market_pulse — Data Aggregator TLS handshake reset (data-aggregator-api.gmc-works.com) all run — prices from Yahoo chart/meta + CNBC/Reuters web cross-checks. Equity marks are Monday 2026-08-17 closes; VIX/futures/FX/commodity/crypto include Tuesday 2026-08-18 prints.
yesterday_retrospective — Aggregator history unavailable; regional/sector moves from Yahoo history + CNBC/Herald/Deutsche Bank recaps for Monday Aug 17.
commodities_outlook — Aggregator down — CL=F/BZ=F/GC=F from Yahoo; WTI web prints ~$85.3–85.6 vs Yahoo Aug-18 84.17 (~1.6%, within 2%). USO/GLD ETF marks use Yahoo meta (USO ~130.29, GLD ~405.49).
crypto_landscape — Aggregator down — BTC/ETH Yahoo 24h marks; ETF flows from Farside Investors Aug 17 table (+$137.3M BTC; +$5M ETH).
us_equity_ideas — Aggregator /price /fundamentals /news unreachable — prices Yahoo meta/Fri-Mon closes; catalysts from web search (HD IR, refining revisions, oil geopolitics).
penny_plays — Aggregator /sentiment /altdata unavailable — Social_Momentum/Institutional_Signal scored from web only. PYPD Yahoo ~$4.77.
forex_rebalancing — Aggregator /price /macro /predictions unreachable — EUR crosses from Yahoo; HY/policy context from FRED CSV (HY OAS 2.67 Aug 14) + web. Squawk-alert skipped.
risk_top5 — HY OAS from FRED graph CSV (2.67 on 2026-08-14); VIX/VIX3M from Yahoo; no live predictions endpoint.
risk_cover_playbook — Triggers computed from Yahoo/FRED web proxies; several market_internals omitted (SOFR, put/call, VIX9D) due to aggregator outage.
portfolio_reality_check — Portfolio Manager unreachable (connection reset to portfolio-manager.gmc-works.com) — no new trade dispatches this run. Performance/holdings carried from morning nl_2026-08-18_070901 with picks_reviewed returns refreshed vs Yahoo/web where possible. Intended BUYs recorded as dispatched:false.
GeneralThe Bottom Line 1 minIran/Hormuz is still the tape: Brent ~$91 and 30Y yields near multi-decade highs into Home Depot’s print, while Bitcoin ETF pipes just flipped back to +$137M inflows.
THE BOTTOM LINE
RISK-ON=
Iran/Hormuz is still the tape: Brent ~$91 and 30Y yields near multi-decade highs into Home Depot’s print, while Bitcoin ETF pipes just flipped back to +$137M inflows.
GeneralMarket Pulse 2 minOil and the long end still set the tape: Brent holds ~$91 and the 10-year sits near 4.73% while S&P futures trade ~7,728 (−0.5%) after Monday’s −0.52% cash close. VIX has jumped to ~15.9 fr…
MARKET PULSE
Oil and the long end still set the tape: Brent holds ~$91 and the 10-year sits near 4.73% while S&P futures trade ~7,728 (−0.5%) after Monday’s −0.52% cash close. VIX has jumped to ~15.9 from Friday’s 14.25 even as EUR/USD chops at 1.158 — stagflation-lite, not a clean risk-off. Watch Home Depot’s BMO print and 9am ET call for the consumer read that either confirms or fades Monday’s retail-sales hangover.
Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,745.06
yday 7,785.76
▼ -0.52%
NASDAQ Data
26,644.91
yday 26,729.16
▼ -0.32%
Dow Jones Data
53,459.78
yday 53,732.41
▼ -0.51%
Russell 2K Data
3,068.42
yday 3,068.42
▲ +0.51%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
4,446.70
yday 4,453.00
▲ +0.65%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data
85.31
yday 81.77
▲ +0.96%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
64,116.19
yday 63,530.00
▼ -0.60%
Ethereum Data
1,894.93
yday 1,899.63
▼ -0.90%
Rates
10Y Yield Data
4.73
yday 4.70
▲ +0.72%
Credit
HY OAS Data
2.67 (FRED 2026-08-14)
yday 2.71 %
calm
Volatility
VIX Data
15.86
yday 14.25
▲ +11.37%
VIX / VIX3M term structure Data
15.86 / 19.04 (contango)
watch
MOVE (bond vol) Data
75.63 (Aug 17 Yahoo)
watch
Dollar & FX
EUR/USD Data
1.16
yday 1.16
▲ +0.03%
DXY 5-session RoC Data
-0.4% (99.63 vs ~100.01 five sessions prior)
calm
Breadth
S&P vs recent high (breadth proxy) Data
-0.52% from Fri 7785.76; equal-weight lagged Monday (−0.92%)
• Trim high-beta discretionary and crowded AI/memory winners first
• Add crash hedges via SH/VIXY and barbell GLD+TLT
• Raise cash to ~15–20% across risk books until VIX term structure stops steepening into stress
AI0/4 hard triggers fired (VIX 15.9, curve still positive, HY OAS 2.67, S&P only −0.5% from Friday’s local high), so regime stays risk-on — but today’s named risks (Hormuz oil, 30Y yields, HD print) mean the ready checklist should emphasize energy-inflation hedges (GLD) over pure duration if triggers trip. Market-internals lean watch on vol (VIX up to 15.9 vs VIX3M 19.0 still contango) and gold/copper still geopolitics-colored rather than recession-colored.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 2 minMonday’s selloff was a geopolitics-plus-rates tape: the US-Iran MoU expired without extension, Brent jumped to ~$91, and the 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high near 5.31%, offsetting…
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Monday’s selloff was a geopolitics-plus-rates tape: the US-Iran MoU expired without extension, Brent jumped to ~$91, and the 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high near 5.31%, offsetting a semiconductor rally on Anthropic’s revenue print.
How Yesterday Unfolded
Asia Asia opened soft into the oil/geopolitics overhang and closed mixed-to-weaker into the US session, with risk appetite already fading before Wall Street’s open.
Europe Europe finished lower before the full US yield spike played out: Stoxx 600 −0.22%, DAX −0.38%, CAC 40 −0.66%, FTSE 100 −0.28% as energy importers digested higher oil.
US US closed with S&P 500 −0.52% at 7,745.06, Dow −0.51%, Nasdaq −0.32%; chips held up (PHLX Semiconductor +1.6%) on Anthropic >$11.5B Q2 revenue while energy led and breadth was poor (367 S&P decliners).
Growth/Tech ex-semis (XLK −0.40% Fri proxy; broad tech soft Monday) → Energy (XLE +1.39% Fri; Monday energy leadership on oil spike) · WTI +2.55% to ~$84.50 and Brent +2.65% to ~$90.87 Monday while major US indices fell ~0.3–0.5%
Hormuz/MoU-expiry supply premium redirected capital into energy while higher long-end yields compressed duration-sensitive multiples.
Equal-weight S&P / cyclicals ex-energy → AI semiconductors · Equal-weight S&P −0.92% vs PHLX Semiconductor +1.64%; MU/SNDK led
Anthropic’s revenue surge re-opened the AI-capex bid even as the macro tape was risk-off.
Key Drivers
US-Iran MoU expiry without extension — Trump said he would not extend the expiring memorandum; Iran signaled a more offensive posture, keeping Hormuz shipping risk in the price of oil.
30-year Treasury yield to ~5.31% (19-year high) — Oil-led inflation fears plus heavy issuance pushed the long end to levels last seen around 2007, pressuring equity valuations.
Anthropic Q2 revenue >$11.5B — Preliminary revenue at least 14× y/y with positive adjusted operating income lifted chipmakers and limited Nasdaq losses.
Bridge to Today
Today’s open hinges on whether Home Depot’s pre-market print confirms consumer fatigue and whether Brent holds above $91 as Iran keeps a fully-offensive posture.
Over the next session, HD is a binary consumer test: BMO Q2 print (consensus ~$4.73 EPS / ~$47B sales) and the 9am ET call will either reaffirm the flat-to-2% comps guide or confirm Monday’s soft-landing worry. Signal…
Fiscal Q2 2026 earnings before open Tue Aug 18 (IR webcast 9am ET)Street focus on comps vs Q1 +0.6% and GMS mix margin dragMonday retail-sales hangover still framing the consumer debate
Target
$365.00
Conviction 75%
Invalidation: Comps print negative and FY guide is cut on the Aug 18 call.
TradingView's price for HD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Into the rest of the week, XOM remains the liquid US equity proxy for a Hormuz supply premium while Brent holds the $91 area — expect relative outperformance vs the S&P as long as tanker risk stays in the headlines.…
Iran fully-offensive posture / MoU non-extension still live Aug 18Brent ~$91; WTI web ~$85+ TuesdayEnergy leadership Monday while S&P fell 0.5%
Target
$175.00
Conviction 75%
Invalidation: Brent closes below $88 for two sessions with Hormuz traffic normalizing.
TradingView's price for XOM. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next few weeks, VLO is the refining-margin expression of the same oil shock — gasoline >$4/gal and rising crack spreads have driven large upward EPS revisions (Zacks notes multi-estimate lifts into Aug 18).…
Aug 18 coverage: analysts lifting VLO EPS estimates on refining marginsQ2 2026 net income strength already printed; revisions still moving higherOil complex bid extending into Tuesday Asia
Target
$380.00
Conviction 70%
Invalidation: Crack spreads roll over and consensus FY EPS is cut >10% within two weeks.
TradingView's price for VLO. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 1 minTTE.PA BUY
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
TTE.PA↑
TotalEnergies SE
7.5
+1.25%
TTE.PACOMMODITYBUY🔥 3-issue streak↑
TotalEnergies SE • Energy
7.5/10Conviction
$76.88
▲ +1.25%
Into this week’s oil premium, TTE.PA remains the primary European integrated oil expression — Tuesday’s print ~€76.88 (+1.2% vs Monday) and the Aug 18 own-share purchase disclosure keep the buyback bid visible alongside…
Aug 18 regulatory announcement: TotalEnergies share repurchases Aug 10–14 (~€120M)Brent holds ~$91 on Iran/Hormuz risk TuesdayTTE.PA Tuesday Yahoo close/ path ~76.88 vs Monday 75.93
Target
$85.00
Conviction 75%
Invalidation: Brent back below $88 and TTE.PA loses €74 on a weekly close.
TradingView's price for TTE.PA. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 2 minPYPD BUY · INO WATCH
PENNY PLAYS
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
PYPDNEW
PolyPid Ltd.
6.5
+0.63%
INO↓
Inovio Pharmaceuticals
5
+5.50%
PYPDPENNYBUYNEW
PolyPid Ltd. • Health Care
6.5/10Conviction
$4.77
▲ +0.63%
In 3–6 months into the Nov 28, 2026 PDUFA, PYPD is a Priority-Review surgical-site-infection story with a dated FDA clock and Azurity commercialization capital already unlocked ($30M near-term milestones) — a classic…
Narrative
2/2
Catalyst
2/2
Balance sheet
1/2
Price suppression
1/2
Institutional
0.5/1
Social
0/1
FDA Priority Review PDUFA goal date Nov 28, 2026 for D-PLEX100Azurity partnership unlocked $30M upfront/near-term milestones after July 27 NDA acceptancePrice still sub-$5 (~$4.77) without a 30–40% 5–10 session spike
Target
$8.00
Invalidation: FDA issues a CRL / major amendment that pushes the decision past Q1 2027 without a clear path, or a…
PYPD between stop and target4.77
28
Stop on the left, target on the right. Red and green mark those ends only. The tick is the last price.
TradingView's price for PYPD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Scores 5.0/10 — narrative and Oct-30-ish INO-3107 PDUFA proximity are real, but the name already ripped from ~$0.77 to ~$1.09–1.15 in days (anti-late-mover), and balance-sheet/dilution risk keeps it below buy-tier.…
Narrative
1.5/2
Catalyst
1.5/2
Balance sheet
0.5/2
Price suppression
0.5/2
Institutional
0/1
Social
1/1
INO-3107 PDUFA-linked catalyst window cited into late Oct 2026Price already +40% in under a week — confirmation, not ground floor
Target
$1.80
Invalidation: Breaks back below $0.70 on volume without a dated FDA update.
INO between stop and target1.15
0.51.8
Stop on the left, target on the right. Red and green mark those ends only. The tick is the last price.
TradingView's price for INO. It is not the last print in this letter.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
INCREASE USD vs EUR — Nudge USD from neutral to a small seek vs EUR while 10Y ~4.73% and oil keep US nominal yields supported.
Conviction 50%
INCREASE JPY vs EUR — Small defensive JPY add vs EUR after Nikkei −2.54% and EURJPY ~184.8 into the oil shock.
Conviction 50%
Crypto
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minSpot Bitcoin ETFs flipped back to +$137.3M net inflows on Aug 17 (Fidelity FBTC +$111.9M) after three redemption sessions — the first clean institutional demand reset in a week. ETH ETF flo…
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Spot Bitcoin ETFs flipped back to +$137.3M net inflows on Aug 17 (Fidelity FBTC +$111.9M) after three redemption sessions — the first clean institutional demand reset in a week. ETH ETF flows were only +$5M, so the bid is BTC-led, not broad crypto risk-on.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
6.5
-0.60%
ETH-USD
Ethereum
5
-0.90%
BTC-USDBUY🔥 43-issue streak
Bitcoin
6.5/10Conviction
$64116.19
▼ -0.60%
Into the next 1–2 ETF-flow sessions, treat Monday’s +$137M rebound as the first evidence institutional pipes can refill after the Aug 12–14 redemption stretch — upgrade to BUY for a measured add, not a momentum chase.…
US spot BTC ETFs +$137.3M net on Aug 17 (Farside)Fidelity FBTC +$111.9M single-day inflowPrice holding ~$64.1k after Monday’s rebound from ~$62.8k
Conviction 65%
Invalidation: Weekly close below $60,000 or two consecutive sessions of >$100M aggregate BTC ETF outflows.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
ETH stays HOLD: Monday’s ETF bid was only +$5M while BTC took >96% of combined flows — no independent institutional confirmation yet. Need a multi-day ETH ETF inflow streak or a clear L2/DeFi TVL catalyst before sizing.
ETH spot ETFs +$5M Aug 17 (thin vs BTC)Price ~$1,895, still below Monday’s $1,912 print
Conviction 50%
Invalidation: Daily close below $1,750 on rising ETF outflows.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 3 minBrent holds the $91 handle on a fresh Hormuz strike narrative while gold chops under a firmer 10-year — energy remains the cleanest long, precious metals the hedge that needs a yield pause.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Brent holds the $91 handle on a fresh Hormuz strike narrative while gold chops under a firmer 10-year — energy remains the cleanest long, precious metals the hedge that needs a yield pause.
Oil + gold still both elevated vs early-August levels while DXY drifts near 99.6 — the pattern is a geopolitics premium, not a classic growth scare. If Brent…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
USO
WTI Crude (USO)
8.5
+2.91%
GLD
Gold (GLD)
6
+1.00%
CPER
Copper (CPER)
5
+0.40%
WTI Crude (USO)ENERGYBUY🔥 17-issue streak
USO
8.5/10Conviction
$130.29
▲ +2.91%
Over the next few sessions, expect the WTI/USO bid to persist while Hormuz crossings stay depressed and Iran keeps a fully-offensive posture — this is a supply-premium tape, not a demand spike. Goldman/JPMorgan still…
Iran signals fully-offensive posture after MoU expiry (Aug 17–18)Hormuz commodity vessel crossings only 6 on Monday vs ~11 10-day avgBrent holds ~$91; WTI web prints ~$85.3–85.6 Tuesday Asia
Conviction 85%
Invalidation: Brent sustains closes back below $88 with a confirmed rebound in Hormuz VLCC/LNG crossings.
TradingView's price for USO. It is not the last print in this letter.
Near-term, gold is fighting higher nominal yields and oil-led inflation fears — Tuesday spot slipped ~0.4% in Asia even after Monday’s safe-haven bid. Keep the geopolitical hedge, but do not add: the next catalyst is…
Tuesday gold soft on firmer Treasury yields (Reuters)Fed July FOMC minutes due Wednesday Aug 19Spot still ~$4,397–4,450 zone after Monday’s geopolitics bounce
Conviction 60%
Invalidation: GLD loses the $395 area on a sustained daily close while 10Y holds above 4.75%.
TradingView's price for GLD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Physical tightness (LME spot vs 3M backwardation briefly ~$545/t Monday) is real, but Tuesday’s HG=F dip to ~6.53 argues the macro tape is not yet confirming a growth-led copper breakout. Watch inventory/backwardation…
LME copper severe physical tightness / wide backwardation MondayHG=F Tuesday soft ~6.53 after flat Monday close
Conviction 50%
Invalidation: LME backwardation collapses below ~$100/t for a full week while HG=F loses $6.40.
TradingView's price for CPER. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 5 min30d hit rate 58%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech US
+2.34%
Anti-Fragile
+0.00%
Trend Follow
+0.00%
Named holdings. 43 smaller positions (12.31%) are off this picture.
Tech US
Performance
Total Value
$102335.42
Cash
$33643.45
P&L
$2335.42 (+2.34%)
Realized P&L
$-2664.87
TWR
+2.30%
Sharpe
1.03
Max DD
-2.39%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions67%
Cash33%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
HD
0.0000
—
Buy
XOM
0.0000
—
Buy
VLO
0.0000
—
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$9021.11
+5.9%
XOM ×125
$20126.72
+5.8%
UNH ×8.49
$3359.84
-7.2%
INTC ×14.08
$1457.21
-76.4%
MSFT ×11.91
$5722.17
+18.0%
SBUX ×11.63
$1254.70
+1.2%
CBRE ×8.29
$1226.80
-1.0%
AMZN ×4.38
$1145.22
-3.8%
+16 more holdings
Track Record
6 On Track · 4 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
RDDT (2026-08-15)
8/10
-7.6%
Lagging
HD (2026-08-17)
7.5/10
-0.3%
Lagging
XOM (2026-08-18)
7.5/10
+0.8%
On Track
MU (2026-08-13)
7/10
+7.7%
On Track
AMAT (2026-08-11)
7.5/10
+0.7%
On Track
MSFT (2026-08-02)
8/10
+18.0%
On Track
MRVL (2026-08-05)
7/10
+198.5%
On Track
UNH (2026-07-19)
7/10
-7.2%
Lagging
PLTR (2026-08-09)
7/10
-7.5%
Lagging
INTC (2026-07-30)
7/10
+18.8%
On Track
Euro Only
Performance
Total Value
$116239.42
Cash
$49648.89
P&L
$16239.42 (+16.24%)
Realized P&L
$-1870.28
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
TTE.PA
0.0000
—
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded for this book today — every position below is priced at cost/estimate, not a fresh mark.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×2.28
$21594.47
+0.0%
TTE.PA ×310
$22786.63
+0.0%
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
+0.0%
KER.PA ×5.3
$1553.28
+0.0%
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
+0.0%
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
+0.0%
GLE.PA ×17.29
$1402.26
+0.0%
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
+0.0%
+8 more holdings
Track Record
2 On Track · 1 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
TTE.PA (2026-07-19)
7/10
+4.6%
On Track
ASML.AS (2026-08-12)
7.5/10
-3.2%
Lagging
ENR.DE (2026-08-06)
6.5/10
+6.5%
On Track
Penny Plays
Performance
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$84510.79
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
PYPD
0.0000
—
Sell
GOSS
0.0000
—
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded for this book today — every position below is priced at cost/estimate, not a fresh mark.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578
$3755.55
+0.0%
PYPD ×860
$3593.88
+0.0%
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
+0.0%
Track Record
1 On Track · 1 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
PYPD (2026-08-04)
7/10
+14.1%
On Track
GOSS (2026-07-20)
6.5/10
-23.7%
Stopped Out
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$100000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Cash100%
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Trend Follow
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$100000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
TWR
+0.00%
Sharpe
N/A
Max DD
+0.00%
Sortino
N/A
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Cash100%
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Commodities
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$61526.80
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
USO
0.0000
—
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded for this book today — every position below is priced at cost/estimate, not a fresh mark.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×171
$21992.70
+0.0%
GLD ×30.1
$11738.20
+0.0%
CPER ×83.09
$3235.64
+0.0%
SLV ×26.87
$1506.66
+0.0%
Track Record
2 On Track
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
USO (2026-08-11)
8/10
+1.0%
On Track
GLD (2026-08-06)
7/10
+4.0%
On Track
Crypto
Performance
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$69426.36
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
BTC-USD
0.0000
—
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded for this book today — every position below is priced at cost/estimate, not a fresh mark.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.2664
$17284.77
+0.0%
ETH-USD ×6.23
$11840.32
+0.0%
BTC ×0.0223
$1448.55
+0.0%
Track Record
2 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BTC-USD (2026-08-11)
6.5/10
-1.2%
Lagging
ETH-USD (2026-08-06)
6/10
-0.3%
Lagging
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +57.90%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Penny-stock risk: very low-priced, thinly traded securities can be illiquid, volatile and easy to manipulate. Spreads can be wide, exits may be impossible at the quoted price, and you can lose your entire investment. Ideas in this category are diligence starting points, not a buy list.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
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