market_pulse — index_analytics SPX close is 7666.45 versus the price tape at 7722.72 for 2026-10-02. Prose uses the price tape and the panel; the analytics block is copied unchanged, including its -1.84% distance from the high.
market_pulse — pulse_ready.json had no event_radar and no index_ladder block, so both are omitted.
market_pulse — Prepass commodity spots for CL=F, BZ=F and HG=F were stale (prior session). Index-band and Brent prices use the Oct 2 history closes: WTI 91.11, Brent 102.25, copper 6.549.
yesterday_retrospective — GET /movers returned HTTP 400, so movers are omitted. This Sunday run has no new cash session after Friday, so presentation is skip.
forex_rebalancing — Squawk-alert feed unavailable (HTTP 401) — fell back to central-bank web search for same-day FX events. No fresh intervention rhetoric found, so the USD ladder is rung 0.
us_equity_ideas — Aggregator /news/HPE did not return the Oct 2 Vultr order; the catalyst is from the Yahoo and GuruFocus reports cited on the idea.
eu_equity_ideas — Screener category=eu returned 28 names and none had a company-specific catalyst inside 48 hours that cleared the buy bar. Zero ideas.
penny_plays — Screener category=penny returned an empty universe — penny list looks unseeded. Zero ideas rather than a web-search pad.
trend_follow — QQQ history produced an implausible 50-day (258 versus a 737 close), so QQQ was dropped from the rule screen instead of published as a buy.
risk_cover_playbook — Average pairwise sector correlation, MOVE, put/call and the DXY 5-session rate were not computed this run. Claims are a single Sep 26 print, so no 4-week trend.
crypto_landscape — ETF flow figures are from Farside-tracking writeups, not an aggregator series, and Friday's issuer rows were still provisional in those writeups.
catalyst_calendar — calendar.json economic and earnings lists were empty, so the calendar is only the dated items already in this issue.
portfolio_reality_check — Anti-fragile, Euro, penny, commodities, crypto and trend marks came back price_estimated. Anti-fragile share counts used live aggregator prices times held quantity because the API market values were cost placeholders. Hit rate uses only Tech US positions with a live quote.
1 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 29 of 59 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 21.3%, average loss -7.7%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 9 minVIX is 15.31, down 1.19 points, and HY OAS is 324bp, up 12bp. The S&P closed at 7722.72, up 0.73%, while the Hang Seng fell 2.60% and the Nikkei fell 0.94% — Friday's strength was US-led, n…
MARKET PULSE
Only 45.39% of the S&P is above its medium-term average and SPY beat RSP by 0.0427pp, so Friday's advance was narrow. The index is 1.84% under its high.
Risk-on, concentrated constructive +1 Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
AIVIX is 15.31, down 1.19 points, and HY OAS is 324bp, up 12bp. The S&P closed at 7722.72, up 0.73%, while the Hang Seng fell 2.60% and the Nikkei fell 0.94% — Friday's strength was US-led, not global.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,722.72
yday 7,722.72
▲ +0.73%
NASDAQ Data
27,190.86
yday 27,190.86
▲ +1.19%
Nasdaq 100 Data
30,807.93
yday 30,807.93
▲ +1.00%
Dow Jones Data
51,176.96
yday 51,176.96
▲ +0.49%
Russell 2K Data
2,832.90
yday 2,832.90
▲ +0.94%
Euro Stoxx 50 Data
6,238.50
yday 6,238.50
▲ +0.16%
DAX Data
25,231.20
yday 25,231.20
▲ +0.38%
CAC 40 Data
7,897.19
yday 7,897.19
▲ +0.13%
FTSE 100 Data
10,462.00
yday 10,462.00
▼ -0.16%
Nikkei 225 Data
68,309.46
yday 68,309.46
▼ -0.94%
Hang Seng Data
23,972.29
yday 23,972.29
▼ -2.60%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
4,162.30
yday 4,162.30
▼ -1.20%
Silver Data
60.42
yday 59.98
▼ -1.35%
Copper Data
6.55
yday 6.49
▼ -1.32%
Platinum Data
1,700.00
▼ -0.78%
Palladium Data
1,172.20
▼ -3.64%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data
91.11
yday 90.58
▲ +0.59%
Brent Data
102.25
yday 100.82
▲ +1.42%
Natural gas Data
3.04
yday 3.03
▲ +0.10%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
84,926.00
yday 84,557.00
▲ +0.44%
Ether Data
2,695.87
yday 2,677.20
▲ +0.70%
Solana Data
120.72
yday 119.65
▲ +0.89%
US spot Bitcoin ETFs AI
+82.9 $m
yday +120.3 $m
Inbound
US spot Ether ETFs AI
-118.0 $m
yday -64.7 $m
Outbound
Rates
US 2Y Data
4.78
yday 4.78
-10bp
US 10Y Data
5.24
yday 5.29
-5bp
US 30Y Data
5.61
yday 5.61
-3bp
2s10s spread is the 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year yield, quoted in basis points.">2s10s spread Data
46.00
yday 46.00
+5bp
10Y-3M spread Data
109.00
yday 109.00
+2bp
Credit
US HY OAS Data
324.00
yday 324.00
+12bp
Baa-10Y spread Data
149.00
yday 147.00
+2bp
IG OAS Data
86.00 bp
yday 0.86 pct
calm
HY-IG spread differential Data
238.00 bp
watch
Volatility
VIX Data
15.31
yday 15.31
-1.19 (-7.2%)
VIX9D/VIX Data
0.93 ratio
yday 0.93 ratio
calm
VIX/VIX3M Data
0.83 ratio
yday 0.83 ratio
calm
Dollar & FX
US Dollar Index (DXY) Data
101.28
yday 101.28
+0.09 (+0.1%)
EUR/USD Data
1.13
yday 1.13
▼ -0.05%
Breadth
% > 50d Data
45.4%
yday 45.4%
—
% > 200d Data
60.1%
yday 60.1%
—
Adv / Dec Data
207 / 216
yday 207 / 216
—
New hi / lo Data
33 / 19
yday 33 / 19
—
SPY−RSP 1d Data
0.0pp
yday 0.0pp
—
SPY−RSP 5d Data
+3.06pp
yday +3.06pp
—
SPY−RSP 21d Data
+5.37pp
yday +5.37pp
—
% from 52w Data
-1.84%
yday -1.84%
—
Europe % > SMA50 Data
37.9%
yday 37.9%
—
Europe % > SMA200 Data
73.7%
yday 73.7%
—
Europe % advancing Data
41.0%
yday 41.0%
—
Stock-bond 20d correlation (SPY vs TLT) Data
0.59 ratio
stress
S&P 500 share above the 200-day Data
60.10 %
watch
Liquidity
SOFR minus effective fed funds Data
-1.00 bp
calm
Initial jobless claims Data
197,000.00 persons
calm
Cross-asset
Gold/copper ratio (GC=F / HG=F) Data
635.60 ratio
calm
Cover checks
VIX Data
15.31 / 25.00
yday 15.31
Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread Data
0.46 / -0.20
yday 46.00
Not Triggered
HY OAS Data
324.00 / 500.00
yday 324.00
Not Triggered
SPX drawdown from high Data
-1.84 / -10.00
yday -1.84 / -10.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Disinflationary boom
AIEquities rallied on a 29,000 payroll miss and gold fell 1.20% while the 10-year eased to 5.24%, which is a growth-with-cooling-inflation mix, not an oil-led inflation boom. Brent at 102.25 is a fuel-supply pocket, and copper fell with gold, so it does not confirm a broad inflatio
• Trim the high-beta technology adds if September CPI on Oct 14 puts the hike back above a coin-flip.
• Do not add crude beta on top of the China export curb; that sleeve is already the risk.
• Use GLD, TLT and SH as the listed hedges, and keep VIXY as a checklist instrument only.
AIZero of four hard triggers are fired, and the regime stays risk-on. Of 9 internals, 1 is stress, 2 are watch and 6 are calm. The stress item is the 20-day stock-bond correlation at 0.59, so duration is not hedging the equity book. The watch items are the HY-IG gap and 60.1% of the S&P above the 200-day, which still fits a narrow advance rather than a crash book.
Same bands as the 200-day, shown as context. This print does not vote.
Share of issues advancing48.4%
0%100%
A reading aid, not an engine vote. Under 40% is weak participation.
Regime score+1 constructive
−7+4
Sum of the five votes. The scale runs from −7 to +4.
VIX / VIX 3-month0.83 contango
0.701.30
Below 1 is the usual contango, which scores 0. Above 1 is backwardation and scores −1.
S&P distance from the 52-week high-1.84%
−15%at the high
A position, not a verdict. The all-time-high distance is the same number, so it is not drawn twice.
SPY minus equal-weight, 1 day+0.04 pp
equal-weight ledSPY led
Right means the cap-weighted index led. Blue is SPY, purple is equal-weight. Neither end is a buy.
New highs minus new lows+14
−40+40
Neither tail is a buy. The tick only says which extreme was larger.
XLK relative strength105.8 leading
90110
XLE relative strength101.3 weakening
90110
XLV relative strength100.5 leading
90110
XLC relative strength99.7 improving
90110
XLP relative strength96.0 lagging
90110
XLF relative strength94.5 lagging
90110
XLB relative strength94.2 lagging
90110
XLY relative strength94.1 lagging
90110
XLI relative strength93.8 lagging
90110
XLRE relative strength92.3 lagging
90110
XLU relative strength90.2 lagging
90110
Chart.js, from this issue and stored issues. Each axis is labeled on the chart.
Regime engine
constructivescore +1
The engine label is constructive with score 1. Breadth of 60.1% above the 200-day sits in the middle bucket, and the VIX term structure is in contango.
Each symbol is compared with the S&P 500, not with its own price. Left to right (RS-ratio) is relative strength: above 100 means it has been stronger than the market. Bottom to top (RS-momentum) is whether that lead is growing: above 100 means it is getting stronger. Leading, top right, is strong and still improving. Weakening, bottom right, is still ahead but fading. Lagging, bottom left, is behind and still losing ground. Improving, top left, is behind but turning up. Leadership usually moves clockwise. The list and the chart are the same symbols.
This heatmap is TradingView, with its own data and its mark left in place. It is not the numbers in this letter. The other panels load when you choose them. If a panel is empty, their data-set name changed; the charts above still stand.
Global indices
9/11 above 200d · 4/11 above 50d · 8/11 up today · 3 within 3% of 52w high · best 1m: Nasdaq Composite +4.1% · worst 1m: CAC 40 -7.1%
Index
Last
1d
5d
1m
3m
YTD
vs 52w hi
vs 200d
vs 50d
RS
United States
S&P 500
7,722.72
+0.73%
-0.27%
+0.14%
+2.96%
+12.81%
-0.81%
+7.46%
+1.20%
bench.
Nasdaq-100
30,807.93
+1.00%
+1.07%
+3.93%
+3.47%
+22.01%
0.00%
+12.52%
+5.04%
Leading103.6
Nasdaq Composite
27,190.86
+1.19%
+0.45%
+4.06%
+4.49%
+16.99%
-0.20%
+10.62%
+3.64%
Leading102.4
Dow Jones Industrial
51,176.96
+0.49%
-1.26%
-4.28%
-0.61%
+6.48%
-5.84%
+2.37%
-2.70%
Lagging96.1
Russell 2000
2,832.9
+0.94%
-0.16%
-5.76%
-2.92%
+14.14%
-7.68%
+2.85%
-3.80%
Lagging95.0
Europe
Euro Stoxx 50
6,238.5
+0.16%
-1.26%
-3.59%
+0.11%
+7.63%
-4.77%
+2.94%
-2.19%
Lagging96.7
DAX
25,231.2
+0.38%
-0.29%
-3.30%
+0.36%
+3.02%
-4.57%
+1.95%
-1.83%
Lagging97.1
CAC 40
7,897.19
+0.13%
-2.08%
-7.11%
-5.99%
-3.10%
-9.50%
-4.10%
-5.88%
Lagging92.8
FTSE 100
10,462
-0.16%
-1.85%
-2.66%
+0.32%
+5.34%
-4.11%
+0.49%
-2.63%
Lagging96.3
Asia
Nikkei 225
68,309.46
-0.94%
+5.06%
0.00%
+3.47%
+35.70%
-5.61%
+15.10%
+3.26%
Improving100.0
Hang Seng
23,972.29
-2.60%
-3.15%
-5.61%
-3.02%
-6.47%
-14.29%
-6.33%
-4.42%
Lagging95.2
daily close, local currency (not FX-adjusted); 52w high uses closes
GeneralConcept of the Day 1 minWhat the 2s10s spread is actually measuring
CONCEPT OF THE DAY
What the 2s10s spread is actually measuring
Why today : Today's tape prints 2s10s at 46bp, the band the regime engine scores as flat rather than a clear steepener.
The 2s10s spread is the 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year yield, quoted in basis points. It is a slope, not a price. A positive number means the long bond pays more than the short note, which is the usual shape: lenders ask for extra yield to lock money up. A negative number, an inversion, means the short rate is higher, which tends to show up after the central bank has tightened and the market expects that tightness to slow the economy. The spread is not a timer. It can sit near zero, or inverted, for a long stretch before growth actually rolls over, and it can steepen because the long end is rising or because the front end is falling. Those are different economies. Read it next to credit spreads and volatility, not as a standalone buy or sell. When the tape shows 2s10s, ask which leg moved.
Stocks
StocksUS Equity Ideas 1 minHPE BUY
US EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
HPE=
Hewlett Packard Enterprise
6.8
+7.36%
HPEGROWTHBUY🔥 2-issue streak=
Hewlett Packard Enterprise • Technology
6.8/10Conviction
$69.33
▲ +7.36%
Over the next few weeks the $1.2B Vultr Helios order and the raised networking outlook are the test, not Friday's jump.
Oct 2 orderRSI 58Guide raised
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
5/10
Vultr's $1.2 billion AMD Helios rack order was the Oct 2 driver.HPE raised its long-term networking growth outlook at this week's investor day.Evercore, Morgan Stanley, Citi, Truist and UBS lifted price targets after the event.
Invalidation: FY27 networking growth guide is cut, or the Vultr order is cancelled.
TradingView's price for HPE. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 1 min
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 5 minSMH and XLK still clear a rising 50-day and lead SPY, so they stay the buys. XLV, XBI and XLB lost the 50-day and come off the book.
TREND FOLLOW
SMH and XLK still clear a rising 50-day and lead SPY, so they stay the buys. XLV, XBI and XLB lost the 50-day and come off the book.
5 of 18 universe names with a usable history close above the 50-day, and both buys are technology.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
7
+3.55%
XLK
Technology Select Sector SPDR
6.5
+2.07%
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR
4.5
+2.15%
XLV
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
3
-1.33%
XBI
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
3
-2.06%
XLB
Materials Select Sector SPDR
2.5
+0.33%
SMHMOMENTUM ETFBUY🔥 53-issue streak
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
7/10Conviction
$630.60
▲ +3.55%
SMH stays a buy while the close holds above the 50-day and 20-day strength versus SPY stays positive.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sPayroll-led tech bid is the tape, not a neRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sClose 630.60 is 10.3% above a rising 50-da
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
8/10
20-day return beats SPY by 13.12 percentage points.Friday's payroll miss is what the Nasdaq leadership expressed.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day, near 572.
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
SMH · 20d illustrative range
XLKMOMENTUM ETFBUY🔥 10-issue streak
Technology Select Sector SPDR
6.5/10Conviction
$199.81
▲ +2.07%
XLK stays a buy while it holds the 50-day; Friday's payroll miss is what the tape is expressing.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sSame payroll bid as the Nasdaq, no fresh sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sClose 199.81 is 8.4% above the 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
7/10
Relative strength versus SPY is +9.70 points over 20 sessions.Both moving-average tests are still passed.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day, near 184.
TradingView's price for XLK. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLK · 20d illustrative range
XLEMOMENTUM ETFHOLD🔥 53-issue streak
Energy Select Sector SPDR
4.5/10Conviction
$62.82
▲ +2.15%
XLE is a hold: still above its 50-day, but 20-day strength versus SPY has turned negative.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sBrent's export story has not put XLE aheadRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sAbove the 50-day, but 20-day RS versus SPY
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
5/10
Still above the 50-day, so the exit rule has not fired.20-day relative strength versus SPY is negative.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day, near 61.
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLE · 20d illustrative range
XLVMOMENTUM ETFEXIT🔥 52-issue streak
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
3/10Conviction
$166.18
▼ -1.33%
XLV is an exit: the last close is back under the 50-day, so the trend rule is done.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sHealth care was Friday's sector laggard onRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sLast close is under the 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
3/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
Last close failed the 50-day test.Friday's sector print was the weakest of the 11 SPDRs.
Invalidation: Reclaim the 50-day, near 167, before any re-entry.
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
XBIMOMENTUM ETFEXIT🔥 52-issue streak
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
3/10Conviction
$154.43
▼ -2.06%
XBI is an exit: the close is under the 50-day and 20-day strength versus SPY is negative.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo fresh biotech catalyst overrides the faRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sClose is under the 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
3/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
50-day test failed.20-day relative strength versus SPY is negative.
Invalidation: Reclaim the 50-day, near 157, before any re-entry.
TradingView's price for XBI. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLBMOMENTUM ETFEXIT🔥 52-issue streak
Materials Select Sector SPDR
2.5/10Conviction
$48.86
▲ +0.33%
XLB is an exit: materials lost the 50-day, in line with copper's weekly slide.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sCopper's five-day drop matches the lost trRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sClose is under the 50-day and RS is the we
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
3/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
2/10
50-day test failed.Materials RS is among the weakest in the universe.
Invalidation: Reclaim the 50-day, near 51, before any re-entry.
TradingView's price for XLB. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minBitcoin ETFs netted about $82.9m on the week while Ether ETFs lost about $118m. Hold both into the Oct 14 CPI; the flow split is the signal, not a new on-chain event.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Bitcoin ETFs netted about $82.9m on the week while Ether ETFs lost about $118m. Hold both into the Oct 14 CPI; the flow split is the signal, not a new on-chain event.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
5.5
+0.44%
ETH-USD
Ether
4.5
+0.70%
BTC-USDHOLD🔥 36-issue streak
Bitcoin
5.5/10Conviction
$84926.00
▲ +0.44%
Into the Oct 14 CPI print, hold Bitcoin: the latest ETF week added $82.9m after a $2.39bn week.
No issuer cash-flow series for Bitcoin.Week ETF net +$82.9m, far below the prior Oct 14 CPI is the next gate, not a chain eIBIT was still the marginal buyer on Oct 184926 is a small daily bounce, not a break
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
6/10
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
US spot Bitcoin ETFs netted $82.9m for Sep 28–Oct 2, provisional.Oct 1 alone was a $102.7m inflow, led by IBIT.September CPI on Oct 14 is the next macro gate.
Invalidation: Spot ETF flows flip to weekly net outflows and price loses 80,000.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Into the same CPI window, Ethereum is a HOLD while spot ETFs are still redeeming, unlike Bitcoin.
No issuer earnings series for Ether.Week ETF net -$118m after a strong prior wNo network event; the flow print is the caFlows rotated toward Bitcoin, not an ETH b2695.87, up 0.70% on the day, flat on the
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
4/10
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
5/10
US spot Ether ETFs posted about $118m of weekly outflows.Redemptions extended through the Oct 1 session.No dated protocol upgrade inside the next week.
Invalidation: Weekly ETH ETF flows turn positive and price reclaims the prior week's high.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 1 minBrent closed Oct 2 at 102.25, up 1.42%, on China's fuel-export halt. Gold and copper fell with it, so this is a product-supply story, not a broad commodity bid.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Brent closed Oct 2 at 102.25, up 1.42%, on China's fuel-export halt. Gold and copper fell with it, so this is a product-supply story, not a broad commodity bid.
Brent's Oct 2 close is 102.25, up 1.42% on the day, while gold fell 1.20% and copper fell 1.32%. The dollar index is 101.28, up 0.09 points, so the metals dip…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BZ=F
Brent
6.5
+1.42%
BrentENERGYWATCH🔥 3-issue streak
BZ=F
6.5/10Conviction
$102.25
▲ +1.42%
Into the Oct 7 holiday review, Brent stays a WATCH: the export curb is the bid, and a permit restart is the give-back.
October product exports outside HK/Macau aNo COT or positioning series priced this rThe Oct 7 holiday review is the next binarFuel scarcity versus recovering Gulf exporUp 1.42% on the day, down 1.98% over five.
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
Chinese refiners suspended October fuel exports beyond Hong Kong and Macau.Beijing's next decision lands when the holiday ends on Oct 7.Asian gasoline margins widened into a record over Brent on the curb.
Invalidation: Brent settles under $100 after Oct 7 export permits resume.
TradingView's price for BZ=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 7 min30d hit rate 48%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech-US
+4.29%
Named holdings. 142 smaller positions (32.49%) are off this picture.
Tech-US
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$104289.44
Cash
$11059.77
P&L
$4289.44 (+4.29%)
Realized P&L
$-3536.17
TWR
+3.82%
Sharpe
1.17
Max DD
-2.39%
Sortino
3.11
Calmar
8.50
Ann. return
+20.34%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions89%
Cash11%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Sell
UNH
8.49
pending
Sell
RDDT
12.88
pending
Sell
HD
8.14
pending
Sell
OI
66.09
pending
Sell
SLB
12.9
pending
Sell
HAL
53.7
pending
Sell
HOOD
2.24
pending
Sell
RTX
1.36
pending
Sell
FIVE
1.12
pending
Sell
ADBE
1.02
pending
Sell
ORCL
1.54
pending
Buy
HPE
3.19
pending
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$9896.28
+16.1%
XOM ×129
$21128.08
+7.3%
UNH ×8.49
$3158.40
-12.7%
INTC ×14.08
$1680.25
+38.3%
MSFT ×11.91
$6165.08
+27.2%
AMZN ×5.95
$1497.22
-6.9%
CVX ×7.29
$1507.16
+3.9%
FRO ×38.46
$2028.35
+30.5%
+51 more holdings
Track Record
29 On Track · 19 Lagging · 11 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
TSM (2026-07-19)
7/10
+16.1%
On Track
XOM (2026-07-19)
8/10
+7.3%
On Track
UNH (2026-07-19)
6.5/10
-12.7%
Stopped Out
INTC (2026-07-24)
7.5/10
+38.3%
On Track
MSFT (2026-07-28)
6.5/10
+27.2%
On Track
AMZN (2026-07-31)
8/10
-6.9%
Lagging
CVX (2026-08-01)
7/10
+4.0%
On Track
FRO (2026-08-02)
7/10
+30.4%
On Track
PLTR (2026-08-03)
6.5/10
+1.2%
On Track
MRVL (2026-08-05)
7/10
+168.5%
On Track
LLY (2026-08-06)
8/10
-2.9%
Lagging
ELF (2026-08-06)
6.5/10
+21.2%
On Track
ABNB (2026-08-07)
7.5/10
-1.0%
Lagging
TWLO (2026-08-07)
7/10
+52.5%
On Track
BRK-B (2026-08-10)
7.5/10
-3.7%
Lagging
CSCO (2026-08-10)
7/10
-7.4%
Lagging
MU (2026-08-13)
7.5/10
+12.1%
On Track
RDDT (2026-08-15)
8/10
-14.8%
Stopped Out
HD (2026-08-17)
7.5/10
-16.3%
Stopped Out
VLO (2026-08-18)
7/10
+15.6%
On Track
TGT (2026-08-20)
7.5/10
-3.0%
Lagging
MRK (2026-08-20)
7/10
-5.2%
Lagging
ADI (2026-08-21)
8/10
+12.7%
On Track
ROST (2026-08-21)
7/10
-2.2%
Lagging
AVGO (2026-08-22)
7/10
-3.6%
Lagging
NVDA (2026-08-06)
7.5/10
+8.3%
On Track
AMD (2026-08-03)
7/10
+35.0%
On Track
OI (2026-08-24)
7/10
-22.0%
Stopped Out
V (2026-08-25)
7/10
-5.7%
Lagging
CRWD (2026-08-27)
8/10
+29.2%
On Track
CRM (2026-08-28)
8/10
-6.9%
Lagging
ESTC (2026-08-29)
8/10
-6.0%
Lagging
GAP (2026-08-30)
7/10
-4.1%
Lagging
SHEL (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
+5.8%
On Track
NAT (2026-08-31)
7/10
+24.4%
On Track
SLB (2026-09-01)
7/10
-18.9%
Stopped Out
DELL (2026-09-03)
7.5/10
+12.7%
On Track
HAL (2026-09-03)
6.5/10
-15.4%
Stopped Out
HOOD (2026-09-04)
7/10
-9.6%
Stopped Out
RTX (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
-8.0%
Stopped Out
APH (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
+5.0%
On Track
DUOL (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
-6.6%
Lagging
FIVE (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
-12.3%
Stopped Out
PSX (2026-09-07)
7/10
+3.7%
On Track
ADBE (2026-09-07)
6.5/10
-10.8%
Stopped Out
ORCL (2026-09-11)
7.2/10
-12.4%
Stopped Out
LHX (2026-09-15)
6/10
-3.6%
Lagging
IREN (2026-09-16)
6/10
+0.4%
On Track
LITE (2026-09-17)
7/10
+18.1%
On Track
HAE (2026-09-18)
6.8/10
-2.7%
Lagging
JBHT (2026-09-18)
6.5/10
-1.1%
Lagging
LRCX (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
+20.6%
On Track
COIN (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
-5.8%
Lagging
ACN (2026-09-20)
7/10
+9.7%
On Track
TLN (2026-09-20)
6.8/10
+9.7%
On Track
SNPS (2026-09-26)
7/10
+15.1%
On Track
JCI (2026-09-26)
7/10
+4.0%
On Track
SNX (2026-09-28)
7.3/10
+7.9%
On Track
TFX (2026-09-28)
6.3/10
-0.3%
Lagging
Euro-only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$97821.52
Cash
$14987.73
P&L
$-2178.48 (-0.22%)
Realized P&L
$-42835.98
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes failed for every position in this book, so marks are at cost rather than a fresh price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702
$702.62
—
TTE.PA ×368
$27276.04
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
—
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
—
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
—
GLE.PA ×22.15
$1755.04
—
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
—
NWG.L ×191
$1346.17
—
+47 more holdings
Penny-Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes failed for every position in this book, so marks are at cost rather than a fresh price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578
$3755.55
—
PYPD ×1564
$6940.50
—
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
—
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$35000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Sell
GLD
22.71
pending
Sell
DBC
503
pending
Buy
TLT
191
pending
Buy
IEF
58.52
pending
Buy
SPLV
146
pending
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes failed for every position in this book, so marks are at cost rather than a fresh price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65
$25000.00
—
IEF ×108
$10000.00
—
DBC ×654
$20000.00
—
SPLV ×132
$10000.00
—
Trend-follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$73446.40
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Sell
XLV
30.27
pending
Sell
XBI
32
pending
Sell
XLB
93.53
pending
Buy
SMH
3.49
pending
Buy
XLK
11.03
pending
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes failed for every position in this book, so marks are at cost rather than a fresh price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86
$5539.52
—
XLK ×11.57
$2271.54
—
SMH ×5.03
$2990.61
—
XLV ×30.27
$5207.77
—
XBI ×32
$5207.77
—
XLB ×93.53
$4954.78
—
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$26717.65
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes failed for every position in this book, so marks are at cost rather than a fresh price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×206
$26795.83
—
GLD ×30.1
$11738.20
—
CPER ×150
$5929.12
—
SLV ×93.58
$5545.24
—
PPLT ×66.63
$1111.38
—
BNO ×35.14
$1850.57
—
URA ×23.16
$1066.93
—
UGA ×26.78
$3377.87
—
+11 more holdings
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$32370.73
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes failed for every position in this book, so marks are at cost rather than a fresh price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5510
$35015.45
—
ETH-USD ×14.91
$28949.67
—
SOL-USD ×26.81
$2795.91
—
XRP-USD ×628
$868.24
—
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +47.60%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
2s10s spread
The 2s10s spread is the 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year yield, quoted in basis points.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.