|
|
⚠ Data quality: DEGRADED
market_pulse — Monday Zurich pre-US-cash open: equity/index/^VIX use Fri 2026-07-24 AP/MarketScreener/CNBC closes (Yahoo live null close). ^TNX Monday ~4.63% from Reuters (Fri EODHD 4.679). EURUSD/GC/CL/HG Yahoo Mon prints; BTC/ETH CoinGecko Mon.
us_equity_ideas — Fundamentals waterfall sparse/circuit_open. Prices AlphaVantage Fri (INTC 92.32 / ASML 1757.09 / XOM 156.94). Catalysts: Intel IR Q2 + Jul 26 call highlights; ASML High-NA/Intel read-through; XOM Jul 31 earnings vs Mon oil −5% pause.
eu_equity_ideas — eu_fundamentals_gap: ASML.AS/TTE.PA fundamentals sparse. Prices AlphaVantage Fri (ASML.AS €1563 / TTE.PA €75.90). Oil pause is the fresh tape risk for TTE.PA into Hormuz shipping still constrained.
penny_plays — OTLK AlphaVantage $1.405 Fri. /sentiment empty (Social_Momentum=0). FDA LYTENAVA approval Jul 24 (SEC 8-K) still the forward commercial binary; no stronger sub-$5 48h catalyst cleared Multibagger ≥6.
commodities_outlook — Futures Yahoo Mon (?assetClass=commodity): CL=F 84.82 (−5.0% vs Fri 89.31) / GC=F 4091.4 / HG=F 6.3415. ETF proxies AlphaVantage Fri (USO 136.69 / GLD 371.90 / CPER 38.35 / DBA 28.24). Macro FRED: DFII10 2.43 Jul 23; T10Y2Y 0.36 Jul 24; HY OAS 2.77 Jul 23.
forex_rebalancing — FX Yahoo Mon EURUSD 1.1405 / USDJPY 163.82; FRED OK (ECBDFR 2.25 / DFEDTARU 3.75 Jul 26; T10Y2Y 0.36). Aggregator /predictions Manifold Jul FOMC hike ~22.9% vs Reuters ~one-in-three FedWatch after oil skid. EUR omitted (base).
risk_top5 — VIX Fri 18.58; HY OAS 2.77 / IG OAS 0.79 (FRED Jul 23); T10Y2Y 0.36. Clean equity put/call unavailable. Forced-diversity credit slot (HY OAS still contained) replaces prior earnings category.
crypto_landscape — BTC/ETH CoinGecko Mon (~$65,260 / ~$1,952). Spot ETF: Fri BTC −$240M / ETH bleed (Currency Analytics/TFTC) after prior inflow weeks; DigitalToday weekly ETH inflows still ahead of BTC. StablecoinBeat Jul 25: total ~$299.4B.
risk_cover_playbook — Hedge ETFs verified via AlphaVantage/history (SH 33.50 / TLT 83.25 / VIXY 21.44 / GLD 371.90 Fri).
portfolio_reality_check — Step 0 reset guard (portfolio_reset_date=2026-07-19): reviewing only picks with artifact date >= reset. INTC −7.89% vs Jul 24 pick still approaching −8% stop (not triggered). Sharpe null on fresh books recorded as 0.0. EURO/PENNY/COMMODITIES/CRYPTO marks use aggregator Fri/Mon prices where PM current_price null.
|
|
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Oil owns the Monday open for the wrong reason: WTI plunged to $84.82 (−5.0% vs Fri $89.31) and Brent ~$91.7 as the US–Iran strike pause stripped the $100 risk premium — gold bounced to $4,091.4 on the companion 10Y drop toward ~4.63%, while copper chopped at $6.34.
Cross-Commodity Macro Linkage
Oil down hard while gold up and real-rate proxy DFII10 still 2.43 is a classic de-escalation/disinflation-relief mix into Jul 28–29 FOMC — if Hormuz tanker traffic stays <10 vessels/day (Kpler), crude can re-price the pause as temporary and gold keeps an event-risk bid; if diplomacy sticks, expect energy to keep giving back July gains and precious metals to trade as a rates contract rather than a war contract.
|
Gold
PRECIOUS METAL BUY 🔥 17-issue streak
GC=F
|
$4091.40
▲ +0.51%
|
Over the next few sessions into the July 28–29 FOMC, expect gold to defend ~$4,050–4,130 rather than fade with oil — Monday's $4,091.4 (+0.5% vs Fri $4,070.8; spot near $4,103 per Reuters) tracks the 10Y down ~5bps to ~4.63% as hike odds cooled after the crude skid. Conviction 6.5 = one strong freshness signal (yields/oil-relief bid into FOMC) without a second independent demand confirm (DFII10 still 2.43).
⚡ July 27: gold +~1.3% toward $4,103 as oil plunged on US–Iran pause (Reuters) ⚡ GC=F Monday $4,091.4 after Friday $4,070.8 settle ⚡ GLD ETF proxy Friday $371.90 — paper sleeve for the futures BUY ⚡ Watch: July 28–29 FOMC and whether DFII10 breaks below ~2.3%
|
|
WTI Crude Oil
ENERGY HOLD 🔥 17-issue streak
CL=F
|
$84.82
▼ -5.03%
|
Into FOMC and any ceasefire/diplomacy headlines, expect WTI to chop $82–88 rather than re-test last week's $89–91 — Monday's $84.82 (−5.0% vs Fri) priced the US–Iran strike pause even while Kpler still shows <10 Hormuz commodity vessels/day and Red Sea Bab el-Mandeb traffic slowed after Houthi hits. Conviction 5.5 HOLD: the BUY thesis of an expanding war premium is broken for now; physical corridor risk remains but is no longer one-way.
⚡ July 27: WTI ~$84.5–84.8 / Brent ~$91.7 (−~5%) after US–Iran pause (Reuters/OilPrice) ⚡ Kpler: Hormuz transit still <10 vessels/day over the weekend; Bab el-Mandeb slowed Jul 26 ⚡ USO ETF proxy Friday $136.69 — will gap with futures when US cash opens ⚡ Watch: tanker-transit rebound vs re-escalation headlines before Wed FOMC
|
|
Copper
INDUSTRIAL METAL HOLD 🔥 17-issue streak
HG=F
|
$6.34
▼ -0.25%
|
Over the next week, expect copper to stay range-bound near $6.30–6.50 — Monday's $6.3415 (−0.3% vs Fri) shows no fresh physical/China demand catalyst strong enough for BUY after Friday's −2.5% risk-off washout. Conviction 5.0 HOLD.
⚡ Monday HG=F $6.3415 after Friday $6.3575 ⚡ CPER ETF Friday $38.35 — industrial-metal beta still soft with semis ⚡ Watch: China PMI / LME inventory prints this week
|
|
Agriculture (DBA)
AGRICULTURE HOLD 🔥 17-issue streak
DBA
|
$28.24
▲ +0.00%
|
Into FOMC week, expect DBA to remain a low-beta diversifier near $28.24 — Friday flat with no dated weather/harvest shock clearing the BUY bar. Conviction 5.0 HOLD.
⚡ Friday DBA unchanged at $28.24 ⚡ No fresh 48h USDA/weather catalyst for a directional sleeve
|
|
|
MARKET PULSE
|
S&P 500
7411.98
▲ +0.05%
|
NASDAQ
24975.82
▼ -0.64%
|
Dow Jones
51947.25
▲ +0.46%
|
Russell 2K
2930
▼ -0.35%
|
VIX
18.58
▼ -0.64%
|
EUR/USD
1.140511
▲ +0.26%
|
Gold
4091.4
▲ +0.51%
|
Oil (WTI)
84.82
▼ -5.03%
|
Bitcoin
65260
▲ +1.21%
|
10Y Yield
4.63
▼ -1.05%
|
The dominant Monday theme is oil de-escalation into FOMC: WTI crashed to $84.82 (−5.0%) and Brent ~$91.7 after the US–Iran strike pause, while S&P/Nasdaq futures bid ~+0.7%/+1.1% off Friday's 7,411.98 / 24,975.82 closes. The inter-market tell is yields easing ~4bps to a ~4.63% 10-year even as VIX still sits at Friday's 18.58 — inflation-hike fear cooling, not a VIX capitulation. Gold to ~$4,091–4,103 and EURUSD to 1.1405 track that rates relief. Watch the July 28–29 FOMC (decision Wed 14:00 ET): Reuters still implies ~one-in-three hike odds versus Manifold ~22.9%, with mega-cap earnings (MSFT/META/AAPL/AMZN) stacked the same week.
|
|
US EQUITY IDEAS
|
INTC
RECOVERY BUY 🔥 4-issue streak
Intel Corporation • Technology
|
$92.32
▼ -7.89%
|
Over the next 1–2 weeks into the mega-cap AI earnings cluster and any foundry-customer headlines, expect INTC to stabilize only if it holds the post-washout mid-$90s — Friday's $92.32 (−7.9% vs Thu $100.23) still prices execution skepticism even after the Jul 23 beat ($16.1B revenue / $0.42 non-GAAP EPS) and Jul 26 call emphasis on CapEx >$20B plus High-NA Panther Lake HVM. Conviction 6.5 = one strong freshness signal (Q2 print + call follow-through within 48–72h); paper book is already −7.89% vs the Jul 24 add and approaching the −8% stop.
⚡ Jul 23 IR: Q2 revenue $16.1B (+25% YoY), non-GAAP EPS $0.42; Q3 guide $15.8–16.8B ⚡ Jul 26 earnings-call recap: CapEx outlook raised above $20B; demand outrunning supply (Stock Observer) ⚡ ASML High-NA EUV in HVM for Panther Lake — foundry execution read-through ⚡ Watch: whether $92–95 holds on Monday cash open after weekend futures bid
|
Mkt Cap
N/A
| |
P/E
N/A
| |
Beta
N/A
| |
Target
$110.00
| |
Conviction
6.5/10
|
|
|
ASML
GROWTH BUY 🔥 19-issue streak
ASML Holding N.V. (ADR) • Technology
|
$1757.09
▼ -2.55%
|
Into this week's mega-cap AI prints, expect ASML ADR to trade as the cleanest lithography bottleneck proxy — Friday's $1,757.09 digested with semis even as Intel's High-NA HVM confirmation and ASML's own raised 2026 guide keep the multi-quarter demand case intact. Conviction 6.5 = one strong confirming signal (Intel Foundry High-NA HVM + earnings-week read-through); not 8+ without a fresh named PT upgrade in the last 48h.
⚡ Intel Jul 23–26: High-NA EUV in high-volume Panther Lake manufacturing (ASML/Intel read-through) ⚡ Mega-cap AI earnings week (MSFT/META/AAPL/AMZN) as capex-ROI referee ⚡ Friday ASML ADR $1,757.09 after mid-week $1,800+ prints ⚡ Watch: whether ADR reclaims ~$1,800 if futures strength holds into cash
|
Mkt Cap
N/A
| |
P/E
N/A
| |
Beta
N/A
| |
Target
$1950.00
| |
Conviction
6.5/10
|
|
|
XOM
COMMODITY BUY 🔥 19-issue streak
Exxon Mobil Corporation • Energy
|
$156.94
▲ +0.03%
|
Into the July 31 Q2 print, expect XOM to trade as a tug-of-war between still-elevated realized Q2 crude and Monday's spot oil dump — Friday's $156.94 still embeds the Hormuz premium while WTI −5% to $84.82 overnight removes some of the path-dependency that justified conviction 8 last week. Conviction 6.5 = one dated catalyst (Jul 31 earnings) plus the fresh oil-pause tape as the risk to the long; not a fresh BUY upgrade.
⚡ July 31: ExxonMobil Q2 2026 results scheduled (company IR) ⚡ July 27: WTI/Brent −~5% on US–Iran pause — energy-beta risk into the print (Reuters) ⚡ Hormuz transit still suppressed per Kpler — physical risk not fully cleared ⚡ Watch: Monday cash open gap in XLE/XOM vs futures and any tanker-traffic headlines
|
Mkt Cap
N/A
| |
P/E
N/A
| |
Beta
N/A
| |
Target
$170.00
| |
Conviction
6.5/10
|
|
|
|
EU EQUITY IDEAS
|
ASML.AS
GROWTH BUY 🔥 19-issue streak
ASML Holding N.V. • Technology
|
$1563.00
▼ -2.40%
|
Over the next week of US mega-cap AI earnings and the FOMC, expect ASML.AS to remain Europe's cleanest AI-capex bottleneck long — Friday's €1,563 holds the High-NA/Intel HVM confirmation as the demand tell even after the US ADR washout. Conviction 6.5 = one strong signal (Intel High-NA HVM + earnings-week read-through); eu_fundamentals_gap keeps the score honest.
⚡ Intel Jul 23–26 High-NA EUV HVM confirmation for Panther Lake ⚡ US mega-cap AI earnings week as European semi sentiment driver ⚡ Friday ASML.AS €1,563 (AlphaVantage) ⚡ Watch: EUR strength at 1.1405 vs ADR/local basis into Wed FOMC
|
Mkt Cap
N/A
| |
P/E
N/A
| |
Beta
N/A
| |
Target
$1750.00
| |
Conviction
6.5/10
|
|
|
TTE.PA
COMMODITY BUY 🔥 12-issue streak
TotalEnergies SE • Energy
|
$75.90
▲ +0.00%
|
Into the next few sessions after Monday's oil skid, expect TTE.PA to give back some of the Hormuz premium even while Q2 cash returns (€0.90 interim DPS; $1.5B Q3 buyback authorization) stay intact — Friday's €75.90 still prices elevated liquids, but Brent −5% to ~$91.7 overnight is the fresh risk. Conviction 6.5 = one freshness signal (oil-pause tape vs Jul 22–23 results continuity); lower than last week's 8.0 because the war-premium path is no longer one-way.
⚡ Jul 22–23: Q2 adjusted net income $6.0B; interim DPS €0.90; Q3 buybacks up to $1.5B ⚡ July 27: Brent/WTI −~5% on US–Iran pause (Reuters) — energy equity beta risk ⚡ Company still flags 5–10% ME production impact while Hormuz exports constrained ⚡ Watch: whether €74–76 holds on the cash open and tanker-traffic headlines
|
Mkt Cap
N/A
| |
P/E
N/A
| |
Beta
N/A
| |
Target
$82.00
| |
Conviction
6.5/10
|
|
|
|
PENNY PLAYS
|
OTLK
PENNY BUY 🔥 12-issue streak
Outlook Therapeutics, Inc. • Health Care
|
$1.41
▲ +6.44%
|
Over the next 1–2 quarters, expect re-rating if US commercial launch/reimbursement execution lands before year-end — Friday's $1.405 (+6.4% on the FDA approval day) is the proxy play on the ~$8.5B US retina anti-VEGF market now that LYTENAVA is the first FDA-approved ophthalmic bevacizumab. Bull case: clean launch + 12-year BPCIA exclusivity narrative. Bear case: dilution/cash burn to fund the commercial build after three prior CRLs. Conviction 7.0 Multibagger = narrative 2 + catalyst 2 + BS 1 + suppression 1 + insider 1 + social 0.
⚡ Jul 24 FDA approval of LYTENAVA (bevacizumab-vikg) for wet AMD — SEC 8-K / press release ⚡ Company targets US availability before end-2026; EU/UK launch already underway ⚡ Jul 24–25 follow-through coverage (Yahoo/RTT) still framing commercial binary ⚡ Risk: equity raise / dilution to fund retina commercial organization
|
Mkt Cap
N/A
| |
P/E
N/A
| |
Beta
N/A
| |
Target
$2.50
| |
Conviction
7/10
|
|
|
|
FOREX REBALANCING RADAR
Base currency: EUR — every stance below is relative to holding this currency's cash instead of EUR.
| Currency (vs EUR) |
Short-term |
Medium-term |
Long-term |
| USD 🔥4 |
SEEK (4) |
SEEK (2) |
NEUTRAL (0) |
|
Expect a smaller USD tilt vs EUR into Jul 28–29 FOMC — DFEDTARU 3.75 vs ECBDFR 2.25 still favors USD carry, but Monday's oil −5% and 10Y ~4.63% cooled hike odds (Reuters ~1-in-3; Manifold ~22.9%) vs last week's ~35–39% FedWatch tail.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces
|
| CHF 🔥19 |
SEEK (4) |
SEEK (3) |
NEUTRAL (1) |
|
Expect CHF to remain a defensive diversifier vs EUR while FOMC event vol and still-fragile Gulf diplomacy are live — most recent SNB assessment is still the June framework (no <30d surprise), so score capped near ±4.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces
|
| GBP 🔥19 |
SEEK (2) |
NEUTRAL (0) |
NEUTRAL (0) |
|
Expect only a mild GBP edge vs EUR into the BoE Thursday meeting — most recent guidance is not a fresh <30d hawkish surprise, so conviction stays low; relative UK services stickiness still slightly favors GBP over idle EUR cash.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces
|
| JPY 🔥19 |
AVOID (-5) |
AVOID (-4) |
NEUTRAL (-1) |
|
Expect JPY weakness vs EUR to persist near USDJPY ~163.8 into BoJ Jul 30–31 — ultra-easy policy vs ECBDFR 2.25 still dominates, and Monday's modest USD dip to ~163.54 (Reuters) did not break the multi-decade cheap JPY regime.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces
⚠ Contrarian watch: USDJPY still ~163.5–163.8 leaves MoF verbal/actual intervention risk live into BoJ Jul 30–31 — a one-way 'avoid JPY' EUR tilt can reverse violently if officials defend the 160s.
|
Suggested rebalancing actions
INCREASE USD vs EUR — Keep a tactical USD overweight into Wed FOMC — rate differential intact even after oil-cooled hike odds; conversion friction ~0.
INCREASE CHF vs EUR — Add CHF as FOMC/Gulf event-vol ballast while SNB stance is steady and EUR cash earns less on the margin.
DECREASE JPY vs EUR — Stay underweight JPY vs EUR into BoJ — funding-currency dynamics intact near USDJPY 163.8, with MoF intervention as the named upside risk.
|
|
TOP 5 RISKS RIGHT NOW
|
#1 — Strait of Hormuz / Red Sea oil-supply shock
🔥 19
Stable
Probability: HIGH
• Impact: HIGH
• Horizon: days to weeks
Watch: Kpler Hormuz daily vessel counts (still <10/day over weekend); Bab el-Mandeb traffic after Jul 26 Houthi Saudi attacks; Any breakdown of the US–Iran strike pause before/during FOMC week
|
|
#2 — Oil pass-through re-stoking core inflation / Fed path
🔥 19
Fading
Probability: MEDIUM
• Impact: HIGH
• Horizon: 1-3 months
Watch: July 28–29 FOMC decision and Warsh press conference; Whether WTI holds below ~$85 or reclaims $90+ on re-escalation; Manifold/FedWatch July hike probability path from ~23–33%
|
|
#3 — AI/semicapex concentration unwind (Alphabet/ASML/TSMC complex)
🔥 19
Escalating
Probability: MEDIUM
• Impact: HIGH
• Horizon: this week
Watch: MSFT/META/AAPL/AMZN prints this week as AI-capex ROI referee; Whether Nasdaq futures bid survives into cash after Fri −0.64%; ASML/INTC follow-through after High-NA/CapEx raises
|
|
#4 — USD/JPY intervention at multi-decade highs
🔥 19
Stable
Probability: MEDIUM
• Impact: MEDIUM
• Horizon: into BoJ Jul 30–31
Watch: USDJPY holding ~163.5–164 into BoJ; MoF verbal intervention headlines; BoJ Jul 30–31 decision vs market pricing
|
|
#5 — High-yield credit spread re-widening (breadth watch)
New
Probability: LOW
• Impact: MEDIUM
• Horizon: 1-3 months
Watch: FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 (HY OAS) — last 2.77 on Jul 23; IG OAS BAMLC0A0CM at 0.79; Any post-FOMC risk-off gap that pushes HY OAS toward 4–5%
|
|
|
CRASH / BEAR-MARKET COVER PLAYBOOK
Regime: RISK-ON
| VIX |
18.58 / 25 |
Not Triggered
|
| 10Y-2Y spread |
0.36 / -0.2 |
Not Triggered
|
| HY OAS (BAMLH0A0HYM2) |
2.77 / 5 |
Not Triggered
|
| S&P drawdown from recent high (~7509) |
-1.29 / -10 |
Not Triggered
|
If triggered today — do this now
• Trim high-beta semis/AI (INTC/ASML/TSM sleeve) by ~1/3
• Add SPY put spread or VIXY starter while VIX <25 still cheap vs crisis
• Raise USD/CHF cash buffer; treat energy (XOM/USO) as volatile geopolitical beta after Monday's −5% oil dump rather than a stable hedge
Hedge instruments: GLD, TLT, SH, VIXY
• Target cash: 20%
Zero of four crash triggers are live (VIX 18.58, curve +0.36, HY OAS 2.77, SPX only ~−1.3% from the recent ~7509 high), so regime stays risk-on — but today's named risks (fragile Hormuz pause, FOMC hike tail, AI-capex earnings week, USDJPY intervention, credit breadth watch) argue for keeping the hedge ticket list pre-validated. If two triggers flip, execute the checklist above within minutes rather than re-researching under stress.
|
|
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Monday crypto bounced with risk futures (BTC ~$65,260 / ETH ~$1,952) even as Friday's spot-ETF prints showed BTC −$240M and ETH also bleeding — weekly ETH inflows (~$104M) still outpaced BTC's slowed creations. Stablecoin float stays near $299.4B (USDT ~$184B / USDC ~$72.6B as of Jul 25). Into FOMC, treat the bounce as event-vol positioning, not a confirmed flow regime shift.
Institutional Moves
US spot Bitcoin ETFs
Friday Jul 24 saw ~$240M net outflows (TFTC/Currency Analytics), snapping a multi-day inflow streak even as July month-to-date creations stayed positive after June's heavy redemptions.
US spot Ethereum ETFs
Weekly net inflows ~$103.9M still led BTC's slowed ~$34M weekly pace (DigitalToday), with BlackRock ETHA the primary conduit — Friday session still printed redemptions inside that positive week.
Adoption Landscape
[Global] Stablecoin market cap ~$299.4B as of Jul 25 (USDT ~$184.0B / USDC ~$72.6B), −0.44% over the prior seven days with USDC shedding ~$705M on the week.
Asset Ideas
|
BTC
HOLD 🔥 17-issue streak
Bitcoin
|
$65260.00
▲ +1.21%
|
Into the Jul 28–29 FOMC, expect BTC to treat $64–66k as an event-vol range — Monday's ~$65,260 (+1.2% vs Sun) repairs some of Friday's ETF-outflow hangover but does not yet re-establish a sustained creation regime after the −$240M Jul 24 print. Conviction 5.5 HOLD: no second confirming inflow day yet.
⚡ Jul 24 spot BTC ETF −$240.1M (TFTC) ⚡ Monday CoinGecko ~$65,260 bounce with equity futures ⚡ Watch: first post-weekend ETF flow print and Wed FOMC
|
|
ETH
HOLD 🔥 17-issue streak
Ethereum
|
$1952.14
▲ +3.66%
|
Over the next 1–2 weeks, expect ETH to keep a relative-flow edge vs BTC if ETHA-led weekly creations persist — Monday's ~$1,952 (+3.7% vs Sun) is constructive, but Friday's session bleed and FOMC event risk keep this a HOLD rather than a chase. Conviction 5.5.
⚡ Weekly ETH spot ETF inflows ~$103.9M vs slower BTC weekly pace (DigitalToday) ⚡ Monday CoinGecko ~$1,952 rebound ⚡ Watch: whether ETHA creations resume after Friday redemptions
|
|
|
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
|
Tech US
Performance
|
TWR
-0.51%
|
Sharpe
0.00
|
Max DD
-0.51%
|
Today's Moves
BUY
INTC
×12.53
• dispatched
Over the next 1–2 weeks into the mega-cap AI earnings cluster and any foundry-customer headlines, expect INTC to stabilize only if it holds the post-washout mid-$90s — Friday's $92.32 (−7.9% vs Thu $100.23) still prices
BUY
ASML
×0.65
• dispatched
Into this week's mega-cap AI prints, expect ASML ADR to trade as the cleanest lithography bottleneck proxy — Friday's $1,757.09 digested with semis even as Intel's High-NA HVM confirmation and ASML's own raised 2026 guid
BUY
XOM
×7.07
• dispatched
Into the July 31 Q2 print, expect XOM to trade as a tug-of-war between still-elevated realized Q2 crude and Monday's spot oil dump — Friday's $156.94 still embeds the Hormuz premium while WTI −5% to $84.82 overnight remo
HOLD
INTC
×40.19
Still lagging at −7.89% vs Jul 24 pick — approaching but not through the −8% stop-loss rule.
Current Holdings
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$8444.22
-0.91%
ASML ×6.89
$12104.59
-0.53%
XOM ×89.56
$14055.69
+3.80%
UNH ×8.49
$3573.18
-1.26%
INTC ×40.19
$3710.26
-2.64%
Track Record
1 On Track · 4 Lagging · 1 Stopped Out
PositionConviction ThenReturn SinceVerdict
TSM (2026-07-18)
7/10
-0.91%
LAGGING
ASML (2026-07-18)
8/10
-0.53%
LAGGING
XOM (2026-07-18)
8/10
+3.80%
ON TRACK
UNH (2026-07-18)
7/10
-1.26%
LAGGING
INTC (2026-07-24)
7.5/10
-7.89%
LAGGING
GOOGL (2026-07-20)
7/10
-8.49%
STOPPED OUT
|
|
Euro Only
Performance
|
TWR
+0.00%
|
Sharpe
0.00
|
Max DD
+0.00%
|
Today's Moves
BUY
ASML.AS
×0.89
• dispatched
Over the next week of US mega-cap AI earnings and the FOMC, expect ASML.AS to remain Europe's cleanest AI-capex bottleneck long — Friday's €1,563 holds the High-NA/Intel HVM confirmation as the demand tell even after the
BUY
TTE.PA
×18.29
• dispatched
Into the next few sessions after Monday's oil skid, expect TTE.PA to give back some of the Hormuz premium even while Q2 cash returns (€0.90 interim DPS; $1.5B Q3 buyback authorization) stay intact — Friday's €75.90 still
Current Holdings
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×9.88
$15437.13
+0.31%
TTE.PA ×209.24
$15881.26
+4.39%
PositionConviction ThenReturn SinceVerdict
ASML.AS (2026-07-18)
7/10
+0.31%
ON TRACK
TTE.PA (2026-07-18)
7.5/10
+4.39%
ON TRACK
|
|
Penny Plays
Performance
|
TWR
+0.00%
|
Sharpe
0.00
|
Max DD
+0.00%
|
Today's Moves
BUY
OTLK
×1186.83
• dispatched
Over the next 1–2 quarters, expect re-rating if US commercial launch/reimbursement execution lands before year-end — Friday's $1.405 (+6.4% on the FDA approval day) is the proxy play on the ~$8.5B US retina anti-VEGF mar
Current Holdings
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
OTLK ×12032.08
$16905.07
+1.68%
PositionConviction ThenReturn SinceVerdict
OTLK (2026-07-18)
7/10
+1.68%
ON TRACK
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Anti-Fragile
Performance
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TWR
+0.00%
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Sharpe
0.00
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Max DD
+0.00%
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Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
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Trend Follow
Performance
|
TWR
+0.00%
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Sharpe
0.00
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Max DD
+0.00%
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Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
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Commodities
Performance
|
TWR
+0.00%
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Sharpe
0.00
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Max DD
+0.00%
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Today's Moves
BUY
GLD
×4.48
• dispatched
ETF proxy for GC=F BUY — Over the next few sessions into the July 28–29 FOMC, expect gold to defend ~$4,050–4,130 rather than fade with oil — Monday's $4,091.4 (+0.5% vs Fri $4,070.8; spot near $4,103 per Reuters) tracks
HOLD
USO
×128.34
No new oil BUY today after WTI −5% pause dump; existing USO sleeve retained but thesis downgraded to HOLD on CL=F.
Current Holdings
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
USO ×128.34
$17541.25
+5.52%
PositionConviction ThenReturn SinceVerdict
USO (2026-07-18)
8/10
+5.52%
ON TRACK
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Crypto
Performance
|
TWR
+0.00%
|
Sharpe
0.00
|
Max DD
+0.00%
|
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.20
$12856.22
+0.24%
ETH-USD ×4.62
$9015.96
+2.48%
PositionConviction ThenReturn SinceVerdict
BTC-USD (2026-07-18)
7/10
+0.24%
ON TRACK
ETH-USD (2026-07-20)
6.5/10
+2.48%
ON TRACK
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30-day hit rate across all portfolios: +58.33%
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research before investing.
Morning Alpha • Generated Mon, 27 Jul 2026 05:07:50 GMT • info@gmc-works.com
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