UST 3y 4.97 UST 10y (FRED) 4.96 UST 10y (TNX) 5.162 +0.08UST 30y 5.4 Eff. fed funds 3.88 USD broad (weekly) 118.2126
MORNING ALPHA

Daily Financial Newsletter

Friday, September 25, 2026 · 09:22:00 · archived issue
EN FR
Read the Full Letter Here Support Morning Alpha
⚠ Data quality : DEGRADED · 13 notes
⚠ Data quality: DEGRADED
yesterday_retrospective — GET /movers?index=SPX dated 24 Sep but losers printed close=0 / −100% (AMD/CVX/MU/SNDK); movers[] omitted. Sector % from Yahoo daily.
market_pulse — SPX analytics lastSession 2026-09-23 close 7,764.64 vs Thursday eodhd 7,704.13; copied breadth/ATH and used live tiles. VIXCLS FRED 14.21 is 22 Sep; spot VIX 15.67. DGS10 FRED 4.96 22 Sep vs TNX 5.162. DTWEXBGS weekly 118.21 on 11 Sep (older than Wednesday’s 18 Sep 119.51). Squawk 401.
concept_spotlight — Weekday skip — duration fits the 10y tape but the catalog term is taught as skip-unless-new; presentation=skip.
us_equity_ideas — Screener-first (317 US). /fundamentals derived empty for DG/COST; /news missed HSBC DG upgrade and Costco 8-K — used Newsquawk/GlobeNewswire. Widened off SNDK/AAPL/META/ARHS/ACN/TLN/LRCX/COIN/CRWV. 13F/congress not pulled on finalists. COST aggregator 896.48 matches Yahoo AH.
eu_equity_ideas — eu_fundamentals_gap — KCR.HE /fundamentals empty and /news n=0. Used company 24 Sep release. KCR.HE is not in the 27-name EU screen — published anyway as the day’s only dated EU target-upgrade. Widened off SAN.MC/ADS.DE/TUI1.DE/SAVE.ST/GLE.PA.
penny_plays — screener unavailable or empty for category=penny — fell back to web search; penny universe may not be seeded yet. Publish zero ideas. Did not recycle BFRI (sBCC already approved 14 Sep).
forex_rebalancing — squawk-alert feed unavailable (401 missing X-Account-Key) — fell back to central-bank web search. EUR crosses from Yahoo. /predictions Manifold probability null — October hike ~75% from CME FedWatch web.
commodities_outlook — Did not re-BUY SLV/USO/CPER/WEAT/CORN/UNG. COT empty. Aggregator history n=0 — Yahoo 1y used for % and sparklines. UNG is a new FM catalyst, not a re-BUY.
crypto_landscape — 24 Sep ETF prints from SoSoValue via ChainCatcher/TokenPost, not aggregator. BTC-USD/ETH-USD remain known PM 400s — HOLD, no re-BUY. Dropped XRP (anti-repetition). Yahoo/coingecko prices used alongside aggregator.
trend_follow — Aggregator /price/history 429 after rate-limit; Yahoo 1y used for sma50/sma200. 6/18 above sma50. At 5-name cap — skip XLK/QQQ BUY even though rules passed. XLB/XBI EXIT skip restack of Sep 14 PENDING SELL. SMH PENDING SELL leftover skipped — tape is HOLD.
risk_top5 — GET /predictions returned Manifold item with probability null — October hike odds ~75% from CME FedWatch web, not the aggregator waterfall.
risk_cover_playbook — Put/call omitted (no Cboe print). VIX9D/MOVE empty. Index breadth from 23 Sep analytics (49.5% advancing). Stock-bond 20d corr omitted (Yahoo tails too short after rate-limit) — note only.
portfolio_reality_check — File PORTFOLIO_ID_TECH_US used. Euro/Penny/AF/Trend/Commodities/Crypto /positions all_prices_estimated. Did not re-BUY ACN/TLN/LRCX/COIN/HAE/JBHT/LITE/IREN/ORSTED/DRX/NXT/EXENS/SOI/GLE/BEZ/META/ARHS/SNDK/AAPL/SAN.MC/CPER/WEAT/SLV/CORN/UNG/BTC/ETH. HAL/AMZN/SLB/ORCL/ESTC/GAP/HD/RDDT/HOOD/OI/CSCO/UNH/INTC/ADBE pending SELLs skipped. XLB/XBI/SMH TF PENDING SELLs skipped. Wednesday AF DBC/GLD SELL + TLT/IEF/SPLV BUY left PENDING — not restacked after quadrant flip back to inflationary_boom (book already at those weights).
General
GeneralThe Bottom Line 1 min10y at 5.16% and ~75% October hike odds left SPX flat at 7,704; oil’s bounce funds an inflationary mix, not a broad bid.
THE BOTTOM LINE
RISK-ON=
10y at 5.16% and ~75% October hike odds left SPX flat at 7,704; oil’s bounce funds an inflationary mix, not a broad bid.
High-yield OAS 2.73 bp
150 bp800 bp
Under 350 bp scores +1. Wider spreads score 0, then −1, then −2.
S&P shares above the 200-day 61.3%
0%100%
Above 65% scores +1. 40–65% scores 0. Under 40% scores −1.
Today's Top Picks
KCR.HE
7.3/10
DG
7/10
UNG
7/10
COST
6.8/10
BTC-USD
6.8/10
Biggest Risk
October FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥4.00–4.25%)
Probability: High • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $102664.53
Blended P&L: +2.66% • 30d Hit Rate: +62.70%
1 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 101 of 161 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 10.4%, average loss -5.2%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 3 min10y 5.162% (TNX) vs FRED DGS10 4.96% on 22 Sep; VIX 15.67 vs VIX3M 18.43; DFF 3.88%; weekly USD DTWEXBGS 118.21 on 11 Sep.
MARKET PULSE
SPX sits 1.36% under the 7,810 ATH with VIX 15.67 vs VIX3M 18.43 (0.85 contango) while the 10y prints 5.162% and October hike odds are ~75%.
Tightening Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
AI10y 5.162% (TNX) vs FRED DGS10 4.96% on 22 Sep; VIX 15.67 vs VIX3M 18.43; DFF 3.88%; weekly USD DTWEXBGS 118.21 on 11 Sep.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data7,704.13
yday 7,764.64
▼ -0.02%
NASDAQ Data26,939.37
yday 27,244.28
▲ +0.01%
Dow Jones Data51,349.98
yday 51,863.69
▼ -0.31%
Russell 2K Data2,835.57
yday 2,889.92
▼ -0.11%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data4,312.50
yday 4,369.90
▼ -0.30%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data93.08
yday 89.41
▲ +2.66%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data84,102.00
yday 86,425.00
▼ -0.68%
Ethereum Data2,674.09
yday 2,754.03
▼ -0.61%
Rates
10Y Yield Data5.16
yday 4.97
▲ +0.94%
UST 10y (FRED) Data4.96
yday 4.96
—
UST 10y (TNX) Data5.16+0.08
UST 30y Data5.40
yday 5.29
—
Eff. fed funds Data3.88
yday 3.88
—
Credit
HY OAS Data2.73
yday 2.66
—
HY–IG OAS differential Data1.96 pctcalm
Volatility
VIX Data15.67
yday 14.21
▲ +3.23%
VIX spot Data15.67—
VIX/VIX3M term structure Data0.85 ratio
yday 0.81 ratio
calm
Dollar & FX
EUR/USD Data1.14
yday 1.14
▲ +0.04%
USD broad (weekly) Data118.21
yday 119.51
—
wk
Weekly USD broad (DTWEXBGS) Data118.21 indexwatch
Breadth
SPY−RSP 5d Data+0.92pp
yday +0.92pp
—
SPY−RSP 21d Data+2.66pp
yday +2.66pp
—
% from 52w Data-0.58%
yday -2.04%
—
SPX % above SMA200 Data61.30 pctcalm
Liquidity
SOFR–DFF spread Data-0.01 pctcalm
Initial claims (ICSA) Data197,000.00 countcalm
Cross-asset
Gold/Copper (GLD/CPER) Data9.64 ratiocalm
Other
UST 3y Data4.97
yday 4.82
—
SPX drawdown from ATH Data-1.36 pctwatch
Cover checks
VIX Data15.67 / 25.00
yday 14.21
Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread Data0.26 / -0.20
yday 0.25 / -0.20
Not Triggered
HY OAS Data2.73 / 5.00
yday 2.66
Not Triggered
SPX drawdown from ATH Data-1.36 / -10.00Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AIOil bounced with Houthi/Hormuz risk while the 10y tagged 5.16% and FedWatch hiked October odds to ~75%. Copper is not confirming, but the inflation/policy side dominated Thursday. Own gold + broad commodities + a stub of SPLV; keep TLT at 0.
DataHedge instruments : GLD, TLT, SH, VIXY · Target cash 15%
Sleeve TickerTarget Action
Gold AIGLD25%Hold
Long bonds AITLT0%Exit
Intermediate bonds AIIEF10%Hold
Commodities AIDBC20%Hold
Defensive equity AISPLV10%Hold
Crash hedge AISH0%Exit
Cash AI—35%Hold
If triggered today — do this now AI
• Cut high-beta AI/semis to the Trend Follow 50-day rule
• Raise Anti-Fragile cash and turn on SH only if regime flips risk-off
• Do not add duration (TLT) if oil is still bid
AI0/4 hard triggers. Gave quadrant flips back to inflationary_boom: USO +2.9%, 10y 5.16%, hike odds 75%, copper flat. 2 of 9 internals in watch (10y level, weekly USD stale). Anti-Fragile already sits on the inflationary weights — no churn.
Sources: CME FedWatch
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 1 minThursday’s S&P 500 closed 7,704.13 (−0.02%) after a 10-year yield surge to 5.15–5.20% and a late oil bounce; the Nasdaq was +0.01% while the Dow lost 0.31%.
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Thursday’s S&P 500 closed 7,704.13 (−0.02%) after a 10-year yield surge to 5.15–5.20% and a late oil bounce; the Nasdaq was +0.01% while the Dow lost 0.31%.
Bridge to Today
Watch whether Friday’s cash session confirms the 5.16% 10y as a new floor or fades it if the weekend Hormuz offer lands.
Stocks
Ideas board
TickerRegionCall Conv. Price1dType
DGDollar General Corporation USBUY7 122.53+1.60% Recovery
COSTCostco Wholesale Corporation USBUY6.8 896.48-0.91% Growth
KCR.HEKonecranes Oyj EUBUY7.3 31.46+5.71% Growth
StocksUS Equity Ideas 2 minDG BUY · COST BUY
US EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
DGNEW Dollar General Corporation 7 +1.60%
COSTNEW Costco Wholesale Corporation 6.8 -0.91%
DG  RECOVERY BUYNEW
Dollar General Corporation • Consumer Staples
7/10 Conviction
$122.53
▲ +1.60%
Over the next 1–2 months expect the HSBC $160 target to keep the bid if comps stay ≥3.5% and the Instacart pilot converts — this is trade-down retail, not AI duration.
HSBC Buy $160Comps +3.5%Below 50d 124.4
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
6/10
HSBC Joe Thomas upgraded Hold→Buy and PT $125→$160 on 24 Sep Q2 sales +5.2%, comps +3.5%, operating margin +126 bp; FY guide raised and buybacks restarted Instacart same-day delivery pilot in six states announced 23 Sep
Mkt Cap
$27.0B
P/E
15.0
Target
$160.00
Invalidation: HSBC retracts the $160 PT or comps print <2%.

TradingView's price for DG. It is not the last print in this letter.

DG · 20d illustrative range
DG illustrative 20-day price cone from 122.53: 5th pct 103.54, median 121.93, 95th pct 143.58 (vol 35.28% annualised)DG · 20d illustrative range101.14116.09131.03145.98Illustrative · vol 35.28% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
COST  GROWTH BUYNEW
Costco Wholesale Corporation • Consumer Staples
6.8/10 Conviction
$896.48
▼ -0.91%
Over the next month the 6.7% ex-gas comp and 33 FY27 warehouses have to defend a ~40x forward multiple against a 5.16% 10y — the beat alone did not re-rate it.
EPS $6.75 beatAH −0.91%sma50 935
Fundamentals
8/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
Q4 FY26 net sales $93.9bn +11.2%; diluted EPS $6.75 vs ~$6.52 consensus (24 Sep AHC) Comps +9.4% / +6.7% ex-gas & FX; digitally enabled comps +19.5% FY27 plan: 33 warehouse openings, ~$7.5bn capex
Mkt Cap
$398.0B
P/E
43.2
Target
$1050.00
Invalidation: Ex-gas comps fall under 5% or membership renewals roll over.

TradingView's price for COST. It is not the last print in this letter.

COST · 20d illustrative range
COST illustrative 20-day price cone from 896.48: 5th pct 830.8, median 895.55, 95th pct 965.34 (vol 16.2% annualised)COST · 20d illustrative range822.73872.96923.18973.41Illustrative · vol 16.2% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 1 minKCR.HE BUY
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
KCR.HENEW Konecranes Oyj 7.3 +5.71%
KCR.HE  GROWTH BUYNEW
Konecranes Oyj • Industrials
7.3/10 Conviction
$31.46
▲ +5.71%
Over the next month into the 23 Oct CMD, expect the 15–17% EBITA / 7% CAGR raise to keep the re-rating if Q3 does not walk it back.
EBITA 15–17%CMD 23 Oct+5.7%
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
7/10
24 Sep after close: upgraded group targets to 7% sales CAGR and 15–17% comparable EBITA by 2030 Dividend policy reset to 40–60% of earnings; Capital Markets Day with Q3 on 23 Oct
Target
$35.00
Invalidation: 23 Oct CMD walks back the 15–17% EBITA band.

TradingView's price for KCR.HE. It is not the last print in this letter.

KCR.HE · 20d illustrative range
KCR.HE illustrative 20-day price cone from 31.46: 5th pct 25.51, median 31.22, 95th pct 38.22 (vol 43.63% annualised)KCR.HE · 20d illustrative range24.7529.4934.2438.98Illustrative · vol 43.63% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 4 minSMH still leads (600.5, +6.3% vs the 50-day, RS +7.9%) but the book is at its 5-name cap — XLK/QQQ pass and stay off. XBI lost the 50-day; EXIT is already PENDING.
TREND FOLLOW
SMH still leads (600.5, +6.3% vs the 50-day, RS +7.9%) but the book is at its 5-name cap — XLK/QQQ pass and stay off. XBI lost the 50-day; EXIT is already PENDING.
6 of 18 universe names close above their 50-day — narrower than Wednesday’s 8/18.
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF 7 -0.15%
XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR 6 +0.37%
XLV Health Care Select Sector SPDR 5.5 +0.63%
XBI SPDR S&P Biotech ETF 4.5 +0.55%
XLB Materials Select Sector SPDR 3.5 -1.19%
SMH  TECHNOLOGY HOLD 🔥 40-issue streak
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
7/10 Conviction
$600.52
▼ -0.15%
Stay long semis while SMH holds the rising 50-day; MU 30 Sep is the next tape test, not a reason to restack the leftover SELL.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sMU 30 Sep is the dated sector test.Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sPrice > 50 > 200, RS +7.9% vs SPY.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
8/10
SMH 600.5 > sma50 565 > sma200 492 RS vs SPY +7.9% over 20 sessions
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$565.14).

TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.

SMH · 20d illustrative range
SMH illustrative 20-day price cone from 600.52: 5th pct 493.51, median 596.54, 95th pct 721.09 (vol 40.92% annualised)SMH · 20d illustrative range479.86564.82649.78734.74Illustrative · vol 40.92% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
XLE  ENERGY HOLD 🔥 40-issue streak
Energy Select Sector SPDR
6/10 Conviction
$62.60
▲ +0.37%
Hold energy beta while XLE stays above its 50-day; RS vs SPY is only +0.13%, so this is not a fresh add.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sOil bounce is the tape, not a new BUY.Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sAbove both SMAs; RS vs SPY only +0.13%.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
6/10
USO +2.9% bounce on Hormuz/Houthi tape XLE 62.60 > sma50 61.66 > sma200 56.06
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$61.66).

TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.

XLE · 20d illustrative range
XLE illustrative 20-day price cone from 62.6: 5th pct 55.01, median 62.42, 95th pct 70.82 (vol 27.27% annualised)XLE · 20d illustrative range54.0659.9665.8771.77Illustrative · vol 27.27% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
XLV  HEALTH CARE HOLD 🔥 39-issue streak
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
5.5/10 Conviction
$169.87
▲ +0.63%
Hold XLV above the 50-day; RS vs SPY is −3.2%, so it is ballast not a leader.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo fresh sector catalyst — trend only.Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sAbove both SMAs; RS −3.2% vs SPY.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
6/10
XLV 169.87 > sma50 167.30 > sma200 156.14
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day (~$167.30).

TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.

XLV · 20d illustrative range
XLV illustrative 20-day price cone from 169.87: 5th pct 163.12, median 169.82, 95th pct 176.79 (vol 8.68% annualised)XLV · 20d illustrative range162.3167.4172.51177.61Illustrative · vol 8.68% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
XBI  HEALTH CARE EXIT 🔥 39-issue streak
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
4.5/10 Conviction
$156.05
▲ +0.55%
XBI closed 156.05 through the 50-day (157.56) — hard EXIT. Sep 14 PENDING SELL already covers it; do not restack.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRule break is the catalyst.Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sLost the 50-day; RS −7.9% vs SPY.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
4/10
Close 156.05 ≤ sma50 157.56
Invalidation: Already through the 50-day (~$157.56).

TradingView's price for XBI. It is not the last print in this letter.

XLB  MATERIALS EXIT 🔥 39-issue streak
Materials Select Sector SPDR
3.5/10 Conviction
$49.68
▼ -1.19%
XLB 49.68 remains under sma50 51.72 — EXIT still live. Sep 14 PENDING SELL already queued.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sMaterials sold the 10y spike.Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sBelow 50-day; RS −7.4% vs SPY.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
Close 49.68 ≤ sma50 51.72 Thursday XLB −1.19%
Invalidation: Already through the 50-day (~$51.72).

TradingView's price for XLB. It is not the last print in this letter.

Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Forex
ForexForex Rebalancing Radar 1 min
FOREX REBALANCING RADAR
Base currency: EUR
Currency vs EUR Short-term Medium-term Long-term
USD 🔥29 SEEK (6) SEEK (4) AVOID (-3)
JPY 🔥12 AVOID (-4) AVOID (-3) NEUTRAL (0)
GBP 🔥23 NEUTRAL (0) NEUTRAL (0) NEUTRAL (1)
CHF 🔥20 NEUTRAL (0) NEUTRAL (1) SEEK (3)
Sources: SNB
SEK 🔥4 AVOID (-3) AVOID (-2) NEUTRAL (0)
Suggested rebalancing actions
INCREASE USD vs EUR — 75% October hike odds and a 5.16% 10y still pay vs EUR cash this month.
Conviction 60%
Sources: CME FedWatch
DECREASE JPY vs EUR — Keep JPY light into 158–160; the Katayama rung-3 cap makes chasing the short two-sided.
Conviction 50%
Crypto
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minSpot BTC ETFs took in ~$191m on 24 Sep (sixth day, IBIT $163m) and ETH ETFs $66m (fifth day). Price is softer (~$84.1k / $2,671) with hike odds at 75% — HOLD, no re-BUY.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Spot BTC ETFs took in ~$191m on 24 Sep (sixth day, IBIT $163m) and ETH ETFs $66m (fifth day). Price is softer (~$84.1k / $2,671) with hike odds at 75% — HOLD, no re-BUY.
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
BTC-USD Bitcoin 6.8 -0.68%
ETH-USD Ethereum 6.3 -0.61%
BTC-USD  HOLD 🔥 23-issue streak
Bitcoin
6.8/10 Conviction
$84102.00
▼ -0.68%
Over the next two weeks the sixth inflow day is the bid, but 75% October hike odds cap a squeeze — HOLD the sleeve, do not add (PM still 400s BTC-USD).
On-chain supply not pulled this run.BTC ETFs +$191m, day six.IBIT $163m print 24 Sep.Hike-odds headwind vs ETF bid.Yahoo ~$83.8–84.1k, off this week’s high.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
8/10
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
BTC spot ETFs +$191m on 24 Sep, six-day streak IBIT +$163m
Invalidation: Weekly close back under $78k.

TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.

undefined · 20d illustrative range
undefined illustrative 20-day price cone from 84102: 5th pct 67027.17, median 83365.66, 95th pct 103686.81 (vol 47.07% annualised)undefined · 20d illustrative range64827.5978513.8692200.12105886.39Illustrative · vol 47.07% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
ETH-USD  HOLD 🔥 22-issue streak
Ethereum
6.3/10 Conviction
$2674.09
▼ -0.61%
Over the next two weeks ETH’s five-day ETF inflow is real but smaller than BTC’s — HOLD, no third-asset chase.
L2 TVL not refreshed this run.ETH ETFs +$66m, day five.ETHA/FETH led 24 Sep inflows.Secondary to BTC on this hike tape.Aggregator 2,674; Yahoo 2,671.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
7/10
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
ETH spot ETFs +$66.1m on 24 Sep, fifth day, no fund outflow
Invalidation: Weekly close under $2,400.

TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.

undefined · 20d illustrative range
undefined illustrative 20-day price cone from 2674.09: 5th pct 2150.39, median 2652.42, 95th pct 3271.66 (vol 45.28% annualised)undefined · 20d illustrative range2083.112501.722920.333338.94Illustrative · vol 45.28% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 3 minUSO bounced 2.9% with the Hormuz/Houthi tape but the bid is two-sided; UNG +6.3% on the Columbia Gas force majeure is the real physical event — no re-BUYs.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
USO bounced 2.9% with the Hormuz/Houthi tape but the bid is two-sided; UNG +6.3% on the Columbia Gas force majeure is the real physical event — no re-BUYs.
Oil up and copper flat with a 5.16% 10y is an inflation-policy mix, not a growth-scare copper dump. If the weekend Hormuz offer dies, energy leads again; if it…
Ticker Name Conviction 1d
USO WTI crude (USO) 6.3 +2.86%
UNG US natural gas (UNG) 7 +6.26%
CPER Copper (CPER) 5.8 +0.10%
WTI crude (USO)  ENERGY REDUCE 🔥 6-issue streak
USO
6.3/10 Conviction
$153.09
▲ +2.86%
Over the next few sessions treat WTI as two-sided: Iran’s 7-day Hormuz offer vs Houthi-Saudi strikes. Do not add the bounce.
Physical still tight; offer/strike tape isCOT positioning not priced this run.Hormuz 7-day offer vs Houthi-Saudi hits.War-premium fade risk into the weekend.USO 153.09 +2.9% after a six-session slide
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
Iran offered to reopen Hormuz in 7 days if the US lifts the blockade (24–25 Sep) Houthi missiles toward Taif/Yanbu kept a war premium under the bid
Invalidation: WTI holds a close above $100 after a failed Hormuz offer.

TradingView's price for USO. It is not the last print in this letter.

undefined · 20d illustrative range
undefined illustrative 20-day price cone from 153.09: 5th pct 122.88, median 151.83, 95th pct 187.6 (vol 45.65% annualised)undefined · 20d illustrative range119143.16167.32191.48Illustrative · vol 45.65% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
US natural gas (UNG)  ENERGY HOLD 🔥 2-issue streak
UNG
7/10 Conviction
$11.55
▲ +6.26%
Over the next week the 1.8 Bcf/d Columbia Gas FM is the tape — hold the existing sleeve, do not chase Thursday’s +6%.
1.8 Bcf/d Appalachian takeaway cut is physCOT empty this run.TCO FM dated 24 Sep; Friday restoration upPipeline outage, not a structural bull marUNG 11.55 +6.3%; above sma50 10.27.
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
7/10
TC Energy Columbia Gas declared FM on Mountaineer XPress Line 100, 24 Sep MXPSEG MA42 to zero from the 25 Sep Timely Cycle; ~1.8 MMDth/d firm service
Invalidation: TCO restores MXPSEG MA42 and UNG loses the 50-day (~$10.27).

TradingView's price for UNG. It is not the last print in this letter.

undefined · 20d illustrative range
undefined illustrative 20-day price cone from 11.55: 5th pct 9.32, median 11.46, 95th pct 14.09 (vol 44.68% annualised)undefined · 20d illustrative range9.0310.8112.614.38Illustrative · vol 44.68% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Copper (CPER)  INDUSTRIAL METAL HOLD 🔥 4-issue streak
CPER
5.8/10 Conviction
$40.65
▲ +0.10%
Over the next week copper stays a China-inventory hold: tight spot, sluggish trade, no smash — do not re-BUY.
China stocks tight; import window still loNo positioning print.Weekly SMM, not a shock catalyst.Growth metal is stable, not leading.40.65 flat; sma50 39.57 still underneath.
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
SMM: China regional inventories near the 1st percentile; import loss widened ~Rmb1,400/t LME copper ~$14,621, essentially unchanged on the week
Invalidation: CPER loses the 50-day (~$39.57) on a China demand scare.

TradingView's price for CPER. It is not the last print in this letter.

undefined · 20d illustrative range
undefined illustrative 20-day price cone from 40.65: 5th pct 36.58, median 40.57, 95th pct 45 (vol 22.36% annualised)undefined · 20d illustrative range36.0739.2242.3645.51Illustrative · vol 22.36% ann. · not a forecast-9d0+20d
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
GeneralTop 5 Risks Right Now 1 min#1 October FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥4.00–4.25%)
TOP 5 RISKS RIGHT NOW
#RiskProbability Impact Trend
1October FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥4.00–4.25%)NEWHighHighEscalating
2USD/JPY air-pocket through 159–160 after Tokyo’s reopenNEWMediumHighStable
3Weekend Hormuz offer fails and oil re-squeezes >$100 WTINEWMediumHighNew
4Crowded agentic-AI/CPU melt-up unwinds on the 5%+ 10yNEWMediumHighStable
5Micron 30 Sep print as the memory-tape test (breadth watch-item)=MediumMediumStable
Watch: FOMC decision 2026-10-28
GeneralWhat's Coming Up 1 min2026-09-25 — TCO / Columbia Gas MXP restoration update
WHAT'S COMING UP
2026-09-25 TCO / Columbia Gas MXP restoration update · commodities_outlook
2026-09-30 Micron earnings — memory-tape test · risk_top5
2026-10-23 Konecranes Q3 + Capital Markets Day · eu_equity_ideas
2026-10-28 FOMC decision — hike odds ~75% · risk_top5
Sources: CME FedWatch
Stocks
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 10 min30d hit rate 63%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech US
+2.66%
Named holdings. 135 smaller positions (30.86%) are off this picture.
Portfolio allocation: Cash 55.87%, GLD 7.39%, BTC-USD 7.05%, ETH-USD 5.83%, TTE.PA 5.42%, USO 5.39%, ASML.AS 4.82%, XOM 4.2%, DBC 4.02%Cash55.87%GLD7.39%BTC-USD7.05%ETH-USD5.83%TTE.PA5.42%USO5.39%ASML.AS4.82%XOM4.2%DBC4.02%
Tech US
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$102664.53
Cash
$9779.63
P&L
$2664.53 (+2.66%)
Realized P&L
$-3181.65
TWR
+1.79%
Sharpe
0.25
Max DD
-2.39%
Sortino
0.65
Calmar
4.17
Ann. return
+9.97%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions90%
Cash10%
Today's Moves
ActionTickerQtyStatus
BuyDG1.6pending
BuyCOST0.2182pending
SellABNB10.76pending
SellCRM1.76pending
SellFIVE1.12pending
Current Holdings
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93$9443.52+10.8%
XOM ×129$20887.18+6.1%
UNH ×8.49$3184.81-12.0%
INTC ×14.08$1793.74-71.0%
MSFT ×11.91$5931.59+22.4%
SBUX ×11.63$1088.79-12.2%
CBRE ×8.29$1132.02-8.7%
AMZN ×5.95$1484.49-7.7%
+51 more holdings
Track Record 32 On Track · 20 Lagging · 12 Stopped Out
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
AAPL (2026-09-23)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
ABNB (2026-09-01)6.5/10-17.4%Stopped Out
ACN (2026-09-20)7/10-2.1%Lagging
ADBE (2026-09-07)6.5/10-10.3%Stopped Out
ADI (2026-08-21)8/10-2.4%Lagging
ALGT (2026-09-14)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
AMAT (2026-08-13)7.5/10+0.0%On Track
AMD (2026-08-31)6.5/10+35.2%On Track
AMZN (2026-08-29)7/10-6.4%Lagging
APH (2026-09-05)7.5/10+0.4%On Track
AVGO (2026-08-22)7/10-7.9%Lagging
COIN (2026-09-19)7.4/10+2.6%On Track
COP (2026-09-14)7.5/10+0.0%On Track
CRM (2026-09-08)7/10-8.1%Stopped Out
CRWD (2026-09-15)7.1/10+10.3%On Track
CSCO (2026-08-12)7.5/10-9.1%Stopped Out
CVX (2026-09-08)7/10-1.4%Lagging
DELL (2026-09-12)6.2/10-5.5%Lagging
DUOL (2026-09-06)7.5/10-4.3%Lagging
ESI (2026-09-13)6.8/10+0.0%On Track
ESTC (2026-08-29)8/10-8.6%Stopped Out
FIVE (2026-09-06)7.5/10-11.8%Stopped Out
FRO (2026-09-08)7/10+4.0%On Track
GAP (2026-08-30)7/10-7.6%Lagging
GLW (2026-09-09)6.8/10+0.0%On Track
HAE (2026-09-18)6.8/10-1.5%Lagging
HAL (2026-09-03)6.5/10-12.9%Stopped Out
HD (2026-08-19)8/10-9.6%Stopped Out
HOOD (2026-09-04)7/10-3.1%Lagging
INTU (2026-08-26)7/10+0.0%On Track
IREN (2026-09-16)6/10+11.0%On Track
JBHT (2026-09-18)6.5/10-3.2%Lagging
JEF (2026-09-10)6.3/10+0.0%On Track
JPM (2026-09-08)6.5/10-5.6%Lagging
LHX (2026-09-15)6/10-3.1%Lagging
LITE (2026-09-17)7/10+1.0%On Track
LLY (2026-09-15)7.1/10+3.5%On Track
LMT (2026-09-15)6.6/10+0.0%On Track
LRCX (2026-09-19)7.4/10+6.6%On Track
MRK (2026-09-10)7.2/10+0.3%On Track
MRVL (2026-08-22)8/10+118.6%On Track
MU (2026-08-15)7.5/10-1.3%Lagging
NAT (2026-08-31)7/10+13.1%On Track
NVDA (2026-08-28)7.5/10-1.5%Lagging
OI (2026-08-24)7/10-13.8%Stopped Out
ORCL (2026-09-11)7.2/10-14.1%Stopped Out
PSX (2026-09-07)7/10+0.3%On Track
QCOM (2026-09-09)7/10+0.0%On Track
RDDT (2026-08-18)7.5/10-8.0%Stopped Out
ROST (2026-08-23)8/10-3.2%Lagging
RTX (2026-09-05)7.5/10-6.1%Lagging
SHEL (2026-08-30)6.5/10+5.2%On Track
SLB (2026-09-01)7/10-14.4%Stopped Out
SNDK (2026-09-23)7.3/10+0.0%On Track
SNOW (2026-09-04)7.5/10-6.3%Lagging
TGT (2026-08-22)7/10-4.0%Lagging
TLN (2026-09-20)6.8/10+2.6%On Track
V (2026-08-25)7/10-5.3%Lagging
VLO (2026-09-02)7/10+5.8%On Track
VRTX (2026-09-13)6.9/10+0.0%On Track
WMT (2026-08-20)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
XOM (2026-08-18)7.5/10+10.8%On Track
DG (2026-09-25)7/10+0.0%On Track
COST (2026-09-25)6.8/10+0.0%On Track
Euro Only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$121086.29
Cash
$16933.31
P&L
$21086.29 (+21.09%)
Realized P&L
$-42835.98
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
ActionTickerQtyStatus
BuyKCR.HE10.77dispatched
Current Holdings
⚠ Live EU quotes degraded today — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702$23967.39—
TTE.PA ×364$26944.15—
UNA.AS ×48.5$2832.95—
RR.L ×101$1460.08—
VIE.PA ×48.5$1430.88—
GLE.PA ×22.15$1755.04—
MNDI.L ×158$1402.26—
NWG.L ×191$1346.17—
+42 more holdings
Track Record 51 On Track · 2 Lagging
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
ABN.AS (2026-08-24)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
ADYEN.AS (2026-09-03)7/10+0.0%On Track
AIR.PA (2026-09-08)7/10+0.0%On Track
ALV.DE (2026-08-29)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
ASML.AS (2026-08-30)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
BAB.L (2026-09-16)7.3/10+0.0%On Track
BAVA.CO (2026-08-23)7/10+0.0%On Track
BP.L (2026-09-12)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
DEME.BR (2026-08-27)7/10+0.0%On Track
DTE.DE (2026-09-04)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
ENI.MI (2026-09-02)7/10+0.0%On Track
ENR.DE (2026-09-01)7/10+0.0%On Track
EOAN.DE (2026-08-27)7/10+0.0%On Track
EUROB.AT (2026-09-07)7/10+0.0%On Track
EVD.DE (2026-08-22)7/10+0.0%On Track
EXENS.PA (2026-09-17)7.5/10+4.0%On Track
FGR.PA (2026-08-28)6/10+0.0%On Track
FLS.CO (2026-08-21)6/10+0.0%On Track
GSK.L (2026-09-15)7/10+0.0%On Track
INW.MI (2026-08-26)7/10+0.0%On Track
ISP.MI (2026-09-11)6.7/10+0.0%On Track
IVG.MI (2026-09-05)7.5/10+0.0%On Track
KGX.DE (2026-09-09)7/10+0.0%On Track
KIE.L (2026-09-15)7/10+0.0%On Track
LR.PA (2026-08-31)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
MSLH.L (2026-08-11)6/10+0.0%On Track
MT.AS (2026-09-06)7/10+0.0%On Track
NDX1.DE (2026-09-08)6.8/10+0.0%On Track
NOVN.SW (2026-09-13)6.2/10+0.0%On Track
NSIS-B.CO (2026-08-21)7/10+0.0%On Track
PUB.PA (2026-09-04)7/10+0.0%On Track
REP.MC (2026-09-02)7/10+0.0%On Track
RIO.L (2026-09-10)7/10+0.0%On Track
RWE.DE (2026-09-03)7/10+0.0%On Track
SAN.MC (2026-09-08)6.5/10+0.0%On Track
SAP.DE (2026-08-30)7/10+0.0%On Track
SHEL.L (2026-08-22)6/10+1.2%On Track
SHL.DE (2026-08-24)7/10+0.0%On Track
SIE.DE (2026-08-29)7/10+0.0%On Track
SOI.PA (2026-09-17)6.8/10-0.5%Lagging
SU.PA (2026-08-31)7/10+0.0%On Track
TEF.MC (2026-09-07)7/10+0.0%On Track
TKA.DE (2026-09-06)7.5/10+0.0%On Track
TTE.PA (2026-09-01)7/10-1.9%Lagging
TTE.PA (2026-09-14)7.3/10+0.0%On Track
VOD.L (2026-09-05)7/10+0.0%On Track
DRX.L (2026-09-18)7/10+0.0%On Track
NXT.L (2026-09-18)7.3/10+0.0%On Track
ORSTED.CO (2026-09-19)6.8/10+0.0%On Track
GLE.PA (2026-09-21)6.7/10+1.5%On Track
BEZ.DE (2026-09-21)7/10+21.9%On Track
SAN.MC (2026-09-23)7/10+0.0%On Track
KCR.HE (2026-09-25)7.3/10+0.0%On Track
Penny Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578$3755.55—
PYPD ×1564$6940.50—
STXS ×2738$3557.21—
Track Record 4 On Track
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
BFRI (2026-09-09)5/10+0.0%On Track
INO (2026-08-24)4.5/10+0.0%On Track
OTLK (2026-09-09)4/10+0.0%On Track
PYPD (2026-08-19)6.5/10+6.1%On Track
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$35000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65$25000.00—
IEF ×108$10000.00—
DBC ×654$20000.00—
SPLV ×132$10000.00—
Trend Follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$75717.93
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86$5539.52—
SMH ×5.03$2990.61—
XLV ×30.27$5207.77—
XBI ×32$5207.77—
XLB ×93.53$4954.78—
Track Record 5 On Track · 5 Lagging
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
ITA (2026-08-21)4/10-5.8%Lagging
QQQ (2026-09-07)3/10+0.0%On Track
SMH (2026-09-09)4.5/10+0.0%On Track
XBI (2026-08-23)8/10-1.4%Lagging
XLB (2026-08-23)8/10-3.1%Lagging
XLE (2026-08-23)8/10+2.6%On Track
XLF (2026-09-08)6/10+0.0%On Track
XLK (2026-09-08)6/10+0.0%On Track
XLRE (2026-08-20)6.5/10-2.6%Lagging
XLV (2026-08-23)8/10-4.3%Lagging
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$26717.65
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
USO ×206$26795.83—
GLD ×30.1$11738.20—
CPER ×150$5929.12—
SLV ×93.58$5545.24—
PPLT ×66.63$1111.38—
BNO ×35.14$1850.57—
URA ×23.16$1066.93—
UGA ×26.78$3377.87—
+11 more holdings
Track Record 7 On Track · 15 Lagging · 2 Stopped Out
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
BNO (2026-09-07)7/10+8.0%On Track
CANE (2026-09-06)6.5/10-3.2%Lagging
COPX (2026-09-08)7/10-3.7%Lagging
CORN (2026-08-31)7/10-1.3%Lagging
CPER (2026-09-09)7/10-1.9%Lagging
GDX (2026-09-04)7/10-5.9%Lagging
GLD (2026-08-30)5/10-1.9%Lagging
LIT (2026-08-24)6.5/10-8.0%Lagging
PALL (2026-08-30)4/10-8.1%Stopped Out
PPLT (2026-09-05)7/10-1.1%Lagging
SIL (2026-09-04)6.5/10-6.1%Lagging
SLV (2026-09-01)6.5/10-0.5%Lagging
SLX (2026-09-07)6.5/10-4.4%Lagging
SOYB (2026-08-30)6.5/10+1.8%On Track
UGA (2026-09-06)7/10+9.0%On Track
UNG (2026-09-03)6.5/10+6.4%On Track
UNG (2026-09-15)6.9/10+6.4%On Track
URA (2026-09-05)7/10-9.6%Stopped Out
USO (2026-09-09)6.3/10+6.3%On Track
USO (2026-09-15)7.2/10+6.3%On Track
WEAT (2026-08-30)7.5/10-0.9%Lagging
WEAT (2026-09-17)6.8/10-0.9%Lagging
CPER (2026-09-18)6.8/10-1.9%Lagging
SLV (2026-09-19)7/10-0.5%Lagging
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$32370.73
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live quotes degraded — every position below is priced at cost, not a fresh quote.
PositionValueUnrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5510$35015.45—
ETH-USD ×14.91$28949.67—
SOL-USD ×26.81$2795.91—
XRP-USD ×628$868.24—
Track Record 2 On Track · 4 Lagging
PositionConviction Then Return SinceVerdict
BTC (2026-08-11)6/10+0.0%On Track
BTC-USD (2026-09-09)7/10-3.0%Lagging
ETH (2026-08-11)5/10+0.0%On Track
ETH-USD (2026-09-09)5.8/10-3.0%Lagging
SOL-USD (2026-08-30)6.5/10-1.4%Lagging
XRP-USD (2026-08-29)6/10-6.3%Lagging
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +62.70%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
duration
Duration is the bond’s price sensitivity to a 1-point move in yields, stated in years.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures

General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.

Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.

Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.

Morning Alpha • Generated Fri, 25 Sep 2026 07:22:00 GMT • info@gmc-works.com