market_pulse — US cash marks still Fri 2026-09-04 (Labor Day Mon; Tue cash not open at write). WTI/gold/FX/crypto/Asia Tue are live. DTWEXBGS is weekly (2026-08-28). FRED tiles are single-observation (no delta_bp).
yesterday_retrospective — GET /movers returned 400 — movers[] omitted. Nikkei hist last Fri 65020 vs live 65269; Reuters Tue session −1.70% vs Monday is the session move used in the writeup.
us_equity_ideas — FRO/CRM marks are Fri Sep 4 closes; US cash still shut. Sentiment/13F empty — scorecard flow factors null.
eu_equity_ideas — eu_fundamentals_gap — NDX1.DE aggregator fundamentals empty. Price cross-check: agg Fri close 36.76 vs MarketScreener/BofA-day web ~€40.2; published web 40.20.
penny_plays — Screener empty for category=penny — fell back to continuity watchlist (BFRI PDUFA Sep 28; OTLK HCPCS filing-by Oct 1).
forex_rebalancing — FX /price history stale (ends 2026-08-29) and some /price spots returned Stooq JS; EURUSD 1.1616 from Yahoo live. USDJPY web/Reuters: yen through 154.
commodities_outlook — USO last ETF print Fri 141.96; WEAT hist last Sep 2 27.86 (stale). Book already loaded (USO/COPX/CPER/WEAT) — no new BUY. WTI live 94.08 used for the energy thesis, not mixed into the USO price field.
crypto_landscape — BTC/ETH already held — BUY is no-add. Spot ETF flow prints still through Fri Sep 4 (Labor Day gap).
trend_follow — No universe name has 200 closes (hist ~52–58 rows) — sma200 null, 200-day test fails, zero BUY. SMH EXIT on Sep 1 close 545.22 vs sma50 580.29 (hist missing Sep 4). Prior SMH SELL still PENDING-reserved since Aug 19.
risk_cover_playbook — HY OAS from FRED is 2.65 (265 bp, 2026-09-03); morning run used 310. Put/call omitted (no feed). Sector pairwise corr skipped (partial hist).
portfolio_reality_check — Euro/Penny/AF/Trend/Commodities/Crypto books all_prices_estimated. INTC −78% is a cost-basis outlier (avg 439 vs px 95.8) — ignored for stop-loss. SMH EXIT may stay PENDING.
September FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥3.75–4.00%)
Probability: High • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $101581.71
Blended P&L: +1.58% • 30d Hit Rate: +92.00%
1 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 23 of 25 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 8.5%, average loss -3.8%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 3 minDGS10 4.77 vs DFF 3.63, VIX 14.53, HY OAS 2.65: equities are still near the ATH while crude’s +2.8% Hormuz premium is the inflation tension. Weekly USD broad 118.75 (Aug 28) is a different…
MARKET PULSE
SPX −1.17% from the Aug 14 ATH (7718.60 Fri) with 69.5% of members above the 200-day; the live tell is WTI 94.08 (+2.84%) against a still-sub-15 VIX.
Mixed tape Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
AIDGS10 4.77 vs DFF 3.63, VIX 14.53, HY OAS 2.65: equities are still near the ATH while crude’s +2.8% Hormuz premium is the inflation tension. Weekly USD broad 118.75 (Aug 28) is a different clock than the daily VIX.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,718.60
yday 7,718.60
▼ -0.38%
NASDAQ Data
26,506.99
yday 26,506.99
▼ -0.29%
Dow Jones Data
53,414.25
yday 53,414.25
▼ -0.51%
Russell 2K Data
2,975.65
yday 2,975.65
▲ +0.25%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
4,438.30
yday 4,476.60
▼ -0.86%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data
94.08
yday 91.48
▲ +2.84%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
78,320.00
yday 79,653.41
▼ -1.74%
Ethereum Data
2,480.30
yday 2,510.41
▼ -1.04%
Rates
10Y Yield Data
4.78
yday 4.78
0.00%
10Y-2Y Data
0.41
yday 0.41 / -0.20
—
UST 10y Data
4.77
—
UST 30y Data
5.25
—
Eff. fed funds Data
3.63
—
Credit
HY OAS Data
2.65
yday 2.65 percent
—
HY−IG OAS differential Data
1.84 pp
yday 1.84 percentage_points
calm
Volatility
VIX Data
14.53
yday 14.53
▲ +1.47%
VIX (FRED) Data
14.32
—
VIX/VIX3M term-structure Data
0.83
calm
VIX9D/VIX front slope Data
0.82
calm
MOVE index Data
73.10
yday 73.10 index
calm
Dollar & FX
DXY (spot) Data
98.96
—
EUR/USD Data
1.16
yday 1.16
▼ -0.02%
USD broad (weekly) Data
118.75
—
wk
DXY (spot) Data
98.96
calm
Breadth
SPY−RSP 5d Data
+1.94pp
—
% from 52w Data
-1.17%
—
% SPX above 200-day Data
69.47 %
calm
Liquidity
SOFR−DFF Data
0.03 pp
calm
Initial claims (ICSA) Data
206,000.00 claims
calm
Cross-asset
Stock-bond 20d correlation Data
0.44 corr
watch
Gold/Copper (GLD/CPER) Data
10.18
calm
Other
UST 3y Data
4.41
—
Cover checks
VIX Data
14.53 / 25.00
yday 14.53
Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread Data
0.41 / -0.20
yday 0.41 / -0.20
Not Triggered
HY OAS (bp) Data
265.00 / 450.00
Not Triggered
SPX drawdown from ATH (%) Data
1.17 / 8.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AIWTI + copper are up together (94.08 / HG 6.78) while HY OAS 2.65 and SPX −1.17% from ATH say growth is intact. That is inflationary boom, not stagflation: keep DBC/GLD, keep TLT at 0, do not buy SH on a 0/4-trigger tape.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 1 minTuesday Asia completed a Hormuz/yen session: Reuters had the Nikkei −1.70% as Brent held >$97 and USD/JPY broke through 154, while US cash still sat on Friday’s 7718.60 / VIX 14.53 Labor Da…
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Tuesday Asia completed a Hormuz/yen session: Reuters had the Nikkei −1.70% as Brent held >$97 and USD/JPY broke through 154, while US cash still sat on Friday’s 7718.60 / VIX 14.53 Labor Day marks.
Bridge to Today
Into ECB Thu and CPI Fri, watch whether US cash opens by fading Asia’s oil/yen shock or by validating the Hormuz premium already in WTI $94 / Brent $99.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 1 minNDX1.DE BUY
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
NDX1.DENEW
Nordex SE
6.8
+9.36%
NDX1.DEGROWTHBUYNEW
Nordex SE • Industrials
6.8/10Conviction
$40.20
▲ +9.36%
BofA Buy / €54 (Sep 7) is the 48h-fresh EU name: use web €40.20, not the stale agg 36.76, and size a single add vs this morning’s AIR.PA/SAN.MC.
BofA PT €54Web €40.20 vs agg 36.76Anti-rep vs AIR.PA
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
7/10
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
6/10
52-week range
BofA Neutral→Buy, PT €54 on Sep 7; +9.3% to ~€40.2n-tv: Barclays Energy & Power Conference appearance Tue>800 MW US orders since June (Iowa manufacturing)
Target
$54.00
Invalidation: Weekly close back below €36 or BofA thesis reversed on a missed US order print.
TradingView's price for NDX1.DE. It is not the last print in this letter.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 4 minZero new BUYs: no name has 200 closes so sma200 is null. SMH EXITs (545.22 < sma50 580.29). Hold XLE/XLV/XBI/XLB — 7/18 still above the 50-day.
TREND FOLLOW
Zero new BUYs: no name has 200 closes so sma200 is null. SMH EXITs (545.22 < sma50 580.29). Hold XLE/XLV/XBI/XLB — 7/18 still above the 50-day.
7 of 18 universe names close above their 50-day (XLK, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLB, XLC, XBI) — same narrow tape as the morning run, and still no 200-day confirmation.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
3
-2.05%
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR
6
-1.60%
XLV
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
5
-0.87%
XBI
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
5
+0.55%
XLB
Materials Select Sector SPDR
5
-0.96%
SMHSEMICONDUCTORSEXIT🔥 23-issue streak
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
3/10Conviction
$545.22
▼ -2.05%
Hard EXIT: Sep 1 close 545.22 is below the 50-day (~580). Re-send the SELL; the Aug 19 order is still PENDING-reserved.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo 200-day; EXIT is the mandate, not a catRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s545.22 vs sma50 580.29 — rule broken.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
3/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
Close ≤ sma50 is the mandate exit — not a discretionary fade
Invalidation: Daily close back above the 50-day (~580) would re-qualify, not a reason to hold now.
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
SMH · 20d illustrative range
XLEENERGYHOLD🔥 23-issue streak
Energy Select Sector SPDR
6/10Conviction
$64.06
▼ -1.60%
HOLD the energy sleeve: 64.06 is +9.7% vs the 50-day and +8.9 pp vs SPY/20d, but sma200 is missing so this is not a fresh BUY.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sOil shock supports RS; not a 200-day BUY.Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s64.06 vs sma50 58.37 (+9.7%).
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
7/10
WTI 94.08 Hormuz premium keeps energy RS bid
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~58.37).
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
HOLD: 171.45 is still above the 50-day; no 200-day confirmation so no add.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo dated health-care catalyst; hold only.Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s171.45 vs sma50 163.12 (+5.1%).
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
6/10
Rules-based hold — still above sma50
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~163.12).
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLV · 20d illustrative range
XBIBIOTECHNOLOGYHOLD🔥 22-issue streak
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
5/10Conviction
$163.40
▲ +0.55%
HOLD: best 20d RS in the held book (+11 pp vs SPY) but sma200 null blocks a BUY.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRS is the tape, not a dated catalyst.Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s163.40 vs sma50 156.83; +11 pp vs SPY/20d.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
6/10
Relative-strength hold vs SPY, not a new add
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~156.83).
TradingView's price for XBI. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLBMATERIALSHOLD🔥 22-issue streak
Materials Select Sector SPDR
5/10Conviction
$52.44
▼ -0.96%
HOLD: barely above the 50-day (+1.4%); copper helps the narrative but the rule is still HOLD, not BUY.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sCopper firms the tape; no 200-day BUY.Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not s52.44 vs sma50 51.71 — marginal hold.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
5/10
HG=F 6.7785 live — materials RS modest
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~51.71).
TradingView's price for XLB. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
HOLD GBP vs EUR — No fresh UK catalyst — leave GBP unchanged vs EUR.
Conviction 40%
HOLD CHF vs EUR — CHF stays residual ballast, not an active add into Thursday’s ECB.
Conviction 40%
Crypto
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minBTC 78320 (−1.74% vs Mon) and ETH 2480 keep the BUY/no-add stance: week-ended-Sep-4 spot ETFs still +$987M / +$215M, but both coins are already sized.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
BTC 78320 (−1.74% vs Mon) and ETH 2480 keep the BUY/no-add stance: week-ended-Sep-4 spot ETFs still +$987M / +$215M, but both coins are already sized.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
6.5
-1.74%
ETH-USD
Ethereum
6
-1.04%
BTC-USDBUY🔥 6-issue streak
Bitcoin
6.5/10Conviction
$78320.00
▼ -1.74%
Keep BTC as the core crypto sleeve: ETF +$987M week-ended Sep 4 still supports BUY, but the lot is already on the book — no-add.
On-chain/hash metrics not pulled — fundameSpot BTC ETFs +$986.9M week ended Sep 4 (3ETF bid still the institutional catalyst iDigital gold vs oil-shock inflation — keepBTC 78320 Tue −1.74% vs Mon 79705; still a
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
7/10
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
5/10
Spot BTC ETFs +$986.9M week ended Sep 4FOMC Sep 16 as the next vol event
Invalidation: Weekly close back below 72000 with a week of net ETF outflows.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Keep ETH as the liquid second sleeve: +$215M ETF week is supportive but slower than BTC — BUY/no-add, no SOL/XRP chase.
No ETH staking/TVL pull this run — fundameSpot ETH ETFs +$215M week ended Sep 4 — slSecond-beta to BTC ETF tape; no new protocKeep ETH as the liquid alt sleeve, not a fETH 2480.3 Tue −1.04% vs Sep 6 2506.3.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
6/10
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
Spot ETH ETFs +$215M week ended Sep 4
Invalidation: Weekly close back below 2200 with ETF outflows for two weeks.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 2 minHold USO at 141.96 (Fri) while WTI 94.08 / Brent 98.63 keep the Hormuz premium; REDUCE WEAT 27.86 as Black Sea peace hopes hit grains — no new BUY in an already-loaded book.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Hold USO at 141.96 (Fri) while WTI 94.08 / Brent 98.63 keep the Hormuz premium; REDUCE WEAT 27.86 as Black Sea peace hopes hit grains — no new BUY in an already-loaded book.
Oil bid + wheat fade with DGS10 4.77 and weekly DTWEXBGS 118.75 is an inflationary-boom energy sleeve, not a broad commodity smash: if Hormuz traffic stays ~10…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
USO
United States Oil Fund
6
+0.57%
WEAT
Teucrium Wheat Fund
5
-0.50%
United States Oil FundENERGYHOLD🔥 8-issue streak
USO
6/10Conviction
$141.96
▲ +0.57%
Keep the existing USO lot through CPI: WTI 94.08 (+2.84% vs Fri 91.48) and Brent 98.63 price Hormuz + the OPEC+ Oct hold — do not add; the book already owns USO/BNO/UGA.
Hormuz traffic lowest since May; OPEC+ OctNo COT/positioning print this run — factorWTI 94.08 +2.84% vs Fri 91.48; Brent 98.63Oil-as-inflation-impulse still the tape inUSO 141.96 Fri; already maxed in the commo
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
WTI CL=F 94.08 Tue vs 91.48 FriBrent BZ=F 98.63; Reuters Brent >$97Kpler Hormuz transit lowest since May (~10 ships/day)
Invalidation: WTI sustains a close back below $88 with Hormuz transit normalizing above 20 ships/day.
TradingView's price for USO. It is not the last print in this letter.
Fade wheat into Black Sea peace headlines: Fastmarkets Sep 7 cut grains on profit-taking — REDUCE/WATCH the existing WEAT stub rather than add another ag lot.
Black Sea peace hopes loosen the grains baNo grains positioning feed this run — gap Fastmarkets Sep 7: wheat futures down on pAg is the idiosyncratic fade while energy WEAT 27.86 (Sep 2 print); off the 28.00 lo
Fundamentals
4/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
5/10
Fastmarkets Sep 7: wheat futures fall on Black Sea peace hopesWEAT last print 27.86 (Sep 2; hist stale vs USO)
Invalidation: WEAT closes back above 29.50 or a confirmed Black Sea export shutdown reverses the peace tape.
TradingView's price for WEAT. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 5 min30d hit rate 92%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech-US
+1.58%
Named holdings. 117 smaller positions (29.72%) are off this picture.
Tech-US
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$101581.71
Cash
$12483.46
P&L
$1581.71 (+1.58%)
Realized P&L
$-3181.65
TWR
+1.79%
Sharpe
0.41
Max DD
-2.39%
Sortino
1.06
Calmar
5.53
Ann. return
+13.24%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions88%
Cash12%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
FRO
5.41
pending
Buy
CRM
0.9630
pending
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$8977.99
+5.3%
XOM ×129
$20543.23
+4.3%
UNH ×8.49
$3372.75
-6.8%
INTC ×14.08
$1348.93
-78.2%
MSFT ×11.91
$5952.68
+22.8%
SBUX ×11.63
$1214.59
-2.0%
CBRE ×8.29
$1225.88
-1.1%
AMZN ×5.95
$1538.83
-4.3%
+41 more holdings
Track Record
8 On Track · 2 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
RTX (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
APH (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
SNOW (2026-09-04)
7.5/10
-5.4%
Lagging
HOOD (2026-09-04)
7/10
-2.1%
Lagging
PSX (2026-09-07)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
ADBE (2026-09-07)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
CVX (2026-09-08)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
JPM (2026-09-08)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
FRO (2026-09-08)
7/10
+14.1%
On Track
CRM (2026-09-08)
7/10
+2.9%
On Track
Euro-only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$121086.29
Cash
$20335.28
P&L
$21086.29 (+21.09%)
Realized P&L
$-42835.98
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
NDX1.DE
10.13
—
Current Holdings
⚠ Live marks unavailable for every holding — priced at cost/last estimate, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702
$23967.39
—
TTE.PA ×364
$26944.15
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
—
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
—
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
—
GLE.PA ×17.29
$1402.26
—
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
—
NWG.L ×191
$1346.17
—
+34 more holdings
Track Record
8 On Track
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
IVG.MI (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
PUB.PA (2026-09-04)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
DTE.DE (2026-09-04)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
TEF.MC (2026-09-07)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
EUROB.AT (2026-09-07)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
AIR.PA (2026-09-08)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
SAN.MC (2026-09-08)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
NDX1.DE (2026-09-08)
6.8/10
+0.0%
On Track
Penny-Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Hold
BFRI
0.0000
—
Hold
OTLK
0.0000
—
Current Holdings
⚠ Live marks unavailable for every holding — priced at cost/last estimate, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578
$3755.55
—
PYPD ×1564
$6940.50
—
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
—
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$35000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Hold
GLD
0.0000
—
Hold
IEF
0.0000
—
Hold
DBC
0.0000
—
Hold
SPLV
0.0000
—
Current Holdings
⚠ Live marks unavailable for every holding — priced at cost/last estimate, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65
$25000.00
—
IEF ×108
$10000.00
—
DBC ×654
$20000.00
—
SPLV ×132
$10000.00
—
Trend-follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$75717.93
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Sell
SMH
5.03
pending
Hold
XLE
0.0000
—
Hold
XLV
0.0000
—
Hold
XBI
0.0000
—
Hold
XLB
0.0000
—
Current Holdings
⚠ Live marks unavailable for every holding — priced at cost/last estimate, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86
$5539.52
—
SMH ×5.03
$2990.61
—
XLV ×30.27
$5207.77
—
XBI ×32
$5207.77
—
XLB ×93.53
$4954.78
—
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$28966.37
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Hold
USO
0.0000
—
Hold
WEAT
0.0000
—
Current Holdings
⚠ Live marks unavailable for every holding — priced at cost/last estimate, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×202
$26216.50
—
GLD ×30.1
$11738.20
—
CPER ×136
$5372.73
—
SLV ×84.48
$4999.97
—
PPLT ×66.63
$1111.38
—
BNO ×35.14
$1850.57
—
URA ×23.16
$1066.93
—
UGA ×26.78
$3377.87
—
+11 more holdings
Track Record
5 On Track
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
PPLT (2026-09-05)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
URA (2026-09-05)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
USO (2026-09-02)
6/10
+0.0%
On Track
SLX (2026-09-07)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
COPX (2026-09-08)
7/10
+0.0%
On Track
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$33371.62
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Hold
BTC-USD
0.0000
—
Hold
ETH-USD
0.0000
—
Current Holdings
⚠ Live marks unavailable for every holding — priced at cost/last estimate, not a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5382
$34014.55
—
ETH-USD ×14.91
$28949.67
—
SOL-USD ×26.81
$2795.91
—
XRP-USD ×628
$868.24
—
Track Record
2 On Track
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BTC-USD (2026-09-04)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
ETH-USD (2026-09-05)
6.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +92.00%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
HY OAS
HY OAS (high-yield option-adjusted spread) is the extra yield junk-rated corporate bonds pay over Treasuries after stripping out embedded-option effects.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Penny-stock risk: very low-priced, thinly traded securities can be illiquid, volatile and easy to manipulate. Spreads can be wide, exits may be impossible at the quoted price, and you can lose your entire investment. Ideas in this category are diligence starting points, not a buy list.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.