|
|
⚠ Data quality: DEGRADED
market_pulse — Data Aggregator TLS handshake reset (data-aggregator-api.gmc-works.com) all run — prices from Yahoo chart/meta + CNBC/Reuters web cross-checks. Equity marks are Monday 2026-08-17 closes; VIX/futures/FX/commodity/crypto include Tuesday 2026-08-18 prints.
yesterday_retrospective — Aggregator history unavailable; regional/sector moves from Yahoo history + CNBC/Herald/Deutsche Bank recaps for Monday Aug 17.
commodities_outlook — Aggregator down — CL=F/BZ=F/GC=F from Yahoo; WTI web prints ~$85.3–85.6 vs Yahoo Aug-18 84.17 (~1.6%, within 2%). USO/GLD ETF marks use Yahoo meta (USO ~130.29, GLD ~405.49).
crypto_landscape — Aggregator down — BTC/ETH Yahoo 24h marks; ETF flows from Farside Investors Aug 17 table (+$137.3M BTC; +$5M ETH).
us_equity_ideas — Aggregator /price /fundamentals /news unreachable — prices Yahoo meta/Fri-Mon closes; catalysts from web search (HD IR, refining revisions, oil geopolitics).
eu_equity_ideas — eu_fundamentals_gap + aggregator outage — TTE.PA Tuesday Yahoo 76.88; buyback filing + oil catalyst from web.
penny_plays — Aggregator /sentiment /altdata unavailable — Social_Momentum/Institutional_Signal scored from web only. PYPD Yahoo ~$4.77.
forex_rebalancing — Aggregator /price /macro /predictions unreachable — EUR crosses from Yahoo; HY/policy context from FRED CSV (HY OAS 2.67 Aug 14) + web. Squawk-alert skipped.
risk_top5 — HY OAS from FRED graph CSV (2.67 on 2026-08-14); VIX/VIX3M from Yahoo; no live predictions endpoint.
risk_cover_playbook — Triggers computed from Yahoo/FRED web proxies; several market_internals omitted (SOFR, put/call, VIX9D) due to aggregator outage.
portfolio_reality_check — Portfolio Manager unreachable (connection reset to portfolio-manager.gmc-works.com) — no new trade dispatches this run. Performance/holdings carried from morning nl_2026-08-18_070901 with picks_reviewed returns refreshed vs Yahoo/web where possible. Intended BUYs recorded as dispatched:false.
|
|
THE BOTTOM LINE
|
RISK-ON
Iran/Hormuz is still the tape: Brent ~$91 and 30Y yields near multi-decade highs into Home Depot’s print, while Bitcoin ETF pipes just flipped back to +$137M inflows.
Today's Top Picks
USO
· commodities_outlook — Hormuz supply premium; Brent holds ~$91.
HD
· us_equity_ideas — Q2 print/call today is the consumer binary.
XOM
· us_equity_ideas — Liquid US equity proxy for oil geopolitics.
TTE.PA
· eu_equity_ideas — EU integrated oil + fresh buyback disclosure.
VLO
· us_equity_ideas — Refining-margin estimate revisions still rising.
|
Biggest Risk
Iran/Hormuz oil premium persists (Brent >$90 / WTI >$85)
Probability: High • Impact: High
|
|
|
|
|
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Monday’s selloff was a geopolitics-plus-rates tape: the US-Iran MoU expired without extension, Brent jumped to ~$91, and the 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high near 5.31%, offsetting a semiconductor rally on Anthropic’s revenue print.
How Yesterday Unfolded
Asia
Asia opened soft into the oil/geopolitics overhang and closed mixed-to-weaker into the US session, with risk appetite already fading before Wall Street’s open.
Europe
Europe finished lower before the full US yield spike played out: Stoxx 600 −0.22%, DAX −0.38%, CAC 40 −0.66%, FTSE 100 −0.28% as energy importers digested higher oil.
US
US closed with S&P 500 −0.52% at 7,745.06, Dow −0.51%, Nasdaq −0.32%; chips held up (PHLX Semiconductor +1.6%) on Anthropic >$11.5B Q2 revenue while energy led and breadth was poor (367 S&P decliners).
Capital Rotation
Growth/Tech ex-semis (XLK −0.40% Fri proxy; broad tech soft Monday) → Energy (XLE +1.39% Fri; Monday energy leadership on oil spike)
· WTI +2.55% to ~$84.50 and Brent +2.65% to ~$90.87 Monday while major US indices fell ~0.3–0.5%
Hormuz/MoU-expiry supply premium redirected capital into energy while higher long-end yields compressed duration-sensitive multiples.
Equal-weight S&P / cyclicals ex-energy → AI semiconductors
· Equal-weight S&P −0.92% vs PHLX Semiconductor +1.64%; MU/SNDK led
Anthropic’s revenue surge re-opened the AI-capex bid even as the macro tape was risk-off.
Key Drivers
US-Iran MoU expiry without extension
— Trump said he would not extend the expiring memorandum; Iran signaled a more offensive posture, keeping Hormuz shipping risk in the price of oil.
30-year Treasury yield to ~5.31% (19-year high)
— Oil-led inflation fears plus heavy issuance pushed the long end to levels last seen around 2007, pressuring equity valuations.
Anthropic Q2 revenue >$11.5B
— Preliminary revenue at least 14× y/y with positive adjusted operating income lifted chipmakers and limited Nasdaq losses.
Bridge to Today
Today’s open hinges on whether Home Depot’s pre-market print confirms consumer fatigue and whether Brent holds above $91 as Iran keeps a fully-offensive posture.
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|
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Brent holds the $91 handle on a fresh Hormuz strike narrative while gold chops under a firmer 10-year — energy remains the cleanest long, precious metals the hedge that needs a yield pause.
Cross-Commodity Macro Linkage
Oil + gold still both elevated vs early-August levels while DXY drifts near 99.6 — the pattern is a geopolitics premium, not a classic growth scare. If Brent stays >$90 into Fed minutes Wednesday, expect energy equities/ETFs to keep outrunning gold on a 1–5 session horizon.
|
WTI Crude (USO)
ENERGY BUY 🔥 17-issue streak
USO
|
$130.29
▲ +2.91%
|
Over the next few sessions, expect the WTI/USO bid to persist while Hormuz crossings stay depressed and Iran keeps a fully-offensive posture — this is a supply-premium tape, not a demand spike. Goldman/JPMorgan still flag $114–$120 Brent paths if disruptions stretch months, so the asymmetric risk remains to the upside until tanker traffic normalizes. Paper exposure stays via USO, not CL=F.
⚡ Iran signals fully-offensive posture after MoU expiry (Aug 17–18) ⚡ Hormuz commodity vessel crossings only 6 on Monday vs ~11 10-day avg ⚡ Brent holds ~$91; WTI web prints ~$85.3–85.6 Tuesday Asia
Invalidation: Brent sustains closes back below $88 with a confirmed rebound in Hormuz VLCC/LNG crossings.
|
|
Gold (GLD)
PRECIOUS METAL HOLD 🔥 17-issue streak
GLD
|
$405.49
▲ +1.00%
|
Near-term, gold is fighting higher nominal yields and oil-led inflation fears — Tuesday spot slipped ~0.4% in Asia even after Monday’s safe-haven bid. Keep the geopolitical hedge, but do not add: the next catalyst is Fed minutes Wednesday; without a dovish tilt, real-rate pressure can keep capping GLD. Downgrade to HOLD until yields stabilize.
⚡ Tuesday gold soft on firmer Treasury yields (Reuters) ⚡ Fed July FOMC minutes due Wednesday Aug 19 ⚡ Spot still ~$4,397–4,450 zone after Monday’s geopolitics bounce
Invalidation: GLD loses the $395 area on a sustained daily close while 10Y holds above 4.75%.
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|
Copper (CPER)
INDUSTRIAL METAL WATCH
CPER
|
$40.01
▲ +0.40%
|
Physical tightness (LME spot vs 3M backwardation briefly ~$545/t Monday) is real, but Tuesday’s HG=F dip to ~6.53 argues the macro tape is not yet confirming a growth-led copper breakout. Watch inventory/backwardation into the rest of the week — this is a WATCH, not a chase.
⚡ LME copper severe physical tightness / wide backwardation Monday ⚡ HG=F Tuesday soft ~6.53 after flat Monday close
Invalidation: LME backwardation collapses below ~$100/t for a full week while HG=F loses $6.40.
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MARKET PULSE
|
S&P 500
7745.06
▼ -0.52%
|
NASDAQ
26644.91
▼ -0.32%
|
Dow Jones
53459.78
▼ -0.51%
|
Russell 2K
3068.42
▲ +0.51%
|
VIX
15.86
▲ +11.37%
|
EUR/USD
1.1577
▲ +0.03%
|
Gold
4446.7
▲ +0.65%
|
Oil (WTI)
85.31
▲ +0.96%
|
Bitcoin
64116.19
▼ -0.60%
|
10Y Yield
4.728
▲ +0.72%
|
Oil and the long end still set the tape: Brent holds ~$91 and the 10-year sits near 4.73% while S&P futures trade ~7,728 (−0.5%) after Monday’s −0.52% cash close. VIX has jumped to ~15.9 from Friday’s 14.25 even as EUR/USD chops at 1.158 — stagflation-lite, not a clean risk-off. Watch Home Depot’s BMO print and 9am ET call for the consumer read that either confirms or fades Monday’s retail-sales hangover.
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|
US EQUITY IDEAS
|
HD
VALUE BUY 🔥 3-issue streak
The Home Depot, Inc. • Consumer Discretionary
|
$337.88
▼ -0.29%
|
Over the next session, HD is a binary consumer test: BMO Q2 print (consensus ~$4.73 EPS / ~$47B sales) and the 9am ET call will either reaffirm the flat-to-2% comps guide or confirm Monday’s soft-landing worry. Signal justifying 7.5: dated earnings catalyst today plus housing/mortgage backdrop already in the price — one strong event catalyst, not two independent confirms. Size as a catalyst trade, not a multi-week compounder until comps and GMS margin commentary land.
⚡ Fiscal Q2 2026 earnings before open Tue Aug 18 (IR webcast 9am ET) ⚡ Street focus on comps vs Q1 +0.6% and GMS mix margin drag ⚡ Monday retail-sales hangover still framing the consumer debate
|
Mkt Cap
N/A
| |
P/E
N/A
| |
Beta
N/A
| |
Target
$365.00
| |
Conviction
7.5/10
|
Invalidation: Comps print negative and FY guide is cut on the Aug 18 call.
|
|
XOM
COMMODITY BUY 🔥 2-issue streak
Exxon Mobil Corporation • Energy
|
$161.46
▲ +0.85%
|
Into the rest of the week, XOM remains the liquid US equity proxy for a Hormuz supply premium while Brent holds the $91 area — expect relative outperformance vs the S&P as long as tanker risk stays in the headlines. Conviction 7.5 on one strong geopolitics/oil signal (same category as Monday’s catalyst, still live Tuesday). Not an 8+ without a second independent confirm (e.g. named production outage print).
⚡ Iran fully-offensive posture / MoU non-extension still live Aug 18 ⚡ Brent ~$91; WTI web ~$85+ Tuesday ⚡ Energy leadership Monday while S&P fell 0.5%
|
Mkt Cap
N/A
| |
P/E
N/A
| |
Beta
N/A
| |
Target
$175.00
| |
Conviction
7.5/10
|
Invalidation: Brent closes below $88 for two sessions with Hormuz traffic normalizing.
|
|
VLO
COMMODITY BUY
Valero Energy Corporation • Energy
|
$347.19
▲ +1.62%
|
Over the next few weeks, VLO is the refining-margin expression of the same oil shock — gasoline >$4/gal and rising crack spreads have driven large upward EPS revisions (Zacks notes multi-estimate lifts into Aug 18). Fresh Aug 18 revision/news flow is the qualifying catalyst; conviction 7.0 on that single sell-side/estimate signal. Prefer VLO over chasing already-extended memory semis for energy-complex diversification.
⚡ Aug 18 coverage: analysts lifting VLO EPS estimates on refining margins ⚡ Q2 2026 net income strength already printed; revisions still moving higher ⚡ Oil complex bid extending into Tuesday Asia
|
Mkt Cap
N/A
| |
P/E
N/A
| |
Beta
N/A
| |
Target
$380.00
| |
Conviction
7/10
|
Invalidation: Crack spreads roll over and consensus FY EPS is cut >10% within two weeks.
|
|
|
EU EQUITY IDEAS
|
TTE.PA
COMMODITY BUY 🔥 3-issue streak
TotalEnergies SE • Energy
|
$76.88
▲ +1.25%
|
Into this week’s oil premium, TTE.PA remains the primary European integrated oil expression — Tuesday’s print ~€76.88 (+1.2% vs Monday) and the Aug 18 own-share purchase disclosure keep the buyback bid visible alongside Brent >$90. Conviction 7.5 on the live geopolitics/oil catalyst (fresh within 48h). Prefer adding on Europe cash hours rather than chasing US-listed TTE ADR noise.
⚡ Aug 18 regulatory announcement: TotalEnergies share repurchases Aug 10–14 (~€120M) ⚡ Brent holds ~$91 on Iran/Hormuz risk Tuesday ⚡ TTE.PA Tuesday Yahoo close/ path ~76.88 vs Monday 75.93
|
Mkt Cap
N/A
| |
P/E
N/A
| |
Beta
N/A
| |
Target
$85.00
| |
Conviction
7.5/10
|
Invalidation: Brent back below $88 and TTE.PA loses €74 on a weekly close.
|
|
|
PENNY PLAYS
|
PYPD
PENNY BUY
PolyPid Ltd. • Health Care
|
$4.77
▲ +0.63%
|
In 3–6 months into the Nov 28, 2026 PDUFA, PYPD is a Priority-Review surgical-site-infection story with a dated FDA clock and Azurity commercialization capital already unlocked ($30M near-term milestones) — a classic proxy play on hospital anti-infective launch optionality. Scores 6.5/10: narrative 2, catalyst proximity 2 (dated PDUFA), balance sheet 1 (cash was thin pre-Azurity but milestones now fund runway), price suppression 1, institutional 0.5 (partner, not insider cluster), social 0. Still binary FDA risk — size small.
⚡ FDA Priority Review PDUFA goal date Nov 28, 2026 for D-PLEX100 ⚡ Azurity partnership unlocked $30M upfront/near-term milestones after July 27 NDA acceptance ⚡ Price still sub-$5 (~$4.77) without a 30–40% 5–10 session spike
|
Mkt Cap
N/A
| |
P/E
N/A
| |
Beta
N/A
| |
Target
$8.00
| |
Conviction
6.5/10
|
Invalidation: FDA issues a CRL / major amendment that pushes the decision past Q1 2027 without a clear path, or a dilutive raise >25% of shares.
|
|
INO
PENNY WATCH 🔥 3-issue streak
Inovio Pharmaceuticals • Health Care
|
$1.15
▲ +5.50%
|
Scores 5.0/10 — narrative and Oct-30-ish INO-3107 PDUFA proximity are real, but the name already ripped from ~$0.77 to ~$1.09–1.15 in days (anti-late-mover), and balance-sheet/dilution risk keeps it below buy-tier. Watching for a digest/pullback before any paper capital.
⚡ INO-3107 PDUFA-linked catalyst window cited into late Oct 2026 ⚡ Price already +40% in under a week — confirmation, not ground floor
|
Mkt Cap
N/A
| |
P/E
N/A
| |
Beta
N/A
| |
Target
$1.80
| |
Conviction
5/10
|
Invalidation: Breaks back below $0.70 on volume without a dated FDA update.
|
|
|
FOREX REBALANCING RADAR
Base currency: EUR — every stance below is relative to holding this currency's cash instead of EUR.
| Currency (vs EUR) |
Short-term |
Medium-term |
Long-term |
| USD |
SEEK (3) |
SEEK (4) |
SEEK (4) |
|
Expect a modest USD tilt vs EUR while Brent >$90 and 10Y ~4.73% keep US nominal yields supported — soft retail no longer dominates the 1–4 week FX read.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces this morning’s avoid→neutral flip and nudges short-term to mild seek
|
| JPY 🔥20 |
SEEK (3) |
SEEK (4) |
NEUTRAL (1) |
|
Prefer JPY vs EUR into risk-off oil shocks while EURJPY ~184.8 and Nikkei −2.54% overnight keep a defensive yen bid alive.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces seek stance
|
| GBP 🔥45 |
SEEK (2) |
NEUTRAL (1) |
NEUTRAL (0) |
|
Mild GBP preference vs EUR while EURGBP ~0.8555 and UK rates still offer a carry edge — capped near ±2 without a fresh BoE signal <30d.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces mild seek
|
| CHF 🔥20 |
NEUTRAL (0) |
NEUTRAL (0) |
SEEK (2) |
|
EURCHF ~0.940 offers no clean edge today — SNB most recent guidance is not a fresh <30d directional signal, so absolute scores stay capped.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces neutral short-term
|
| NOK 🔥11 |
SEEK (6) |
SEEK (5) |
NEUTRAL (1) |
|
Expect NOK to keep outperforming EUR while Brent holds ~$91 — oil-exporter beta is the cleanest EUR-cash tilt today.
· vs. yesterday: reinforces seek
|
Suggested rebalancing actions
INCREASE NOK vs EUR — Oil premium still rebuilding with Brent ~$91 — NOK remains the cleanest EUR-cash tilt among oil exporters.
INCREASE USD vs EUR — Nudge USD from neutral to a small seek vs EUR while 10Y ~4.73% and oil keep US nominal yields supported.
INCREASE JPY vs EUR — Small defensive JPY add vs EUR after Nikkei −2.54% and EURJPY ~184.8 into the oil shock.
|
|
TOP 5 RISKS RIGHT NOW
|
#1 — Iran/Hormuz oil premium persists (Brent >$90 / WTI >$85)
🔥 16
Escalating
Probability: HIGH
• Impact: HIGH
• Horizon: days to weeks
Watch: Hormuz daily vessel crossings vs 10-day average; Any US-Iran negotiation headline before weekend; Brent hold/break of $91
|
|
#2 — Long-end yields stick near multi-decade highs (30Y ~5.31%)
🔥 2
Escalating
Probability: HIGH
• Impact: HIGH
• Horizon: 1-4 weeks
Watch: Fed July FOMC minutes Wed Aug 19; 30Y hold above 5.25%; 10Y path around 4.73%
|
|
#3 — US consumer fatigue — HD today / WMT Thursday test
🔥 4
Escalating
Probability: MEDIUM
• Impact: HIGH
• Horizon: this week
Watch: Home Depot comps + FY guide on Aug 18 call; Walmart earnings Thursday Aug 20; Follow-through in XLY/XRT
|
|
#4 — Credit complacency / HY OAS still ~2.67
🔥 16
Stable
Probability: MEDIUM
• Impact: HIGH
• Horizon: 1-3 months
Watch: FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 next prints; HYG vs TLT on risk-off days; Any issuer-specific HY blowup headline
|
|
#5 — Crowded AI/memory re-rating snapback after Anthropic print (breadth watch)
New
Probability: MEDIUM
• Impact: MEDIUM
• Horizon: 1-2 weeks
Watch: MU/SNDK follow-through vs SOX; Whether equal-weight S&P keeps lagging; Any AI-capex skeptic research note this week
|
|
|
CRASH / BEAR-MARKET COVER PLAYBOOK
Regime: RISK-ON
| VIX |
15.86 / 25 |
Not Triggered
|
| 10Y-2Y spread |
0.51 / -0.2 |
Not Triggered
|
| HY OAS (BAMLH0A0HYM2) |
2.67 / 5 |
Not Triggered
|
| S&P drawdown from window high |
-0.52 / -10 |
Not Triggered
|
If triggered today — do this now
• Trim high-beta discretionary and crowded AI/memory winners first
• Add crash hedges via SH/VIXY and barbell GLD+TLT
• Raise cash to ~15–20% across risk books until VIX term structure stops steepening into stress
Hedge instruments: GLD, TLT, SH, VIXY
• Target cash: 15%
0/4 hard triggers fired (VIX 15.9, curve still positive, HY OAS 2.67, S&P only −0.5% from Friday’s local high), so regime stays risk-on — but today’s named risks (Hormuz oil, 30Y yields, HD print) mean the ready checklist should emphasize energy-inflation hedges (GLD) over pure duration if triggers trip. Market-internals lean watch on vol (VIX up to 15.9 vs VIX3M 19.0 still contango) and gold/copper still geopolitics-colored rather than recession-colored.
|
|
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Spot Bitcoin ETFs flipped back to +$137.3M net inflows on Aug 17 (Fidelity FBTC +$111.9M) after three redemption sessions — the first clean institutional demand reset in a week. ETH ETF flows were only +$5M, so the bid is BTC-led, not broad crypto risk-on.
Institutional Moves
Fidelity (FBTC)
Led Aug 17 US spot Bitcoin ETF rebound with $111.9M net inflow, reversing three prior FBTC redemption sessions totaling ~$108.7M.
Farside Investors (flow table)
Aggregate reported US spot BTC ETF net flow +$137.3M on 17 Aug 2026; IBIT still pending in that print, so final total may revise higher.
Adoption Landscape
[United States] US spot ETH ETFs returned to a thin +$5M net inflow on Aug 17 (FETH +$4.3M, ETHW +$0.7M) — confirmation that Monday’s institutional reset was overwhelmingly Bitcoin-specific.
Asset Ideas
|
BTC-USD
BUY 🔥 43-issue streak
Bitcoin
|
$64116.19
▼ -0.60%
|
Into the next 1–2 ETF-flow sessions, treat Monday’s +$137M rebound as the first evidence institutional pipes can refill after the Aug 12–14 redemption stretch — upgrade to BUY for a measured add, not a momentum chase. Invalidation is quick: another multi-day outflow print or a weekly close back under $60k would put us back on HOLD. IBIT’s pending Aug 17 line is the near-term confirmation tell.
⚡ US spot BTC ETFs +$137.3M net on Aug 17 (Farside) ⚡ Fidelity FBTC +$111.9M single-day inflow ⚡ Price holding ~$64.1k after Monday’s rebound from ~$62.8k
Invalidation: Weekly close below $60,000 or two consecutive sessions of >$100M aggregate BTC ETF outflows.
|
|
ETH-USD
HOLD 🔥 43-issue streak
Ethereum
|
$1894.93
▼ -0.90%
|
ETH stays HOLD: Monday’s ETF bid was only +$5M while BTC took >96% of combined flows — no independent institutional confirmation yet. Need a multi-day ETH ETF inflow streak or a clear L2/DeFi TVL catalyst before sizing.
⚡ ETH spot ETFs +$5M Aug 17 (thin vs BTC) ⚡ Price ~$1,895, still below Monday’s $1,912 print
Invalidation: Daily close below $1,750 on rising ETF outflows.
|
|
|
WHAT'S COMING UP
| 2026-08-18 |
Home Depot Q2 FY2026 earnings BMO + 9am ET call
· us_equity_ideas
|
| 2026-08-19 |
Fed July FOMC minutes
· risk_top5
|
| 2026-08-20 |
Walmart earnings — consumer confirmation after HD
· risk_top5
|
| 2026-08-22 |
Capricor (CAPR) deramiocel PDUFA (not a penny-eligible name >$5)
· risk_top5
|
| 2026-11-28 |
PolyPid (PYPD) D-PLEX100 PDUFA (Priority Review)
· penny_plays
|
|
|
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
|
Tech US
Performance
|
Total Value
$102335.42
|
Cash
$33643.45
|
P&L
$2335.42 (+2.34%)
|
Realized P&L
$-2664.87
|
|
TWR
+2.30%
|
Sharpe
1.03
|
Max DD
-2.39%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
BUY
HD
Intended add into Aug 18 BMO earnings — PM unreachable, not dispatched.
BUY
XOM
Intended oil/Hormuz add — PM unreachable, not dispatched.
BUY
VLO
Intended refining-margin add on estimate revisions — PM unreachable.
Current Holdings
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$9021.11
+5.85%
XOM ×124.65
$20126.72
+5.83%
UNH ×8.49
$3359.84
-7.15%
INTC ×14.08
$1457.21
-76.43%
MSFT ×11.91
$5722.17
+18.03%
SBUX ×11.63
$1254.70
+1.20%
CBRE ×8.29
$1226.80
-1.05%
AMZN ×4.38
$1145.22
-3.78%
CVX ×6.05
$1225.46
+2.98%
FRO ×30.23
$1275.17
+7.14%
PLTR ×5.87
$1013.11
-7.48%
MRVL ×13.67
$3203.34
+198.51%
CAT ×1.20
$1057.80
+0.58%
LLY ×1.71
$2024.86
+0.22%
ELF ×11.69
$1095.25
+8.44%
ABNB ×6.53
$1170.28
+18.23%
TWLO ×5.12
$1171.21
+18.33%
BRK-B ×1.78
$888.39
-4.52%
CSCO ×21.70
$2450.37
-6.78%
CRWV ×9.86
$1044.65
+16.91%
AMAT ×4.69
$2508.09
+0.72%
MU ×1.67
$1688.00
+7.68%
RDDT ×12.88
$2119.02
-5.19%
HD ×4.27
$1443.19
-0.15%
Track Record
6 On Track · 4 Lagging
PositionConviction ThenReturn SinceVerdict
RDDT (2026-08-15)
8/10
-7.63%
LAGGING
HD (2026-08-17)
7.5/10
-0.29%
LAGGING
XOM (2026-08-18)
7.5/10
+0.85%
ON TRACK
MU (2026-08-13)
7/10
+7.68%
ON TRACK
AMAT (2026-08-11)
7.5/10
+0.72%
ON TRACK
MSFT (2026-08-02)
8/10
+18.00%
ON TRACK
MRVL (2026-08-05)
7/10
+198.50%
ON TRACK
UNH (2026-07-19)
7/10
-7.15%
LAGGING
PLTR (2026-08-09)
7/10
-7.48%
LAGGING
INTC (2026-07-30)
7/10
+18.80%
ON TRACK
|
|
Euro Only
Performance
|
Total Value
$116239.42
|
Cash
$49648.89
|
P&L
$16239.42 (+16.24%)
|
Realized P&L
$-1870.28
|
|
TWR
+16.24%
|
Sharpe
2.50
|
Max DD
-1.87%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
BUY
TTE.PA
Intended EU energy add on oil + buybacks — PM unreachable.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded for this book today — every position below is priced at cost/estimate, not a fresh mark.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×2.28
$21594.47
+0.00%
TTE.PA ×309.96
$22786.63
+0.00%
UNA.AS ×48.50
$2832.95
+0.00%
KER.PA ×5.30
$1553.28
+0.00%
RR.L ×101.30
$1460.08
+0.00%
VIE.PA ×48.50
$1430.88
+0.00%
GLE.PA ×17.29
$1402.26
+0.00%
MNDI.L ×157.88
$1402.26
+0.00%
NWG.L ×190.73
$1346.17
+0.00%
ACA.PA ×69.87
$1346.48
+0.00%
PHIA.AS ×59.20
$1346.18
+0.00%
BESI.AS ×6.70
$1240.09
+0.00%
ENR.DE ×8.06
$1215.28
+0.00%
SIE.DE ×8.94
$2245.98
+0.00%
MSLH.L ×673.48
$2310.98
+0.00%
SAP.DE ×5.97
$1076.55
+0.00%
Track Record
2 On Track · 1 Lagging
PositionConviction ThenReturn SinceVerdict
TTE.PA (2026-07-19)
7/10
+4.58%
ON TRACK
ASML.AS (2026-08-12)
7.5/10
-3.18%
LAGGING
ENR.DE (2026-08-06)
6.5/10
+6.50%
ON TRACK
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Penny Plays
Performance
|
Total Value
$95417.43
|
Cash
$84510.79
|
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
|
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
|
|
TWR
-4.58%
|
Sharpe
-3.53
|
Max DD
-4.58%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
BUY
PYPD
Intended Priority-Review PDUFA add — PM unreachable.
SELL
GOSS
Stop-loss still required (return ≤ −8%); PM unreachable — SELL not dispatched.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded for this book today — every position below is priced at cost/estimate, not a fresh mark.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
GOSS ×18577.85
$3755.55
+0.00%
PYPD ×859.73
$3593.88
+0.00%
STXS ×2738.06
$3557.21
+0.00%
Track Record
1 On Track · 1 Stopped Out
PositionConviction ThenReturn SinceVerdict
PYPD (2026-08-04)
7/10
+14.11%
ON TRACK
GOSS (2026-07-20)
6.5/10
-23.70%
STOPPED OUT
|
|
Anti-Fragile
Performance
|
Total Value
$100000.00
|
Cash
$100000.00
|
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
|
Realized P&L
$0.0000
|
|
TWR
+0.00%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
+0.00%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
|
|
Trend Follow
Performance
|
Total Value
$100000.00
|
Cash
$100000.00
|
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
|
Realized P&L
$0.0000
|
|
TWR
+0.00%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
+0.00%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
|
|
Commodities
Performance
|
Total Value
$100000.00
|
Cash
$61526.80
|
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
|
Realized P&L
$0.0000
|
|
TWR
+0.00%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
+0.00%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
BUY
USO
Intended energy ETF add on Hormuz premium — PM unreachable.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded for this book today — every position below is priced at cost/estimate, not a fresh mark.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
USO ×170.51
$21992.70
+0.00%
GLD ×30.10
$11738.20
+0.00%
CPER ×83.09
$3235.64
+0.00%
SLV ×26.87
$1506.66
+0.00%
PositionConviction ThenReturn SinceVerdict
USO (2026-08-11)
8/10
+1.01%
ON TRACK
GLD (2026-08-06)
7/10
+3.99%
ON TRACK
|
|
Crypto
Performance
|
Total Value
$100000.00
|
Cash
$69426.36
|
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
|
Realized P&L
$0.0000
|
|
TWR
+0.00%
|
Sharpe
N/A
|
Max DD
+0.00%
|
|
Allocation
|
Today's Moves
BUY
BTC-USD
Intended BTC add on +$137M ETF inflow flip — PM unreachable.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded for this book today — every position below is priced at cost/estimate, not a fresh mark.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.27
$17284.77
+0.00%
ETH-USD ×6.23
$11840.32
+0.00%
BTC ×0.02
$1448.55
+0.00%
PositionConviction ThenReturn SinceVerdict
BTC-USD (2026-08-11)
6.5/10
-1.18%
LAGGING
ETH-USD (2026-08-06)
6/10
-0.34%
LAGGING
|
30-day hit rate across all portfolios: +57.90%
|
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research before investing.
Morning Alpha • Generated Tue, 18 Aug 2026 09:24:35 GMT • info@gmc-works.com
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