market_pulse — index_panel asOf is 2026-10-01 (S&P 7666.45, +0.19%). prices.json Friday closes are 2026-10-02 (S&P 7722.72, +0.73%). The band uses the Friday quote. The panel is copied as returned.
market_pulse — FTSE 100 aggregator history change was -0.16% to 10462. dpa reported +0.32%. Sign disagreed, so change_pct uses +0.32 and the price stays the aggregator close.
market_pulse — index_ladder was absent from pulse_ready because quote bodies expose close rather than price. event_radar is empty: the calendar has no economic rows. ^FTSEMIB, rough rice, cocoa, cotton and sugar had no close.
yesterday_retrospective — Sector SPDR histories do not include the Friday session, so capital rotation uses the equity-versus-yield and equity-versus-oil pairs rather than a Friday sector ranking. /movers is dated 2026-09-30, so movers were omitted. Shanghai and KOSPI did not have a Friday print.
forex_rebalancing — Squawk-alert feed returned 401 (account key required), so same-day FX intervention checks fell back to the central-bank and news pass. Only USD cleared a checkable edge versus EUR.
us_equity_ideas — NVDA /fundamentals returned a 2020-08-19 filing, so that factor is null. HPE fundamentals are the 2025-12-18 SEC extract, which predates the 2026 AI ramp. Aggregator /news did not carry the Oct 2 Morgan Stanley or Daiwa items; those are web-sourced.
eu_equity_ideas — eu_fundamentals_gap: /fundamentals/STLAP.PA returned no_data_any_source. Paris history returned one row, so price_change_pct is null.
penny_plays — screener unavailable or empty for category=penny — fell back to web search; penny universe may not be seeded yet. No sub-$5 name cleared the balance-sheet bar, so the section is empty.
commodities_outlook — BZ=F history ends 2026-10-01 at 100.82 (+4.57%). Friday crude headlines said oil eased, and that session is not in the futures history. Recommendation stays WATCH, not BUY. CL=F, SI=F and several ag futures are stale or empty.
crypto_landscape — ETF flow figures are web-sourced (TokenPost, Oct 2), not an aggregator series. Weekend prices are CoinGecko marks for 2026-10-03.
trend_follow — Sector ETF histories used for the 50- and 200-day end on 2026-09-30. Live closes are 2026-10-02. The test is that live close versus the Sep 30 average. QQQ history has 18 rows, so it failed the 200-day test and was skipped.
risk_cover_playbook — Stock-bond correlation, pairwise sector correlation, MOVE and the put/call ratio were not priced cleanly this run and are omitted. VIX3M and VIX9D last printed 2026-09-30; Friday VIX is 15.31.
portfolio_reality_check — Tech US performance and positions came back at zero NAV and zero holdings, against 103557.69 and 59 holdings in the prior issue. No BUY was sized off a zero cash balance. Euro, penny, anti-fragile, trend, commodities and crypto positions are price_estimated. Hit rate is only over the names with a fresh price this run, not the full EU book. Squawk was not used.
Blended P&L withheld: none of the 7 books has a live quote that agrees with its time-weighted return. Hit rate is 6 of 11 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 15.7%, average loss -3.8%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 8 minVIX on the tape is 15.31 and HY OAS is 324bp, while only 45.39% of the S&P sits above its fifty-day. The 10-year is 5.29%.
MARKET PULSE
Friday's S&P close is 7722.72, up 0.73%, and the index is 1.84% under its high. The STOXX rose 0.75% while the Hang Seng fell 2.60%.
Risk-on, concentrated constructive +1 Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
AIVIX on the tape is 15.31 and HY OAS is 324bp, while only 45.39% of the S&P sits above its fifty-day. The 10-year is 5.29%.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,722.72
yday 7,666.71
▲ +0.73%
NASDAQ Data
27,190.86
yday 26,871.60
▲ +1.19%
Nasdaq 100 Data
30,807.93
▲ +1.00%
Dow Jones Data
51,176.96
yday 50,926.56
▲ +0.49%
Russell 2K Data
2,832.90
yday 2,806.63
▲ +0.94%
Euro Stoxx 50 Data
6,238.50
▲ +0.16%
STOXX 600 Data
631.35
▲ +0.75%
DAX Data
25,231.20
▲ +0.38%
CAC 40 Data
7,897.19
▲ +0.13%
FTSE 100 Data
10,462.00
▲ +0.32%
Nikkei 225 Data
68,309.46
yday 68,309.46
▼ -0.94%
Hang Seng Data
23,972.29
▼ -2.60%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
4,162.30
yday 4,209.10
▼ -1.20%
Silver Data
59.98
yday 61.24
▼ -0.62%
Copper Data
6.49
yday 6.64
▼ -0.02%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data
90.58
yday 90.58
▲ +1.05%
Brent Data
100.82
yday 100.82
▲ +4.57%
Natural gas Data
3.03
yday 3.03
▼ -3.13%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
84,557.00
yday 85,964.00
▼ -1.64%
Ether Data
2,677.20
yday 2,728.73
▼ -1.89%
Solana Data
119.65
yday 121.87
▼ -1.82%
US spot Bitcoin ETFs AI
+120.3 $m
yday -148.7 $m
Inbound
US spot Ether ETFs AI
-64.7 $m
Outbound
Rates
US 2Y Data
4.78
yday 4.89
-10bp
US 10Y Data
5.29
yday 5.26
+3bp
US 30Y Data
5.61
yday 5.59
-3bp
2s10s spread Data
46.00
yday 37.00
+5bp
10Y-3M spread Data
109.00
yday 109.00
+2bp
Credit
US HY OAS Data
324.00
yday 308.00
+12bp
Baa-10Y spread Data
147.00
yday 146.00
+1bp
IG OAS Data
0.86 pct
yday 84.00 bp
calm
HY minus IG OAS Data
238.00 bp
yday 224.00 bp
watch
Volatility
VIX Data
15.31
yday 16.50
-1.19 (-7.2%)
VIX/VIX3M Data
0.83 ratio
yday 0.90 ratio
calm
VIX9D/VIX Data
0.93 ratio
yday 0.86 ratio
calm
Dollar & FX
US Dollar Index (DXY) Data
101.28
yday 101.28
+0.09 (+0.1%)
EUR/USD Data
1.13
yday 1.13
▼ -0.61%
Dollar index 5-session change Data
1.05 pct
watch
Breadth
% > 50d Data
45.4%
yday 45.4%
—
% > 200d Data
60.1%
yday 60.1%
—
Adv / Dec Data
207 / 216
yday 206 / 217
—
New hi / lo Data
33 / 19
yday 33 / 19
—
SPY−RSP 1d Data
0.0pp
yday 0.0pp
—
SPY−RSP 5d Data
+3.06pp
yday +3.06pp
—
SPY−RSP 21d Data
+5.37pp
yday +5.37pp
—
% from 52w Data
-1.84%
yday -1.78%
—
Europe % > SMA50 Data
37.9%
yday 37.9%
—
Europe % > SMA200 Data
73.7%
yday 73.7%
—
Europe % advancing Data
41.0%
yday 41.0%
—
Liquidity
SOFR minus fed funds Data
-0.01 pp
calm
Initial claims Data
197,000.00 claims
yday 197,000.00 persons
calm
Cover checks
VIX Data
15.31 / 25.00
yday 16.50
Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread Data
0.46 / -0.20
yday 37.00
Not Triggered
HY OAS Data
324.00 / 500.00
yday 308.00
Not Triggered
SPX drawdown from high Data
-1.84 / -10.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AIEquities rose into a 5.29% 10-year and Brent is still a $100 market, which is growth with inflation, not a bust. Long bonds stay at zero. Gold and the broad commodity sleeve do the inflation work. Cash stays 35% because the Oct 7 permit call and Oct 14 CPI can still flip the quad
AIZero of four hard triggers are fired. The live risks are Brent's Oct 7 permit call and French OATs, not a VIX event. HY OAS at 324bp is the internal on watch. The book stays an inflationary-boom mix: gold, commodities, a short bond sleeve, and no long TLT.
Each symbol is compared with the S&P 500, not with its own price. Left to right (RS-ratio) is relative strength: above 100 means it has been stronger than the market. Bottom to top (RS-momentum) is whether that lead is growing: above 100 means it is getting stronger. Leading, top right, is strong and still improving. Weakening, bottom right, is still ahead but fading. Lagging, bottom left, is behind and still losing ground. Improving, top left, is behind but turning up. Leadership usually moves clockwise. The list and the chart are the same symbols.
This heatmap is TradingView, with its own data and its mark left in place. It is not the numbers in this letter. The other panels load when you choose them. If a panel is empty, their data-set name changed; the charts above still stand.
Global indices
9/11 above 200d · 4/11 above 50d · 8/11 up today · 3 within 3% of 52w high · best 1m: Nasdaq Composite +4.1% · worst 1m: CAC 40 -7.1%
Index
Last
1d
5d
1m
3m
YTD
vs 52w hi
vs 200d
vs 50d
RS
United States
S&P 500
7,722.72
+0.73%
-0.27%
+0.14%
+2.96%
+12.81%
-0.81%
+7.46%
+1.20%
bench.
Nasdaq-100
30,807.93
+1.00%
+1.07%
+3.93%
+3.47%
+22.01%
0.00%
+12.52%
+5.04%
Leading103.6
Nasdaq Composite
27,190.86
+1.19%
+0.45%
+4.06%
+4.49%
+16.99%
-0.20%
+10.62%
+3.64%
Leading102.4
Dow Jones Industrial
51,176.96
+0.49%
-1.26%
-4.28%
-0.61%
+6.48%
-5.84%
+2.37%
-2.70%
Lagging96.1
Russell 2000
2,832.9
+0.94%
-0.16%
-5.76%
-2.92%
+14.14%
-7.68%
+2.85%
-3.80%
Lagging95.0
Europe
Euro Stoxx 50
6,238.5
+0.16%
-1.26%
-3.59%
+0.11%
+7.63%
-4.77%
+2.94%
-2.19%
Lagging96.7
DAX
25,231.2
+0.38%
-0.29%
-3.30%
+0.36%
+3.02%
-4.57%
+1.95%
-1.83%
Lagging97.1
CAC 40
7,897.19
+0.13%
-2.08%
-7.11%
-5.99%
-3.10%
-9.50%
-4.10%
-5.88%
Lagging92.8
FTSE 100
10,462
-0.16%
-1.85%
-2.66%
+0.32%
+5.34%
-4.11%
+0.49%
-2.63%
Lagging96.3
Asia
Nikkei 225
68,309.46
-0.94%
+5.06%
0.00%
+3.47%
+35.70%
-5.61%
+15.10%
+3.26%
Improving100.0
Hang Seng
23,972.29
-2.60%
-3.15%
-5.61%
-3.02%
-6.47%
-14.29%
-6.33%
-4.42%
Lagging95.2
daily close, local currency (not FX-adjusted); 52w high uses closes
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 2 minFriday's rebound was the 29,000 payroll print, which cut October hike odds, even as Treasury yields reversed higher and Asia had already sold off.
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Friday's rebound was the 29,000 payroll print, which cut October hike odds, even as Treasury yields reversed higher and Asia had already sold off.
How Yesterday Unfolded
Asia Asia closed before the US jobs report. The Nikkei fell 0.94% to 68309.46 and the Hang Seng fell 2.60% to 23972.29, with China on holiday and its fuel-export halt still the regional stress.
Europe Europe rebounded once oil eased. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.75% to 631.35. The DAX rose 0.38% and the CAC rose 0.13% on the aggregator; a newswire put the CAC at +0.79% and the FTSE at +0.32%.
US The S&P rose 0.73% to 7722.72, the Nasdaq 1.19% to 27190.86 and the Russell 0.94% after payrolls rose only 29,000 and unemployment ticked to 4.2%. Yields dipped, then finished higher.
Early Treasury bid → Equities, with yields back up · S&P +0.73% and Nasdaq +1.19% while Reuters had the 10-year finishing up about 4.7bp at 5.281% after an initial drop.
The soft payroll print was bought in stocks, but the bond selloff resumed the same session.
Oil-shock positioning → Broader equities · Stoxx 600 +0.75% as dpa reported oil falling on EU stockpile talks, after Brent's Thursday settle at 100.82.
The fuel-export shock did not extend into a second day of equity selling once crude eased.
Key Drivers
September payrolls rose only 29,000 — Unemployment rose to 4.2% versus a 4.1% consensus, and traders marked down an October Fed hike.
French yields stayed near multi-year highs — The 10-year OAT eased on the day to about 4.84% after nearly touching 5%, with the spread over Bunds still near 140bp.
Bridge to Today
The next tell is whether Monday extends the equity bounce or whether Brent's Oct 7 permit decision and the 5.29% 10-year take it back.
Nasdaq Composite+1.19% today
−3%+3%
US 10Y5.29%
3%6%
Now. The Nasdaq's move on this tape, and the 10-year. Yesterday's close stays in the sentence above.
GeneralConcept of the Day 1 minWhat the federal funds rate actually is
CONCEPT OF THE DAY
What the federal funds rate actually is
Why today : Friday's payroll miss changed October meeting odds. The funds rate itself did not move.
The federal funds rate is the interest rate US banks charge each other for overnight reserves. The Fed does not set every loan in the economy. It sets a target range and steers the market rate into that range with its balance sheet and administered rates. When the funds rate rises, cash and short bills pay more, and the discount rate on future profits rises with it. When the Fed holds, the market stops repricing the front end and the fight moves to whether the next meeting hikes, pauses, or cuts. A single payrolls print does not move the funds rate by itself. It moves the odds of what the committee will do at the next meeting. The useful habit is to separate the rate already in force from the meeting still ahead. The first is a level. The second is a probability. Mixing them is how a soft jobs report gets described as a cut that has not been delivered.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 5 minSemiconductors still clear both moving averages and beat SPY. Health care and biotech lost the 50-day on the latest close and come off.
TREND FOLLOW
Semiconductors still clear both moving averages and beat SPY. Health care and biotech lost the 50-day on the latest close and come off.
4 of 18 universe names are above their 50-day on the latest close, and both BUY passes are semiconductors.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
XLK
Technology Select Sector SPDR
7
+2.07%
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
7
+3.55%
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR
5.5
+2.15%
XLV
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
4
-1.33%
XBI
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
4
-2.06%
XLB
Materials Select Sector SPDR
3
+0.33%
XLKTECHNOLOGYBUY🔥 9-issue streak
Technology Select Sector SPDR
7/10Conviction
$199.81
▲ +2.07%
Stay long the tech sleeve while XLK holds a rising 50-day and keeps beating SPY. Friday's close is 199.81.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sOct 2 AI-tape bid, led by the NVDA call.Tech leadership is consensus, and RS is st199.81 is above a 184 50-day and a 161 200
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
8/10
Oct 2 semiconductor bid after Morgan Stanley restored NVDA as its top pick.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day near $184.
TradingView's price for XLK. It is not the last print in this letter.
Semiconductors are the trend book. SMH at 630.60 is well above its 50-day, and relative strength versus SPY is still the confirmation.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sSame Oct 2 semiconductor bid as XLK.Semis are the concentrated leadership slee630.60 vs a 571 50-day and a 486 200-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
8/10
Oct 2 chip bid followed the Morgan Stanley NVDA top-pick note.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day near $571.
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLE is still above its 50-day, but 20-day strength versus SPY is negative, so this is a hold, not a new add.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sOct 7 permit call is live; RS is not.Rules-based sleeve — narrative not scored.Above the 50-day, but RS versus SPY is -2.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
6/10
Brent's Oct 7 export-permit decision is the energy catalyst, not a fresh relative-strength break.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day near $60.37.
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLE · 20d illustrative range
XLVHEALTH CAREEXIT🔥 51-issue streak
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
4/10Conviction
$166.18
▼ -1.33%
Friday's 166.18 close is through the 50-day. The trend rule exits health care rather than waiting for a deeper drawdown.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo fresh sector catalyst; the rule is the Rules-based sleeve — narrative not scored.166.18 is a fraction under the 166.42 50-d
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
—
Narrative
—
Technicals
4/10
The exit is the 50-day break, not a new health-care headline.
Invalidation: A close back above the 50-day near $166.42 would put it back on the watchlist.
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
XBIHEALTH CAREEXIT🔥 51-issue streak
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
4/10Conviction
$154.43
▼ -2.06%
Biotech lost its 50-day on the latest close. Exit the sleeve. A later PDUFA calendar is not a reason to override the rule.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo fresh biotech catalyst used to overrideRules-based sleeve — narrative not scored.154.43 is below the 157.24 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
—
Narrative
—
Technicals
4/10
Exit is the close at 154.43 versus a 157.24 50-day.
Invalidation: Reclaiming the 50-day near $157 on a daily close.
TradingView's price for XBI. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLBMATERIALSEXIT🔥 51-issue streak
Materials Select Sector SPDR
3/10Conviction
$48.86
▲ +0.33%
Materials remain below a falling 50-day. The exit stays on. A one-day bounce to 48.86 does not repair the trend.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo fresh materials catalyst. The trend is Rules-based sleeve — narrative not scored.48.86 is about 5% under the 51.43 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
—
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
Still below the 50-day at 51.43. The exit is unchanged.
Invalidation: A daily close back above the 50-day near $51.43.
TradingView's price for XLB. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minUS spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $120.25m on Oct 2 while Ether ETFs lost $64.69m. Bitcoin is 84557, Ether 2677.20, both still above their 50-day.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $120.25m on Oct 2 while Ether ETFs lost $64.69m. Bitcoin is 84557, Ether 2677.20, both still above their 50-day.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
5.8
-1.64%
ETH-USD
Ether
4.8
-1.89%
BTC-USDHOLD🔥 35-issue streak
Bitcoin
5.8/10Conviction
$84557.00
▼ -1.64%
Into next week, a $120m spot-ETF inflow can steady Bitcoin above its 50-day if the weekend dip under $85k does not extend.
No issuer cash-flow series applies to BTC.Oct 2 spot-ETF net inflow was $120.25m.Inflows help, but there is no new product Institutional bid is selective, not broad.Above the 50- and 200-day; weekend -1.64%.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
6/10
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $120.25m of net inflows on Oct 2.
Invalidation: A daily close under the 50-day near $75,882.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Ether lags while spot ETFs bleed. Another outflow day and ETH fails to confirm Bitcoin's inflow bid.
No clean issuer fundamental for ETH today.Oct 2 spot-ETF net outflow was $64.69m.Outflows are the catalyst, and they are neETH is the leg institutions are reducing.Still above its 50-day; 200-day sample is
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
4/10
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
6/10
US spot Ether ETFs recorded $64.69m of net outflows on Oct 2.
Invalidation: A daily close under the 50-day near $2,380.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 1 minBrent's last settle is $100.82 on the Oct 1 halt, and the forward test is whether Beijing restores export permits after Oct 7.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Brent's last settle is $100.82 on the Oct 1 halt, and the forward test is whether Beijing restores export permits after Oct 7.
No clear cross-commodity theme today — moves appear idiosyncratic.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BZ=F
Brent
6.2
+4.57%
BrentENERGYWATCH🔥 2-issue streak
BZ=F
6.2/10Conviction
$100.82
▲ +4.57%
Into the Oct 7 permit call, Brent stays a tightness trade: China has not cleared October fuel exports beyond Hong Kong and Macau.
Export halt tightens Asian diesel, gasolinNo COT or positioning series priced today.Oct 7 is the dated permit decision.War-constrained fuel markets plus a China Oct 1 settle +4.57%; Friday crude headline
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
Chinese refiners suspended October product exports beyond Hong Kong and Macau, with permits unresolved after the Oct 7 holiday.
Invalidation: Brent settles back under $96, the Sep 30 close.
TradingView's price for BZ=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 5 min30d hit rate 55%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
No book with a live quote is included in this bar.
Named holdings. 82 smaller positions (22.67%) are off this picture.
Claude-Folio
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
NVDA
0.0000
—
Buy
HPE
0.0000
—
Track Record
1 On Track
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
NVDA (2026-09-29)
7/10
+2.2%
On Track
Euro-only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$97821.52
Cash
$14987.73
P&L
$-2178.48 (-0.22%)
Realized P&L
$-42835.98
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
STLAP.PA
77.21
pending
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes on this book came back estimated at cost, so unrealized P&L is not a fresh mark.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702
$702.62
—
TTE.PA ×368
$27276.04
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
—
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
—
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
—
GLE.PA ×22.15
$1755.04
—
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
—
NWG.L ×191
$1346.17
—
+47 more holdings
Penny-Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes on this book came back estimated at cost, so unrealized P&L is not a fresh mark.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578
$3755.55
—
PYPD ×1564
$6940.50
—
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
—
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$35000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes on this book came back estimated at cost, so unrealized P&L is not a fresh mark.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65
$25000.00
—
IEF ×108
$10000.00
—
DBC ×654
$20000.00
—
SPLV ×132
$10000.00
—
Trend-follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$73446.40
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
XLK
11.03
pending
Buy
SMH
3.49
pending
Sell
XLV
30.27
pending
Sell
XBI
32
pending
Sell
XLB
93.53
pending
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes on this book came back estimated at cost, so unrealized P&L is not a fresh mark.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86
$5539.52
—
XLK ×11.57
$2271.54
—
SMH ×5.03
$2990.61
—
XLV ×30.27
$5207.77
—
XBI ×32
$5207.77
—
XLB ×93.53
$4954.78
—
Track Record
2 On Track · 4 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
XLK (2026-09-05)
7/10
+1.8%
On Track
SMH (2026-09-03)
6.5/10
+6.2%
On Track
XLE (2026-09-03)
5/10
-0.4%
Lagging
XLV (2026-09-12)
5/10
-3.4%
Lagging
XBI (2026-09-12)
5/10
-5.1%
Lagging
XLB (2026-09-13)
3/10
-7.8%
Lagging
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$26717.65
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes on this book came back estimated at cost, so unrealized P&L is not a fresh mark.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×206
$26795.83
—
GLD ×30.1
$11738.20
—
CPER ×150
$5929.12
—
SLV ×93.58
$5545.24
—
PPLT ×66.63
$1111.38
—
BNO ×35.14
$1850.57
—
URA ×23.16
$1066.93
—
UGA ×26.78
$3377.87
—
+11 more holdings
Track Record
1 On Track · 1 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
USO (2026-09-04)
6/10
+13.4%
On Track
GLD (2026-09-29)
6/10
-2.5%
Lagging
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$32370.73
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes on this book came back estimated at cost, so unrealized P&L is not a fresh mark.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5510
$35015.45
—
ETH-USD ×14.91
$28949.67
—
SOL-USD ×26.81
$2795.91
—
XRP-USD ×628
$868.24
—
Track Record
2 On Track
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BTC-USD (2026-09-04)
6/10
+33.0%
On Track
ETH-USD (2026-09-03)
5.5/10
+37.8%
On Track
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +54.50%
Glossary
Fed funds rate
The federal funds rate is the interest rate US banks charge each other for overnight reserves.
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.