yesterday_retrospective — GET /movers returned HTTP 400, so the movers table was omitted.
forex_rebalancing — Squawk-alert feed returned HTTP 401, so same-day FX intervention checks fell back to the jobs and oil coverage already cited.
penny_plays — Screener returned an empty universe for category=penny, so the section fell back to a web pass and published zero names.
trend_follow — QQQ history came back with 19 sessions, so the 200-day test failed closed and QQQ was not eligible.
market_pulse — Prices with a null close or no computable change were omitted from the index band: CC=F, CT=F, EURUSD=X, KC=F, PA=F, PL=F, SB=F, ZC=F, ZR=F, ZS=F, ZW=F, ^AEX, ^BFX, ^FCHI, ^FTSE, ^FTSEMIB, ^GDAXI, ^IBEX.
eu_equity_ideas — Schneider's PTC bid is the fresh European headline, but the acquirer is the wrong side of an all-cash takeout, so no EU long was published.
commodities_outlook — Copper was dropped: Friday's aggregator print was down and a same-day wire comment was up, a sign disagreement, and no second source settled the price.
crypto_landscape — The $82.9m bitcoin ETF inflow is Farside's provisional week; Friday's IBIT line was still blank when the source was checked.
portfolio_reality_check — Euro, penny, anti-fragile, trend, commodities and crypto positions came back price_estimated, so those books' unrealized P&L is a cost mark.
us_equity_ideas — PTC history returned a single session (2026-10-02 close 144.03), so the one-day change, 52-week range, market cap, PEG, beta, ROE and revenue growth are null.
Brent holds above $100 after the G7 reserve release
Probability: Medium • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $104289.44
Blended P&L: +4.29% • 30d Hit Rate: +49.20%
1 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 29 of 59 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 21.3%, average loss -7.7%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 8 minThe 10-year yield fell 5bp to 5.24 and VIX fell 1.19pts to 15.31 while the S&P 500 rose 0.73% to 7722.72.
MARKET PULSE
Only 45.39% of the S&P is above its fifty-day and SPY beat RSP by 0.04pp, so the 1.19% Nasdaq record was leadership, not breadth.
Risk-on, concentrated constructive +1 Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
AIThe 10-year yield fell 5bp to 5.24 and VIX fell 1.19pts to 15.31 while the S&P 500 rose 0.73% to 7722.72.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,722.72
yday 7,722.72
▲ +0.73%
NASDAQ Data
27,190.86
yday 27,190.86
▲ +1.19%
Nasdaq 100 Data
30,807.93
yday 30,807.93
▲ +1.00%
Dow Jones Data
51,176.96
yday 51,176.96
▲ +0.49%
Russell 2K Data
2,832.90
yday 2,832.90
▲ +0.94%
Euro Stoxx 50 Data
6,238.50
yday 6,238.50
▲ +0.16%
DAX Data
25,231.20
yday 25,231.20
▲ +0.38%
CAC 40 Data
7,897.19
yday 7,897.19
▲ +0.13%
FTSE 100 Data
10,462.00
yday 10,462.00
▼ -0.16%
Nikkei 225 Data
69,946.86
yday 68,309.46
▲ +2.40%
Hang Seng Data
23,984.28
yday 23,972.29
▲ +0.05%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
4,181.80
yday 4,162.30
▲ +0.47%
Silver Data
60.42
yday 60.42
▼ -1.35%
Copper Data
6.55
yday 6.55
▼ -1.32%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data
91.11
yday 91.11
▲ +0.59%
Brent Data
102.25
yday 102.25
▲ +1.42%
Natural gas Data
3.04
yday 3.04
▲ +0.10%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
86,234.00
yday 84,926.00
▲ +1.54%
Ether Data
2,724.67
yday 2,695.87
▲ +1.07%
Solana Data
121.56
yday 120.72
▲ +0.70%
US spot Bitcoin ETFs AI
+82.9 $m
yday +82.9 $m
Inbound
US spot Ethereum ETFs AI
-118.0 $m
Outbound
Rates
US 2Y Data
4.78
yday 4.78
-10bp
US 10Y Data
5.24
yday 5.24
-5bp
US 30Y Data
5.61
yday 5.61
-3bp
2s10s spread Data
46.00
yday 46.00
+5bp
10Y-3M spread Data
109.00
yday 109.00
+2bp
Credit
US HY OAS Data
324.00
yday 324.00
+12bp
Baa-10Y spread Data
149.00
yday 149.00
+2bp
IG OAS Data
86.00 bp
yday 86.00 bp
calm
HY minus IG spread Data
238.00 bp
watch
Volatility
VIX Data
15.31
yday 15.31
-1.19 (-7.2%)
VIX9D/VIX Data
0.93 ratio
yday 0.93 ratio
calm
VIX/VIX3M Data
0.83 ratio
yday 0.83 ratio
calm
Dollar & FX
US Dollar Index (DXY) Data
101.28
yday 101.28
+0.09 (+0.1%)
Breadth
% > 50d Data
45.4%
yday 45.4%
—
% > 200d Data
60.1%
yday 60.1%
—
Adv / Dec Data
207 / 216
yday 207 / 216
—
New hi / lo Data
33 / 19
yday 33 / 19
—
SPY−RSP 1d Data
0.0pp
yday 0.0pp
—
SPY−RSP 5d Data
+3.06pp
yday +3.06pp
—
SPY−RSP 21d Data
+5.37pp
yday +5.37pp
—
% from 52w Data
-1.84%
yday -1.84%
—
Europe % > SMA50 Data
37.9%
yday 37.9%
—
Europe % > SMA200 Data
73.7%
yday 73.7%
—
Europe % advancing Data
41.0%
yday 41.0%
—
Stock-bond 20d correlation (SPY vs TLT) Data
0.39 ratio
yday 0.59 ratio
watch
S&P 500 share above the 200-day Data
60.10 %
yday 60.10 %
watch
Liquidity
SOFR minus fed funds Data
-1.00 bp
calm
Initial claims Data
197,000.00 persons
calm
Cross-asset
Average pairwise sector correlation Data
0.10 ratio
calm
Gold/copper ratio (GLD/CPER) Data
9.62 ratio
calm
Cover checks
VIX Data
15.31 / 25.00
yday 15.31
Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread Data
0.46 / -0.20
yday 46.00
Not Triggered
HY OAS Data
324.00 / 500.00
yday 324.00
Not Triggered
SPX drawdown from 52w high Data
-0.81 / -10.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Disinflationary boom
AIEquities made a record Nasdaq close and HY OAS is still 324bp, so growth is not the thing that broke. Inflation is not re-accelerating on this tape either: the 10-year fell 5bp to 5.24 and copper did not confirm the oil premium. Own the boom mix, and do not pay long duration up t
• Cut the Nasdaq-record cluster first if two hard triggers flip.
• Add GLD before adding more duration if the flip is an oil shock rather than a growth scare.
AIZero of four hard triggers are fired, and none of the internals are in stress. Three are on watch: stock-bond correlation at 0.39, the HY-IG gap at 238bp, and 60.1% of the S&P above the 200-day. That is a concentrated risk-on tape, not a crash checklist.
Same bands as the 200-day, shown as context. This print does not vote.
Share of issues advancing48.4%
0%100%
A reading aid, not an engine vote. Under 40% is weak participation.
Regime score+1 constructive
−7+4
Sum of the five votes. The scale runs from −7 to +4.
VIX / VIX 3-month0.83 contango
0.701.30
Below 1 is the usual contango, which scores 0. Above 1 is backwardation and scores −1.
S&P distance from the 52-week high-1.84%
−15%at the high
A position, not a verdict. The all-time-high distance is the same number, so it is not drawn twice.
SPY minus equal-weight, 1 day+0.04 pp
equal-weight ledSPY led
Right means the cap-weighted index led. Blue is SPY, purple is equal-weight. Neither end is a buy.
New highs minus new lows+14
−40+40
Neither tail is a buy. The tick only says which extreme was larger.
XLK relative strength105.8 leading
90110
XLE relative strength101.3 weakening
90110
XLV relative strength100.5 leading
90110
XLC relative strength99.7 improving
90110
XLP relative strength96.0 lagging
90110
XLF relative strength94.5 lagging
90110
XLB relative strength94.2 lagging
90110
XLY relative strength94.1 lagging
90110
XLI relative strength93.8 lagging
90110
XLRE relative strength92.3 lagging
90110
XLU relative strength90.2 lagging
90110
Chart.js, from this issue and stored issues. Each axis is labeled on the chart.
Regime engine
constructivescore +1
Score +1 is constructive: HY OAS at 324bp is the only positive driver, while 60.1% of the S&P above its 200-day and VIX at 15.31 are both scored neutral.
Each symbol is compared with the S&P 500, not with its own price. Left to right (RS-ratio) is relative strength: above 100 means it has been stronger than the market. Bottom to top (RS-momentum) is whether that lead is growing: above 100 means it is getting stronger. Leading, top right, is strong and still improving. Weakening, bottom right, is still ahead but fading. Lagging, bottom left, is behind and still losing ground. Improving, top left, is behind but turning up. Leadership usually moves clockwise. The list and the chart are the same symbols.
This heatmap is TradingView, with its own data and its mark left in place. It is not the numbers in this letter. The other panels load when you choose them. If a panel is empty, their data-set name changed; the charts above still stand.
Global indices
9/11 above 200d · 4/11 above 50d · 8/11 up today · 3 within 3% of 52w high · best 1m: Nasdaq Composite +4.1% · worst 1m: CAC 40 -7.1%
Index
Last
1d
5d
1m
3m
YTD
vs 52w hi
vs 200d
vs 50d
RS
United States
S&P 500
7,722.72
+0.73%
-0.27%
+0.14%
+2.96%
+12.81%
-0.81%
+7.46%
+1.20%
bench.
Nasdaq-100
30,807.93
+1.00%
+1.07%
+3.93%
+3.47%
+22.01%
0.00%
+12.52%
+5.04%
Leading103.6
Nasdaq Composite
27,190.86
+1.19%
+0.45%
+4.06%
+4.49%
+16.99%
-0.20%
+10.62%
+3.64%
Leading102.4
Dow Jones Industrial
51,176.96
+0.49%
-1.26%
-4.28%
-0.61%
+6.48%
-5.84%
+2.37%
-2.70%
Lagging96.1
Russell 2000
2,832.9
+0.94%
-0.16%
-5.76%
-2.92%
+14.14%
-7.68%
+2.85%
-3.80%
Lagging95.0
Europe
Euro Stoxx 50
6,238.5
+0.16%
-1.26%
-3.59%
+0.11%
+7.63%
-4.77%
+2.94%
-2.19%
Lagging96.7
DAX
25,231.2
+0.38%
-0.29%
-3.30%
+0.36%
+3.02%
-4.57%
+1.95%
-1.83%
Lagging97.1
CAC 40
7,897.19
+0.13%
-2.08%
-7.11%
-5.99%
-3.10%
-9.50%
-4.10%
-5.88%
Lagging92.8
FTSE 100
10,462
-0.16%
-1.85%
-2.66%
+0.32%
+5.34%
-4.11%
+0.49%
-2.63%
Lagging96.3
Asia
Nikkei 225
68,309.46
-0.94%
+5.06%
0.00%
+3.47%
+35.70%
-5.61%
+15.10%
+3.26%
Improving100.0
Hang Seng
23,972.29
-2.60%
-3.15%
-5.61%
-3.02%
-6.47%
-14.29%
-6.33%
-4.42%
Lagging95.2
daily close, local currency (not FX-adjusted); 52w high uses closes
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 1 minFriday rallied because September payrolls rose only 29,000, cutting October hike odds to 22.7% from 64.2% a week earlier. The Nasdaq gained 1.19% to a record 27,190.86 and the S&P 500 gaine…
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Friday rallied because September payrolls rose only 29,000, cutting October hike odds to 22.7% from 64.2% a week earlier. The Nasdaq gained 1.19% to a record 27,190.86 and the S&P 500 gained 0.73%.
Bridge to Today
Watch whether this week's FOMC minutes and the October 14 CPI keep October hike odds near 22.7% or hand the long end back to the bears.
Nasdaq Composite+1.19% today
−3%+3%
US 10Y5.24%
3%6%
Now. The Nasdaq's move on this tape, and the 10-year. Yesterday's close stays in the sentence above.
GeneralConcept of the Day 1 minWhat relative strength versus SPY actually measures
CONCEPT OF THE DAY
What relative strength versus SPY actually measures
Why today : The RS matrix has technology in Leading and most other sectors in Lagging.
Relative strength versus SPY asks whether an asset rose more than the S&P 500 fund over a chosen window, or less. A stock can be up on the day and still be weak if SPY rose by more. The usual tool is a ratio of the two prices, then a check on whether that ratio is itself rising. A rising ratio means leadership is building. A falling ratio means leadership is being given back even when the asset's own price is green. The point is comparison, not direction. A flat index can hide a violent rotation, and this ratio is what shows it. A shorter cousin is the return gap over a fixed window, often twenty sessions: positive means the sleeve beat the benchmark, negative means it lagged. Neither reading is a signal by itself. The next time a section says a sleeve is leading or lagging, it means that gap versus SPY, not merely that the sleeve was up or down.
Stocks
StocksUS Equity Ideas 1 minPTC BUY
US EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
PTCNEW
PTC Inc.
7.7
—
PTCVALUEBUYNEW
PTC Inc. • Technology
7.7/10Conviction
$144.03
▲ N/A
Over the next session the trade is the gap toward Schneider's $205 cash bid; Friday's $144.03 close had not priced it.
Cash bid $205EPS $6.08
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
9/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
—
Schneider agreed to buy PTC for $205 a share in cash, about $22.6 billion of equity, close guided by Q3 2027.
P/E
23.7
Target
$205.00
Invalidation: Deal breaks, or the first full session closes under $180.
TradingView's price for PTC. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 1 min
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 5 minSemis and tech still clear both moving averages and beat SPY; energy stays a hold, and health, biotech and materials are exits.
TREND FOLLOW
Semis and tech still clear both moving averages and beat SPY; energy stays a hold, and health, biotech and materials are exits.
4 of 18 universe names closed above their 50-day. QQQ had only 19 sessions of history, so its 200-day test failed closed. The two buys are both technology.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
7
+3.55%
XLK
Technology Select Sector SPDR
6.7
+2.07%
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR
5.7
+2.15%
XLV
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
3.5
-1.33%
XBI
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
3.5
-2.06%
XLB
Materials Select Sector SPDR
3.5
+0.33%
SMHTECHNOLOGYBUY🔥 54-issue streak
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
7/10Conviction
$630.60
▲ +3.55%
Over the next 2–4 weeks stay long semis while SMH holds its 50-day; the payrolls miss is what the RS lead is expressing.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sFriday's payrolls miss bid semis with the Only sleeve beating SPY by a double-digit 630.60 is above the 50-day 571.64 and 200-
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
8/10
September payrolls rose 29,000 and the Nasdaq closed at a record, with semiconductors in the lead.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$571.64).
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
Stay with tech beta while XLK holds the 50-day, and treat it as the same Nasdaq-record cluster as SMH.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNasdaq record is the tape; no fresh singleReal RS, but it is the same cluster as SMH199.81 is 8.4% above a 50-day that sits ov
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
8/10
Nasdaq Composite gained 1.19% to a record close after the payrolls miss.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$184.30).
TradingView's price for XLK. It is not the last print in this letter.
Keep energy only as a hold: price is above the 50-day, but 20-day strength versus SPY has turned negative.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sG7 reserve release caps the next leg; BrenEnergy is bid, not leading the 20-day tapeAbove the 50-day, but 20-day RS vs SPY is
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
6/10
G7 reserve release is the cap; Brent is still above $100.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$60.57).
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
Exit health care: the close is through the 50-day, so the trend rule is done even without an 8% loss.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sFriday did not put the 50-day back under pRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s166.18 closed below the 50-day at 166.57.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
Friday's health-care leg was -1.33%, and the 50-day is overhead.
Invalidation: A daily close back above the 50-day (~$166.57) would reopen it.
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
XBIHEALTH CAREEXIT🔥 53-issue streak
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
3.5/10Conviction
$154.43
▼ -2.06%
Exit biotech on the 50-day rule. Relative strength versus SPY is deeply negative.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sFriday did not put the 50-day back under pRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s154.43 closed below the 50-day at 157.07.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
Biotech lost the 50-day; Friday was -2.06%.
Invalidation: A daily close back above the 50-day (~$157.07) would reopen it.
TradingView's price for XBI. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLBMATERIALSEXIT🔥 53-issue streak
Materials Select Sector SPDR
3.5/10Conviction
$48.86
▲ +0.33%
Exit materials: the 50-day break is the rule, and 20-day RS versus SPY is about -9pp.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sFriday did not put the 50-day back under pRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s48.86 closed below the 50-day at 51.36.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
Materials are below the 50-day after a flat Friday.
Invalidation: A daily close back above the 50-day (~$51.36) would reopen it.
TradingView's price for XLB. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minBitcoin ETF inflows slowed to a provisional $82.9m for the week while ether funds lost $118m. The hike-odds fade is still the bid, not a fresh institutional wave.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Bitcoin ETF inflows slowed to a provisional $82.9m for the week while ether funds lost $118m. The hike-odds fade is still the bid, not a fresh institutional wave.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
6
+1.54%
ETH-USD
Ether
5
+1.07%
BTC-USDHOLD🔥 37-issue streak
Bitcoin
6/10Conviction
$86234.00
▲ +1.54%
Into the Oct 14 CPI, bitcoin's bid is the hike-odds fade, but the Farside week slowed to a provisional $82.9m from $2.39bn.
No issuer cash-flow statement for the asseFarside week +$82.9m, down from $2.39bn.Flow slowdown is the tell into the Oct 14 Same hike-odds fade as bullion, not a new 86,234, +1.54% on Oct 5, +11.9% over 20 se
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
6/10
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
Provisional US spot-bitcoin ETF inflows of $82.9m for Sep 28–Oct 2, versus $2.39bn the prior week.October hike odds fell to about 22.7% after a 29,000 payrolls print.
Invalidation: A daily close under $80,000 before the Oct 14 CPI.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Ether can bounce with bitcoin, but $118m of spot-ETF outflows say the next window is not a catch-up bid.
No protocol cash-flow series in the inputsSpot ETH ETFs lost $118m on the Farside weOutflows are the near-term tell, not a newETH is not sharing bitcoin's inflow bid th2,724.67, +1.07% on Oct 5, +8.5% over 20 s
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
4/10
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
6/10
Farside recorded $118m of net outflows from US spot ether ETFs for Sep 28–Oct 2.
Invalidation: A daily close under $2,500 while bitcoin holds its range.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 2 minBrent is still above $100 after the G7 reserve release, and gold's bounce is a hike-odds trade, not a real-yield one.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Brent is still above $100 after the G7 reserve release, and gold's bounce is a hike-odds trade, not a real-yield one.
These are not the same bid. Bullion is trading the payrolls-led fade in October hike odds while the 10-year is still 5.24%; Brent is trading a…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BZ=F
Brent
6.8
+1.42%
GC=F
Gold
6
+0.47%
BrentENERGYWATCH🔥 4-issue streak
BZ=F
6.8/10Conviction
$102.25
▲ +1.42%
Into this week Brent is a hold-above-$100 watch: the G7's 100mb release fights the Hormuz premium, it does not erase it.
G7 100mb release vs Hormuz risk; still aboNo positioning series on the Brent future.G7 stock release and firmer Gulf exports, Geopolitical premium is now fighting a supFriday +1.42% and +15.4% over 20 sessions.
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
7/10
G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves.Middle East crude exports rose back above pre-war levels even as Hormuz incidents continued.
Invalidation: A daily Brent close under $100 that sticks for two sessions.
TradingView's price for BZ=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next week gold holds only if FOMC minutes sound patient; a 5.24% 10-year still caps a metal with no yield.
10y at 5.24% still taxes a non-yielding meNo COT or bullion-ETF flow print today.29k payrolls miss; FOMC minutes due this wHike-odds fade is the bid; real yields capMonday +0.47%, but 20-session change is -6
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
September payrolls rose 29,000, and October hike odds fell to about 22.7%.FOMC minutes of the September 15-16 meeting are due on October 7.
Invalidation: Spot gold loses $4,100 while the 10-year stays above 5.30%.
TradingView's price for GC=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 7 min30d hit rate 49%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech-US
+4.29%
Named holdings. 142 smaller positions (32.49%) are off this picture.
Tech-US
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$104289.44
Cash
$11059.77
P&L
$4289.44 (+4.29%)
Realized P&L
$-3536.17
TWR
+3.82%
Sharpe
1.17
Max DD
-2.39%
Sortino
3.11
Calmar
8.50
Ann. return
+20.34%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions89%
Cash11%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
PTC
1.54
pending
Sell
UNH
8.49
pending
Sell
RDDT
12.88
pending
Sell
HD
8.14
pending
Sell
OI
66.09
pending
Sell
SLB
12.9
pending
Sell
HAL
53.7
pending
Sell
HOOD
2.24
pending
Sell
RTX
1.36
pending
Sell
FIVE
1.12
pending
Sell
ADBE
1.02
pending
Sell
ORCL
1.54
pending
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$9896.28
+16.1%
XOM ×129
$21128.08
+7.3%
UNH ×8.49
$3158.40
-12.7%
INTC ×14.08
$1680.25
+38.3%
MSFT ×11.91
$6165.08
+27.2%
AMZN ×5.95
$1497.22
-6.9%
CVX ×7.29
$1507.16
+3.9%
FRO ×38.46
$2028.35
+30.5%
+51 more holdings
Track Record
29 On Track · 19 Lagging · 11 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
TSM (2026-07-19)
7/10
+16.1%
On Track
XOM (2026-07-19)
8/10
+7.3%
On Track
UNH (2026-07-19)
6.5/10
-12.7%
Stopped Out
INTC (2026-07-24)
7.5/10
+38.3%
On Track
MSFT (2026-07-28)
6.5/10
+27.2%
On Track
AMZN (2026-07-31)
8/10
-6.9%
Lagging
CVX (2026-08-01)
7/10
+4.0%
On Track
FRO (2026-08-02)
7/10
+30.4%
On Track
PLTR (2026-08-03)
6.5/10
+1.2%
On Track
MRVL (2026-08-05)
7/10
+168.5%
On Track
LLY (2026-08-06)
8/10
-2.9%
Lagging
ELF (2026-08-06)
6.5/10
+21.2%
On Track
ABNB (2026-08-07)
7.5/10
-1.0%
Lagging
TWLO (2026-08-07)
7/10
+52.5%
On Track
BRK-B (2026-08-10)
7.5/10
-3.7%
Lagging
CSCO (2026-08-10)
7/10
-7.4%
Lagging
MU (2026-08-13)
7.5/10
+12.1%
On Track
RDDT (2026-08-15)
8/10
-14.8%
Stopped Out
HD (2026-08-17)
7.5/10
-16.3%
Stopped Out
VLO (2026-08-18)
7/10
+15.6%
On Track
TGT (2026-08-20)
7.5/10
-3.0%
Lagging
MRK (2026-08-20)
7/10
-5.2%
Lagging
ADI (2026-08-21)
8/10
+12.7%
On Track
ROST (2026-08-21)
7/10
-2.2%
Lagging
AVGO (2026-08-22)
7/10
-3.6%
Lagging
NVDA (2026-08-06)
7.5/10
+8.3%
On Track
AMD (2026-08-03)
7/10
+35.0%
On Track
OI (2026-08-24)
7/10
-22.0%
Stopped Out
V (2026-08-25)
7/10
-5.7%
Lagging
CRWD (2026-08-27)
8/10
+29.2%
On Track
CRM (2026-08-28)
8/10
-6.9%
Lagging
ESTC (2026-08-29)
8/10
-6.0%
Lagging
GAP (2026-08-30)
7/10
-4.1%
Lagging
SHEL (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
+5.8%
On Track
NAT (2026-08-31)
7/10
+24.4%
On Track
SLB (2026-09-01)
7/10
-18.9%
Stopped Out
DELL (2026-09-03)
7.5/10
+12.7%
On Track
HAL (2026-09-03)
6.5/10
-15.4%
Stopped Out
HOOD (2026-09-04)
7/10
-9.6%
Stopped Out
RTX (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
-8.0%
Stopped Out
APH (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
+5.0%
On Track
DUOL (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
-6.6%
Lagging
FIVE (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
-12.3%
Stopped Out
PSX (2026-09-07)
7/10
+3.7%
On Track
ADBE (2026-09-07)
6.5/10
-10.8%
Stopped Out
ORCL (2026-09-11)
7.2/10
-12.4%
Stopped Out
LHX (2026-09-15)
6/10
-3.6%
Lagging
IREN (2026-09-16)
6/10
+0.4%
On Track
LITE (2026-09-17)
7/10
+18.1%
On Track
HAE (2026-09-18)
6.8/10
-2.7%
Lagging
JBHT (2026-09-18)
6.5/10
-1.1%
Lagging
LRCX (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
+20.6%
On Track
COIN (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
-5.8%
Lagging
ACN (2026-09-20)
7/10
+9.7%
On Track
TLN (2026-09-20)
6.8/10
+9.7%
On Track
SNPS (2026-09-26)
7/10
+15.1%
On Track
JCI (2026-09-26)
7/10
+4.0%
On Track
SNX (2026-09-28)
7.3/10
+7.9%
On Track
TFX (2026-09-28)
6.3/10
-0.3%
Lagging
Euro-only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$97821.52
Cash
$14987.73
P&L
$-2178.48 (-0.22%)
Realized P&L
$-42835.98
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes from Portfolio Manager were estimated at cost today; unrealized P&L is not a fresh mark.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702
$702.62
—
TTE.PA ×368
$27276.04
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
—
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
—
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
—
GLE.PA ×22.15
$1755.04
—
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
—
NWG.L ×191
$1346.17
—
+47 more holdings
Penny-Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes from Portfolio Manager were estimated at cost today; unrealized P&L is not a fresh mark.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578
$3755.55
—
PYPD ×1564
$6940.50
—
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
—
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$35000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Sell
GLD
26.31
pending
Buy
TLT
194
pending
Buy
IEF
56.15
pending
Sell
DBC
461
pending
Buy
SPLV
141
pending
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes from Portfolio Manager were estimated at cost today; unrealized P&L is not a fresh mark.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65
$25000.00
—
IEF ×108
$10000.00
—
DBC ×654
$20000.00
—
SPLV ×132
$10000.00
—
Trend-follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$73446.40
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
SMH
3.49
pending
Buy
XLK
11.03
pending
Sell
XLV
30.27
pending
Sell
XBI
32
pending
Sell
XLB
93.53
pending
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes from Portfolio Manager were estimated at cost today; unrealized P&L is not a fresh mark.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86
$5539.52
—
XLK ×11.57
$2271.54
—
SMH ×5.03
$2990.61
—
XLV ×30.27
$5207.77
—
XBI ×32
$5207.77
—
XLB ×93.53
$4954.78
—
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$26717.65
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes from Portfolio Manager were estimated at cost today; unrealized P&L is not a fresh mark.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×206
$26795.83
—
GLD ×30.1
$11738.20
—
CPER ×150
$5929.12
—
SLV ×93.58
$5545.24
—
PPLT ×66.63
$1111.38
—
BNO ×35.14
$1850.57
—
URA ×23.16
$1066.93
—
UGA ×26.78
$3377.87
—
+11 more holdings
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$32370.73
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes from Portfolio Manager were estimated at cost today; unrealized P&L is not a fresh mark.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5510
$35015.45
—
ETH-USD ×14.91
$28949.67
—
SOL-USD ×26.81
$2795.91
—
XRP-USD ×628
$868.24
—
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +49.20%
Glossary
relative strength vs SPY
Relative strength versus SPY asks whether an asset rose more than the S&P 500 fund over a chosen window, or less.
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.