market_pulse — Index band omitted symbols with a null close or a non-adjacent history gap: ^NDX (history jumps 24 Sep to 1 Oct), ^STOXX (2 Oct close was null), ^HSI (history jumps 30 Sep to 2 Oct). ^FTSEMIB, several Europe cash indices and softs returned no_data or a null close in prices.json. /index/ladder returned HTTP 401, so index_ladder and index_panel were not copied.
market_pulse — Commodity futures marked stale by the aggregator: SI=F 2026-10-01; HG=F 2026-09-30; CL=F 2026-10-01; BZ=F 2026-10-01; NG=F 2026-09-30.
yesterday_retrospective — Asia and several Europe cash indices do not have adjacent sessions in the aggregator history (Nikkei jumps 29 Sep to 1 Oct; DAX, CAC and FTSE jump 28 Sep to 1 Oct; Hang Seng skips 1 Oct). Those one-day percentages were not published. /movers is dated 2026-09-30 and includes impossible −100% prints (MU, MRNA, BMW.DE), so movers[] was omitted. Squawk alerts returned HTTP 401 (account key required).
commodities_outlook — BZ=F is the barrel, not a new ETF buy: BNO's last close in history is 60.09 on 30 Sep, a session behind the 1 Oct Brent move, and BNO was already bought yesterday. No portfolio_target on this WATCH. EU-style ETF quotes were not used as the crude price.
us_equity_ideas — Aggregator /news for OXY did not carry the 1 Oct Goldman upgrade; the call is web-sourced. ACN price history ends 29 Sep at 177.12 while the 1 Oct close is 212.30, so no one-day price_change_pct was published (CNBC reported a rise of more than 20%). Screener technicals are as of 30 Sep.
eu_equity_ideas — Deutsche Bank's 1 Oct European list added ADP, ICG, RWE, SPIE, UCB and ING with stated targets, but ADP.PA, ICG.L and RWE.DE all came back with a null close (provider circuits open, Tiingo 404). No EU idea was priced, so none was published.
penny_plays — Screener category=penny returned an empty universe (no screener run recorded). No sub-$5 name cleared a dated catalyst plus a live price this run, so the section is empty.
forex_rebalancing — Squawk-alert feed returned HTTP 401, so same-day FX intervention was checked via the 1 Oct FXStreet report rather than the aggregator alert stream. Prediction-market query for an October Fed hike returned a resolved, stale Manifold contract, so hike odds are the cited news figures, not a live market probability. USDJPY near 158 is EURJPY divided by the 1 Oct EURUSD close, not a direct USDJPY print.
risk_cover_playbook — MOVE and the equity put/call ratio were not priced (no clean aggregator series this run), so those two internals were omitted. Anti-fragile positions came back price_estimated, so live sleeve drift versus the 25/10/20/10 targets was not marked to the fresh GLD/IEF/DBC/SPLV quotes; cost weights already match the targets inside the 2pp band, and no rebalance was sent.
trend_follow — Sector ETF history mostly ends 29–30 Sep, so the 50-day test is as of that last bar, not the 1 Oct cash close. QQQ returned only 18 closes and was not scored. The book already holds six names; XLB is the exit, and no new buy was added because the only full-rule names (XLK, SMH) are already owned and the cap is five.
portfolio_reality_check — Hit rate 50.0% is the share of US buys from 2 Sep onward that are still held and measurable at a live price (16 on track of 32). Euro, commodities, crypto, anti-fragile and trend positions came back price_estimated, so those books were not scored into the hit rate. Stop-loss sells were sent for held US names at or under -8% versus the published entry.
1 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 16 of 32 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 9.1%, average loss -6.6%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 7 minThe 10-year is 5.26% (+2bp) and the 30-year 5.59% (+3bp) while the 2-year eased to 4.89% (−3bp). VIX is 16.50 (+0.36pt) and HY OAS is 308bp (+6bp); the S&P is 7,666.71 (+15.17pt).
MARKET PULSE
Only 45.39% of the S&P clears its medium-term average, and the index is 1.78% under the high. SPY versus equal-weight was 0.0427pp on the day. That is a mixed tape: equities up, the long end and credit a touch tighter.
Mixed tape constructive +1 Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
AIThe 10-year is 5.26% (+2bp) and the 30-year 5.59% (+3bp) while the 2-year eased to 4.89% (−3bp). VIX is 16.50 (+0.36pt) and HY OAS is 308bp (+6bp); the S&P is 7,666.71 (+15.17pt).
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,666.45
yday 7,666.71
▲ +0.19%
NASDAQ Data
26,871.60
yday 26,950.14
▲ +0.04%
Dow Jones Data
50,926.56
yday 50,900.53
▲ +0.04%
Russell 2K Data
2,806.63
yday 2,795.97
▲ +0.35%
Nikkei 225 Data
68,309.46
▼ -0.94%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
4,209.10
yday 4,212.70
▼ -0.09%
Silver Data
61.24
▼ -0.62%
Copper Data
6.64
▼ -0.02%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data
90.58
yday 90.58
▲ +1.05%
Brent Data
100.82
▲ +4.57%
Natural gas Data
3.03
▼ -3.13%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
85,964.00
yday 84,305.00
▲ +1.97%
Ether Data
2,728.73
yday 2,714.58
▲ +0.52%
Solana Data
121.87
▲ +4.17%
US spot Bitcoin ETFs AI
-148.7 $m
yday -148.7 $m
Outbound
Rates
US 2Y Data
4.89
yday 4.89
-3bp
US 10Y Data
5.26
yday 5.24
+2bp
US 30Y Data
5.59
yday 5.59
+3bp
2s10s spread Data
37.00
yday 37.00
+5bp
10Y-3M spread Data
109.00
yday 109.00
+8bp
Credit
US HY OAS Data
308.00
yday 308.00
+6bp
Baa-10Y spread Data
146.00
yday 146.00
unch
IG OAS Data
84.00 bp
calm
HY minus IG OAS Data
224.00 bp
watch
Volatility
VIX Data
16.50
yday 16.50
+0.36 (+2.2%)
VIX9D/VIX Data
0.86 ratio
yday 0.86 ratio
calm
VIX/VIX3M Data
0.90 ratio
yday 0.90 ratio
calm
Dollar & FX
US Dollar Index (DXY) Data
101.28
yday 101.28
+0.09 (+0.1%)
EUR/USD Data
1.13
yday 1.13
▲ +0.09%
Breadth
% > 50d Data
45.4%
yday 45.4%
—
% > 200d Data
60.1%
yday 60.1%
—
Adv / Dec Data
206 / 217
yday 206 / 217
—
New hi / lo Data
33 / 19
yday 33 / 19
—
SPY−RSP 1d Data
0.0pp
yday 0.0pp
—
SPY−RSP 5d Data
+3.06pp
yday +3.06pp
—
SPY−RSP 21d Data
+5.37pp
yday +5.37pp
—
% from 52w Data
-1.78%
yday -1.78%
—
Europe % > SMA50 Data
37.9%
yday 37.9%
—
Europe % > SMA200 Data
73.7%
yday 73.7%
—
Europe % advancing Data
41.0%
yday 41.0%
—
Stock-bond 20d correlation (SPY vs TLT) Data
0.49 ratio
stress
S&P 500 share above the 200-day Data
60.10 pct
watch
Liquidity
SOFR minus effective fed funds Data
2.00 bp
calm
Initial claims Data
197,000.00 persons
calm
Cross-asset
Average pairwise SPDR correlation (20 sessions) Data
0.12 ratio
calm
Gold/copper ratio (GC=F / HG=F) Data
635.40 ratio
calm
Cover checks
VIX Data
16.50 / 25.00
yday 16.50
Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread (percentage points) Data
0.37 / -0.20
Not Triggered
HY OAS (bp) Data
308.00 / 500.00
Not Triggered
S&P drawdown from 52-week high (%) Data
-1.78 / -10.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AIBrent is back at $100.82 and the 30-year is 5.59%, while the S&P is still up and copper is not breaking. That is an inflationary boom, not a bust: own gold and broad commodities, keep intermediate bonds as ballast, and leave long duration at zero. If payrolls are hot, this mix st
• Sell the trend-follow names that are already under the 50-day
• Raise cash in the high-beta US book before adding hedges
AIZero of four hard triggers are fired, so the regime stays risk-on. 2 of 10 internals are on watch and 1 are in stress: HY is 308bp with VIX at 16.5, and breadth is only 45% above the 50-day. The live risk is $100 Brent plus this morning's payrolls, not a crash overlay.
Same bands as the 200-day, shown as context. This print does not vote.
Share of issues advancing48.1%
0%100%
A reading aid, not an engine vote. Under 40% is weak participation.
Regime score+1 constructive
−7+4
Sum of the five votes. The scale runs from −7 to +4.
VIX / VIX 3-month0.90 contango
0.701.30
Below 1 is the usual contango, which scores 0. Above 1 is backwardation and scores −1.
S&P distance from the 52-week high-1.78%
−15%at the high
A position, not a verdict. The all-time-high distance is the same number, so it is not drawn twice.
SPY minus equal-weight, 1 day+0.04 pp
equal-weight ledSPY led
Right means the cap-weighted index led. Blue is SPY, purple is equal-weight. Neither end is a buy.
New highs minus new lows+14
−40+40
Neither tail is a buy. The tick only says which extreme was larger.
XLK relative strength105.8 leading
90110
XLE relative strength101.3 weakening
90110
XLV relative strength100.5 leading
90110
XLC relative strength99.7 improving
90110
XLP relative strength96.0 lagging
90110
XLF relative strength94.5 lagging
90110
XLB relative strength94.2 lagging
90110
XLY relative strength94.1 lagging
90110
XLI relative strength93.8 lagging
90110
XLRE relative strength92.3 lagging
90110
XLU relative strength90.2 lagging
90110
Chart.js, from this issue and stored issues. Each axis is labeled on the chart.
Regime engine
constructivescore +1
The regime engine prints constructive (score 1): VIX 16.5 and HY OAS 308bp are inside the calm bands, while breadth at 60.1% above the 200-day is only neutral. The tension is the long end at 5.59% against that label.
Each symbol is compared with the S&P 500, not with its own price. Left to right (RS-ratio) is relative strength: above 100 means it has been stronger than the market. Bottom to top (RS-momentum) is whether that lead is growing: above 100 means it is getting stronger. Leading, top right, is strong and still improving. Weakening, bottom right, is still ahead but fading. Lagging, bottom left, is behind and still losing ground. Improving, top left, is behind but turning up. Leadership usually moves clockwise. The list and the chart are the same symbols.
This heatmap is TradingView, with its own data and its mark left in place. It is not the numbers in this letter. The other panels load when you choose them. If a panel is empty, their data-set name changed; the charts above still stand.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 1 minThe S&P rose 0.19% to 7,666.45 on 1 Oct after an early yield spike reversed, while the Stoxx 600 fell 1.30% and Brent settled at $100.82.
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
The S&P rose 0.19% to 7,666.45 on 1 Oct after an early yield spike reversed, while the Stoxx 600 fell 1.30% and Brent settled at $100.82.
Bridge to Today
September payrolls print at 08:30 ET today; a hot number would put the October hike back into a tape that just priced it down.
US 10Y5.26%
3%6%
Now. The Nasdaq's move on this tape, and the 10-year. Yesterday's close stays in the sentence above.
GeneralConcept of the Day 1 minWhat contango actually says about fear
CONCEPT OF THE DAY
What contango actually says about fear
Why today : Today's vol curve is in contango: 9-day vol 14.2, one-month 16.5, three-month 18.4.
Contango means the market is charging more for insurance later than for insurance now. On a volatility curve, the three-month contract sits above the one-month contract. That is the ordinary state: sellers of protection demand extra pay for time, and nobody is scrambling for cover this week. The opposite shape is backwardation, when near-term protection is the expensive one. That shows up when a known event, or an actual shock, makes the next few days scarier than the next few months. A single calm print does not make the curve a forecast. Contango can persist right up to a data release and then flip for a session. What it rules out is the claim that the options market is already paying up for an imminent break. Use it as a regime check next to the level of VIX itself: a low VIX in contango is quiet, a low VIX in backwardation is a near-term event the headline number is hiding.
Over the next month, Goldman's new Buy and $69 target is the path: debt paydown and a cash-flow plan through 2030, not a chase of today's oil spike.
GS Buy $69RSI 61Above 50-day
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
52-week range
1 Oct: Goldman Sachs upgraded OXY to Buy from Neutral and lifted the target to $69 from $63 (Neil Mehta)The note cites enhanced oil recovery and a cash-flow improvement plan of about $4bn through 2030Aggregator close 57.84 on 1 Oct, versus the screener's 30 Sep close of 58.36
Target
$69.00
Invalidation: Brent closes back under $96 or Goldman pulls the Buy.
OXY between stop and target57.84
069
Stop on the left, target on the right. Red and green mark those ends only. The tick is the last price.
TradingView's price for OXY. It is not the last print in this letter.
Into the FY27 guide, 3-6% local-currency growth and at least $9.5bn of cash returns are the claim; the 1 Oct gap already spent much of the surprise.
Q4 beatFY27 guide 3–6%Gap day
Fundamentals
8/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
9/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
3/10
1 Oct: Q4 revenue $18.68bn, above the $17.75–18.40bn guide; bookings $22.17bnFY27 outlook: local-currency revenue growth 3–6%, GAAP EPS $14.39–$14.81, at least $9.5bn returned to shareholdersQuarterly dividend raised 5% to $1.71, payable 13 Nov 2026
Into the next travel quarter, KeyBanc's new Overweight and $191 target says hotel supply can add a second leg while the shares still sit on the 50-day.
KeyBanc OW $191Under 50-day
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
4/10
52-week range
1 Oct: KeyBanc analyst Sergio Segura upgraded ABNB to Overweight from Sector Weight with a $191 targetThe note cites resilient core growth and hotel bookings as a second revenue streamAggregator close 160.47 on 1 Oct, up from the screener's 30 Sep close of 156.96
Target
$191.00
Invalidation: A close under $150, or KeyBanc drops Overweight.
ABNB between stop and target160.47
0191
Stop on the left, target on the right. Red and green mark those ends only. The tick is the last price.
TradingView's price for ABNB. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 1 min
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 5 minXLK and SMH still clear every buy rule, but both are already held, so they stay. XLB is under its 50-day and comes off the book.
TREND FOLLOW
XLK and SMH still clear every buy rule, but both are already held, so they stay. XLB is under its 50-day and comes off the book.
6 of 17 priced universe names closed above their 50-day. QQQ history returned only 18 bars, so it was dropped from the count rather than scored.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
XLK
Technology Select Sector SPDR
6.5
+0.64%
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
6.5
+0.35%
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR
5
-0.06%
XLV
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
5
-1.35%
XBI
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
5
+0.55%
XLB
Materials Select Sector SPDR
3
-0.81%
XLKTECHNOLOGYHOLD🔥 8-issue streak
Technology Select Sector SPDR
6.5/10Conviction
$195.75
▲ +0.64%
Stay long XLK while it holds the 50-day. This is an existing position, not a fresh add: relative strength versus SPY is still the confirmation.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo fresh sector headline; the rule is the Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sClose 195.75 is 6.4% above a rising 50-day
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
8/10
Tech leadership is the trend itself; no new sector headline was required.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$184).
TradingView's price for XLK. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLK · 20d illustrative range
SMHTECHNOLOGYHOLD🔥 51-issue streak
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
6.5/10Conviction
$609.00
▲ +0.35%
Stay with SMH while it holds the 50-day. Semis still beat SPY over 20 sessions; the book already owns it, so this is a hold.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sThe catalyst is the trend, not a new headlRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sClose 609 is 6.7% above the 50-day; RS vs
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
8/10
Semiconductor relative strength is intact; no new single-name catalyst was used.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$571).
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
SMH · 20d illustrative range
XLEENERGYHOLD🔥 51-issue streak
Energy Select Sector SPDR
5/10Conviction
$61.50
▼ -0.06%
Hold XLE: it is still above a rising 50-day, but 20-day strength versus SPY has turned negative, so it is no longer a fresh buy.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based sleeve; the oil headline is noRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sAbove the 50-day, but 20-day RS versus SPY
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
—
Narrative
—
Technicals
5/10
Brent reclaimed $100 on 1 Oct; the ETF history itself last prints 30 Sep.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$60.37).
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
Hold XLV while it stays above the 50-day. Relative strength versus SPY is no longer positive, so it does not earn a new buy.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sClose is 1.2% above the 50-day; RS vs SPY
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
—
Narrative
—
Technicals
5/10
No fresh health-care catalyst was required for a hold-above-the-50-day.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$166).
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
XBIHEALTH CAREHOLD🔥 50-issue streak
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
5/10Conviction
$157.68
▲ +0.55%
Hold XBI by a thin margin: the close is only 0.3% above the 50-day and relative strength versus SPY is slightly negative.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sBarely above the 50-day; RS vs SPY is −0.4
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
—
Narrative
—
Technicals
5/10
The hold is the 50-day test, not a biotech headline.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$157.24).
TradingView's price for XBI. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLBMATERIALSEXIT🔥 50-issue streak
Materials Select Sector SPDR
3/10Conviction
$48.70
▼ -0.81%
Exit XLB. The close is 5.3% under the 50-day, so the trend rule is done regardless of the copper headline.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sClose 48.70 is 5.3% under the 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
—
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
The exit is the 50-day break, not a materials news item.
Invalidation: Already met: a close under the 50-day (~$51.43).
TradingView's price for XLB. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minUS spot bitcoin ETFs posted a $148.7m outflow that ended a nine-day, roughly $3bn streak. Bitcoin is $85,964 (+2.0%) and ether is $2,728.73.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
US spot bitcoin ETFs posted a $148.7m outflow that ended a nine-day, roughly $3bn streak. Bitcoin is $85,964 (+2.0%) and ether is $2,728.73.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
5
+1.97%
ETH-USD
Ether
4.7
+0.52%
BTC-USDHOLD🔥 34-issue streak
Bitcoin
5/10Conviction
$85964.00
▲ +1.97%
Into the next few sessions, a $148.7m spot-ETF outflow that ended a nine-day streak is the tell: price can bounce, the flow bid just paused.
No issuer cash-flow statement applies to tSpot ETFs shed $148.7m and broke a nine-daThe flow break is the near-term event, andThe institutional bid paused; YTD flows ar85,964 is +2.0% on the day and still insid
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
4/10
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
6/10
30 Sep: US spot bitcoin ETFs saw $148.7m of net outflows, ending nine inflow daysFBTC −$125.6m, IBIT −$9.5mAggregator close 85,964 on 2 Oct, +2.0% from 84,305
Invalidation: Two more outflow sessions and a close under $80,000.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Into the next few sessions ether should track bitcoin's flow pause, not a network event; no separate ether-ETF figure was cited today.
No protocol cash-flow figure was pulled thNo cited US spot-ether ETF flow this run.The live catalyst is bitcoin's flow break,Ether is the beta leg of the same institut2,728.73 is +0.5% and not a breakout.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
5/10
No dated ether-specific ETF print in this run's sourcesAggregator close 2,728.73 on 2 Oct, +0.52% from 2,714.58
Invalidation: A close under $2,500 while bitcoin holds its range.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 1 minBrent settled at $100.82 (+4.6%) after China halted fuel exports. Gold at $4,209 and copper at $6.64 did not confirm a broad commodity bid.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Brent settled at $100.82 (+4.6%) after China halted fuel exports. Gold at $4,209 and copper at $6.64 did not confirm a broad commodity bid.
Brent's jump is a products story: Gulf crude exports have been recovering while China pulled refined fuel off the export market. Gold (−0.1% to $4,209) and…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BZ=F
Brent
6.5
+4.57%
BrentENERGYWATCH
BZ=F
6.5/10Conviction
$100.82
▲ +4.57%
Into the next sessions the bid is refined fuel, not a fresh Hormuz closure: China halted product exports and Brent reclaimed $100.
Brent $100.82China export halt
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
6/10
1 Oct: Chinese refiners suspended fuel exports beyond Hong Kong and MacauBZ=F closed 100.82 on 1 Oct, up 4.57% from 96.41Investing.com: Brent had been sliding toward $96.70 on recovering Gulf exports before the China headline
Invalidation: A daily Brent close back under $96, the pre-headline low.
TradingView's price for BZ=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 6 min30d hit rate 50%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech US
+3.56%
Named holdings. 141 smaller positions (24.89%) are off this picture.
Tech US
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$103557.69
Cash
$11059.77
P&L
$3557.69 (+3.56%)
Realized P&L
$-3536.17
TWR
+2.95%
Sharpe
0.85
Max DD
-2.39%
Sortino
2.25
Calmar
6.54
Ann. return
+15.65%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions89%
Cash11%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
OXY
3.82
pending
Buy
ACN
1.04
pending
Buy
ABNB
1.38
pending
Sell
HAL
53.7
pending
Sell
HOOD
2.24
pending
Sell
FIVE
1.12
pending
Sell
ADBE
1.02
pending
Sell
CRM
1.76
pending
Sell
ORCL
1.54
pending
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$9612.02
+12.8%
XOM ×129
$21103.60
+7.2%
UNH ×8.49
$3101.50
-14.3%
INTC ×14.08
$1689.68
+39.0%
MSFT ×11.91
$6108.73
+26.0%
AMZN ×5.95
$1477.64
-8.1%
CVX ×7.29
$1510.15
+4.2%
FRO ×38.46
$1982.20
+27.5%
+51 more holdings
Track Record
16 On Track · 10 Lagging · 6 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
VLO (2026-09-02)
7/10
+12.8%
On Track
FRO (2026-09-02)
7/10
+16.3%
On Track
DELL (2026-09-03)
7.5/10
+10.1%
On Track
HAL (2026-09-03)
6.5/10
-15.3%
Stopped Out
HOOD (2026-09-04)
7/10
-10.9%
Stopped Out
RTX (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
-7.9%
Lagging
APH (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
+3.5%
On Track
DUOL (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
-5.1%
Lagging
FIVE (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
-12.3%
Stopped Out
PSX (2026-09-07)
7/10
+3.6%
On Track
ADBE (2026-09-07)
6.5/10
-9.5%
Stopped Out
CRM (2026-09-08)
7/10
-8.7%
Stopped Out
CVX (2026-09-08)
7/10
-0.7%
Lagging
MRK (2026-09-10)
7.2/10
-2.5%
Lagging
ORCL (2026-09-11)
7.2/10
-15.0%
Stopped Out
LHX (2026-09-15)
6/10
-2.9%
Lagging
CRWD (2026-09-15)
7.1/10
+13.1%
On Track
IREN (2026-09-16)
6/10
-2.2%
Lagging
LITE (2026-09-17)
7/10
+13.8%
On Track
HAE (2026-09-18)
6.8/10
-3.0%
Lagging
JBHT (2026-09-18)
6.5/10
-4.0%
Lagging
LRCX (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
+18.1%
On Track
COIN (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
-2.5%
Lagging
ACN (2026-09-20)
7/10
+17.1%
On Track
TLN (2026-09-20)
6.8/10
+10.5%
On Track
SNPS (2026-09-26)
7/10
+15.2%
On Track
JCI (2026-09-26)
7/10
+1.1%
On Track
SNX (2026-09-28)
7.3/10
+3.3%
On Track
TFX (2026-09-28)
6.3/10
+3.3%
On Track
LLY (2026-09-28)
7.3/10
-2.8%
Lagging
NVDA (2026-09-29)
6.2/10
+0.9%
On Track
MU (2026-10-01)
6.8/10
+3.0%
On Track
Euro Only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$97821.52
Cash
$14987.73
P&L
$-2178.48 (-0.22%)
Realized P&L
$-42835.98
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes were unavailable — every position below is marked at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702
$702.62
—
TTE.PA ×368
$27276.04
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
—
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
—
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
—
GLE.PA ×22.15
$1755.04
—
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
—
NWG.L ×191
$1346.17
—
+47 more holdings
Penny Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$295905.83
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$195905.83 (+195.91%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578
$203055.90
+5306.8%
PYPD ×1564
$8400.10
+21.0%
STXS ×2738
$3285.67
-7.6%
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$35000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes were unavailable — every position below is marked at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65
$25000.00
—
IEF ×108
$10000.00
—
DBC ×654
$20000.00
—
SPLV ×132
$10000.00
—
Trend Follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$73446.40
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Sell
XLB
93.53
pending
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes were unavailable — every position below is marked at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86
$5539.52
—
XLK ×11.57
$2271.54
—
SMH ×5.03
$2990.61
—
XLV ×30.27
$5207.77
—
XBI ×32
$5207.77
—
XLB ×93.53
$4954.78
—
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$26717.65
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes were unavailable — every position below is marked at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×206
$26795.83
—
GLD ×30.1
$11738.20
—
CPER ×150
$5929.12
—
SLV ×93.58
$5545.24
—
PPLT ×66.63
$1111.38
—
BNO ×35.14
$1850.57
—
URA ×23.16
$1066.93
—
UGA ×26.78
$3377.87
—
+11 more holdings
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$32370.73
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes were unavailable — every position below is marked at cost, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5510
$35015.45
—
ETH-USD ×14.91
$28949.67
—
SOL-USD ×26.81
$2795.91
—
XRP-USD ×628
$868.24
—
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +50.00%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.