market_pulse — Saturday run: several symbols (^TNX, GC=F, CL=F, EURUSD=X) intermittently returned stale:true from the aggregator; all values cross-checked against 2026-07-31 closes via /history and match verified closes.
us_equity_ideas — Aggregator fundamentals waterfall fully down (sec_edgar, fmp, simfin all circuit_open) — ideas published without fundamentals enrichment (P/E, ROE, market cap null). Aggregator /news returned zero articles for every candidate; catalysts sourced via web search instead.
us_equity_ideas — CVX /price endpoint failed repeatedly (stooq anti-bot page) before twelvedata returned the 7/31 close of $196.83 on a later attempt; MPWR's aggregator history has a June-to-July gap, so Friday's +8.2% move is taken from press reports (StocksToTrade) rather than computed from history.
eu_equity_ideas — eu_fundamentals_gap: ACA.PA and NWG.L aggregator price history is stale (June); Friday closes sourced from press (ACA €19.41 via LSE.co.uk; NWG 705.8p via ADVFN). SU.PA/RR.L latest aggregator close is 2026-07-30; Friday's EU closes not yet in the feed.
yesterday_retrospective — Aggregator index history for Europe (last: 7/30) and Asia (last: 7/28-7/29) lags the US feed; Friday's regional moves verified via press (CNBC, Reuters, Irish Times) with citations instead of computed from history.
crypto_landscape — ETH-USD BUY dispatch failed: Portfolio Manager returned HTTP 400 'Impossible de recuperer le prix de ETH-USD' on two attempts. Idea published with portfolio_target; todays_moves records dispatched:false and the failure reason.
portfolio_reality_check — hit_rate_last_30d_pct computed over the 13-day post-reset window (portfolios reset 2026-07-19), not a full 30 days. Several EU positions show price_estimated:true (Saturday, no live prices — API fell back to average cost).
forex_rebalancing — EUR cross histories end 2026-07-30 for EURJPY/EURGBP/EURCHF (EURUSD current to 7/31); Friday's FX closes partially outside the feed. Prediction-market coverage of rate decisions was thin (no live Fed Sept contract), so CME FedWatch via Reuters is the pricing anchor.
GeneralMarket Pulse 3 minFriday's tape was a narrow mega-cap win: the Nasdaq rose 1.00% and the S&P 500 0.70% as Amazon's +15.3% earnings reaction outmuscled Apple's -7.4%, while decliners outnumbered advancers 1.3…
MARKET PULSE
Friday's tape was a narrow mega-cap win: the Nasdaq rose 1.00% and the S&P 500 0.70% as Amazon's +15.3% earnings reaction outmuscled Apple's -7.4%, while decliners outnumbered advancers 1.3-to-1 and the Russell 2000 fell 0.50%. The cross-current that matters into next week is rates: the 10-year backed up 4bp to 4.66% (an 18-month high) and the 2-year 5.4bp to 4.28% as three Fed dissenters called for immediate hikes, yet CME FedWatch September-hike odds sit at 65%, down from 82% a week ago — the market wants data, not rhetoric. Friday's July jobs report (consensus +91k, unemployment 4.3%) is the single print that can settle that repricing; a hot number reopens the hike path that knocked the Nasdaq down 3.2% in July.
• Cut gross equity exposure to ~60%: trim highest-beta AI-infra names first (MPWR/INTC-type beta), keep cash-generative mega-caps
• Buy 3-month SPY put spreads ~5% OTM sized to 2% of portfolio NAV — cheap while VIX sits at 15.99
• Rotate 10% into TLT: the curve is +47bp and 10-year yields are at 18-month highs — the recession/hike-overshoot hedge
• Take GLD to a full 10% hedge sleeve — record official-sector demand makes it the cleanest war + policy hedge
AIZero of four triggers are fired — VIX 15.99 in a 76-session contango (no backwardation since the April 7 episode), HY OAS 2.84%, the curve +47bp and the S&P 2.3% off its record — so the playbook stays staged, not deployed. The two risks that could flip it fastest are named in today's Top 5: a Hormuz re-closure over the weekend (oil gap → inflation → hike repricing) and Friday's jobs report blowing through the +91k consensus (September-hike odds back toward 80%). The first mechanical trigger to watch is VIX > 25; until it fires, hedges are a shopping list, not a position.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 5 minThe last session of July was a tale of two tapes: Asia staged a historic relief rally — KOSPI +17.9%, its best day ever, after a -17% three-day rout — while the US ground out a narrow, mega…
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
The last session of July was a tale of two tapes: Asia staged a historic relief rally — KOSPI +17.9%, its best day ever, after a -17% three-day rout — while the US ground out a narrow, mega-cap-led gain (S&P 500 +0.70%, Russell 2000 -0.50%) as Amazon's blowout outmuscled Apple's miss. The dominant 'why': blockbuster Microsoft and Amazon results re-validated AI capex just as a hawkish-but-divided Fed and still-hot oil kept the rates floor tense — a session where earnings, not macro, sorted winners from losers.
How Yesterday Unfolded
Asia Asia ripped in a violent relief rally: KOSPI +17.91% to 6,595.45 — its best day on record after a -17% three-day rout — on a record ₩7.18tn ($5.2bn) foreign-buying spree that limit-locked SK Hynix (+29.95%) and Samsung Electronics (+26.81%), its biggest-ever single-day gain. Nikkei +4.03% to 64,362 (Advantest +16%, SoftBank +14%, Panasonic +19.5%), Taiex +8%, KOSDAQ +11.6%. The trigger was Microsoft/Amazon's AI-capex validation; automakers lagged as the post-intervention yen squeeze (biggest 2-day yen gain in 2+ years) pressured exporters, and the BoJ held at 1% into the close.
Europe Europe printed a record intraday high (Stoxx 600 at 656.67) then faded to close -0.12% at 649.19 on end-of-month profit-taking ahead of a weekend of possible Iran escalation. Universal Music's record -25.4% crash on H1 results dragged media -5.5%; energy led sectors (+1.2%); Crédit Agricole (+2.9%) and NatWest (+3.2% to a post-2008 high) beat; eurozone flash CPI ticked up to 2.9% (core 2.5%), keeping a 2026 ECB hike in play. The Stoxx 600 still closed July with weekly and monthly gains, +11% YTD.
US The US opened strong on Amazon (+15.3%; AWS +37%, fastest in 18 quarters) and Microsoft (+3% after Thursday's +15%, its best day since 2008), faded as Apple sank -7.35% on weak services/China revenue and lackluster guidance, then re-closed near highs: S&P 500 +0.70% to 7,489.72, Nasdaq +1.00%, Dow +0.53%. But decliners beat advancers 1.3-to-1 and the Russell 2000 fell -0.50% — a narrow, mega-cap-led tape on the year's heaviest volume (20.6bn shares). The 2-year yield rose 5.4bp to 4.28% as three Fed hike-dissenters publicly demanded immediate action; September-hike odds ended at 65% per CME FedWatch.
Small caps / broad market (Russell 2000 -0.50%, decliners 1.3:1) → AI-validated mega-cap tech (Nasdaq +1.00%; AMZN +15.3%, MSFT +3%) · Nasdaq +1.00% vs Russell 2000 -0.50%; AMZN +15.3% vs AAPL -7.35% on the same session
Earnings, not macro, sorted winners: proven AI monetization (AWS +37%, Azure +43%) got re-rated while unproven or decelerating AI spend (Apple's services miss, Meta's FCF drop earlier in the week) got sold.
Crude war premium (WTI -0.55% to $84.67 after tagging ~$80.50 intraday) → Energy equities (CVX +2.4% on a record Q2; Stoxx energy +1.2%) · WTI settled -0.55% at $84.67 (-3.8% at intraday lows) while Chevron printed record $12.1bn net income and European energy led sectors
Hormuz traffic recovering to 30-35% of pre-war levels plus a Saudi-led 14-nation Red Sea coalition bled the geopolitical premium out of crude, but record distillate cracks (CVX refining profit +500%) kept energy cash flows bid — money rotated from the commodity to the equities.
Key Drivers
Amazon's blowout Q2 re-rates AI monetization — AWS +37% y/y — fastest in 18 quarters, vs 31% expected — with operating income +43% and ads +26%; shares +15.3% carried the Nasdaq.
Apple's -7% services miss caps the index — Fiscal Q3 revenue beat (iPhone +22%) but services and China disappointed and the outlook was lackluster; Apple was the biggest S&P/Nasdaq decliner.
Divided Fed: three hike-dissenters go public — Three officials who dissented for a hike at Wednesday's hold called Friday for immediate action to hit 2% inflation; 2-year yield +5.4bp to 4.28%; CME FedWatch September-hike odds 65% (82% a week ago).
Hormuz de-escalation tracks multiply even as strikes continue — Tanker traffic recovered to 30-35% of pre-war levels (CBA), Saudi Arabia unveiled a 14-nation Red Sea maritime coalition, and Oman-Iran talks continued — WTI slid toward $80 intraday even after Iran attacked two US-escorted tankers overnight.
Bridge to Today
Into a weekend with US-Iran strikes still live and a land-blockade debate in Washington, watch first whether Asia holds Friday's record chip bid on Monday — then it's all about Friday's US jobs report (consensus +91k), the one print that can move September-hike odds decisively.
Over the next 1-2 weeks, expect follow-through toward $500 as the Street finishes re-modeling Azure at >40% growth: Wednesday's FY26 Q4 was the cleanest AI-monetization proof of the season (revenue $90.0bn vs $87.6bn…
FY26 Q4 (Jul 29): Azure +43% cc, revenue $90.0bn beat, capex below estimatesCommercial RPO +84% to $678bnPost-earnings analyst target raises across the Street (Jul 30-31)
Target
$520.00
Conviction 75%
TradingView's price for MSFT. It is not the last print in this letter.
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. • Information Technology
7.5/10Conviction
$1426.03
▲ +8.20%
Over the next quarter, expect the Street to re-rate MPWR toward the $1,700 Wells Fargo/Oppenheimer targets as the Q3 raise gets modeled: Thursday's Q2 beat (revenue $980.6M vs ~$903M consensus; adjusted EPS $6.50 vs…
Q2 (Jul 30): revenue $980.6M vs $903M est; adj EPS $6.50 vs $5.87Q3 guide $1.14-1.16bn vs $985M consensus — 16-18% above StreetBuyback expanded $500M to $1bn authorization
Target
$1700.00
Conviction 75%
TradingView's price for MPWR. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 1-2 weeks, expect the re-rating to hold above $260 as AWS's acceleration forces wholesale estimate revisions: Q2 AWS grew 37% y/y — fastest in 18 quarters, vs 31% expected — with operating income +43% and…
Q2 (Jul 30): AWS +37% — fastest in 18 quarters; operating income +43%; GAAP EPS $5.75+15.3% Friday close on the year's heaviest volumeQ3 guide: net sales $197-202bn (+9-12%), operating income $22.5-26.5bn
Target
$300.00
Conviction 70%
TradingView's price for AMZN. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next quarter, expect record refining margins and a still-blockaded Hormuz to keep Chevron's estimate-revision cycle pointing up even if crude chops: Friday's Q2 was the best in company history — net income…
Q2 (Jul 31): record NI $12.1bn (~5x y/y); adj EPS $6.06 vs $5.56; revenue $70bn vs $62bnRefining profit +500% y/y to $4.9bn on record cracksOPEC+ output-quota meeting this week
Target
$215.00
Conviction 70%
TradingView's price for CVX. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 1-3 months, expect PWR to grind toward $700 as the market prices the largest backlog in grid and datacenter contracting: Thursday's Q2 was a blowout on every line — revenue +41.1% to $9.56bn (12% above…
Q2 (Jul 30): adj EPS $4.24 vs $3.29 consensus; revenue $9.56bn vs $8.53bnFY26 guidance raised across all metrics: revenue ~$39.5bn (+13%), adj EPS ~$16.70 (+20%)Record total backlog $53.44bn, +49.3% y/y, on grid + datacenter demand
Target
$700.00
Conviction 75%
TradingView's price for PWR. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 2 quarters, expect the re-rating to extend as the new guidance gets modeled: Thursday's H1 was the strongest print of the Erginbilgiç era — underlying operating profit +46% to £2.53bn (vs ~£2.37bn…
H1 (Jul 30): underlying OP +46% to £2.53bn; FY26 OP guide raised to £4.7-4.9bnPower Systems order intake >£4.6bn; power-generation orders +55% on datacenter demandDefence operating margin 21% (from 15.4%); SMR wins in Europe
Target
$17.00
Conviction 75%
TradingView's price for RR.L. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 2 quarters, expect Schneider to keep compounding toward €310 as the upgraded FY26 targets anchor estimates: Thursday's record H1 — revenue €21.2bn (+14% organic), Q2 a record €11.5bn (+17% organic),…
H1 (Jul 30): record revenue €21.2bn +14% organic; Q2 record €11.5bn +17% organicFY26 targets upgraded: adj EBITA +14-19% organic (from +10-15%); margin 19.4-19.7%Datacenter growth triple-digit in Q2; North America +23% organic
Target
$310.00
Conviction 75%
TradingView's price for SU.PA. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next quarter, expect ACA to re-test and hold its 52-week high (~€19.8) as record revenue meets a still-cheap multiple: Friday's Q2 beat — record revenue €7.36bn (+7.7%), net income €2.05bn (+1.4% pro forma, vs…
Q2 (Jul 31): record revenue €7.36bn +7.7%; NI €2.05bn beat vs ~€1.9bn consensusShares +3.3% to €19.41, near the €19.79 52-week highLCL retail NII recovery continues; Italian retail growing
Target
$22.00
Conviction 65%
TradingView's price for ACA.PA. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 2 quarters, expect NatWest's highest-since-2008 re-rating to keep grinding while the buyback machine runs: Friday's H1 beat — operating profit before tax £4.3bn, better than expected, with full-year…
H1 (Jul 31): operating PBT £4.3bn beat; FY26 outlook upgradedBuybacks brought forward; weekly buyback notices already running52-week high close 705.8p (+3.2%) on ~2x average volume; highest since 2008
Target
$7.60
Conviction 65%
TradingView's price for NWG.L. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 2 minPYPD BUY · STXS BUY
PENNY PLAYS
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
PYPD=
PolyPid Ltd.
7
+5.15%
STXS=
Stereotaxis, Inc.
6
-5.26%
PYPDPENNYBUY🔥 5-issue streak=
PolyPid Ltd. • Healthcare
7/10Conviction
$4.29
▲ +5.15%
Over the next 4 months into the November 28 PDUFA, expect PYPD to stair-step toward $7 as the D-PLEX100 approval path de-risks: the FDA accepted the NDA with Priority Review on Jul 29 — a quarter earlier than the…
Narrative
2/2
Catalyst
2/2
Balance sheet
1/2
Price suppression
1/2
Institutional
0/1
Social
1/1
FDA NDA acceptance + Priority Review granted Jul 29, 2026 — no filing issues identifiedPDUFA target action date: November 28, 2026$15m Azurity milestone triggered (completes $30m upfront/near-term)
Target
$7.00
PYPD between stop and target4.29
1.57
Stop on the left, target on the right. Red and green mark those ends only. The tick is the last price.
TradingView's price for PYPD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 2 quarters, expect STXS to re-rate toward $3.50 if the Robocath integration shows up in the August 11 Q2 print: the acquisition closed July 7 ($20m upfront in cash+stock, up to $25m more in earnouts) and…
Narrative
1/2
Catalyst
2/2
Balance sheet
1/2
Price suppression
2/2
Institutional
0/1
Social
0/1
Q2 2026 earnings August 11 — first combined-company print and synergy guidanceRobocath acquisition closed Jul 7, 2026 ($20m upfront + up to $25m earnout) — integration milestones through H2Any large-cap surgical-robotics read-across lifting the category
Target
$3.50
STXS between stop and target1.26
0.73.5
Stop on the left, target on the right. Red and green mark those ends only. The tick is the last price.
TradingView's price for STXS. It is not the last print in this letter.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minInstitutional money is rotating within crypto, not leaving it: Aug 1 flow data shows BTC ETFs bleeding 949 BTC ($109.8M, ARK-led) while ETH ETFs took in 8,183 ETH (+$29.8M, BlackRock ETHA-l…
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Institutional money is rotating within crypto, not leaving it: Aug 1 flow data shows BTC ETFs bleeding 949 BTC ($109.8M, ARK-led) while ETH ETFs took in 8,183 ETH (+$29.8M, BlackRock ETHA-led) — the third week in 2026 ether products have beaten bitcoin funds, as staking yield beats digital-gold inertia. Price action stays hostage to the war: BTC slid to $63,043 as Hormuz escalation lifted the dollar and yields, with $59k the next technical floor if $62k breaks.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC
Bitcoin
5
-1.90%
ETH
Ethereum
6
-1.92%
BTCHOLD🔥 25-issue streak
Bitcoin
5/10Conviction
$63043.00
▼ -1.90%
Into next week, expect BTC to keep trading as a war thermometer rather than a monetary asset: Friday's slide to $63,043 (intraday low $62,466) tracked the Hormuz escalation — two US-escorted tankers attacked, DXY back…
Weekend US-Iran headlines: land-blockade decision and Hormuz traffic levelBTC-ETF daily flows after the -949 BTC ($109.8M) Aug 1 printTechnical: $62,000 support vs $59,000 measured target on a break
Conviction 50%
TradingView's price for BTC. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 2-4 weeks, expect ETH to keep outperforming BTC on the flow channel even if the war caps absolute upside: Aug 1 saw the third 2026 week of ETH-ETF inflows beating BTC ($29.8M vs -$109.8M), BlackRock's ETHA…
Aug 1 flows: ETH ETFs +8,183 ETH (+$29.8M) vs BTC -949 BTC (-$109.8M)Staking-enabled ETF approvals — the single biggest structural variable (SEC pipeline)ETHA holdings now >3.02M ETH; weekly pattern 3-for-3 in 2026
Conviction 60%
TradingView's price for ETH. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 4 minCopper is the standout long into next week — $24/t LME backwardation, Codelco's abandoned output target and a >10,000t weekly inventory draw put a new record in play — while gold defends $4…
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Copper is the standout long into next week — $24/t LME backwardation, Codelco's abandoned output target and a >10,000t weekly inventory draw put a new record in play — while gold defends $4,000 on record 289t Q2 central-bank buying, and crude goes genuinely two-sided into OPEC+ as Hormuz reopens but US-Iran strikes continue.
Gold down and oil down together on Friday is the signature of war-premium deflation, not risk-off: the dollar firmed (DXY back above 100) as Hormuz traffic…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
GC=F
Gold
7
-1.19%
HG=F
Copper
7.5
+2.31%
CL=F
WTI Crude
5
-0.55%
SI=F
Silver
5
-0.12%
GoldPRECIOUS METALBUY🔥 25-issue streak
GC=F
7/10Conviction
$4049.10
▼ -1.19%
Into Friday's jobs print, expect gold to keep defending the $4,000 floor and re-challenge $4,100 if payrolls soften: Thursday's WGC Gold Demand Trends showed record Q2 central-bank buying of 289t (+74% y/y — Poland 51t,…
WGC Q2 Gold Demand Trends (Jul 30): record 289t central-bank buying, +74% y/y; Q1 revised down to 57tGold overtakes US Treasuries as largest global reserve asset — 27% vs 22%US jobs report Aug 7: soft print re-opens the easing tail gold trades best
Conviction 70%
TradingView's price for GC=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
Expect another run at the June record ($6.60-6.70/lb) because physical tightness — not macro sentiment — now drives the tape: LME nearby flipped into ~$24/t backwardation, exchange stocks fell over 10,000t this week to…
LME backwardation ~$24/t; LME stocks -10,000t w/w to 262,300t; ShFE <70,000t (lowest since Feb 2024)Codelco scraps 1.7Mt five-year target; 2026 output guided ≤1.357Mt on Chile storm disruptionIEA: sulphuric-acid shortage threatens more than one-seventh of global copper output
Conviction 75%
TradingView's price for HG=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
The next two weeks decide which tape wins — Friday's de-escalation tracks (Hormuz traffic at 30-35% of pre-war per CBA, Saudi's 14-nation Red Sea coalition, Oman-Iran talks) or the overnight escalation (two US-escorted…
OPEC+ output-quota meeting this weekEIA weekly inventories (Aug 5) after the -7.167M barrel drawAny strike on Gulf export infrastructure forces a $95-100 retest (Kotak); Goldman sees Brent $120 if disruption persists
Conviction 50%
TradingView's price for CL=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
Silver keeps trading as gold's high-beta tail — expect it to follow, not lead, into the jobs print: it slipped with gold Friday (-0.1% to $57.59) while the structural story of the week (record official-sector buying,…
US jobs report Aug 7 — the next real-rate catalyst for both metalsGold/silver ratio still historically elevated — the catch-up trade arms if the metals bid resumes
Conviction 50%
TradingView's price for SI=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
Yen intervention + BoJ normalization whipsaws crowded carry trades↑
High
Medium
Escalating
4
AI mega-cap earnings dispersion / capex scrutiny↓
Medium
High
Stable
5
Credit complacency: HY spreads at 2.84% into a hiking cycle and a live warNEW
Low
High
New
Watch: OPEC+ output-quota meeting this week — a supply response signals how worried producers are
Stocks
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 5 min30d hit rate 56%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Euro Only
-1.87%
Anti-Fragile
+0.00%
Penny Plays
-5.20%
Trend Follow
+0.00%
Commodities
+0.00%
Crypto
+0.00%
Named holdings. 18 smaller positions (7.09%) are off this picture.
Tech US
Performance
Total Value
$98264.32
Cash
$59511.16
P&L
$-1735.68 (-1.74%)
Realized P&L
$-2664.87
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
MSFT
2.56
pending
Buy
MPWR
0.8346
pending
Buy
AMZN
4.38
pending
Buy
CVX
6.19
pending
Buy
PWR
1.78
pending
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$8461.80
-0.7%
XOM ×120
$18715.29
+2.1%
UNH ×8.49
$3519.33
-2.7%
INTC ×14.08
$1270.08
-79.5%
MSFT ×9.35
$4345.74
+18.8%
SBUX ×11.63
$1223.66
-1.3%
CBRE ×8.29
$1217.26
-1.8%
Track Record
7 On Track · 5 Lagging · 1 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
ASML (2026-07-19)
7/10
-5.5%
Lagging
GOOGL (2026-07-20)
7/10
-5.2%
Lagging
INTC (2026-07-24)
7.5/10
-2.3%
Lagging
META (2026-07-28)
6.5/10
-9.2%
Stopped Out
MSFT (2026-07-28)
6.5/10
+18.1%
On Track
TSM (2026-07-19)
7/10
+1.5%
On Track
UNH (2026-07-19)
6.5/10
-2.7%
Lagging
XOM (2026-07-19)
8/10
+5.5%
On Track
INTC (2026-07-30)
7.5/10
-1.0%
Lagging
SBUX (2026-07-30)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
CBRE (2026-07-30)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
AMZN (2026-07-31)
8/10
+0.0%
On Track
PWR (2026-07-31)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
Euro Only
Performance
Total Value
$98129.72
Cash
$67308.55
P&L
$-1870.28 (-1.87%)
Realized P&L
$-1870.28
TWR
-1.87%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
-1.87%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions31%
Cash69%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
RR.L
92.01
pending
Buy
SU.PA
4.73
pending
Buy
ACA.PA
69.35
pending
Buy
NWG.L
191
pending
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TTE.PA ×283
$20739.46
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
—
KER.PA ×5.3
$1553.28
—
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
—
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
—
GLE.PA ×17.29
$1402.26
—
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
—
Track Record
9 On Track · 1 Lagging · 1 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
ASML.AS (2026-07-19)
7/10
-9.7%
Stopped Out
TTE.PA (2026-07-19)
7.5/10
+8.4%
On Track
UNA.AS (2026-07-29)
7/10
-3.1%
Lagging
KER.PA (2026-07-30)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
RR.L (2026-07-30)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
VIE.PA (2026-07-30)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
GLE.PA (2026-07-30)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
MNDI.L (2026-07-30)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
SU.PA (2026-07-31)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
UBSG.SW (2026-07-31)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
GSK.L (2026-07-31)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$100000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Cash100%
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Penny Plays
Performance
Total Value
$94797.92
Cash
$88032.07
P&L
$-5202.08 (-5.20%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
TWR
-4.58%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
-4.58%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions7%
Cash93%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
PYPD
410
pending
Buy
STXS
1397
pending
Sell
GOSS
18578
pending
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578
$3148.95
-16.2%
PYPD ×449
$1927.60
+5.1%
STXS ×1341
$1689.31
-6.0%
Track Record
1 On Track · 1 Lagging · 3 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
OTLK (2026-07-19)
7/10
-25.2%
Stopped Out
NRXP (2026-07-28)
6.5/10
-11.9%
Stopped Out
GOSS (2026-07-28)
6/10
-17.4%
Stopped Out
PYPD (2026-07-30)
6/10
+5.2%
On Track
STXS (2026-07-30)
7/10
-5.3%
Lagging
Trend Follow
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$100000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Cash100%
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Commodities
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$80073.18
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions20%
Cash80%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
GLD
4.31
pending
Buy
CPER
40.71
pending
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×128
$16625.19
—
GLD ×4.48
$1667.49
—
CPER ×42.61
$1634.15
—
Track Record
2 On Track · 1 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
CL=F (2026-07-19)
8/10
+4.0%
On Track
GC=F (2026-07-27)
6.5/10
-1.0%
Lagging
HG=F (2026-07-30)
6.5/10
+2.3%
On Track
Crypto
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$78377.60
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions22%
Cash78%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
ETH-USD
0.8392
—
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.1970
$12825.04
—
ETH-USD ×4.62
$8797.36
—
Track Record
2 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BTC (2026-07-19)
7/10
-2.5%
Lagging
ETH (2026-07-20)
6.5/10
-0.0%
Lagging
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +55.88%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Penny-stock risk: very low-priced, thinly traded securities can be illiquid, volatile and easy to manipulate. Spreads can be wide, exits may be impossible at the quoted price, and you can lose your entire investment. Ideas in this category are diligence starting points, not a buy list.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.