market_pulse — Cockpit equity and VIX tiles are still the Nov 5 prints (S&P tile 7353.73, VIX tile 28.18). The index band uses the Nov 6 closes (S&P 7376.86, VIX 25.64). index_ladder was not in pulse_ready.json.
market_pulse — Hang Seng was left off the index band. History skipped Nov 5, and outside quotes disagree on the sign of Friday's change.
yesterday_retrospective — Nikkei history skipped 2026-11-05, so the raw Nov 4 to Nov 6 drop of 7.64% is not the one-day change. The published one-day is the cited 5.96% to 57434.77.
yesterday_retrospective — news_clusters.json grouped earnings-call summaries and did not cluster the index session. The driver is from the news search. GET /movers returned 429, so movers were omitted.
commodities_outlook — The first prices.json CL=F print was a stale 91.45. A later quote was 90.83, matching the cited Friday settle, up 0.34% from Thursday's 90.52. Gold's history prior bar of 4136 disagrees with the cited -0.94% settle at the same 4074.90 price; the cited change is the one published.
crypto_landscape — Nov 6 US spot-bitcoin ETF flow sources disagree: SoSoValue via TokenPost shows -$411.92m, while other tallies show about -$52m or -$11m. etf_flows uses -$411.92m. The ether -$93.19m figure is a single secondary source.
us_equity_ideas — BDX /fundamentals is a filing 347 days old, so PE and market cap are omitted. The FY27 range is from the company release. The screener price of 213.55 versus the live 211.88 is the Friday -0.78%.
eu_equity_ideas — No EU name cleared. Novartis and adidas guides are from late October, and the screener's top rows are overbought.
penny_plays — screener unavailable or empty for category=penny — fell back to web search; penny universe may not be seeded yet. A later call returned an empty result. FDA calendar pages disagreed on the Nov 14 dexmedetomidine sponsor, so no sub-$5 name was published.
trend_follow — QQQ history returned about 40 bars, so it was not scored. ITA's history showed an implausible one-day drop and was discarded. XLP and XLF buys, and the XLK, SMH, XLE and XBI sells, were already pending, so no second ticket was sent.
forex_rebalancing — squawk-alert feed unavailable — fell back to central-bank and markets coverage for same-day FX events. EURJPY, EURGBP and EURAUD history calls returned 429, so only USD was scored. No intervention rung was found, and the contrarian note is the FRED-versus-spot gap plus CPI, not an intervention call.
risk_cover_playbook — IG OAS, SOFR, jobless claims, put/call and a clean 20-session gold/copper ratio were not available this run (rate limit or gappy history), so those internals are omitted. VIX term structure is the Nov 5 curve; the hard VIX trigger uses Friday's 25.64.
portfolio_reality_check — Every book except Tech-US came back price_estimated, so those marks stay at cost and are excluded from the blend. Anti-fragile and trend-follow tickets that the rules wanted were already pending, and anti-fragile cash is about 4851 against a larger TLT gap, so no new sleeve ticket was sent.
portfolio_reality_check — Hit rate uses Tech-US picks from the last 30 days that still have a live open P&L. Estimated books and closed names without a fresh price are not in the ratio.
executive_summary — Blended P&L is Tech-US only. The other six books are price_estimated, so they are left out of the blend rather than averaged at cost.
1 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 4 of 9 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 14.9%, average loss -10.3%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 8 minInto Tuesday the cockpit is mixed: the VIX print is 28.18, up 11.57 pts, HY OAS is 348bp, up 16bp, and the 10-year is 4.86, down 4bp.
MARKET PULSE
Friday's traded S&P is 7376.86, up 0.31%, while breadth shows 191 advancers against 238 decliners.
Mixed tape cautious -1 Book Neutral 1/4 triggered
AIInto Tuesday the cockpit is mixed: the VIX print is 28.18, up 11.57 pts, HY OAS is 348bp, up 16bp, and the 10-year is 4.86, down 4bp.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,376.86
yday 7,688.62
▲ +0.31%
NASDAQ Data
24,579.43
yday 24,315.00
▲ +1.09%
Nasdaq 100 Data
26,989.99
yday 26,629.81
▲ +1.35%
Dow Jones Data
51,285.73
yday 51,523.06
▼ -0.46%
Russell 2K Data
2,754.11
yday 2,729.89
▲ +0.89%
Euro Stoxx 50 Data
6,231.54
yday 6,265.71
▼ -0.55%
STOXX 600 Data
648.33
yday 654.87
▼ -1.00%
DAX Data
25,820.36
yday 26,325.01
▼ -1.92%
CAC 40 Data
8,139.00
yday 8,205.37
▼ -0.81%
FTSE 100 Data
10,673.90
yday 10,782.70
▼ -1.01%
Nikkei 225 Data
57,434.77
yday 62,188.63
▼ -5.96%
Hang Seng Data
24,533.36
yday 23,852.12
▲ +2.86%
KOSPI Data
5,059.69
yday 5,059.69
▼ -6.02%
Shanghai Composite Data
3,644.67
yday 3,644.67
▼ -1.23%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
4,074.90
yday 4,058.50
▼ -0.94%
Platinum Data
1,538.20
▲ +0.83%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data
90.83
yday 91.45
▲ +0.34%
Agriculture
Wheat Data
591.25
▼ -1.34%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
75,985.00
yday 75,588.00
▲ +0.53%
Ether Data
2,243.78
yday 2,225.44
▲ +0.82%
US spot Bitcoin ETFs AI
-411.9 $m
yday -49.9 $m
Outbound
US spot Ether ETFs AI
-93.2 $m
Outbound
Rates
US 2Y Data
4.51
yday 4.46
-7bp
US 10Y Data
4.86
yday 4.84
-4bp
US 30Y Data
5.26
yday 5.25
-2bp
2s10s spread Data
35.00
yday 38.00
+3bp
10Y-3M spread Data
67.00
yday 67.00
unch
Credit
US HY OAS Data
348.00
yday 332.00
+16bp
Baa-10Y spread Data
152.00
yday 154.00
-2bp
US high-yield OAS Data
348.00 bp
yday 332.00 bp
watch
Volatility
VIX Data
28.18
yday 16.61
+11.57 (+69.7%)
VIX divided by 3-month VIX Data
1.00 ratio
watch
VIX9D divided by VIX, Nov 5 term Data
1.16 ratio
watch
Dollar & FX
US Dollar Index (DXY) Data
102.28
yday 101.82
+0.73 (+0.7%)
EUR/USD Data
1.11
yday 1.12
▼ -0.76%
Breadth
% > 50d Data
60.1%
yday 58.9%
—
% > 200d Data
62.4%
yday 63.1%
—
Adv / Dec Data
191 / 238
yday 239 / 191
—
New hi / lo Data
64 / 16
yday 65 / 15
—
SPY−RSP 1d Data
-1.5pp
yday -1.6pp
—
SPY−RSP 5d Data
-4.83pp
yday -2.74pp
—
SPY−RSP 21d Data
-7.82pp
yday -4.49pp
—
% from 52w Data
-6.18%
yday -1.91%
—
Europe % > SMA50 Data
36.7%
yday 36.7%
—
Europe % > SMA200 Data
70.0%
yday 70.0%
—
Europe % advancing Data
38.1%
yday 33.3%
—
Stock-bond 20-session correlation (SPY vs TLT) Data
-0.07 ratio
watch
Share of the S&P universe above the 200-day Data
62.38 pct
watch
Cross-asset
Average pairwise 20-session sector correlation Data
0.22 ratio
calm
Cover checks
VIX above 25 Data
25.64 / 25.00
yday 28.18 / 25.00
Triggered
10Y-2Y spread below -0.20 Data
0.35 / -0.20
yday 0.38 / -0.20
Not Triggered
HY OAS above 500bp Data
348.00 / 500.00
yday 332.00 / 500.00
Not Triggered
S&P drawdown from ATH beyond -10% Data
-5.89 / -10.00
yday -6.18 / -10.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Deflationary bust
AIThe jobs beat argues against a real-economy bust, but the book still sits in the bust quadrant because the S&P is 5.89% under its high, HY OAS widened to 348bp, and copper did not confirm growth. One CPI print can change the quadrant. Until then the weights stay gold 25, long bon
• Do not add a second technology ticket while XLK and SMH are under the 50-day.
• Let Tuesday's CPI settle the jobs beat before adding duration or a second oil expression.
AIOne of four hard triggers is fired: Friday's VIX is 25.64 versus a 25 threshold. The curve is +35bp, HY OAS is 348bp, and the S&P is 5.89% under its high, not 10%. That is a neutral stance. The book stays in the deflationary-bust mix because the week still has equities and copper soft and credit wider, even after the jobs beat. No second stress internal is in place, so the crash-hedge sleeve stays at zero.
Each symbol is compared with the S&P 500, not with its own price. Left to right (RS-ratio) is relative strength: above 100 means it has been stronger than the market. Bottom to top (RS-momentum) is whether that lead is growing: above 100 means it is getting stronger. Leading, top right, is strong and still improving. Weakening, bottom right, is still ahead but fading. Lagging, bottom left, is behind and still losing ground. Improving, top left, is behind but turning up. Leadership usually moves clockwise. The list and the chart are the same symbols.
Quadrant
Symbols
Leading
XLV Health Care, XLP Staples, XLY Discretionary, XLRE Real Estate, XLU Utilities, XLB Materials, XLF Financials
Improving
XLI Industrials
Weakening
XLE Energy
Lagging
XLC Communication, XLK Technology
Relative rotation (RS-ratio vs momentum)
Yield curve: today vs prior
VIX term structure
Event radar · next 7 days
Date
Event
11-10 12:30
● Consumer Price Index US
11-10 12:30
● US CPI US
11-13 12:30
● Producer Price Index US
TradingView
This heatmap is TradingView, with its own data and its mark left in place. It is not the numbers in this letter. The other panels load when you choose them. If a panel is empty, their data-set name changed; the charts above still stand.
Global indices
5/11 above 200d · 3/11 above 50d · 2/11 up today · 2 within 3% of 52w high · best 1m: DAX +3.8% · worst 1m: Nasdaq-100 -14.7%
Index
Last
1d
5d
1m
3m
YTD
vs 52w hi
vs 200d
vs 50d
RS
United States
S&P 500
7,353.73
-4.36%
-4.75%
-4.08%
-1.20%
+7.42%
-6.16%
+1.16%
-4.27%
bench.
Nasdaq-100
26,629.81
-6.36%
-9.43%
-14.71%
-9.34%
+5.47%
-14.71%
-4.75%
-10.29%
Lagging94.1
Nasdaq Composite
24,315
-5.52%
-7.14%
-11.90%
-7.72%
+4.62%
-11.90%
-3.04%
-8.23%
Lagging96.2
Dow Jones Industrial
51,523.06
-3.44%
-1.57%
0.00%
-4.38%
+7.20%
-5.20%
+1.72%
-1.17%
Leading102.8
Russell 2000
2,729.89
-4.45%
-4.52%
-3.55%
-9.05%
+9.99%
-11.03%
-2.76%
-4.13%
Improving99.3
Europe
Euro Stoxx 50
6,231.54
-0.55%
+0.39%
-1.37%
-0.86%
+7.51%
-4.88%
+2.22%
-1.49%
Leading102.7
DAX
26,325.01
-0.43%
+1.10%
+3.75%
+6.02%
+7.49%
-0.44%
+5.77%
+1.94%
Leading106.5
CAC 40
8,205.37
+0.34%
+2.95%
+1.57%
-1.60%
+0.69%
-5.97%
-0.15%
+0.07%
Leading104.3
FTSE 100
10,782.7
-0.43%
+0.57%
+1.16%
+2.54%
+8.57%
-1.17%
+2.81%
+0.28%
Leading104.4
Asia
Nikkei 225
57,434.77
-7.64%
-8.70%
-12.82%
-11.11%
+14.09%
-20.63%
-6.80%
-12.68%
Lagging94.7
Hang Seng
24,533.36
+2.86%
+3.56%
-0.75%
+3.88%
-4.28%
-12.28%
-3.62%
-1.55%
Lagging95.6
daily close, local currency (not FX-adjusted); 52w high uses closes
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 2 minThe S&P 500 rose 0.31% to 7376.86 as a 165,000 October jobs print and a chip bounce repaired only part of Thursday's AI break. The Nasdaq gained 1.09% to 24579.43, the Dow fell 0.46%, and t…
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
The S&P 500 rose 0.31% to 7376.86 as a 165,000 October jobs print and a chip bounce repaired only part of Thursday's AI break. The Nasdaq gained 1.09% to 24579.43, the Dow fell 0.46%, and the VIX eased to 25.64.
How Yesterday Unfolded
Asia Asia took Thursday's US break first. The Nikkei fell 5.96% to 57434.77 and the KOSPI fell 6.02% to 5059.69. Shanghai closed down 1.23% at 3644.67.
Europe Europe followed, not the US bounce. The STOXX 600 fell 1.00% to 648.33, the DAX 1.92% to 25820.36, the CAC 0.81% to 8139 and the FTSE 1.01% to 10673.90, ending off the lows once US chips turned up.
US The US session was mixed after payrolls rose 165,000 against a forecast near 59,000. The S&P gained 0.31% to 7376.86 and the Nasdaq 1.09% to 24579.43, while the Dow fell 0.46% to 51285.73 and the VIX fell 9.01% to 25.64.
Asia sold the US break before Europe did — Korea and Japan were already down about 6% by the time Europe opened, so the Friday US bounce did not reset the global tape.
Bridge to Today
If Tuesday's CPI is hot, Friday's tech bounce is a one-day repair and the VIX, still 25.64, can revisit Thursday's 28.18.
Nasdaq Composite-5.52% today
−3%+3%
US 10Y4.86%
3%6%
Now. The Nasdaq's move on this tape, and the 10-year. Yesterday's close stays in the sentence above.
GeneralConcept of the Day 1 minWhat market breadth actually counts
CONCEPT OF THE DAY
What market breadth actually counts
Why today : Friday's breadth file showed 191 advancers against 238 decliners, and SPY lagged RSP by 1.52 percentage points.
Market breadth counts how many stocks rose or fell. It is not another name for the index. The advance/decline line keeps a running total of that net. An index can rise on a few large names while most stocks fall, and it can fall while the average stock is fine. The useful question is whether the average stock agrees with the index. Several sessions of rising advancers mean a move has company. Decliners leading while the index is green means the move is narrow and easier to reverse. Next time this newsletter quotes breadth, read it as participation, not as a second price.
Stocks
StocksUS Equity Ideas 1 minBDX BUY
US EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BDXNEW
Becton Dickinson
6.5
-0.78%
BDXGROWTHBUYNEW
Becton Dickinson • Health Care
6.5/10Conviction
$211.88
▼ -0.78%
FY27 adjusted EPS is guided to $13.10–$13.30. Own it only while healthcare's relative-strength lead survives Tuesday's CPI.
FY27 adjusted EPS guided to $13.10–$13.30.No options or flow series on this pull.Nov 5 guide, with volume 2.4x at the 52-weHealthcare is the relative-strength leaderRSI 76 and a fresh 52-week high, so the en
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
FY27 adjusted EPS guided to $13.10–$13.30 on Nov 5US CPI on 2026-11-10
Invalidation: A close under the 50-day near $188, or a cut to the FY27 range.
TradingView's price for BDX. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 1 min
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 5 minFour sleeves still clear a full uptrend, but only staples and financials are fresh buys. Technology, semis, energy and biotech stay exits under the 50-day.
TREND FOLLOW
Four sleeves still clear a full uptrend, but only staples and financials are fresh buys. Technology, semis, energy and biotech stay exits under the 50-day.
7 of 17 scored universe names closed above the 50-day. QQQ had too few bars to score, and ITA's history was discarded as a bad print.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
XLP
Consumer Staples
6
-1.28%
XLF
Financials
6.5
-0.59%
XLV
Health Care
6.7
-0.06%
XLB
Materials
5
-0.73%
XLE
Energy
4
-0.02%
XLK
Technology
3.5
+1.45%
SMH
Semiconductors
3
+3.62%
XBI
Biotech
3.5
+2.57%
XLPSTAPLESBUY🔥 23-issue streak
Consumer Staples
6/10Conviction
$90.08
▼ -1.28%
Stay with staples while the 50-day holds. Friday's -1.28% was a giveback, not a break of the relative-strength lead.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sFriday was the weakest sector, so the add Staples leadership is crowded after a multAbove both averages; 20-day RS versus SPY
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
8/10
20-day RS versus SPY still positive
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XLP. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLP · 20d illustrative range
XLFFINANCIALSBUY🔥 8-issue streak
Financials
6.5/10Conviction
$57.16
▼ -0.59%
Financials still clear the trend rules after the jobs beat. Do not add a second ticket while a buy is already pending.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sThe jobs beat helps banks; the ETF still fRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sAbove both averages with RS versus SPY of
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
7/10
October payrolls beatStill above the 50-day
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day near $56.
TradingView's price for XLF. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLF · 20d illustrative range
XLVHEALTH CAREHOLD🔥 28-issue streak
Health Care
6.7/10Conviction
$184.80
▼ -0.06%
Healthcare stays a hold: the trend is intact and the position is already on the book, so this is not a fresh add.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sHealthcare led the 20-day tape; Friday wasDefensive leadership is the trend, not a nAbove the 50-day and the 200-day; RS versu
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
8/10
Leading 20-day relative strength
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day near $173.
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLV · 20d illustrative range
XLBMATERIALSHOLD🔥 18-issue streak
Materials
5/10Conviction
$51.95
▼ -0.73%
Materials stay a hold only because the close is still above the 50-day. Copper has not confirmed a new leg.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo fresh materials catalyst beyond the copRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sBarely above the 50-day; RS versus SPY is
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
6/10
Close still above the 50-day
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day near $51.
TradingView's price for XLB. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLEENERGYEXIT🔥 25-issue streak
Energy
4/10Conviction
$61.62
▼ -0.02%
Energy is an exit. A flat oil settle does not put XLE back above its 50-day.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sWTI settled almost flat; the trend rule stRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sA shade under the 50-day near 64.51.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
WTI settle 90.83, up 0.34%
Invalidation: The exit is the close under the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLKTECHNOLOGYEXIT🔥 28-issue streak
Technology
3.5/10Conviction
$164.74
▲ +1.45%
Technology stays an exit until a close reclaims the 50-day. Friday's bounce is not that close.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sFriday's +1.45% bounce did not retake the Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sThe close is about 12% under the 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
Friday bounce of 1.45%
Invalidation: Exit stands until a close back above the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XLK. It is not the last print in this letter.
SMHTECHNOLOGYEXIT🔥 28-issue streak
Semiconductors
3/10Conviction
$463.96
▲ +3.62%
Semiconductors stay an exit. A 3.62% bounce does not repair an 18% gap under the 50-day.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sFriday's +3.62% is a bounce, not a repaireRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sAbout 18% under the 50-day after the chip
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
2/10
Friday SMH bounce of 3.62%
Invalidation: Exit stands until a close back above the 50-day.
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
XBIHEALTH CAREEXIT🔥 2-issue streak
Biotech
3.5/10Conviction
$152.21
▲ +2.57%
Biotech is an exit while the close is under its 50-day. The Friday bounce does not change the rule.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo new biotech catalyst cleared the exit rRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sClose is under the 50-day despite Friday's
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
3/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
4/10
Friday bounce did not retake the average
Invalidation: Exit stands until a close back above the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XBI. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Forex
ForexForex Rebalancing Radar 1 minTilt a small slice of EUR cash toward USD into Tuesday: EURUSD is 1.1142. Keep it small because the FRED 2-year fell 7bp to 4.51.
INCREASE USD vs EUR — Move a small slice of EUR cash into USD into Nov 10, and stop if CPI undoes the spot move.
Conviction 30%
Crypto
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minSpot bitcoin ETFs lost about $412m on Nov 6, a second outflow day. Bitcoin at 75985 and ether at 2243.78 are bounces under the 50-day, not a new bid.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Spot bitcoin ETFs lost about $412m on Nov 6, a second outflow day. Bitcoin at 75985 and ether at 2243.78 are bounces under the 50-day, not a new bid.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
3.8
+0.53%
ETH-USD
Ether
3.5
+0.82%
BTC-USDWATCH🔥 70-issue streak
Bitcoin
3.8/10Conviction
$75985.00
▲ +0.53%
Bitcoin stays a watch under the 50-day while spot ETFs are in a second outflow day. CPI, not a network event, is the next test.
No issuance or realized-price series scoreUS spot ETFs saw about $412m leave on Nov The next dated print is CPI, not a networkA weekend bounce does not replace two outf75985 is still under the 50-day near 80675
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
3/10
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
4/10
About $412m left US spot ETFs on Nov 6US CPI on 2026-11-10
Invalidation: A daily close under 70,000, or a third large outflow day.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Ether does not earn a buy while it lags its 50-day and the cited spot-ether flow is also negative. Wait for CPI.
No supply or fee series scored this run.A secondary source put ether ETF flow at -No ether-specific catalyst before Tuesday'Ether is tracking bitcoin's outflow tape, 2243 is about 10% under the 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
3/10
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
3/10
Cited ether ETF outflow of about $93mUS CPI on 2026-11-10
Invalidation: A daily close under 2,000.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 3 minPlatinum was the only major metal up, wheat is pinned by Nov 10-11 Black Sea talks, and WTI at 90.83 leaves the Iran decision as a binary.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Platinum was the only major metal up, wheat is pinned by Nov 10-11 Black Sea talks, and WTI at 90.83 leaves the Iran decision as a binary.
The FRED 10-year is 4.86, down 4bp, and the dollar tile is 102.28, up 0.73. That mix can keep a precious bid alive even while copper does not confirm growth. A…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
PL=F
Platinum
5
+0.83%
ZW=F
Wheat
5.3
-1.34%
CL=F
WTI crude
5.5
+0.34%
PlatinumPRECIOUS METALWATCH
PL=F
5/10Conviction
$1538.20
▲ +0.83%
Platinum can hold a bid into Tuesday's CPI because it was the only major metal higher on Friday, but it is still under the 50-day.
No inventory or lease-rate series in this No COT print in the inputs.Only major metal up Friday; CPI Tuesday isIt rode the precious-metal week, not a newStill about 11% under its 50-day average.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
4/10
Friday settle was the lone metal gainUS CPI on 2026-11-10
Invalidation: A hot CPI print or a close back under 1525.
TradingView's price for PL=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
Wheat stays a watch into the Nov 10-11 Abu Dhabi talks: ample stocks cap a rally unless the Black Sea premium returns.
Export sales helped; ample stocks still caNo COT series in this run.Black Sea talks in Abu Dhabi are set for NPeace-talk pressure is already the consens41 bars and a skipped session — no 50-day.
Fundamentals
5/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
—
Abu Dhabi talks on Nov 10-11Export sales beat, but the seasonal lean is lower
Invalidation: A close back above 610 before the talks end.
TradingView's price for ZW=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
WTI at 90.83 is a decision, not a trend: the next move is whether Washington seeks a deal or further strikes.
Friday WTI settle 90.83, up 0.34% from ThuNo positioning series priced this run.Trump said he will soon choose a deal or mThe premium is old; the decision window isStill just under the 50-day near 91.06.
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
4/10
Trump said he will soon choose a deal or more strikesFriday settle was only +0.34%
Invalidation: A settle under 87 that sticks, the stale quote from earlier this week.
TradingView's price for CL=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 5 min30d hit rate 44%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech-US
-3.54%
Named holdings. 140 smaller positions (29.37%) are off this picture.
Tech-US
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$96463.83
Cash
$10835.40
P&L
$-3536.17 (-3.54%)
Realized P&L
$-3536.17
TWR
-3.54%
Sharpe
-4.46
Max DD
-3.54%
Sortino
-4.32
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions89%
Cash11%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
BDX
1.02
pending
Sell
DELL
4.54
pending
Sell
APH
3.31
pending
Sell
IREN
5.54
pending
Sell
LITE
0.2454
pending
Sell
JBHT
0.9336
pending
Sell
LRCX
0.7366
pending
Sell
COIN
1.09
pending
Sell
JCI
1.3
pending
Sell
SNX
0.6996
pending
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$7858.75
-7.8%
XOM ×129
$21367.69
+8.5%
UNH ×8.49
$3347.36
-7.5%
INTC ×14.08
$792.46
-34.8%
MSFT ×12.33
$6544.38
+29.0%
AMZN ×5.95
$1543.54
-4.0%
CVX ×7.29
$1550.33
+6.9%
FRO ×38.46
$1746.83
+12.3%
+51 more holdings
Track Record
4 On Track · 3 Lagging · 2 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
CRM (2026-10-13)
6.7/10
-15.2%
Stopped Out
MSFT (2026-10-14)
6.7/10
+29.0%
On Track
UNH (2026-10-15)
7.2/10
-7.5%
Lagging
TSM (2026-10-16)
6.3/10
-7.8%
Lagging
AMZN (2026-10-20)
6.8/10
-4.0%
Lagging
SLB (2026-10-24)
7/10
-16.9%
Stopped Out
LLY (2026-10-30)
7/10
+15.1%
On Track
XOM (2026-10-31)
7/10
+8.5%
On Track
CVX (2026-11-01)
7.7/10
+6.9%
On Track
Euro-only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$97821.52
Cash
$14987.73
P&L
$-2178.48 (-0.22%)
Realized P&L
$-2178.48
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes were missing, so every line below is marked at cost rather than a fresh price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702
$702.62
—
TTE.PA ×368
$27276.04
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
—
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
—
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
—
GLE.PA ×22.15
$1755.04
—
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
—
NWG.L ×191
$1346.17
—
+47 more holdings
Penny-Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes were missing, so every line below is marked at cost rather than a fresh price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×232
$3755.55
—
PYPD ×1564
$6940.50
—
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
—
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$4850.98
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes were missing, so every line below is marked at cost rather than a fresh price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65
$25000.00
—
IEF ×164
$15012.91
—
DBC ×654
$20000.00
—
SPLV ×273
$20128.36
—
TLT ×194
$15007.74
—
Trend-follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$68979.54
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes were missing, so every line below is marked at cost rather than a fresh price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86
$5539.52
—
XLK ×22.6
$4510.76
—
SMH ×8.53
$5218.24
—
XLV ×30.27
$5207.77
—
XBI ×32
$5207.77
—
XLB ×93.53
$4954.78
—
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$26717.65
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes were missing, so every line below is marked at cost rather than a fresh price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×206
$26795.83
—
GLD ×30.1
$11738.20
—
CPER ×150
$5929.12
—
SLV ×93.58
$5545.24
—
PPLT ×66.63
$1111.38
—
BNO ×35.14
$1850.57
—
URA ×23.16
$1066.93
—
UGA ×26.78
$3377.87
—
+11 more holdings
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$32370.73
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes were missing, so every line below is marked at cost rather than a fresh price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5510
$35015.45
—
ETH-USD ×14.91
$28949.67
—
SOL-USD ×26.81
$2795.91
—
XRP-USD ×628
$868.24
—
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +44.40%
Glossary
market breadth (A/D line)
Market breadth counts how many stocks rose or fell.
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.