market_pulse — Index ladder returned HTTP 401, so index_ladder is omitted.
market_pulse — The economic calendar was empty, so event_radar is omitted.
market_pulse — pulse_ready had no index_panel, so that block is omitted.
market_pulse — SPX analytics close is 7670.84 for 30 Sep, the /price 30 Sep close is 7651.54, and the 1 Oct close is 7666.71. The index band uses the 1 Oct prices.json close.
yesterday_retrospective — DAX, CAC, FTSE and Nikkei had no clean 30 Sep bar in this pull, so those sessions are omitted rather than filled.
yesterday_retrospective — Movers printed MU and MRNA at close 0 and -100%; those rows were discarded.
forex_rebalancing — Squawk alerts were unavailable (401, missing account key); scores use central-bank and market reporting.
forex_rebalancing — Aggregator USDJPY history last printed 157.429 on 2026-09-29. The above-158 level is the 1 Oct FXStreet report, not that history file.
eu_equity_ideas — SAF.PA fundamentals returned no statement and /news was empty. The 1 Oct Deutsche Bank note is the catalyst.
penny_plays — The penny screener returned zero names, and no dated PDUFA or contract cleared a publishable idea.
trend_follow — QQQ was not scored; this run's history pull did not include a long enough series for a 50-day.
crypto_landscape — Crypto and several other books came back price_estimated, so their P&L is a cost fallback, not a live mark.
commodities_outlook — BNO price rejected by Portfolio Manager's plausibility guard — see trade history
us_equity_ideas — CEG price rejected by Portfolio Manager's plausibility guard — see trade history
eu_equity_ideas — SAF.PA price rejected by Portfolio Manager's plausibility guard — see trade history
trend_follow — XLB price rejected by Portfolio Manager's plausibility guard — see trade history
portfolio_reality_check — SLB stop-loss was rejected with status 400 because pending orders already reserve the quantity.
portfolio_reality_check — HAL stop-loss was rejected with status 400 because pending orders already reserve the quantity.
portfolio_reality_check — HOOD stop-loss was rejected with status 400 because pending orders already reserve the quantity.
portfolio_reality_check — FIVE stop-loss was rejected with status 400 because pending orders already reserve the quantity.
portfolio_reality_check — ADBE stop-loss was rejected with status 400 because pending orders already reserve the quantity.
portfolio_reality_check — ORCL stop-loss was rejected with status 400 because pending orders already reserve the quantity.
1 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 15 of 33 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 10.6%, average loss -7.5%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 6 minThe 10-year is 5.24, up 7bp, and VIX is 16.5, up 0.36. The S&P print is 7666.71, up 15.17 points.
MARKET PULSE
Breadth is the tension: 45.39% of the S&P is above its short average and the index is 1.78% under its high.
Tightening constructive +1 Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
AIThe 10-year is 5.24, up 7bp, and VIX is 16.5, up 0.36. The S&P print is 7666.71, up 15.17 points.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,666.71
yday 7,670.84
▲ +0.20%
NASDAQ Data
26,950.14
yday 26,797.54
▲ +0.33%
Dow Jones Data
50,900.53
yday 51,349.92
▼ -0.01%
Russell 2K Data
2,795.97
yday 2,807.92
▼ -0.03%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
4,212.70
yday 4,216.60
▼ -0.09%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data
90.58
yday 89.64
▲ +1.05%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
84,305.00
yday 83,117.00
▲ +1.43%
Ether Data
2,714.58
yday 2,665.15
▲ +1.85%
US spot Bitcoin ETFs AI
-148.7 $m
Outbound
US spot Ethereum ETFs AI
-59.6 $m
Outbound
Rates
US 2Y Data
4.89
yday 4.92
-3bp
US 10Y Data
5.24
yday 5.17
+7bp
US 30Y Data
5.59
yday 5.56
+3bp
2s10s spread Data
37.00
yday 32.00
+5bp
10Y-3M spread Data
109.00
yday 101.00
+8bp
Credit
US HY OAS Data
308.00
yday 302.00
+6bp
Baa-10Y spread Data
146.00
yday 146.00
unch
Volatility
VIX Data
16.50
yday 16.04
+0.36 (+2.2%)
VIX9D/VIX Data
0.86 ratio
calm
VIX/VIX3M Data
0.90 ratio
calm
Dollar & FX
US Dollar Index (DXY) Data
101.28
yday 101.28
+0.09 (+0.1%)
EUR/USD Data
1.13
yday 1.13
▼ -0.12%
Breadth
% > 50d Data
45.4%
yday 44.9%
—
% > 200d Data
60.1%
yday 59.1%
—
Adv / Dec Data
206 / 217
yday 201 / 220
—
New hi / lo Data
33 / 19
yday 37 / 17
—
SPY−RSP 1d Data
0.0pp
yday 0.4pp
—
SPY−RSP 5d Data
+3.06pp
yday +3.04pp
—
SPY−RSP 21d Data
+5.37pp
yday +5.15pp
—
% from 52w Data
-1.78%
yday -1.36%
—
Europe % > SMA50 Data
37.9%
yday 33.3%
—
Europe % > SMA200 Data
73.7%
yday 68.4%
—
Europe % advancing Data
41.0%
yday 28.9%
—
S&P share above the 200-day Data
60.10 %
watch
Cross-asset
Stock-bond 20d correlation Data
0.49 ratio
watch
Cover checks
VIX Data
16.50 / 25.00
yday 16.04
Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread Data
0.37 / -0.20
yday 32.00
Not Triggered
HY OAS Data
308.00 / 500.00
yday 302.00
Not Triggered
S&P drawdown from 52-week high Data
-1.78 / -10.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AIHY OAS is 308bp, the 10-year is 5.24%, and Brent is back through $100, while the S&P is 1.78% under its high. That is an inflationary boom: long bonds stay at zero, and gold, broad commodities, and a small low-vol sleeve stay on.
DataHedge instruments : GLD, TLT, SH · Target cash 35%
Sleeve
Ticker
Target
Action
Gold AI
GLD
25%
Hold
Long bonds AI
TLT
0%
Exit
Intermediate bonds AI
IEF
10%
Hold
Commodities AI
DBC
20%
Hold
Defensive equity AI
SPLV
10%
Hold
Crash hedge AI
SH
0%
Exit
Cash AI
—
35%
Hold
If triggered today — do this now AI
• Cut the highest-beta adds first, starting with any new tech buy that is not yet filled.
• Raise cash toward the playbook target and add the hedge sleeve only if two triggers flip.
AIZero of four hard triggers are fired, so the cover stays risk-on. HY OAS at 308bp with VIX at 16.5 is a watch, and the stock-bond correlation is positive, which means bonds are not diversifying equities. That is not a crash signal.
Each symbol is compared with the S&P 500, not with its own price. Left to right (RS-ratio) is relative strength: above 100 means it has been stronger than the market. Bottom to top (RS-momentum) is whether that lead is growing: above 100 means it is getting stronger. Leading, top right, is strong and still improving. Weakening, bottom right, is still ahead but fading. Lagging, bottom left, is behind and still losing ground. Improving, top left, is behind but turning up. Leadership usually moves clockwise. The list and the chart are the same symbols.
This heatmap is TradingView, with its own data and its mark left in place. It is not the numbers in this letter. The other panels load when you choose them. If a panel is empty, their data-set name changed; the charts above still stand.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 1 minOn 30 Sep the Dow fell 0.86% to 50906 while the Nasdaq rose 0.24% to 26861. Cooler August PCE did not stop long yields from rising.
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Ticker
1d
LRCX
Lam Research Corp
+12.4%
VLO
Valero Energy Corp/Tx
+12.0%
QCOM
Qualcomm Inc/De
+9.1%
LITE
Lumentum Holdings Inc.
+8.9%
FIX
Comfort Systems Usa Inc
+6.3%
PANW
Palo Alto Networks Inc
-14.0%
NTAP
NetApp, Inc.
-10.4%
WMT
Walmart Inc.
-9.2%
On 30 Sep the Dow fell 0.86% to 50906 while the Nasdaq rose 0.24% to 26861. Cooler August PCE did not stop long yields from rising.
LRCX
+12.41%
VLO
+11.97%
QCOM
+9.10%
LITE
+8.94%
FIX
+6.29%
PANW
-13.95%
Bridge to Today
Friday's payrolls on 2026-10-02 are the next test of whether the cooler PCE print changes the October hike path.
US 10Y5.24%
3%6%
Now. The Nasdaq's move on this tape, and the 10-year. Yesterday's close stays in the sentence above.
Over the next quarter, the $61.5B FQ1 revenue guide should re-rate a stock that closed at $1,065.
FQ1 guide $61.5BGross margin 87%
Fundamentals
8/10
Sentiment / flow
6/10
Catalyst
9/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
FQ4 revenue was $54.23B and non-GAAP EPS $33.42; FQ1 guide is $61.5B revenue and non-GAAP EPS $38.15.Quarterly dividend $0.15, record date 2026-10-14, payable 2026-10-29.
Invalidation: FQ1 revenue guide cut below $57B, or a weekly close under $1,000.
TradingView's price for MU. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next month, the 20-year Amazon PPA and the $3B Calvert Cliffs plan should outweigh a soft close if the price holds up.
690MW PPA
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
4/10
A 20-year PPA covers 690MW at Calvert Cliffs, including about 190MW of new capacity from 2030 to 2032.The agreement supports more than $3 billion of Maryland investment and a 20-year license path.
Invalidation: PPA pricing disclosed below cash cost, or a weekly close under $240.
TradingView's price for CEG. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 5 minHold XLK and SMH, which still lead. Sell XLB, back through its 50-day. Do not add XBI: it is only a hair above the average and still lagging SPY.
TREND FOLLOW
Hold XLK and SMH, which still lead. Sell XLB, back through its 50-day. Do not add XBI: it is only a hair above the average and still lagging SPY.
5 of the six scored ETFs are above the 50-day. Only XLK and SMH also lead SPY. XLB is the exit. QQQ was not scored; this pull did not include a long enough…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
XLK
Technology Select Sector SPDR
6.7
+0.64%
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
6.7
+0.35%
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR
5.3
-0.07%
XLV
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
4.7
-1.35%
XBI
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
4
+0.56%
XLB
Materials Select Sector SPDR
3
-0.81%
XLKXLKHOLD🔥 7-issue streak
Technology Select Sector SPDR
6.7/10Conviction
$195.75
▲ +0.64%
XLK is still above its 50-day and 200-day and leading SPY, so the book holds it and does not add.
No issuer fundamentals on an ETF sleeve.No flow or positioning series for this ETFStill the leading sector on the RS matrix.The book already owns the leader, so this Above the 50-day and the 200-day, and lead
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
8/10
Next test is a daily close versus the 50-day, not a new headline.
Invalidation: A daily close back under the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XLK. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLK · 20d illustrative range
SMHSMHHOLD🔥 50-issue streak
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
6.7/10Conviction
$609.00
▲ +0.35%
SMH is still above its 50-day and 200-day and leading SPY, so the book holds it and does not add.
No issuer fundamentals on an ETF sleeve.No flow or positioning series for this ETFMicron's FQ1 guide is the near catalyst.The book already owns the leader, so this Above the 50-day and the 200-day, and lead
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
8/10
Next test is a daily close versus the 50-day, not a new headline.
Invalidation: A daily close back under the 50-day.
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
SMH · 20d illustrative range
XLEXLEHOLD🔥 50-issue streak
Energy Select Sector SPDR
5.3/10Conviction
$61.50
▼ -0.07%
XLE is still above its 50-day, so it stays. Relative strength versus SPY is negative, so this is not an add.
No issuer fundamentals on an ETF sleeve.No flow or positioning series for this ETFBrent back through $100 is the energy cataEnergy is owned, but it is lagging SPY oveAbove the 50-day, with relative strength s
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
5/10
Next test is a daily close versus the 50-day, not a new headline.
Invalidation: A daily close back under the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLE · 20d illustrative range
XLVXLVHOLD🔥 49-issue streak
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
4.7/10Conviction
$168.42
▼ -1.35%
XLV is still above its 50-day, so it stays. Relative strength versus SPY is negative, so this is not an add.
No issuer fundamentals on an ETF sleeve.No flow or positioning series for this ETFNo fresh sector catalyst; the hold is the Above the average, but relative strength vThe close is above the 50-day and the 200-
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
5/10
Next test is a daily close versus the 50-day, not a new headline.
Invalidation: A daily close back under the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
XBIXBIHOLD🔥 49-issue streak
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
4/10Conviction
$157.68
▲ +0.56%
XBI is back above its 50-day, so it stays, but relative strength versus SPY is negative, so this is not an add.
No issuer fundamentals on an ETF sleeve.No flow or positioning series for this ETFNo new biotech catalyst; the hold is the 5Back above the average by a hair, still laThe close is only 0.28% above the 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
4/10
Next test is a daily close versus the 50-day, not a new headline.
Invalidation: A daily close back under the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XBI. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLBXLBEXIT🔥 49-issue streak
Materials Select Sector SPDR
3/10Conviction
$48.70
▼ -0.81%
XLB closed back through its 50-day, so the trend book sells it rather than waiting for a bounce.
No issuer fundamentals on an ETF sleeve.No flow or positioning series for this ETFNo fresh catalyst; the 50-day break is theMaterials are the laggard sleeve on the RSThe close is back through the 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
3/10
Narrative
3/10
Technicals
3/10
Next test is a daily close versus the 50-day, not a new headline.
Invalidation: A close back above the 50-day would void the exit.
TradingView's price for XLB. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minBitcoin is 84305 and ether is 2714.58. Both stay holds after Wednesday's spot-ETF outflows.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Bitcoin is 84305 and ether is 2714.58. Both stay holds after Wednesday's spot-ETF outflows.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
5.2
+1.43%
ETH-USD
Ether
5.2
+1.85%
BTC-USDHOLD🔥 33-issue streak
Bitcoin
5.2/10Conviction
$84305.00
▲ +1.43%
Into the next ETF print, $84,305 holds only if Wednesday's $148.7m redemption does not repeat.
No protocol or treasury fundamental this rUS spot bitcoin ETFs saw $148.7m of outfloThe nine-day, $3.1B inflow streak just endSpot is $84,305; the flow print is the telThe day is +1.43%, which is a hold, not an
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
4/10
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
US spot bitcoin ETFs saw $148.7m of net outflows on 2026-09-30, ending a nine-day streak.
Invalidation: A second outflow day, or a close back under $80,000.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Ether at $2,715 follows the ETF tape: a third outflow day would break the bounce.
No fresh protocol fundamental for ether.US spot ether ETFs saw $59.6m of outflows That is a second straight outflow day.Spot is $2,715; it follows the ETF tape.The day is +1.85%, not enough to buy the d
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
4/10
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
US spot ether ETFs saw $59.6m of net outflows on 2026-09-30, a second straight day.
Invalidation: A third straight ether-ETF outflow day.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 1 minBrent is back through $100 into Sunday's OPEC+ meeting, so the book adds the Brent ETF and leaves the other complexes alone.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Brent is back through $100 into Sunday's OPEC+ meeting, so the book adds the Brent ETF and leaves the other complexes alone.
The oil bid is a stalled-talks premium. A 10-year at 5.24% and a firm dollar are not a broad gold-and-copper growth signal, so this book does not add a second…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BNO
United States Brent Oil Fund
6.5
+2.28%
United States Brent Oil FundENERGYBUY
BNO
6.5/10Conviction
$60.09
▲ +2.28%
Into Sunday's OPEC+ meeting, Brent back through $100 keeps the ETF bid if US-Iran talks stay stalled.
Brent futures reclaimed $100 on 1 Oct.No inventory or positioning series was pulOPEC+ meets Sunday and US-Iran talks are sThe bid is a Hormuz premium, not a demand BNO's last two closes are 58.75 then 60.09
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
6/10
Brent futures closed at 100.82 on 1 Oct, back through $100.OPEC+ is expected to leave November targets unchanged at Sunday's online meeting, 2026-10-04.
Invalidation: Brent settles back under $95 after Sunday's OPEC+ call.
TradingView's price for BNO. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 5 min30d hit rate 45%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech US
+2.78%
Named holdings. 142 smaller positions (32.36%) are off this picture.
Tech US
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$102781.74
Cash
$11059.77
P&L
$2781.74 (+2.78%)
Realized P&L
$-3536.17
TWR
+2.62%
Sharpe
0.72
Max DD
-2.39%
Sortino
1.90
Calmar
5.77
Ann. return
+13.81%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions89%
Cash11%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
MU
0.2118
dispatched
Buy
CEG
0.8880
—
Sell
SLB
12.9
—
Sell
HAL
53.7
—
Sell
HOOD
2.24
—
Sell
FIVE
1.12
—
Sell
ADBE
1.02
—
Sell
ORCL
1.54
—
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$9562.41
+12.2%
XOM ×129
$21034.04
+6.8%
UNH ×8.49
$3096.06
-14.4%
INTC ×14.08
$1671.38
+37.5%
MSFT ×11.91
$6153.76
+26.9%
AMZN ×5.95
$1472.04
-8.5%
CVX ×7.29
$1499.29
+3.4%
FRO ×38.46
$1943.74
+25.0%
+51 more holdings
Track Record
15 On Track · 12 Lagging · 6 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
SLB (2026-09-01)
7/10
-20.0%
Stopped Out
ABNB (2026-09-01)
6.5/10
-2.3%
Lagging
VLO (2026-09-02)
7/10
+12.9%
On Track
FRO (2026-09-02)
7/10
+25.0%
On Track
DELL (2026-09-03)
7.5/10
+5.6%
On Track
HAL (2026-09-03)
6.5/10
-15.6%
Stopped Out
HOOD (2026-09-04)
7/10
-10.4%
Stopped Out
RTX (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
-7.7%
Lagging
APH (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
+1.5%
On Track
DUOL (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
-6.1%
Lagging
FIVE (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
-13.1%
Stopped Out
PSX (2026-09-07)
7/10
+1.0%
On Track
ADBE (2026-09-07)
6.5/10
-8.7%
Stopped Out
CVX (2026-09-08)
7/10
+3.4%
On Track
CRM (2026-09-08)
7/10
-6.5%
Lagging
MRK (2026-09-10)
7.2/10
-4.9%
Lagging
ORCL (2026-09-11)
7.2/10
-16.2%
Stopped Out
CRWD (2026-09-15)
7.1/10
+26.5%
On Track
LLY (2026-09-15)
7.1/10
-2.5%
Lagging
LHX (2026-09-15)
6/10
-3.5%
Lagging
IREN (2026-09-16)
6/10
-4.7%
Lagging
LITE (2026-09-17)
7/10
+12.4%
On Track
HAE (2026-09-18)
6.8/10
-2.6%
Lagging
JBHT (2026-09-18)
6.5/10
-5.7%
Lagging
LRCX (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
+16.1%
On Track
COIN (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
-3.0%
Lagging
ACN (2026-09-20)
7/10
+24.6%
On Track
TLN (2026-09-20)
6.8/10
+7.0%
On Track
SNPS (2026-09-26)
7/10
+15.4%
On Track
JCI (2026-09-26)
7/10
-0.6%
Lagging
SNX (2026-09-28)
7.3/10
+1.1%
On Track
TFX (2026-09-28)
6.3/10
+0.5%
On Track
NVDA (2026-09-29)
6.2/10
+6.5%
On Track
Euro Only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$97821.52
Cash
$14987.73
P&L
$-2178.48 (-0.22%)
Realized P&L
$-42835.98
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
SAF.PA
0.8964
—
Current Holdings
⚠ Every mark in this book is the cost fallback; the API did not return a live price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702
$702.62
—
TTE.PA ×368
$27276.04
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
—
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
—
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
—
GLE.PA ×22.15
$1755.04
—
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
—
NWG.L ×191
$1346.17
—
+47 more holdings
Penny Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Every mark in this book is the cost fallback; the API did not return a live price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578
$3755.55
—
PYPD ×1564
$6940.50
—
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
—
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$35000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Every mark in this book is the cost fallback; the API did not return a live price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65
$25000.00
—
IEF ×108
$10000.00
—
DBC ×654
$20000.00
—
SPLV ×132
$10000.00
—
Trend Follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$73446.40
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Sell
XLB
93.53
—
Current Holdings
⚠ Every mark in this book is the cost fallback; the API did not return a live price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86
$5539.52
—
XLK ×11.57
$2271.54
—
SMH ×5.03
$2990.61
—
XLV ×30.27
$5207.77
—
XBI ×32
$5207.77
—
XLB ×93.53
$4954.78
—
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$26717.65
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
BNO
8.89
—
Current Holdings
⚠ Every mark in this book is the cost fallback; the API did not return a live price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×206
$26795.83
—
GLD ×30.1
$11738.20
—
CPER ×150
$5929.12
—
SLV ×93.58
$5545.24
—
PPLT ×66.63
$1111.38
—
BNO ×35.14
$1850.57
—
URA ×23.16
$1066.93
—
UGA ×26.78
$3377.87
—
+11 more holdings
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$32370.73
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Every mark in this book is the cost fallback; the API did not return a live price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5510
$35015.45
—
ETH-USD ×14.91
$28949.67
—
SOL-USD ×26.81
$2795.91
—
XRP-USD ×628
$868.24
—
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +45.45%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
carry trade
A carry trade borrows a low-rate currency and holds a higher-rate one, keeping the gap if the exchange rate stays calm.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.