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Into Wednesday’s FOMC (~87% hike odds) and Friday’s BoJ, this week’s own book still overweights the Hormuz/East-West oil sleeve and USD versus EUR cash, not duration or pennies. US cash slid four sessions to SPX 7591 then repaired Friday to 7657 (−2.0% from the ATH) with VIX back at 15.84 — treat both equity sleeves as neutral. Crypto lost the flow overweight after spot BTC ETFs leaked about $463M in the Sep 8–11 week, while ETH funds took in ~$197M; both majors stay HOLD. Long bonds stay underweight: Anti-Fragile kept TLT at 0, the 10-year sits at 4.97%, and HY OAS ~270bp is still too tight for an ~87% September hike path.
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Momentum |
Valuation |
Catalyst |
Crowding |
Composite |
| US equities Neutral |
3 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
3.3 |
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SPX slid four sessions from Friday’s 7718.60 to Thursday’s 7591.7 (−2.8% from the ATH) with VIX 17.84, then Friday’s CPI bounce to 7657 (+0.86%) left VIX 15.84; every issue stayed 0/4 crash-trigger risk-on. No cheap-multiple read: pulse kept median PE ~28 / cap-weighted ~59 through Friday, CRM was flagged at PE ~33, and software-multiple compression sat in risk_top5 after Oracle’s fade. The tape delivered Thursday’s PPI (+0.4%/+5.4%) and ECB hike, Friday’s CPI (+0.4%/+3.4%), Oracle’s after-hours beat, and still-dated Sep 16 FOMC plus MRK’s Sep 21 WINREVAIR PDUFA. Anti-repetition rotated the pair every session (FRO/CRM → QCOM/GLW → MRK/JEF → ORCL → DELL → ESI/VRTX → ALGT/COP), so no name repeated, but most issues still published one or two 6.2–7.5 BUY tickets.
Vs last week: Catalyst denser after CPI/PPI/ORCL/ECB printed and FOMC still ahead; the four-day fade-then-bounce leaves stance neutral.
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| EU equities Neutral |
3 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
3.0 |
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STOXX 647.77 (−0.32%) Tuesday and Stoxx 600 ~−0.7% into the ECB gave way to Thursday’s 636.49 (−0.61%) then a split Friday (DAX 25568 +0.82% vs later Stoxx 600 639.10 −1.34%) — no persistent EU-index trend beyond the oil sleeve. Sell-side PTs still implied real gaps — BofA NDX1.DE €54 vs ~€40.20, Citi KGX.DE €62 vs ~€48.36, Goldman BP.L 700p vs 565p, and NOVN.SW 185 vs 112 — rather than published multiples. Thursday’s ECB +25 bp to a 2.50% DFR (Lagarde’s ‘no-brainer’) landed, plus ISP.MI’s EGM for the €35.4B MPS bid, RIO.L Winu consent, and NOVN.SW’s October remibrutinib MS data still dated. EU tickers never repeated — NDX1 → KGX → RIO → ISP → BP → NOVN → TTE — so the week’s calls stayed diversified, not one-sided.
Vs last week: ECB hike landed and energy (BP/TTE) replaced industrials/banks, but PT-gap valuation and diversified calls are unchanged.
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| Penny / micro Underweight |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
2.5 |
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penny_plays printed BFRI 5.0 / OTLK 4.0 watchlist-only on Tuesday–Wednesday, then the screener stayed empty Sep 10–14 — no name cleared the 6/10 buy bar. The only theses cited dilution and the $5 screen (PYPD 5.15 / SVRA 5.30 failed it) — not multiples — as the reason nothing reached buy-tier. BFRI’s Sep 28 Ameluz PDUFA sat on the Tuesday–Wednesday calendars only; after the book stopped recycling the pair, no new dated microcap binary replaced it. BFRI/OTLK streaks hit 13 then the later issues explicitly did not recycle them — already-loud names, but the week’s own calls stopped repeating the pair.
Vs last week: Book stopped recycling BFRI/OTLK after Wednesday — still no buy-tier print; crowding eased as the pair left the page.
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| Commodities Overweight |
5 |
3 |
5 |
4 |
4.3 |
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WTI’s Hormuz premium ran Tuesday 94.08 through Thursday ~103.45, held Friday’s $100.05 settle, and Monday gapped to 102.74 / Brent 107.34 after the East-West shutdown; USO then BNO stayed HOLD rather than fading. Gold was capped by hike-odds/real-rate pressure (GLD 406→396) while crude embeds a war premium the book refused to chase — every issue was HOLD/no-add on an already-loaded oil sleeve. Live Hormuz plus Monday’s Saudi East-West shutdown, Thursday PPI and Friday CPI oil-inflation prints, Friday WASDE (corn yield 178.5), the World Nuclear Symposium, and the Sep 14 Iran–Gulf ministers meeting kept the calendar dense. The book was already oil-heavy — USO then BNO HOLD/no-add every session, CPER REDUCE after the tariff delay — daily anti-rep (USO/WEAT → USO/CPER → BNO/CPER → BNO/URA → BNO) because crude was crowded.
Vs last week: WTI cleared $100 and Monday’s East-West gap re-upped Brent to $107 — still HOLD/no-add, overweight the oil sleeve.
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| Crypto Neutral |
3 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
3.0 |
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BTC chopped $77.1k–$79.2k and finished Monday ~$77.6k below last Monday’s ~$79.7k; ETH ended ~$2.51k versus last Monday $2.51k — constructive chop, not a one-way trend. The week’s flow-versus-price read flipped: spot BTC ETFs leaked about $463M in the Sep 8–11 week (first negative week since mid-August) while ETH funds took in ~$197M — HOLD, not a cheap-entry add. No dated network event printed until Monday’s CLARITY Act Sep 15 tag; the live catalysts were successive ETF-flow prints, Block’s OCC trust-bank filing, and the same Sep 16 FOMC gate. BTC and ETH appeared in every issue and by Thursday both were already-held HOLD/no-add — consensus long both majors into FOMC, just no longer a BUY.
Vs last week: BTC ETF week flipped to −$463M and both majors went HOLD — flow overweight dropped to neutral.
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| FX Overweight |
4 |
3 |
5 |
5 |
4.3 |
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USD short-term seek versus EUR lasted the whole week (streak 12→18, score 6 except a Thursday dip to 5) and Monday still leaned EUR→USD at conviction 6 after EURUSD printed 1.1558. The real-rate gap (10s 4.77–4.97% vs ECB DFR 2.25 then 2.50%) was the USD bid, not a cheap-EUR call; USD long-term stayed twin-deficit neutral and JPY flipped avoid→neutral Monday after the already-delivered surge. ECB Sep 10 delivered +25 bp to 2.50%, Friday CPI, plus still-dated Sep 16 FOMC, ECB DFR effective that Wednesday, and BoJ Sep 18 after the USDJPY ~154 squeeze. Every issue increased USD versus EUR — a one-sided EUR-cash underweight of the home currency, now on an 18-session USD seek streak.
Vs last week: USD seek streak ran 12→18 and EURUSD printed 1.1558 — still overweight USD vs EUR cash, crowding a rung louder.
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| Rates / credit Underweight |
2 |
3 |
5 |
4 |
3.5 |
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Duration never caught a bid: the 10-year backed up from 4.784% to 4.97%, the 2s–10s sat ~+0.33–0.41, and Anti-Fragile kept TLT at 0 every session — bond-price momentum stayed soft. HY OAS sat ~2.65–2.70 (too tight for an ~86–87% hike path) while 10-year 4.97% offered carry versus EUR cash but not a TLT overweight. September FOMC hike-sticks was rank-1 risk all seven days (streak 12→18), gated by Sep 10 PPI/ECB, Sep 11 CPI (+0.4%/+3.4%), Sep 16 FOMC, and BoJ Sep 18. The hike-and-stick risk and TLT=0 / cash-heavy Anti-Fragile weights repeated every issue — consensus underweight of long duration.
Vs last week: 10s backed up to 4.97% and hike odds ~87% — TLT still 0; duration underweight unchanged.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research before investing.
Morning Alpha • Generated Mon, 14 Sep 2026 10:20:00 GMT
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