MORNING ALPHA

Daily Financial Newsletter

Tuesday, September 8, 2026 · 12:01:28 · archived issue

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EN FR

⚠ Data quality: DEGRADED

market_pulse — US cash marks still Fri 2026-09-04 (Labor Day Mon; Tue cash not open at write). WTI/gold/FX/crypto/Asia Tue are live. DTWEXBGS is weekly (2026-08-28). FRED tiles are single-observation (no delta_bp).

yesterday_retrospective — GET /movers returned 400 — movers[] omitted. Nikkei hist last Fri 65020 vs live 65269; Reuters Tue session −1.70% vs Monday is the session move used in the writeup.

us_equity_ideas — FRO/CRM marks are Fri Sep 4 closes; US cash still shut. Sentiment/13F empty — scorecard flow factors null.

eu_equity_ideas — eu_fundamentals_gap — NDX1.DE aggregator fundamentals empty. Price cross-check: agg Fri close 36.76 vs MarketScreener/BofA-day web ~€40.2; published web 40.20.

penny_plays — Screener empty for category=penny — fell back to continuity watchlist (BFRI PDUFA Sep 28; OTLK HCPCS filing-by Oct 1).

forex_rebalancing — FX /price history stale (ends 2026-08-29) and some /price spots returned Stooq JS; EURUSD 1.1616 from Yahoo live. USDJPY web/Reuters: yen through 154.

commodities_outlook — USO last ETF print Fri 141.96; WEAT hist last Sep 2 27.86 (stale). Book already loaded (USO/COPX/CPER/WEAT) — no new BUY. WTI live 94.08 used for the energy thesis, not mixed into the USO price field.

crypto_landscape — BTC/ETH already held — BUY is no-add. Spot ETF flow prints still through Fri Sep 4 (Labor Day gap).

trend_follow — No universe name has 200 closes (hist ~52–58 rows) — sma200 null, 200-day test fails, zero BUY. SMH EXIT on Sep 1 close 545.22 vs sma50 580.29 (hist missing Sep 4). Prior SMH SELL still PENDING-reserved since Aug 19.

risk_cover_playbook — HY OAS from FRED is 2.65 (265 bp, 2026-09-03); morning run used 310. Put/call omitted (no feed). Sector pairwise corr skipped (partial hist).

portfolio_reality_check — Euro/Penny/AF/Trend/Commodities/Crypto books all_prices_estimated. INTC −78% is a cost-basis outlier (avg 439 vs px 95.8) — ignored for stop-loss. SMH EXIT may stay PENDING.

concept_spotlight — Weekday skip — Pulse reused VIX/HY OAS/2s10s already in the 7-day window (backwardation 09-08 AM, contango 09-07, Fed funds 09-06).

portfolio_reality_check — NDX1.DE price rejected by Portfolio Manager's plausibility guard — see trade history

THE BOTTOM LINE

RISK-ON

Mixed tape: SPX −1.17% from ATH, VIX 14.53, WTI 94.08 — buy FRO+CRM and NDX1.DE, HOLD USO, EXIT SMH.

Today's Top Picks

FRO

7/10

CRM

7/10

NDX1.DE

6.8/10

BTC-USD

6.5/10

USO

6/10

Biggest Risk

September FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥3.75–4.00%)

Probability: High • Impact: High

Portfolio Snapshot

All Portfolios, Combined: $717703.81

Blended P&L: +3.12% • 30d Hit Rate: +92.00%

YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE

Tuesday Asia completed a Hormuz/yen session: Reuters had the Nikkei −1.70% as Brent held >$97 and USD/JPY broke through 154, while US cash still sat on Friday’s 7718.60 / VIX 14.53 Labor Day marks.

Bridge to Today
Into ECB Thu and CPI Fri, watch whether US cash opens by fading Asia’s oil/yen shock or by validating the Hormuz premium already in WTI $94 / Brent $99.

COMMODITIES OUTLOOK

Hold USO at 141.96 (Fri) while WTI 94.08 / Brent 98.63 keep the Hormuz premium; REDUCE WEAT 27.86 as Black Sea peace hopes hit grains — no new BUY in an already-loaded book.

Oil bid + wheat fade with DGS10 4.77 and weekly DTWEXBGS 118.75 is an inflationary-boom energy sleeve, not a broad commodity smash: if Hormuz traffic stays ~10…

Ticker	Name	Conviction	1d
USO	United States Oil Fund	6	+0.57%
WEAT	Teucrium Wheat Fund	5	-0.50%

United States Oil Fund ENERGY HOLD 🔥 8-issue streak

USO

6/10 Conviction

$141.96

▲ +0.57%

Keep the existing USO lot through CPI: WTI 94.08 (+2.84% vs Fri 91.48) and Brent 98.63 price Hormuz + the OPEC+ Oct hold — do not add; the book already owns USO/BNO/UGA.

Hormuz traffic lowest since May; OPEC+ OctNo COT/positioning print this run — factorWTI 94.08 +2.84% vs Fri 91.48; Brent 98.63Oil-as-inflation-impulse still the tape inUSO 141.96 Fri; already maxed in the commo

Fundamentals		6/10
Sentiment / flow		—
Catalyst		7/10
Narrative		6/10
Technicals		5/10

WTI CL=F 94.08 Tue vs 91.48 Fri Brent BZ=F 98.63; Reuters Brent >$97 Kpler Hormuz transit lowest since May (~10 ships/day)

Invalidation: WTI sustains a close back below $88 with Hormuz transit normalizing above 20 ships/day.

Sources: Reuters — wrap / Brent >$97 · Iran Intl — Hormuz transit

Teucrium Wheat Fund AGRICULTURE REDUCE

WEAT

5/10 Conviction

$27.86

▼ -0.50%

Fade wheat into Black Sea peace headlines: Fastmarkets Sep 7 cut grains on profit-taking — REDUCE/WATCH the existing WEAT stub rather than add another ag lot.

Black Sea peace hopes loosen the grains baNo grains positioning feed this run — gap Fastmarkets Sep 7: wheat futures down on pAg is the idiosyncratic fade while energy WEAT 27.86 (Sep 2 print); off the 28.00 lo

Fundamentals		4/10
Sentiment / flow		—
Catalyst		6/10
Narrative		5/10
Technicals		5/10

Fastmarkets Sep 7: wheat futures fall on Black Sea peace hopes WEAT last print 27.86 (Sep 2; hist stale vs USO)

Invalidation: WEAT closes back above 29.50 or a confirmed Black Sea export shutdown reverses the peace tape.

Sources: Fastmarkets — wheat commentary Sep 7

Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.

MARKET PULSE

Mixed tape

UST 3y

4.41

UST 10y

4.77

UST 30y

5.25

Eff. fed funds

3.63

USD broad (weekly)

118.7479

VIX (FRED)

14.32

HY OAS

2.65

10Y-2Y

0.41

DXY (spot)

98.96

DGS10 4.77 vs DFF 3.63, VIX 14.53, HY OAS 2.65: equities are still near the ATH while crude’s +2.8% Hormuz premium is the inflation tension. Weekly USD broad 118.75 (Aug 28) is a different clock than the daily VIX.

S&P 500

7718.6

▼ -0.38%

NASDAQ

26506.99

▼ -0.29%

Dow Jones

53414.25

▼ -0.51%

Russell 2K

2975.65

▲ +0.25%

VIX

14.53

▲ +1.47%

EUR/USD

1.1616

▼ -0.02%

Gold

4438.3

▼ -0.86%

Oil (WTI)

94.08

▲ +2.84%

Bitcoin

78320

▼ -1.74%

10Y Yield

4.784

▲ +0.00%

% from 52w

-1.17%

% from ATH

-1.17%

% advancing

53.3%

% > SMA200

69.5%

SPY−RSP 1d

+0.46%

SPX −1.17% from the Aug 14 ATH (7718.60 Fri) with 69.5% of members above the 200-day; the live tell is WTI 94.08 (+2.84%) against a still-sub-15 VIX.

US EQUITY IDEAS

Ticker	Name	Conviction	1d
FRO	Frontline plc	7	+1.54%
CRM	Salesforce, Inc.	7	-1.97%

FRO COMMODITY BUY

Frontline plc • Energy

7/10 Conviction

$46.12

▲ +1.54%

Express Hormuz via tankers, not another integrated: FRO 46.12 Fri already held — add ~2% cash as transit stays ~10 ships/day into CPI.

Hormuz tankerAlready heldFri mark 46.12

Fundamentals		7/10
Sentiment / flow		—
Catalyst		8/10
Narrative		7/10
Technicals		6/10

52-week range

Kpler: Hormuz transit lowest since May (~10 ships/day) WTI 94.08 / Brent 98.63 live Tue Anti-rep vs this morning’s CVX integrated-oil BUY

Target

$54.00

Invalidation: FRO weekly close back below 41 with Hormuz transit normalizing.

Sources: Iran Intl — Hormuz transit / tankers · Reuters — Brent >$97 wrap

CRM GROWTH BUY

Salesforce, Inc. • Information Technology

7/10 Conviction

$259.23

▼ -1.97%

Software re-rate on Agentforce + $1.6B VA: CRM 259.23 (PE ~33, ROE 12.6%) is the fresh US name vs this morning’s CVX/JPM.

Agentforce + VA $1.6BPE ~33Fri mark

Fundamentals		7/10
Sentiment / flow		—
Catalyst		8/10
Narrative		7/10
Technicals		6/10

52-week range

Motley Fool Sep 7: Q2 beat, Agentforce attach, $1.6B VA deal Anti-rep vs CVX/JPM published at 09:16

Mkt Cap

$240.8B

P/E

33.2

Target

$295.00

Invalidation: Weekly close back below 240 or a guide-down on Agentforce attach.

Sources: Fool — Salesforce AI agent / VA Sep 7

Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.

EU EQUITY IDEAS

Ticker	Name	Conviction	1d
NDX1.DE	Nordex SE	6.8	+9.36%

NDX1.DE GROWTH BUY

Nordex SE • Industrials

6.8/10 Conviction

$40.20

▲ +9.36%

BofA Buy / €54 (Sep 7) is the 48h-fresh EU name: use web €40.20, not the stale agg 36.76, and size a single add vs this morning’s AIR.PA/SAN.MC.

BofA PT €54Web €40.20 vs agg 36.76Anti-rep vs AIR.PA

Fundamentals		6/10
Sentiment / flow		7/10
Catalyst		8/10
Narrative		7/10
Technicals		6/10

52-week range

BofA Neutral→Buy, PT €54 on Sep 7; +9.3% to ~€40.2 n-tv: Barclays Energy & Power Conference appearance Tue >800 MW US orders since June (Iowa manufacturing)

Target

$54.00

Invalidation: Weekly close back below €36 or BofA thesis reversed on a missed US order print.

Sources: MarketScreener — Nordex +9.3% / BofA €54 · n-tv — Nordex >€40 / Barclays conference

Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.

PENNY PLAYS

Ticker	Name	Conviction	1d
BFRI	Biofrontera Inc.	5	+6.62%
OTLK	Outlook Therapeutics, Inc.	4	+2.77%

BFRI PENNY WATCH 🔥 12-issue streak

Biofrontera Inc. • Health Care

5/10 Conviction

$1.61

▲ +6.62%

Multi-Bagger 5.0 — Ameluz sNDA PDUFA ~Sep 28 is real, but dilution risk keeps this watchlist-only at $1.61.

PDUFA Sep 28Watchlist 5.0

Fundamentals		5/10
Sentiment / flow		—
Catalyst		8/10
Narrative		6/10
Technicals		6/10

Ameluz PDT sNDA PDUFA targeted ~Sep 28 2026 Q2 2026: +33% revenue growth; screener still empty

Target

$3.00

Invalidation: PDUFA delayed past Q4 2026 or a CRL/financing that collapses cash.

Sources: BioSpace — BFRI Q2 +33% / PDUFA Sep 28 · Seeking Alpha — PDUFA Sep 28

OTLK PENNY WATCH 🔥 12-issue streak

Outlook Therapeutics, Inc. • Health Care

4/10 Conviction

$0.6670

▲ +2.77%

Multi-Bagger 4.0 — LYTENAVA is approved, but the HCPCS filing-by Oct 1 is still the reimbursement gate; watchlist-only at $0.667.

HCPCS by Oct 1Watchlist 4.0

Fundamentals		4/10
Sentiment / flow		—
Catalyst		7/10
Narrative		5/10
Technicals		3/10

HCPCS filing targeted by October 1, 2026 US launch still pointed at late 2026 pending coding

Target

$2.00

Invalidation: HCPCS delay past Oct or launch guidance pushed into 2027.

Sources: Aktiencheck — LYTENAVA HCPCS hurdle · Stocks Today — HCPCS filing by Oct 1

Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.

Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.

FOREX REBALANCING RADAR

Base currency: EUR

Currency vs EUR	Short-term	Medium-term	Long-term
USD 🔥12	SEEK (6)	SEEK (4)	NEUTRAL (1)
Sources: Reuters — wrap Sep 8
JPY 🔥11	AVOID (-5)	AVOID (-3)	NEUTRAL (0)
Sources: FXStreet — yen 6.5-month high / hawkish BoJ · Reuters — yen strongest since Feb
GBP 🔥6	NEUTRAL (0)	NEUTRAL (0)	NEUTRAL (1)

CHF 🔥3	NEUTRAL (1)	NEUTRAL (1)	NEUTRAL (2)

Suggested rebalancing actions

INCREASE USD vs EUR — Keep overweighting USD vs EUR into CPI/FOMC — real-rate gap still favors the dollar.

Conviction60%

Sources: Reuters — wrap Sep 8

DECREASE JPY vs EUR — Do not chase yen through 154 — hike odds and MoF firepower argue for fading the surge vs EUR.

Conviction50%

Sources: FXStreet — yen / BoJ

HOLD GBP vs EUR — No fresh UK catalyst — leave GBP unchanged vs EUR.

Conviction40%

HOLD CHF vs EUR — CHF stays residual ballast, not an active add into Thursday’s ECB.

Conviction40%

TOP 5 RISKS RIGHT NOW

#	Risk	Probability	Impact	Trend
1	September FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥3.75–4.00%)	High	High	Stable
2	Hormuz escalation re-accelerates and turns oil into a growth shock	Medium	High	Escalating
3	USD/JPY air-pocket morphs into disorderly MoF/BoJ policy response	Medium	High	Escalating
4	ECB hawkish pause risk — markets price 2.50% but hear 2.75% guidance	Medium	Medium	Stable
5	French fiscal / OAT–Bund widening becomes a euro-area political shock	Medium	Medium	New

Watch: CPI Fri Sep 11

CRASH / BEAR-MARKET COVER PLAYBOOK

Regime: RISK-ON

VIX	14.53 / 25	Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread	0.41 / -0.2	Not Triggered
HY OAS (bp)	265 / 450	Not Triggered
SPX drawdown from ATH (%)	1.1704 / 8	Not Triggered

CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE

BTC 78320 (−1.74% vs Mon) and ETH 2480 keep the BUY/no-add stance: week-ended-Sep-4 spot ETFs still +$987M / +$215M, but both coins are already sized.

Ticker	Name	Conviction	1d
BTC-USD	Bitcoin	6.5	-1.74%
ETH-USD	Ethereum	6	-1.04%

BTC-USD BUY 🔥 6-issue streak

Bitcoin

6.5/10 Conviction

$78320.00

▼ -1.74%

Keep BTC as the core crypto sleeve: ETF +$987M week-ended Sep 4 still supports BUY, but the lot is already on the book — no-add.

On-chain/hash metrics not pulled — fundameSpot BTC ETFs +$986.9M week ended Sep 4 (3ETF bid still the institutional catalyst iDigital gold vs oil-shock inflation — keepBTC 78320 Tue −1.74% vs Mon 79705; still a

Fundamentals		—
Sentiment / flow		7/10
Catalyst		7/10
Narrative		7/10
Technicals		5/10

Spot BTC ETFs +$986.9M week ended Sep 4 FOMC Sep 16 as the next vol event

Invalidation: Weekly close back below 72000 with a week of net ETF outflows.

Sources: Altcoin Buzz — BTC ETF inflows Sep 4 week

ETH-USD BUY 🔥 5-issue streak

Ethereum

6/10 Conviction

$2480.30

▼ -1.04%

Keep ETH as the liquid second sleeve: +$215M ETF week is supportive but slower than BTC — BUY/no-add, no SOL/XRP chase.

No ETH staking/TVL pull this run — fundameSpot ETH ETFs +$215M week ended Sep 4 — slSecond-beta to BTC ETF tape; no new protocKeep ETH as the liquid alt sleeve, not a fETH 2480.3 Tue −1.04% vs Sep 6 2506.3.

Fundamentals		—
Sentiment / flow		6/10
Catalyst		6/10
Narrative		6/10
Technicals		6/10

Spot ETH ETFs +$215M week ended Sep 4

Invalidation: Weekly close back below 2200 with ETF outflows for two weeks.

Sources: Altcoin Buzz — ETH ETF inflows Sep 4 week

Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.

TREND FOLLOW

Zero new BUYs: no name has 200 closes so sma200 is null. SMH EXITs (545.22 < sma50 580.29). Hold XLE/XLV/XBI/XLB — 7/18 still above the 50-day.

7 of 18 universe names close above their 50-day (XLK, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLB, XLC, XBI) — same narrow tape as the morning run, and still no 200-day confirmation.

Ticker	Name	Conviction	1d
SMH	VanEck Semiconductor ETF	3	-2.05%
XLE	Energy Select Sector SPDR	6	-1.60%
XLV	Health Care Select Sector SPDR	5	-0.87%
XBI	SPDR S&P Biotech ETF	5	+0.55%
XLB	Materials Select Sector SPDR	5	-0.96%

SMH SEMICONDUCTORS EXIT 🔥 23-issue streak

VanEck Semiconductor ETF

3/10 Conviction

$545.22

▼ -2.05%

Hard EXIT: Sep 1 close 545.22 is below the 50-day (~580). Re-send the SELL; the Aug 19 order is still PENDING-reserved.

Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo 200-day; EXIT is the mandate, not a catRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s545.22 vs sma50 580.29 — rule broken.

Fundamentals		—
Sentiment / flow		—
Catalyst		3/10
Narrative		—
Technicals		3/10

Close ≤ sma50 is the mandate exit — not a discretionary fade

Invalidation: Daily close back above the 50-day (~580) would re-qualify, not a reason to hold now.

XLE ENERGY HOLD 🔥 23-issue streak

Energy Select Sector SPDR

6/10 Conviction

$64.06

▼ -1.60%

HOLD the energy sleeve: 64.06 is +9.7% vs the 50-day and +8.9 pp vs SPY/20d, but sma200 is missing so this is not a fresh BUY.

Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sOil shock supports RS; not a 200-day BUY.Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s64.06 vs sma50 58.37 (+9.7%).

Fundamentals		—
Sentiment / flow		—
Catalyst		5/10
Narrative		—
Technicals		7/10

WTI 94.08 Hormuz premium keeps energy RS bid

Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~58.37).

Sources: Reuters — Brent >$97

XLV HEALTH CARE HOLD 🔥 22-issue streak

Health Care Select Sector SPDR

5/10 Conviction

$171.45

▼ -0.87%

HOLD: 171.45 is still above the 50-day; no 200-day confirmation so no add.

Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo dated health-care catalyst; hold only.Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s171.45 vs sma50 163.12 (+5.1%).

Fundamentals		—
Sentiment / flow		—
Catalyst		4/10
Narrative		—
Technicals		6/10

Rules-based hold — still above sma50

Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~163.12).

XBI BIOTECHNOLOGY HOLD 🔥 22-issue streak

SPDR S&P Biotech ETF

5/10 Conviction

$163.40

▲ +0.55%

HOLD: best 20d RS in the held book (+11 pp vs SPY) but sma200 null blocks a BUY.

Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRS is the tape, not a dated catalyst.Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s163.40 vs sma50 156.83; +11 pp vs SPY/20d.

Fundamentals		—
Sentiment / flow		—
Catalyst		4/10
Narrative		—
Technicals		6/10

Relative-strength hold vs SPY, not a new add

Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~156.83).

XLB MATERIALS HOLD 🔥 22-issue streak

Materials Select Sector SPDR

5/10 Conviction

$52.44

▼ -0.96%

HOLD: barely above the 50-day (+1.4%); copper helps the narrative but the rule is still HOLD, not BUY.

Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sCopper firms the tape; no 200-day BUY.Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s52.44 vs sma50 51.71 — marginal hold.

Fundamentals		—
Sentiment / flow		—
Catalyst		4/10
Narrative		—
Technicals		5/10

HG=F 6.7785 live — materials RS modest

Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~51.71).

Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.

WHAT'S COMING UP

2026-09-10	ECB rate decision (consensus +25 bp to 2.50%) · risk_top5 Sources: Reuters — ECB Sep 3
2026-09-11	US CPI (pre-FOMC) · risk_top5
2026-09-16	FOMC decision / dots · risk_top5
2026-09-17	BoJ policy meeting starts · forex_rebalancing Sources: FXStreet — BoJ hike odds
2026-09-18	BoJ policy decision · risk_top5
2026-09-28	BFRI Ameluz PDUFA · penny_plays
2026-10-01	OTLK HCPCS filing target · penny_plays

PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK

P&L Across Portfolios

Tech-US

+1.58%

Euro-only

+21.09%

Penny-Plays

-4.58%

Anti-Fragile

+0.00%

Trend-follow

-0.38%

Commodities

+0.00%

Crypto

+0.00%

Tech-US

Performance

Equity vs SPY

Drawdown

Total Value

$101581.71

Cash

$12483.46

P&L

$1581.71 (+1.58%)

Realized P&L

$-3181.65

TWR

+1.79%

Sharpe

0.41

Max DD

-2.39%

Sortino

1.06

Calmar

5.53

Ann. return

+13.24%

Beta vs SPY

N/A

Allocation

Positions88%

Cash12%

Today's Moves

Action	Ticker	Qty	Status
Buy	FRO	5.4137	pending
Buy	CRM	0.963	pending

Current Holdings

Position	Value	Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.932100000000002	$8977.99	+5.3%
XOM ×128.82189999999997	$20543.23	+4.3%
UNH ×8.4926	$3372.75	-6.8%
INTC ×14.0807	$1348.93	-78.2%
MSFT ×11.9125	$5952.68	+22.8%
SBUX ×11.6262	$1214.59	-2.0%
CBRE ×8.2914	$1225.88	-1.1%
AMZN ×5.952707	$1538.83	-4.3%

+41 more holdings

Track Record

8 On Track · 2 Lagging

Position	Conviction Then	Return Since	Verdict
RTX (2026-09-05)	7.5/10	+0.0%	On Track
APH (2026-09-05)	7.5/10	+0.0%	On Track
SNOW (2026-09-04)	7.5/10	-5.4%	Lagging
HOOD (2026-09-04)	7/10	-2.1%	Lagging
PSX (2026-09-07)	7/10	+0.0%	On Track
ADBE (2026-09-07)	6.5/10	+0.0%	On Track
CVX (2026-09-08)	7/10	+0.0%	On Track
JPM (2026-09-08)	6.5/10	+0.0%	On Track
FRO (2026-09-08)	7/10	+14.1%	On Track
CRM (2026-09-08)	7/10	+2.9%	On Track

Euro-only

Performance

Equity vs SPY

Drawdown

Total Value

$121086.29

Cash

$20335.28

P&L

$21086.29 (+21.09%)

Realized P&L

$-42835.98

TWR

+21.09%

Sharpe

1.52

Max DD

-15.84%

Sortino

3.21

Calmar

17.89

Ann. return

+283.41%

Beta vs SPY

N/A

Allocation

Positions83%

Cash17%

Today's Moves

Action	Ticker	Qty	Status
Buy	NDX1.DE	10.13	—

Current Holdings

⚠ Live marks unavailable for every holding — priced at cost/last estimate, not a fresh quote.

Position	Value	Unrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.470171	$23967.39	—
TTE.PA ×363.74981399999996	$26944.15	—
UNA.AS ×48.4996	$2832.95	—
RR.L ×101.296	$1460.08	—
VIE.PA ×48.5044	$1430.88	—
GLE.PA ×17.2905	$1402.26	—
MNDI.L ×157.8766	$1402.26	—
NWG.L ×190.7298	$1346.17	—

+34 more holdings

Track Record

8 On Track

Position	Conviction Then	Return Since	Verdict
IVG.MI (2026-09-05)	7.5/10	+0.0%	On Track
PUB.PA (2026-09-04)	7/10	+0.0%	On Track
DTE.DE (2026-09-04)	7/10	+0.0%	On Track
TEF.MC (2026-09-07)	7/10	+0.0%	On Track
EUROB.AT (2026-09-07)	7/10	+0.0%	On Track
AIR.PA (2026-09-08)	7/10	+0.0%	On Track
SAN.MC (2026-09-08)	6.5/10	+0.0%	On Track
NDX1.DE (2026-09-08)	6.8/10	+0.0%	On Track

Penny-Plays

Performance

Equity vs SPY

Drawdown

Total Value

$95417.43

Cash

$81164.16

P&L

$-4582.57 (-4.58%)

Realized P&L

$-4582.57

TWR

-4.58%

Sharpe

-2.88

Max DD

-4.58%

Sortino

-2.86

Calmar

-6.13

Ann. return

-28.07%

Beta vs SPY

N/A

Allocation

Positions15%

Cash85%

Today's Moves

Action	Ticker	Qty	Status
Hold	BFRI	0	—
Hold	OTLK	0	—

Current Holdings

⚠ Live marks unavailable for every holding — priced at cost/last estimate, not a fresh quote.

Position	Value	Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×18577.8497	$3755.55	—
PYPD ×1564.2640000000001	$6940.50	—
STXS ×2738.0584	$3557.21	—

Anti-Fragile

Performance

Equity vs SPY

Drawdown

Total Value

$100000.00

Cash

$35000.00

P&L

$0.0000 (+0.00%)

Realized P&L

$0.0000

TWR

N/A

Sharpe

N/A

Max DD

N/A

Sortino

-15.87

Calmar

N/A

Ann. return

+0.00%

Beta vs SPY

N/A

Allocation

Positions65%

Cash35%

Today's Moves

Action	Ticker	Status
Hold	GLD	—
Hold	IEF	—
Hold	DBC	—
Hold	SPLV	—

Current Holdings

⚠ Live marks unavailable for every holding — priced at cost/last estimate, not a fresh quote.

Position	Value	Unrealized P&L
GLD ×61.6538	$25000.00	—
IEF ×107.7122	$10000.00	—
DBC ×654.4503	$20000.00	—
SPLV ×132.0306	$10000.00	—

Trend-follow

Performance

Equity vs SPY

Drawdown

Total Value

$99618.38

Cash

$75717.93

P&L

$-381.62 (-0.38%)

Realized P&L

$-381.62

TWR

-0.38%

Sharpe

-10.75

Max DD

-0.38%

Sortino

-8.96

Calmar

-6.94

Ann. return

-2.65%

Beta vs SPY

N/A

Allocation

Positions24%

Cash76%

Today's Moves

Action	Ticker	Qty	Status
Sell	SMH	5.0341	pending
Hold	XLE	0	—
Hold	XLV	0	—
Hold	XBI	0	—
Hold	XLB	0	—

Current Holdings

⚠ Live marks unavailable for every holding — priced at cost/last estimate, not a fresh quote.

Position	Value	Unrealized P&L
XLE ×87.857185	$5539.52	—
SMH ×5.0341	$2990.61	—
XLV ×30.272433999999997	$5207.77	—
XBI ×31.999615	$5207.77	—
XLB ×93.528615	$4954.78	—

Commodities

Performance

Equity vs SPY

Drawdown

Total Value

$100000.00

Cash

$28966.37

P&L

$0.0000 (+0.00%)

Realized P&L

$0.0000

TWR

N/A

Sharpe

N/A

Max DD

N/A

Sortino

-15.87

Calmar

N/A

Ann. return

+0.00%

Beta vs SPY

N/A

Allocation

Positions71%

Cash29%

Today's Moves

Action	Ticker	Qty	Status
Hold	USO	0	—
Hold	WEAT	0	—

Current Holdings

⚠ Live marks unavailable for every holding — priced at cost/last estimate, not a fresh quote.

Position	Value	Unrealized P&L
USO ×202.47532300000003	$26216.50	—
GLD ×30.1042	$11738.20	—
CPER ×135.999	$5372.73	—
SLV ×84.483012	$4999.97	—
PPLT ×66.6295	$1111.38	—
BNO ×35.136114	$1850.57	—
URA ×23.158793	$1066.93	—
UGA ×26.775539	$3377.87	—

+11 more holdings

Track Record

5 On Track

Position	Conviction Then	Return Since	Verdict
PPLT (2026-09-05)	7/10	+0.0%	On Track
URA (2026-09-05)	7/10	+0.0%	On Track
USO (2026-09-02)	6/10	+0.0%	On Track
SLX (2026-09-07)	6.5/10	+0.0%	On Track
COPX (2026-09-08)	7/10	+0.0%	On Track

Crypto

Performance

Equity vs SPY

Drawdown

Total Value

$100000.00

Cash

$33371.62

P&L

$0.0000 (+0.00%)

Realized P&L

$0.0000

TWR

N/A

Sharpe

N/A

Max DD

N/A

Sortino

-15.87

Calmar

N/A

Ann. return

+0.00%

Beta vs SPY

N/A

Allocation

Positions67%

Cash33%

Today's Moves

Action	Ticker	Qty	Status
Hold	BTC-USD	0	—
Hold	ETH-USD	0	—

Current Holdings

⚠ Live marks unavailable for every holding — priced at cost/last estimate, not a fresh quote.

Position	Value	Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5381599999999999	$34014.55	—
ETH-USD ×14.905437	$28949.67	—
SOL-USD ×26.813729000000002	$2795.91	—
XRP-USD ×628.433555	$868.24	—

Track Record

2 On Track

Position	Conviction Then	Return Since	Verdict
BTC-USD (2026-09-04)	7.5/10	+0.0%	On Track
ETH-USD (2026-09-05)	6.5/10	+0.0%	On Track

30-day hit rate across all portfolios: +92.00%

This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research before investing.

Morning Alpha • Generated Tue, 08 Sep 2026 10:01:28 GMT • info@gmc-works.com