S&P 500 7745.06 -0.52%NASDAQ 26644.91 -0.32%Dow Jones 53459.78 -0.51%Russell 2K 3057.54 -0.35%VIX 15.19 +6.60%EUR/USD 1.1574 -0.16%
MORNING ALPHA

Daily Financial Newsletter

Tuesday, August 18, 2026 · 07:09:01 · archived issue
EN FR
⚠ Data quality : DEGRADED · 9 notes
⚠ Data quality: DEGRADED
market_pulse — Zurich pre-US-cash open: equity/index/^VIX marks are Monday 2026-08-17 settles; GC=F/CL=F/BTC already show Tuesday 2026-08-18 prints. ^TNX Monday close null from aggregator — published Monday open 4.694 (Friday settle was 4.696).
yesterday_retrospective — Several EU index history rows incomplete through Monday; Stoxx/DAX/CAC/FTSE Monday moves taken from Reuters/MarketScreener closes (Stoxx 600 656.41 −0.22%).
eu_equity_ideas — eu_fundamentals_gap: /fundamentals for TTE.PA thin; idea published on price + web oil catalyst. Stooq live /price blocked for many EU tickers — used EODHD close 75.93 for TTE.PA.
penny_plays — No buy-tier (≥6/10) cleared anti-late-mover + freshness bar: CAPR PDUFA Aug 22 but already >$5 after +77% two-session rip; INO watchlist-only after prior spike. Honest zero buy-tier day.
commodities_outlook — CL=F Tuesday early print $85.18 vs Monday WTI settle ~$84.50–85.0 web quotes — within 2%; USO Monday close $130.29 used for ETF proxy.
crypto_landscape — ETF flow figures are week-of-Aug-10–14 prints ($390M BTC outflow); no same-day Monday flow table in aggregator — held on that institutional signal.
risk_cover_playbook — SPY history missing Monday row; S&P drawdown computed from ^GSPC Fri high 7785.76 → Mon 7745.06. TLT history sparse into Monday for stock-bond corr (used available overlapping sessions).
portfolio_reality_check — INTC /positions avg_price still ~$439 vs fill economics ~$86–100 (known PM bug); holdings show API fields verbatim. EURO/Commodities/Crypto/Penny books largely price_estimated. GOSS SELL still PENDING from Aug 17 — not re-queued.
forex_rebalancing — Squawk-alert endpoint not used (optional); Manifold Sep cut odds ~2.9% used for Fed pricing gap.
General
GeneralThe Bottom Line 1 minHormuz risk is back in the driver’s seat — WTI above $85 and Brent near $91 after the US–Iran ceasefire window closed, with Reddit’s S&P inclusion and Home Depot’s comps print as today’s eq…
THE BOTTOM LINE
RISK-ON=
Hormuz risk is back in the driver’s seat — WTI above $85 and Brent near $91 after the US–Iran ceasefire window closed, with Reddit’s S&P inclusion and Home Depot’s comps print as today’s equity binaries.
Today's Top Picks
USO
8.5/10
RDDT
7.5/10
XOM
7.5/10
TTE.PA
7.5/10
GLD
7.5/10
Biggest Risk
Iran/Hormuz oil premium persists (WTI >$85)
Probability: High • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $302335.42
Blended P&L: +0.78% • 30d Hit Rate: +68.40%
3 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 13 of 19 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 27.3%, average loss -6.8%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 2 minGeopolitical oil is back in charge: WTI futures print $85.18 (+4.2% vs Friday’s $81.77) while the S&P sits at 7,745 (−0.52% Monday) after the US–Iran ceasefire window closed. VIX jumped to…
MARKET PULSE
Geopolitical oil is back in charge: WTI futures print $85.18 (+4.2% vs Friday’s $81.77) while the S&P sits at 7,745 (−0.52% Monday) after the US–Iran ceasefire window closed. VIX jumped to 15.19 (+6.6%) even as gold holds $4,449 — energy inflation premium without a clean risk-off collapse. Watch Home Depot’s pre-open comps and Reddit’s Tuesday S&P inclusion flow before Wednesday’s July FOMC minutes decide whether the long-end yield spike sticks.
Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
Indexes
S&P 500 Data7,745.06
yday 7,785.76
▼ -0.52%
NASDAQ Data26,644.91
yday 26,729.16
▼ -0.32%
Dow Jones Data53,459.78
yday 53,732.41
▼ -0.51%
Russell 2K Data3,057.54
yday 3,068.42
▼ -0.35%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data4,449.50
yday 4,453.00
▼ -0.08%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data85.18
yday 81.77
▲ +4.17%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data64,094.00
yday 63,530.00
▲ +0.89%
Ethereum Data1,892.95
yday 1,899.63
▼ -0.35%
Rates
10Y Yield Data4.69
yday 4.70
▼ -0.04%
Credit
HY OAS Data2.71 percent
yday 2.71 %
calm
IG OAS Data0.79 percent
yday 0.79 %
calm
HY-IG spread differential Data1.92 percentage_pointscalm
Volatility
VIX Data15.19
yday 14.25
▲ +6.60%
VIX9D/VIX front-of-curve ratio Data0.82 ratiocalm
VIX/VIX3M term structure Data0.80 ratio
yday 0.77 ratio
calm
MOVE index Data75.63 indexwatch
Dollar & FX
EUR/USD Data1.16
yday 1.16
▼ -0.16%
DXY (DX-Y.NYB) Data99.64 indexcalm
Breadth
Stock-bond 20d correlation (SPY vs TLT) Data0.42 ratio
yday 0.38 ratio
watch
Cross-asset
Gold/Copper ratio (GLD/CPER) Data10.10 ratiowatch
Cover checks
VIX Data15.19 / 25.00
yday 14.25
Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread Data0.51 / -0.20
yday 0.51 / -0.20
Not Triggered
HY OAS (BAMLH0A0HYM2) Data2.71 / 5.00
yday 2.71 / 5.00
Not Triggered
S&P drawdown from window high Data-0.52 / -10.00
yday 0.00 / -10.00
Not Triggered
DataHedge instruments : GLD, TLT, SH, VIXY · Target cash 15%
If triggered today — do this now AI
• Trim high-beta inclusion/AI names (RDDT-style) to fund hedges
• Add SPY put spreads / VIXY and raise cash toward 15%
• Keep USO/GLD as oil-shock and real-rate hedges rather than cutting both
AI0/4 hard triggers fired (VIX 15.19, curve +51bp, HY OAS 2.71, SPX only −0.5% from Friday’s window high) so regime stays risk-on, but 3 of 9 populated internals are watch (stock-bond corr +0.42, gold/copper elevated, VIX up to 15.2). That matches a market still calm on the hard triggers with Hormuz/long-end cracks underneath — keep the crash checklist ready through HD/WMT and Wednesday’s minutes.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 3 minMonday’s selloff was a geopolitics-and-duration tape: the S&P 500 fell 0.52% to 7,745.06 as the US–Iran ceasefire window expired, Brent jumped toward $91, and the 30-year yield printed 5.29…
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Monday’s selloff was a geopolitics-and-duration tape: the S&P 500 fell 0.52% to 7,745.06 as the US–Iran ceasefire window expired, Brent jumped toward $91, and the 30-year yield printed 5.29% — its highest since 2007 — even as Empire State manufacturing surprised at 20.6.
How Yesterday Unfolded
Asia  Asia led with a selective risk-on: Nikkei +0.74% to 69,220.25 and Hang Seng +1.34% to 25,453.23 on AI/memory strength, while South Korea stayed closed for a Liberation Day substitute holiday — so the later US oil/yield shock did not fully recirculate into Asia that session.
Europe  Europe finished a fourth down session (Stoxx 600 −0.22% to 656.41) as luxury lagged (Kering/LVMH) while energy outperformed on the Hormuz premium — a rotation, not a broad bid.
US  US closed lower across the board (S&P −0.52%, Nasdaq −0.32%, Dow −0.51%) as oil and long yields spiked on the expired US–Iran MoU; chips/memory still outperformed underneath the soft headline.
Capital Rotation
Long-duration / staples (XLP soft; consumer defensives) → Energy (XLE +1.08% Mon to 62.58) · XLE +1.08% on 2026-08-17 vs XLF −1.00% and XLC −1.89%; WTI futures jumped toward mid-$84s
Expired ceasefire + thin Hormuz traffic re-priced the energy complex while rate-sensitive financials and communication services faded with the long-end yield spike.
Index beta / broad S&P → AI hardware / memory (chips outperformed a down tape) · XLK +0.16% to 190.32 while S&P −0.52%; memory/chip names led per session wrap
Institutional AI-capex demand kept absorbing dips even as the macro tape priced oil-inflation and duration stress.
Key Drivers
US–Iran ceasefire MoU expired; Iran signals offensive posture — Negotiations stalled and Iran ruled out extending the memorandum, sending Brent toward $91 and WTI up ~2.6% on supply-route risk through Hormuz.
30-year Treasury yield to 5.29% (highest since 2007) — Long-end yields jumped alongside oil, tightening financial conditions into a week of retail earnings and Wednesday’s FOMC minutes.
Empire State Manufacturing Index 20.6 vs ~11–12 expected — NY Fed’s August print hit a four-year high, confirming regional factory strength that the equity tape largely ignored under the oil/yield shock.
Hormuz tanker traffic still collapsed — Kpler showed only five commodity vessels Saturday and zero Sunday vs 31 the prior weekend — the physical chokepoint risk that kept oil bid into Tuesday.
Bridge to Today
Tuesday’s open hinges on Reddit’s S&P 500 inclusion flow and Home Depot’s pre-bell comps print — and whether oil stays above $85 as FOMC minutes loom Wednesday.
Stocks
Ideas board
TickerRegionCall Conv. Price1dType
RDDTReddit, Inc. USBUY7.5 164.5-7.63% Growth
HDThe Home Depot, Inc. USBUY7 337.88-0.29% Value
XOMExxon Mobil Corporation USBUY7.5 161.460.00% Commodity
TTE.PATotalEnergies SE EUBUY7.5 75.93+0.69% Commodity
INOInovio Pharmaceuticals PennyWATCH5 1.090.00% Penny
StocksUS Equity Ideas 3 minRDDT BUY · HD BUY · XOM BUY
US EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
RDDT↓ Reddit, Inc. 7.5 -7.63%
HD↓ The Home Depot, Inc. 7 -0.29%
XOMNEW Exxon Mobil Corporation 7.5 +0.00%
RDDT  GROWTH BUY 🔥 3-issue streak↓
Reddit, Inc. • Communication Services
7.5/10 Conviction
$164.50
▼ -7.63%
Into Tuesday’s open, expect forced index buying to dominate the tape: S&P DJI’s Aug 18 inclusion replaces AvalonBay with ~$2.9B estimated passive demand, and that mechanical bid is the primary signal (score 7.5 on one…
S&P 500 inclusion effective before open Tuesday Aug 18 (replaces AVB) Monday still closed $164.50 after Friday’s +12% inclusion pop — flow not finished Only Meta remains a pure social peer inside the S&P 500
Target
$190.00
Conviction 75%
Invalidation: Closes below $150 on a weekly basis after the inclusion week, signaling flow exhaustion.

TradingView's price for RDDT. It is not the last print in this letter.

HD  VALUE BUY 🔥 2-issue streak↓
The Home Depot, Inc. • Consumer Discretionary
7/10 Conviction
$337.88
▼ -0.29%
Over today’s print and the next two sessions, the stock is a clean consumer-stress test: Street clusters near ~$4.73 EPS / ~$47B sales with the real tell on comps vs Q1’s +0.6%, and a hold-or-better comps print into…
Q2 FY2026 earnings before open Tuesday Aug 18; call 9:00 a.m. ET Consensus ~$4.73 adj. EPS / ~$47B revenue; comps vs +0.6% Q1 is the line that matters July retail sales −0.6% still framing the consumer debate into this print
Target
$365.00
Conviction 70%
Invalidation: Negative Q2 comps with guidance cut below the flat-to-+2% FY comps band.

TradingView's price for HD. It is not the last print in this letter.

XOM  COMMODITY BUYNEW
Exxon Mobil Corporation • Energy
7.5/10 Conviction
$161.46
▲ +0.00%
Into the next week of Hormuz headlines, expect integrated majors to keep capturing the oil premium: WTI already >$85 and Brent ~$91, and Monday’s geopolitical re-pricing plus an Aug 18 contract-award headline give two…
WTI +4% vs Friday into $85+ as Iran offensive rhetoric hits (Aug 17–18) ExxonMobil awards ~$1.1B contracts headline Aug 18 XLE led Monday sector tape while broad indices fell
Target
$175.00
Conviction 75%
Invalidation: WTI closes back below $78 with a confirmed Hormuz traffic normalization above ~20 vessels/day.

TradingView's price for XOM. It is not the last print in this letter.

Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 1 minTTE.PA BUY
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
TTE.PA↑ TotalEnergies SE 7.5 +0.69%
TTE.PA  COMMODITY BUY 🔥 2-issue streak↑
TotalEnergies SE • Energy
7.5/10 Conviction
$75.93
▲ +0.69%
Over the next several sessions, expect TTE.PA to keep tracking the Hormuz oil premium: Monday’s close at €75.93 already reflects higher liquids realizations, and with Brent near $91 plus stalled ceasefire talks the…
Brent ~$91 / WTI >$85 on Iran offensive posture and Hormuz traffic collapse (Aug 17–18) European energy led Monday while Stoxx 600 fell a fourth session Prior 2Q26 already showed $6.0B adjusted net income capturing Middle East price spike
Target
$82.00
Conviction 75%
Invalidation: Brent sustains below $80 for two weeks with Hormuz transit counts normalized.

TradingView's price for TTE.PA. It is not the last print in this letter.

Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 minINO WATCH
PENNY PLAYS
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
INO↓ Inovio Pharmaceuticals 5 +0.00%
INO  PENNY WATCH 🔥 2-issue streak↓
Inovio Pharmaceuticals • Health Care
5/10 Conviction
$1.09
▲ +0.00%
Scores 5.0/10 as watchlist-only: narrative and suppression vs prior highs are real, but catalyst proximity and balance-sheet clarity are still thin and the stock already ripped hard into mid-August — this is not a…
Narrative
1.5/2
Catalyst
0.5/2
Balance sheet
0.5/2
Price suppression
1.5/2
Institutional
0/1
Social
1/1
Prior mid-August volume spike still digesting (price $1.09 as of Aug 14 history) Need a fresh dated clinical/regulatory event to clear ≥6/10
Target
$1.60
Invalidation: No dated clinical/regulatory catalyst published within 30 days, or dilutive financing below $0.80.
INO between stop and target 1.09
0.61.6
Stop on the left, target on the right. Red and green mark those ends only. The tick is the last price.

TradingView's price for INO. It is not the last print in this letter.

Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Forex
ForexForex Rebalancing Radar 1 min
FOREX REBALANCING RADAR
Base currency: EUR
Currency vs EUR Short-term Medium-term Long-term
USD NEUTRAL (1) SEEK (3) SEEK (4)
JPY 🔥19 SEEK (3) SEEK (4) NEUTRAL (1)
GBP 🔥44 SEEK (2) NEUTRAL (0) NEUTRAL (1)
CHF 🔥19 NEUTRAL (0) NEUTRAL (0) SEEK (2)
NOK 🔥10 SEEK (6) SEEK (5) NEUTRAL (1)
Suggested rebalancing actions
INCREASE NOK vs EUR — Oil premium rebuilding with Brent ~$91 — NOK is the cleanest EUR-cash tilt among oil exporters today.
Conviction 70%
INCREASE JPY vs EUR — Small defensive JPY add vs EUR while geopolitics and EURJPY ~184 keep intervention/risk-off optionality live.
Conviction 50%
HOLD USD vs EUR — Stop actively underweighting USD vs EUR — oil/yield shock neutralized the soft-landing avoid case for now.
Conviction 50%
Crypto
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minInstitutional pipes stayed in risk-off mode after last week’s ~$390M spot Bitcoin ETF outflow (largest in six weeks) and a snapped ETH ETF inflow streak; price stabilized near $64k/$1.89k b…
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Institutional pipes stayed in risk-off mode after last week’s ~$390M spot Bitcoin ETF outflow (largest in six weeks) and a snapped ETH ETF inflow streak; price stabilized near $64k/$1.89k but flows have not flipped back to green.
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
BTC-USD Bitcoin 5.5 +0.89%
ETH-USD Ethereum 5 -0.35%
BTC-USD  HOLD 🔥 42-issue streak
Bitcoin
5.5/10 Conviction
$64094.00
▲ +0.89%
Into the next ETF-flow print, stay on HOLD: a bounce to ~$64.1k does not repair a $390M weekly redemption cluster, and adding before multi-day inflow re-acceleration is buying hope against the institutional tape. Wait…
Next daily/weekly spot BTC ETF flow print (watch for re-acceleration) FOMC minutes Wed as USD/real-yield swing factor
Conviction 55%
Invalidation: BTC closes below $60k on a weekly basis.

TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.

undefined · 20d illustrative range
undefined illustrative 20-day price cone from 64094: 5th pct 60569.5, median 64056.89, 95th pct 67745.08 (vol 12.08% annualised)undefined · 20d illustrative range60138.9762817.8565496.7368175.61Illustrative · vol 12.08% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
ETH-USD  HOLD 🔥 42-issue streak
Ethereum
5/10 Conviction
$1892.95
▼ -0.35%
Near-term, ETH stays a HOLD while the ETF complex is net flat-to-negative: the five-week inflow streak just broke on a $2.3M outflow, and price is range-bound near $1,893 — need a fresh institutional catalyst before…
ETH spot ETF flow re-acceleration Any dated L2/TVL or ETF-issuer allocation headline this week
Conviction 50%
Invalidation: ETH closes below $1,700 on a weekly basis.

TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.

undefined · 20d illustrative range
undefined illustrative 20-day price cone from 1892.95: 5th pct 1774.64, median 1891.53, 95th pct 2016.11 (vol 13.77% annualised)undefined · 20d illustrative range1760.151850.31940.452030.6Illustrative · vol 13.77% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 2 minOil extends the Hormuz premium with WTI futures at $85.18 and Brent near $91 as Iran shifts rhetoric to an offensive posture; gold stays bid near $4,450 as a parallel hedge.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Oil extends the Hormuz premium with WTI futures at $85.18 and Brent near $91 as Iran shifts rhetoric to an offensive posture; gold stays bid near $4,450 as a parallel hedge.
Oil and gold rising together while the dollar sits near 99.6 and 10Y breakevens (T10YIE) print 2.28% is a classic geopolitical-premium stack: if Hormuz traffic…
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
USO WTI Crude (USO proxy) 8.5 +2.91%
GLD Gold 7.5 +1.00%
WTI Crude (USO proxy)  ENERGY BUY 🔥 16-issue streak
USO
8.5/10 Conviction
$130.29
▲ +2.91%
Over the next few sessions, treat Hormuz as a live call option on supply: Kpler’s weekend traffic collapse (5/0 vs 31) plus Iran’s offensive-posture rhetoric already lifted USO +2.9% Monday to $130.29, and Brent still…
Iran signals fully offensive posture; US rules out ceasefire extension (Aug 17–18) Kpler Hormuz transits: 5 Sat / 0 Sun vs 31 prior weekend Brent ~$91.14 Tuesday; WTI futures $85.18
Conviction 85%
Invalidation: WTI sustains closes below $78 for a full week while Hormuz daily transits normalize above ~20.

TradingView's price for USO. It is not the last print in this letter.

undefined · 20d illustrative range
undefined illustrative 20-day price cone from 130.29: 5th pct 100.75, median 128.84, 95th pct 164.76 (vol 53.07% annualised)undefined · 20d illustrative range96.91120.81144.7168.6Illustrative · vol 53.07% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Gold  PRECIOUS METAL BUY 🔥 16-issue streak
GLD
7.5/10 Conviction
$405.49
▲ +1.00%
Into FOMC minutes, keep gold as the dual hedge: GLD +1.0% Monday to $405.49 while GC=F holds ~$4,450 as hike odds stay suppressed (Manifold Sep cut only ~3%) yet geopolitics refuse to clear — that combination…
Spot gold ~$4,424–4,450 into Tuesday as rate-hike odds ease Geopolitical safe-haven bid alongside oil (same session) July FOMC minutes due Wednesday
Conviction 75%
Invalidation: GC=F sustains below $4,300 on a weekly close while real yields re-accelerate higher.

TradingView's price for GLD. It is not the last print in this letter.

undefined · 20d illustrative range
undefined illustrative 20-day price cone from 405.49: 5th pct 363.11, median 404.61, 95th pct 450.86 (vol 23.35% annualised)undefined · 20d illustrative range357.85390.61423.37456.13Illustrative · vol 23.35% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
GeneralTop 5 Risks Right Now 1 min#1 Iran/Hormuz oil premium persists (WTI >$85)
TOP 5 RISKS RIGHT NOW
#RiskProbability Impact Trend
1Iran/Hormuz oil premium persists (WTI >$85)NEWHighHighEscalating
2Long-end yields stick near multi-decade highs (30Y ~5.29%)NEWMediumHighNew
3US consumer fatigue — HD today / WMT Thursday testNEWMediumHighEscalating
4Credit complacency / HY OAS still ~2.71NEWMediumMediumStable
5Retail earnings disappointment cluster (HD/WMT week)NEWMediumMediumNew
Watch: Daily Hormuz transit counts (Kpler)
GeneralWhat's Coming Up 1 min2026-08-18 — Home Depot Q2 earnings (comps vs +0.6%) before open
WHAT'S COMING UP
2026-08-18 Home Depot Q2 earnings (comps vs +0.6%) before open · us_equity_ideas
2026-08-18 Reddit joins S&P 500 (forced passive buying) · us_equity_ideas
2026-08-19 July FOMC meeting minutes released · risk_top5
2026-08-20 Walmart FY27 Q2 earnings (consumer health check) · risk_top5
Stocks
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 5 min30d hit rate 68%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech US
+2.34%
Anti-Fragile
+0.00%
Trend Follow
+0.00%
Named holdings. 43 smaller positions (12.31%) are off this picture.
Portfolio allocation: Cash 79.66%, TTE.PA 3.64%, USO 3.51%, ASML.AS 3.45%, XOM 3.21%, BTC-USD 2.76%, ETH-USD 1.89%, GLD 1.87%Cash79.66%TTE.PA3.64%USO3.51%ASML.ASXOM3.21%BTC-USDETH-USD1.89%GLD1.87%
Tech US
Performance
Total Value
$102335.42
Cash
$33643.45
P&L
$2335.42 (+2.34%)
Realized P&L
$-2664.87
TWR
+2.30%
Sharpe
1.03
Max DD
-2.39%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions67%
Cash33%
Today's Moves
ActionTickerQtyStatus
BuyRDDT4.35dispatched
BuyHD2.07dispatched
BuyXOM4.25dispatched
HoldRDDT8.54—
Current Holdings
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93$9021.11+5.9%
XOM ×125$20126.72+5.8%
UNH ×8.49$3359.84-7.2%
INTC ×14.08$1457.21-76.4%
MSFT ×11.91$5722.17+18.0%
SBUX ×11.63$1254.70+1.2%
CBRE ×8.29$1226.80-1.0%
AMZN ×4.38$1145.22-3.8%
+16 more holdings
Track Record 7 On Track · 3 Lagging
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
RDDT (2026-08-15)8/10-7.6%Lagging
HD (2026-08-17)7.5/10-0.3%On Track
XOM (2026-08-18)7.5/10+0.0%On Track
MU (2026-08-13)7/10+7.7%On Track
AMAT (2026-08-11)7.5/10+0.7%On Track
MSFT (2026-08-02)8/10+18.0%On Track
MRVL (2026-08-05)7/10+198.5%On Track
UNH (2026-07-19)7/10-7.2%Lagging
PLTR (2026-08-09)7/10-7.5%Lagging
INTC (2026-07-30)7/10+18.8%On Track
Euro Only
Performance
Total Value
$116239.42
Cash
$49648.89
P&L
$16239.42 (+16.24%)
Realized P&L
$-1870.28
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
ActionTickerQtyStatus
BuyTTE.PA13.34dispatched
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded for this book today — every position below is priced at cost/estimate, not a fresh mark.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×2.28$21594.47+0.0%
TTE.PA ×310$22786.63+0.0%
UNA.AS ×48.5$2832.95+0.0%
KER.PA ×5.3$1553.28+0.0%
RR.L ×101$1460.08+0.0%
VIE.PA ×48.5$1430.88+0.0%
GLE.PA ×17.29$1402.26+0.0%
MNDI.L ×158$1402.26+0.0%
+8 more holdings
Track Record 3 On Track
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
TTE.PA (2026-07-19)7/10+3.5%On Track
ASML.AS (2026-08-12)7.5/10+0.0%On Track
ENR.DE (2026-08-06)6.5/10+6.5%On Track
Penny Plays
Performance
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$84510.79
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
ActionTickerQtyStatus
SellGOSS18578pending
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded for this book today — every position below is priced at cost/estimate, not a fresh mark.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578$3755.55+0.0%
PYPD ×860$3593.88+0.0%
STXS ×2738$3557.21+0.0%
Track Record 1 On Track · 1 Stopped Out
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
PYPD (2026-08-04)7/10+13.4%On Track
GOSS (2026-07-20)6.5/10-23.7%Stopped Out
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$100000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Cash100%
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Trend Follow
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$100000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Cash100%
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Commodities
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$61526.80
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
ActionTickerQtyStatus
BuyUSO9.83dispatched
BuyGLD3.1dispatched
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded for this book today — every position below is priced at cost/estimate, not a fresh mark.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
USO ×171$21992.70+0.0%
GLD ×30.1$11738.20+0.0%
CPER ×83.09$3235.64+0.0%
SLV ×26.87$1506.66+0.0%
Track Record 2 On Track
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
USO (2026-08-11)8/10+1.1%On Track
GLD (2026-08-06)7/10+4.5%On Track
Crypto
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$69426.36
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded for this book today — every position below is priced at cost/estimate, not a fresh mark.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.2664$17284.77+0.0%
ETH-USD ×6.23$11840.32+0.0%
BTC ×0.0223$1448.55+0.0%
Track Record 2 Lagging
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
BTC-USD (2026-08-11)6.5/10-1.2%Lagging
ETH-USD (2026-08-06)6/10-0.4%Lagging
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +68.40%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Morning Alpha • Generated Tue, 18 Aug 2026 05:09:01 GMT • info@gmc-works.com