market_pulse — index_panel and index analytics still show the 28 Oct S&P close at 7743.98, up 0.28%. prices.json and Reuters show the 29 Oct close at 7720.39, down 0.30%. The panel is omitted because the sign disagrees.
market_pulse — index_ladder is not in pulse_ready.json because quote bodies had no price field. VIX had no close. The VIX tile is the 28 Oct print.
market_pulse — calendar.json economic list was empty, so event_radar is omitted.
yesterday_retrospective — GET /movers returned HTTP 400. Nikkei history jumps from 22 Oct to 29 Oct, and Hang Seng stops on 28 Oct, so those one-day percentages are omitted.
forex_rebalancing — Squawk alerts returned HTTP 401, so the same-day FX pass used the Fed statement and the rate path. Only USD and NOK had a checkable edge versus EUR.
us_equity_ideas — The screener still had LLY at 1283.66. The quote endpoint and Yahoo both print the 29 Oct close at 1373.70, up 6.63%, and that is the price used. Aggregator /news/LLY did not carry the 29 Oct release.
us_equity_ideas — One name cleared a dated catalyst and a score. Mastercard's history jumped, but no primary release with figures was in hand, so it stays out.
eu_equity_ideas — Shell's history is in pence and stops on 28 Oct at 3956.5. The 29 Oct screener print is 4033 pence, shown as 40.33 to match the paper book's average. /fundamentals/SHEL.L returned no ratios.
penny_plays — screener unavailable or empty for category=penny — fell back to web search; penny universe may not be seeded yet. November PDUFA names were not verified under $5 with a balance sheet, so the section is empty.
commodities_outlook — Silver and copper histories skip 29 Oct, so those percentage changes are versus the 28 Oct bar. Brent's news settle and the aggregator contract print differ; the published price is the aggregator print.
crypto_landscape — The bitcoin ETF inflow is a partial tally, 7 of 12 funds. Ether's outflow is the Farside figure cited by BlockBeats.
risk_cover_playbook — Anti-Fragile positions came back price_estimated, so the rebalance uses those cost marks. Live GLD at 368.57 is below the book's 405.49 mark and was not chased.
portfolio_reality_check — Euro, penny, trend, commodity, crypto and anti-fragile books came back with estimated prices, so they are out of the blended P&L.
1 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 10 of 19 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 21.0%, average loss -6.3%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 7 minThe 2-year fell 9bp to 4.61% and the 30-year rose 2bp to 5.32%. VIX at 16.91 is the 28 Oct close, down 0.61pt, so it does not describe Thursday's equity session.
MARKET PULSE
The S&P closed at 7720.39, down 0.30%, with 58.12% of members above the medium-term average and RSP ahead of SPY by 2.59pp.
Mixed tape constructive +1 Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
AIThe 2-year fell 9bp to 4.61% and the 30-year rose 2bp to 5.32%. VIX at 16.91 is the 28 Oct close, down 0.61pt, so it does not describe Thursday's equity session.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,720.39
yday 7,722.60
▼ -0.30%
NASDAQ Data
26,184.72
yday 26,549.85
▼ -1.38%
Dow Jones Data
52,342.56
yday 52,475.10
▼ -0.25%
Russell 2K Data
2,859.22
yday 2,830.51
▲ +1.01%
Euro Stoxx 50 Data
6,207.07
yday 6,167.81
▲ +0.64%
STOXX 600 Data
649.11
yday 644.14
▲ +0.77%
DAX Data
26,039.68
yday 25,704.02
▲ +1.31%
CAC 40 Data
7,970.00
yday 7,886.96
▲ +1.05%
FTSE 100 Data
10,722.10
yday 10,694.50
▲ +0.26%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
3,992.60
yday 4,043.90
▼ -1.27%
Silver Data
50.90
▼ -5.43%
Copper Data
6.54
▼ -1.88%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data
102.79
▲ +1.46%
Brent Data
111.85
yday 110.23
▲ +1.47%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
78,527.00
yday 79,876.00
▼ -1.69%
Ether Data
2,247.82
yday 2,313.57
▼ -2.84%
US spot Bitcoin ETFs AI
+17.1 $m
yday +137.3 $m
Inbound
US spot Ether ETFs AI
-105.5 $m
yday -22.4 $m
Outbound
Rates
US 2Y Data
4.61
yday 4.67
-9bp
US 10Y Data
4.98
yday 5.05
-1bp
US 30Y Data
5.32
yday 5.37
+2bp
2s10s spread Data
37.00
yday 38.00
+8bp
10Y-3M spread Data
80.00
yday 87.00
-7bp
Credit
US HY OAS Data
318.00
yday 330.00
-12bp
Baa-10Y spread Data
145.00
yday 145.00
-2bp
IG OAS Data
86.00 bp
yday 0.88 percent
calm
HY minus IG OAS Data
232.00 bp
calm
Volatility
VIX Data
16.91
yday 17.52
-0.61 (-3.5%)
VIX9D/VIX Data
0.92 ratio
calm
VIX/VIX3M Data
0.87 ratio
calm
MOVE index Data
93.54 index
calm
Dollar & FX
US Dollar Index (DXY) Data
101.78
yday 101.58
-0.41 (-0.4%)
EUR/USD Data
1.12
yday 1.12
▲ +0.24%
Breadth
% > 50d Data
58.1%
yday 56.5%
—
% > 200d Data
62.6%
yday 64.3%
—
Adv / Dec Data
181 / 248
yday 202 / 226
—
New hi / lo Data
56 / 15
yday 48 / 16
—
SPY−RSP 1d Data
-2.6pp
yday -2.6pp
—
SPY−RSP 5d Data
-4.11pp
yday -4.11pp
—
SPY−RSP 21d Data
-3.84pp
yday -3.84pp
—
% from 52w Data
-1.20%
yday -1.47%
—
Europe % > SMA50 Data
34.5%
yday 34.5%
—
Europe % > SMA200 Data
73.7%
yday 73.7%
—
Europe % advancing Data
42.5%
yday 40.0%
—
Stock-bond 20d correlation (SPY vs TLT) Data
-0.09 ratio
watch
S&P 500 share above the 200-day Data
62.62 %
watch
Liquidity
SOFR minus effective fed funds Data
6.00 bp
yday 0.07 pp
calm
Initial jobless claims, 4-week average Data
196,750.00 claims
calm
Cross-asset
Average pairwise SPDR correlation, 20 sessions Data
0.00 ratio
calm
Gold future divided by copper future Data
610.80 ratio
calm
Cover checks
VIX Data
16.91 / 25.00
yday 17.52
Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread Data
37.00 / -20.00
yday 38.00
Not Triggered
HY OAS Data
318.00 / 500.00
yday 330.00
Not Triggered
S&P drawdown from high Data
-1.50 / -10.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AIPCE re-accelerated to 3.6% and Brent is still above $100, while the Russell rose 1.01% and Europe finished higher. That is inflation with growth still up, so long bonds stay at a zero weight and the book keeps gold, broad commodities and a small defensive-equity sleeve.
• Sell the AI-capex complex first if Friday's open extends Amazon's after-hours loss.
• Do not add duration. The inflationary-boom weight on TLT is already zero.
AIZero of four hard triggers are fired. VIX 16.91, the 10-year minus the 2-year at +37bp, HY OAS at 318bp and a 1.5% drawdown from the high are all inside the lines. Internals are calm to watch, not stress. The action list is the inflationary-boom book, not a crash overlay.
Each symbol is compared with the S&P 500, not with its own price. Left to right (RS-ratio) is relative strength: above 100 means it has been stronger than the market. Bottom to top (RS-momentum) is whether that lead is growing: above 100 means it is getting stronger. Leading, top right, is strong and still improving. Weakening, bottom right, is still ahead but fading. Lagging, bottom left, is behind and still losing ground. Improving, top left, is behind but turning up. Leadership usually moves clockwise. The list and the chart are the same symbols.
Quadrant
Symbols
Leading
XLE Energy, XLV Health Care, XLP Staples, XLB Materials
Improving
XLY Discretionary, XLU Utilities, XLF Financials, XLRE Real Estate
Weakening
XLK Technology
Lagging
XLI Industrials, XLC Communication
Relative rotation (RS-ratio vs momentum)
Yield curve: today vs prior
VIX term structure
TradingView
This heatmap is TradingView, with its own data and its mark left in place. It is not the numbers in this letter. The other panels load when you choose them. If a panel is empty, their data-set name changed; the charts above still stand.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 1 minThe Nasdaq fell 1.38% because Alphabet dropped 12.6% on a revenue miss and negative free cash flow, while the Russell 2000 rose 1.01%.
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
The Nasdaq fell 1.38% because Alphabet dropped 12.6% on a revenue miss and negative free cash flow, while the Russell 2000 rose 1.01%.
Bridge to Today
Friday's open has to price Amazon's after-hours drop and show whether the Russell bid survives a second AI-capex shock.
US 10Y4.98%
3%6%
Now. The Nasdaq's move on this tape, and the 10-year. Yesterday's close stays in the sentence above.
Over the next month the raised guide is the call: FY revenue midpoint up $5.5bn to $91-92bn after Q3 sales rose 39% to $24.4bn.
Rev +39%Guide $91-92bn+6.63% dayRSI 73
Fundamentals
8/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
5/10
Q3 revenue $24.4bn, up 39% year on year, reported 29 OctFY 2026 revenue guide raised to $91-92bn from $85-87bnShares closed +6.63% at $1,373.70 on the print
Invalidation: Weekly close back under $1,288, the pre-print close.
TradingView's price for LLY. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 6 minEnergy, health care, staples and materials still clear both moving averages and beat SPY. Technology and semiconductors lost the 50-day and come off.
TREND FOLLOW
Energy, health care, staples and materials still clear both moving averages and beat SPY. Technology and semiconductors lost the 50-day and come off.
8 of 18 universe names closed above their 50-day. The BUYs are four different sectors; financials also passed but would have been a sixth open ticker.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR
7
+0.38%
XLV
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
7.5
+2.40%
XLP
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR
6
+1.54%
XLB
Materials Select Sector SPDR
5.5
+1.29%
XBI
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
4.5
+0.18%
XLK
Technology Select Sector SPDR
3
-1.18%
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
3
-1.06%
XLEENERGYBUY🔥 17-issue streak
Energy Select Sector SPDR
7/10Conviction
$68.71
▲ +0.38%
Over the next 2-4 weeks stay long energy beta while XLE holds the 50-day; RS versus SPY is the confirmation.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sHormuz supply risk is still in the crude tRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sPrice above a rising 50- and 200-day; RS +
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
8/10
20-day RS versus SPY is +10.2 pointsBrent still bid with Hormuz unresolved
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$63.89).
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 2-4 weeks health care stays the defensive lead while XLV holds a 7.5% cushion over its 50-day.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sLilly's 29 Oct guide raise is the sector cRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sAbove both averages, 20-day RS versus SPY
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
8/10
XLV +2.40% on 29 Oct as Nasdaq fellLilly raised FY revenue guide by $5.5bn
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$171.21).
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 2-4 weeks staples stay a BUY only while the 50-day holds; the bid is rotation, not a new staple story.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sThe catalyst is the rotation, not a stapleRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sAbove 50- and 200-day; RS versus SPY +6.7p
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
7/10
XLP +1.54% on the Alphabet session20-day RS versus SPY is +6.7 points
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$84.96).
TradingView's price for XLP. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 2-4 weeks materials stay a trend hold while price is over the 50-day, with copper the risk.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRS is intact even as copper futures slippeRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sBarely above both averages; RS versus SPY
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
6/10
20-day RS versus SPY is +6.5 pointsCopper futures slipped to $6.54
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$51.25).
TradingView's price for XLB. It is not the last print in this letter.
XBI still clears the 50-day, but RS versus SPY is only +0.1 point, so this is a hold, not a new add.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo fresh biotech catalyst beyond the trendRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sAbove the 50-day by 0.8%; RS versus SPY is
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
5/10
Still above the 50-day at $157.79RS versus SPY is only +0.14 point
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$156.55).
TradingView's price for XBI. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLK lost the 50-day on the Alphabet session. The trend rule is an exit, not a debate about AI demand.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sAlphabet's cash-burn print is what broke tRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sClose is a fraction under the 50-day; RS i
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
3/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
Close $188.74 versus a 50-day at $188.83Nasdaq Composite fell 1.38% on 29 Oct
Invalidation: A daily close back above the 50-day (~$188.83).
TradingView's price for XLK. It is not the last print in this letter.
SMH is through the 50-day. Semiconductors come off the book until price reclaims that average.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sThe AI-capex scare hit the semiconductor cRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s2.2% under the 50-day and RS versus SPY is
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
3/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
Close $561.67 versus a 50-day at $574.3320-day RS versus SPY is -7.9 points
Invalidation: A daily close back above the 50-day (~$574.33).
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minUS spot bitcoin ETFs took in a partial $17.1m on 29 Oct while ether ETFs saw $105.5m leave. Bitcoin is $78,527 and ether is $2,247.82.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
US spot bitcoin ETFs took in a partial $17.1m on 29 Oct while ether ETFs saw $105.5m leave. Bitcoin is $78,527 and ether is $2,247.82.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
4.8
-1.69%
ETH-USD
Ether
3.5
-2.84%
BTC-USDHOLD🔥 62-issue streak
Bitcoin
4.8/10Conviction
$78527.00
▼ -1.69%
Into the next flow print, a partial $17.1m spot-ETF inflow does not reverse the slip from $79,876 to $78,527.
No cash-flow fundamental on the coin itselPartial US spot-ETF net +$17.1m on 29 Oct.Flow day is small and 7 of 12 funds had reThe institutional bid is a drip, not a wavDown from $79,876 to $78,527 overnight.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
5/10
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
4/10
US spot bitcoin ETFs +$17.1m on 29 Oct, 7 of 12 funds inPrice $78,527, down 1.69% from the prior print
Invalidation: A daily close under $75,000.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Into the next session a $105.5m spot-ETF outflow keeps ether on watch under $2,300.
No protocol cash-flow figure in this run.US spot ether ETFs saw a $105.5m outflow.The outflow print is the dated flow catalyEther is lagging bitcoin on the flow tape.Fell 2.84% to $2,247.82.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
3/10
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
3/10
US spot ether ETFs -$105.5m on 29 OctPrice $2,247.82, down 2.84%
Invalidation: Spot-ETF flows flip to a net inflow alongside a close above $2,400.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 3 minSilver is the rates casualty at $50.90, Brent is still a Hormuz two-way at $111.85, and copper's futures slip sits next to a record Chinese premium.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Silver is the rates casualty at $50.90, Brent is still a Hormuz two-way at $111.85, and copper's futures slip sits next to a record Chinese premium.
Hot PCE and a live December hike are hitting non-yielding metals, while Brent is trading diplomacy rather than the inflation print. If Sunday's OPEC+ meeting…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BZ=F
Brent
6.5
+1.47%
SI=F
Silver
5.5
-5.43%
HG=F
Copper
5.2
-1.88%
BrentENERGYWATCH🔥 29-issue streak
BZ=F
6.5/10Conviction
$111.85
▲ +1.47%
Into Sunday's OPEC+ meeting Brent stays two-way: tanker mines are still reported, but a Hormuz reopening headline can bleed the premium.
Blockade and mine reports still constrain No COT or tanker-rate series in the inputsOPEC+ on Sunday and a live Hormuz talk traThe geopolitical premium is consensus, notAggregator print held $111.85, up 1.47%.
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
OPEC+ meets Sunday 1 NovIRGC says three tankers hit mines in HormuzUS-Iran talks are live, with no reopening yet
Invalidation: A confirmed Hormuz reopening, not another headline.
TradingView's price for BZ=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
Into the 9 Dec FOMC silver is the high-beta read of 3.6% PCE and hike odds; $50.90 is the line that has to hold.
PCE 3.6% and a live December hike raise caNo futures-positioning series priced todayThe 29 Oct PCE print is the fresh rates shSame hike story as gold, in a thinner metaDown from $53.83 on 28 Oct to $50.90.
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
4/10
September PCE +0.5% m/m and +3.6% y/y on 29 OctDecember hike priced near 68%Silver futures at $50.90, below the 28 Oct print
Invalidation: A daily close back above $54 on softer PCE.
TradingView's price for SI=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next few weeks a record $200/t Yangshan premium says Chinese buyers still want copper even as futures slipped to $6.54.
Record Yangshan premium is a physical bid.No LME positioning series in the inputs.Premium at a record while the futures prinData-centre demand is the standing copper Futures slipped to $6.537 from $6.662.
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
4/10
Yangshan premium cited at a record $200/tCOMEX copper $6.537, under the 28 Oct print
Invalidation: Yangshan premium falls back under $100/t.
TradingView's price for HG=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 5 min30d hit rate 53%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech US
-3.54%
Named holdings. 140 smaller positions (30.01%) are off this picture.
Tech US
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$96463.83
Cash
$10835.40
P&L
$-3536.17 (-3.54%)
Realized P&L
$-3536.17
TWR
-3.54%
Sharpe
-4.54
Max DD
-3.54%
Sortino
-4.39
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions89%
Cash11%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
LLY
0.1578
pending
Sell
AMZN
5.95
pending
Sell
CRM
1.76
pending
Sell
SLB
12.9
pending
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$9038.69
+6.1%
XOM ×129
$23611.77
+19.9%
UNH ×8.49
$3489.69
-3.6%
INTC ×14.08
$1296.41
+6.7%
MSFT ×12.33
$6538.59
+28.9%
AMZN ×5.95
$1451.21
-9.8%
CVX ×7.29
$1687.78
+16.4%
FRO ×38.46
$2174.88
+39.9%
+51 more holdings
Track Record
5 On Track · 3 Lagging · 3 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
MU (2026-10-01)
6.8/10
-2.6%
Lagging
ACN (2026-10-02)
6.8/10
+36.4%
On Track
ABNB (2026-10-02)
6/10
+1.5%
On Track
NVDA (2026-10-03)
7/10
-1.1%
Lagging
MSFT (2026-10-06)
7.25/10
+28.9%
On Track
MRVL (2026-10-07)
7.5/10
+115.3%
On Track
UNH (2026-10-15)
7.2/10
-3.6%
Lagging
TSM (2026-10-16)
6.3/10
+6.1%
On Track
AMZN (2026-10-20)
6.8/10
-9.8%
Stopped Out
CRM (2026-10-13)
6.7/10
-8.4%
Stopped Out
SLB (2026-10-24)
7/10
-10.5%
Stopped Out
Euro Only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$97821.52
Cash
$14987.73
P&L
$-2178.48 (-0.22%)
Realized P&L
$-2178.48
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
SHEL.L
7.43
pending
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes were missing, so every line below is marked at cost rather than a fresh price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702
$702.62
—
TTE.PA ×368
$27276.04
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
—
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
—
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
—
GLE.PA ×22.15
$1755.04
—
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
—
NWG.L ×191
$1346.17
—
+47 more holdings
Penny Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes were missing, so every line below is marked at cost rather than a fresh price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×232
$3755.55
—
PYPD ×1564
$6940.50
—
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
—
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$4850.98
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Sell
TLT
194
pending
Sell
IEF
54.94
pending
Sell
SPLV
133
pending
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes were missing, so every line below is marked at cost rather than a fresh price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65
$25000.00
—
IEF ×164
$15012.91
—
DBC ×654
$20000.00
—
SPLV ×273
$20128.36
—
TLT ×194
$15007.74
—
Trend Follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$68979.54
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Sell
XLK
22.6
pending
Sell
SMH
8.53
pending
Buy
XLE
30.12
pending
Buy
XLV
11.24
pending
Buy
XLP
23.47
pending
Buy
XLB
39.39
pending
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes were missing, so every line below is marked at cost rather than a fresh price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86
$5539.52
—
XLK ×22.6
$4510.76
—
SMH ×8.53
$5218.24
—
XLV ×30.27
$5207.77
—
XBI ×32
$5207.77
—
XLB ×93.53
$4954.78
—
Track Record
5 On Track · 2 Lagging · 1 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
XBI (2026-10-01)
3/10
+0.6%
On Track
XLB (2026-10-01)
3/10
+7.0%
On Track
XLK (2026-10-03)
7/10
-5.5%
Lagging
SMH (2026-10-03)
7/10
-10.9%
Stopped Out
XLV (2026-10-10)
6.7/10
+7.8%
On Track
XLE (2026-10-13)
6.7/10
+4.1%
On Track
XLP (2026-10-15)
6.7/10
+2.5%
On Track
QQQ (2026-10-10)
6/10
-4.8%
Lagging
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$26717.65
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes were missing, so every line below is marked at cost rather than a fresh price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×206
$26795.83
—
GLD ×30.1
$11738.20
—
CPER ×150
$5929.12
—
SLV ×93.58
$5545.24
—
PPLT ×66.63
$1111.38
—
BNO ×35.14
$1850.57
—
URA ×23.16
$1066.93
—
UGA ×26.78
$3377.87
—
+11 more holdings
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$32370.73
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes were missing, so every line below is marked at cost rather than a fresh price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5510
$35015.45
—
ETH-USD ×14.91
$28949.67
—
SOL-USD ×26.81
$2795.91
—
XRP-USD ×628
$868.24
—
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +52.60%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
real yield
A real yield is a bond yield minus expected inflation.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.