|
|
⚠ Data quality: DEGRADED
market_pulse — Zurich pre-US-cash open: equity/index/^VIX marks are Monday 2026-08-17 settles; GC=F/CL=F/BTC already show Tuesday 2026-08-18 prints. ^TNX Monday close null from aggregator — published Monday open 4.694 (Friday settle was 4.696).
yesterday_retrospective — Several EU index history rows incomplete through Monday; Stoxx/DAX/CAC/FTSE Monday moves taken from Reuters/MarketScreener closes (Stoxx 600 656.41 −0.22%).
eu_equity_ideas — eu_fundamentals_gap: /fundamentals for TTE.PA thin; idea published on price + web oil catalyst. Stooq live /price blocked for many EU tickers — used EODHD close 75.93 for TTE.PA.
penny_plays — No buy-tier (≥6/10) cleared anti-late-mover + freshness bar: CAPR PDUFA Aug 22 but already >$5 after +77% two-session rip; INO watchlist-only after prior spike. Honest zero buy-tier day.
commodities_outlook — CL=F Tuesday early print $85.18 vs Monday WTI settle ~$84.50–85.0 web quotes — within 2%; USO Monday close $130.29 used for ETF proxy.
crypto_landscape — ETF flow figures are week-of-Aug-10–14 prints ($390M BTC outflow); no same-day Monday flow table in aggregator — held on that institutional signal.
risk_cover_playbook — SPY history missing Monday row; S&P drawdown computed from ^GSPC Fri high 7785.76 → Mon 7745.06. TLT history sparse into Monday for stock-bond corr (used available overlapping sessions).
portfolio_reality_check — INTC /positions avg_price still ~$439 vs fill economics ~$86–100 (known PM bug); holdings show API fields verbatim. EURO/Commodities/Crypto/Penny books largely price_estimated. GOSS SELL still PENDING from Aug 17 — not re-queued.
forex_rebalancing — Squawk-alert endpoint not used (optional); Manifold Sep cut odds ~2.9% used for Fed pricing gap.
|
|
THE BOTTOM LINE
|
RISK-ON
Hormuz risk is back in the driver’s seat — WTI above $85 and Brent near $91 after the US–Iran ceasefire window closed, with Reddit’s S&P inclusion and Home Depot’s comps print as today’s equity binaries.
Today's Top Picks
USO
· commodities_outlook — Iran signals fully offensive posture; US rules out ceasefire extension (Aug 17–18)
RDDT
· us_equity_ideas — S&P 500 inclusion effective before open Tuesday Aug 18 (replaces AVB)
XOM
· us_equity_ideas — WTI +4% vs Friday into $85+ as Iran offensive rhetoric hits (Aug 17–18)
TTE.PA
· eu_equity_ideas — Brent ~$91 / WTI >$85 on Iran offensive posture and Hormuz traffic collapse (Aug 17–18)
GLD
· commodities_outlook — Spot gold ~$4,424–4,450 into Tuesday as rate-hike odds ease
|
Biggest Risk
Iran/Hormuz oil premium persists (WTI >$85)
Probability: High • Impact: High
|
|
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $713992.27
Blended P&L: +2.37% • 30d Hit Rate: +68.40%
|
|
|
|
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Monday’s selloff was a geopolitics-and-duration tape: the S&P 500 fell 0.52% to 7,745.06 as the US–Iran ceasefire window expired, Brent jumped toward $91, and the 30-year yield printed 5.29% — its highest since 2007 — even as Empire State manufacturing surprised at 20.6.
How Yesterday Unfolded
Asia
Asia led with a selective risk-on: Nikkei +0.74% to 69,220.25 and Hang Seng +1.34% to 25,453.23 on AI/memory strength, while South Korea stayed closed for a Liberation Day substitute holiday — so the later US oil/yield shock did not fully recirculate into Asia that session.
Europe
Europe finished a fourth down session (Stoxx 600 −0.22% to 656.41) as luxury lagged (Kering/LVMH) while energy outperformed on the Hormuz premium — a rotation, not a broad bid.
US
US closed lower across the board (S&P −0.52%, Nasdaq −0.32%, Dow −0.51%) as oil and long yields spiked on the expired US–Iran MoU; chips/memory still outperformed underneath the soft headline.
Capital Rotation
Long-duration / staples (XLP soft; consumer defensives) → Energy (XLE +1.08% Mon to 62.58)
· XLE +1.08% on 2026-08-17 vs XLF −1.00% and XLC −1.89%; WTI futures jumped toward mid-$84s
Expired ceasefire + thin Hormuz traffic re-priced the energy complex while rate-sensitive financials and communication services faded with the long-end yield spike.
Index beta / broad S&P → AI hardware / memory (chips outperformed a down tape)
· XLK +0.16% to 190.32 while S&P −0.52%; memory/chip names led per session wrap
Institutional AI-capex demand kept absorbing dips even as the macro tape priced oil-inflation and duration stress.
Key Drivers
US–Iran ceasefire MoU expired; Iran signals offensive posture
— Negotiations stalled and Iran ruled out extending the memorandum, sending Brent toward $91 and WTI up ~2.6% on supply-route risk through Hormuz.
30-year Treasury yield to 5.29% (highest since 2007)
— Long-end yields jumped alongside oil, tightening financial conditions into a week of retail earnings and Wednesday’s FOMC minutes.
Empire State Manufacturing Index 20.6 vs ~11–12 expected
— NY Fed’s August print hit a four-year high, confirming regional factory strength that the equity tape largely ignored under the oil/yield shock.
Hormuz tanker traffic still collapsed
— Kpler showed only five commodity vessels Saturday and zero Sunday vs 31 the prior weekend — the physical chokepoint risk that kept oil bid into Tuesday.
Bridge to Today
Tuesday’s open hinges on Reddit’s S&P 500 inclusion flow and Home Depot’s pre-bell comps print — and whether oil stays above $85 as FOMC minutes loom Wednesday.
|
|
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Oil extends the Hormuz premium with WTI futures at $85.18 and Brent near $91 as Iran shifts rhetoric to an offensive posture; gold stays bid near $4,450 as a parallel hedge.
Cross-Commodity Macro Linkage
Oil and gold rising together while the dollar sits near 99.6 and 10Y breakevens (T10YIE) print 2.28% is a classic geopolitical-premium stack: if Hormuz traffic stays near zero into Wednesday’s FOMC minutes, expect energy to keep lifting nominal yields even as real-rate relief still supports bullion.
|
WTI Crude (USO proxy)
ENERGY BUY 🔥 16-issue streak
USO
|
$130.29
▲ +2.91%
|
Over the next few sessions, treat Hormuz as a live call option on supply: Kpler’s weekend traffic collapse (5/0 vs 31) plus Iran’s offensive-posture rhetoric already lifted USO +2.9% Monday to $130.29, and Brent still hovering near $91 keeps the skew higher until tanker counts normalize. Add on dips while WTI holds above $82.
⚡ Iran signals fully offensive posture; US rules out ceasefire extension (Aug 17–18) ⚡ Kpler Hormuz transits: 5 Sat / 0 Sun vs 31 prior weekend ⚡ Brent ~$91.14 Tuesday; WTI futures $85.18
Invalidation: WTI sustains closes below $78 for a full week while Hormuz daily transits normalize above ~20.
|
|
Gold
PRECIOUS METAL BUY 🔥 16-issue streak
GLD
|
$405.49
▲ +1.00%
|
Into FOMC minutes, keep gold as the dual hedge: GLD +1.0% Monday to $405.49 while GC=F holds ~$4,450 as hike odds stay suppressed (Manifold Sep cut only ~3%) yet geopolitics refuse to clear — that combination historically sustains the bullion bid even when oil steals the headline.
⚡ Spot gold ~$4,424–4,450 into Tuesday as rate-hike odds ease ⚡ Geopolitical safe-haven bid alongside oil (same session) ⚡ July FOMC minutes due Wednesday
Invalidation: GC=F sustains below $4,300 on a weekly close while real yields re-accelerate higher.
|
|
|
MARKET PULSE
|
S&P 500
7745.06
▼ -0.52%
|
NASDAQ
26644.91
▼ -0.32%
|
Dow Jones
53459.78
▼ -0.51%
|
Russell 2K
3057.54
▼ -0.35%
|
VIX
15.19
▲ +6.60%
|
EUR/USD
1.1574
▼ -0.16%
|
Gold
4449.5
▼ -0.08%
|
Oil (WTI)
85.18
▲ +4.17%
|
Bitcoin
64094
▲ +0.89%
|
10Y Yield
4.694
▼ -0.04%
|
Geopolitical oil is back in charge: WTI futures print $85.18 (+4.2% vs Friday’s $81.77) while the S&P sits at 7,745 (−0.52% Monday) after the US–Iran ceasefire window closed. VIX jumped to 15.19 (+6.6%) even as gold holds $4,449 — energy inflation premium without a clean risk-off collapse. Watch Home Depot’s pre-open comps and Reddit’s Tuesday S&P inclusion flow before Wednesday’s July FOMC minutes decide whether the long-end yield spike sticks.
|
|
US EQUITY IDEAS
|
RDDT
GROWTH BUY 🔥 3-issue streak
Reddit, Inc. • Communication Services
|
$164.50
▼ -7.63%
|
Into Tuesday’s open, expect forced index buying to dominate the tape: S&P DJI’s Aug 18 inclusion replaces AvalonBay with ~$2.9B estimated passive demand, and that mechanical bid is the primary signal (score 7.5 on one strong freshness catalyst — inclusion day itself — even after Monday’s −7.6% fade from Friday’s $178 announcement spike). Size for flow, not for a clean fundamental re-rating.
⚡ S&P 500 inclusion effective before open Tuesday Aug 18 (replaces AVB) ⚡ Monday still closed $164.50 after Friday’s +12% inclusion pop — flow not finished ⚡ Only Meta remains a pure social peer inside the S&P 500
|
Mkt Cap
N/A
| |
P/E
N/A
| |
Beta
N/A
| |
Target
$190.00
| |
Conviction
7.5/10
|
Invalidation: Closes below $150 on a weekly basis after the inclusion week, signaling flow exhaustion.
|
|
HD
VALUE BUY 🔥 2-issue streak
The Home Depot, Inc. • Consumer Discretionary
|
$337.88
▼ -0.29%
|
Over today’s print and the next two sessions, the stock is a clean consumer-stress test: Street clusters near ~$4.73 EPS / ~$47B sales with the real tell on comps vs Q1’s +0.6%, and a hold-or-better comps print into soft July retail sales would re-rate the housing-adjacent complex (conviction 7.0 — one strong dated catalyst: Q2 earnings BMO Aug 18).
⚡ Q2 FY2026 earnings before open Tuesday Aug 18; call 9:00 a.m. ET ⚡ Consensus ~$4.73 adj. EPS / ~$47B revenue; comps vs +0.6% Q1 is the line that matters ⚡ July retail sales −0.6% still framing the consumer debate into this print
|
Mkt Cap
N/A
| |
P/E
N/A
| |
Beta
N/A
| |
Target
$365.00
| |
Conviction
7/10
|
Invalidation: Negative Q2 comps with guidance cut below the flat-to-+2% FY comps band.
|
|
XOM
COMMODITY BUY
Exxon Mobil Corporation • Energy
|
$161.46
▲ +0.00%
|
Into the next week of Hormuz headlines, expect integrated majors to keep capturing the oil premium: WTI already >$85 and Brent ~$91, and Monday’s geopolitical re-pricing plus an Aug 18 contract-award headline give two independent confirms (geopolitical price + company news) for a 7.5 conviction add in energy beta the Tech book already underweights vs XLE’s leadership.
⚡ WTI +4% vs Friday into $85+ as Iran offensive rhetoric hits (Aug 17–18) ⚡ ExxonMobil awards ~$1.1B contracts headline Aug 18 ⚡ XLE led Monday sector tape while broad indices fell
|
Mkt Cap
N/A
| |
P/E
N/A
| |
Beta
N/A
| |
Target
$175.00
| |
Conviction
7.5/10
|
Invalidation: WTI closes back below $78 with a confirmed Hormuz traffic normalization above ~20 vessels/day.
|
|
|
EU EQUITY IDEAS
|
TTE.PA
COMMODITY BUY 🔥 2-issue streak
TotalEnergies SE • Energy
|
$75.93
▲ +0.69%
|
Over the next several sessions, expect TTE.PA to keep tracking the Hormuz oil premium: Monday’s close at €75.93 already reflects higher liquids realizations, and with Brent near $91 plus stalled ceasefire talks the integrated cash-flow lever stays the cleanest European expression of the same energy rotation leading XLE (conviction 7.5 — one strong freshness catalyst: live geopolitical oil spike).
⚡ Brent ~$91 / WTI >$85 on Iran offensive posture and Hormuz traffic collapse (Aug 17–18) ⚡ European energy led Monday while Stoxx 600 fell a fourth session ⚡ Prior 2Q26 already showed $6.0B adjusted net income capturing Middle East price spike
|
Mkt Cap
N/A
| |
P/E
N/A
| |
Beta
N/A
| |
Target
$82.00
| |
Conviction
7.5/10
|
Invalidation: Brent sustains below $80 for two weeks with Hormuz transit counts normalized.
|
|
|
PENNY PLAYS
|
INO
PENNY WATCH 🔥 2-issue streak
Inovio Pharmaceuticals • Health Care
|
$1.09
▲ +0.00%
|
Scores 5.0/10 as watchlist-only: narrative and suppression vs prior highs are real, but catalyst proximity and balance-sheet clarity are still thin and the stock already ripped hard into mid-August — this is not a ground-floor asymmetric entry. Watching for a dated FDA/clinical catalyst before any buy-tier upgrade.
⚡ Prior mid-August volume spike still digesting (price $1.09 as of Aug 14 history) ⚡ Need a fresh dated clinical/regulatory event to clear ≥6/10
|
Mkt Cap
N/A
| |
P/E
N/A
| |
Beta
N/A
| |
Target
$1.60
| |
Conviction
5/10
|
Invalidation: No dated clinical/regulatory catalyst published within 30 days, or dilutive financing below $0.80.
|
|
|
FOREX REBALANCING RADAR
Base currency: EUR — every stance below is relative to holding this currency's cash instead of EUR.
| Currency (vs EUR) |
Short-term |
Medium-term |
Long-term |
| USD |
NEUTRAL (1) |
SEEK (3) |
SEEK (4) |
|
Expect EUR vs USD to chop near 1.157 as soft US demand (retail −0.6%) fights an oil-led nominal-yield spike — Manifold prices only ~2.9% odds of a Sep cut, so the prior avoid tilt is no longer clean.
· vs. yesterday: reverses Monday avoid (−3) to neutral/+1 after oil/yield shock re-opens USD support
|
| JPY 🔥19 |
SEEK (3) |
SEEK (4) |
NEUTRAL (1) |
|
Prefer JPY over EUR into risk-off oil shocks while EURJPY still sits ~184 — yen often catches a defensive bid when energy geopolitics dominate.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces seek stance
|
| GBP 🔥44 |
SEEK (2) |
NEUTRAL (0) |
NEUTRAL (1) |
|
Slight prefer GBP vs EUR while EURGBP holds ~0.855 and UK policy remains relatively sticky vs ECB easing expectations.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces seek but score trimmed on oil-driven risk
|
| CHF 🔥19 |
NEUTRAL (0) |
NEUTRAL (0) |
SEEK (2) |
|
EURCHF ~0.941 leaves little edge — SNB still data-dependent and most recent guidance is not a fresh directional signal inside 30 days worth chasing.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces neutral short-term
|
| NOK 🔥10 |
SEEK (6) |
SEEK (5) |
NEUTRAL (1) |
|
Oil-linked NOK should outperform EUR while Brent holds near $91 — EURNOK eased toward 10.93 as the energy premium rebuilt.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces seek; conviction up with oil
|
Suggested rebalancing actions
INCREASE NOK vs EUR — Oil premium rebuilding with Brent ~$91 — NOK is the cleanest EUR-cash tilt among oil exporters today.
INCREASE JPY vs EUR — Small defensive JPY add vs EUR while geopolitics and EURJPY ~184 keep intervention/risk-off optionality live.
HOLD USD vs EUR — Stop actively underweighting USD vs EUR — oil/yield shock neutralized the soft-landing avoid case for now.
|
|
TOP 5 RISKS RIGHT NOW
|
#1 — Iran/Hormuz oil premium persists (WTI >$85)
🔥 15
Escalating
Probability: HIGH
• Impact: HIGH
• Horizon: 1-8 weeks
Watch: Daily Hormuz transit counts (Kpler); Brent holding above $90 into Wed FOMC minutes; Any confirmed US–Iran talk restart
|
|
#2 — Long-end yields stick near multi-decade highs (30Y ~5.29%)
New
Probability: MEDIUM
• Impact: HIGH
• Horizon: 2-12 weeks
Watch: Wednesday July FOMC minutes tone on inflation/oil; 10Y/30Y auction demand this week; Whether VIX stays >15 with yields elevated
|
|
#3 — US consumer fatigue — HD today / WMT Thursday test
🔥 3
Escalating
Probability: MEDIUM
• Impact: HIGH
• Horizon: 1-4 weeks
Watch: Home Depot Q2 comps vs +0.6% (Aug 18 BMO); Walmart FY27 Q2 print Aug 20; UMich sentiment follow-through after 51.0
|
|
#4 — Credit complacency / HY OAS still ~2.71
🔥 15
Stable
Probability: MEDIUM
• Impact: MEDIUM
• Horizon: 1-3 months
Watch: BAMLH0A0HYM2 moving above 3.5; HY-IG differential (now ~1.92) widening further; Any HY ETF outflow spike on oil/yield days
|
|
#5 — Retail earnings disappointment cluster (HD/WMT week)
New
Probability: MEDIUM
• Impact: MEDIUM
• Horizon: this week
Watch: HD Aug 18 comps/guidance; WMT Aug 20 EPS vs $0.72–0.74 guide band; Post-print relative performance of XLY vs SPX
|
|
|
CRASH / BEAR-MARKET COVER PLAYBOOK
Regime: RISK-ON
| VIX |
15.19 / 25 |
Not Triggered
|
| 10Y-2Y spread |
0.51 / -0.2 |
Not Triggered
|
| HY OAS (BAMLH0A0HYM2) |
2.71 / 5 |
Not Triggered
|
| S&P drawdown from window high |
-0.52 / -10 |
Not Triggered
|
If triggered today — do this now
• Trim high-beta inclusion/AI names (RDDT-style) to fund hedges
• Add SPY put spreads / VIXY and raise cash toward 15%
• Keep USO/GLD as oil-shock and real-rate hedges rather than cutting both
Hedge instruments: GLD, TLT, SH, VIXY
• Target cash: 15%
0/4 hard triggers fired (VIX 15.19, curve +51bp, HY OAS 2.71, SPX only −0.5% from Friday’s window high) so regime stays risk-on, but 3 of 9 populated internals are watch (stock-bond corr +0.42, gold/copper elevated, VIX up to 15.2). That matches a market still calm on the hard triggers with Hormuz/long-end cracks underneath — keep the crash checklist ready through HD/WMT and Wednesday’s minutes.
|
|
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Institutional pipes stayed in risk-off mode after last week’s ~$390M spot Bitcoin ETF outflow (largest in six weeks) and a snapped ETH ETF inflow streak; price stabilized near $64k/$1.89k but flows have not flipped back to green.
Institutional Moves
US spot Bitcoin ETF complex (Fidelity FBTC / BlackRock IBIT)
Week of Aug 10–14 saw ~$389.7M net outflows, led by Fidelity FBTC (~$153M) with IBIT also redeeming — reversing the prior week’s ~$854M inflow.
Adoption Landscape
[United States] Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a thin ~$2.26M net outflow, ending a five-week inflow streak — confirmation that the institutional bid cooled across both majors, not just BTC.
[United States] Newer SOL/XRP/HYPE spot ETF products still saw small net additions the same week — niche diversification demand while BTC/ETH pipes leaked.
Asset Ideas
|
BTC-USD
HOLD 🔥 42-issue streak
Bitcoin
|
$64094.00
▲ +0.89%
|
Into the next ETF-flow print, stay on HOLD: a bounce to ~$64.1k does not repair a $390M weekly redemption cluster, and adding before multi-day inflow re-acceleration is buying hope against the institutional tape. Wait for flows to flip before sizing up.
⚡ Next daily/weekly spot BTC ETF flow print (watch for re-acceleration) ⚡ FOMC minutes Wed as USD/real-yield swing factor
Invalidation: BTC closes below $60k on a weekly basis.
|
|
ETH-USD
HOLD 🔥 42-issue streak
Ethereum
|
$1892.95
▼ -0.35%
|
Near-term, ETH stays a HOLD while the ETF complex is net flat-to-negative: the five-week inflow streak just broke on a $2.3M outflow, and price is range-bound near $1,893 — need a fresh institutional catalyst before paying up.
⚡ ETH spot ETF flow re-acceleration ⚡ Any dated L2/TVL or ETF-issuer allocation headline this week
Invalidation: ETH closes below $1,700 on a weekly basis.
|
|
|
WHAT'S COMING UP
| 2026-08-18 |
Home Depot Q2 earnings (comps vs +0.6%) before open
· us_equity_ideas
|
| 2026-08-18 |
Reddit joins S&P 500 (forced passive buying)
· us_equity_ideas
|
| 2026-08-19 |
July FOMC meeting minutes released
· risk_top5
|
| 2026-08-20 |
Walmart FY27 Q2 earnings (consumer health check)
· risk_top5
|
|
|
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
|
Tech US
Performance
|
Total Value
$102335.42
|
Cash
$33643.45
|
P&L
$2335.42 (+2.34%)
|
Realized P&L
$-2664.87
|
|
TWR
+2.30%
|
Sharpe
1.03
|
Max DD
-2.39%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
BUY
RDDT
×4.35
• dispatched
Newsletter BUY RDDT: S&P 500 inclusion effective before open Tuesday Aug 18 (replaces AVB)
BUY
HD
×2.07
• dispatched
Newsletter BUY HD: Q2 FY2026 earnings before open Tuesday Aug 18; call 9:00 a.m. ET
BUY
XOM
×4.25
• dispatched
Newsletter BUY XOM: WTI +4% vs Friday into $85+ as Iran offensive rhetoric hits (Aug 17–18)
HOLD
RDDT
×8.54
Already held into inclusion day; Monday −7.6% fade leaves flow thesis intact but watch $150 weekly invalidation.
Current Holdings
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$9021.11
+5.85%
XOM ×124.65
$20126.72
+5.83%
UNH ×8.49
$3359.84
-7.15%
INTC ×14.08
$1457.21
-76.43%
MSFT ×11.91
$5722.17
+18.03%
SBUX ×11.63
$1254.70
+1.20%
CBRE ×8.29
$1226.80
-1.05%
AMZN ×4.38
$1145.22
-3.78%
CVX ×6.05
$1225.46
+2.98%
FRO ×30.23
$1275.17
+7.14%
PLTR ×5.87
$1013.11
-7.48%
MRVL ×13.67
$3203.34
+198.51%
CAT ×1.20
$1057.80
+0.58%
LLY ×1.71
$2024.86
+0.22%
ELF ×11.69
$1095.25
+8.44%
ABNB ×6.53
$1170.28
+18.23%
TWLO ×5.12
$1171.21
+18.33%
BRK-B ×1.78
$888.39
-4.52%
CSCO ×21.70
$2450.37
-6.78%
CRWV ×9.86
$1044.65
+16.91%
AMAT ×4.69
$2508.09
+0.72%
MU ×1.67
$1688.00
+7.68%
RDDT ×12.88
$2119.02
-5.19%
HD ×4.27
$1443.19
-0.15%
Track Record
7 On Track · 3 Lagging
PositionConviction ThenReturn SinceVerdict
RDDT (2026-08-15)
8/10
-7.63%
LAGGING
HD (2026-08-17)
7.5/10
-0.29%
ON TRACK
XOM (2026-08-18)
7.5/10
+0.00%
ON TRACK
MU (2026-08-13)
7/10
+7.68%
ON TRACK
AMAT (2026-08-11)
7.5/10
+0.72%
ON TRACK
MSFT (2026-08-02)
8/10
+18.00%
ON TRACK
MRVL (2026-08-05)
7/10
+198.50%
ON TRACK
UNH (2026-07-19)
7/10
-7.15%
LAGGING
PLTR (2026-08-09)
7/10
-7.48%
LAGGING
INTC (2026-07-30)
7/10
+18.80%
ON TRACK
|
|
Euro Only
Performance
|
Total Value
$116239.42
|
Cash
$49648.89
|
P&L
$16239.42 (+16.24%)
|
Realized P&L
$-1870.28
|
|
TWR
+16.24%
|
Sharpe
2.50
|
Max DD
-1.87%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
BUY
TTE.PA
×13.34
• dispatched
Adding on Hormuz oil premium — Brent near $91 keeps European energy cash flows bid.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded for this book today — every position below is priced at cost/estimate, not a fresh mark.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×2.28
$21594.47
+0.00%
TTE.PA ×309.96
$22786.63
+0.00%
UNA.AS ×48.50
$2832.95
+0.00%
KER.PA ×5.30
$1553.28
+0.00%
RR.L ×101.30
$1460.08
+0.00%
VIE.PA ×48.50
$1430.88
+0.00%
GLE.PA ×17.29
$1402.26
+0.00%
MNDI.L ×157.88
$1402.26
+0.00%
NWG.L ×190.73
$1346.17
+0.00%
ACA.PA ×69.87
$1346.48
+0.00%
PHIA.AS ×59.20
$1346.18
+0.00%
BESI.AS ×6.70
$1240.09
+0.00%
ENR.DE ×8.06
$1215.28
+0.00%
SIE.DE ×8.94
$2245.98
+0.00%
MSLH.L ×673.48
$2310.98
+0.00%
SAP.DE ×5.97
$1076.55
+0.00%
PositionConviction ThenReturn SinceVerdict
TTE.PA (2026-07-19)
7/10
+3.45%
ON TRACK
ASML.AS (2026-08-12)
7.5/10
+0.00%
ON TRACK
ENR.DE (2026-08-06)
6.5/10
+6.50%
ON TRACK
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|
Penny Plays
Performance
|
Total Value
$95417.43
|
Cash
$84510.79
|
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
|
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
|
|
TWR
-4.58%
|
Sharpe
-3.53
|
Max DD
-4.58%
|
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Allocation
|
Today's Moves
SELL
GOSS
×18577.85
• dispatched
• pending
Stop-loss SELL still PENDING from Aug 17 (market-hours queue); not re-submitted today.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded for this book today — every position below is priced at cost/estimate, not a fresh mark.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
GOSS ×18577.85
$3755.55
+0.00%
PYPD ×859.73
$3593.88
+0.00%
STXS ×2738.06
$3557.21
+0.00%
Track Record
1 On Track · 1 Stopped Out
PositionConviction ThenReturn SinceVerdict
PYPD (2026-08-04)
7/10
+13.40%
ON TRACK
GOSS (2026-07-20)
6.5/10
-23.70%
STOPPED OUT
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Anti-Fragile
Performance
|
Total Value
$100000.00
|
Cash
$100000.00
|
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
|
Realized P&L
$0.0000
|
|
TWR
+0.00%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
+0.00%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
|
|
Trend Follow
Performance
|
Total Value
$100000.00
|
Cash
$100000.00
|
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
|
Realized P&L
$0.0000
|
|
TWR
+0.00%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
+0.00%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
|
|
Commodities
Performance
|
Total Value
$100000.00
|
Cash
$61526.80
|
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
|
Realized P&L
$0.0000
|
|
TWR
+0.00%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
+0.00%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
BUY
USO
×9.83
• dispatched
Newsletter BUY USO: Iran signals fully offensive posture; US rules out ceasefire extension (Aug 17–1
BUY
GLD
×3.10
• dispatched
Newsletter BUY GLD: Spot gold ~$4,424–4,450 into Tuesday as rate-hike odds ease
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded for this book today — every position below is priced at cost/estimate, not a fresh mark.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
USO ×170.51
$21992.70
+0.00%
GLD ×30.10
$11738.20
+0.00%
CPER ×83.09
$3235.64
+0.00%
SLV ×26.87
$1506.66
+0.00%
PositionConviction ThenReturn SinceVerdict
USO (2026-08-11)
8/10
+1.08%
ON TRACK
GLD (2026-08-06)
7/10
+4.47%
ON TRACK
|
|
Crypto
Performance
|
Total Value
$100000.00
|
Cash
$69426.36
|
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
|
Realized P&L
$0.0000
|
|
TWR
+0.00%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
+0.00%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded for this book today — every position below is priced at cost/estimate, not a fresh mark.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.27
$17284.77
+0.00%
ETH-USD ×6.23
$11840.32
+0.00%
BTC ×0.02
$1448.55
+0.00%
PositionConviction ThenReturn SinceVerdict
BTC-USD (2026-08-11)
6.5/10
-1.22%
LAGGING
ETH-USD (2026-08-06)
6/10
-0.44%
LAGGING
|
30-day hit rate across all portfolios: +68.40%
|
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research before investing.
Morning Alpha • Generated Tue, 18 Aug 2026 05:09:01 GMT • info@gmc-works.com
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