market_pulse — Nikkei 22 Oct close 62907.84 matches Yahoo at 62907.84 (-2.65%). Hang Seng aggregator print 22926.90 vs Yahoo's still-open 22912.91 (-3.12%); the level gap is inside 2%, so the aggregator print is used. Europe cash closes were null and are omitted.
market_pulse — SPX index analytics are the 19 Oct snapshot (close 7659.44, 2.28% under the 6 Oct high). The index band uses the 21 Oct cash close. SXXP analytics were omitted because that file is not the Stoxx 600.
market_pulse — Squawk alerts returned HTTP 401 and /movers returned HTTP 400, so overnight headlines and the movers table are omitted.
us_equity_ideas — Aggregator /news did not carry the Baird or UBS notes. Prices are EODHD 21 Oct closes. CLH has no published price target in the CNBC call list, so target_price is null. NOC change is 21 Oct versus the 20 Oct history close of 534. CLH history ends 16 Oct, so its one-day change is omitted.
eu_equity_ideas — Adidas screener close 146.50 on 19 Oct disagrees with the EODHD 21 Oct close of 160.75; the idea uses EODHD. Getinge's +1.9% is the article's move to SEK 264.7, which matches EODHD 264.9 within 2%. History for both names ends 16 Oct. The specific euro operating-profit guide was not re-fetched, so it is not quoted.
penny_plays — The penny screener returned an empty run. No name cleared the 6/10 bar, so the section publishes zero ideas.
commodities_outlook — Brent idea uses Wednesday's Reuters settle of $108.82 (+0.03%). The aggregator BZ=F bar is 111.29 on 22 Oct (+1.10%), more than 2% away, so it is not the published price. Wheat uses the aggregator 22 Oct bar at 629.5. Grain Central's 21 Oct wire quoted Dec SRW at 643.25, a different session.
risk_cover_playbook — SPX drawdown uses the 21 Oct close versus the analytics ATH of 7838.109863. The 19 Oct analytics file itself said -2.28%. HY-IG uses HY 333bp on 20 Oct minus IG 87bp on 19 Oct. Put/call was not available and is omitted. Hedge ETF prices are 20 Oct closes.
trend_follow — ETF history ends between 15 Oct and 19 Oct, before the 21 Oct US cash session. Signals use those closes. QQQ is omitted (28 bars, no 200-day).
yesterday_retrospective — Europe and several Asia aggregator bars for 21 Oct matched the prior index panel and were not treated as new closes. The US cash closes match CNBC. Sector SPDR bars do not include 21 Oct, so Wednesday's rotation uses Reuters' sector figures, not XLK or XLC.
portfolio_reality_check — Tech US /performance returned total_value 0, cash 0 and zero positions, so NOC and CLH were not sized. The book looks unvalued rather than a live $100k sleeve.
portfolio_reality_check — ADS.DE price rejected by Portfolio Manager's plausibility guard — see trade history
portfolio_reality_check — GETI-B.ST price rejected by Portfolio Manager's plausibility guard — see trade history
portfolio_reality_check — Hit rate uses the six Trend Follow names marked against aggregator closes through 19 Oct, because every other book is price-estimated or, in Tech US, unvalued. 2 of 6 are on track.
portfolio_reality_check — Euro, Penny, Anti-Fragile, Trend Follow, Commodities and Crypto all came back with estimated prices, so none of them enters the blended P&L. Tech US is a zero unvalued book and is excluded too.
Hormuz attacks keep Brent above $100 into Iran's reply
Probability: High • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: N/A
Blended P&L: N/A • 30d Hit Rate: +33.30%
Blended P&L withheld: none of the 7 books has a live quote that agrees with its time-weighted return. Hit rate is 2 of 6 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 4.8%, average loss -7.5%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 8 minVIX is 17.31, down 1.13 points and 6.13%, and the 10-year is 5.13. HY OAS is 333bp, wider by 4bp, while DXY at 101.84 is still the 16 Oct print.
MARKET PULSE
Equal-weight beat the cap-weight tape by 0.683pp, and only 3 of 11 indexes sit above their medium average. The next tell is whether that narrow leadership survives into the FOMC.
Mixed tape constructive +1 Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
AIVIX is 17.31, down 1.13 points and 6.13%, and the 10-year is 5.13. HY OAS is 333bp, wider by 4bp, while DXY at 101.84 is still the 16 Oct print.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,757.17
yday 7,712.57
▲ +0.58%
Nasdaq Composite Data
26,702.86
yday 26,424.82
▲ +1.05%
Nasdaq 100 Data
29,822.52
yday 29,490.28
▲ +1.13%
Dow Jones Data
52,856.09
yday 52,495.88
▲ +0.69%
Russell 2000 Data
2,781.02
yday 2,773.42
▲ +0.27%
Euro Stoxx 50 Data
6,136.06
yday 6,204.23
▼ -1.10%
DAX Data
25,622.61
yday 25,622.61
▲ +0.95%
CAC 40 Data
7,956.70
yday 7,956.70
▲ +0.28%
FTSE 100 Data
10,730.06
yday 10,730.06
▼ -1.40%
Nikkei 225 Data
62,907.84
yday 64,621.24
▼ -2.65%
Hang Seng Data
22,926.90
yday 23,689.40
▼ -3.22%
Commodities
Energy
Brent crude Data
108.82
yday 110.08
▲ +0.03%
Agriculture
Chicago wheat Data
629.50
yday 637.75
▼ -1.29%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
82,513.00
yday 82,634.00
▼ -0.15%
Ether Data
2,431.94
yday 2,436.82
▼ -0.20%
US spot Bitcoin ETFs AI
+524.8 $m
yday +23.2 $m
Inbound
Rates
US 2Y Data
4.81
yday 4.79
+2bp
US 10Y Data
5.13
yday 5.12
+1bp
US 30Y Data
5.42
yday 5.42
unch
2s10s spread is the 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year yield, quoted in basis points.">2s10s spread Data
32.00
yday 33.00
-1bp
10Y-3M spread Data
88.00
yday 86.00
+2bp
Credit
US HY OAS Data
333.00
yday 329.00
+4bp
Baa-10Y spread Data
144.00
yday 146.00
-2bp
HY minus IG OAS Data
246.00 bp
watch
Volatility
VIX Data
17.31
yday 18.44
-1.13 (-6.1%)
VIX / VIX3M Data
0.91 ratio
calm
VIX9D / VIX Data
0.94 ratio
calm
Dollar & FX
US Dollar Index (DXY) Data
101.84
yday 101.84
-0.16 (-0.2%)
Breadth
% > 50d Data
50.6%
yday 50.6%
—
% > 200d Data
62.7%
yday 62.7%
—
Adv / Dec Data
219 / 204
yday 219 / 204
—
New hi / lo Data
39 / 15
yday 39 / 15
—
SPY−RSP 1d Data
-0.7pp
yday -0.7pp
—
SPY−RSP 5d Data
-2.46pp
yday -2.46pp
—
SPY−RSP 21d Data
-0.28pp
yday -0.28pp
—
% from 52w Data
-2.28%
yday -2.28%
—
Cross-asset
Stock-bond 20d correlation Data
-0.06 correlation
calm
Average sector correlation Data
0.16 correlation
calm
Gold/copper ratio Data
636.10 ratio
yday 631.04 ratio
calm
Cover checks
VIX Data
17.31 / 25.00
yday 18.44
Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread Data
0.32 / -0.20
yday 33.00
Not Triggered
HY OAS Data
333.00 / 500.00
yday 329.00
Not Triggered
SPX drawdown from ATH Data
-1.03 / -10.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AIEquities finished higher on 21 Oct, Brent's settle is still $108.82, the 10-year is 5.13, and HY at 333 is not stressed. That is an inflationary boom, not a quadrant change.
• Raise cash toward the 35% sleeve before adding risk.
• Use GLD, TLT, SH, and VIXY as the priced hedge list if two triggers flip.
AIZero of four hard triggers is on. SPX is -1.03% under the 6 Oct high, VIX is 17.31, the 2s10s is 0.32, and HY OAS is 333. Internals are mostly calm, with breadth and the HY-IG gap on watch, so the book stays risk-on inside an inflationary boom.
Each symbol is compared with the S&P 500, not with its own price. Left to right (RS-ratio) is relative strength: above 100 means it has been stronger than the market. Bottom to top (RS-momentum) is whether that lead is growing: above 100 means it is getting stronger. Leading, top right, is strong and still improving. Weakening, bottom right, is still ahead but fading. Lagging, bottom left, is behind and still losing ground. Improving, top left, is behind but turning up. Leadership usually moves clockwise. The list and the chart are the same symbols.
This heatmap is TradingView, with its own data and its mark left in place. It is not the numbers in this letter. The other panels load when you choose them. If a panel is empty, their data-set name changed; the charts above still stand.
Global indices
8/11 above 200d · 3/11 above 50d · 8/11 up today · 3 within 3% of 52w high · best 1m: S&P 500 +2.3% · worst 1m: Hang Seng -6.5%
Index
Last
1d
5d
1m
3m
YTD
vs 52w hi
vs 200d
vs 50d
RS
United States
S&P 500
7,757.17
+0.58%
+0.50%
+2.26%
+2.92%
+13.32%
-1.01%
+7.27%
+1.01%
bench.
Nasdaq-100
29,822.52
+1.13%
-0.43%
-2.96%
+4.81%
+18.11%
-4.49%
+7.26%
-0.15%
Lagging99.7
Nasdaq Composite
26,702.86
+1.05%
+0.04%
-1.99%
+6.23%
+14.89%
-3.25%
+6.95%
+0.28%
Lagging100.0
Dow Jones Industrial
52,856.09
+0.69%
+2.39%
+1.91%
+2.21%
+9.97%
-2.75%
+4.67%
+0.93%
Improving99.6
Russell 2000
2,781.02
+0.27%
+1.89%
-3.77%
-5.41%
+12.05%
-9.37%
-0.62%
-3.82%
Lagging94.7
Europe
Euro Stoxx 50
6,136.06
-1.10%
-1.05%
-4.02%
-1.11%
+5.86%
-6.34%
+0.97%
-3.64%
Lagging95.3
DAX
25,622.61
+0.95%
+0.75%
-2.82%
+2.51%
+4.62%
-3.09%
+3.35%
-0.48%
Improving99.8
CAC 40
7,956.7
+0.28%
+1.33%
-4.37%
-5.32%
-2.37%
-8.82%
-3.31%
-4.51%
Lagging95.4
FTSE 100
10,730.06
-1.40%
+0.69%
-0.55%
+0.72%
+8.04%
-1.65%
+2.71%
-0.35%
Lagging98.6
Asia
Nikkei 225
64,621.24
+0.85%
-4.66%
+1.79%
-6.01%
+28.37%
-10.70%
+5.47%
-2.55%
Lagging97.0
Hang Seng
23,689.4
-1.08%
-2.69%
-6.51%
+4.49%
-7.57%
-15.30%
-7.16%
-5.50%
Lagging93.8
daily close, local currency (not FX-adjusted); 52w high uses closes
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 1 minThe S&P 500 rose 0.58% to 7757.17 and the Nasdaq rose 1.05% to 26702.86, led by SpaceX, while Netflix fell more than 5% after cutting its revenue and ad guides.
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
The S&P 500 rose 0.58% to 7757.17 and the Nasdaq rose 1.05% to 26702.86, led by SpaceX, while Netflix fell more than 5% after cutting its revenue and ad guides.
Bridge to Today
Thursday's session will show whether the SpaceX-led tech bid holds into the 28 Oct FOMC, and whether Meta's after-bell gain sticks.
Nasdaq Composite+1.05% today
−3%+3%
US 10Y5.13%
3%6%
Now. The Nasdaq's move on this tape, and the 10-year. Yesterday's close stays in the sentence above.
GeneralConcept of the Day 1 minWhat the 2s10s spread is telling you
CONCEPT OF THE DAY
What the 2s10s spread is telling you
Why today : The tape's 2s10s is 32bp, 1bp narrower than the prior print, which is why the spread is today's concept.
The 2s10s spread is the 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year yield, quoted in basis points. It is the shortest picture of whether policy is tight relative to the growth it is trying to steer. A wider positive spread means the long end pays more than the policy-sensitive front end, which usually lines up with an expansion that can live with higher long rates. A spread near zero, or below it, means the front end is as high as the long end: the curve is saying policy is restrictive and growth is being asked to slow. Watch the change, not one level. A drift wider means the long end is tightening. A drift narrower means the front end is catching up. Neither move is a forecast by itself. The usable check is whether the next growth and inflation prints agree with the direction of the spread. If they do not, treat the spread as a positioning tell, not a macro call.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 5 min3 of 18 names are above the 50-day. The book buys XLV, XLP and XLE, and exits the four holds that broke the average.
TREND FOLLOW
3 of 18 names are above the 50-day. The book buys XLV, XLP and XLE, and exits the four holds that broke the average.
QQQ has only 28 bars, so it is omitted rather than forced through a 200-day test. History for the ETF universe ends 15–19 Oct, before the 21 Oct cash session.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
XLV
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
6.7
-0.87%
XLP
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR
6.3
-0.47%
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR
7
+1.86%
XLB
Materials Select Sector SPDR
4
+0.06%
XLK
Technology Select Sector SPDR
3.7
-1.71%
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
3
+1.61%
XBI
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
2.7
+2.45%
XLVXLVBUY🔥 13-issue streak
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
6.7/10Conviction
$175.65
▼ -0.87%
Healthcare still clears both moving averages and leads 20-day strength versus SPY, so the sleeve stays a buy.
No company fundamental applies to the ETF No flow series was scored beyond relative Healthcare leads the relative-strength boaThe bid is the trend, not a single earningPrice is above both the 50-day and the 200
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
8/10
Trend rule: close above the 50-day, 50-day above the 200-day, and positive 20-day RS versus SPY
Invalidation: A close back under the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLV · 20d illustrative range
XLPXLPBUY🔥 8-issue streak
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR
6.3/10Conviction
$87.21
▼ -0.47%
Staples clear the trend rule and are not yet in the book, so this is the new buy the exits free up.
No company fundamental applies to the ETF No flow series was scored beyond relative The rule is the catalyst: positive 20-day Staples are the defensive leg of a mixed tStaples are above both moving averages.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
7/10
Trend rule: close above the 50-day, 50-day above the 200-day, and positive 20-day RS versus SPY
Invalidation: A close back under the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XLP. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLP · 20d illustrative range
XLEXLEBUY🔥 10-issue streak
Energy Select Sector SPDR
7/10Conviction
$67.80
▲ +1.86%
Energy still clears the trend rule, with Hormuz as the catalyst, so the sleeve gets an add rather than a new story.
No company fundamental applies to the ETF No flow series was scored beyond relative Hormuz keeps the energy sleeve's catalyst The sleeve is a trend hold, not a new oil Energy is the strongest trend still above
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
8/10
Trend rule: close above the 50-day, 50-day above the 200-day, and positive 20-day RS versus SPY
Invalidation: A close back under the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLE · 20d illustrative range
XLBXLBEXIT🔥 3-issue streak
Materials Select Sector SPDR
4/10Conviction
$50.95
▲ +0.06%
Materials closed under the 50-day, so the rule exits it even though the break is small.
No company fundamental applies to the ETF No flow series was scored beyond relative No dated materials catalyst repairs the avThe break is small, but the rule is binaryMaterials closed a shade under the 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
4/10
Close at or under the 50-day
Invalidation: A close back above the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XLB. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLKXLKEXIT🔥 13-issue streak
Technology Select Sector SPDR
3.7/10Conviction
$185.96
▼ -1.71%
Technology closed under its 50-day, so the trend rule exits it even after Wednesday's bounce.
No company fundamental applies to the ETF No flow series was scored beyond relative A one-day tech bounce is not a trend reclaWednesday's tech rally has not repaired thXLK closed back under its 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
3/10
Close at or under the 50-day
Invalidation: A close back above the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XLK. It is not the last print in this letter.
SMHSMHEXIT🔥 13-issue streak
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
3/10Conviction
$548.46
▲ +1.61%
Semiconductors are under the 50-day and through the 8% stop versus cost, so the position comes out.
No company fundamental applies to the ETF No flow series was scored beyond relative Semiconductors failed the trend rule.A Wednesday bounce did not reclaim the aveSMH is under its 50-day and more than 10%
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
3/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
2/10
Close at or under the 50-day
Invalidation: A close back above the 50-day.
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
XBIXBIEXIT🔥 3-issue streak
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
2.7/10Conviction
$147.86
▲ +2.45%
Biotech is under the 50-day and through the 8% stop versus cost, so the position comes out.
No company fundamental applies to the ETF No flow series was scored beyond relative No fresh biotech catalyst offsets the breaThe sleeve is an exit, not a dip buy.Biotech is under its 50-day and more than
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
3/10
Narrative
3/10
Technicals
2/10
Close at or under the 50-day
Invalidation: A close back above the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XBI. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
DECREASE JPY vs EUR — The yen is still leaking versus the euro in small daily steps, with no intervention print to fade.
Conviction 40%
Crypto
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minSpot bitcoin ETFs took in $524.8m on 21 Oct. That is a bid, not a new trend, while ether still has no flow print.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Spot bitcoin ETFs took in $524.8m on 21 Oct. That is a bid, not a new trend, while ether still has no flow print.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
6
-0.15%
ETH-USD
Ether
4.5
-0.20%
BTC-USDHOLD🔥 55-issue streak
Bitcoin
6/10Conviction
$82513.00
▼ -0.15%
A $524.8m ETF inflow day supports the next session, but it does not by itself reverse the 20-day decline.
No protocol or supply fundamental was scorUS spot bitcoin ETFs took in $524.8m on 21IBIT +$235.0m and FBTC +$212.7m are the neOne inflow day does not erase the 20-day s82513 is -0.15% on the day and -4.53% over
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
7/10
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
US spot bitcoin ETF net inflow $524.8m on 21 OctIBIT +$235.0m and FBTC +$212.7m
Invalidation: Spot bitcoin ETF flows flip to net outflows for two sessions.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Ether has no fresh flow print and is still the weaker of the two standing books into the next session.
No protocol fundamental was scored for ethNo ether spot-ETF flow table was found thiNo dated ether catalyst cleared the bar toEther stays the standing second asset, not2431.94 is -0.20% on the day and -11.70% o
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
—
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
4/10
Invalidation: A dated ether catalyst or a two-session relative bounce versus bitcoin.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
undefined · 20d illustrative range
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 2 minBrent's flat $108.82 settle is a headline market, not a chase, and wheat's premium is still coming out into the 27 Oct tender.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Brent's flat $108.82 settle is a headline market, not a chase, and wheat's premium is still coming out into the 27 Oct tender.
There is no single commodity theme today. Brent is a Hormuz risk premium that failed to stick on Wednesday's settle, while wheat is a Black Sea unwind. Do not…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BZ=F
Brent crude
6.2
+0.03%
ZW=F
Chicago wheat
6.2
-1.29%
Brent crudeENERGYWATCH🔥 22-issue streak
BZ=F
6.2/10Conviction
$108.82
▲ +0.03%
Hormuz attacks keep the bid, but Wednesday's $108.82 settle was only +3 cents after a $2 spike, so this is not a chase.
Wednesday's settle was only +3 cents afterNo managed-money positioning print was pulHormuz attacks are continuing, and there iUkraine talks are the offset; they do not A flat $108.82 settle is not a fresh break
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
Brent settled +3 cents at $108.82 on 21 OctAttacks continuing, including into the Gulf of OmanEIA crude stocks -3.06 million barrels
Invalidation: A sustained Brent settle back under $100.
TradingView's price for BZ=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
Black Sea peace headlines are still pulling wheat's risk premium out; Jordan's reissued tender, due 27 Oct, is the next demand check.
Peace headlines are stripping Black Sea riNo CFTC wheat positioning print was pulledJordan reissued its tender; offers are dueA premium unwind can reverse if the talks The wire already had Dec SRW through its 2
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
7/10
Jordan tender offers due 27 Oct 2026Dec SRW had already closed under its 200-day
Invalidation: Dec SRW reclaims its 200-day and holds it.
TradingView's price for ZW=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 4 min30d hit rate 33%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
No book with a live quote is included in this bar.
Named holdings. 82 smaller positions (23.42%) are off this picture.
Tech US
Performance
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Euro Only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$97821.52
Cash
$14987.73
P&L
$-2178.48 (-0.22%)
Realized P&L
$-2178.48
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
ADS.DE
1.86
—
Buy
GETI-B.ST
1.13
—
Current Holdings
⚠ Every live holding is marked at cost because Portfolio Manager had no fresh price, so P&L on this book is not a market mark.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TTE.PA ×368
$27276.04
—
ENR.DE ×28.15
$4188.22
—
SIE.DE ×11.2
$2902.44
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
—
SAP.DE ×14.02
$2603.15
—
RWE.DE ×41.68
$2421.72
—
ADYEN.AS ×2.33
$2421.70
—
MSLH.L ×673
$2310.98
—
+47 more holdings
Penny Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Every live holding is marked at cost because Portfolio Manager had no fresh price, so P&L on this book is not a market mark.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
PYPD ×1564
$6940.50
—
GOSS ×232
$3755.55
—
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
—
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$4850.98
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Sell
TLT
194
pending
Sell
IEF
54.71
pending
Sell
SPLV
137
pending
Current Holdings
⚠ Every live holding is marked at cost because Portfolio Manager had no fresh price, so P&L on this book is not a market mark.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65
$25000.00
—
SPLV ×273
$20128.36
—
DBC ×654
$20000.00
—
IEF ×164
$15012.91
—
TLT ×194
$15007.74
—
Trend Follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$68979.54
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
XLV
11.78
pending
Buy
XLP
23.73
pending
Buy
XLE
30.52
pending
Sell
XLB
93.53
pending
Sell
XLK
22.6
pending
Sell
SMH
8.53
pending
Sell
XBI
32
pending
Current Holdings
⚠ Every live holding is marked at cost because Portfolio Manager had no fresh price, so P&L on this book is not a market mark.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86
$5539.52
—
SMH ×8.53
$5218.24
—
XBI ×32
$5207.77
—
XLV ×30.27
$5207.77
—
XLB ×93.53
$4954.78
—
XLK ×22.6
$4510.76
—
Track Record
2 On Track · 2 Lagging · 2 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
XLE (2026-08-18)
6.5/10
+7.5%
On Track
XLK (2026-08-18)
3/10
-6.8%
Lagging
SMH (2026-08-18)
3/10
-10.4%
Stopped Out
XLV (2026-08-19)
6.5/10
+2.1%
On Track
XBI (2026-08-19)
3/10
-9.1%
Stopped Out
XLB (2026-08-21)
3/10
-3.8%
Lagging
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$26717.65
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Every live holding is marked at cost because Portfolio Manager had no fresh price, so P&L on this book is not a market mark.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×206
$26795.83
—
GLD ×30.1
$11738.20
—
CPER ×150
$5929.12
—
SLV ×93.58
$5545.24
—
UGA ×26.78
$3377.87
—
UNG ×309
$3205.70
—
WEAT ×116
$3120.14
—
CORN ×136
$2655.21
—
+11 more holdings
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$32370.73
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Every live holding is marked at cost because Portfolio Manager had no fresh price, so P&L on this book is not a market mark.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5510
$35015.45
—
ETH-USD ×14.91
$28949.67
—
SOL-USD ×26.81
$2795.91
—
XRP-USD ×628
$868.24
—
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +33.30%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
2s10s spread
The 2s10s spread is the 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year yield, quoted in basis points.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.