10Y is 25 Sep, US 2Y and US 30Y and HY OAS are 28 Sep. The VIX tile is the 29 Sep close (16.04). The VIX index row is the 30 Sep price body (16.14).
market_pulse — calendar.json has no economic events and no earnings source. event_radar is omitted. Index analytics and breadth are the 25 Sep snapshot.
yesterday_retrospective — Europe index histories did not print a 29 Sep close (DAX, CAC and FTSE stop on 28 Sep; Stoxx stops on 24 Sep), so Europe is omitted.
yesterday_retrospective — Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai histories skip sessions between 24 and 29 Sep, so Asia is described off the last available prints, not as a one-day change.
yesterday_retrospective — CL=F rose 0.47% on the 29 Sep bar and fell 4.48% on the 30 Sep bar. Tuesday cash recaps described an oil plunge. Those two clocks are not treated as the same print.
us_equity_ideas — Screener category=us is dated 25 Sep. NFLX history skipped 26-28 Sep, so the -1.19% change is versus the 25 Sep close. NICE history returned a single 29 Sep close, so technicals are unscored.
eu_equity_ideas — Screener category=eu is dated 25 Sep. No name had a company-specific upgrade, new target, or deal inside 48 hours that cleared the bar. Published zero ideas.
penny_plays — Screener category=penny returned an empty universe. No name cleared a cited Multi-Bagger score, and none was forced onto the list.
forex_rebalancing — Squawk routes returned 401. The prediction-market query returned resolved 2025 questions, not an October 2026 hike contract. USD/JPY 157.40 is the Tuesday FXStreet quote.
commodities_outlook — BNO last printed 29 Sep at 58.75. CL=F printed 89.64 on 30 Sep, down 4.48% from the 29 Sep futures close. Web Brent quotes near $103 were not substituted for the BNO price.
crypto_landscape — ETH-USD and the ETF-flow figures are not in prices.json. BTC-USD 83117 and its -0.86% change are the aggregator print.
risk_cover_playbook — SPY/TLT 20-session correlation was not computed this run. Internals use the prepass VIX term structure, HY OAS and breadth only.
portfolio_reality_check — Euro Only time-weighted return (-85.0123) and pnl percent (-0.2178) disagree. The API figures are published unchanged.
portfolio_reality_check — Anti-Fragile time-weighted return (-65.0) and pnl percent (0.0) disagree. The API figures are published unchanged.
portfolio_reality_check — Trend Follow time-weighted return (-26.5536) and pnl percent (-0.3816) disagree. The API figures are published unchanged.
portfolio_reality_check — Crypto time-weighted return (-67.6293) and pnl percent (0.0) disagree. The API figures are published unchanged.
Under 350 bp scores +1. Wider spreads score 0, then −1, then −2.
2-year / 10-year slope+32 bp
−80 bp+120 bp
Above +50 bp scores +1. Between 0 and +50 scores 0. Below 0 scores −1.
Today's Top Picks
NICE
6.7/10
XLK
6.7/10
SMH
6.7/10
BNO
6.3/10
BTC-USD
5.5/10
Biggest Risk
October FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥4.00–4.25%)
Probability: High • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $102463.78
Blended P&L: +2.46% • 30d Hit Rate: +38.30%
1 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 46 of 120 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 5.3%, average loss -5.9%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 6 minThe 30-year yield is 5.56 after a 7bp rise, HY OAS is 302bp, and the VIX tile is 16.04. The S&P 500 tile is 7670.84, down 0.17%.
MARKET PULSE
Only 59.13% of members are above the 200-day, and SPY leads RSP by 0.39pp while the S&P 500 tile is down 0.17%.
Mixed tape constructive +1 Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
AIThe 30-year yield is 5.56 after a 7bp rise, HY OAS is 302bp, and the VIX tile is 16.04. The S&P 500 tile is 7670.84, down 0.17%.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,670.84
yday 7,683.69
▼ -0.17%
NASDAQ Data
26,797.54
yday 26,820.38
▼ -0.09%
Dow Jones Data
51,349.92
yday 51,481.51
▼ -0.26%
Russell 2K Data
2,807.92
yday 2,817.91
▼ -0.35%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
4,216.60
yday 4,155.40
▲ +1.04%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data
89.64
yday 93.84
▼ -4.48%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
83,117.00
yday 83,837.00
▼ -0.86%
Ether Data
2,665.15
yday 2,693.21
▼ -1.04%
Rates
US 2Y Data
4.92
+11bp
US 10Y Data
5.17
yday 5.24
-1bp
US 30Y Data
5.56
+7bp
2s10s spread Data
32.00
yday 0.36 / -0.20
-4bp
10Y-3M spread Data
101.00
+5bp
Credit
US HY OAS Data
302.00
yday 2.93
+9bp
Baa-10Y spread Data
146.00
unch
Volatility
VIX Data
16.04
yday 16.07
-0.03 (-0.2%)
VIX/VIX3M term structure Data
0.88 ratio
calm
Dollar & FX
US Dollar Index (DXY) Data
101.28
+0.09 (+0.1%)
EUR/USD Data
1.13
yday 1.14
▼ -0.27%
Breadth
% > 50d Data
44.9%
—
% > 200d Data
59.1%
—
Adv / Dec Data
201 / 220
—
New hi / lo Data
37 / 17
—
SPY−RSP 1d Data
0.4pp
—
SPY−RSP 5d Data
+3.04pp
yday +3.04pp
—
SPY−RSP 21d Data
+5.15pp
yday +5.15pp
—
% from 52w Data
-1.36%
yday -1.36%
—
Europe % > SMA50 Data
33.3%
—
Europe % > SMA200 Data
68.4%
—
Europe % advancing Data
28.9%
—
Percent above the 200-day Data
59.13 pct
watch
Cover checks
VIX Data
16.04 / 25.00
yday 16.07
Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread Data
0.32 / -0.20
yday 0.36 / -0.20
Not Triggered
HY OAS Data
302.00 / 500.00
yday 2.93
Not Triggered
S&P 500 drawdown from ATH Data
-1.36 / -20.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AIGrowth is not the problem: the regime engine is constructive and the S&P 500 is 1.36% off its high. Inflation is: the 30-year yield rose 7bp to 5.56, and WTI is still 89.64 after a war-premium year. That is Gave's inflationary boom, so long duration stays at zero and the book kee
• Do not add a crash hedge while none of the four triggers is on.
• Keep the inflationary-boom mix: gold, intermediate bonds, broad commodities, a small low-vol equity sleeve.
AIZero of four hard triggers is on. VIX term structure is in contango (16.04 versus 18.23 at 3 months), HY OAS is 302bp, and the S&P 500 is 1.36% under its high. That is risk-on with a credit watch, not a hedge-on tape.
Each symbol is compared with the S&P 500, not with its own price. Left to right (RS-ratio) is relative strength: above 100 means it has been stronger than the market. Bottom to top (RS-momentum) is whether that lead is growing: above 100 means it is getting stronger. Leading, top right, is strong and still improving. Weakening, bottom right, is still ahead but fading. Lagging, bottom left, is behind and still losing ground. Improving, top left, is behind but turning up. Leadership usually moves clockwise. The list and the chart are the same symbols.
This heatmap is TradingView, with its own data and its mark left in place. It is not the numbers in this letter. The other panels load when you choose them. If a panel is empty, their data-set name changed; the charts above still stand.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 1 minTuesday's US decline was a yield story: the S&P 500 fell 0.17% to 7670.84 while the 10-year cash yield closed at 5.255, and a softer confidence print kept buyers selective.
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Tuesday's US decline was a yield story: the S&P 500 fell 0.17% to 7670.84 while the 10-year cash yield closed at 5.255, and a softer confidence print kept buyers selective.
Bridge to Today
The live test is whether Wednesday's inflation figures and the Micron guide extend Tuesday's yield pressure or let the 16.04 VIX stay the calm part of the tape.
US 10Y5.17%
3%6%
Now. The Nasdaq's move on this tape, and the 10-year. Yesterday's close stays in the sentence above.
GeneralConcept of the Day 1 minWhat the vol curve is saying when spot looks calm
CONCEPT OF THE DAY
What the vol curve is saying when spot looks calm
Why today : Today's vol block is upward-sloping, so the curve is in contango even as credit spreads ticked wider.
VIX term structure is the curve of expected volatility across expiries, not the single fear number on the screen. The front of the curve is short-dated implied volatility. Further out is what the options market will charge to insure a longer window. When the front sits below the back, the curve is in contango: insuring tomorrow costs less than insuring next quarter, which is the usual shape in a market that is not in an active shock. When the front rises through the back, the curve is in backwardation: traders are paying up for near-term protection, and that flip often arrives before the headline index itself looks extreme. The practical use is a regime check. A calm spot reading with a curve that has already flipped is a different message from a calm spot reading that still slopes upward. Next time this newsletter mentions the vol curve, read the slope first and the spot number second.
Stocks
StocksUS Equity Ideas 1 minNICE BUY
US EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
NICENEW
NICE Ltd.
6.7
—
NICEGROWTHBUYNEW
NICE Ltd. • Software
6.7/10Conviction
$106.81
▲ N/A
Over the next few weeks, Oppenheimer's 30 Sep upgrade to Outperform with a $150 target is the re-rating case from 106.81.
Debt-to-equity is 0.60; the current ratio No short-interest or flow series was priceOppenheimer moved to Outperform on 30 Sep The note is the AI CX platform plus the CoOnly one NICE close came back, so no 50-da
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
—
Oppenheimer upgraded NICE to Outperform from Perform on 30 Sep and set a $150 target, citing the AI customer-experience platform and the Cognigy deal.
Target
$150.00
Invalidation: A close back under $100 breaks the upgrade case.
TradingView's price for NICE. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 1 min
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 5 minNo new buy. The names that clear both the 50-day and the 200-day are already on the book. Biotech and materials closed back through the 50-day, so those lots are exits. A pending sell alrea…
TREND FOLLOW
No new buy. The names that clear both the 50-day and the 200-day are already on the book. Biotech and materials closed back through the 50-day, so those lots are exits. A pending sell already covers each, so no second order goes out.
Relative-strength leadership on the sector grid is still technology and health care. Energy is weakening. A fifth buy was not forced from a sector that fails…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
XLK
Technology Select Sector SPDR
6.7
-0.02%
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
6.7
+1.15%
XLV
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
5.5
-0.31%
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR
5
-0.90%
XBI
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
3
+0.13%
XLB
Materials Select Sector SPDR
3
-0.75%
XLKMOMENTUM ETFHOLD🔥 5-issue streak
Technology Select Sector SPDR
6.7/10Conviction
$194.50
▼ -0.02%
Stay in the lot while it holds the 50-day. Twenty-day relative strength versus SPY is positive, so this is a hold, not a new add.
Trend-follow does not re-underwrite fundamNo flow series was priced for this ETF.20-day RS versus SPY is +6.16 pts.The tape is the thesis; no separate story Above a rising 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
8/10
20-day relative strength versus SPY is +6.16 pts on the latest bar.
Invalidation: A close at or under the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XLK. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLK · 20d illustrative range
SMHMOMENTUM ETFHOLD🔥 48-issue streak
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
6.7/10Conviction
$606.90
▲ +1.15%
Stay in the lot while it holds the 50-day. Twenty-day relative strength versus SPY is positive, so this is a hold, not a new add.
Trend-follow does not re-underwrite fundamNo flow series was priced for this ETF.20-day RS versus SPY is +2.41 pts.The tape is the thesis; no separate story Above a rising 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
8/10
20-day relative strength versus SPY is +2.41 pts on the latest bar.
Invalidation: A close at or under the 50-day.
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
SMH · 20d illustrative range
XLVMOMENTUM ETFHOLD🔥 47-issue streak
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
5.5/10Conviction
$170.73
▼ -0.31%
The lot is still above its 50-day, but 20-day relative strength versus SPY is negative, so it stays and does not get new cash.
Trend-follow does not re-underwrite fundamNo flow series was priced for this ETF.20-day RS versus SPY is -2.57 pts.No separate narrative beyond the trend rulAbove a rising 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
7/10
20-day relative strength versus SPY is -2.57 pts on the latest bar.
Invalidation: A close at or under the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLV · 20d illustrative range
XLEMOMENTUM ETFHOLD🔥 48-issue streak
Energy Select Sector SPDR
5/10Conviction
$61.54
▼ -0.90%
The lot is still above its 50-day, but 20-day relative strength versus SPY is negative, so it stays and does not get new cash.
Trend-follow does not re-underwrite fundamNo flow series was priced for this ETF.20-day RS versus SPY is -2.96 pts.No separate narrative beyond the trend rulAbove a rising 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
6/10
20-day relative strength versus SPY is -2.96 pts on the latest bar.
Invalidation: A close at or under the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
XBIMOMENTUM ETFEXIT🔥 47-issue streak
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
3/10Conviction
$156.81
▲ +0.13%
SPDR closed back through its 50-day. The rule sells the lot rather than waiting for an 8% stop.
Trend-follow does not re-underwrite fundamNo flow series was priced for this ETF.20-day RS versus SPY is -1.46 pts.No separate narrative beyond the trend rulClosed back through the 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
3/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
20-day relative strength versus SPY is -1.46 pts on the latest bar.
Invalidation: A close at or under the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XBI. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLBMOMENTUM ETFEXIT🔥 47-issue streak
Materials Select Sector SPDR
3/10Conviction
$49.10
▼ -0.75%
Materials closed back through its 50-day. The rule sells the lot rather than waiting for an 8% stop.
Trend-follow does not re-underwrite fundamNo flow series was priced for this ETF.20-day RS versus SPY is -6.27 pts.No separate narrative beyond the trend rulClosed back through the 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
3/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
20-day relative strength versus SPY is -6.27 pts on the latest bar.
Invalidation: A close at or under the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XLB. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minUS spot bitcoin ETFs took in $66.2 million on 29 Sep, a ninth up day, while ether funds saw about $2.8 million leave. That split, not a new protocol event, is the forward tell.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $66.2 million on 29 Sep, a ninth up day, while ether funds saw about $2.8 million leave. That split, not a new protocol event, is the forward tell.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
5.5
-0.86%
ETH-USD
Ether
4.3
-1.04%
BTC-USDHOLD🔥 31-issue streak
Bitcoin
5.5/10Conviction
$83117.00
▼ -0.86%
Into the next flow print, holding 83117 needs the nine-day inflow streak to survive a $66.2 million day, a much smaller bid than mid-September.
No on-chain supply series was priced this Ninth inflow day, but the print was only $The flow streak is intact; the daily bid iBitcoin took the institutional bid; ether Close is 11.4% above its 50-day average.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
6/10
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
6/10
US spot bitcoin ETFs net inflow of $66.2 million on 29 Sep, a ninth straight day.IBIT about $51.1 million that session.
Invalidation: A daily close under $74,600, the 50-day.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Expect ether to keep lagging bitcoin while spot ETF flows stay negative. The next tell is a flow flip, not the chart.
No L2 TVL or supply series was priced thisEther funds leaked $2.81 million on 29 SepThe dated tell is the outflow, and it is sThe institutional bid stayed in bitcoin thClose is above its 50-day; the 200-day is
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
4/10
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
5/10
US spot ether ETFs net outflow of about $2.81 million on 29 Sep.
Invalidation: A flow flip to net inflows plus a close under the 50-day.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 1 minWTI's latest futures print is 89.64, down 4.48% on the 30 Sep bar. The tradable expression stays a watch on BNO, not a new oil buy, because the cash ETF is still the 29 Sep print and USO is…
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
WTI's latest futures print is 89.64, down 4.48% on the 30 Sep bar. The tradable expression stays a watch on BNO, not a new oil buy, because the cash ETF is still the 29 Sep print and USO is already in a stop-loss sale.
A 30-year yield at 5.56 and HY OAS at 302bp say the inflation scare is in the bond market. Gold's 30 Sep futures print of 4216.60, up 1.04%, is the hedge that…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BNO
United States Brent Oil Fund
6.3
-2.62%
United States Brent Oil FundENERGYWATCH🔥 2-issue streak
BNO
6.3/10Conviction
$58.75
▼ -2.62%
Into the next sessions the Brent bid depends on the sanctions denial holding after the export-recovery selloff.
Hormuz is still the supply risk; the deniaNo COT or positioning series was priced thThe 30 Sep sanctions denial is the fresh, Export recovery and the sanctions line poiBNO's 29 Sep close is still 12% above its
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
6/10
Trump denied Iran sanctions relief on 30 Sep after the prior session's export-recovery talk.CNBC put early-Wednesday Brent near $103 and WTI near $89.53, in line with the CL=F print of 89.64.
Invalidation: BNO closes back through $56 and stays there.
TradingView's price for BNO. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
GeneralTop 5 Risks Right Now 1 min#1 October FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥4.00–4.25%)
TOP 5 RISKS RIGHT NOW
#
Risk
Probability
Impact
Trend
1
October FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥4.00–4.25%)=
High
High
Stable
2
Hormuz stays shut and Brent holds the $100s=
Medium
High
Fading
3
MoF verbal warning versus a yen still soft near 157=
Medium
Medium
Stable
4
Micron's 30 Sep guide is the AI-capex testNEW
Medium
High
Stable
5
HY OAS widens while the VIX stays calmNEW
Medium
Medium
New
Watch: Whether Wednesday's inflation figures push the October hike quote through the 70% print FXStreet cited, or leave it nearer the 52% Williams recap.
GeneralWhat's Coming Up 1 min2026-09-30 — US inflation figures
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 9 min30d hit rate 38%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech US
+2.46%
Named holdings. 143 smaller positions (32.33%) are off this picture.
Tech US
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$102463.78
Cash
$11265.28
P&L
$2463.78 (+2.46%)
Realized P&L
$-3513.78
TWR
+2.47%
Sharpe
0.68
Max DD
-2.39%
Sortino
1.78
Calmar
5.50
Ann. return
+13.16%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions89%
Cash11%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
NICE
2.11
pending
Hold
NFLX
—
—
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$9564.71
+12.2%
XOM ×129
$20785.41
+5.6%
UNH ×8.49
$3184.22
-12.0%
INTC ×14.08
$1632.38
+34.3%
MSFT ×11.91
$6062.99
+25.1%
AMZN ×5.95
$1468.35
-8.7%
CVX ×7.29
$1490.32
+2.8%
FRO ×38.46
$1881.82
+21.0%
+52 more holdings
Track Record
19 On Track · 23 Lagging · 10 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
NAT (2026-08-31)
7/10
+17.9%
On Track
AMD (2026-08-31)
6.5/10
+30.5%
On Track
SLB (2026-09-01)
7/10
-17.0%
Stopped Out
ABNB (2026-09-01)
6.5/10
-14.3%
Stopped Out
VLO (2026-09-02)
7/10
+7.1%
On Track
FRO (2026-09-08)
7/10
+6.1%
On Track
DELL (2026-09-12)
6.2/10
-4.9%
Lagging
HAL (2026-09-03)
6.5/10
-16.2%
Stopped Out
SNOW (2026-09-04)
7.5/10
-7.3%
Lagging
HOOD (2026-09-04)
7/10
-6.8%
Lagging
RTX (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
-6.9%
Lagging
APH (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
+1.9%
On Track
DUOL (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
-7.7%
Lagging
FIVE (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
-12.0%
Stopped Out
PSX (2026-09-07)
7/10
-1.1%
Lagging
ADBE (2026-09-07)
6.5/10
-12.5%
Stopped Out
CVX (2026-09-08)
7/10
-2.0%
Lagging
JPM (2026-09-08)
6.5/10
-6.6%
Lagging
CRM (2026-09-08)
7/10
-13.1%
Stopped Out
QCOM (2026-09-09)
7/10
+5.8%
On Track
GLW (2026-09-09)
6.8/10
-4.4%
Lagging
MRK (2026-09-10)
7.2/10
+1.2%
On Track
JEF (2026-09-10)
6.3/10
-15.8%
Stopped Out
ORCL (2026-09-11)
7.2/10
-15.2%
Stopped Out
ESI (2026-09-13)
6.8/10
+4.8%
On Track
VRTX (2026-09-13)
6.9/10
+2.2%
On Track
ALGT (2026-09-14)
6.5/10
-1.6%
Lagging
COP (2026-09-14)
7.5/10
-8.7%
Stopped Out
LMT (2026-09-15)
6.6/10
-3.2%
Lagging
CRWD (2026-09-15)
7.1/10
+11.6%
On Track
LLY (2026-09-28)
7.3/10
+0.1%
On Track
LHX (2026-09-15)
6/10
-3.7%
Lagging
IREN (2026-09-16)
6/10
-0.5%
Lagging
LITE (2026-09-17)
7/10
+5.9%
On Track
HAE (2026-09-18)
6.8/10
-1.7%
Lagging
JBHT (2026-09-18)
6.5/10
-3.2%
Lagging
LRCX (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
+12.4%
On Track
COIN (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
-2.2%
Lagging
ACN (2026-09-20)
7/10
-2.3%
Lagging
TLN (2026-09-20)
6.8/10
+7.7%
On Track
META (2026-09-22)
7.4/10
-0.3%
Lagging
ARHS (2026-09-22)
6.2/10
+8.4%
On Track
SNDK (2026-09-23)
7.3/10
-8.3%
Stopped Out
AAPL (2026-09-23)
6.5/10
-3.0%
Lagging
DG (2026-09-25)
7/10
+0.1%
On Track
COST (2026-09-25)
6.8/10
+3.1%
On Track
SNPS (2026-09-26)
7/10
-2.5%
Lagging
JCI (2026-09-26)
7/10
-0.5%
Lagging
SNX (2026-09-28)
7.3/10
-1.8%
Lagging
TFX (2026-09-28)
6.3/10
+3.5%
On Track
NVDA (2026-09-29)
6.2/10
-0.7%
Lagging
JNJ (2026-09-30)
6.2/10
+0.0%
On Track
Euro Only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$97821.52
Cash
$14987.73
P&L
$-2178.48 (-0.22%)
Realized P&L
$-42835.98
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Every position below is marked at cost. Unrealized P&L is not a live quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702
$702.62
—
TTE.PA ×368
$27276.04
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
—
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
—
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
—
GLE.PA ×22.15
$1755.04
—
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
—
NWG.L ×191
$1346.17
—
+47 more holdings
Track Record
18 On Track · 18 Lagging · 3 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
SU.PA (2026-08-31)
7/10
-1.8%
Lagging
LR.PA (2026-08-31)
6.5/10
+2.4%
On Track
ENR.DE (2026-09-01)
7/10
+3.6%
On Track
TTE.PA (2026-09-26)
6.7/10
-2.4%
Lagging
ENI.MI (2026-09-02)
7/10
+0.9%
On Track
REP.MC (2026-09-02)
7/10
+4.9%
On Track
RWE.DE (2026-09-03)
7/10
+1.4%
On Track
ADYEN.AS (2026-09-03)
7/10
-16.2%
Stopped Out
PUB.PA (2026-09-04)
7/10
-7.2%
Lagging
DTE.DE (2026-09-04)
6.5/10
-7.2%
Lagging
VOD.L (2026-09-05)
7/10
+1.3%
On Track
IVG.MI (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
+1.6%
On Track
TKA.DE (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
-4.1%
Lagging
MT.AS (2026-09-06)
7/10
-11.0%
Stopped Out
TEF.MC (2026-09-07)
7/10
-8.0%
Lagging
EUROB.AT (2026-09-07)
7/10
+4.4%
On Track
AIR.PA (2026-09-08)
7/10
-4.3%
Lagging
SAN.MC (2026-09-23)
7/10
-1.8%
Lagging
NDX1.DE (2026-09-08)
6.8/10
-4.0%
Lagging
KGX.DE (2026-09-09)
7/10
-17.4%
Stopped Out
RIO.L (2026-09-10)
7/10
-7.5%
Lagging
ISP.MI (2026-09-11)
6.7/10
+1.9%
On Track
BP.L (2026-09-12)
6.5/10
-2.5%
Lagging
NOVN.SW (2026-09-13)
6.2/10
+7.9%
On Track
GSK.L (2026-09-15)
7/10
+0.1%
On Track
EXENS.PA (2026-09-17)
7.5/10
+2.8%
On Track
SOI.PA (2026-09-17)
6.8/10
+11.5%
On Track
DRX.L (2026-09-18)
7/10
-5.2%
Lagging
NXT.L (2026-09-18)
7.2/10
-2.1%
Lagging
ORSTED.CO (2026-09-19)
6.8/10
-0.4%
Lagging
GLE.PA (2026-09-21)
6.7/10
-2.7%
Lagging
BEZ.DE (2026-09-21)
7/10
+24.5%
On Track
TUI1.DE (2026-09-22)
6.8/10
+4.7%
On Track
SAVE.ST (2026-09-22)
6/10
-1.7%
Lagging
KCR.HE (2026-09-25)
7.3/10
-0.8%
Lagging
ATE.PA (2026-09-26)
7.3/10
+6.5%
On Track
GLEN.L (2026-09-27)
6.3/10
-1.7%
Lagging
KLR.L (2026-09-28)
7/10
+1.4%
On Track
CRDA.L (2026-09-28)
6/10
+1.2%
On Track
Penny Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Every position below is marked at cost. Unrealized P&L is not a live quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578
$3755.55
—
PYPD ×1564
$6940.50
—
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
—
Track Record
3 Lagging · 1 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BFRI (2026-09-18)
5/10
-12.1%
Stopped Out
OTLK (2026-09-09)
4/10
-6.2%
Lagging
INO (2026-09-28)
5/10
-5.9%
Lagging
LXRX (2026-09-29)
5/10
-1.1%
Lagging
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$35000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Every position below is marked at cost. Unrealized P&L is not a live quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65
$25000.00
—
IEF ×108
$10000.00
—
DBC ×654
$20000.00
—
SPLV ×132
$10000.00
—
Trend Follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$73446.40
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Sell
XBI
32
—
Sell
XLB
93.53
—
Current Holdings
⚠ Every position below is marked at cost. Unrealized P&L is not a live quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86
$5539.52
—
XLK ×11.57
$2271.54
—
SMH ×5.03
$2990.61
—
XLV ×30.27
$5207.77
—
XBI ×32
$5207.77
—
XLB ×93.53
$4954.78
—
Track Record
3 On Track · 5 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
SMH (2026-09-30)
5.7/10
+1.1%
On Track
XBI (2026-09-30)
3/10
+0.1%
On Track
XLE (2026-09-30)
5.3/10
-0.9%
Lagging
XLV (2026-09-30)
6.3/10
-0.3%
Lagging
XLB (2026-09-30)
3/10
-0.8%
Lagging
XLK (2026-09-30)
6.7/10
-0.0%
Lagging
QQQ (2026-09-08)
4/10
+2.6%
On Track
XLF (2026-09-08)
6/10
-7.0%
Lagging
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$26717.65
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Every position below is marked at cost. Unrealized P&L is not a live quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×206
$26795.83
—
GLD ×30.1
$11738.20
—
CPER ×150
$5929.12
—
SLV ×93.58
$5545.24
—
PPLT ×66.63
$1111.38
—
BNO ×35.14
$1850.57
—
URA ×23.16
$1066.93
—
UGA ×26.78
$3377.87
—
+11 more holdings
Track Record
4 On Track · 7 Lagging · 4 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BNO (2026-09-07)
7/10
+4.7%
On Track
CORN (2026-09-22)
6.8/10
-3.8%
Lagging
UNG (2026-09-15)
6.9/10
+0.2%
On Track
SLV (2026-09-20)
7/10
-7.4%
Lagging
USO (2026-09-15)
7.2/10
-8.5%
Stopped Out
UGA (2026-09-06)
7/10
+5.1%
On Track
CPER (2026-09-18)
6.8/10
+3.5%
On Track
GDX (2026-09-04)
7/10
-12.2%
Stopped Out
SIL (2026-09-04)
6.5/10
-14.0%
Stopped Out
PPLT (2026-09-05)
7/10
-6.2%
Lagging
URA (2026-09-05)
7/10
-13.1%
Stopped Out
CANE (2026-09-06)
6.5/10
-0.5%
Lagging
SLX (2026-09-07)
6.5/10
-7.6%
Lagging
COPX (2026-09-08)
7/10
-5.7%
Lagging
WEAT (2026-09-17)
6.8/10
-5.7%
Lagging
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$32370.73
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Every position below is marked at cost. Unrealized P&L is not a live quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5510
$35015.45
—
ETH-USD ×14.91
$28949.67
—
SOL-USD ×26.81
$2795.91
—
XRP-USD ×628
$868.24
—
Track Record
2 On Track
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
ETH-USD (2026-09-09)
5.8/10
+6.6%
On Track
BTC-USD (2026-09-20)
6.6/10
+3.5%
On Track
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +38.30%
Glossary
VIX term structure
VIX term structure is the curve of expected volatility across expiries, not the single fear number on the screen.
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.